• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Jeff Gundlach Live Webcast On "The Decline And Fall Of The Roman Empire"

Tyler Durden's picture


The defining soundbite from the call Q&A: Regarding Bank of America - "It is wise to avoid banks. Not surprised BAC has gone up - just like NFLX - just like Italian bonds. Reduce risk right now, including, Bank of America."

While the star of multibillionaire Bill Gross may or may not be fading (the jury is still out on what the final outcome will be for the man who so far alone among his peers has dared to point out the lunacy in the Fed's actions), that of his far smaller and nimbler peer Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital has been rising rapidly, and at last check has his fund's AUMs at over $25 billion, a doubling in a few short months. Gundlach is conducting his periodic webcast live at 4:15pm Eastern (i.e., now) at the link below. Anyone can join in. And by the title of the presentaiton, it promises to be quite interesting.

Click on the following Link for webcast or the image below.

We will post the full presentation shortly, but here is one of the more telling charts:

And another: it's all downhill from here, as we pointed out first recently when doing our update on the Citi econ surprises chart.

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Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:23 | 2159198 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Oops. What link? Thanks.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | 2159216 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

The Roman Empire did not "fall"


It had the carpet yanked out from under its feet.


And when you have feet of clay, it's hard to maintain your footing.


(This is sounding eerily familiar).

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:30 | 2159253 redpill
redpill's picture

I'm starting to think we are victims of propaganda.  They've been telling us for how long North Korea is a closed society?  And shit, just today I come across Youtube of them Party Rocking.


That would have been a great superbowl halftime show, look at that goose-steppin!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:57 | 2159362 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Everyday I'm Kim Jong Illin'.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:00 | 2159372 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Florida 2011 foreclosure rate 11.9%

My brain simply cannot comprehend that more one in ten homes in Florida were foreclosed on last year.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:22 | 2159456 xela2200
xela2200's picture

A lot of condos at the beach and in the downtown area.

There is a brand new McMansion near my house that looks just like the one in the picture. Nobody has EVER lived in the property since it was built 4 years ago.

The properties that can be priced based on rental income are holding their value (townhouse, condos, etc). For now.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 03:57 | 2160855 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Roman Empire is still falling......Italy finally may be kicked out of G8,7,6....


British Empire still falling....


America was built over 300 years..... it will take a while for America to fall out....but opportunity cost may increase as other nation-states offer better deal.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 19:01 | 2159638 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Incredible -- indeed, a foreclosure rate of 11.9% is nearly one in eight.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:11 | 2159410 Blotsky
Blotsky's picture

Add some iron to the mix and you have a less than desirable outcome.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:27 | 2159229 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Everybody knows the dice are loaded. And the ship is leaking - http://hedge.ly/q21PKC

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:18 | 2159445 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Lets make sure America doesn't become the next Rome. Support Ron pauls money bomb today! He is the only one that can stop the down fall!



Tue, 02/14/2012 - 19:43 | 2159772 Fred Garvin
Fred Garvin's picture

Exactly 3:00 into the clip...says it all!


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:23 | 2159204 resurger
resurger's picture

Reminds me of MuthaFucking Global

by Hoskin

Rome. It got started and we know it became great and then the bankers came in. And these were the same bankers that had come into Egypt and had taken over Egypt earlier in history. They took over Rome and one of the first things they did was run the farmers out of business. Because a farmer who produces his own food and through his cottage industry raises everything he needs doesn't need anything else or anybody. He's self-sufficient. So the first thing the bankers did was to go after the self-sufficient farms. The countryside was soon deserted but the city of Rome was almost a million people.

Then the taxes started. There's nothing too good for the political leaders. You could hire a Roman army and with that army go in and whip another province or country and rule that country for a year or two and then you had to turn it over to the Roman government. But during that year or two everything that you got out of that country was yours. If you were a banker and could afford to hire a Roman army, in many cases it was really worth it.

It ended up with only five banking families owning all of Rome. Where were the Romans? They had moved out because the taxes they had to pay were unbearable. Each child that was born was taxed and since the girl babies produced less than the boy babies, they left the girl babies out in the open to die of exposure. At the time of Jesus there were more Greeks and Greek slaves being buried in Roman cemeteries than there were Romans. There were almost no Romans left in Italy. They had gone to North Africa, Spain and France and all over the place. For armies the Romans had to hire Germans, Syrians and soldiers from all over.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:32 | 2159263 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

reusurger, that's what I read also. Many farmers actually welcomed the "barbarians" with open arms since they abolished taxes and encourages farmers to do what they do best....farm and sell their crops in the market at market price.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:50 | 2159329 Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

Then I be barbarian

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:52 | 2159339 CH1
CH1's picture

My findings also.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:58 | 2159363 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

of course any once prosperous place is usually left with the ruling elite in shambles while the oppressed are the ones who fled.  Mobility and the ability to extricate oneself from oppression is a hallmark of the downtrodden. Just like unicorn piss is the fuel of the future.


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:08 | 2159401 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

They estimate that agricultural productivity fell 80% under the Empire, but was as productive as pre-empire once freed from the empire's control.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:16 | 2159434 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

So they said during the dark ages the farms were 4times as productive as under the empire.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 01:59 | 2160749 socalat_Kruger's
socalat_Kruger's's picture

the roman empire was a ponzi scheme. conquest brought slaves, wealth and land. this funded further armies to conquer more lands etc. like all ponzi schemes all was well as long as the empire continued to grow. as soon as it stopped growing the cycle was broken and the ponzi scheme fell over. growth problems started much earlier then some might think: specifically the battle of teutoburg forest where the germans kicked some latin ass.

trajan gave expansion another go - this time in mesopotamia.. he invaded iraq, this ended up just bleeding men and money.

so how do you maintain the ponzi if you aren't growing your real economy? quantitive easing! they debased the currency by the minting of coins with less and less gold and silver content...



there could be no middle class recovery as the middle class had already been destroyed through land conviscation and 'labour outsourcing' (slave labour)

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | 2159206 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:24 | 2159208 Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

linkie no workie

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | 2159212 Bob
Bob's picture

Damn, I was all over that.  Link problem . . .

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:27 | 2159214 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Madonna hired about 200 unemployed Roman Empire slaves to tow her barge in during the SuperBowl...




Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | 2159215 Bárðarbunga
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An error occured processing your request. Please close your web browser and try again.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:28 | 2159234 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Probably have to give us the presentation number?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:30 | 2159246 Beard of Zeus
Beard of Zeus's picture

When reporting the problem, please note reference # 61659

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:34 | 2159248 carbonmutant
Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:42 | 2159302 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:31 | 2159250 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

OT: who has two thumbs and owns a shit ton of apple and is up more than 100%? answer: (my thumbs pointing towards me) this guy

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:53 | 2159346 CH1
CH1's picture

Stay ready to sell and short, my friend.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:50 | 2159287 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Great slide presentation....

Too bad we can't post graphics.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:38 | 2159290 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roPnQjB5EEg This is way beyond par for the MADonna Halftime


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:40 | 2159294 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What happens when the stimulus ends...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:44 | 2159310 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

There will be less resources in the world as US citizens will have swallowed anything they got against their bitcoins.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:52 | 2159343 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

That was the topic of one of the slides...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:45 | 2159313 JR
JR's picture

The United States and European Union are suffering the same tyranny.

The political leaders in Greece who voted for this latest bailout of the bankers’ euro zone, sacrificing the welfare of their people, remind one of the American Congress and the administration, working with the private bankers to sacrifice the well being, prosperity and future of the American people.

The Greek people asked for this punishment no more than Americans asked to have their country tyrannized and ravaged by a private banking cartel, no more than Americans asked to be ruled by Obama, or the people who took our currency and used it for their own personal wealth.

To understand the profound impact of America’s founding and her Constitution on freedom and the fulfillment of the American economic dream, it is imperative to listen to Daniel Hannan’s speech this past weekend at CPAC 2012, “God Bless the Alliance of Free English-Speaking Nations”.

Hannan, a member of the European Parliament, notes how Europe is rushing toward statist overreach with America not now far behind:

“We are screeching toward the cliff, and a couple of us…are trying to jam the brakes on while there’s still time. And we look up into the rear-view mirror, and what do we see? We see you, trying to overtake us!”

In a review of Hannan’s speech,,Bill Hobbs writes that while advocating  " ... small government, big citizen ...", Hannan told the CPAC Republicans:

"Honour the vision of your Founders, cleave to the most divine Constitution devised by human intelligence. Don't be the generation that cuts itself off from the wisdom of your fathers and disinherit your children. Never be afraid to speak to and for the soul of this nation of which, by good fortune and God's grace, you are privileged to be part.

 “To see what makes the US constitution special just look at the others.”

Said Hobbs, “Hannan said that the UK has ceased to be a democracy and ceded its sovereignty to the EU.  He noted the similarities of Thomas Jefferson’s grievances to King George in the Declaration of the Independence to the criticisms of the EU.

In short, according to Hannan (and reality), destroy America’s Constitution and America will become less prosperous, less independent, less Democratic, and less free as have the European nations who have been on a quick march to socialism for many years, while openly socialist nations such as Greece are now bankrupt…


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:13 | 2159421 Bob
Bob's picture

Honour the vision of your Founders, cleave to the most divine Constitution devised by human intelligence. Don't be the generation that cuts itself off from the wisdom of your fathers and disinherit your children. Never be afraid to speak to and for the soul of this nation of which, by good fortune and God's grace, you are privileged to be part.

 To see what makes the US constitution special just look at the others.

WTF?! It sounds like a mystical incantation. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:37 | 2159548 JR
JR's picture

I don’t think he was talking to you, because if significant reforms are to be taken, they will be taken by people who know what Mr. Hannan is talking about.


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 20:27 | 2159922 Bob
Bob's picture

That's what worries me, JR.  Arguments should be made in standard terms subject to reasoned evaluation, it seems to me. 

I have to drink koolaid to get it?  Just sayin, man. 

Peace Out, JR.  :)


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 23:21 | 2160436 JR
JR's picture

Bob, make that Maker’s Mark and we can wax poetic even better than a poet’s poet or Hannan or even James Madison. Interesting that the Founding Fathers did not want or anticipate political parties, believing they would only destroy representative government, representing only narrow interests and eschewing the common good.

Thomas Jefferson swore, "If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all."

To paraphrase Hannan using John Quincy Adams: “We soon concluded that aristocracy, feudality, nobility, could not be reconciled with a Government founded upon rights." – 1795

And with respect to John Quincy, nor with international bankers who know no fatherland and respect the rights of no man or government.

Peace, partner. Always enjoy our debates.


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:27 | 2159493 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

You should overlay Hanna's speech with the one by Ginsburg saying that we shouldn't look to our constitution, but newer ones like South Africa! WTF si up with that?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:51 | 2159336 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I'm pretty sure he's spelling the word "Roman" thus:


The Decline and Fall of the American Empire!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:03 | 2159380 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Maybe he means just his balance sheet.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:54 | 2159352 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Did Gundlach anticipate yet another world record closing high for the XRT today?


Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:16 | 2159419 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Robo, i'll give you 10/10 for persistence despite almost always being wrong ..have you thought about doing PR for Paul Krugman?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:46 | 2159578 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

"World record" - you sound like a major douche.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:51 | 2159597 akak
akak's picture

I hear the stock market in Weimar Germany had "world record breaking" closes just about every day for a couple of years, too.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:57 | 2159366 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Hmm. I'd be interested in those slides / a recording.


Many people get the "Fall of the Roman Empire" so wrong, it'd be instructive to see if he knows his history (which he should, if managing $25bil).

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:02 | 2159376 wavegenius
wavegenius's picture

Top 5 best and 5 worst elliotticians in the world



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