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Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises
Typically limited to 90 second soundbite-gathering exercises on mainstream financial media, Australia's Finance News Network gives Jim Rogers the chance to discuss much more broadly his outlook not just for 2012 but beyond. Surprised by the false optimism he sees globally, he is not concerned that consensus is too bearish, and worries that the political pressure and central banker un-independence will inevitably lead to more and more money printing. We have discussed the kick-the-can thesis extensively but Rogers moves from the desire-to-print to the consequences while covering Ron Paul and the US election, the myth of government job creation, his potentially controversial view of the Euro (and separately the Euro-zone) - all the while reminding us that he expects at least another lost decade for the US and Europe as Japan ebbs ever lower. With a view to both his geographical location and his investments, the global commodity bull remains optimistic that a Chinese slowdown will not be the end of the Asian economy (as we see in Western economies) but is broadly short equities around the world while urging investors to own real assets. Summing up, Rogers notes "...the problems are going to continue to get worse until somebody solves the basic underlying problem of too much spending and too much debt... [governments and central bankers] are not going to do anything until there’s a serious crisis or semi-crisis."
Lelde Smits: OK Jim, so we’ve spoken about US and European debt, and a potential Chinese slowdown. How do you see global markets reacting in 2012?
Jim Rogers: Well I’m not optimistic for the most part about stock markets. I don’t own many stocks anywhere in the world. The only offset of the caveat for me is the fact that there is an election in the US, in Spain – sorry in France, a few other places. So whenever there are elections coming governments spend, spend, spend they throw money out the window to buy votes. So some people are going to be much better off in 2012. Is it enough to offset the world’s problems? I don’t think so, except in some sectors which will benefit.
So for myself, I’m short stocks around the world, I’m short American technology stocks, I’m short emerging market stocks and I’m short European stocks.
Lelde Smits: And what else are you buying Jim and why?
Jim Rogers: Well I own commodities, because if the world economy gets better Lelde, then commodities will do well because of the shortages. The lucky countries will continue to be lucky for a while. I own some currencies, which I mentioned, I’m worried about currency markets. I’m short stocks. I mentioned the things I’m short. So I anticipate problems in stock markets. If the world economy doesn’t get better, you’re not going to make money in stocks. But then central banks will print more money and when they print money Lelde, the thing to do is to own real assets.
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mawia boddiwomo and joe kernen said this guy doesn't know what he's talking about.
I can 't think of two people more qualifited to be experts on "not knowing what the fuck you are talking about". I can't wait for the day that he takes a taxi cab through that gap in his teeth and her lips explode. That will be a great day for humanity.
Too optimistic; more at, full spectrum crises with scattered glimmers of deluded optimism
Jimmy has been saying the same things for 30 years. He just wears this year's Perma-Bear Clothing Line. He looks like he's in a cheap hotel in Saigon. Still Saigon. Must be broke. And notice those wicked Mandarin eyebrows he sports. Wonder if he forces his daughters to sculpt their eyebrows.
LOL!
I hope Jim is well because the videos lately make him look ill. This is a cheap web camera with no makeup but still. He lived in Mahattan and a lot of the hospitals there are shit but Singapore does not look to good for his health.
BTW - I would do the smarmy Aussie chick.
Just another parasite preaching...
Someone different saying something pretty much the same
Taxes will be raised. Everywhere. US, UK, France, Germany etc. Until 2010 I see taxes gobble up an additional of 3-4% of personal spending in the G10.
Yep. It's not that governments will wait for crises to do something. They will wait for crises and then do all of the worst things. They will raise taxes. They will make people with earned wealth seem like villains. They will preach that more government is the solution to our problems. In short, they will take any fucked up situation and they will fuck it up even worse. Just look at what these demons did in 2008i. They pursued not one long-term idea.
I think 2012 will be more look 2008. It seems that 2011 was a lot like 2007. Who can forget how many things were blowing up in 2007 ("subprime crisis") but didn't turn into full on disasters for more than a year. It seems like we had a lot of precursors to disaster in 2011 just like we did in 2007.
Good luck to all. Merry Christmas and make sure you have a happy new year. I have heard several friends bitch about how bad 2011 was. Of course they are the ones that continue to not plan for anything, not save for anything and blame others for their misfortune. Something tells me they won't like 2012 any better than 2011.
Gubmints don't wait for crises, gubmints cause crises.
What are you talking about? They almost discussed reducing debt by $1 Trillion over 10 years...or so...maybe.
You mean the current government decided that the next one has to lower spending and/or increase taxes?
DEBT LIMIT - A GUIDE TO AMERICAN FEDERAL DEBT MADE EASY.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li0no7O9zmE
Real assets... Please somebody remind me?
That Lelde Smits would be a good asset to have. Seems on the ball and is smokin' hott. Even if she's not as bright as she seems, you could turn her out and she'd still be a real money-maker. That looks like $10K/night tail.
She hypnotized me; whatever they're paying her, they're getting a bargain. It would be impossible to watch the competing channel. She's welcome to $5,000 if she wants to spend the night at my house and do a little play acting. What a surreal Fox.
She is out of your league...she'll nab some CEO of Billionaire Hedge Fund manager (if she's smart).
Nice chick, sounds stupid though, but hey, she might do the panting better.
Would change those clothes too.
Ok I'm ready for my interview...
What you you guys all looking at me for?
True, but it sounded like annoying canned questioning.
Yeah, to me it looked and sounded like they couldn't set up a real-time interview so her questions were pre-recorded and his answers were spliced sliced and diced. Still good, but why?
and her weird outline - she's dropped in on top of some place she's not. They can't come up with a decent room/set to record her in?
Questions were written by Rogers and enunciated by the chick.
Aussie girls. You're welcome, world.
Why is about slutty sex? Her interview hit the points with no appreciable BS. The interviewee seemed to be at ease with the manner of the pointed questions and came out with an informative piece within the time allowed.
My guess from her name is that she is a displaced Afrikaans speaking South African, or her family was.
I'll give her a solid plus vote for doing her job very well and being easy on the eyes.
Underneath the Aussie drawl, I can definitely hear a Sarth Effrican accent in there. Or maybe Zimbabwe. That part of the world, anyway.
Hey -- if she'd emigrated to the US instead of Australia, could she be correctly described as an African-American?
Real assets?
Friends, health, happiness. I also enjoy good liquor, good food and sleep. Everything else is just something to facilitate the acquisition of these things.
I am guessing you are doing alright, Sudden. Some of my happiest moments in life were finding out how much I loved Leffe Blonde while in Paris a few years back. I am sure you can relate. Now go have a good piece of chocolate and be grateful for the ability to wave your arms like a maniac while screaming at the top of your lungs.
Canned Tuna
It's interesting to think that one day in the not too distant future, a hot shower on a winter day would be regarded as a luxury. Not saying it will turn out that way, but the thought has crossed my mind.
Instead of, say, the once-a-week chore that a shower is regarded in Germany today?
I resemble that remark.
You mean you resemble that aroma, jawohl?
Cheese: it's not just for breakfast anymore.
Zynga stock?
Silver. Silver is a real asset. There you go.
YEAH! The rest is kind of slow today....
AAPL is a gem
Does he still own the USD?
This interview could have been made 10 years ago. Is Rogers saying anything new at all? He can probably repeat the same old in 2020 and it will still be true.
This interview was originally done on a 78 which was transferred to a 33, then reel to reel, then a cassette, a CD and finally transferred to a flash.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZ
that chick's a cutie
Lelda, OMG.
Planning to watch this video another ten or twenty times; with the sound off.
Jim may like Asia but he is still a gweilo.
Good interview though. Debt, debt and more debt. Solved by more debt. Take the pain? But there is still too much anesthetic in the system ...
Ok, don't raise taxes ... except as the Dollar Bill suggests for the fund managers and private equity guys and their 15% carried interest.
And no Steve, it is NOT like “It’s like when Hitler invaded Poland in 1939.” Steve Schwarzman of BlackStone fame and his many billions be damned.
Personally, putting on the youtube snowflake/snowing setting makes the interview more interesting and easier for me to digest this never-ending series of bad news.
"I've been sitting around in my PJ's drinking cherry flavored diet Dr. Pepper and reading science fiction on my Kinde and I've noticed a lot of the villans are now described as "unelected bureaucrats" who are vile and corrupt. Thank God it is only light fiction and not mirroring the real world.
Wall Street green - #WhatCrisis?
"I will take, 'Things people were saying in 2008' for $800, Alex"
" ... why don'tcha give me Ape Tit for $200."
Jimbo's porked up.
You never stop growing...but the direction changes with age.
Real assets like gold, silver, land, ammo, more gold, more ammo........Thanks ZH reader who mentioned comparegoldprices.com. saved me some bank already.
Buy a futures contract. Take delivery.
That's how you buy @ spot.
Exactly. Worked great for Celente. /sarc
Then, have your account seized in a conveniently timed broker bankruptcy against all laws that have been established for 150 years.
Yeah, that's the ticket.
Physical decoupling, bitches.
Then to sell you have to have it re-assayed. Right, brilliant suggestion Balonia.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/26/the-euro-crisis-and-t...
Here's a crisis nobody is watching and might destroy all that is left...
Taiwan election on January 14. Between the nationalists and the pro-China party. Right now they are tied. If the nationalists win, China might go for it and invade Taiwan (which they would have done last election according to Taiwanese-US intelligence but the pro-China party won)...
We'll see in 3 weeks.
Well in the case of thermo nuclear global warfare the definition of real assets changes dramatically....
No way this starts WW3. Obama will let China take Taiwan, bet on it. Of course this will give the MSM and the sheeple a reason to cry for more military spending to ``protect our allies in Asia``... and that will mean Ron Paul will lose because he's ``soft on China``...
http://urlspy.org/u/zerohedge.com
a grand a day.
With all due respect to Zero Hedge, it has probably matured to the point that it is producing income and it nneds to keep us fed, so many posts are reptitious in one form or the other.
The bottom line is, the same problem as discussed here. More debt than the world can handle. More debt coming around the bend and we haven't addressed what we owe now.
Someone will get hurt in more ways than financially.
What is anybody doing about it expept producing more printed money to lend(give) away to those instituions or governments deemed to need it most?
Nothing.
Absolutely Nothing.
The National Debt has been increasing since we went off the Gold Standard. The only reason the National Debt went down at one point in History was because the Government took all of the Social Security Reserves and used them to pay down the Debt. Leaving Social Security with IOU's.
I think they will continue to print like Jim Rogers says. What else can they do?
If the Printing of Money raises inflation then wages usually rise and that increases Tax Revenues for the Federal Government and State Revenues thru Property Taxes.
The only thing that has been fouling up their plan is that Companies have been sending Jobs overseas. The Jobs overseas do not pay Income Tax in the United States to support OUR Government. At some point they have to find a way to bring those jobs back home so they can be taxed to create Tax income for the Government. The Corporations have been double dipping in that they operate in the US but have most of their workforce outside the US. This gives them ability to have lower wages for their workforce and increase profits for their shareholders and themselves. Plus, they do not pay any taxes on the profits from overseas operations overseas. This is robbing our Economy and the People of enormous tax revenue needed to operate the Government.
Radio Interview King World News
Dec 19th
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Shall we have Grandpa Warren buy more Silver or Gold?
His cyclical work, leveraged from another source, not unique, does not work in today's markets.
He should have stayed in jail and requested living arrangements with madoff. Maybe they would have had some synergies and developed a new synthetic offering to hypothecate blogs.
Oh my the profits!
Scattered crisis are also scattering crisis. Economic collapse, civil disorder, shortages and government intrusion all produce displaced and disenfranchised people. I see 2012 becoming very nomadic.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
I used to worry about the Debt but I do not anymore. I stopped stockpiling food and am eating my reserves. I will not be afraid and will survive. If God forbid we have to go back to living like they did in the old days. So be it.
All of our Ancestors lived without Money, electricity, cars and all of our current conveniences. They lived and survived. None of us wants to go back to those times but many of our Ancestors before us lived very good and productive lives without the printing of money and inflation.
The only people that should be afraid are the people that live in large Citys as they will not be able to raise their own food, cut wood from their land for heat, raise chickens, etc. and live off the grid. They are the ones that will have a problem.
They are the ones for which the FEMA camps are being prepared.
Ya, well, I'm an insulin-dependent diabetic. Once my stock runs out, I'm dead in about two weeks. And, unlike tinned beans, insulin doesn't keep for years.
So, unless you can teach me how to make insulin in a tin can over a wood fire, my future is pretty much tied up with a functioning civilization.
As for our "ancestors" - yes, if you didn't die in childbirth, or by age 5 due to measles, mumps, chicken pox, TB, smallpox, cholera, flu, food poisoning, malaria, yellow fever, tetanus, or scurvy, and you were able to survive through floods, famines, and other natural disasters, yes, you had a chance to live until 65. But, since over 95% of the population of EVERYWHERE worked in agriculture until 1800, the chances were you were malnourished, that you could barely read or write, that you didn't own a thing except the clothes on your back and maybe a cow, and that you spent your whole life within 20 miles of where you were born.
That may be your idea of a "very good and productive" life; it sure isn't mine.
here you go http://www.rawfor30days.com/index4.html
http://www.jbc.org/content/72/1/57.full.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Saxl
This was freedom. Losing all hope was freedom.
I'm sorry to hear about your diabetes. But in fact, most of the population for most of the span of humankind worked very little (the equivalent of 2 or 3 days a week), being foragers. See the book "Sex at Dawn" for a lot of information on this and even more interesting topics.
thanks for the tip!
"waterfallsparkles"...Those city dwellers, will eventually pay you a visit!
Too many city folk to fend off...You might get a bunch of them, but eventually the numbers will overwhelm you.
I think they will rob and kill each other long before they get to me. I live in a rural area also. Plus, I live on a road that can be blocked on each end by a Neighbor patrol with guns.
More appropriately: CRISES with SEVERE PANICS.
and what Jim failed to say was you figure out the last time for US prosperity: a la the Eisenhower years. You reinstate ALL policy line-by-line for the Eisenhower prosperity and if Jim gets kicked in the butt, too damn bad.
When you're in the econmic woods and lost, as the US is, you do a 180 and re-trace your steps to the location where you knew where you were going. Simple as that.
Mandarin? Mandarin? That would be good to know if you were gonna be a missionary.
Just like all those fools that studied Japanese in the 1980s, when THEY were gonna take over the world, studying Chinese will get you a job in a restaurant.
What a world. Savonarola quoting Otto von Bismarck on Oriental culinaria.
Well, I know dear old Otto said something about making laws and making sausage.
On further reflection, I now think that Rogers was being hyperbolic, similar to his comments about becoming a farmer. He is a vest-pocket jester at times, to be sure.
learning mandarin enables you to speak with over one billion people who earn less than 500 dollars per year. And taxi drivers. That's all.
Just wait until Jim capitulates and covers his short, only then will it be time.
I'd rather be in an American jail for speaking out against the government than a Singapore jail while they shake me down for my millions.
all I saw for the past 14mins was that HOT aussie babe
Was there a video? Ah fuck I missed it again! No javascript...
http://www.hark.com/clips/dhjzcwbhvn-wha-wha-price-is-right
Yeah. I doubt it was interview pressure making Rogers sweat.
Wot kind of nonsense is this?!
You allow a man to speak for 14 minutes without a single commercial interruption, or without an opposing viewpoint from some Steve Leishman-like golem?
why, it's unamerican, I tells ya!
A golem? Is that what Steve Liesman really is? Somehow, I was assuming that he was just a blow-up doll for the Bernank's perverse sexual amusement.
Oh no, wait --- that's us.
I like Jim Rogers but he's too bullish on commodities and China. He doesn't realize they're fakers and that we're all screwed now.
People don't want to admit that growth is over, and only the gold holders will win in the end.
Sell sell sell ..... before any short selling ban...
Better than Treasury and the Fed running out of ammo. Just like Europe. Look at charts of the M1 Multiplier and M2 Velocity.
What happened in 1997-1998 that screwed the US/Europe monetary system? Hmmmm. The Euro, Clinton (Fannie/Freddie) and too many squeezes of the adrenalin pen.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/26/the-euro-crisis-and-t...
Wow professor, you made it a whole 4 hours without pumping your blog in the same thread again.
You need to get contributor status and post your articles.
I can't take you ZHers anywhere ! She's very bright ! She happens to have a German/Aussie accent, you boobs ! Let's see Lelde Smits hmmm could be Austrian/Australian ?
Talk about being twice-damned in the accent department!
How does one say "the worst of all possible worlds" in Austrian German?
made me think of thishttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOFjCWEB52M&feature=related
Jim Rogers looks like he's 90 years old and about to have a coronary.
Where did he get that crumbly shirt ? Didn't his mom tell him not to wash his white shirts with his underwear ? While he gets a clean shirt....I wish he would get some fresh material....he's starting to repeat himself ! Maybe his little Singapore house maid is poisoning him ?
RowboatTraitor writes like he's 9 years old and about to poop his pants --- again.
dont vote down Robot's comment, the guy looks like shit, but also maybe it is because he is usually wearing about $7,000 in threads...saw him on cnbc two weeks ago and was polished as always. BTW why is everyone giving RoboTrader shit lately. Robot trader is busy trading the vol, when the market was moving up in a straight fuckin line,,,robot trader had the best posts...lets just say his avatar was an appetizer
RobotTrader was on CNBC? REALLY?
Who is he in real life --- Steve LIESman?
After he delivered his obligatory one or two flyby, pro-status-quo quips, what did he do --- just sit there and stare?
He doesn't look too well.
He had just been waterboarded and beaten again for spitting on the sidewalks. And that was just a warning!
No, Jim doesn't look well, bad color and carrying too much flesh on his face. Hopefully it is just the poor wardrobe color choises and bad lighting (from window behind).
Let's just thank God that it wasn't an interview with Hillaryous Clinton under the same conditions:
Hillary
Another brick in the wall.
Jim is onto the right path, but he doesn't understand the elite and their plan. As the 100 year plan comes to an end, 2012 will be the year they crash the economy and 2013 will be when the massacres begin. They don't just want control of the financial world, they want control of the whole world.
Read;
http://www.amazon.com/Simple-Wealth-Mr-Andrew-Costello/dp/1463523017/ref
a book on building wealth?, funny that was my FIN 203 book and then Bear failed a day after i bought it...if you want to build wealth, go read seekingalpha.com once you can afford an ipad. everyone there is a hedge fund manager, they must be brilliant. blah blah blah go have 'trader's block' somewhere else. BTW if "they" have that much power they wouldve done it in less than 99 years dipshit. eat+ipad.
jimmehh!
Jim is wrong.
I buy into the plan that says America is healthy. All else fails...
Ah, the RobotTrader strategy: cross your fingers before jumping head-first into the wood chipper.
we are in for a long hard great adventure but, there is no reason the be pessimistic.
http://covert.mypressonline.com
I used to buy into that plan, too. Until I once ran out of gas in my car on cutting boulevard in richmond california at 1 a.m.
Last couple of interviews I've seen Jimmy looks bad, hopefully he's okay. Maybe some bad poon
The last couple of Rogers' interviews have been via Skype and a $29 webcam under a 60 watt bulb. Sophia Loren in her prime would have looked butt ugly behind that technology. The "talent", on the other hand, probably spent a half hour in make-up before taking her seat in front of a pair of $100K studio cameras under 10,000 watts of softened lighting.
Advantage: Aussie woman, by birth and by circumstance.
What?!!! No rude comments from Rogers to his interviewer? He must be as sick as he looks or this interview was heavily edited.
@ freddie .... mate , i AM doin her ...and yeah she is squidgy ... hi le le !
LOL! Someone said she looks good because of makeup. You would be amazed at how good makeup can make many women look. Giselle Budchen was walking around with Tom Brady and their kids. She had no make up on. The women posters on The Daily Mail said he was prettier than she is. She is not pretty w/o make up.
try south african
She's a plain Jane with good makeup...would look like hell in the morning.
well if she looked like your avatar it wouldnt matter
Do you guys notice how Jim reversed his position on Chinese stocks? No interviewer has asked him about that but its good he is not a stubborn guy, like what's his head - Stephen Roach.
a sign of a good investor.
there is even a Chinese saying for it (roach).
``the dead chicken props up the lid of rice-cooker``
You were good Jimm-eh.... but that's over, you're now Yesterday's Man - and look like it.
Nobody moves to Singapore so their kids can learn Mandarin. There mut be more to the story than that. Jim is not looking too good, either.; like a hostage in a Talaban video. The thing is, his advice has been sound for over 30 years and still the engine keeps chugging along. Diversification is the key.
re Nobody moves to Singapore so their kids can learn Mandarin
Agreed. To learn Mardarin, just swap R with L and, optionally, O with I
You can even pLatice this fLom the comfLIt of your own Razy-BLoy - certainly no need to travel half-way round the rhirrld to Slingaplore
Obviously a bit more to it - but that should be enuf get you started. Youre Rel-cwom
oh, lah?
I don`t think that jim will go the way of vic niederhoffer- but I do think he took a bath on his Chinese stock holdings.
hummm but then again, unstoppable (at the time) vic got wiped out in 97 w the Asian crisis...
I do think asia is a really long term growth story, but there are going to be a lot of corpses along the way.
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