JP Morgan Warns Gold to Go Parabolic and Rise to $2,500 By Year End
Submitted by Gold Core
JP Morgan Warns Gold to Go Parabolic and Rise to $2,500 By Year End
Gold in USD terms is 2.4% higher and is higher against all currencies and trading at USD 1,760.40 , EUR 1,234.10 , GBP 1,075.70, CHF 1,306.80 per ounce and 132,719.00 JPY.
Gold’s London AM fix was USD 1,770.00, EUR 1241.75, GBP 1080.98. Gold reached new record nominal highs at $1,780.10/oz and new nominal highs in euros and sterling also this morning.
Cross Currency Rates
Asian equities were mixed with sharp falls seen on the Hang Seng but the Nikkei recovered to only finish down 1.7% and the Chinese and Australian stock markets actually managed to rise on the day.
The FTSE, DAX and CAC are down 0.7%, 1.9% and 0.2% respectively but US futures are showing tentative gains.
There were further signs of stagflation in the UK as manufacturing unexpectedly fell in June and the trade gap widened. This is further evidence that the economic recovery is faltering in the UK and QE has not worked.
US Major Debt Holders
U.S. Treasuries dropped, pushing 10-year note yields up from the lowest level since January 2009, on speculation the Federal Reserve may introduce new stimulus measures today to boost financial confidence.
More ‘stimulus’, QE3 or whatever new fangled acronym is dreamed up by desperate policymakers will of course be bullish for gold and silver.
Libor-OIS
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS), raised their gold-price late yesterday.
J.P. Morgan now sees gold prices at $2,500 a troy ounce by year-end, while Goldman expects gold at $1,730 in six months and $1,900 in 12 months.
This may be a sign that the current sharp rally may have reached its zenith as neither bank has a great track record regarding short term trading calls on commodity markets.
In the short term there is the risk of a correction as gold’s rise is now becoming front page (on front page of FT today) and headline news.
The fact that silver has fallen in recent days and remains below $40/oz and the fact that gold mining equities have also not risen may also be a warning signal.
Gold has risen from below $1,500/oz to nearly $1,800/oz in 5 weeks (since the start of July) and is up nearly 18% in dollar terms.
Therefore, in conventional terms gold is most certainly overbought.
However, we are not living in conventional or normal times and the ongoing global market crash and global currency debasement means that there is a chance that gold will go parabolic as it did in the 1970’s.
Investors would be prudent to continue to make the trend their friend and any pullback should be used to buy the dip.
Those wishing to take profits might do so after two days of lower prices or a weekly lower close. However, given the level or market, systemic and monetary risk, all investors are advised to maintain a core financial insurance precious metals holding.
Gold’s bull market looks very secure for the foreseeable future due to strong institutional demand (from astute hedge funds and central banks) and store of wealth demand from Asia.
As does silver’s due to increasing investment and safe haven demand and the continuing growth in industrial demand for the versatile precious metal.
SILVER
Silver is trading at $38.14/oz, €26.73/oz and £23.29/oz.
PLATINUM GROUP METALS
Platinum is trading at $1,722.00/oz, palladium at $732/oz and rhodium at $1,800/oz.
NEWS
(Wall Street Journal)
Gold Hits Another Record
(Financial Times)
Traders target $2,500 high for bullion
(Wall Street Journal)
JP Morgan analyst sees gold at $2,500 by year-end
(CBC News)
Gold may hit US$2,500 in 2011: JP Morgan
(Reuters)
Britain, other eurozone countries face ratings cut: Jim Rogers
COMMENTARY
(The Telegraph)
European Central Bank must go nuclear to save Europe
(King World News)
If you think gold is flying now, wait for QE3, Turk tells King World News
(24hGold)
Change You Don't Have to Believe In
(The Telegraph)
The Bull Case for Gold
»
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Meanwhile, there is no Platinum physical bullion available. Go on, check Apmex. They aint sellin'.
I just hope they don't pull that with gold if gold corrects on more magical news.
gc margin reqs are still low...plenty of room to hike sometime
Tyler makes many great points over time. This is not one of them. The market conditions for gold in 1979/80 versus now are completely different. Gold has de facto achieved currency standing by the way central banks have been buying. Silver on the other hand is not treated as a currency. It is being treated like a commodity by the markets and therefore being priced accordingly. Silver bulls have been wrong and not understood the difference sufficiently. Platinum which 20 times rarer than gold is also just a commodity.
Gold will remain volatile but the direction is unmistakeable. When Saudi Arabis sold its gold holdings to Libya at the bottom some years ago that was the buy signal because they are pretty much always wrong.
Would you please provide a source for that last paragraph. Thank you.
The source is the internet - check it out.
And, BTW ... had to buy some puts on gld today, thanks to JPM hawking it (and it's spectacular run recently). Just consider it a hedge against all that phys.
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The only thing the USA manufactures these days is YOUR OPINION !!!
Opinion? We all know what that is since everybody has one -- or several.
But they are still base on "facts" as presented.
A good reading list always helps.
Got gold? Here are some reads from Ed Steer today:
1] Gold Coins Sell Out in Lisbon as Biggest Bet Sees 22% Gain, Bloomberg
2] South Korea buys gold for first time in 13 years, WSJ
3] Putin calls U.S. 'a parasite' on world, denounces dollar dominance, Reuters
4] Paul proposes bill to cancel $1.6 trillion in U.S. debt to Federal Reserve, The Hill
5] Emerging world buys $10 billion in gold as West wobbles, Reuters
6] The Real Banking Crisis: Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management
7] After buying most of it, China gets mad at U.S. for issuing so much debt, Bloomberg
8] Short-Term Yields Going Negative at Bank of New York, Zero Hedge
9] Hoarding gold beats charts over 25 years: Technical Analysis, Bloomberg
10] As many as 20 owners for each bullion bank gold bar: Jim Rickards, KWN
11] Jim Sinclair is interviewed by GoldMoney's James Turk, GATA
12] Silver is 'investment of the next decade,' Sprott says in GoldMoney interview, GATA
13] MineWeb's Lawrence Williams reports on GATA's London conference, GATA
14] US Can Pay Any Debt It Has Because It Can Print Money To Pay It: Greenspan
15] U.S. could run off with other nations' gold, Rickards tells CNBC
16] Ron Paul Slams Obama's "Monstrous Creature," the Super Congress
17] Eurogeddon postponed again as ECB gains three weeks, The Telegraph
18] Walker's World: The Unseen Punch, UPI
19] Debt Crises and Market Turmoil: Is The World Going Bankrupt? Der Spiegel
20] The world runs out of options, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph
21] The bull case for gold, The Telegraph
22] You'll Be Buying Gold at $2,000/oz - And Higher, Casey Research
23] Fed May Announce QE3 Now Creating Gold Explosion: James Turk, KWN
24] Gold & Markets Signal More "Great Recession" - Richard Russell, KWN
25] Doug Casey Interview, King World News
26] Jim Rickards Interview: All About Gold, King World News
27] JPMorgan analyst sees gold at $2,500 by year-end, WSJ/GATA
"Gold has de facto achieved currency standing by the way central banks have been buying. Silver on the other hand is not treated as a currency. It is being treated like a commodity by the markets and therefore being priced accordingly. "
I had to laugh when I read this! You have put your finger EXACTLY on why silver has far more upside than gold. Silver is not treated as a currency YET! But when paper currencies really crash, it will be, and the catch up in value will be unprecedented in financial history.
The direction of silver is also UNMISTAKEABLE. Try looking at a 10 year chart sometime. Sheesh.
Apmex this, Apmex that - like they're the end all/be all of PMs... fuck Apmex. Their prices are outrageous and their webpage is annoying.
Here's some platinum: http://www.providentmetals.com/bullion/plat/us-plat/ape.html
While I agree with the sentiment, why not go to http://gainesvillecoins.com for even better prices.
Provident also has a crappy BBB rating. I've heard some horror stories about them.
Yea but silver is looking juicy....
Sooo, Max Keiser helped to pump and dump silver with SLA.
Why do we read JPM 'prophecy' 2,5k/oz for a second day in a row here on ZH?
Platinum available at Tulving and Provident. I bought some from Pt eagles Provident yesterday; no problems.
Yes...sell gold today.
Most importantly, sell the VIX by picking up XIV. This will probably be the best performer today...although I would not hold it very long.
+1
I have personal experience with using gold during my country collapse. Gold does save its value - this is true. But its does not work for normal people.
It is dangerous to keep or to move.
You cannot profitably exchange it for food or goods during the crisis.
You need to wait until the end of the crisis when gold market reopens (say 10 years), then you can extract its value into new money (if you are still alive).
Which country are you from?
USSR.
Imagine you sit in one of the looted London surburbs. You have 1 kg of gold in your safe box. Police is elsewhere. The fire started by those youths comes closer and closer to your appartment.
I see your point. One needs a fireproof safe.
Please, tell us more about the USSR experience.
I am happy to tell more. Unlike Dmitry Orlov I was in
Russia during all the funny times and I was in small
business dealing with real situations.
If Zerohedge asks me, I can write several small articles
about my experience with Russian business. They will
be helpful for you guys.
If Tyler isn't interested, you may want to get in touch with this guy:
http://www.survivalblog.com/
Gmpx,@08:39
They are not attacking residents, take your Gold in a sack,etc, and move away from the fire.
The UK has no serious records of crime against the populace, it's raging against the Machine.(albeit they also suck when it comes to self defense issues)
Change the scenario to USA, I take my PM's, and an AR15,5-8mags 28rds each, and a Glock 20, and ten mags w/15rds.
To quote an American Icon,
Feel lucky punk, well do Ya?.........Go ahead make my Day. Choose to live in fear your a victim, chose to be prepared, they lose.
Glock will not help if they take your child and nicely
ask for your gold.
I guess we are made of stronger stock than those wankers; we can carry 1kg.
You stuff it in a backpack, and don your 7.62, filling the sack up with some extra magazines. Pistol up on your hip, etc.
great insight
GMPX
Great post! Your perspective fits with my expectations of things to come.
Yup. Lots of people starting to get into the camp that things can and will get very ugly at some point. Preparation for what might come is not just gold and silver.
You'll need a plan.
Disagree...it is quite good for large purchases such as property, livestock, vehicles and large quantities of fuel.
... or to offer it to the gang which is knocking on your dorr.
You know what was better than any gold? Good brain,
good health, good friends. And above all - luck.
Being a gold owner, I have already told fellow gold/silver bugs
that in the SHTF scenario (madmax). I will not sell my livestock for gold.
You will not have to sell your livestock, they will be taken from you!
And dont come back with some response like I have a big gun.
==> dont come back with some response like I have a big gun
Ahhhh, but I do.
And a literal army of corn-fed, cow raising, red-neck Billy-Bob-Bubba-Joe neighbors who collect guns like baseball cards, who can outshoot any trained sniper, who hang out in the fields and woods for weeks on end, more than half of whom have done 8 years or more of military service, a large chunk of those who have done recent (multiple) combat tours in the SandBox and who would just love to have the opportunity to have at it with a few rustlers confiscating livestock. I've got 8 years prior service myself. Instructor. US Army Infanty School, TRADOC (US Army Training and Doctrine Command). I dare you to come to my neighborhood and help yourself to a sampling of the local livestock. Are you up to the task in my neighborhood?
Your attitude is in need of adjustment. Come out to farm/cattle country some time and stay a while. Your eyes will be opened. It's a different world. Really.
Correct, the value of PMs lies in the ability to transfer wealth through a crisis, not buying your way out of it.
Gold and silver are the last things you should buy after making all of your other preparations.
==> Correct, the value of PMs lies in the ability to transfer wealth through a crisis, not buying your way out of it.
Correction: History shows us, as just one example, that quite a few folks of the Jewish persuasion used their personal stashes of gold to do just that: to "buy their way out" of the country (whatever Nazi occupied country they happened to be in at the time), and start over somewhere else. These folks left any and all other possessions and preparations (other than what they could carry) - they left it all behind.
Sometimes, getting the fuck outta Dodge is the best option, and sometimes "buying your way out" is the simplest way to do it.
True, nobody will be able to exchange your gold for value during the crisis at anywhere near its true value.
True, crime will be rife, both within the government and on the street
Pretty much can't argue with that.
I bought silver to add to my hoard last week for that reason. Gold for the long run!!!
what DID work for normal people?
In the USSR, it was dollars, right?
au overbought short term imo waiting for pullback to buy more
I guess Gold is going to be the leading indicator today.
Silver is extremely weak. It's down 3% while gold is up 1.5%.:(
Actually silver is holding up relatively well, compared to the beating it took in the 2008 crash.
Exactly. In 2008 there was still faith in the currency. Not much left now.
Yeah, weak. It's only double where it was a year ago.
Remember S L A ?
The volume on paper has gone apeshit. Why isn't anyone discussing it? It's in he millions peaking at 20 M or so.
Sell gold, and buy...what?
SELL GOLD AND BUY WHAT???
Silver?
There were some turdites talking about doing this over in Turd Furgeson's neck of the woods. I don't know if anyone actually did it. They were speculating silver having a better return long run. BTFD.
Not so long ago people were talking about selling their Gold to buy Silver because Gold was stuck.
Now Silver is stuck and people are talking about selling Silver to buy Gold. Just bide your time as Gold will settle down and Silver will take wing and fly
again. That or both go parabolic due to a currency crash and then it will not matter which you have.
Lead.
Its going to be another interesting day....T-Bill auction.....Bernanke misspeaks.....and BAC crisis......right now gold up and silver down..big in both directions...Munis got hit hard.....and Thursday will be another 400,000 plus unemployment day.....reatail sales will be ddown...credit cards up....more and more people on food stamps....its no longer a mark of shame..its a right.....why shouldn´t my government by my food...people ran to treasuries..but now they see that mabye they ran to fast.....so I think they will slowly move to PM´s...
boring - still. if you bought gold at $300/oz, Id be impressed. What to buy? Asia debt and consumer shares and US export/tech companies. have a nice day.
agree
I got in at $700 and I'm still impressed.
Bought my first Credit Suisse bar on eBay for $300. Advertised as being having been won as a sales incentive at Microsoft. Still have it.
This article is not very useful. Gold may have peaked or it may go up. D-uh.
Yeahyeah, we get it JPM.... pump'n dump.... buy now, so that we can dump you on the way up when QE3 gets announced, precisely to stem gold from going parabolic.
Bottom line: If things go according to what JPM wants, then what will happen is exactly the opposite of what they are "warning" about... at least in the shortterm.
silvergoldsilver has a link to Blythe Master's website. I think she is fucking silver just to get even for the nasty messages people left on her blog. She will do what she wants when it comes to paper silver, but she can't get the physical. Here is her blog link
http://blythemasters.blogspot.com/ Tell her how happy she makes you
lol...the comments crack me up
Best to be nimble. I have fired up my algo, moved my computer closer to the wall and shortened the cat 5 cable.
Nah this is screaming freegold to me - oil down , silver down , dollars turning into synthetic greenbacks - Italy broke the camels back , Italy & Spain have 3 trillion of sov debt baby.
They need cash to continue with their payments system in a efficent manner.
Which country are you from?.....USSR.
Dude...you musta just popped in from a time machine.
There is no USSR anymore.......but there is a USSA.
Yeah.....really.
Different names.....same results.
Victory in Afghanistan, comrade!
Oh Shit! The Satellite States in the South just broke away again. It's 1861 all over again and our military is scattered all over the world.
Can anyone spare me some gold? Just a few coins please I don't have much money.
The last 3 week move in gold is the top (1650-1750 area) No one is bearish on gold and obviously people regard it as a "safe" haven. Everyone including sovereigns are in and on board. This train to their chagrin is going backwards. The high seen overnight won't be seen again for decades if then.
Nice try. Only the governments and central banks of the most powerful nations in the world know where this is going, and they are stacking gold. Do you suppose they bought it because they know the value will go down?
That presupposes that governments and central banks are good money managers. It also reflects maximum pain. CNN just spent 10 minutes telling everyone that people are leaving the uncertainty of the stock market and fleeing to the safety of gold.
Look at a chart of gold from 1980 to early 2000's...sure was a need for safe havens then but gold wasnt it. Explain to me why it is now. Just because? How do you know when you don't need it anymore? The maximum amount of people and governments are in the metal now. You just need more people and governments to buy after you did. Good luck.
lfmfao - "the maximum amount of people are in the metal now"
That meager 1% of the population equals maximum amount for you? What are you smoking, I want some of that!
Couldn't have said that better! Totally ignorant, Sarah!
We are repeating the 1929 crash and depression. We have entered the second dip where no one trusts the governments money. This caused an attempted confiscation of Gold as it had become a direct currency competitor with the US Dollar at that time and it was losing. Repeating history is a bitch. Go now and read the history of the Great Depression and use it as a guide.
Oh awesome, a new super-confident PM troll.
So troll, are you short gold, or are you just another do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do run of the mill troll?
"Why it is now" - that's just about the most commonly discussed topic, and if you don't know by now, there's hardly a point to debating you.
Look halfwit people also forgot chicken soup was good for you because McDonalds came along. Does that mean chicken soup isn't really good for you?
Your "rationale" for people needing to buy after you applies to EVERYTHING dumbass. 1980 the interest rate went over 20%. That is nowhere near on the horizon anymore and even if it were I think it's too late as people realize the rating agencies, banks and financial institutions are as corrupt as the government and will spend and steal until there are no productive people remaining.
There are trillions in paper debts for sovereigns and large banks and they have not even started to buy gold yet just as the major funds haven't but a few.
And seriously!?!?! CNN is your great indicator!?!? Who the fuck even watches that garbage anymore? You are behind the times, out of the loop, left in the dust, and you don't even know it. You know what else happened in the last historic gold run up? It went up 2400% from it's starting price. In this case that is $256; you can do the math...there is something called a calculator now too.
People don't need luck they need to disregard troll asspuppets like you.
ANY "strength" today will be SOLD SHARPLY, QE3 ain't coming just yet! Gold will move higher, Silver will catch up soon enough! Fact is though, FED won't move until JH! So plenty of time to back up the truck on what you please to have:))!
Yee guys are too dollar centric - Gold is intregal to the Euro system - if the Euro dies Gold dies but it ain't dead yet.
Gold may be integral to the Euro, but that in no way implies that the Euro is integral to Gold. "if the Euro dies Gold dies"???? WTF are you smokin' today, Dork? Is this some obscure celtic joke?
The dollar reserve is back in business............................
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCIUf8eYPqA
Junk button, please?
and the dumbasses are probably shorting it.
when fox news tells you to buy gold.. it is probably time to sell... and buy silver.. http://www.silverrevolucion.com/index.php?category=silver
Ok...can someone please explain somthing to me. Here at work I only have one way to invest in hold and that is the Fidelity Gold Mining Fund FSAGX...problem is there seems to be a huge disconnect between the Fund and the price of Gold...this is very frustrating !!!
Ok...can someone please explain somthing to me. Here at work I only have one way to invest in hold and that is the Fidelity Gold Mining Fund FSAGX...problem is there seems to be a huge disconnect between the Fund and the price of Gold...this is very frustrating !!!
the top holdings in the fund are mining companies...unfortunately the miners are going down with the rest of the market r now...also (the miners) do not always necessarily track the price of gold...they'll do ok later i expect...if you want gold/silver exposure the best way imo is to buy bullion with your extra cash...imo
Yes and naked shorting is rife among the miners. TPTB hate bullion and miners, but their ability to fix the price of the miners is much stronger than with bullion.
Mines are subject to nationalization by the host government. Every mine in every country is vulnerable including the USA. The instant the government wants the mine for what has become it's only currency source your stock value goes to ZERO.
DZZ priced like an option that never expires... for those feeling a little bloated with their gold horde.
Odd; they didn't mention Silver going parabolic......
methinks one of the 'dynamics' that is not getting sufficient 'press' in the West (Europe & No. America) is that Asia and So. America, but particularly Asia, is very concerned about inflation and store of value. This too complicated, behavioral and possibly cultural (also imply historical ..... generation after generation have seen massive instability .... natioanlly, regionally, politically, economically, etc.).
As a demographically broad new global middle class emerges, which is natural enough, you have different patterns & ripple effects emerge .... beileve gold bid panic is part of this.
Would love to see some global bid proportion analysis ... am sure the "West' (here including Middle East) is still driver but have to believe 'Asia' starting to impact more & more
Some of the forecasts for gold may be completely out to lunch, but others have been much more accurate. I see the top-calling hasn't changed.
This forecast was published some time ago on 321gold.com:
files.me.com/fransix/k95iib
Its looking very much like $1880 is a very good guess.