JP Morgan Cuts Q3 GDP To 1.5% From 2.5%, Sees Unemployment Rate At 8.9% By End Of 2012

Tyler Durden's picture

Yesterday, JPM's Michael Feroli who is now undisputedly the least worst Wall Street economist (RIP Hatzius) cut his 2012 GDP forecast to under 1% net of fiscal adjustments. As of minutes ago, he just slashed his Q3 GDP from 2.5% to 1.5%. And the worst news for Obama: he will be dealing with 8.9% unemployment during his re-election campaign, which can now Rest in Peace. Speaking of RIPs, here's to you growth Hockeystick. You will be fondly forgotten.

From Feroli:

For some time now we have been highlighting downside risks to our already below-consensus growth forecasts. Given some recent developments, we feel compelled to lower our projection for GDP over the next four quarters.


For the current quarter the GDP arithmetic isn't setting up well, particularly regarding the outlook for an strong quarter on consumption, which now looks like it will have a tough time advancing at more than a 2% annual rate this quarter. In addition, early survey measures suggest activity may have stalled amid the debt ceiling rancor. Because of this we are lowering our Q3 GDP forecast from 2.5% to 1.5%. We do foresee some acceleration in Q4 to 2.5% (previously 3.0%). However, due to the anticipated drag from higher taxes and lower federal outlays early next year, we are reducing first half 2012 GDP growth by 1/2%-point to 2%. We had previously partly discounted some fiscal drag in our forecast for early next year, though left in some chance that we could see an extension of fiscal support. Those chances seem to be diminishing and it now looks more likely that growth could hit a pothole early next year. The revised forecast implies very little improvement in the unemployment rate, and doesn't see a fall below 9% in the coming year. We will have further details on the reasoning behind our forecast change in a note in this week's GDW.


Our previous Fed call had looked for the first increase in overnight policy rates at the beginning of 2013. Given that our forecast now has little improvement in the output gap until the second half of next year, we are pushing back that call until mid-2013. In the meantime we believe the Fed will undertake further measures to deliver monetary stimulus to the economy, even though those measures might not be particularly powerful. We will send out a note later this week regarding our expectations for next week's meeting: we don't see more asset purchases forthcoming but we do think the Committee will take incremental steps to signal increasingly accommodative policy.


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slaughterer's picture

Thank you very much for this report.  This important phrase needs to be bold-faced: "...we don't see more asset purchases forthcoming..." but, in the style of a cliff-hanger, increasingly accomodative policy. Please publish the later JPM report on monetary policy for us to see the end to this mystery. 

MichaelG's picture

Federal Funds Rate to (0.25%)? (Makes a strange kind of sense that they'd pay you to borrow their soon-to-be worthless paper, I suppose.)

Earl of Chiswick's picture

If it turns out that JPM's forecast is correct the talking points have already been programmed into the teleprompter. In fact it's already started.


The tea party economic terrorism of 2011 stalled what was otherwise a slow but steady economic and employment  recovery.



Welcome to the Tea Party's Austerity Recession

SilverRhino's picture

DAMN ... someone let me back out through the looking glass.

WonderDawg's picture

I don't think the American population, at this stage of the game, would buy that BS. It's happening slowly, but people are starting to wake up. Hopey the Clown will be a one term guy and probably will be remembered for being the guy who had a chance to turn the ship around but blew it up instead.

Nom de Guerre's picture

"Mr. Clown, the deficit agreement is going to saddle our children with more debt than can ever be repaid.  Can you help us?"

"So what you're sayin' to Hopey is that he should think about the will of the people instead of his corporate masters, even tho' you already knew that he sold out to tha' man before he was even elected.  Is dat it?"

"Yeah, Hopey."

"I don't think so." {THUMP}  "Hopey don't play that."

francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

The entire premise of the article you posted the link for is that Washington was cutting spending.  Please tell me when this will happen?  It sure as #%$^& wasn't any part of the debt ceiling compromise passed this week.  It amazes me that anyone buys the headline story that we are actually going to cut spending.

Earl of Chiswick's picture

The premise is that the media is setting up the tea party as the fall guy for the crappy performance of the economy. Will the American people buy that? 

Well, they voted for Bush twice and Obama once, which some would suggest is a commentary on the quality and competence of the electorate. 

Is there anyone here who thinks that Obama will not try and blame the tea party, he's been blaming Bush for the past 2 1/2 years.

WonderDawg's picture

I hope he tries it, I think it will backfire on his chin. There is a lot of time between now and next year's election. This time in 2007, Hopey was barely on the radar. The thing is, there is some seriously bad shit dead ahead, and his administration is just as guilty as the previous 5, and he's at the wheel now, so he gets credit for driving us over the cliff. He's one and done.

MsCreant's picture

Oh God, the contractions, the contractions, ahhhhhh Godammit---->we must be having a baby! That happens after you get screwed. Maybe giving birth to something better????

SheepDog-One's picture

More like something that has horns and hooves.

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Rosemary's baby?

Heh. Remember It's Alive!!!

mason5566's picture

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treemagnet's picture

I bet unemployment is going higher than that.

john39's picture

like the published numbers mean anything.

MarketTruth's picture

8.9 UE as counted by the US Gov, which does not include those who rolled off (99'ers) and partially UE, etc. Try 19% real/actual UE.

Dr. Engali's picture

Well that depends. Are you talking about the numbers the Bls puts out? That will be whatever they want it to be. Real unemployment won't be reported. Because you know once they drop off the claims they are no longer unemployed according to the Bls. They are just citizens who stopped exisisting.

Boston's picture


Let's hear their forecast for the Labor Force Participation Rate and the Employment-Population Ratio.

Until these improve--meaningfully--we'll be stuck in our depression.

Sudden Debt's picture

A lot of 99 weekers are going to get kicked out of the statistics. It could even go to 7%.

That doesn't mean any of them got a job.... they just don't exist or matter anymore.


Earl of Chiswick's picture

You misunderstand, the 99ers shall soon become 152ers, just as soon as they can figure out how to add that third digit. (it's a Y2K thing)

SheepDog-One's picture

Of course actual unemployment is over 20%. Govt toadies can say its 8% or 1% all they like, reality will crush them at some point with 1/4 of the country unable to work.

Mercury's picture

Forcasting that the unemployment rate will be holding steady over a year from now is extremely optimistic...

brew's picture

not going to happen.  we're just starting to see a new round of major layoffs...merck -10,000 just one example.  double digits by year end is my feel...

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Loved the press to push the S&P higher on the close. SPY's closed at $126.17 but were trading at $126.00 a minute and a half later... ha ha ha.. keep pushing on that string you bunch of morons..


SheepDog-One's picture

Cant they decide what it is they want to do? Cause panic to make people say 'Oh puleeze do ANYTHING to make markets stop dropping so hard'...or keep up the facade 'All is well, markets calm, nothing to see here its fine'.

Archimedes's picture

He will have to revise his numbers again.The US will have a negative 4th QTR or at the latest Q1 2012. In addition to that we will be sub 2% growth for the next 3-5 years.

Careless Whisper's picture



And the worst news for Obama: he will be dealing with 8.9% unemployment during his re-election campaign...

correction: And the worst news for Obama: he will be dealing with Ron Paul during his re-election campaign...

Sudden Debt's picture

With twice the 2008 campaign contributions for 2012 he'll get from his buddies, he'll be fine.


SheepDog-One's picture

Actually, by late 2012 unemployment and elections wont matter a bit, we'll be in a missile launching superpower world war well before then, probably fall of this year actually.

Archimedes's picture


But Ron Paul is fairly worthless. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy. But he is a rambling incoherent 80 year old and is un-electable. He scares most Americans because most Americans rely on Free Govt money.

Besides he has been head of the finance comittee for what 6 months or so and he has not done jack! He had his chance to put Bernanke's feet to the fire and failed.

Jon Huntsman is the ONLY candidate that even stands a chance. Which is really sad when you can't beat a worthless Socialist Democrat. The Rebublicans can't get out of their own way...

Abiotic Oil's picture

Right...  Don't re-elect Obama so that HUntsman, the guy who used to work for Obama, can take his place?


Ron is in better shape than most 40 year olds.

DosZap's picture


Incorrect wording, Ron Paul is not worthless.He has done his damnedest to try and keep the ship on the straight and narrow.
So much so, he's been written off and out in a corner by his own party.

Maybe better is ONE man cannot do it all alone,he TRIED.That's more than I can say for anyone else I know up THERE.

As far as Huntsman, LOL.....Arch, less than 5% of Americans ever heard of him......SCORE ZERO.

A 3rd party candidate, would have to be a real dandy.If Gov.  Perry gets in the race, He will beat Romney,he has lots of baggage, but, so does Mr. I Screwed Up Health Care as Gov.

People at least know who he is, and Texas(most of our success is not due to him), but the nation does not know this or care.

They would look at the economy here, and the growth, and rightly or wrongly see a chance, the best of the worst.

No other candidate(GOP),has a snowballs chance in hell..................IMHO.

Archimedes's picture


I am not saying any Rebublican currently in the race is a great choice. I would vote for Ron Paul if he made it that far. I too believe we need a third Party system as the Two party system is not working. Both parties have screwed the middle class equally for the last 30 years.

I love Ron Paul's Policies and I know he is only one man. But knowing he is probably going to be out of Politics if he does not become President and he has been trying for 20 years to fix what is broken you would thing he would go a little more rogue and make life hell for Bernanke.

Perhaps my wording of being an inchoherent 80 year old were a little harsh. I did not mean it because he was old, but just that when getting a point across it takes him far to long and he loses his effectiveness. I will accept the junks for this post. But those who junked need to be objective too!

Sudden Debt's picture

That decline in Gdp to 1.5%.... is that after of before the hyperinflation?

stormsailor's picture

the /es pushed up to resistance and stopped.  that is a normal reaction to the huge sell off yesterday. 

tomorrow should be a real debbie downer, there isn't much chart support for a ways.

ebworthen's picture

8.9% Unemployment?


Maybe if Obama bribes some folks at the BLS

Reality will be over 10% but we all know reality is nebulous in the new age.

Speaking of employment, I am typing from my local library because wireless is free (well, I pay taxes, so not really) and I am unemployed and actually not spending money on a broadband connection.


Critical Path's picture

8.9% = optimistic at best.

garbled's picture

I expect when Q3 GDP comes out, Q2 gets revised to the 0.1 to -0.2 range.  Then watch the sparks fly.

ZippyBananaPants's picture

Instead of sending more money to my trading account today, I am going to make a donation to Ron Paul. 

Are there enough educated people in the country to make a difference, or are we stuck with the idiots who voted (be nice) in office?

Silverhog's picture

Nice Hail Mary Green for the Dow. Going to take several more economic head butts before the market gets the drift. And that drift is toward the rocks.  

r101958's picture

Today, a 180+ point rally on what news? of the Fed members talking up possible QE3......that is it. Shows what this market is made of doesn't it?

SheepDog-One's picture

That was just to trick fools like Robo and Leo into piling all in for the next big dump.

PulauHantu29's picture

From Today's Der Spiegel (08/03/11):


'The Biggest Loser is the Average American',1518,778178,00.html#ref=nlint

Johnny Lawrence's picture

And the worst news for Obama: he will be dealing with 8.9% unemployment during his re-election campaign, which can now Rest in Peace.

It's by no means a definite that Obama doesn't get re-elected.  First, Americans are idiots.  Second, he's raising substantially more money than any other candidate.  Third, other than Ron Paul, the Republicans have no appealing candidate.

Unfortunately, he may be President again.

ZippyBananaPants's picture


I predict that another democrat might step and run against Obama in the primary.  I think the dem's will realize he is not going to fool us twice.