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Jobless Claims Spike Is Fourth Largest In 2012 As Producer Prices Surge By Most Since June 2009

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While hardly a factor in the Fed's thinking which is due to present its announcement in 4 hours, today's Initial claims report came at 382K, the biggest miss to expectations (370K) in 2 months, and up from last week's naturally upward revised claims of 367K. The 15K jump is the biggest weekly spike in 2 months and 4th largest this year. Just as relevantly, as we warned months ago, those on extended claims continue to run out at a fast pace, with 41K people losing their extended benefits, down by nearly 1.8 million from a year ago, and are forced to seek disability benefits to keep the government dole running. More importantly, and just as Bernanke is doing his best to stoke inflation, producer prices soared by 1.7% in August, up from July's 0.3%, and well above expectations of 1.2%. This was the biggest M/M spike since the 1.9% surge in June of 2009, and was driven primarily by soaring food prices, which however as everyone knows, is not really a factor in the Fed's thinking. "On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods climbed 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended August 2012, the largest advance since a 2.8-percent increase for the 12 months ended March 2012." Then again, who out there needs food or energy - inflation is precisely what Bernanke wants, the FOMC will welcome this news with open arms. But at least the Fed will create jobs and get people to give up on renting which is the New Normal buying, and scramble right back into the housing re-bubble.

MoM PPI jumped the most in over three years...

 

as initial claims jumpe to its worst in over two months...

 

 


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Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Spike Is Fourth Largest

 

Damn.....almost good enough for a medal.

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

> which is due to present its announcement in 4 hours

 

I thought the Fed announcement is at 2:15pm?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Still is......it's tradition.

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Deep79
Deep79's picture

12:30

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

12:30 pm today.  They moved it up.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Rutrow......I don't think I like the sound of that!

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

correction: ruh roh

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Nah RUT roh will be correct if BB disappoints. But that's not programmed preapproved thinking and independent thought is illegal, so forget I said that. 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

But at 2:15 you get to hear the Bernank speak. It's always fun to have two windows open when listening to him, one to get his weasel words and one to watch the price of gold. The price usually either ramps or craters. Particularly memorable was the Congressional testimony when 'someone' sold paper gold equal to Brazil's national reserves during the transition from Ron Paul's to Maxine Water's questions. Could be interesting today since there's almost $200 to hard support and no clear resistance. Good times.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

No clear resistance is absolutely true. I'm going to do today what you described. It should be fun.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The Fed statement is at 12:30.

The explanation of the statement is at 2:00.

The movie opens Nov 6th in a voting booth theater near you.

<Can you make that fried rice banker to go please.>

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Good? That's greaaaaaaaaat!
Just claim targeting nominal GDP, declare victory and a partnership at Goldman

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

But Keynes said there is a "multiplier" and that government spending is great for GDP.  Saving is bad, real bad, nasty bad.  We can't have any saving.  Just keep pumping in more and more money when times are bad and all will be good.  What's that?  The government saves during good times?  Bwahahahaha.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

these people didnt lose their jobs on their own...they couldn't have done it without the govt....

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

bullish...release the qe krakon

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

I wonder if the Bureau of Lies and Scams would ever allow a 4-handle to print on initial claims this close to President BackNine's re-election day?

Or would they print 399K only to revise it to 410K the next week when it drops to 398K, while the media shouts "WE'VE TURNED A CORNER!! FUNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS DROP!!!!!!"

I'm guessing the latter is far, far more likely.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Anorexic pedestrians don't see any inflation here.  Nope.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Sphinx_www
Sphinx_www's picture

Transitory.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment gkumar
gkumar's picture

So if the Fed start tightening then the drought will go away and food prices will come down?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Print some corn, bitchez.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Oh, the irony!  Today is yet another Fed day and the Ghost of Monetizations Past surfaces throwing this feces of a UE claims report at Benron.  Yes, Benron, this report shows that you've solved nothing (because you can't) and created more problems via inflation.  Checkmate for any hopes of New QE.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The only place QE was going to happen was in the minds of the MSM.

Jaw,Jaw is the only menu item today.

War,war maybe next.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

So when does the Fed start handing out free ecstasy to the Nouveau Poor? Cue e!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR THE MARKETS TO WAKE UP TO REALITY AND TODAY IS THE DAY WHEN FINNALY EQUITY INDEXES LIKE SP5 AND DOWN WILL SINK, IN PARTICULAR, FINANCIALS AND HOUSING STOCKS. WE CONTINUE SHORTING EURO,AUD AND GBP BUT LONG GOLD AND SILVER, CHF, USD, CAD AND MXN....OF COURSE WE HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN FACEPLANT WHERE HE ARE MASSIVELY LONG

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Ask your doctor if Zoloft is right for you.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

4 out of 5 Feds recommend Ponzonium, the little green pill, with unlimited refills .... er ... prints.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

1 of 140 000 Russians recommends Polonium 210... though we still don't know which one.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

Gas by me is now $3.99 .. I'll give Ben a week to see how he did with todays policy decision.

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We're moving forward.....should have it at $4.50 in a couple days.

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Well, this should change in the near future.  I see us need a lot of construction workers and replacement embassy personnel in the near future.  Shovel ready jobs...

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The Fed needs to hit the ball back into the administration's court and stop funding their spending spree.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

But you're forgetting that the political and monetary scientists are conjoined twins, joined at the hip.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

But wait, these numbers are supposed to go to Zero at 12:30 or 2:15 today?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Can someone please explain something for me?

How in the world is the labor participation rate the same as it was four years ago, but yet the unemployment is 2% lower today?

So 8-12 million people drop off the rolls which might account for par with new entrys but where in the world does the drop account for?

Has the drop off the rolls ever kept up with new participants? And just how many have dropped off in the last four years.

This math is jacked up.

While Zandi and friends say but, but, but it's a formula when Rick S talks 7.9% in Nov.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

I do not know about how they cook the inflation numbers, but the bill for the same food basket, non existent as an item in the inflation stat, I have been buying for many years, compared with an year ago, is 20% higher.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Sorry, we're not supposed to notice things like that. Back to the re-education center for you.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

"was the biggest M/M spike since the 1.9% surge in June of 2009, and was driven primarily by soaring food prices, which however as everyone knows, is not really a factor in the Fed's thinking."

BS - food and energy inflation IS a primary concern of the Fed otherwise we'd be looking at QE8
right now.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Hey, wasn't the convention last week?  When you run th ecompany, you get the number you want...

 

FORWARD SOVIET!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Hey, wasn't the convention last week?  When you run the company, you get the number you want...

 

In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one class of citizens to give to another.

~ Voltaire

 

FORWARD SOVIET!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

Bad Initial Claims: Blame It On The Financial Storm

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/09/bad-initial-cla...

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

bullshitist, long ink and paper!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

PRINT PRINT PRINT!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

how much of the 1.7% MoM increase in PPI was pil?

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Stagflation is starting to come in. Soon we will have wage inflation and corporate margin compression and long bond starting to decline. Since inflation is coming, not need to print more, Bernanke has succeeded moving us out of hte hyperinflation versus deflationary collapse. We are starting to move toward stagflation, mortgages will get easier to repay, bond traders, stock brokers you are fucked. If Gold and Silver plunge because of no printing let it form a base because the only reason the Fed will stop printing is because stagflation is starting finally (slowly at first).

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

You're kidding yourself if you think we'll see wage inflation. Producer margins will compress to zero, or negative. Everyone I know with a real business, ie not publicly traded, is trying to sell.

They can't raise wholesale prices, and they can't lower input costs. There is no profit to be made, so there is no point in doing business.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

THE FED[s OBJECTIVE IS TO MOVE THE ENTIRE PRICE STRUCTURE UP, THE EQUITY AND BONDS HOLDERS THOUGHT THAT MEANT HIGHER PRICE FOR CAPITAL, BUT IN FACT MOVING PRICE STRUCTURE UP HURTS CAPITAL, this is the Beautiful deleveraging.

You are kidding yourself if you do not know the inflation numbers between 1937 and 1950. Does that mean consumer were better off? WHo said that standard of living increase with wage inflation? They don t, but it makes it nominally easier to repay debt...

Not at all, they just had more currency units, but it made it easier to repay debt. The ever increasing share going to corporations versus labor is like anything else and at some point it reverses. It is reversing now. Consumer will not be better off, they just will have more currency units to repay the debt which is the net net positive since they have debt. Bondholders are the suckers, and Equity holders too. Margins have peaked last year. They will shrink from now on.

THere is no offshoring of jobs to China possible. China is feeling huge pinch, they had domestic inflation and their biggest market (Europe) had a currency going down 20% and wages going down. The ever increasing exporst of China to the West is another myth, a symetrical myth to the ever increasing share of corporations. Cyclical, as always. Chinese consumers will be hurt if China wants to save its exporters and and SOEs, China would be better off sacrifice those guys and move to a more consumer oriented econom by revaluing its currency. If China devalues the Yuan, and does more stimulus that is not good long term, the best alernative is to sacrifice the SOEs and exporters and move one to another economic model but the transition is painful.

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

The problem is Night that all of the direct printing and inflating has been supposedly contained to financial markets, and bankster pumping of commodities has given us vast inflation especially in food and energy which are necessities for the consumer, without wage inflation to keep up with the cost increases every extra dime that is paid for the higher necessities has to come out of consumer discretionary spending, and once consumers have cut back as much as they can on that they normally would use credit to bridge the gap, but their credit is tapped out, they are already way too deep in debt. After that all the consumer has is default, because this is not the normal wage pull or cost push inflation, this is a strictly monetary phenomenon, workers cannot demand higher wages and get them. The fed thought they could sterilize the bailouts and printing for bankers but it was inevitable that there would be leakage into the commodities and ForEx markets leading to inflation.

It will help nobody on Main Street to pay their mortgages with as you say devalued dollars if none of those dollars make it into consumers pay envelopes. In fact unless borrowers get more in wage increases than they get in inflated prices their ability to repay any debt is impaired not improved. I read that corporations are sitting on two trillion in cash, but one quarter of that is in one company, Apple, and most of the rest is in the hands of a dozen firms. They are holding it because right now it is cheaper to finance operations with near free borrowing while "investing" for higher returns than they pay to borrow, but they know that will not last forever and when rates rise they will need the money to return to normal.

In short, this monetary inflation has nothing to do with supply and demand, that is way I have been saying for years that we are in a stagflation, job market weak at best and probably in negative territory still when you strip out the accounting frauds, aggregate wages dropping on top of deep losses in household wealth, high unemployment, there is no way the workers will be getting raises.

I am on a fixed income as a disabled vet and I can tell you that last year they announced a 3.2% COLA for 2012 and that was the first raise in three years. In that period food and fuel rose by 40 and more percent. These increases are NOT temporary. In normal times the fed sees price increases as temporary because they can quickly and easily drain liquidity from Main Street lowering demand and thus having a downward impact on prices, this time they cannot control prices and while they were shooting for higher asset prices they splashed consumer necessities with the same brush. The only real deflation in the entire economy is owned housing, rents on labor, and electronics and some other consumer discretionary. By the way, rumor has it that the federal COLA this fall announced for next year if they give one at all will be in the 1.2% range, and we will only get that because it is an election year. There is NOTHING I buy that has not gone up by at least 10% since last year and a lot of what I (used to) buy is up by 100% so this small bribe to voters I think will backfire. People will be so incensed at the paltry increase they will feel compelled to vote for the other guy no matter what a dick he is. In the end I am sure that is what killed Carter, I was in the service while he was president and I voted for Raygun whom I loathed, because we had 10-12-14% inflation that they would admit to, and got 1-2% raises, we lost more than 30% of our purchasing power under Carter and simply thought we could not take another year of him, every enlisted soldier I knew with kids was on food stamps and that was when you had to be really poor to get assistance.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

You have the sunk cost issue, as long as business cover their variable cost, even if they lose money on an accrual basis, they are better than stopping doing business where they do not cover ANY of their fixed capital. Capital will get destroyed, but we had inflated capital and a skinny consumer.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Yeah we get it, "RAH RAH BERNANKE". You peppered the board yesterday with your gratitude towards him.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Of course I like Bernanke forcing the price structure up, that is making debt burden easier for consumers, and that is going to fuck up hte bond holders and equity holders, and benefit over time farming, some specific mining (not iron ore which is a real estate bubble short call in China) and benefit over time Silver and Gold (right now those will stagnate because of limited additional QE, and rally when stagflation becomes apparent -later.)

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

There won't be a producer of anything soon. With increasing base costs and retail forcing suppliers to reduce prices, it will be impossible to make a profit producing anything.

The stock market has reached peak bullshit, just as the economy has ground to a complete halt. It's like the end of 2007 all over again.

The launch of the iFarce5 with channel stuffing of epic proportions will start the next leg down as they sit on shelves for months.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Now it is not like 2007. 2007 = 1929, today 2012 = 1937 with inflationary pressures building up. Stock market sucked until the delevaraging was complete in 1950 on corporations and consumers. Between devaluation of 1932 and 1950, commodities moved up 5 times.

 

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

It will be impossible to make a profit producing anything with the sole exception of i-anythings. There, fixed it for ya.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

do you even know what channel stuffing is or are you just regurgitating what ZH writes? Apple has 120+ Billion in cash, they're doing $140B in revenue on a run rate basis with 40%+ gross margins. They invented the tablet market and do 60+% of their revenue internationally. Quibble all you want about the intricacies of the current valuation but they're making boatloads of $ and with an increasing international presence should be able to keep it going. For how long? who knows, but they're on solid ground for atleast the next 1-2 yrs. If consumers want to lever up to buy the next iphone 5, then so be it. The credit risk lies with the CC companies not Apple. 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

A lot of companies have been relying on ever cheaper manufacturing labor from China, so looking from that angle, the manufacturing will not come back in the US but the cheap cost might not get cheaper from now on. Actually China fixed currency regime is an abberation, i would not bet that the cost gets cheaper from now on, it worked until 2007. If China was willing to move to consumer economy it might have to sacrifice exporters and SOEs and float its currency, do not know if right now it would mean a higher FX because of flows going on, but a revaluation of the Yuan would be short term very painful but good for consumer sector of hte economy in China.

 

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

AAPL is safe...as long as the student loan program is in place.

Serfdom for life, in exchange for an i-device.

Pretty good deal, eh?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment mayhem
mayhem's picture

yahoo says tropical storm affected employment numbers... i still think it is global warmings fault... ducktards.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Yep, I always seem to get fired at the end of the day.

But somehow my job is there the next day and I get hired again when I show up.

AMAZING.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

BLS claims 9,000 of the job cuts was Issac related.  Ahem, just how stupid do they think we are?  Or did they do away with the two week waiting period since the last time I filed a claim?  We are to believe that there was a 9k bump in claims because of a rain storm? 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment 10mm
10mm's picture

Things are starting to feel so "70's".

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Somebody did a photoshop of Obama as Carter yesterday. Perfect and hysterically funny. All we need is some American hostages in the Middle East and we're there!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Now if we could just get Volker to return to the Fed. 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I don't know why you guys are so bearish. 

Didn't you hear that "the jobs are coming"?

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Obama and his stoogey mouthpieces said the country is moving in the right direction! If that isn't bullish [bullshit] I don't know what is.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

On the PPI, Crude was up like 10% on the month. So that was all the fed? Had nothing to do with the hurricane speculation and Iran, right?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

This will spur Fed to do something. But with low money mulitplier and velcoity, the impact is handcuffed.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/13/prior-to-fed-announcement-jobless-claims-rise-poor-money-multiplier-and-velocity-hampers-feds-efforts/

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

At some point it will occur to him that all of the money he is flooding the US economy with is being held or saved or spent in the global markets - read invested in foreign economies. What happens if you load up a tennis ball throwing machine and there is no one there to hit the balls back? That is the state of velocity, or the game, today in the US.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Bring on the QE! Come on Helicopter Ben, play your last hand of "Texas Holdem"!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Take away Benny Bernanke's PhD. His thesis was all fluff and garbage. It's about time he's forced to wear a dunce and sit in the corner of the Austrian school of economics.

 

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/4359/thumbs/s-BIRTHDAY-BERNANKE-large.jpg

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I have to be consistent and note that, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims for last week dipped to 297,000.

Nowever, before you can say "bullish", I have to tell you: That's the first time initial UC claims came in below 300k since the week of October 6, 2007. Nearly five years ago.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

NSA claims down about 31K year over year.  Despite the frenzy over seasonal adjustments, it's nearly the same every week, down 30K-40K year over year.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

Nonsense....CNBC said the recovery started a couple years ago

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

"The Fed will watch the situation and respond if necessary." ~ Uncle Fedster

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment dtwn
dtwn's picture

The MIT billion prices inflation index has been increasing since 2009, not parabolic yet, perhaps in 2013?

Daily Online Price Index Computation: The daily online index is an average of individual price changes across multiple categories and retailers. The index uses a basket of goods that changes over time as products appear and disappear from a retailer’s webpage. It is updated on a daily basis and leveraged to estimate annual and monthly inflation. This index is not designed to forecast official inflation announcements, but to provide real-time information on major inflation trends.

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!