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Jobless Claims Unchanged At 351K, Fall Vs Upward Revised Number
A rather uneventful initial claims report which came in line with the election year expectations, beating consensus of +355K modestly, at 351K, which is where it was last week, except for the traditional 100% of the time, upward revision to last week's data, which was pushed higher from 351K to 353K, and in turn which will force algos to read the news as a decline in claims. Today's number gets some additional scrutiny as it comes in the NFP survey week. Continuing claims same deal: the number came a little better than expectations of 3418K at 3402K, was a deterioration compared to the unrevised last week number of 3392K but an improvement to the revised # which was 3404K. On the other hand, people at the trailing end of the cliff declined, as those on EUCs and Extended benefits dropped by 16K in the week ended February 11. As a result, people collecting extended benefits are now 1.13 million less than a year ago, and no longer collect direct BLS benefits. As for disability that's a different matter. Finally, none of this impacts America's young workers, who as noted yesterday, have an employment rate of 54%.
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So, in other words, Pravda West is on its game today....
I see green shoots.
Or was that jello shots?
Young workers have an employment rate of only 54%, Jesus.
... as anybody with a 25 year old still living at home can attest to ...
And the government encourages said behavior---mandating that you can stay on your parents insurance policy until 26 yrs. old, generous entitlements, etc.
This needs a Zerohedge post. No fucking surprise here, from the bunch that missed Madoff:
Doubtful Signs of a Criminal Case Against MF Global
Federal authorities are struggling to find evidence to support a criminal case stemming from the collapse of MF Global, even after a federal grand jury in Chicago has issued subpoenas.
Investigators, unable to find a smoking gun amid thousands of e-mails and documents, increasingly suspect that chaos and poor risk control systems prompted the disappearance of more than $1 billion in customer money, according to several people involved in the case.
When the money first went missing, prosecutors in New York and Chicago scrambled to stake a claim. Now, four months later, both Preet S. Bharara, the United States attorney in Manhattan, and Patrick J. Fitzgerald, his counterpart in Chicago, are shying away from leading the case, one of those people involved in the case said.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/doubtful-signs-of-a-criminal-case...
Of course there was no wrong doing. Someone just hit a wrong button by mistake and no one noticed a billion dollars vaporized.
Great then ... if the answer is that sloppiness and poor risk control led to the illegal action of commingling funds, then CLEARLY the guy at the top (who is ultimately responsible for airtight anti-commingling procedures) is at fault.
The quintessential popcorn moment for me: Corzine in an orange jumpsuit. I know the chances are near zero, but let a guy have his moment ...
I worked at a small business for awhile and at the end of the day if as little as $5 was not accounted for, everyone who could have taken it was interrogated tougher then Corzine was. Seems at the Corzine/Mozilla/Wall Street altitude, everyone walks away....free and clear ... may even get a Bonus.
OT, but Buh-Bye:
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble Quoted today Agence France-Presse :
"If a country were to decide to leave them, it's something we would regret but which it would be necessary to accept in accordance with these principles,
TD we need to start posting the Disability numbers as that is the NEW unemployment number...might as well add the foodstamp number too
watching CNBS, Rick Santelli started ripping into Helicopter Ben and Bimbo Becky cut him off to talk about Walmart.
No Warren Buffet?
As we all know, they can't handle the truth. But we'll never SEE the truth.
I missed that Becky cut off. I didn't have the shit-show on at the time.
Don't believe any #'s while TOTUS is at the pulpit.
Finally, none of this impacts America's young workers, who as noted yesterday, have an employment rate of 54%.
Fortunately a large number of young workers would rather not work as sitting in mom an dad's basement playing Xbox gives them that sense of accomplishment otherwise missing from being a productive employee and earning income.
Not down on the 20-30 something's but most seem content not working their way up.
Work their way up from fries to assistant manager?? I'm 42 and have worked my way up twice and been dumped over the economic bs, I'd tell devise ways to get by and make $ outside the system and fuck the rest of the world raw. If the nation goes to hell it's our leaders fault for global gobble and thinking they could get us all to work for nothing.
I'm 33 and had the same economic bs pulled on me too. I couldn't agree more but I'll take it one step further. Learn to adapt to a simplistic lifestyle. My wife and I use one car, we eat out a lot less and cut out needless expenses. Our condo is big enough. It is a great feeling working when I want watching my daughter grow up and staying in phenomenal shape. And, because I am mr mom, keeping 1 car and the condo clean is simple. Now, it's time for me to put my new-found cooking skills to the test! And remember....you might not work for the man, but dont support the man either.
A few comments: 1. We are at a major trendline and this market is fighting hard to get above it and stay there. Whatever the news today it's bullish so far which is in line with yesterdays -50pt move. This market just won't give up ground.
2. I use out of work lists at the union halls to guage how things are doing locally. I can't speak for the rest of the nation but right here about 1/3 of the guys laid off have been put back to work in the past month.
It appears to me they are trying normalize all the unemployment we have and any uptick is huge great news. I personall think this latest surge locally will be short lived but won't really know for a few months.
Haha, more bullshit. Now they are correct previous bullshit with updated bullshit.
Anyone see that huge dump of treasuries by China? (http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt). Over one hundred billion dollars dumped in one month. The Chinese government is going hyper on a plunging economy. They are blocking imports everywhere, increasing export subsidies, and selling assets. It is rumored that billions are leaking out of the country by Chinese seeking to diversify abroad.
money has always been leaking out of China. I had worked for an export company exclusively selling to the Chinese gov, we always had to make up two invoices for each project, one, the real price, the other invoice, considerably larger for those purchasers and probably our glorious company leader to pad/stuff their own accounts. Later, the company was raided by the FBI for selling nuclear sensitive hardware...I'm sure this kind of practice is common all over the PRC. I don't believe China will be the world's leader of anything in the years to come.
Do the HFT 'Bots ever see articles about the revisions of the Ministry of Lies data?
If the market bursts upward on the BS Numbers, should there not also be a negative reaction when the "corrections" are announced?
How will the reduction to the 99 weeks & the 99'ers affect continuing claims, when does this reduction take effect and how many will this initially affect over what timeline?
With so many structurally unemployed, it would seem the reduction will bring about a large decrease in continuing claims next Thursday if indeed March 1st is the implementation date.
DOW 20,000!!!
Housing is now my key to rampant inflation and structural tumult. As employment improves without housing, when housing does improve, the rush to those more lucrative positions available in housing, from sales to trades to labor, the positions vacated will lack anyone to fill them and a vicious wage-price spiral will ensue. How the Fed, or anyone else, thinks they will be able to curtail the pent up demand is beyond me but I'm in for the ride.
from Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters, noting Paul Krugman's acknowledgment of how bad unemployment is (granted he wants it to be really bad to justify further Keynesian trillions, but still):
And this paragraph from, of all places, a Playboy interview with Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman.
"It really is catastrophic. If you include people who aren't actively searching for a job and people who are working part-time even though they want full-time work, we're up to about one in seven. That means the unemployment rate is 16 percent. I live in a fairly rarefied social class now and so I probably hear a lot fewer personal horror stories. But I do hear them: people my age, 58 year old guys who've lost jobs and see no chance of ever getting another one; young people out of college with good qualifications who can't find anything, who can't get their lives started. The human damage is enormous."
Playboy link here: http://www.playboy.com/magazine/playboy-interview-paul-krugman
i suspece the nfp number next week will be a huge beat.
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/