JPM Cuts Q3 GDP Forecast From 3% To 2%

Tyler Durden's picture


So it starts.

"Taking down the US growth projection has almost become a summertime ritual, and in keeping with tradition we are shaving our 2012 GDP outlook (Q4/Q4) from 2.3% to 2.1%. Over the first five months of the year the labor market has steadily lost momentum and we are now confronted with a global growth slowdown which will provide a further headwind to the economy. As such, we are taking Q3 growth from 3.0% to 2.0%, with much of the downward revision accounted for by an expectation that the pace of export growth will slow. We are leaving our Q4 forecast unchanged at 2.0%, though there are downside risks to that quarter as the fiscal uncertainties could weigh on the economy. One thing we are not changing is our Q2 growth projection, which we still see as coming in around 2.5% with only modest downside risks. The exercise of adding up current quarter indicators has received support from today's April real consumption number, which gives a firm start to consumer spending for the quarter. Below is our revised forecast table."

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Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:00 | 2485051 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

Revisions, bitchez!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:02 | 2485062 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WHO WANTS MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!????????????

- The President of the United States of America, Barack H. Obama, June 1st, 2012

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:13 | 2485083 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

gold decoupling from oil

KSA is dumping all oil and going ALL IN into gold.

GDP == Grand Demoturd Party

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:13 | 2485128 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

The Mostly-gay Mainstream Media in America is not going to be happy about this.

JPM MUST BE RASSISS!! They are only doing this to harm a black man, the Messiah Obama!

Ya, that's the ticket!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:12 | 2485094 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

JPM, slow as usual.  I posted hit to GDP after ISM export/import numbers came out...............but oh yeah, they have to run it thru their model......what a joke.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:18 | 2483929 ihedgemyhedges

Vote up!

Vote down!


Imports flat, exports number big drop.  Dollar strength going to tank GDP...............

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:36 | 2485270 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

You just have to run it through the JPM translator app.  It comes out like this.

We've fully established our short positions based on inside information from the Federal Reserve White House lobbying syncophant muppets, and are ready to front-run you on the way down, so please sell all you can so that we can legally steal some more of your money.  Have a great weekend!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:01 | 2485055 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Who could have seen this coming?

Our man in Amsterdam.........Tyler. That's who.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:02 | 2485066 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Bold call there JPM ... really going out on a limb with that one ...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:12 | 2485098 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I'm feeling some kind of market crushing headline after the bell today-something like that S&P downgrade like on that Friday last August.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:08 | 2485099 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

...and i am thankful for the return of the red headed t shirt girl.....

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:18 | 2485149 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

All I'm getting are computer components for ads. Time to clean dirty up my cookies. :>)

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:01 | 2485057 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

"...the pace of export growth will slow."

Short CAT and JOYG

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:05 | 2485081 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

And long the Deere.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:11 | 2485116 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Long HOPE....

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:02 | 2485059 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Hindsight is 20/20

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:02 | 2485069 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Unless you're an economist...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:30 | 2485233 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

Long hindsight.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:02 | 2485061 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Fuck JPM! Wesbury said this bitch is #plowhorsing in April. Must be true. I just can't figure out the red numbers in he unrealized loss column next to all the alphadex ETFs I bought on account of his bullishness.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:04 | 2485071 gramps
gramps's picture

"As such, we are taking Q3 growth from 3.0% to 2.0%, with much of the downward revision accounted for by an expectation that  jpm will be the first bank failure."

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:04 | 2485075 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Looks okay-ish when you say from 3% to 2%.

But when you see that as a 33% contraction, it leaps out and bites you on the nose.

Especially when the numbers and fluffed and fudged anyway.


Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:05 | 2485079 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Mark Hulbert says not to worry, this is just a normal correction and stocks will rebound:


Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:06 | 2485084 bdc63
bdc63's picture

wow ... just wow ...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:07 | 2485088 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Bull market' which was created by what, ramming home hot trillions while everyone lived in delusion?

Not gonna happen...unless they were to pump in about $4 trillion dollars minimum then the whole thing blows up like the space shuttle Challenger.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:23 | 2485183 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I had a discussion with a friend the other night at dinner (who is just in the beginning phases of 'catching on' ~ government contractor, go figure)... Story goes like this...


She acknowledges all the irregularities, but makes a summary call that if this stuff has been going on for several years (as I'd explained), how come things haven't collapsed and seem to be doing fine? TPTB must be doing pretty good at averting a disaster right? RIGHT?

I explained... The best way to describe it is like a scene in some movie where there is a crazed killer or wild animal charging at you at full speed (this is all happening in slow motion on the screen)... You've already pumped several high calibre rounds into the zombie, & for all intentes & purposes, it's clinically dead, but it's kinetic motion is still carrying it forward... In all likelihood (as it always happens in the movies), the zombie will finally come to a rest at your feet... Whereby, panic turns into relief... Then, when you're suitably calm, a final adrenaline fueled, electric impulse will surge through the already dead body just as you're bending down to take a closer look...

Something like that... (so if you have friends & family who still need some splainin' ~ that's the best francis_sawyer can offer)...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:26 | 2485218 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Pretty good.

I usually just say. If you can't see what I happening already you will be fine. Don't worry about a thing!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:27 | 2485220 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So did ya get any or what?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:17 | 2485146 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

I really wouldn't be surprised if the market rallies.  I also wouldn't be surprised if it continues to tank.  Valuations just don't matter in Bizzaro world.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 13:44 | 2500120 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

That will be small in the end.


Charms and Beads

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:04 | 2485080 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:07 | 2485093 bdc63
bdc63's picture

yes, but the P no longer stands for "product" but rather "propaganda"

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:13 | 2485126 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH yes ok.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:08 | 2485096 Assetman
Assetman's picture

I still think their Q2 projection is too high.


Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:56 | 2485366 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

They simply missed minus sign.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:10 | 2485106 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Pump and dump.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:11 | 2485119 TomGa
TomGa's picture

2% Still that high?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:56 | 2485375 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

That's after all creative accounting, assuming best scenario.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:12 | 2485122 Big Beta Bill
Big Beta Bill's picture

When is zh going to publish the story about how obama needs to create xxx,xxx amount of jobs by his second term to return to normal?



Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:26 | 2485209 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think ZH's numbers around 300,000 jobs a month needed thru ObaMao's imaginary 2nd term to return to 2009 levels.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:14 | 2485134 pissing_excellence
pissing_excellence's picture

Looks like somebody rolled snake eyes.  Aww, fuck it its friday. weeeeeeeeeee!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:15 | 2485136 Conman
Conman's picture

Forget GDP, what's JPM's revision to the "2 Billion" they lost? Inquiring minds want to know, isnt it at this point their fiduciary obligation to disclose it it, if it is much larger? Wait what am i saying, of course they will just hide it off balance sheet.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:22 | 2485168 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think our problems may be over boys! These guys are refuckulating the space modulator and have made contact with space bailouters!

Trailer Park Boys - Commander Bubbles - YouTube

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:23 | 2485177 Satan
Satan's picture

I'm not sure JPM have enough credibility anymore for ZH to be posting their reports.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:28 | 2485225 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Try 0.5% with fudging included.

JPM is just trying not to piss off the SEC by not doing an Egan-Jones "tell it like it is".

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:32 | 2485247 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Margin Stanley raises the odds for a QE print job by 30bps to 80 % !! Rumor du jour.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:33 | 2485256 ryoma
ryoma's picture

Who is making the killing on treaury's at this point.  China, Japan? 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:37 | 2485273 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The FED and Treasury because debt doesn't matter, unless you are an individual and owe taxes.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:38 | 2485283 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

People who realize there is still a price component to treasuries and not just "negative real yields". That would leave out most on ZH.

I think Dr. Engali has been consistent on a sub 1 TNX but I can't think of any t bond bulls besides him here.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 15:00 | 2485323 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

You want revisions? Got your revisions right here Sparky:

The jig is up if ever an angel finds out about your lying ways. Especially an angel with 4 trillion computational units stuffed into her t-shirt. You think she won't pull the trigger? Hell yeah she will. It's Miller Time! as little Fortran pops open several gates of voltaic Hell in pursuit of the truth. 

Only at Zerohedge.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 14:57 | 2485374 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Well hell, originally they were only off by 1%. No wonder they get the big money.


And did Diamond find the missing $2B. Because Corzine just said he didn't know where it went -- and that excuse seemed to work.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 16:26 | 2485714 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Wow! Inflation-adjusted GDP change is negative again. What a surprise!

And the 2% nominal GDP growth is B.S. anyway:


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