Jobless Claims 1K "Better" Than Expected 405K, To Be Revised To "Miss" Next Week; Record Trade Deficit With China

Tyler Durden's picture

In today's weekly dose of BS from the BLS, we get the previous week's massive beat of 401K revised to 405K, cutting the 410K estimate beat in half. But what is important is that the expectation for this week of 405K was once again "massively beaten" by a whopping 1K at 404K. Of course, next week this number will be revised to 408K meaning the consensus was  missed but no robots will care. As for the non-noise, non seasonally adjusted claims soared by 66,442 in the week from 332,394 to 398,836. Spin cycle to commence imminently. In some modestly good news, the "cliffers", those on EUCs and Extended benefits, which have declined by 1.3 million in the prior year, increased modestly by 2K, meaning those playing Xbox and collecting benefits actually rose for the week. In other news, the Trade Balance came in line with expectations, at a deficit of 45.6 billion. However, last month's number which gave all the banks hope that Q3 GDP was going to be a whopping beat and got so many Lemmings to re-revise their GDP forecast higher, was reduced from -44.8 billion to -45.6 billion, meaning Q3 GDP is right back down where it belongs. Most notably, the Chinese trade deficit hit a politically convenient record, increasing from $27.0 billion in July to $29.0 billion in August. Exports increased $0.2 billion (primarily soybeans, fish and shellfish, and nonferrous metals) to $8.4 billion, while imports increased $2.2 billion (primarily other household goods and toys, games, and sporting goods) to $37.4 billion. Expect Chuck Schumer's head to explode in 5...4...3...

A (not so) pretty picture:

Another not so pretty picture:

And more from the US Department of Truth:

Goods and Services

  • Exports decreased to $177.6 billion in August from $177.7 billion in July (revised). Goods were $126.7 billion in August, down from $126.8 billion in July. Services were $50.9 billion in August, virtually unchanged from July.
  • Imports decreased to $223.2 billion in August from $223.3 billion in July. Goods were $188.1 billion in August, virtually unchanged from July. Sservices were $35.1 billion in August, down from $35.3 billion in July.
  • For goods, the deficit was $61.4 billion in August, up from $61.3 billion in July. For services, the surplus was $15.8 billion in August, up from $15.6 billion in July.

Goods by Category (Census basis)

  • Exports of goods from July to August were virtually unchanged. Increases occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.8 billion); consumer goods ($0.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.0 billion) and capital goods ($0.4 billion).
  • The July to August increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.9 billion); other goods ($0.9 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in consumer goods ($0.8 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.7 billion); and capital goods ($0.3 billion).

Services by Category

  • Exports of services were virtually unchanged from July to August. An increase in other private services ($0.2 billion), which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services, was offset by a decrease in travel ($0.2 billion). Changes in the other categories of services exports were small and offsetting.
  • The July to August decrease in imports of services was more than accounted for by decreases in travel ($0.1 billion), other transportation ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services, and passenger fares ($0.1 billion). An increase in other private services ($0.1 billion) was partly offsetting. Changes in the other categories of services imports were small.

Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

  • The goods deficit with Canada decreased from $3.3 billion in July to $2.4 billion in August. Exports increased $2.7 billion (primarily automobiles, parts, and accessories) to $25.0 billion, while imports increased $1.8 billion (primarily automotive, parts and accessories and crude oil) to $27.4 billion.
  • The goods deficit with China increased from $27.0 billion in July to $29.0 billion in August. Exports increased $0.2 billion (primarily soybeans, fish and shellfish, and nonferrous metals) to $8.4 billion, while imports increased $2.2 billion (primarily other household goods and toys, games, and sporting goods) to $37.4 billion.
  • The goods deficit with Japan increased from $5.2 billion in July to $6.7 billion in August. Exports increased $0.1 billion (primarily wheat, metallurgical grade coal, and organic chemicals) to $5.4 billion, while imports increased $1.5 billion (primarily automobiles, parts, and accessories and industrial machines) to $12.1 billion.