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JPM Blowtorching Continues As IG Surge Refuses To End
As first pointed out here last week, IG9 10Y credit risk has pushed nothing but wider since the JPM news broke. Between the size, common-knowledge, and technical richness of the position, liquidity is providing its helping hand as the legacy credit index is now 25bps worse than last week's lows (and 17bps worse than when JPM announced) - while the on-the-run IG18 is only 10bps wider over this period. Extrapolating the $200mm DV01 we assumed from the initial announced loss and spread movement, this is potentially an additional $3.4bn loss for JPM already (who we can only assume have been trying to unwind). Until the skew (the spread between the index and its components) narrows further - which it is today (though momentum will take over at some point in the index itself) - it is likely that the runaway train will keep going and going, until JPM issues a formal announcement that the firm is fully out of the trade, together with a final tally of its losses, which will probably be double the reported loss as of Thursday.
Here is the good news: we are 100.4% certain JPM was the ONLY prop trading bank to be massively, massively short IG9-18 into this epic blow out. Because if other had suffered billion dollar losses, they would all pull a Jamie Dimon and fess up. Right?
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"Buy JPM now!"
- Dick Bove
Not even JPM is stupid enough to go public with this shit before they've unwound their positions ... uhm ... right? ... Unless of course, regulators forced their announcement by going public with their investigation.
Rega... reggu... regehhhh... I'm afraid I'm not familiar with that word.
I just want to make it clear here that it's not JPM getting blowtorched. It's the suckers(taxpayers). Good times, muppets!
Qu'est-ce que c'est "investigation"?
va te coucher imbécile!
For a coup d'etat to succeed, it need only to succeed. Any investigation is controlled by the new leadership.
"JPM Blowtorching Continues"
What can one say to that other than "Hahahahahahahahahahaha!"?
Tyler, what is the bloomberg code for IG9 10Y and IG18 ?
Its CDX IG CDSI S9 10Y
Blowtorching.....where's Trav when you need him?
Things haven't been nearly as fun around here since Trav got banned. He was provocative, but the silver threads always gave me a good laugh.
How did he get banned?
How did that whole inventing derivatives thing work out Blythe?
She's sending out the flying monkeys as we speak. You'll rue the day....
Nicely. She removed 3 rivals from the executive ranks.
Movin on up!
Dear Jamie: how's your mark-to-market?
Sincerely,
The Circling Vultures
Mark to model, and the model was glued back together several times at this point. Long Krazy Glue.
at least this JPM ordeal seems to have shut the Ben Bitch Bernake up pretty good. Can't come out and start moaning how he singlehandedly is saving the world from collapse. Motherfuckerrrrr.
Bernanke's lack of actual experience led him to believe various lies told by bankers about their own financial conditions. His last two QEs were too small and misdirected for the crisis. If you are going keynesian in the Greater Depression, you can't half step. And you can never believe anything that comes out of Jamie Dimon's or Buffett's mouthes.
At 100x leverage. Blowtorching seems like an understatement. Burn baby burn. Can you say "pile on", I knew you could.
Partial payback for their hand in aiding and abetting the FED in silver/gold market manipulations. FOAD to both of you turds...
HOW DO I GET INTO THIS FEAST LEVERAGED?
I think most of us piled on to this trade last week when Tyler broke the story. Probably won't go on much longer.
WHY ARE WE YELLING?
You shouldn't be in this market in May and you know that.
RUMOUR HAS IT:- JP WILL MAKE A NEW ANNOUNCEMENT ON ITS CIO UNIT TOTAL TRADING LOSSES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AMOUNTING TO NEARLY 7$ BILLION....OUCHH..AT WHICH POINT THE SHARE PRICE WILL BE TRADING AS LOW AS 28$ THE PIECE
wonder which will come first ... QE3 or JPM announcing a bigger loss ...
HOW DO YOU PLAY THIS THING ? WHAT DO YOU BUY OR NOT BUY TO BENEFIT OR STAY OUT OF THE WAY WHAT ? !!!!!!
TURN OFF THE FUCKING CAPS LOCK.
Crap.......take some aspirin or do a bong hit?
It is sorta early for aspirin I suppose.
Never too early for asprin.
HOW DO YOU PLAY THIS THING ?
1) Continue buying physical silver
2) Pop some corn
Questions...?
YOU BTFD....IN GOLD!!!!!!!!!
CUZ BAILOUTS AND QE'S ARE A'COMIN'
HOW DO YOU PLAY THIS THING ?
Place your bets on RED.
US banks CDS are all up, with JPMC leading the pack. Not fun in the summer time!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/14/med-uncertainty-greek-and-spanish-yields-spike-10-yr-us-treasury-futures-highest-on-record/
All banks are dead men walking. The real question is will the average account holder and investor be made whole this time around or will the politico bailout the management and the elite like they did last time? That is the 700 trillion dollar question. I don't think the public and individual investor/account holder will go for another round of TARP/TALF bullshit, but with ZIRP for these mother fuckers already does it really matter? They get free capital, you get pain and pay the real interest and inflation for them. Execute these asshats already.
Execution is too good for them. Make them work at McDonalds or Walmart and try to live on 6.50 an hour.
They have no idea what work is.
In the USA, the "average account holder" will be fine, because he's got almost no money in the bank.
The average investor will be scalped.
But it's important to keep in mind that "the average [whoevers]" don't have any say in whether more TALPing/TALFing gets done. Obama could decide to give up on the November election any day of the week. Congress is guaranteed to make the worst possible decision in all circumstances.
The question could be raised also whether JPM was taking prop trading positions that were opposite to the interests of their clients, à la Goldman?
Didn't work out quite as expected in that case...
JPM is being shorn of their gold while selling it at ever lower prices to the Eastern Coalition. GLD? Jamie is tapping that ass furiously.
JPM is trapped. JPM is being rope-a-doped. To DEATH. Deutsche Bank is even worse off....
Boyz, you can say say goodbye to any gold you do own. Boyz, you are going down.
We look forward to chasing you down in the streets and having a nice, peaceful talk about what you've done to all of us. You shouldn't worry at all about that.
Should you?
Long ropes and guillotines, no worries.
What if all the silver miners announced production cutbacks due to the slow market?
Arilines, autos, everybody else does it.
On a by-product basis, you have answered your own question. There are few primary Silver mines in the World.
I am pretty sure every ounce that was left in GLD or SLV was dumped over the last year to try and hold back the tide. Those two ETFs will certainly be completely drained before the last act. Which is sad, because I am pretty sure the government was counting on nationalizing those things in the future.
My guess is that they saw something coming but were too early and couldn't hang on. Just desserts imo.
Peter said they sold and are probably long now. They are making a killing right now...
I hear that JP Morgan is massively short on another position. It's a monetary commodity with solid supply/demand fundamentals. I'm going to love watching that one blow up in its face.
before i laugh uncontrollably like a mad scientist, isnt this our money?
It's everyone's money now.
Unless you can touch it, you don't own it.
As much as Monoploy money is our money
Somehow the Fed will assume a massive short IG9-18 position any minute.
In for a penny, in for a Quadrillion.
Repo collateral being short positions? Is it me, or does that sound like a fucking awful idea?
Coming up, no doubt.
I just can't rationalize whay JPM, knowing that the rules don't apply to them, would announce this position before they were already out.
It was coming out via another source .... being first gave them the illusion of damage control
George ... The Greek ... From Canada
Yeah. It was in the news for a month before they admitted it was a problem.
If you want to know what JP Morgan is going through right now, watch the trailer to "Margin Call" (cool flick if you haven't already seen it)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2DqFRsPrns
George ... The Greek ... From Canada
Jamie's Lament
If that blowtorch is fired up - then I am standing by with the gas can.
Burn, baby - it's long overdue for those bastards.
The Collapse in the BDI a few months back was a good indicator of the credit meltdown. Of course not a word mentioned in the MSM. Silver is also sensitive to credit which acts as a lei.
gotta keep people focused on the stats that are easily manipulated and are relatively meaningless. Numbers that matter: BDI, Tax revenue, labor participation... you can lie, but you can't really fudge. People who want to suggest we are in a wile-e-coyote moment suspended in mid-air are not watching the fall. It's free fall... in plain sight, hidden to most. Remarkable.
Hey Jamie. move the derivative exposure over to the Chase Banking, then the FDIC will bailout any future blow ups...problem solved
All in process, coming soon:
New BRICS transfer & settlement system
New gold-backed EuroMark (Germany finally walks away from worthless trash. Oh and un-backed paper too :-)
New gold & energy-backed Ruble
New gold-backed Yuan
New gold & energy-backed Dinar
Swift: not a weapon, utterly irrelevent
Western "money" centers, London, New York, Frankfurt & the "bullion" banks: ain't no bullion here
Petrodollar: a quaint bit of history
The USA, UK, S. Europe: Hello Third World Livin'
Western Money Power Kingpins: will use their ejection from the new Fair Money System of the Family of Civilized Nations as an occasion to try to start World War 3. It's their default strategy.
This time? They'll be stopped.
This just gets better and better until such time as the non-Federal non-Reserve bails them out with new dollars that the taxpayer is on the hook for.
I like the physical pm's of course.. but a 50 % decline in Ag YOY.. doesn't signal good times ahead.
I would like to know some names. Who does the silver trading for JPM? Where do they live?
omit
green shoots, bitchez!