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JPM Cuts First Solar Price Target To $50

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just when the world's most pummeled stock of the past year thought it may see a brief short covering rally, here comes JPMorgan: "We are establishing our Dec-2012 price target and lowering it to $50 for FSLR due to what we believe has been significant erosion in investor confidence on the longer term growth story for the solar PV sector and the company. This has resulted in significant compression of the P/S multiple for FSLR from a recent range of 4.0x to 6.0x to a 1.4x level as of late. Historically, FSLR traded at a significant premium to other Solar PV stocks. This premium continues, but to a lesser extent. We believe that investors as a group no longer view the Solar PV market as a growth sector and that the stock multiple compression for FSLR is evidence of the increasing level of pessimism the Street has towards the sector outlook." And with that the Icarus Lazarus moment for the solars is postponed indefinitely.

 

 

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Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:48 | 1805619 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Lol!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:10 | 1805727 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Well since its up close to 8% today, I guess the market disagrees!

Perhaps the Morgue should stick to what it does well - shorting silver!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:57 | 1806125 sqz
sqz's picture

The one I'd really want to invest in is Brightsource Energy - a Google-backed venture making what will become the largest Concentrated Solar Power plant in the world in the Mojave, California desert (Ivanpah project). Unfortunately, it is not listed/private.

Of the three types of solar, PV, CSP and updraft. CSP looks the most effective for central power plants.

PV looks great for household roofs. The cost of that where I live is still more than 2.5 times higher than other markets around the world, so no chance yet. Need more competition.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:28 | 1805826 Innocent Bystander
Innocent Bystander's picture

Negotiations over the potential sale of First Solar’s 550 MW Topaz photovoltaic power project to Enbridge have faltered.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:49 | 1805622 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Solar panals are another hedge against gov't finanacial mismangement.  Anyone on a fixed income will see a greater and greater % of their income going to food and energy.  Solar panals are a hedge against debasement of the US$.  

 

I simply fail to see how solar industry is not a growth industry.  

 

Long STP

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:53 | 1805634 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I think more like a niche industry.  I am about to invest in a solar setup at the bunker.  Those giant CMEs on the far side are becoming more frequent and they may not always be on the far-side.  And whats up with changing the frequencies on the grid to 8 different freqs? 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:20 | 1806026 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

never happen.. 60 is the magic number and will remain the magic number..

or all homes will have to be retro fitted for??

transmission waves? for long distance.. but that would not effect home users.

Solar! and if you are at altitude??  wind power.. once you are up above 5,000 feet the wind runs about 20mph.. which is a broad stroke average.. but it is great! and even better! Water.. wind turbine / water turbine are one and the same as far as I am concerned.

You need water more than food.. why not capitalize and use water as a power source..

I am just trying to share some long, hard fought lessons that I have learned.

Good Luck and God Bless!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:02 | 1805688 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

No one on a fixed income can afford to pay for solar panels.  If you want energy self-reliance, a stand alone diesel unit plus a 1,000 gallon underground tank should get you a good chunk of time.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:26 | 1806042 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

marine diesel.. or good diesel... $5,000 on up dollars.

Underground tank.. $5,000 (purchase of tank and install ONLY!)

filling the 1,000 gallon Tank.. $4,000(ish) dollars (yes you could use purple fuel for less)

these numbers are WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY  under what someone who does NOT know what they are doing would pay!

so.. lets say $14,000 dollars..

Sine Wave Converter $3,000.

Solar Panels $3 bucks a watt for good panels call it $6,000 for 2,000 watts.

Batteries leaves you $4,000 for batteries.

so.. buck for buck.. I would rather have 2,000 watts that I could grow forever than an enviromental clean up without a super fund to dip into!

Jus sayin!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:21 | 1806194 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I hate to tell you this but Solar Panels do not last forever.

Typical Solar panel life expediency = 20 yrs max. Most get changed out due to reduced output every 10 years.

Batteries will need to be replaced every 4 to 5 years, if you do the required maintenance.

Your going to hate that once a week battery bank maintenance. After a couple of years you'll get sick of it all and sell it for scrap.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:13 | 1806359 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Bullshit again.

Wow I fill my batteries maybe twice a year.my thinfilm panels were supposed to lose some initial power over time been beyond four years or longer and have not lost any power.

You lie and will lie again im sure

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 13:51 | 1809119 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiksOJE0r9g

China is controlling rare earths and silver for solar panel production..

Light Sweet Crude, Peak Affordable Oil..

If people cannot grasp the facts of wage arbitrage and how the cost of bunker fuel is going to push the broken global trade model into the garbage can!

Physical Solar and / or other alternative and / or being self sufficient.. with regard to providing power for yourself is a hedge for quality of life later.

I am not going to just survive, I am going to live and live well.. regardless of what the other dumbasses in the World have or have NOT! prepared for.

My Family will be Comfortable and Happy..

People that are running around blindly because they dont want to come face to face with the facts.. are the same people who will be sitting in the dark, freezing in the winter eating cold canned foods.

I will NOT! allow any belief of mine to get in the way of the FACTS!

It goes back to the old story about the guy sitting and watching TV.. and the weather man says there is a flood coming.. but the guy believes that God will save him, because he prays.

http://www.faithfieldguide.com/2011/02/02/does-god-always-answer-our-prayers/

The Moral is that God gives us ALL! plenty of warning and faith is Great! but working in Faith is better!

 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 13:52 | 1809125 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

20 years of power verses 1,000 gallons of diesel is FOREVER!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:34 | 1806068 RobD
RobD's picture

That is for sure. I'm adding solar to my retreat cabin and the cost per kw is outrageous. 7kw propane generator = $2000, 4kw solar = $5000. Would not have been able to swing the solar if Grandma hadn't died and left me part of her nest egg.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:05 | 1805696 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Shit, I want a solar panel at least to heat my hot water tank. The energy we all waste on having hot water on a moments notice. Fucktard population should show desire to save energy and become more independent of the energy cabal, as bad as the finance.

Let's all stay in line and follow the moron. soon to be zombies.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:09 | 1806344 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Ruffcut

You need a thermal hot water collector not a panel.It is suprising how much hot water a family uses.If I built over again I might have done the solar hot water first but either or, or both you will not lose.

lol , A lot of fucktards will never get it.Glad you do.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:08 | 1805720 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Congratulations, you have made the successful conservative libertarian case for solar power.

Solar power is a huge boon to the independent-minded. The global statists want you connected to the grid-- just another form of dependency. Solar undermines that agenda.

The only reason that the Left has supported renewable energy is because it fit into their AGW scheme. Now that AGW has been debunked, the Left is abandoning renewables. The Right, of course, prefers fossil fuels, so they are quite happy to follow suit. It is hilariously ironic that GWB did more for renewables than any other president who ever lived, and certainly 10x more than Obama.

Thank heavens for the Chinese, and all the PV manufacturing capacity they built up in the last few years. Anyone who isn't taking advantage of the low prices for solar systems isn't fully awake.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:04 | 1806332 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Well done Buckaroo and correct.

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:51 | 1806110 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Solar Panels never repay their initial cost. There life span is between 15 and 20 years and it takes 30 years of costs savings to break even. If you want to be self sustainable the only real option is steam power. A generator hooked to a battery bank (also required by solar panels) can be recharged once a week by firing up the boiler and steam engine for a few hours. You can burn your trash in the boiler along with any other sort of available fuel source such as wood waste. Fall brings a bounty of free fuel falling from the trees. Your steam engine is not dependent on a clear sky.

 

http://youtu.be/xksDjfLbcQ0

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:01 | 1806320 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Solar panels never repay their initial cost.

Im raising the bullshit flag.

 I take it you do not have a solar power system. Depends on how you do it and what kind of system. You can push your steam power but do not take away from solar to do it there is no silver bullet that does it all.

My system paid for itself and gives me $75.00 to $100.00 a month.

Real income because the power company is not getting it.that money can be reinvested in something that makes more of a return so,...

 So your comment is in error

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:50 | 1805625 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

Sell, Leo sell!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:03 | 1805691 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Don't miss him at all. His long Greek bond call was epic.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:46 | 1806098 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Leo is a lost soul trying to capitalize and participate in a corrupt system.

Participating in the lie for loss or benefit is wrong..

of course if someone were to choose to wear blinders and thusly ignore the truth, then its on to participate! LOL!!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:07 | 1806340 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"Leo is a lost soul trying to capitalize and participate in a corrupt system."

 

Leo is a corrupt soul losing capital trying to participate in a solar system

There fixed it for ya  ;)

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 13:53 | 1809132 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

thats funny!

but! you should buy solar, physical solar.. not stocks.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:50 | 1805628 danger close here
danger close here's picture

stupid fking idiots only $100 late on the downgrade

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:53 | 1805633 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

They must be long now, LOL.

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:57 | 1805656 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

(setting a buy order at $50)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:12 | 1805750 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Exactly. This is a great buy signal.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:53 | 1805632 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Leo?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:37 | 1806268 greyghost
greyghost's picture

wasn't leo the one with the medical problem that surgery helped? hope he is doing better

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:54 | 1805638 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Chinese solar companies?  Eh, Leo?  Looks like physics and math really DO work after all.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:54 | 1805640 sabra1
sabra1's picture

whatever happened to "the first electric car?" what happened to oBLAHma and his clean coal program? coal plants are being closed down, not replaced. smart meters to be implimented soon, will control your allowed allotment. solar power, any kind of windmill will be disallowed. oil prices to skyrocket once iran war takes hold. once oil reaches $150.00+ american oil fields will open up. worlds largest oil rig is now in place in alaska! so large, sarah can see it from her house!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:56 | 1805649 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Translation, looks like the sheeple are watching the Feds since Solyndra. That spigot's going to be turned off for a tick while we reboot the scare machine that is global warming. Since no rational party will ever gamble their own money on this bullshit, a decline in gubbermint largesse means no activity but liquidation in this economy of the future. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:55 | 1805650 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Translation: "We here at JPM are ready to ramp the living crap out of FSLR with our proprietary "Pied-Piper Lemming buy, buy, buy algo HFT program" in order for that to happen we need good entry points, thus we are downgrading the p.o.s. in order to acheive this objective."

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:59 | 1805666 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

I fail to see why this is news?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:05 | 1805705 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

oil industry is powerful enough to elect presidents and shape foreign policy  ... what are the chances these group will allow solar  to survive as anything other than deranged boutique industry?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:19 | 1805781 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Imagine taking investment advice from a company so insolvent that they create new forms of crime to cover their billions in negative value.  Imagine taking investment advice from a company so mired in illusion that they don't discuss the failing grid that provides the electric power through most of our nation, and how when it breaks, its broken.  Imagine taking advice from a company making money on oil and shorting anything that might benefit humanity to give a truthful report about anything?

since we are talking about one of the biggest organized crime families in the world,  one might expect to bet against anything they say, as it can not possibly have been said to benefit anyone but themselves.  Every week ZH catches another company shorting what they recommend to the public, or vice versa.

If we go solar, they lose. Kind of simple when you really get down to it.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:21 | 1805784 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

seems i can't get much solar when 6pm hits ..but my neighbor has a yard light guess that might help..I know in the deep winter snowy days the cells they just don't give much..power not that I would need it then as hibernation is coming in vogue.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:24 | 1805802 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Pure Pump 'n' Dump ! Pump da bitch full o' licker 'til she passes out on her back in the Animal House vestibule ! Rip her blouse open, pull her bra down, trousers down, squat and take a dump on her solar plexis ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Trading Strategies

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:49 | 1805908 malek
malek's picture

LOL! What was their previous price target by the way?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:54 | 1805919 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Investment in solar companies will always backfire while cheap fossil fuels are available. By the time cheap fossil fuels are no longer available investment in solar companies will backfire even more because the economy will be so dysfunctional that solar companies will be amongst the first to be cannibalized.

By all means, take advantage of the products such companies offer while they're around. Invest in solar for your personal future electricity, be smarter than 99.9% of the sheeple, but don't be stupid by investing in the companies themselves. I got burned investing in solar companies many moons ago, learned my lessons and now treat them the same way I treat flashpan techs. Great shorting opportunities.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:52 | 1806304 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Mediocritas

I appreciate your honesty,almost stepped into buying some solar stock but saw how they were going to squash the market by inaction right at the peak of solar goodtimes.The administration ha ha of this country has basically killed almost everything.

Main reason i did not have first solar on my list of buys was because they got to high to fast and did not let the regular joe buy they only sold to commercial businesses so it was kinda f you too. now im laughing heartily

Yes people should buy the Solar (products) right now while prices are cheap panels and other items have come way down in price and i doubt the will go much lower.

I have had solar for many years and it gives me a steady return every month.just won a renewables monthly gift from the ALTE renewable energy store.The system has already paid for itself.

I suppose people would rather lose money in the stock market/forex and lose on lotto everyday but will not buy solar to supplement their pocketbook or wallet........strange but guess thats why they are called losers.

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:42 | 1806280 Burnsy
Burnsy's picture

Remember our bet, Leo Kolivakis?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!