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Join Jeff Gundlach Live As He Debates Whether "To QE3 Or Not To QE3"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Correction: the Gundlach call is tomorrow. We got a little ahead of ourselves. We will bring this post back tomorrow after the close.

DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach (whose AUM is now well into the $30 billion area - a scorching ascent for the former TCW manager) will host a live call at 4:15 PM Eastern today, on the ever so salient topic (if somewhat regurgitated soundbite) of whether "To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the question." As is traditional, Gundlach will accept questions from the audience. And as always, lots of very interesting tangential info to be gleaned from one of the truly objective and original thinkers out there.

Full presentation at the link below.

 


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Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:07 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

They will do QE3, bet money on it. 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Just keep doing it and not telling us about it. By telling us it justifies that they want us to know that they have thoroughly fucked it up, all for a lunch at the four seasons.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm willing to put a million dollar note on that!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I’m sorry to break it to you, but that is known as speculation. Speculation is an opportunistic, greedy and immoral practise that is destroying confidence in our economy. Nancy Pelosi correctly identified speculators as the key driver for gas prices in America. Because greedy profiteers are making money in commodity futures, poor people are paying more to fill up their tanks and put food on the table. Professional investors distinguish themselves from speculators by investing according to fundamentals for economic growth only. Real investors don't just "bet money on QE". Instead they buy and hold mean-variance optimized equity portfolios for optimal diversification and steady consistent returns.  

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

@MillonDollar: let me rephrase that as a presidential campaign speech:

Real men don't speculate. When Congress asks me to sign a speculation bill I'll tell 'em : Are you feeling lucky today punk? 

Real men wear metrosexually-inspired cologne available at most retail outlets which boost their yuppie credentials in pubic...errr...public places. 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

The only reason Pelosi doesn't speculate herself (oh, sounds kinky) is that inside traders need not speculate ...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Speculator to Nancy: 'You know you love it' 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

All this QE talk is making me QuEsy.

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I preferred your old avatar MDB. You look like you're trying to hide now.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Can't imagine what from... MDB's a SUPA-stahhhhh

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 04:15 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

This ia a new MDB bot  with an underscore at the end.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Shit, MDB has undergone asexual reproduction. What is the doubling rate?

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

This leech Gundlach and the rest of the lot just want to sell their mortgage bonds to the Fed at a profit.  And some people still say we have free markets.  

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Hallpass2012
Hallpass2012's picture

Sell off first QE3 announcement comes and rally continues... possible margin hikes on oil, silver, gold to snap the response in these commodities & possibly flood markets with more oil... the markets will eventually be doomed due to these clowns expanding credit like it is going out of style

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:09 | Link to Comment trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

they better not! I'll go postal on wallstreet.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Since QE3 will not have the same impact on the market as QE1&2, you need to drop the market to a level where it will have an impact in time for the elections...

Then the current administration can take credit for saving the economy.... again...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

I was kind of thinking the same..  Short it to 10K then go along for the rocket ride to cover the election. All with fresh fuel from a ceiling hike in early Sept..   wwwwwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So whats gonne happen is we'll have a huge market crash and then 'QE3' and then by October get back to maybe where we are now by some miracle and all the peasantry will be so grateful they were 'saved' again, but neverminding their new $4 trillion or so in debt and their $6 gas, and they cant hardly eat anymore? 

I'm not so sure about that.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Add QE1, QE2, QE2.5 together, and multiply by 3x or 4x in order to arrive at the minimum amount QE3 will have to be in order to provide support for asset prices, whether equities or bonds (or many other assets currently at artificial, insane - literally - price levels).

Anything less will dissapoint the junkies who've developed a rapidly escalating tolerance level.

They're chasing the dragon, now. Tolerance & habituation are a junky's worst nightmare, bitchez!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

The thing that really bothers me is that the guys (the bond leech class:  Gross, Gundlach, Beinstein, Fuss, Michele) that keep bringing up the possible necessity of QE3 are the guys who will DIRECTLY benefit from the Fed announcing it.  By continually mentioning it, they are trying to create a reality where the Fed also sees it as necessary and then they get to unload all those mortgage bonds they bought to front-run the Fed on.  

Last I saw, the mortgage bond to treasury spread is only 88 bps.  Definitely a market in distress that the Fed needs to rescue!

They even have the audacity to continue bringing it up with the S&P still up 10% on the year.  Where does the greed end and common decency begin?

Will it work for the peasants?  Ben Bernanke and the Fed really really need to hand out $10K to each and every citizen of America.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Hmm lets see, 10^4 * 3 * 10^8 = 3 * 10^12, only 3 trillion, yes sir, right away sir.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment digitlman
digitlman's picture

Not gonna happen.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

If only Jeff put a few billion of his $30 billion into physical silver this fiat paper nightmare would be over.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It makes me laugh to see people write this and not realize what that would do...

~~~

Billions into an illiquid market would instantly raise the price to the point that there would be no more net buyers... It would not create a panic of buying, it would create a market of sellers...

It'd be like attending an auction and you were the only bidder & to keep the auction going, you started bidding against yourself... If you want to accumulate physical, you have to have patience... Otherwise, for the price to rise, you have to wait until THE MASSES all want to buy at the same time (not just one whale)...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'QE3' for what? Equities are near their all time highs, bonds just fine, wheres the crisis? 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

IRAN/FUCKING ISRAEL = CRISIS.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

Market will decline from now through June, Twist will turn into QE+, and markets will have subdued rally through November, while FED shorts oil, silver and gold through surrogates … all to elect Barry

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And after Barry is elected, then what? Work towards fooling everyone and suspend reality again for 2016?

I dont see whats so special about Barry that makes them want him around for.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Then what?  From my perspective, the opportunity to be sitting on top of a bitching commodities portfolio.  We take delivery of a fair amount of input commodities and sell our fair share too.  As other posters suggest, the CBs (and their proxy) will be very predicatable should this come to pass.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

You're right ... great opportunities to buy gold and silver in the next seven months as political ups and downs gyrate Au while the rest of the world quietly buys it up

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Sheepie: It's the teeth. The pearlies. 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Behind those purple Kenyan lips?

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Exactly. It's the high-contrast look

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

You are right there is nothing special about Barry ... but as long as he is POTUS there will be little light shinning on FED

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well no president ever will shine a light on the FED, not after Kennedy. If we're waiting for a president to set things right, we'll all be dust long before that ever happens. 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

When a4v goes mainstream, nobody will be worrying about a POTUS to fix things...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

QE3 IS GETTING MOMENTUM AND FED READY TO ACT 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Thamesford
Thamesford's picture

Another reinterpreted Hamlet speech, posted before but worth the reprint!

 

Alas, poor Forfeit! I blew it, Horatio: a belly
of infinite chest, of most exuberant fallacy: QE hath
printed me on his back a thousand times; and now, how
abhorred in my inflation it is! my gorge rims at
it. Here hung those TIPS (& MBS's) that I have dissed I know
not how oft. Where be your bribes now? your
gambols? your (big swinging) Schlongs? your flashes of correction,
that were wont to set the market on a roar? Not one
now, to mock your own underpinning? quite Freddie-Mac-fallen?
Now get you to my shady chamber, and teller, let
her legislate an inch thick, to this endeavour she must
come undone; make her laugh at that.

 

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

more, i want more of what ya got, hamleteer :)

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Won_Over
Won_Over's picture

It's tomorrow at 4:15....

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Bill Gross thinks MBS ripe for the Fed plucking. A kind of stealth QE3? 

THis time around the Fed Heads get creative:

Build a portfolio of used Powerball Lottery Tickets that they'll buy at 50 cent premium on the dollar. Double if it's a quick pick that contains the number 9.

Expand Fed balance sheet with baseball trading cards: 75 cent premium and up, especially for any all-stars and lefties batting over .260

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Candy bar wrappers for collateral, literally about all they have left at this point.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ben : 'the public WILL make money on this' as baseball card prices soar

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Hallpass2012
Hallpass2012's picture

MillionDollarBonus you are ingorant tool who I hope everyone takes advantage of in the markets

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

do all the original thinking you want, it doesn't change anything

imo, anybody playing the "AUM" game at this point is just a fraud holding your money for somebody else to use, and probably take

AUM = giving someone yer money with the faint hope of at least getting most of it back

mostly b/c "everyone is doing it"

hi!  i'm a 2012 fi-douche-i-airyairyairy

trust me, and don't forget to listen to me on QE3; you don't want to miss out on "making lotsa 'money', now" 

EAT ME!!!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All retail time to pile in stocks! Because surely we have QE3 coming! You cant lose! You'll make lots'o'dough, because youre so smart and theres tons of greater fools out there you'll sell to far higher!

Yea, right. I dont believe any of this crap one bit, I think theyre desperate and out of bullets and painted into a corner.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Soda Popinski
Soda Popinski's picture

Ben's doing QE alright.  He's just hoping PMs don't find out.  B b b Benny and the ink jets.  Coming to a radio station near you.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

When did QE ever end!? This is more about doubling or tripling down on MORE QE...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment CashCowEquity
Mon, 04/16/2012 - 23:14 | Link to Comment boeing747
boeing747's picture

No QE3 if Oil is over $100. Need to drop below $70 to lauch new QE. Ben is quite happy now with QE substitute: Twist and Stir (Euro Debt fear).

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 04:03 | Link to Comment cnhedge
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