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Jeff Gundlach Live Webcast On "The Decline And Fall Of The Roman Empire"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The defining soundbite from the call Q&A: Regarding Bank of America - "It is wise to avoid banks. Not surprised BAC has gone up - just like NFLX - just like Italian bonds. Reduce risk right now, including, Bank of America."

While the star of multibillionaire Bill Gross may or may not be fading (the jury is still out on what the final outcome will be for the man who so far alone among his peers has dared to point out the lunacy in the Fed's actions), that of his far smaller and nimbler peer Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital has been rising rapidly, and at last check has his fund's AUMs at over $25 billion, a doubling in a few short months. Gundlach is conducting his periodic webcast live at 4:15pm Eastern (i.e., now) at the link below. Anyone can join in. And by the title of the presentaiton, it promises to be quite interesting.

Click on the following Link for webcast or the image below.

We will post the full presentation shortly, but here is one of the more telling charts:

And another: it's all downhill from here, as we pointed out first recently when doing our update on the Citi econ surprises chart.

 


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Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment CClarity
CClarity's picture

Oops. What link? Thanks.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

The Roman Empire did not "fall"

 

It had the carpet yanked out from under its feet.

 

And when you have feet of clay, it's hard to maintain your footing.

 

(This is sounding eerily familiar).

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

I'm starting to think we are victims of propaganda.  They've been telling us for how long North Korea is a closed society?  And shit, just today I come across Youtube of them Party Rocking.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJNBfBr-OGU

That would have been a great superbowl halftime show, look at that goose-steppin!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Everyday I'm Kim Jong Illin'.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Florida 2011 foreclosure rate 11.9%

My brain simply cannot comprehend that more one in ten homes in Florida were foreclosed on last year.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

A lot of condos at the beach and in the downtown area.

There is a brand new McMansion near my house that looks just like the one in the picture. Nobody has EVER lived in the property since it was built 4 years ago.

The properties that can be priced based on rental income are holding their value (townhouse, condos, etc). For now.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 03:57 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Roman Empire is still falling......Italy finally may be kicked out of G8,7,6....

 

British Empire still falling....

 

America was built over 300 years..... it will take a while for America to fall out....but opportunity cost may increase as other nation-states offer better deal.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 19:01 | Link to Comment Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Incredible -- indeed, a foreclosure rate of 11.9% is nearly one in eight.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Blotsky
Blotsky's picture

Add some iron to the mix and you have a less than desirable outcome.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Everybody knows the dice are loaded. And the ship is leaking - http://hedge.ly/q21PKC

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:18 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Lets make sure America doesn't become the next Rome. Support Ron pauls money bomb today! He is the only one that can stop the down fall!

 

http://ronpaul2012blog.blogspot.com/

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment Fred Garvin
Fred Garvin's picture

Exactly 3:00 into the clip...says it all!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ7jHHC2bvg&feature=related

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Reminds me of MuthaFucking Global

by Hoskin

Rome. It got started and we know it became great and then the bankers came in. And these were the same bankers that had come into Egypt and had taken over Egypt earlier in history. They took over Rome and one of the first things they did was run the farmers out of business. Because a farmer who produces his own food and through his cottage industry raises everything he needs doesn't need anything else or anybody. He's self-sufficient. So the first thing the bankers did was to go after the self-sufficient farms. The countryside was soon deserted but the city of Rome was almost a million people.

Then the taxes started. There's nothing too good for the political leaders. You could hire a Roman army and with that army go in and whip another province or country and rule that country for a year or two and then you had to turn it over to the Roman government. But during that year or two everything that you got out of that country was yours. If you were a banker and could afford to hire a Roman army, in many cases it was really worth it.

It ended up with only five banking families owning all of Rome. Where were the Romans? They had moved out because the taxes they had to pay were unbearable. Each child that was born was taxed and since the girl babies produced less than the boy babies, they left the girl babies out in the open to die of exposure. At the time of Jesus there were more Greeks and Greek slaves being buried in Roman cemeteries than there were Romans. There were almost no Romans left in Italy. They had gone to North Africa, Spain and France and all over the place. For armies the Romans had to hire Germans, Syrians and soldiers from all over.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

reusurger, that's what I read also. Many farmers actually welcomed the "barbarians" with open arms since they abolished taxes and encourages farmers to do what they do best....farm and sell their crops in the market at market price.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

Then I be barbarian

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

My findings also.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

of course any once prosperous place is usually left with the ruling elite in shambles while the oppressed are the ones who fled.  Mobility and the ability to extricate oneself from oppression is a hallmark of the downtrodden. Just like unicorn piss is the fuel of the future.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

They estimate that agricultural productivity fell 80% under the Empire, but was as productive as pre-empire once freed from the empire's control.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

So they said during the dark ages the farms were 4times as productive as under the empire.

 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 01:59 | Link to Comment socalat_Kruger's
socalat_Kruger's's picture

the roman empire was a ponzi scheme. conquest brought slaves, wealth and land. this funded further armies to conquer more lands etc. like all ponzi schemes all was well as long as the empire continued to grow. as soon as it stopped growing the cycle was broken and the ponzi scheme fell over. growth problems started much earlier then some might think: specifically the battle of teutoburg forest where the germans kicked some latin ass.

trajan gave expansion another go - this time in mesopotamia.. he invaded iraq, this ended up just bleeding men and money.

so how do you maintain the ponzi if you aren't growing your real economy? quantitive easing! they debased the currency by the minting of coins with less and less gold and silver content...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_the_Roman_Empire#Michael_Rostovtzeff.2C_Ludwig_von_Mises.2C_and_Bruce_Bartlett

http://mises.org/daily/3663

there could be no middle class recovery as the middle class had already been destroyed through land conviscation and 'labour outsourcing' (slave labour)

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Dupe

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

linkie no workie

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Damn, I was all over that.  Link problem . . .

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Madonna hired about 200 unemployed Roman Empire slaves to tow her barge in during the SuperBowl...

BULLISH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_mJZP0OUI4

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Bárðarbunga
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An error occured processing your request. Please close your web browser and try again.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Probably have to give us the presentation number?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Beard of Zeus
Beard of Zeus's picture

When reporting the problem, please note reference # 61659

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thanks.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

OT: who has two thumbs and owns a shit ton of apple and is up more than 100%? answer: (my thumbs pointing towards me) this guy

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Stay ready to sell and short, my friend.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Great slide presentation....

Too bad we can't post graphics.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roPnQjB5EEg This is way beyond par for the MADonna Halftime

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What happens when the stimulus ends...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

There will be less resources in the world as US citizens will have swallowed anything they got against their bitcoins.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

That was the topic of one of the slides...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

The United States and European Union are suffering the same tyranny.

The political leaders in Greece who voted for this latest bailout of the bankers’ euro zone, sacrificing the welfare of their people, remind one of the American Congress and the administration, working with the private bankers to sacrifice the well being, prosperity and future of the American people.

The Greek people asked for this punishment no more than Americans asked to have their country tyrannized and ravaged by a private banking cartel, no more than Americans asked to be ruled by Obama, or the people who took our currency and used it for their own personal wealth.

To understand the profound impact of America’s founding and her Constitution on freedom and the fulfillment of the American economic dream, it is imperative to listen to Daniel Hannan’s speech this past weekend at CPAC 2012, “God Bless the Alliance of Free English-Speaking Nations”.

Hannan, a member of the European Parliament, notes how Europe is rushing toward statist overreach with America not now far behind:

“We are screeching toward the cliff, and a couple of us…are trying to jam the brakes on while there’s still time. And we look up into the rear-view mirror, and what do we see? We see you, trying to overtake us!”

In a review of Hannan’s speech,,Bill Hobbs writes that while advocating  " ... small government, big citizen ...", Hannan told the CPAC Republicans:

"Honour the vision of your Founders, cleave to the most divine Constitution devised by human intelligence. Don't be the generation that cuts itself off from the wisdom of your fathers and disinherit your children. Never be afraid to speak to and for the soul of this nation of which, by good fortune and God's grace, you are privileged to be part.

 “To see what makes the US constitution special just look at the others.”

Said Hobbs, “Hannan said that the UK has ceased to be a democracy and ceded its sovereignty to the EU.  He noted the similarities of Thomas Jefferson’s grievances to King George in the Declaration of the Independence to the criticisms of the EU.

In short, according to Hannan (and reality), destroy America’s Constitution and America will become less prosperous, less independent, less Democratic, and less free as have the European nations who have been on a quick march to socialism for many years, while openly socialist nations such as Greece are now bankrupt…

http://cpac2012.conservative.org/european-parliament-member-daniel-hannan-urges-america-to-turn-back-from-following-eus-disastrous-path/1162/

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Honour the vision of your Founders, cleave to the most divine Constitution devised by human intelligence. Don't be the generation that cuts itself off from the wisdom of your fathers and disinherit your children. Never be afraid to speak to and for the soul of this nation of which, by good fortune and God's grace, you are privileged to be part.

 To see what makes the US constitution special just look at the others.

WTF?! It sounds like a mystical incantation. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

I don’t think he was talking to you, because if significant reforms are to be taken, they will be taken by people who know what Mr. Hannan is talking about.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

That's what worries me, JR.  Arguments should be made in standard terms subject to reasoned evaluation, it seems to me. 

I have to drink koolaid to get it?  Just sayin, man. 

Peace Out, JR.  :)

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 23:21 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Bob, make that Maker’s Mark and we can wax poetic even better than a poet’s poet or Hannan or even James Madison. Interesting that the Founding Fathers did not want or anticipate political parties, believing they would only destroy representative government, representing only narrow interests and eschewing the common good.

Thomas Jefferson swore, "If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all."

To paraphrase Hannan using John Quincy Adams: “We soon concluded that aristocracy, feudality, nobility, could not be reconciled with a Government founded upon rights." – 1795

And with respect to John Quincy, nor with international bankers who know no fatherland and respect the rights of no man or government.

Peace, partner. Always enjoy our debates.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

You should overlay Hanna's speech with the one by Ginsburg saying that we shouldn't look to our constitution, but newer ones like South Africa! WTF si up with that?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

I'm pretty sure he's spelling the word "Roman" thus:

A-M-E-R-I-C-A-N

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Maybe he means just his balance sheet.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Did Gundlach anticipate yet another world record closing high for the XRT today?

LOL....

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Robo, i'll give you 10/10 for persistence despite almost always being wrong ..have you thought about doing PR for Paul Krugman?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

"World record" - you sound like a major douche.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I hear the stock market in Weimar Germany had "world record breaking" closes just about every day for a couple of years, too.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Hmm. I'd be interested in those slides / a recording.

 

Many people get the "Fall of the Roman Empire" so wrong, it'd be instructive to see if he knows his history (which he should, if managing $25bil).

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment wavegenius
wavegenius's picture

Top 5 best and 5 worst elliotticians in the world

 

http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/09/my-list-of-the-top-5-elliotticians-...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Jeff sounds like he's been reading zerohedge....??

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

One of his slides had a ZH attribution.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

All roads lead to Rome

"No man is entitled to freedom

unless he be vigilant in its preservation"

General Douglas MacArthur

 

All Roads Lead To Rome

 

Rome was a republic [pork barrel politics] instead of a democracy — Check

 

Weakening of the judicial system and the Senate by the emperors [oligarchs] — Check

 

Work for the government for higher wages and not be responsible for balance budgets — Check

 

So long the Empire prospered, its weaknesses were hidden. But, in the third century, the Empire was devastated by a fiscal crisis and by a lack of [and a devaluing] currency; its economy and government just start falling apart — Check

 

Army overstretched — Check

 

Some military wages [overtime anyone?] based on expanding territory — Check

 

Promises [unfunded] entitlements to silence and corrupt the women—even when they couldn't vote, get higher education, and were use to spread Roman pathetic lies and believes as they execute other “inferior” religions [Christians and Jews] — Check

 

Unfunded military pensions — Check

 

Debase of [the silver amount on] its “silver coins” money [Nixon 1971 ring a bell?] — Check

 

Its wealth citizens hiding [buried] the highest quality “silver-coins” in pots underground — Check

 

Slaves descended from debtors, weak religions such as Christianity and Judaism, and from prisoners of war — Check

 

Many became enormously wealthy as the result of bribes, fraud, or other forms of corruption by the Emperor they served — Check

 

Corruption and cronyism became so blunt that some Emperor’s equestrians became governors — Check

 

Around 241 AD the government employee’s wages and Rome’s finance costs bankrupted the whole empire — Check 

 

Because many Romans couldn’t afford to pay tax anymore, their “corrupted” government tried to seize their lands [foreclosure anyone?] — Check 

 

Then, as prices kept rising and shortages of food, especially grains became the routine, its people, the ones that couldn’t afford bread and taxes, rebelled in a civil war. Oops! You know how that end — Check 

 

The more the economy deteriorated, the more workers and their families sought “protection” in the government. Then, the government felt obliged to spent even more “in so few” what they couldn’t steal from the many— Check

 

Then, massive search for more silver [money/the coins back them] were tried. But the government kept spending more that the slaves could mine — Check

 

As these slaves and the coin’s shop that mint the money couldn’t please the monarchs anymore and they couldn’t  participate [have a cut of the] looting either, they rebelled and were “labeled” the Barbarians [occupied for tea anyone?] — Check

 

As these workers and youths, pardon me, Barbarians grew in size, the more the government fragmented. What came after the collapse of the Roman Empire was even worse than the Roman Empire itself. It became a total chaos — [to be] Check

 

Wonder why?

 

Because the “system” became totally depended on Imperial direction. Remember, by them, 2/3 [more than 200 million Americans] depended on the government one way or another. Once that was gone, these citizens didn’t know what to do.

 

The irony is; the chaos that came after lasted about as long as the Roma Empire itself.

 

 

And…, do you know what was the “main” causes for the “total” collapse of the Roma Empire?

 

Because the prosperity [back them by invasion and its taxes] ended before most of its citizens and some Emperors realized! I guess they didn’t have internet back them to warn the sheeple, pardon me, its citizens…., in advance.

 

Then, the non-payment of debt trigged desperation. The Empire didn’t have the “printed” money like [Germany 1930’s], manufactured-credit-speculation [U.S. currently], Japan carry-trade, and China labor and environment burglary.

 

Back them Romans had to rely on looting other territories or on silver that the slaves couldn’t mined fast enough—so prices [speculation] start rising above what Romans could afford, thus causing drop in demand that led to shortages and hoarding in hope of higher prices later on. Where do I see this [physical] behavior lately? Anyway — Check

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Excellent work.

Code words in modern vernacular= Complex Social Structure.

Think one can will find this as a common trait in empire failing and it seems to be wholly a function of the government.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 02:09 | Link to Comment socalat_Kruger's
socalat_Kruger's's picture

i agree - superb

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment moondog
moondog's picture

I love this comparison. I have been seeing it myself in recent history.

Mankind as a whole never learns the lessons of history.

Historical amnesia of the plebes leads to the misery of our species.

The barbarians are at the gate.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment MayerRothschild
MayerRothschild's picture

Debase of [the silver amount on] its “silver coins” money [Nixon 1971 ring a bell?]  

 

Go back to '65... In '64 some of the U.S. money was still mainly silver.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

there's MANY Empires falling around the globe, not just the usual suspects

The Taliban, who are impossible to beat on home turf (Russia sent packing, shortly the Anglo-Cowboys too), have just told Afghan President Kairzi to take a long walk off a short pier

The Taliban "will not negotiate with a US puppet" ...if only American voters woke up and stopped voting for puppets we might see some global progress

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

Gross is a multi-billionaire?   Allianz must have upped their 401Ks......

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

This article reminds me that Obama is the biggest spender in the history of the world. Obama has nothing on those guys except gross lack of style.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Wikipedia:

This slow decline occurred over a period of four centuries, culminating on September 4, 476, when Romulus Augustus, the last Emporer of the Western Roman Empire, was deposed by Odoacer, a Germanic chieftain.

Hmm...

...here we go again...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

What the fuck do I need a magic password to get this magic link?

What, you got me on the pay no mind list kid?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:40 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Average compensation"...exactly how many greeters and toilet scrubbers do you believe are employed by the government?

Apples. Oranges. Weak sauce either way.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 19:35 | Link to Comment mamg
mamg's picture

Things have changed quite a bit over the centuries...

They were riding on chariot during warfare... whereas the F-15 has a top speed of Mach 2.5
They did not have satellite GPS, fibre optic, space shuttle...
They did not have scanners that rape you at the airports; nor they have ~$20 Trillion worth of public debt. 

Talking of shrinking on packages, they're now selling cigarettes in "Shorten" version for health reason... they used to give you 100s for bargain.  Well, the bottom line is - let's see how long this trick could last. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 20:48 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

J6P will never support Ron Paul. They say he's strange. They will go for self-destruct button #1 (Obama) or self destruct button #2 (GOP approved candidate). 

Bernake is the financial Dr Strangelove. Ride that printing press until it reaches critical mass.

 

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