Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises

Tyler Durden's picture

Typically limited to 90 second soundbite-gathering exercises on mainstream financial media, Australia's Finance News Network gives Jim Rogers the chance to discuss much more broadly his outlook not just for 2012 but beyond. Surprised by the false optimism he sees globally, he is not concerned that consensus is too bearish, and worries that the political pressure and central banker un-independence will inevitably lead to more and more money printing. We have discussed the kick-the-can thesis extensively but Rogers moves from the desire-to-print to the consequences while covering Ron Paul and the US election, the myth of government job creation, his potentially controversial view of the Euro (and separately the Euro-zone) - all the while reminding us that he expects at least another lost decade for the US and Europe as Japan ebbs ever lower. With a view to both his geographical location and his investments, the global commodity bull remains optimistic that a Chinese slowdown will not be the end of the Asian economy (as we see in Western economies) but is broadly short equities around the world while urging investors to own real assets. Summing up, Rogers notes "...the problems are going to continue to get worse until somebody solves the basic underlying problem of too much spending and too much debt... [governments and central bankers] are not going to do anything until there’s a serious crisis or semi-crisis."



Lelde Smits: OK Jim, so we’ve spoken about US and European debt, and a potential Chinese slowdown. How do you see global markets reacting in 2012?

Jim Rogers: Well I’m not optimistic for the most part about stock markets. I don’t own many stocks anywhere in the world. The only offset of the caveat for me is the fact that there is an election in the US, in Spain – sorry in France, a few other places. So whenever there are elections coming governments spend, spend, spend they throw money out the window to buy votes. So some people are going to be much better off in 2012. Is it enough to offset the world’s problems? I don’t think so, except in some sectors which will benefit.

So for myself, I’m short stocks around the world, I’m short American technology stocks, I’m short emerging market stocks and I’m short European stocks.

Lelde Smits: And what else are you buying Jim and why?

Jim Rogers: Well I own commodities, because if the world economy gets better Lelde, then commodities will do well because of the shortages. The lucky countries will continue to be lucky for a while. I own some currencies, which I mentioned, I’m worried about currency markets. I’m short stocks. I mentioned the things I’m short. So I anticipate problems in stock markets. If the world economy doesn’t get better, you’re not going to make money in stocks. But then central banks will print more money and when they print money Lelde, the thing to do is to own real assets.

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Outlaw Of The Wasteland's picture

mawia boddiwomo and joe kernen said this guy doesn't know what he's talking about.

WestVillageIdiot's picture

I can 't think of two people more qualifited to be experts on "not knowing what the fuck you are talking about".  I can't wait for the day that he takes a taxi cab through that gap in his teeth and her lips explode.  That will be a great day for humanity. 

vast-dom's picture

Too optimistic; more at, full spectrum crises with scattered glimmers of deluded optimism

DeeDeeTwo's picture

Jimmy has been saying the same things for 30 years. He just wears this year's Perma-Bear Clothing Line. He looks like he's in a cheap hotel in Saigon. Still Saigon. Must be broke. And notice those wicked Mandarin eyebrows he sports. Wonder if he forces his daughters to sculpt their eyebrows.

Freddie's picture


I hope Jim is well because the videos lately make him look ill.  This is a cheap web camera with no makeup but still.  He lived in Mahattan and a lot of the hospitals there are shit but Singapore does not look to good for his health.

BTW - I would do the smarmy Aussie chick.

IBelieveInMagic's picture

Just another parasite preaching...

FoieGras's picture

Taxes will be raised. Everywhere. US, UK, France, Germany etc. Until 2010 I see taxes gobble up an additional of 3-4% of personal spending in the G10.

WestVillageIdiot's picture

Yep.  It's not that governments will wait for crises to do something.  They will wait for crises and then do all of the worst things.  They will raise taxes.  They will make people with earned wealth seem like villains.  They will preach that more government is the solution to our problems.  In short, they will take any fucked up situation and they will fuck it up even worse.  Just look at what these demons did in 2008i.  They pursued not one long-term idea. 

I think 2012 will be more look 2008.  It seems that 2011 was a lot like 2007.  Who can forget how many things were blowing up in 2007 ("subprime crisis") but didn't turn into full on disasters for more than a year.  It seems like we had a lot of precursors to disaster in 2011 just like we did in 2007. 

Good luck to all.  Merry Christmas and make sure you have a happy new year.  I have heard several friends bitch about how bad 2011 was.  Of course they are the ones that continue to not plan for anything, not save for anything and blame others for their misfortune.  Something tells me they won't like 2012 any better than 2011. 

cossack55's picture

Gubmints don't wait for crises, gubmints cause crises.

Temporalist's picture

What are you talking about?  They almost discussed reducing debt by $1 Trillion over 10 years...or so...maybe.

malek's picture

You mean the current government decided that the next one has to lower spending and/or increase taxes?

macholatte's picture





Sudden Debt's picture

Real assets... Please somebody remind me?

Real Estate Geek's picture

That Lelde Smits would be a good asset to have.  Seems on the ball and is smokin' hott.  Even if she's not as bright as she seems, you could turn her out and she'd still be a real money-maker.  That looks like $10K/night tail.


SAT 800's picture

She hypnotized me; whatever they're paying her, they're getting a bargain. It would be impossible to watch the competing channel. She's welcome to $5,000 if she wants to spend the night at my house and do a little play acting. What a surreal Fox.

PulauHantu29's picture

She is out of your league...she'll nab some CEO of Billionaire Hedge Fund manager (if she's smart).

Hober Mallow's picture

Nice chick, sounds stupid though, but hey, she might do the panting better.

Would change those clothes too.

JPM Hater001's picture

Ok I'm ready for my interview...

What you you guys all looking at me for?

natty light's picture

True, but it sounded like annoying canned questioning. 

infinity8's picture

Yeah, to me it looked and sounded like they couldn't set up a real-time interview so her questions were pre-recorded and his answers were spliced sliced and diced. Still good, but why?

infinity8's picture

and her weird outline - she's dropped in on top of some place she's not. They can't come up with a decent room/set to record her in?

Hober Mallow's picture

Questions were written by Rogers and enunciated by the chick.

hayesy316's picture

Aussie girls. You're welcome, world.

Tapeworm's picture

Why is about slutty sex? Her interview hit the points with no appreciable BS. The interviewee seemed to be at ease with the manner of the pointed questions and came out with an informative piece within the time allowed.

 My guess from her name is that she is a displaced Afrikaans speaking South African, or her family was.

 I'll give her a solid plus vote for doing her job very well and being easy on the eyes.

jez's picture

Underneath the Aussie drawl, I can definitely hear a Sarth Effrican accent in there. Or maybe Zimbabwe. That part of the world, anyway.


Hey -- if she'd emigrated to the US instead of Australia, could she be correctly described as an African-American?

WestVillageIdiot's picture

Real assets? 

Friends, health, happiness.  I also enjoy good liquor, good food and sleep.  Everything else is just something to facilitate the acquisition of these things. 

I am guessing you are doing alright, Sudden.  Some of my happiest moments in life were finding out how much I loved Leffe Blonde while in Paris a few years back.  I am sure you can relate.  Now go have a good piece of chocolate and be grateful for the ability to wave your arms like a maniac while screaming at the top of your lungs. 

WonderDawg's picture

It's interesting to think that one day in the not too distant future, a hot shower on a winter day would be regarded as a luxury. Not saying it will turn out that way, but the thought has crossed my mind.

akak's picture

Instead of, say, the once-a-week chore that a shower is regarded in Germany today?

Uchtdorf's picture

I resemble that remark.

akak's picture

You mean you resemble that aroma, jawohl?

Cheese: it's not just for breakfast anymore.

SAT 800's picture

Silver. Silver is a real asset. There you go.

Sudden Debt's picture

YEAH! The rest is kind of slow today....

fonzanoon's picture

Does he still own the USD?

FoieGras's picture

This interview could have been made 10 years ago. Is Rogers saying anything new at all? He can probably repeat the same old in 2020 and it will still be true.

e2thex's picture

This interview was originally done on a 78 which was transferred to a 33, then reel to reel, then a cassette, a CD and finally transferred to a flash.


Josh Randall's picture

that chick's a cutie

SAT 800's picture

Planning to watch this video another ten or twenty times; with the sound off.

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Jim may like Asia but he is still a gweilo.

Good interview though. Debt, debt and more debt. Solved by more debt. Take the pain? But there is still too much anesthetic in the system ...

Ok, don't raise taxes ... except as the Dollar Bill suggests for the fund managers and private equity guys and their 15% carried interest.

And no Steve, it is NOT like “It’s like when Hitler invaded Poland in 1939.” Steve Schwarzman of BlackStone fame and his many billions be damned.

Tsunami Wave's picture

Personally, putting on the youtube snowflake/snowing setting makes the interview more interesting and easier for me to digest this never-ending series of bad news.

toadold's picture

"I've been sitting around in my PJ's drinking cherry flavored diet Dr. Pepper and reading science fiction on my Kinde and I've noticed a lot of the villans are now described as "unelected bureaucrats"  who are vile and corrupt. Thank God it is only light fiction and not mirroring the real world.

LookingWithAmazement's picture

Wall Street green - #WhatCrisis?

WestVillageIdiot's picture

"I will take, 'Things people were saying in 2008' for $800, Alex"

akak's picture

" ... why don'tcha give me Ape Tit for $200."

Gringo Viejo's picture

Jimbo's porked up.

OldTrooper's picture

You never stop growing...but the direction changes with age.