This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Jim Rogers Sees Devastating Stagflation, Would Quit If He Was A Bond Portfolio Manager
Now that we already had one notorious bond bear in the house with a late afternoon appearance by Bill Gross, who in a very polite way, apologized and said that while he may have been wrong in the short-term, he will be proven correct eventually, it is now time for the second uber-bond bear to make himself heard. In a CNBC interview with Jim Rogers, the former Quantum Fund co-founder, who back in July said he was had shorted US Treasurys, exhibited absolutely no remorse, instead reiterated a 100% conviction in his "bond short" call: "Rogers said when there is a bubble, such as the one being experienced in U.S. Treasurys, prices could go up for long periods of time. Bill Gross of Pimco, who also had a bearish view on Treasurys, threw in the towel earlier this year. But Rogers is sticking to his opinion that Treasurys will eventually fall. "Bernanke is obviously backing the market again and the Federal Reserve has more money than most of us - so they can drive interest rates down again. As I say they are making the bubble worse." The reality is that while Bill Gross has to satisfy LPs with monthly and quarterly performance statements (preferably showing a + sign instead of a -), the retired and independently wealthy Rogers has the luxury of time. And hence the core paradox at the heart of modern capital market trading: most traders who trade with other people's money end up following the crowd no matter how wrong the crowd is, as any substantial deviation from the benchmark will lead to a loss of capital (see Michael Burry) even if in the longer-term the thesis is proven not only right, but massively right. Alas, this means most have ultra-short term horizons, which works perfectly to Bernanke's advantage as he keeps on making event horizons shorter and shorter, in the process killing off any bond bears which unlike Rogers can afford to wait, and wait, and wait.
On whether the US is becoming a deflationary Japanese-style basket case:
"A difference is when Japan did that they were the largest creditor nation in the world, America is the largest debtor nation - not just in the world - but in the history of the world and the U.S. dollar has been - and is the world's reserve currency. So there are some factors that might not keep the interest rate down in the U.S.
Ok, so no deflation. What then?
The U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of stagflation worse than the 1970s, which would cause bond yields to spike, commodity bull Jim Rogers told CNBC on Friday in Singapore. Rogers said governments were lying about the inflation problem and the recent rally in Treasurys was a bubble.
"As the inflation numbers get worse and as governments print more money and as governments have to issue many, many more bonds - somewhere along the line we get to the point when (bond prices) go down."
Between 1974 and 1978 average inflation in the U.S. was at 8 percent, while unemployment hit a peak of 9 percent in May 1975. Currently, unemployment is at 9.1 percent while CPI is at 3.8 percent.
"This time is never different" and why the mother of all stagflations is coming soon:
Rogers believes inflation will get much worse this time because, he
said, in the 1970s only the Fed was printing money, whereas now many
global central banks have been easing monetary policy.
So yes: he will be right eventually... But what about in the interim?
"Bernanke is obviously backing the market again and the Federal Reserve has more money than most of us - so they can drive interest rates down again. As I say they are making the bubble worse."
For now though Rogers is playing it safe and avoiding bonds. Instead, he's betting on stagflation by being long commodities and currencies (such as the Chinese yuan) and shorting stocks.
Rogers even has some career advice for up and coming bond mavens:
"I wouldn't advise anybody to buy bonds, I would advise you to sell bonds," he said. "If I were a bond portfolio manager, I would get another job."
Ok, well, make that anti advice.
As to where the money will be made...
"In the 70s you didn't make much money in stocks, you made fortunes owning commodities," Rogers added.
»
- 69882 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
US treasuries are the biggest bubble in history. All the mainstream financial press talking about gold being a bubble at $1900 and then they look at the ten year yield and it's less than 2%. Hahahaha.
http://azizonomics.com/2011/10/14/the-great-treasury-dumping-game-begins/
Start working on those push-ups boys & girls. Weeza headin' for the big war!
"USTreasury = return free risk". / Jim Grant.
I had to read that twice...but priceless!
DavidC
"the Federal Reserve has more money than most of us"
Come on Jim, you know better than that. They MAKE the money, they have more "money" than anyone the universe has ever known.
Of course, money does not always have value, and many times it has none.
Rogers = Crammer = Roubini = Farber - it's all about them all the time. They're always right and they are always sure. It's actually all about the fact that they are self centered media hounds who are more about entertainment than info or insight.
Booooo to all of them all the time. GET OFF THE AIR.
Much as I hugely respect Jim Rogers, it seems to me that shorting US treasuries is an end-of-the world trade, and, not just that, but the wrong end-of-the-world trade.
When the Fed finally allows yields to rise, it will be because they have lost control, and it will be because the USD is completely cooked. When you finally cash out your UST short, your profit will be in genuinely worthless paper.
PMs are a better bet - they will continue to rise in terms of fiat as the end-of-the-world approaches, and still be worth something after it happens.
Of course, when I say 'end-of-the-world', I mean a relatively controlled collapse, not Mad Max or The Road.
Big Jim is right of course ...Ben 'Bubbles' Bernanke has been blowing hard for 3 years now.. all that huffing and puffing and all he's managed to do is kick the can down the road on the day of reckoning for the bankrupt crooks of Wall Street and the corrupt clowns of Washington
Bubbles Bernanke is a counterfeit wealth fraud wrapped up in a corrupt monopoly attached to financial criminals and complicit in elite anarchy
'Rich' that Raja-learned-at-goldman got jailed for insider dealing not 3 weeks after Ben 'Bubbles' Bernanke took down Gold and rigged the price driving a horse and coaches through every piece of insider trading and market fixing Law on statute
Where are the Retards.. sorry, Regulators?
Manhattan upper east side had enough of curry.
See how Kashikari TARP is Indian, Raja is Indianish, Rajat Gupta of McKinsey is Indian? New money newbies forgot to bribe the right folks and got caught stealing.
Look for attacks on China next as US wages currency war.
It is all corrupt at the top so no tears here.
Matt Taibbi calls Alan Greenspan a “one in a billion asshole” and convincingly argues that he is “the key to understanding this generation’s financial disaster”.
Greenspan’s adherence to Randian free market extremism led to two decades of loose monetary policy that inflated a succession of bubbles, culminating in the US housing and credit bubble that collapsed in 2007.
He also colluded with the President of Citibank, Sandy Weill, to get the Glass-Steagall Act repealed in 1999, freeing the commercial banks to move into investment banking and trading in their own right.
1982 to 2007 saw a vast expansion of credit, including a blow-off in the final five years that saw credit expand at triple the normal rate, thanks largely to the innovation of 'sub-prime loans' packaged into fraudulent instruments with the connivance of ratings agencies and sold to investors rather than retained on bank balance sheets.
Looking back, it’s plain that this period was not 'normal'.
Ben Shalom is just the latest incarnation.
"Greenspan’s adherence to Randian free market extremism led to two decades of loose monetary policy that inflated a succession of bubbles, culminating in the US housing and credit bubble that collapsed in 2007."
Total bull shit! There is/was nothing free about our markets. It is all about market manipulation and fraud.
There was nothing "Randian" about the Greenspan put.
if you read Greenspan's article "Gold and Economic Freedom" you would retract your statement. If he actually had stuck to "Randian" "free-market" principles we never would have had the housing bubble.
sound money is the answer, and Greenspan is as free-market as George Bush and Barrack Obama. Just cause he wrote something one day, doesn't mean his policies were in line with that philosophy which he abandoned. Fuck Greenspan.
Central banks are a 'Randian' cornerstone, are they?
Moron.
The luxury of Time is not afforded the corporate pimco; compromised by $$ADD$$
IPs make real IP.
Ain't no such thing.
jim's right...problem is no one has any patience anymore...look forward to see him proven correct yet again
this could be a great time to short bonds, especially govt.
http://expose2.wordpress.com
"You have the watches...We have the time." Taliban dude
Occupy Wall St and USA checked
Occupy Canada checked
Occupy London checked
Occupy Paris checked
Occupy Taipei and Hong Kong checked
Occupy Seoul checked
Occupy Milano checked
Occupy Madrid checked
Occupy Mumbai checked
..........
Bye bye bankers!
occupy uranus
Before or after Bernanke and Wall Street are finished with it?
The Klingons are.
And Klendathu
Occupy Beij.... (thump)
Hey is that a sni...
You mean over there on the roo
Occupy Tiaw... (thump)
Occupy Pyongy..............eeek :(
Occupy Rangoo..........oops!
Mass protest world wide
http://15october.net/
Wow that's today and I didn't get the memo.
I was thinking the 5th of November . . . .or was that just for the gunpowder?
It's more than the bankers that will go bye bye if they succeed.
You better educate yourself on what Occupy Wall Street is. Communist mother fuckers and useful idiots as the protesters.
owning silver has never been more obvious than it is today
$32 an ounce too! VERY cheap.
apmex let me know my latest order was NOW BACKORDERED
Gainesville has Silver bars 75 cents over spot right now
Just picked up another order with them this week...love walking out the door with a heavy bag in my hand...
Yep bought some at 31.00 2 weeks ago during the dip. 3 week wait and should be here next week and coin show the follwoing week. Time for more of the PM"s
Look at the charts! Silver sucks when compared to GOLD...
I have been trying to, but can't find a good online charting site or App that will let me overlay them for 5yrs. Recommend one?
On the left hand column on ZH. Jessie's Cafe Americana. Best I have seen.
try this http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html
Use Big Charts. Here's the URL for the GLD vs SLV co-plot you're wondering about:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&instty...
Bottom Line: Both up about 170% over the last 5 years. That GLD:SLV ratio is quite constant over long periods-silver flucuates more-gold is very steady. But over short periods one can easily outperform the other as you will see. Make sure you you cut and paste that whopper URL though.
Now overlay the gold/silver ratio and the S&P 500.
Super... Just what I needed. Tx
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price-live.html
The OI figures are the most bullish they have been since 2003. Yet no upward movement. Seems like things are falling apart over there.
@yamaha "Silver sucks when compared to GOLD..."
It doesn't suck. It's on SALE! Buy it while you can.
Rogers should just quit. S&P is headed to 1400!
Damn bears still think fundementals matter.
Lets see, Rogers is worth a few Billion and you are worth nothing. I think I will go with him and fuck U to all the idiots.
nice try............Rogers for President.......do I here one for Ron Paul!
OK, OK just 90 more?
See, no registered voters on ZH! What does that tell you?
Whales like Rogers can afford to be wrong longer than Ben can print his ass off while keeping bonds and commodities prices in check. Whille the MO MO monkeys are blowing up next year Rogers will going from a hundred mil or so down (loose change) to billions up.
Roger doesn't has the luxury of time. What he has is the luxury to lose 25% of his money, which you'll never hear about, fighting the FED.
I got my money on the FED. What odds do you want?
Try posting again after you do has sobered up . . .
Look who's typing..."after you do has sobered up". I'll catch up with you in a few...cheers!
Obviously you missed the humor in my post . . .
Spoken like the true-to-his-nature hybrid of a subservient sheep and a mindless lemming.
Prepare to lose all or most of that misplaced money of yours.
The shlemming
I'm not for the Fed but the odds are against beating it. Because it is not just the Fed anymore. It is the entire world central banks doing exactly what Fed does. The possibility of reforming Fed is a remote one, but to reform all central banks in the world will take decades of suffering to finally prove that it doesn't work. Also there needs to be an alternative for people to compare. Communism vs. Fed Reserve Printing. Fed Vs ?
I have a feeling that the FED will ultimately implode by its own hand as it "prints and prints and prints", as the Federal Reserve Notes continually lose more and more purchasing power, the potency of the FED's power will vanish. Even a corrupt government will only put up with the smell of rotting flesh for just so long. The dogs will begin to eat each other as bounties are placed on their heads.
AldousHuxley, the odds are not only against the Fed, but their failure is a mathematical, not to mention historical, certainty. ALL fiat currency regimes end in depreciation and catastrophic collapse, and whether that collapse of this fundamentally evil, economic central planning institution happens in one year or ten, I am prepared to wait it out. I can stay solvent longer than the Fed can remain insane.
I agree with you on the success of the Fed, but the odds of beating the institution of Fed are remote. Even if Bernanke is out, they will put Janet Yellen in his place. Even if Fed is burned down, Congress will resurect it. It is the idea that a central bank can stay independent and manage the economy that needs to be beat. But just like China doesn't admit that they now practice capitalism or USSR for that matter, USA will have to crash then subvertly move on to better financial system. But systematic changes are slow because the aholes on wall st. still don't get it
regarding OWS:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/15/business/in-private-conversation-wall-...
...It is the idea that a central bank can stay independent and manage the economy that needs to be beat.
No, what needs to be beat is the idea that anything can manage the economy, independent or otherwise.
"Spoken like the true-to-his-nature hybrid of a subservient sheep and a mindless lemming. Prepare to lose all or most of that misplaced money of yours."
Bunky, the sixties are over, the lemmings were eaten by the 'bots in year 2000, the "shorts" are playing Custer's Last Stand, and the MMs still rule. Trust me, some day it's gonna all fall apart... but...in the MEANtime...
U ucktard, why would you want the fed to lose? Billions of people rely on their pension and the stock market for their retirement. The great Bernenke saved them from uter collapse which would have bought world wide chaos where even your freaking piece of useless metal will be worthless. The only reason gold and silver is up now is because of QE so stop talking shit, because the stock market and the gold market is the same, they both depend on money printing and you will be ucking crying if they did not print cause gold will be worth shit.
Fuk this deuschbag bowtie wearing fag, encouraging everyone to speculate on commodities and short bonds. If everyone listened to this retard fuk who only got rich riding on Soros, the whole world would be fuked by $10 gas, scarce food, and high interest rates that would bring the economy to a halt. Fags like him should not be able to speculate on commodities only to pass on higher prices to consumers. What a fuking loser, hope he burns in hell along with the rest of those greedy fuks.
Thank you for your contribution, broke433.
You may now return to urinating in your pants and screaming at the pigeons in the park.
Amazingly dense. Since the conception of the Federal Reserve and the implementation of its skewed monetary policies, there has been an enormous transference of wealth from the American People into the hands of this illegitimate government and its corrupt patrons. The Federal Reserve has made that all possible. From early in its history, the FED has created booms and bust, the most notable being, of course, The Great Depression and I can give Ben Bernake at least one iota of credit for admitting that it was the FED that caused The Great Depression, too bad he won’t confess the fact that every single economic dislocation in this country has been caused by the policies, either directly or indirectly, of the FED.
You obviously don’t understand exactly what Quantitative Easing is, it is nothing more than what the FED has been doing for decades, only in hyper-drive…monetary inflation, creating more and more Federal Reserve Notes, depreciating the currency to the point that today it takes over $22,000.00 to purchase what $1,000.00 did when the purchase value of the Dollar was actually 100 Cents. Oh, get ready for $10 or more gas, get ready for $10 to $20 a gallon for milk, get ready for uber-inflation, not because of anything that Soros is doing, but because of what the FED is doing. Inflation of the money supply (QE) is the intentional debasement of the currency, you think that will solve things or make prices lower: WRONG, VERY, VERY WRONG! Just the opposite with happen, we are in real danger of facing a hyper-inflationary depression Sir, and that will be the direct result of what the FED is doing with the money supply.
You are defending the Uber-Thiefs, Sir. As far as Soros, don’t you get it, he is in just as deep into this government’s patronage system, thanks to the FED, as any other. He has not done what he has alone, he has had a great deal of help from his friends in government and in the FED. This mercantilist system of government must go, and the only way to get rid of it, outside of open revolt, is to cut the head off of the snake and that is the FED.
yes, they will print money. QE to infinity and beyond,,, Gold and silver...
Good point. I didnt junk you btw, that would be the self appointed douchebaggery patrol thinking you support the fed. Hell but hell no, shorting during a QE is suicide for the small fish. Even with no Fed printing you are up against the criminal syndicate (wall street) and their co ordinated squeeze plays.
If and when QE3 comes along, I will be going long stocks at least until the wheels come off.
Right now the only way to trade is forget the news and market direction predictions and use no longer than a 1 hour chart. Go long the sqeezes and short when they are done. A simple MA crossover and volume system will do.
Not only is buy and hold dead, trading beyond a weekly timeframe is dead too.
I dont normally wear a tin foil hat, but I suspect the FED and their evil PD minions are in cahoots with the media to provide fodder and cover for squeezing shorts. This cushions the plunge since the FED cannot unleash a bazooka at this time due to inflation threatening the political careers of the status quo Republicrats.
They aint gonna just let you take out a full margin short on say AMZN or whatever and get rich in a year, even though we will likely be below 2008 lows again.
Or you could just buy and hold physical gold and silver, and say "Fuck You!" to the entire corrupt and risky paper game. But keep on picking up your pennies in front of the Fed's steamroller, if lucre is your only value in life --- one day you are going to trip, and that steamroller, slow as it is, will find your bones beneath its wheel. And driver Bernanke will laugh and laugh.
He did not become a billionaire like that.
The odds on collecting from e2thex are quite long as you can also imagine at your delusional trade venue.
I've seen you around mynhair.. You are a first class fuckstick.
Wow Mynhair, did you order your catnip from Adbusters? Perhaps it was laced with hopium.
Atta boy Jimmy.
Rogers is a good old boy from Alabama. His Southern sensibilities are serving him well. The South was always about the real deal: cotton, coal, oil, timber, and gold (esp North Carolina & Georgia). The New England paper trump ruled for a time, but that time is coming to an end. The age of the real deal is dawning. It's time to "occupy" that bullshit . . .
New England is going to OWN you southern white/black trash for decades and centuries to come.
You will be our bitches for a long, long time.
Count on it.
Yep. Just as soon as all those 1850s textile mills are back up and running, right?
Ever notice how the WORST in political corruption and poisonous political beliefs tend to spring to life and spread from the Northeast? I have, for many years. "The Cradle of Liberty" has turned into "The Cesspool of Statism".
(I exempt the majority of New Hampshirers and Mainers from that blanket accusation, by the way.)
"Ever notice how the WORST in political corruption and poisonous political beliefs tend to spring to life and spread from the Northeast? I have, for many years. "The Cradle of Liberty" has turned into "The Cesspool of Statism".
Preach it brother.
I'd love to "occupy" your ass too, you mutt Yankee . . .
I've got an FN FiveseveN with thirty round mags full of SS190 NATO armor-piercing rounds waiting for your bitchass to show up so I can show you some southern hospitality. We still live in the real world and black or white don't need a "system" to be self-sufficient, bitch. Don't come crying south when your cities are starving . . .
I am very sympathetic to the South, but while you produce it, NE owns it. The issue was settled by Abe a long time ago.
In terms of ultra-bears, Marc Faber was right on Treasuries as he continually is on short-term market moves. Jim Rogers probably was looking for greater returns, as commodities have been cooling a bit as warnings of massive deflation risk in Europe have reemerged since his deciding to short treasuries. He will be right eventually, timing is just impossible when you are make bets against the world's reserve currency and most liquid bond market. AS for Gross, I don't know how anyone could focus souly on bonds especially in a world where rates are in absolute negative-real territory. If he read even a few articles on Austrian economics he would know that we haven't seen anything yet in terms of inflation. 30-year bond at just a little over 3%, lol! Wait till inflation, even government stats, begins ripping in double-digits year/year.
Since you mention the thirty year; I suppose this is as good a place as any to say that I'm up over $6,000 a contract on the Dec. CME US LONG BOND. I have a total of 3750 per contract losses booked in this contract this year. The articvle says timing is impossible; this is rubbish, of course. It's done by looking at the charts which are published every day, for free. It's true that this is an enormous bubble and I will be holding this position and rolling it over to future contract months as necesary; the alternative is that I will take a zero loss. This is an explanation of how to do this. You sell peaks, if you're too early, you take your loss; if you're not you stay in the market; there's no price target; I'm willing to be pleasantly surprised late next year, for instance. The zero stop loss prevents one from outsmarting oneself. All I reaquire from the market is either, a.) no losss, or b.) enormous profits. This also simplifies the process so that it only takes a few minutes every other day to examine the charts. Right now, I don't even care, because the zero loss stop is already in the market. In a very real sense, this market times itself; because it makes dramatic spikes. It's quite possible that we've already seen the top of this market; if not, I will sell it again. That's all there is to it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMYGb0ooSoc
damn funny lol but true!
Sounds like you haven't been in the markets forever
Are you the same "oldman" I have run into on another board? - the one with the 10ema system that keeps you headed in the direction of the market?
He of old "this stuff isn't rocket science" fame?
@IQ 145
fine, I am wrong, lol... (got a 34 on my ACT btw, but that is beside the point). This is Fight Club, what ZH was made for!
BRING IT.
Call me out on each and every point! ZH is a macroeconomic/geo-political blog. Bonds, Commodities and Equities have been flying in both directions for years now. You did well on a trade, that is great! In hindsight, even with the rally in bonds in the last few months, how would you have done the last 2 years alone in PMs Versus U.S. Treasuries? Many on ZH have been buying gold for years, playing commodities and/or speculating on trades. The majority have made out extremely well during these most volatile times. The fact remains we live in a world with vast uncertainty. The U.S. economy has never been in worse shape in its 330+ history. Maybe this time it's different, eh? Well, go ahead and bet mankind behaves differently than history tells. If I am wrong, I am at least on record (As ZH archives all our history).
You're not wrong about anything, as far as I know. I'm not argueing with anyone; I'm pointing out that ordinary people can short the Long Treasury Bond thrue the contract traded on the CME; this trade, short the long bond, is considered by many very experienced people, such as, Jim Rogers, to represent a great opportunity. All my savings have been in Silver bullion since 1998. This is just a small "play" account. It is obviously, a bet on the failure of the Fed and their plans. Try, read more carefully, perhaps. I post all the trades here when I make them in case anyone wants to look them up on the charts. As I said, I lost twice, and zeroed out once, this is the fourth time I shorted these things; the $6,000 per contract, is good for now; but the intention is to stay in the position until it yields 50,000 or 60,000 per contract. The reason this is a good idea is that the outcome is known. They have to go down; to expect them to go up is equivalent to expecting rocks to float up from the ground; it's not going to happen.
fair enough. It is just when discussing/debating on ZH we are talking medium-long term time horizon. That is unless the article the Tylers' post happens to correlate with dialy occurances (short term volitility and/or current unfolding Geo-Political events). Good luck on your trades. A
Ordinary people would need a 6 month class just to vaguely understand what you are talking about and they don't have the capital to even open the type of account that would be required.
Hey, that's what I got on my ACT too! Good job. (Seriously, I was the only one in my high school class to break 30. Based on how well you present yourself here, I'm not surprised by your score.)
BTW, how goes your economics class? Does your Keynes-fellating professor use the tired old 'spoiled, unemployed hippies' bromide when discussing the OWS protesters? Does he acknowledge that Iceland (also known as Sackistan due to their abundance of balls) did the right thing by telling the banksters to piss up a rope? Will he admit that Europe (as well as the US) is simply kicking the can toward the edge of an abyss?
WoW! 6000 doh-lars!!
You must be a multi-billionaire!!
Those 6 large will buy you two fancy wheels & tires on the nearest pimpmobile.
Consider yourself set!
$6K PER CONTRACT, no mention was made of HOW MANY contracts were bought/sold...
I want a Paul/Farage ticket damnit! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79VTi2hSyuk&NR=1
Just pointing out: as per my comments on the last 2 threads, here are 2 experts with 3 diametrically opposed opinions. Gross did a 180 and Rogers sticking to his guns under fire. Both think they are right, one had the courage to say he was both right a wrong.
THis has been a theme for 2-3 years: the inflation/deflationistas consistently get it wrong in either direction (Rosenberg etc). Why?
Look for the answer to be that the economy is no longer playing by the old rules, the ones they cut their teeth on.
It's biflation, baby, and it's going to stay that way. Buying power is getting crushed by massive growth in the "paper economy", while the "real economy" is slowly contracting. Only gold can save your buying power over time through this fog. Bonds will get volatile. Cash will die on the vine along with all dollar-denominated paper assets
bi me. Like the pig market cares. Non-trader.
This small business owner can't wait to "occupy" your bitch trader ass . . .
Fight nice boyz
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqYL53y2mg4
CE,
in all truth it is simply unkowable what, if anything, will fare well.
First order effects should be deflationary...everything going down in price due to too much debt everywhere. However...
Second order is gov and CB monetary / fiscal actions to countervene first order. Print money, massive tax cuts, pull forward demand, build bridges to nowhere, blah blah.
Truly the smartest can't say how far the second order can go, will go, will be allowed politically to go, and what other international players may do to speed or slow first or second order effects. Round and round we go. Can the world absorb more debt? Can the debt gain traction to start an inflationary cycle in US as China is seeing? Will confidence be lost in govs and currencies and utterly dis-empower the CB's? Who the fuck can really put all this together getting the timeline and direction correct (particularly when it appears a small group is given many of the answers to the test ahead of time).
This is now global Poitinomics...goes far beyond supply and demand...central global planning driven by the unelected and sleepy electorates alike...crazy stuff. Makes it real easy to understand why so many are paying cash for multi-plex rentals and just focusing on cash flow.
+1
Excellent synopsis!
Gold will retain the same buying power as it has for centuries.
CE - u and I are both long PM's hoping for shelter from the storm. However, u are talking about what should happen and I'm talking what can happen. PM's could turn out to be a shitty investment, even if for all the wrong reasons, but still a real loser. Not anticipating this but just saying everything is possible but more like feasible. Just cause PM's checks all the logical boxes doesn't mean it will do so in the real world (on our timelines).
Yeah, I am getting whip-sawed lately. I think my strategy for the next few months will be to buy low and sell high. NB--this requires BTFD and STFR.
Caveat anyone ...
http://dailybail.com/storage/calvin-hobbes-crony-capitalism.jpg
crony capitalism = socialism
All those teatards and republicans cry out socialism, but socialism is already here. Take all US government subsidies out, and you will have half of US companies unprofitable and CEO's out of a job. But they sure like their private profits.
More than half - weapons, drugs, health care, banks,insurance, accounting, just about everthing except entertainment.
I can only imagine how bad government entertainment would be.
Can it be any worse than the shit we are now subject to?
For the reading and comprehension impaired, the above is *not* an endorsement of government entertainment.. (BTW, in the old days, it was called the USO...)
Regards government entertainment.
That would be "Donald Duck in army" or how that cartoon was called, which even won Oscar 1943 *snicker snicker*
Also USA army sponsored some games I think.
Long OWS waste recycling. Long Soylent Green. Long scoops.
Depends how he is short T's...CDS, ETF, or straight up short the underlying? Normally when you short a Treasury you have to make the interest payment. Devil is in the details.
Yes, operation Twist is just QE2 1/2. You can tell by the way the Market is reacting. All of the Mo Mo stocks are rocketing.
Interesting that the begining of October it looked like it was not going to affect stock prices and then BOOM Dow up 1,200 points in 9 days.
And that tells you what?
What changed.
What has been resolved.
What Miracle has been witnessed.
Not a damn thing - we are swimming naked with sharks
WOW!! +20!!
"The reality is that while Bill Gross has to satisfy LPs with monthly and quarterly performance statements (preferably showing a + sign instead of a -), the retired and independently wealthy Rogers has the luxury of time. And hence the core paradox at the heart of modern capital market trading: most traders who trade with other people's money end up following the crowd no matter how wrong the crowd is, as any substantial deviation from the benchmark will lead to a loss of capital (see Michael Burry) even if in the longer-term the thesis is proven not only right, but massively right"
THIS explains why things stopped making sense a while ago.
Uber-long profitable no-debt, cash-cow miners, here.
I got nothin' but time, and no investors to answer to.
I ain't touching TMV before it hits 14, ya weasel zippers.
Can I touch it?
When he turns 14.
Now we're talkin'. A little "Action Jackson." Let's see what James Bond vs the Bond Guy looks like up close:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95Zgz1_xYx8&feature=player_detailpage
That's Axelrod!
Capital flight out of treasuries is the end game, just like this crisis http://freegoldobserver.blogspot.com/2011/10/forgotten-crisis-and-what-e...
Nice to see yields not reflect that.....buy, you terrorist!
The "Asian crisis" was but a stop on the Big Way Down. Most people are so fucking myopic that they just can't see it. The Big Cycle has no more sub-cycles left in it, there are only appearances of "up."
Doesn't the govt (when it assesses/guesses about inflation) just substitute one thing for another if the other thing gets too expensive? Well, at some point that original thing completely loses favor because it's permanently viewed as no longer in play. Civilization is shifting to the substitutions, as much as it can given that there's so much that's becoming less available, and the stuff that was once viewed as being valuable will fall by the wayside (HDTVs, McMansions, Hummers, and, yes, one day, iShits). The substitution process puts further price pressures in the form of reversed economies of scale.
In the past it was technology that created new demand, now, and well in to the future, it'll be brought about because the sum of societies cannot afford to prop up what it has built using cheap oil.
On one hand I can see a valid point for Treasuries going up (problems attracting buyers- Fed is about tapped out). But on the other I don't see that there's anyone out there that has enough flow to feed the ever-increasing US debt load: would be like asking another passenger on the Titanic if they could bail you out...
Stagflation in everything except what society had deemed (led to believe were) valuable things (include various jobs here as well- wages falling).
Rogers is "made" from a long time ago and "makes" by talking today. I'll just go with trying to make more food- most people (except govts) have respect for small farmers.
Seer keep working on your thought process. I beieve you are on to something, but you need to clarify it. I will wait for your next iteation.
Well said Seer.
Bernanke is an idiot.
You needed to go to a foreign college to figure that out?
US educated? If so, then I'd hardly beat my chest if I were you.
As a matter of fact, Bernanke is NO idiot. He's fighting to save a corrupt system; that you don't like that he's using corruption in the process doesn't equate to him being an actual idiot. Only an idiot would think that it was corrupt to use corruption to fix a corrupt system... (and no, the essence of the system is corrupted, it wasn't corrupted along the way)
What is it with these sock puppets, I guess they work in shifts. One goes away and a new one arrives.
the bernank's bluff is going to backfire in his face in myriad ways. At these levels why buy bonds when you can hold cash for very little opportunity lost? Why hold cash if one has debts? Even the dumbarses will figure that one out at these levels. Also, with lt rates so low bank earning power gets f^cked extra primo good.
Buzz, he ain't bluffing. He really believes his CIT doesn't stink, and figures the OWS morons will do their Lib usual and get shot to take the heat off his miscalculation.
the bernank's bluff is that he can keep it all together. he can't. Driving rates down will not lead to increased lending nor will it stem the defaults. It certainly won't lead to increased bank profitablity. He has tried every trick in the book to drive people into stocks and junk bonds and yet all his friends are still stuck with that crap on the books and people are digging bunkers. He can't win.
A bluff requires cognoscente, you are reffering to brain dead Libs, who can't even tell if they are breathing, ala Zombies.
The reason it isnt working is because the government is issuing so much debt all the cash that would be going into stocks and "high yield" bonds is going right back into treasuries. If the government wasn't deficit spending it would probably work much better.. for less dollars.
There are those who would argue that the reason it isn't working is because fedgub budget deficit isn't high enough. They are running on the hamster wheel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYTJ9v2vsaE&feature=relmfu
I agree that is all history now.
The Dutch still haven't been able to re inflate the tulip bubble.
People would rather pay off debt now
That's just the way it is.
Bernanke reminds me of one of those First World War Generals - sending infantry 'over the top' again and again - "just one more big push and we'll win lads" - and then celebrating a 'victory' if they managed to push the Germans back a few yards...
Party Pussy, your rants are getting tiring...
For your education, EVERYTHING that Bernanke does HAS to be a bluff. What, YOU want the inside scoop? You want him to tell GS what he's REALLY going to do?
He's fucking playing the game. AND, news flash, this is how the growth game works, Libs or no Libs.
Yes, kill the Fed, kill the govt. Fine, I'm all for it (which will also kill big business and BIG PARTY POLITICS - oh, rejoice here!), but to pretend that a utopia will magically appear (or could ever appear) or that we'll magically figure out how to generate perpetual growth on a finite planet, well...
Oh, and I'd be careful about calling others morons. I'm not seeing what sets you apart from those that you identify as such.
I hear ya Buzz. I've been sitting on cash so long it should have hatched by now.., but that Greek one year is fun to watch, as is Calipornia.
i feel your pain kaiserhoff. i sat in short term accounts for years. i jumped nto bonds after I read the writing on the wall. I don't have the stomach for it anymore so back to cash. people disparage clownbux but alas, i needs my cash.
Anyone sitting on piles of cash has to have big balls... Dicey proposition for sure.
[Voluntarily] Helping finance bad behavior like govt debt isn't something that I'd want to do, it's like being a drug pusher, and while I'd rather that drugs be legalized (or govt stop criminalizing them) I cannot condone drug use. I'm cursed with a conscience I guess... (and hypocrite is a really ugly word as far as I'm concerned)
Anyone sitting on piles of cash has to have big balls... Dicey proposition for sure...
Many people and corporations have debts they owe and bills to pay. These require cash to service.
Bingo! That is the only (sensible) reason that cash has retained any value. Its usefulness is its ability to service debt. This is why the Fed and their cronies are so strongly motivated to make debt slaves out of as many people as they can. Debtors can be controlled and manipulated, and as long as they exist there will be demand for clownbux.
When this bond market gets momentum to the downside, there won't be enough money in the world to stop it.
So, do you have inside info on how deep the Fed pockets are?
You have til 2014 to answer.
FYI The bond market is several times the total value of the entire United States. I would love to see them try to stop that one. Not even close.
Bush did it!
He forgot to tell the morons to not dry their hair in the microwave.
Nigel Farage to UN: "Barroso in the bunker planning world domination."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7yDu2_lNA4&feature=player_embedded
And to follow up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79VTi2hSyuk&NR=1 Dang I like this guy(in a platonic way). He's like a younger, more British Ron Paul?