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Jobless Claims Miss, Durable Goods Better Than Expected
And so the volatility continues: initial claims go from 402K to an upward revised 356K, to 377K, on expectations of 370K. The swings in this data series are getting as big as those in the stock market on those rare occasions when reality sets in. The miss is in line with the Fed perceived weakness in the economy. Continuing claims also missed coming at 3554K up from an upward revised 3466K, higher than expectations of 3500K. A whopping 146K dropped out of extended claims: in fact, in the past year the unemployed collecting post 6 month benefits either EUCs or Extended Benefits have plunged from 4.6 million to 3.4 million. As for last week's massive drop of nearly 50K initial claims, we learn that somehow it was New York to thank for this, with 27.7K less claims than the week before due to "Fewer layoffs in the transportation, educational, and construction industries." How about layoffs in the financial services industry, and also how much do those jobs pay vs "transportation, educational and construction" jobs? What however does not justify the Fed's ZIRP through 2015 or so, is the Durable Goods number which came at 3.0%, on expectations of 2.0%, down from an upward revised 4.3%. The bulk of this was in airplane orders thanks to Boeing as noted previously. However what was surprising is that Durable Goods ex transportation came in at a blistering 2.1% on Exp of 0.9%, and Capital Goods Orders ex Non-Def and Aircraft which rose 2.9% on expectations of 1.0%. However since the Fed has made it clear it will boost its balance sheet, and as of today the implied increase is over $800 billion, at the smallest whiff of trouble, the risk bubble is in full on mode as bad news is good news, and good news is better news.
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If bad is good, and good is better, whats no news? Best?
S&P's put in a new year high on the job print LOL - http://hedge.ly/ydd038
I think I have found my clarity for 2012...
#1 - The Fed and other central banks HAVE to print - they have no other choice (at least the way they see it)
#2 - That "money" will end up in the equity markets (as well as treasuries)
Looks like the only thing that will bring this market down is a systemic issue with Europe. Which seems likely with either Greece or Portugal....
Just remember that the stock market isn't a real market, and isn't based on fundamentals. It's a video game played by computers... I love being a contrarian...but the easiest way to make money with this "game" is to play lemming and follow the current trends, which seem higher for the time being.
The end of broadcast media (including the Internet). That's the only day we'll see "no news," in its current form.
what's that? 20 years running that Boeing carries the durable goods orders?
HELP WANTED
BiCheZ only need apply
Do I need to tuck my hair up under my hat?
L0L!!!
...can't you read the sign?
I'm alive and doing fine!
I am strarting a "hope" movement. Hoping the sh*t hits the fan as quickly as possible so that we can get to the other side as quickly as possible, recover in a world without the criminal banking element. It wouldbe worth the pain to get rid of them.
Obviously their goal is to make the pain and fear last as long as possible ...
Where's the Top Calling Troll when you need him?
Seriously, where has he been?
I agree with the above, yet, before that we'll see a "decent" sell off!
Well then, welcome to Japan 2.0. ZIRP forever is all that now matters. The financial pricks are getting their heroin indefinately. Hedge accordingly.
Anyone have a thoughtful analysis on the time line for a new world reserve currency?
according to lindsey williams, by the end of 2012. SDR's will be touted as the new currency, PM's plummet, panic selling en masse. globalists scoop in, buy on the cheap. then, a digital currency, backed by gold to be brought in! quite simple, really!
Was thinking the same thing, but more like 2014. Might take a while for Europe to get resolved and I don't see how the great gold revaluation and SDR can become a reality until the western world is all on the same page.
And how much do you want to bet that those dropping off the rolls didn't actually find work.
The only number that matters with regards to employment is the percentage of people employed vs. total potential workforce size. Everything else is spin.
We're fucked.
Ultimately, it's a good thing. Many of them will be forced to join the black market economy in order to survive, which will expedite their awakening. Will they be the type of people to buy Treasury bonds if they're not paying taxes? Doubt it.
Question: Was Rosenberg and other bears invited to Davos?
I see that even CNBC fruits like Andrew Ross Sorkin are now cavorting in Davos this morning, hanging out with the PigMen and Illuminati enjoying exoctic call girls, massages, card games, etc.
Where are:
Charles Biderman?
Joe Granville?
Bob Janjuah?
Art Cashin?
Hugh Hendry?
Oh, I forgot, they are still stuck on the New York Subway clutching their cups of Dunkin Donuts coffee.
LOL......
What a great meeting to have no disagreement
This thread is now about space aliens.
Reptoids?
+1 Robo, that was pretty funny actually
hey R_T!
+ i see the rumors of your death were greatly exaggerated! +
or are you the first "born again" zeroHead?
Answer:
They are busy dealing with facts and real data, so don't have time for trips to Davos where no real progress or exchange of honest ideas is taking place.
Other than that, STFU robo.
We can now add 1.2 million to snap
QE in April?
hero
I guess 10% unemployment is the new normal....unless you use shadow stats. The "real" new normal is about 17% with peaks towards 25%.
No, it's only 8.5% we've made improvements. LOL.
robo, I do enjoy your posts wish there were more like you..the wall st game is rigged and you are playing on the right side ..just 2008 made me stay out, when will those unk funds/hedges/gov/banks that tanked us then pull the big plug.. any Idea Robo??
Asking Robo for a prediction is like asking Greenspan for his take on the housing market in 2004. Don't bother.
Do NOT feed the troll!
Yes, bad news move aside. We don't need jobs. All we need are good numbers. If you have access to unlimited digital zeros where's the end? The elites will keep this up while they posture and run around behine the scenes panicking trying figure out how to fuck us next.
Just wait till you see the headlines when the DOW breaches 13k. It's acting like a magnet now. I don't know if it will happen but won't be surprised. What's the trash talk on low volume? Hasn't anyone figured out they can easily manipulate it higher with no volume?
It's ashame some of us have been screaming bloody murder before 10k and here we are 3,000 pts later.
Don't take this the wrong way, I'm the biggest pessimist you'll find but it is what it is.
A comment on SA about the durable good surge....
" http://bit.ly/A9YmDt
"On September 8, 2010, President Obama announced a new set of economic stimulus proposals, one of which involves extending and expanding the “bonus” depreciation rules enacted as part of the 2008 and 2009 stimulus packages and extended by the Small Business Jobs Act of 2010. Specifically, the President proposes increasing the bonus depreciation deduction for qualifying investment to 100 percent (i.e. full expensing) for purchases made between September 8, 2010 and December 31, 2011."
"Qualified investments include most business equipment and software, but not most structures. More specifically, qualified investments include tangible property with a recovery period of 20 years or less, water utility property, certain computer software, and qualified leasehold improvement property. In the aggregate, gross investment in equipment and software accounts for roughly 40 percent of all gross domestic investment."
Capital Goods were ordered at the end of the year to take advantage of the tax credit which has now expired. This was similar to the Cash for Clunkers policy but was specifically for business.
The question is has this credit temporarily pulled forward demand from the future?
The hangover from Handouts for Houses shows how interfering with the market by using temporary incentives can have a negative longer term impact or as I like to call it the Law of Unintended Consequences."
None of that matters. The numbers are better. That's all that matters. They've certainly held this POS together much longer than I expected possible.
This matters? SSDD. Now here's some real (LOL!) news!
http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/25/miley-cyrus-cake-tease/
Damn. I gotta go chop me some wood!
one problem is baby boomers - they must divest cash in IRA's 401k's which means a drag on the market here and in older population countries like Japan. the Fed and gov thus must pump up the market to off set this demographic..any real correction will cause massive risk off in this group. so print and borrow until some evil pigmen decide to cash out.
The US Corporations are now firing people instead of laying them off -- fired workers can't collect UI. Management has raised the percentage of workers that get the lowest work appraisals. Appraisals are assigned on a bell curve and the quotas of low rated employees is enforced by HR. So if the company is assured that 15% of workers will get low ratings, they know how many people they can fire -- then send the job to India or China of course.
I know this is happening at my old Fortune 100 company. I'm sure it has become a US modus operandi since all these HR pukes talk to each other.
Not true that fired workers cannot get UE ben's. Of course it depends on the reason for the firing, and it may be state-specific, but in OR it only impacts the waiting period until ben's start. Either way someone lost their job and that sucks.
Despite the headlines, initial jobless claims have been steadily improving since 2009. The miss is meaningless when you look at the long term trends (see charts).
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/26/new-home-sales-drop-2-2-initial-jobless-claims-miss-expectations/
Look for another Y2K in corporate IT this year with Obamacare.
Hospitals and clinics are have to make massive modifications in their IT infrastructure. Bigger billings for the Accentures and IBMs, more hardware from the Dells and HPQs.
Obamacare: Let the good times roll! Always, less for more.