This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

As Job Openings Plunge By Most Since May 2010, Beveridge Curve Goes Berserk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The BLS April JOLTS survey was released earlier and it was ugly - of particular attention was the number of "job opening" which collapsed from 3.741MM to 3.416MM, a drop of 325,000, which just happens to be the biggest decline since May 2010. It is also the 6th largest drop in history as the second chart below from John Lohman shows. Adding to the dire jobs picture was the New Hires number which dropped by 160,000, the biggest sequential drop since April 2011, and finally separations, which after months of increases (remember: more separations is a good thing supposedly, meaning people are confident they can find better paying jobs elsewhere), had their biggest drop by 81,000, also the most since April 2011.

April JOLTS summarized:

And in context:

Some more perspectives from Stone McCarthy:

The level of job openings in April fell 325,000, a sharp
declined to 3.416 million. Job openings in government (-42,000) and
private industry (-282,000) were both steep. To some extent the drop is
also the product of seasonal factors that shifted some strength into
February and March, but it does point to a loss of momentum. Government
entities continue to slash jobs on budget constraints.

The number of new hires in April fell 160,000 to 4.175 million. It was almost entirely due to a drop in private sector (-159,000) hires. Government hiring declined only narrowly (-1,000), and was perhaps less effected by weather impacts. The biggest declines were in professional and business services (-34,000), education and healthcare (-35,000), accommodation (-34,000) and leisure and hospitality (-62,000). Industries that normally hire somewhat later in the spring got a jumpstart in March.

Net turnover -- new hires less separations -- has lost momentum in the last two months. It points to more sluggish growth for payrolls in the coming months. The rate of net turnover appears to be falling due to increased layoff activity, as well as softness in hiring. Low layoff activity had been supporting higher readings for net turnovers, but that trend may be fading. Unless new hiring picks up, net turnovers may not be able to sustain the decent readings of the prior 10 months.

Finally: a look at the Beveridge curve:

The Beveridge Curve suggests that structural unemployment has increased compared to the longer historical context, but that it is less entrenched than it was a year or two ago and moving lower. Greater structural unemployment suggests that NAIRU may be higher than previous notions of 5% or so, and the potential GDP trajectory could also be lower than previously thought. Recent updates to the FOMC forecast are looking for somewhat slower growth and a modest outlook for the unemployment rate. The FOMC now forecasts the longer-run unemployment rate at about 5.2% to 6.0%, and the change in real GDP at about 2.3% to 2.6%.

 

So... the NEW FLOW QE?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:28 | 2539589 vmromk
vmromk's picture

Hahaha Bernank, some recovery.

Do me a favor Bernanke.....go FUCK YOURSELF, you motherless half-wit.

Fuck you and your wealth effect.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:35 | 2539619 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

Bullard , Thu May 31, 2012:

" ...

The Federal Reserve could resort to more quantitative easing if the economy deteriorates, but this situation is unlikely as it is on track for a moderate recovery..."

Is it moderate seen with  a microscope ?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/31/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSBRE84U0...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:48 | 2539677 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Bernank laughs at YOU : markets all in the green in the face of dire data! 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:29 | 2539838 HarryM
HarryM's picture

So did it really collapse , or are numbers being skewed in reverse to allow QE?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:28 | 2539593 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

My beverage curve is looking just fine thank you very much.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:28 | 2539594 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Hey, I know...just continue to keep interest rates at zero, while also buying crap assets off of TBTF bank balance sheets, and everything will be fine!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:29 | 2539598 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Its amazing how all the data seemed to line up for a print move.  You'd almost think someone was making this data up if you didn't have confidence in the integrity of TPTB...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:30 | 2539600 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Obama got the car out of the ditch and is headed straight down the road to nowhere.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:09 | 2539770 GasPump
GasPump's picture

He's actually driving all the secret service agents to the local whore house: true story

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/06/19/exclusive-secret-service-agen...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:17 | 2539998 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

That's what you get for wanting to drive a Used country.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:30 | 2539602 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Just another fraud, I see scores of jobs in different listings, except they are always the same ones for months at a time, never changing.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:34 | 2539852 Angel Face
Angel Face's picture

Plenty of McJobs and low paying temp jobs.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:32 | 2539607 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

Thats why we've got to just entrepreneur the s**t out of this place

http://silvervigilante.com

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:34 | 2539615 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Forward......to the unemployment line

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:34 | 2539617 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

The perfect excuse for more welfare for billionaires.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:42 | 2539628 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What, wages actually matter?  Look at that last chart, next up shotgunononomics for everyone.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:38 | 2539629 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

they can print whatever they want..but out here in the real america..i dint see where the recovery is..i take the train to work everyday and in the early am you would see the construction workers (who havent been on the train since late 08) and then the secretaries and legal secretaries and now they are gone as well..just hope that mittens get in to try and turn this mess around..

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:41 | 2539637 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

right, because mittens isn't backed by the same banks and financial houses that stole everything to begin with.  That's a good little sheep.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:49 | 2539679 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Of course he is, but he's not backed by the Communists.  So, the traditional American life will disappear more slowly.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:03 | 2539745 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Still don't know the difference between fascism and communism do you?  What we have now is fascism, and Mitt is more fascist than Obama (who is more communist than fascist, but still fascist).   History has shown on numerous occasions that once fascism takes hold, things actually deteriorate more quickly.  Wake the fuck up.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:21 | 2540016 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

After reading LawofPhysics post, I was curious what exactly is the definition of fascism, so I could wake up. Here is what I found in Wikipedia:

 

"Fascists seek rejuvenation of their nation based on commitment to an organic national community where its individuals are united together as one people in national identity by suprapersonal connections of ancestry, culture, and blood through a totalitarian single-party state that seeks the mass mobilization of a nation through discipline, indoctrination, physical training, and eugenics.[3][4] Fascism seeks to purify the nation of foreign influences that are deemed to be causing degeneration of the nation or of not fitting into the national culture."

 

By this definition, America is not fascist. Nobody running for prez is seeking to promote any singular national identity through "ancestry, culture, and blood."

 

In Greece, the Golden Dawn is doing that, but in America, the Democrats and Republicans are not.

 

Instead, America is promoting multiculturalism as its coalition goal. That is why you have ethnic identity politics; Obama just made a raid on the Hispanic ethnic identity by suspending the law on immigration to get their votes. He raids the Black ethnic identity regularly through his Black Racist proxies, Sharpton, Jackson, Wright, and Holder. He is not melding these ethnic identities together, he is appealing to them through naked ethnic identity pandering. He is without any doubt the most divisive president ever, and that is his re-election strategy.

 

Obama has taken his playbook from George Wallace.

 

The first time Wallace ran for governor of Alabama, he lost. What was his analysis of why he lost, and what he would do in the future to not lose future races?

 

"I will never be out-niggered again."

 

Obama hasn't said it in so many words - at least not publicly - but his mantra is identical except for the target: "I will never be out-whiteyed."

 

Romney is no different in respect to his utilization of ethnic identity appeals; the only change that will occur if he is elected is that MAYBE the Black Racists will be thrown out running the Just Us Department. But even if the next AG is not a Black Racist, the career civil service underlings that really run the department will remain, and the New Black Panther Party can rest easy placing bounties on the heads of White Whatevers, and ghetto mobs can safely continue to target whites for brutalization.

 

In both cases, don't look for anything from the local or state police; as Chicago demonstrates by having more people murdered there so-far this year than have died in the Afghan War, police will no longer risk their life to confront these murderers. A very attractive incentive program offering sizable overtime payments drew only 60 officers.

 

No, they are not going to confront ghetto dwellers attacking whites, especially when the latest mob grew to more than 150 people. And don't forget these urban gangs are organized, disciplined, ruthless - and armed - willing to die for one another. They aren't a mob; they are a quasi-military formation in training.

 

So what we have in America is a police-state, with an imperial presidency issuing Executive Orders, legislating through so-called selective enforcement, bringing down the full weight of prosecution through the creeping utilization of the secret National Security Court - a modern day Star Chamber specifically named for prohibition by the Constitution. But as we all know, the Constitution is no longer valid as the basis for government actions.

 

This political paradigm is supported by extreme ethnic identity demagogues - the Black Racists alluded to above as examples - the over-funded military and security services, the corporate criminals masquerading as respectable business leaders, and the Ultra-Rich who buy their power as the price to pay for keeping the status quo up, and uppity dissenters down.

 

In short, America is not fascist; it is a never-before-seen political model best labeled as a "multicultural police state."

-30-

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 14:33 | 2540299 DosZap
DosZap's picture

MarsInScorpio

Left out some did you not?,also this NEW paradigm has yet to FULLY play its cards.Why do you think all the agencies, and LE have been training as one cohesive unit?.............wait for that moment.

Fascism promotes political violence and war, as forms of direct action that create national regeneration, spirit and vitality.[3][9] Fascists commonly utilize paramilitary organizations for violence against opponents or to overthrow a political system.[10] Fascism opposes multiple ideologies: conservatism, liberalism, and the two major forms of socialismcommunism and social democracy.[11] Fascism claims to represent a synthesis of cohesive ideas previously divided between traditional political ideologies.[12] To achieve its goals, the fascist state purges forces, ideas, people, and systems deemed to be the cause of decadence and degeneration.[13]

The fascist party is a vanguard party designed to initiate a revolution from above and to organize the nation upon fascist principles.[14] The fascist party and state is led by a supreme leader who exercises a dictatorship over the party, the government and other state institutions.[15] Fascism rejects liberal democracy based upon majority rule but fascists deny that they are entirely against democracy.[16] Fascism condemns liberal democracy for basing government legitimacy on quantity rather than quality, and for causing quarreling partisan politics.[17] Fascists claim that their ideology is a trans-class movement, advocating resolution to domestic class conflict within a nation to secure national solidarity.[18] It claims that its goal of cultural nationalization of society emancipates the nation's proletariat, and promotes the assimilation of all classes into proletarian national culture.[18] While fascism opposes domestic class conflict, fascism believes that bourgeois-proletarian conflict primarily exists in national conflict between proletarian nations versus bourgeois nations; fascism declares its opposition to bourgeois nations and declares its support for the victory of proletarian nations.[19]

Fascism advocates a state-controlled and regulated mixed economy, the principle economic goal of fascism is to achieve national autarky to secure national independence, through protectionist and interventionist economic policies.[20] It promotes the use and primacy of regulated private property and private enterprise contingent upon service to the nation, but where private enterprise and private property are failing, inefficient, or unable to fulfill fascist goals, it supports the use of state enterprise and state property in those circumstances.[20] At the same time, fascists are hostile to financial capital, plutocracy, and "the power of money".[20] It supports criminalization of strikes by employees and lockouts by employers because it deems these acts as prejudicial to the national community.[21]

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:06 | 2539759 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

He changes his mind so much that sometimes I can't tell what he is.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:42 | 2539648 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

NYSE is up 107.....Bullish!

lmao.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:43 | 2539650 Shibumi2
Shibumi2's picture

I notice people everywhere at every time of day.

 

When I first entered the workforce, it was unusual to see a lot of traffic during working/school hours. There was a definite ebb and flow of retail/traffic.

 

Now it doesn't matter what time....there are people EVERYWHERE.

 

WHo the hell still works?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:53 | 2539917 GasPump
GasPump's picture

more people are working part time jobs and as a result, more off days. that's my theory anyway

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:55 | 2539920 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

Why work? Taxes support nothing good anyway!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:45 | 2539663 BurgundianRon
BurgundianRon's picture

When I was young I liked roller coasters....now they just give me a screaming headache!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:46 | 2539669 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Unexpectedly, the word "unexpectedly", does not appear in the article!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:47 | 2539673 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i knew in my heart dobieGillis was right the first time he spoke to me...

flows and fungibility!

the commies have been winning ever since the banksters passed the FED Res Act for them 100 years ago

they're gonna stop now?  why? 

did you see where the chinese banksters were gonna start bindling loans and selling them as securities?  just 6-7 Bil to start...? is that the camel's nostril...?

they will loan the US citizenism money to buy them

trust me!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:11 | 2539780 potlatch
potlatch's picture

Citizism is stronger and more clever than you realize!

 

Summer county fairs are coming, and I assure you there will be Toyotas we will hammer with sledgehammers for a donation to the local Diocese, so I can assure you the Chinese will be watchingly that closely my friend!  I do not think they will enjoy seeing their much pride Toyata being hit by much stronger US citizisms!

 

Don't tease the panther!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:52 | 2539690 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe it's just me, but when I hear something about the "Beveridge Curve [Going] Berserk", I just think... the outcome can't be good...

Reminds me of many Friday nights on the college campus... That "Beveridge Curve" quite frequently went berzerk & there was always hell to pay afterwards... 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:55 | 2539706 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

O.T.

War is a racket:

The two cranes, which have been floating toward Brunswick County since they left South Korea on April 9, will be installed at the Army's Sunny Point Military Ocean Terminal.

The brand-new cranes are part of a $27.5 million contract that will help Sunny Point get bombs and bullets loaded on ships faster.

MOTSU already completed a project to modernize the wharf, which was designed to make loading and unloading ammo more efficient, secure and safer. The terminal handles 90 percent of the ammunition that supplies deployed troops.

http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20120619/ARTICLES/120619686/1177?T...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:56 | 2539712 lucas991
lucas991's picture

The Beveridge curve has been like that for over 2 years, it's nothing new...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:04 | 2539752 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

Seeing this is driving my Whiskey Curve hyperbolic.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:07 | 2539766 potlatch
potlatch's picture

innovation and hard work are the engines of the American Dream.

 

 

just thought I'd speak in a dead language for a sec

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:16 | 2539797 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but innovation still requires funding and capital and resource investment.  With all the capital mis-allocation and mal-investment (printing to pay bankers and debt) I don't see much of that happening.

The only other way to get real innovators to work for free is to go to war, oh wait...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:41 | 2539878 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Two peices of bad economic news today, yet the Dow holds it gains?  I thought the market had already priced in QE the last couple of weeks?  So what will happen tomorrow when no new QE is announced?  The market will fall 50 points, then rally on rumors that Jim Cramer got his perscription of Viagra refilled?

When this whole house of cards comes down, and it WILL come down, it is going to be catastrophic...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:42 | 2539881 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

There're are plenty of jobs to protect The Criminal Bankster Cabal in the National Security Fascist States of America.  It's a Global Criminal Crime Syndicate which originates in The City of London of which Wall Street is just an extension of. 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:49 | 2539905 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Shhh! The multitudes of sheeple disguised as ZH-ers don't know the difference between fascism and a hole in the ground, so don't confuse them.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:47 | 2539888 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Beveridge Curve? Not taught in business schools, at least not in the 1990's before magical thinking replaced actual data.

Two components to this measure, unemployment rate and job openings. I have yet to see anything like a REAL unemployment rate other than maybe Shadowstats, and job openings are theoretical, they only exist as corporate wish lists; WANTED, married white christian male under 30 with FICO of 775 or higher and a masters degree willing to build quantum monopole detectors out of cat shit, pay commiserate with minimum wage, no benefits.  Must have 12 years experience and excellent refs. 

Yeah, there are MILLIONS of job openings for people that do not exist. Many employers holding out for employee attributes they cannot legally advertise for. Labor and employment are like any other market where supply and demand are factors, if they wanted to fill those jobs they would raise the offer till a qualified candidate materialized to fill it. My experience in the last few years is that employers see a high unemployment rate and they respond by cutting pay and benefit packages, especially for positions they can easily fill with temps or with other current staff taking up the slack.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:48 | 2539900 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

           "For we are opposed, around the world, by? a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy, that relies primarily on covet means for expanding it's fear of influence....It is a system which has conscripted, vast material and human resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific, and political operations."

        - President John F. Kennedy

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:02 | 2539942 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Paging Doctor Pogo, paging Dr. Pogo...irony in Aisle 666....

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:58 | 2539933 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Year ove year profit growth has continued to shrink.

 

You think businesses don't look forwards when hiring?  The US jobs market declines when year over year profits fall below the 7-8% range.  We are well below that.

 

The BEA had us at 7.92% at the end of the 4th quarter 2011 and 7.35% at the end of the first quarter 2012.  I know the first quarter will be revised downward and sharply.

 

There will be no net job growth for 2012.  Bad news for Barry and company.

 

 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:02 | 2539945 Skip
Skip's picture

The MSM and the GOP never address the role of IMMIGRATION, talking legal here, in the displacement of White workers in PARTICULAR. It makes no sense to have millions of peoples from third world coming in when Americans have lost their jobs. All that Affirmative Action and visa stuff, Whites go to the back of the line when it comes to all the jobs, scholarships, promotions. Just the way it is.

Today's news:

Asian Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States. They are more satisfied than the general public with their lives, finances and the direction of the country, and they place more value than other Americans do on marriage, parenthood, hard work and career success, according to a comprehensive new nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 21:48 | 2541614 dolph9
dolph9's picture

For every one Asian overachiever in the U.S. displacing a white middle class person, there are 10 Mexicans displacing 5 white working class people and putting 5 blacks in prison.

You are screwed more than you think, and wrong to place the blame on people who actually have some wealth, even though it's tiny compared to the billions stolen by your Jew and WASP overlords.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:24 | 2540017 onebir
onebir's picture

Before we make a big deal of the drop in opening: the series is seasonally adjusted.

If the winter/early spring figures were being artifically boosted by seasonals factors that are too this drop could just be the unwind.

Of course this doesn't mean things are great. It would mean the labour market was weaker than indicated by the published stats. But at least not dropping of a cliff.

The April 11 monthy changes for openings, new hires and separations looks consistent with this. Back out the seasonals is left as an exercise to the trader ;-)

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 13:46 | 2540126 sschu
sschu's picture

WTI drops from near $110 to $83 in a month.  Now the UE numbers are lousy.  

What is the answer?  More free money for Wall Street!  

Elections in November, Europe on the brink, no one knows what is going on in China, war in the Middle East, Japan living in a pool of Cesium.  

One of these days, if this continues, Bennie is really going to rev up that helicopter and see what happens.  Maybe not this time, but soon enough.

We are mad, blind and mad, and our day of reckoning approaches.

sschu

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 14:35 | 2540309 DosZap
DosZap's picture

sschu

Elections in November, Europe on the brink, no one knows what is going on in China, war in the Middle East, Japan living in a pool of Cesium.  

Well, Syria, Russia, and China are NOW planning WAR games as a threesome.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 16:29 | 2540753 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

But yet "the private sector is doing fine"

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!