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Jobless Claims 1K "Better" Than Expected 405K, To Be Revised To "Miss" Next Week; Record Trade Deficit With China

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In today's weekly dose of BS from the BLS, we get the previous week's massive beat of 401K revised to 405K, cutting the 410K estimate beat in half. But what is important is that the expectation for this week of 405K was once again "massively beaten" by a whopping 1K at 404K. Of course, next week this number will be revised to 408K meaning the consensus was  missed but no robots will care. As for the non-noise, non seasonally adjusted claims soared by 66,442 in the week from 332,394 to 398,836. Spin cycle to commence imminently. In some modestly good news, the "cliffers", those on EUCs and Extended benefits, which have declined by 1.3 million in the prior year, increased modestly by 2K, meaning those playing Xbox and collecting benefits actually rose for the week. In other news, the Trade Balance came in line with expectations, at a deficit of 45.6 billion. However, last month's number which gave all the banks hope that Q3 GDP was going to be a whopping beat and got so many Lemmings to re-revise their GDP forecast higher, was reduced from -44.8 billion to -45.6 billion, meaning Q3 GDP is right back down where it belongs. Most notably, the Chinese trade deficit hit a politically convenient record, increasing from $27.0 billion in July to $29.0 billion in August. Exports increased $0.2 billion (primarily soybeans, fish and shellfish, and nonferrous metals) to $8.4 billion, while imports increased $2.2 billion (primarily other household goods and toys, games, and sporting goods) to $37.4 billion. Expect Chuck Schumer's head to explode in 5...4...3...

A (not so) pretty picture:

Another not so pretty picture:

And more from the US Department of Truth:

Goods and Services

  • Exports decreased to $177.6 billion in August from $177.7 billion in July (revised). Goods were $126.7 billion in August, down from $126.8 billion in July. Services were $50.9 billion in August, virtually unchanged from July.
  • Imports decreased to $223.2 billion in August from $223.3 billion in July. Goods were $188.1 billion in August, virtually unchanged from July. Sservices were $35.1 billion in August, down from $35.3 billion in July.
  • For goods, the deficit was $61.4 billion in August, up from $61.3 billion in July. For services, the surplus was $15.8 billion in August, up from $15.6 billion in July.

Goods by Category (Census basis)

  • Exports of goods from July to August were virtually unchanged. Increases occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.8 billion); consumer goods ($0.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.0 billion) and capital goods ($0.4 billion).
  • The July to August increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.9 billion); other goods ($0.9 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in consumer goods ($0.8 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.7 billion); and capital goods ($0.3 billion).

Services by Category

  • Exports of services were virtually unchanged from July to August. An increase in other private services ($0.2 billion), which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services, was offset by a decrease in travel ($0.2 billion). Changes in the other categories of services exports were small and offsetting.
  • The July to August decrease in imports of services was more than accounted for by decreases in travel ($0.1 billion), other transportation ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services, and passenger fares ($0.1 billion). An increase in other private services ($0.1 billion) was partly offsetting. Changes in the other categories of services imports were small.

Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

  • The goods deficit with Canada decreased from $3.3 billion in July to $2.4 billion in August. Exports increased $2.7 billion (primarily automobiles, parts, and accessories) to $25.0 billion, while imports increased $1.8 billion (primarily automotive, parts and accessories and crude oil) to $27.4 billion.
  • The goods deficit with China increased from $27.0 billion in July to $29.0 billion in August. Exports increased $0.2 billion (primarily soybeans, fish and shellfish, and nonferrous metals) to $8.4 billion, while imports increased $2.2 billion (primarily other household goods and toys, games, and sporting goods) to $37.4 billion.
  • The goods deficit with Japan increased from $5.2 billion in July to $6.7 billion in August. Exports increased $0.1 billion (primarily wheat, metallurgical grade coal, and organic chemicals) to $5.4 billion, while imports increased $1.5 billion (primarily automobiles, parts, and accessories and industrial machines) to $12.1 billion.
 

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Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:50 | 1768942 g
g's picture

And so it continues.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:00 | 1768962 g
g's picture

You know shumer is a corrupt idiot and OWS should campaign against him. A few weeks ago he was flagrantly threatening a business deal with his influence here in Rochester.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:00 | 1768977 ratso
ratso's picture

Sometimes there really is no drama to be found in the numbers and a cigar is just a cigar.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:07 | 1768987 g
g's picture

Indeed, no drama, as this is the new normal, but it is pretty sad none the less.

Seems to me chucky should be doing what he can to encourage small business and make New York state competitive, instead of picking fights with China.

 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:10 | 1768994 Panic Panic Panic
Panic Panic Panic's picture

Yahoo finance says:"Initial claims stayed close to the 400,000 mark usually associated with some improvement in the jobs market for a third straight week."  Used to be 250,000, then 300,000, then 350,000, then 375,000.  Do they think we're that stupid? Oh, wait.  Most of the zombies out there ARE that stupid.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:15 | 1769009 g
g's picture

It is the all pervasive propaganda the like of which are inspired by CNBC and the other cheerleaders. Normalcy bias at its best. Who would have thunk that 400k could be viewed positively. We have watched all of this change over the last few years. The are only a few good places to get a measured perspective, ZH is one of those.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:23 | 1769042 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Speaking of shills and rumor-peddling, since Liesman dropped that EuroBomb rumor last week, we haven't seen hide nor hair ( all three of them ) of the esteemed, Kremlin-educated, Russian-speaking Fedologist. 

 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:20 | 1769029 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Most people dont even pay any attention anymore.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:24 | 1769050 g
g's picture

That is true. Most people are still to comfortable to consider the plight of others, no one will pay attention. Also most people are still tuned into the MSM and are bombarded by the relentless drivel that all is well and is improving. A critical mass will eventually be reached, awareness and acknowledgment of the situation will come rushing to the forefront. The question is, will it be to late by then, things will probably be very bad indeed by that time.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:31 | 1769071 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I disagree. I was at a college planning night at my son's High School last week, and from the conversations I overheard people are very aware that money is tight and things aren't rosy in the outside world. Also, the school counselors made a point of recommending lower cost alternatives such as going to community college for the first two years and of minimizing student loans, which I found encouraging.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:39 | 1769095 g
g's picture

I do not dispute that awareness is growing. But the critical mass has not been reached. Additionaly, what you mention is only the start, the real knowledge that will matter is the understanding of the Fed, fractional reserve lending, debt based money, the bought and paid for corrupt congress and president. Also the broken two party system, most people are still caught up in the left versus right argument, when in fact there is no difference. Maybe perhaps that picking an ism (communism, progressivism, conservatism, liberterianism) is an epic fail. These are the topics that should be the backbone of our dialogue. When the issues come to the forefront then we will really be discussing what matters.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 11:59 | 1769825 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

The awareness is tiny and the awareness of the scope of the problem is nonexistent. I would liken it to passengers on the Titanic noticing water on the floor of their state room and dealing with the problem by raising their luggage off the floor and putting on rubber boots. Dealing with it.

The problem isn't even the Titanic sinking, its like if we chained all the boats in the world together knowing the biggest ships were single hulled and made of shoddy materials and enjoyed traveling over shallow rocky bottomed waters.

The only way out is to unhitch your boat from the system of destruction before it drags you to the bottom.

On television its sunny days and calm seas 24x7 - thats the point of television, it is not to transmit information, it is to transmit propaganda - economic, government, corporate propaganda to saturate its audience. There are no poor or unemployed on television. For decades there were no black people on television. It is a false world meant to paint a false view point.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:22 | 1769038 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Yeah - CNBS too, but I think the source is Reuters.

"Initial claims stayed close to the 400,000 mark usually associated with some improvement in the jobs market for a third straight week."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44887709

Usually? - since when!

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 10:38 | 1769420 William113
William113's picture

Yahoo uses Jooish marketing. Lies Lies and more Lies.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:23 | 1769046 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

If you rotate the "US trade balance with China" graph 90 degrees, you get the 'total household debt' graph.  bahahaa.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:51 | 1768944 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Will Schumer's exploding head be a pay-per-view event?

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:59 | 1768947 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

First off the sooner that maggot Chuck "Never met a hedge fund manager I wouldn't blow" Schumer goes away the better.

Second, in addition to the millions of people to fall off of the EUC this year I recently read that 6 million more will lose benefits in 2012 with 1.6 Million losing them in January alone!

And since there is 0 chance of stimulus or extended benefits being approved from CONgress that means the New Year is gonna start with a huge Thud. Add that with 4th QTR negative growth and accelerated job layoffs and 2012 is gonna suck real hard....

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:15 | 1769011 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

gonna suck indeed.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:53 | 1768950 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Crap, can't tell if this is good or bad anymore. Bastards give us something!

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:54 | 1768952 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Let this fraud continue

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:58 | 1768970 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Wow! Although this is true because we will finally realize the Depression we should have realized 4 years ago the fear mongering used by this dope is unbelieveable. Nice post!

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 12:55 | 1770044 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Biden and his ilk only hope that this leads to violence so that they can institute martial law.

They're gonna need to throw the first punch because not enough people are stupid enough to fall for it...I hope.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:56 | 1768954 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I don't know, this is smelling like a recovery to me.  Data has been beating expectations lately.  Change I can believe in

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:59 | 1768973 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Yeah, a truly rip-roaring cocaine-and-prostitutes party-til-dawn economic recovery.

Tell that to the millions of us Amerikkkans who either are or live with a long-term unemployed person who has exhausted all of their unemployment benefits and can't find a goddamned job to (quite literally) save their lives.

Show me one piece of meaningful and unmolested economic data that has beat expectations lately.

You can't. Because it doesn't exist.

Smell that.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:03 | 1768982 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

well, data had to beat expectations eventually, since it has been beaten down so furiously over the past months...unfortuantely that doesn't necessarily mean we are recovering

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:34 | 1769089 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

"Beat expectations" is a phrase used by liars and charlatans. How about "beat numbers from the same month last year"? You remind of the glory days of Cisco when every quarter its earnings would beat expectations by a penny and the stock would soar.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 12:39 | 1769986 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Sounds like Apple's stock nowaways

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:56 | 1768957 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

I love the smell of BS in the morning

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 12:57 | 1770049 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Berry smoothies?

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:56 | 1768961 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Wow, lots of people trying to front run the QE3 trade.  Futures are rising on these QE3 friendly numbers.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:13 | 1769003 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

As long as everyone realizes 'QE3' signals the end. I dont think we'll see it though, instead they get out of this by start of WW3, theyre all jumping up and down in their seats to 'Bomb Tehran right NOW!' ...this ends with everyone losing everything and they wont be able to do a thing about it, it will happen so suddenly.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 08:57 | 1768964 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Don't forget that the US Congress passed 3 different Free Trade agreements on Wednesday (involving South Korea, Panama and Columbia). Considering that the US has recorded a net trade deficit (goods and services combined) every single month since January of 1992, this sounds like another opportunity to export wealth.

The great sucking sound continues...

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:01 | 1768980 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I love the sound of sucking in the morning!

Don't you fret about Amerikkkan jobs. There will be plenty of them available once we get the concentration and re-education camps up for business.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 12:55 | 1770042 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Roubini and friends say its a global depression and offer a way out. Roubini says the problem is 3 fold, an excess of labor, an excess of capital and an excess of productive capacity - all caused by decades of policies worldwide.

Traditionally these 3 problems are resolved through war. Roubini offers a different Way Forward. I hope this paper gets discussed and read for likely it is either this plan or some variation of it or global war.

http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/the_way_forward

a link to the entire 35 page pdf appears at the bottom of the link above, which is a synopsis of his plan.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:00 | 1768976 Nom de Guerre
Nom de Guerre's picture

1K better?  Bullish.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:02 | 1768981 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Recovery Creep still going on...

MSM reporting that "initial claims consistently below 400K are evidence of a growing economy"

Problem is, last week they were saying 375K was the magic number

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/10/06/business-us-unemployment-benefits-ahead-of-the-bell_8720158.html

Previously, it was 350K that showed signs of growth:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/24/news/economy/jobless_claims/index.htm

And in September 2009, they were saying 325K was the magic number:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/business/economy/11jobs.html

 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:14 | 1769004 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Excellent post. I have noticed that the magic number of weekly unemployment claims that represents a "healthy" labor market has been steadily rising over the past few years. Pretty soon, nobody having a job will be considered bullish. The Fed can simply print wealth...

100% FUBAR.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:17 | 1769014 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

400K job losses per week are a sure sign the economy is GROWING! Only americans could believe that is true.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:25 | 1769055 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

It's probably true in China and India, but not in a country with a workforce of 132M.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:29 | 1769067 taraxias
taraxias's picture

what brother SheepDog said

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:08 | 1768991 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

when I see this number under 200 I will have a faint sense of recovery, not prior...unless 400 is the new normal in which case it is sad indeed gentlemen

Regardless of the bloody number if US Corps are to be competitive in any manufacturing sectore those jobs will be outsourced...no questions asked, Corps couldn't care less about the US worker so your fate is already doomed, just hope your economy can create alternative ventures to employ the workforce...PRAY

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:10 | 1768996 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What does it matter? Spin all they like, fact is we're in a depression, and the retail investor is gone. Wall St is playing on the handball court by itself. The clock winds down.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:13 | 1769001 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

= to $325 billion a year deficit with China.  Greater than all other nations combined.  = to $1,000 for every man, women, child.  Jobs impact?  naw.....

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:19 | 1769026 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If theres this 'QE3' shoved in the torpedo tube ready to launch and the insiders know it....then why the constant desperate spin to shine terrible numbers as positives?

Why dont they just let things drop, then theyre free and clear to do as much QE3 as TBTF and Wall St media ever wanted. 

Doesnt add up.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:33 | 1769087 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Yes, yes.....I do believe this is bullish~! It could have been 500,000 but it was only 405,000! The trade deficit could have been expressed in the 100 squillions, but it was much lower than that! Billions? That's nothing! We increase the deficit everyday by much more than that by simply existing! This is great news, and I see green shoots all over the place. Full steam ahead, the markets will soar on this news. YAY!

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:34 | 1769090 inkarri9
inkarri9's picture

Hello All.  Does anyone else find it quite comical that whenever a number misses or beats expectations, CNBS uses the word "unexpected"?  For example, this morning I received an alert from CNBSon my phone saying that "Initial jobless claims "unexpectedly" fell by 1,000 to 404,000". 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:37 | 1769103 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

At -$45 Billion/month the money is leaking out of the Country as fast as the FED can print it almost.  Unless the FED stops giving the Country free money to give away to the rest of the World this downward spiral will continue. It's grade three math. "Johnny has 100 Apples and every month Johnny gives away an Apple. How long til Johnny is flat ass broke?"

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:37 | 1769104 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

+66,000?!! Holy crap! Brings us to +395,000 new claims...and we need 150000 to keep pace with population. This keeps up the October participation rate will tank and NILF will have to add 400,000+.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:38 | 1769114 inkarri9
inkarri9's picture

Front page and center on CNBC, the headline reads "Jobless claims holds steady; Trade deficit with China SWELLS" yet on as Cramer and Pisani were talking, there was a line at the bottom of the screen that read "Trade with China narrows for 2nd straight month"...again, just funny. 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 09:46 | 1769157 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

They throw a bone on a string with these figures. These statistics don't mean a thing to the people living in the streets. The update on "The Real Weapon of Mass Destruction: POVERTY" is almost ready. My second cup of coffee and the real;ly good sarcasm are kicking in.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 10:33 | 1769392 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

B(L)S
Just imagine a job where you can be wrong almost all of the time with a massive, statistically impossible error rate... and not get fired...

I wannabe a B(L)S Birth/Death Ratio expert statistical modeler...

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 12:55 | 1770039 Pete15
Pete15's picture

See this is why the Chinese property bubble being a problem is confusing to me. We are still buying their stuff, they have our $ to buy metals, oil and land in countries and obviously they produce everything even when the bubble pops shouldnt it be very minor compared to Dubi and the USA. 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 13:10 | 1770089 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

The thing is China is a billion people, yet the new middle class is "only" 150-200 million people. So when most of the country lives in poverty it is politically unstable. If bad fortune falls on China and a famine occurs, things will end badly with more fallout world wide.

Greenspan himself said a real estate collapse in the U.S. would not be economically significant because real estate markets are local. The banking industry and wall street managed to make real estate a global market with resulting global collapse. A Chinese real estate collapse would drain enomorous amounts of wealth from the Chinese middle class and lead to unrest a collapse in domestic consumption and more pressure to dump cheap goods in the west to pump up the Chinese economy.

 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 13:38 | 1770166 Pete15
Pete15's picture

Thank you, Im guessing that will hurt the Gold market too then since there will be a lot broke Chinese 

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 13:10 | 1770087 pinqy
pinqy's picture

BLS has nothing to do with the weekly UI claims report.  It kind of hurts your credibility that you keep saying it's a BLS report.  If you don't even know what agency issues a report, how on earth can your comments on it be trusted?

The UI claims report comes from the Employment and Training Administration of the Dept of Labor.  Note that BLS has its own domain of www.bls.gov which is completely seperate from the main Dept of Labor domain of www.dol.gov

 

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