John Taylor Says "To Hell With Germany"

Tyler Durden's picture

When the founder of the world's largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts says that Greece will be out of money by June and out of the Euro soon after, people should listen. While we disagree with the premise that Greece's exit will not be chaotic, his general thoughts on the situation in Europe, espoused in this Bloomberg TV interview, are summed up by his reply when asked if Europe is a sell "I do. I also feel passionately that the euro is effectively a break up." Taylor also points out that the stability of a post-Greece Euro landscape is really up to the ECB noting that "I think the ECB should let the Euro go down. To hell with Germany." Covering whether the Euro will crater, the contagion effects, and how the rest of Europe will behave, the non-Duran-Duran Taylor who readily admits his mistakes on misjudging the Fed's excess, sees the timeline for exit as soon after the next round of elections in Greece this summer.

 

 

Taylor on whether Greece will leave the euro after the next round of elections:

"There is another round to go yet as I believe they will have another election in June. Then it will come out the same way or perhaps even worse…This summer I think is very likely. The Europeans will not give them the money. The IMF will not give them an ok. They will be out of money in June."

 

On whether Germany, France, Spain or Italy will mobilize in an effort to keep Greece in the euro:

"I think that people are feeling the implications of a Greek exit are not so bad. I think Angela Merkel is in a position where she cannot go too far to push the Greeks to stay in or give too much money to them."

 

On whether there will be chaos if Greece leaves the euro:

"I do not think so. I don't think it will be absolute chaos.  I think what will happen instead of them trying to rescue the Greeks, they will turn around and huddle together and say how do we help Portugal and Spain?"

 

On whether Greece leaving the euro would trigger more nations across Europe to leave:

"There will be a bit of that, but if you talk to not only the political elite, but the political class in all of these countries, they are all in favor of staying with the euro, so I do not they think they will do that until Greece is one year out. No one is talking about Iceland yet. Iceland threw the whole thing in the face of Europe and said to hell with it, we're not going to pay the savior's back, we're going to let our banks go bankrupt, and they've done wonderfully…that is a model for [Greece]. But I must say that Iceland has a lot more assets than Greece does."

 

On whether now is the time that the euro will crater:

"I have been wrong. There is no doubt about it. A lot of the reason I have been wrong is because of the U.S. The U.S. is determined to help the euro, not to just depreciate its currency, but to give them all the swap lines and the push money out to keep Europe strong. The net effect of the whole thing is that the dollar and the euro have basically been locked together."

 

On what happens to the euro if Greece leaves:

"I believe it is really up to the ECB. I think the ECB should let the euro go down. To hell with Germany. Germany has a great economy and it's doing wonderfully. So they have a little inflationary problem if the euro goes to $1.10. It will not kill them, but it certainly helps Spain, Italy, and all the other people fight off the Asian import menace that they have."

 

On what the central banks should do:

"I am not arguing they will stop printing money keeping interest rates at zero. The ECB could get rates lower. Maybe in the next month they will do exactly that. I wrote yesterday

that if they had some pluck, some chutzpah, to go out there and say I am going to cut rates and do something different, that would be a very smart thing for them to do. Even if QE3 comes, I do not think it makes any difference. We are basically on this track. We are kind of on a Japanese track.  We will have very low rates for a very long time."

 

On why Greece will be better off outside the euro:

"If they drop the drachma, people will actually go to Greece on vacation.  The hotels are not wonderful, but they are nice enough especially if they are marked down 50%."

On whether he still believes that Europe is a sell:

"I do. I also feel passionately that the euro is effectively a break up."

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
disabledvet's picture

The question now is "can France form a Government." I'll be watching.

Global Hunter's picture

"the non Duran Duran Taylor"...very funny, I was really getting into records in the early 80s

JamesBond's picture

don't pushers need their addicts?

He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Right, Merkelonium is a dangerous drug,

specifically if misunderstood.

Roast in hell, mr. taylor.

 

The Euro "down"?

The German export machine loves just that, mr taylor,

where do you live? Can't be the moon, must be

a planet called Senile.

 

 

FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Not as dangerous as Hopium. That schit will kill ya....

gangland's picture

'Far from promoting greater integration, as its architects predicted,

the European Monetary Union (EMU) serves to intensify conflict among and within member states by accelerating uneven development,

dramatizing inequalities,

and provoking demands for the renationalization of monetary policy.'

 

Contrary to this turn of events, available to all to observe through mass media,

 [the EU] continues to sing the praises of the success of the European Union and the project of its common currency.

Very much in line with this,

Anton Hemerijck (2002) speaks of the EMU as part of a successful ‘self-transformation’ of the ‘European social model’

and Martin Rhodes (2002) argues that the EMU actually is strengthening European welfare states.

 

When one abandons the parsimonious,

but overly simplistic ‘basic force’, functionalist,

and formal-institutionalist models of power upon which this conventional wisdom is based,

and rather adopts a more structural and dialectical conception of power, a very different conclusion emerges.

 

The EMU is firmly subordinated to the minimalist hegemony

that has characterised the ‘strategic coordination’ of US policy

since the end of the Bretton Woods era.

 

Consequently,

the aspirations of the European ‘power bloc’ of dominant socio-economic interests

and socio-political elites to build a monetary union to promote competitiveness,

regional autonomy, and sustained growth is self-limiting,

given the neo-liberal underpinnings of the system as it has developed since the Maastricht Treaty [including Lisbon, the upcoming EMS and TSCG].


This is because the neo-liberal project is inherently connected to a

transnational financial and monetary order

which displaces economic and social contradictions from the United

States to other parts of the world, including Europe.

 

-  October 2005 by Alan Cafruny and Magnus Ryner

http://www.risq.org/article475.html

 

 

LFMayor's picture

Didn't the Dutch, Belgians, Polish, French, Norwegians, Czechs, Greeks say The Hell with Germany too?  About 1939 or so?

How did that shit work out?

Greece my be better off outside the Euro, but the fact is they OWE.  Nothing good will come of this, no matter what anyone decides. 

msamour's picture

In the current format they owe, but once they leave, and return to the Drachma, then they will say screw you. Here is an example; when i took out my student loan it was written clearly in the paperwork that the money to be repaid was in Canadian dollars. If the Canadian dollar suddenly collapses, and is replaced by another currency, i am no longer bound under contract law to pay in the new currency. I'll go to the nearest dumpster, collect the money that people threw away, and send it to the bank as my payment. If they do not take the payment, then they can take me to court, and they will lose. A contract is still a contract.

The same thing goes for Greece. Was there an invasion of Iceland after they told the Europeans to screw themselves? no. As a bonus, they even arrested bankers, which flies in the face of every political apparatuses around the world.

LFMayor's picture

well, you can also tell Fannie Mae, GMAC, your bookie and your bail bondsman "Screw You" but YMMV. 

If Greece's debt is bad enough, there will be some pist krauts looking for payback.  Alaric and the Goths got their band rocking because of debts owed, too.

Paul Atreides's picture

They don't owe shit if they default, claim bankruptcy and return to the drachma, which is what they should do because it's mostly fraudulent debt anyways.

sockratte's picture

well, germany and the rest of the eu guaranteed for greek debt, didn't they?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"I do. I also feel passionately that the euro dollar is effectively a break up car wreck."

Fixed it.

 

 

disabledvet's picture

There seems to be much diss-onance in your cognition of late.

carbonmutant's picture

No Merkelbucks for you...

PeterSchump's picture

Nice low vol ramp in /es since about 1.  As long as the PPT/PTB have ammo, armageddon will be delayed.

EscapeKey's picture

Eurozone destruction now fully priced in.

Back to your scheduled CNBS programme - Equities are cheap! Load up now (before they're out of your price range forever).

Absolutely bloody ridiculous. A bunch of HFT computers trained to spot a daily end-of-day ramp. And - no doubt - when they all get it wrong, the authorities will pull the plug, as the "market isn't working".

williambanzai7's picture

Can you imagine what those MSM retards must be thinking now.

Stoploss's picture

FBN touting levered ETF's.

Gas pipeline company "cyber attack" sends nattie up 6%.

Now this.

This has been one mofo of a bad moon cycle to say the least.

Everybodys All American's picture

Somebody spent an s load of money bringing the market back today.

mammoth mo's picture

Correction - someone spent a s load of our money bringing the market back today.

 

You will all get the bill later.

BorisTheBlade's picture

All priced in in your food and gasoline prices going forward.

FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

HAIL PPT!!

Hail the MESSIAH!! (or the IRS will visit)

 

Nothing matters but propping the markets until election day, to prevent bad press for Obama. NOTHING... No matter how many tax dollars they have to spend.

Everybodys All American's picture

They love that Russell 2000 index. I'm convinced this is PPT money because no one buys small caps like this especially when commodities like gold and silver are selling off.

midgetrannyporn's picture

with that volume it took about three fiddy.

thismonkeydoesnotdance's picture

can't wait to see the next magic trick.

riphowardkatz's picture

Amazing headline from CNN. 

"Anger at austerity, immigration feeds far right's rise in Europe"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/08/world/europe/europe-far-right-austerity/index.html  

NotApplicable's picture

Stupid words, always morphing into different ideas. Today's scorecard reads:

Right = Nationalist = Isolationist

Left = Globalist = Expansionist

YMMV

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Right/Left makes no difference, the intention is to smear/discredit.

Consider it mission accomplished.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Here is where you can visibly see the insiders as oppose to the outsiders. Taylor is book talkin' the CoL song.

That cunt's intro about Taylor 'scooping assets' from Argentina's default made me throw up in my mouth a little.

1835jackson's picture

Central Bankers want it ALL. Create the crisis and then come in with their "solution" I foresee a major fucking crisis of epic proportions then the solution then eventual monopoly. Where the fuck is that whining Irishman when you need him? 

Let them eat iPads's picture

Drachma printing presses to warp speed!

ArrestBobRubin's picture

Zat's it! Take Herr Taylor off der Kwistmas cahd lisht.

NotApplicable's picture

"I think the ECB should let the euro go down."

So... just what is a central bank without a currency? Am I missing something here?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Replace 'should' with 'want' or even more appropriately 'demand' and it'll be clear as day.

riphowardkatz's picture

Wrong. Greece cannot exit without the potential for an uncontrolable deflationary spiral AND/OR hyper inflation. Even if it is possible it equates to the cold war with everyones fingers on the red button but to concerned with the consequences to ever push it.

OttoMBMP's picture

I would like to answer: To hell with Taylor and all other allied fuckers who have driven Germany into this NWO shit just because they are incapable and jealous.

ArrestBobRubin's picture

Jah Jah zair mein freund. Vell said!

Savyindallas's picture

I'll bet the Germans wish they had nukes  -without them, they are essentially defenseless and at their mercy.

Bartanist's picture

The whole globalist plan falls apart if Greece and other countries like them can make it on their own. So, the banks will do everything they can to make sure Greece fails.

How many countries can be really self-suffient? The globalists say that the price for not being self-suffient is to cede all wealth, power, freedom and free will to them for managing the movement of goods and services around the world.... we already see that in the area of commodities. Virtually all commodities are traded though the globalist bankers' price and market systems, they own the inventory and they have given themselves the right to destroy the free market and dictate price.

Dare I say, they also create the financial incentive for the creation of all wars. They are a pretty sucky group.

Vince Clortho's picture

"The whole globalist plan falls apart if Greece and other countries like them can make it on their own. So, the banks will do everything they can to make sure Greece fails."

Be careful.  Some Muppet might see what you wrote and start thinking.


Non Passaran's picture

In fact it's the opposite: should Greece fail, leave the eurozone and recover, that will show the way for the rest, as they said in the interview

AntiLeMaire's picture

The ECB letting the EURO down! LOL. What a gigantic fool that man is!

>> "I think the ECB should let the Euro go down. To hell with Germany."

Hey moron, the ECB is the EUROpean Central Bank.

It ISSUES the EURO!

It can't let the Euro down, it basically IS the Euro.

Non Passaran's picture

I noticed that in the interview bit I think he meant the ECB shouldn't keep rescuing PIIGS. That would make those countries drop out and cause collapse of the eurozone.

adr's picture

Way to go PPT, you saved the market once again to continute the farce for another day. Someone stick saved Apple by $10 and Pricline by $25.

Really???

What a joke.

Vince Clortho's picture

A pathetic joke at this point.  But it's what they do.

They will continue to do so until their funds dry up.

Rynak's picture

They have no funds.... they only have hosts. They pay with other peoples wealth. Where people naively complain about conventional taxes... because, they actually get NOTIFIED about what they're taxed.... those connected to CBs can tax the entire planet, without anyone commoner grasping what's going on, let alone getting notified.

Then again.... they do get notified..... kinda.... they get notified, that everyone except of the top now being poorer, is good for everyone except of the top.... in fact, they get warned that doom-doom-doom will happen, if they were to NOT get poorer.... or get poorer at slower speed.

bubbleburster's picture

So, here is my question.  If the Euro currency falls apart, won't Germany fare worse off than now?  What I have in mind is this.  Imagine that the European country's re-float their old currencies and the Deutchmark goes back on the market.  Won't it become one of if not the most valuable currency in Europe? That will make it soar in value against just about every other currency except maybe the Swiss Franc?  So, if this is true, won't this just crush German manufacturers whose products will suddenly become much more expensive to buyers world wide?  Is this really not the big fear of the Germans, to have a sky high currency.  What recourse would a post-Euro zone German currency have but to see it devalued a few times to keep it competitive?  Will this not then clobber the German people?  I don't see how Germany will end up better off by the end of the Euro....can anyone paint a positive picture?

AntiLeMaire's picture

Been there, done that & it worked fine :).

>> Won't it become one of if not the most valuable currency in Europe? That will make it soar in value against just about every other currency except maybe the Swiss Franc?

Yes, them & the other NEURO countries ...

>> So, if this is true, won't this just crush German manufacturers whose products will suddenly become much more expensive to buyers world wide?

Yes, but those addicts will still buy them. At better prices :)).

>> Is this really not the big fear of the Germans, to have a sky high currency. 

Oh no, the Germans, the Dutch, the Swiss, the Norwegians, the Swedes, the Fins, the Danes, the Austrians, the Luxemburgers, we all love that.

Even with a 25% increase, we're still cheaper than the French & we are way, way, much better. Get it now?

 

As it was, so it may be once again.

NEURO here we come!

 

Rynak's picture

The only thing that annoys me more than living with the euro, is me being told over and over how much i benefited from the euro.... where benefit is to mean 75% purchasing power reduction in 10 years.

Teh price stabilitiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!! GFY EMU.

And just in case anyone now brings up the borring "but who will buy the BMWs?"-argument.... may i refer you to one of those "the world according to america"-jokes? If BMW were to go broke right today, it wouldn't make the slightest dent in any half relevant, half illusionary, statistic (and in case of GDP, it also wouldn't make the slightest dent to a totally illusionary number).

But hey, go on believing that slaving away for joke-wages... sorry, i meant to say EXPORTS, is better than being a dependent debt junkie.... sorry, i meant to say IMPORTS. And you know what? The most LMAO of it all is, that the zombies who subscribe to this, cannot decide about what supposedly is true... they constantly schizophrenetically jump back and forth between "the sell outs have it better" and "the selfunsustainable junkies are freeloaders who have it so much better and therefore owe".

And while the muppets fight among their own split-personalities, the bankers cash in.