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JPM Expects Fed To Acknowledge Inflation Tomorrow As Hawks Continue Dissenting
While largely uneventful to most, the tomorrow's FOMC statement redline to the January one will be promptly scoured by algos everywhere for even the tiniest mention of the word inflation, as that will not only push back any hopes for a quick QE episode, but may temper expectations that ZIRP will last through 2014 (as the shaky 3 Year auction earlier indicated). And if JPMorgan's Michael Feroli is right, inflation is precisely what will be Bernanke's oh so observant mind tomorrow. In which case at 2:15pm watch out: the Chairsatan may just pull the punchbowl away as the Hawkish dissent mounts... if only until the market has a downtick of course, which will threaten to destroy the ever flimsier hollow house of ponzi cards, or something, and the chief fireman comes scrambling back with the firehose spraying trillion dollar bills.
From JPM:
We expect a relatively uneventful outcome following tomorrow's FOMC meeting. We do not expect any balance sheet actions, nor do we anticipate any strong signalling that such actions are likely to occur at a subsequent meeting. Because tomorrow's meeting is a one-day meeting there will be no new economic projections or funds rate projections, nor will there be a post-meeting press conference. To the extent there is any news it is likely to come from changes in the wording of the FOMC statement. We believe there will be only a few minor tweaks to the statement. Perhaps the most significant is a change to the wording of the inflation discussion, to acknowledge that headline inflation has been pushed higher by energy prices. There could be some fairly small adjustments to the growth description: a little more cautious about consumer spending, and maybe a touch more upbeat on the labor market, while still noting that the unemployment rate remains elevated. We expect no change to the late 2014 rate guidance. Lacker dissented at the last meeting and will probably do so again tomorrow. A case could be made that Williams will cast a dovish dissent, or even Raskin or Tarullo for that matter, though we think it's more likely that we see no dovish dissents tomorrow.
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Can you feel it coming?
Can you smell the spice? Central banker wormsign!
I smell shit and cheap booze. Reminds me of the homeless guy by the corner store.
Yeah, bernanke shit in the puch bowl.
nope, CenGangs are the Harkonens . We need some Muad'Dib's action to take them out.
excuse my english
FOR SHAI HALUD!!!
Sorry... I meant the Bernank...
I'm looking for the shit hawks but all I see are shit doves circling the Fiat Ponzi.
speaking of shit they have a probem in Trenton NJ tonight they can't afford toilet paper for any public venues, city shutdown immenient due to health concerns......
Is it that easy to shut down governments? Just monkey wrench the toilet paper supply?
How hard can that be?
I'm surprised they are not using complaint letters sent to various government agencies in our corrupt state. We both know they are not taking those letters seriously..
Tony Mack is whack
awww I feel bad.. maybe we should have let them auction off the central jersey water supply after all.. now they have to go with out shit paper.
You haven't really lived until you had to shit in the woods.
TO: ItIn
"speaking of shit they have a probem in Trenton NJ tonight they can't afford toilet paper for any public venues, city shutdown immenient due to health concerns......"
NJ is missing a big buck branding opportunity here......they should pimp these haji style powder rooms as a paperless workplace....and call it the 'corslime can'
toilet paper substitute
large piece of paper . tear a hole in paper use the little torn piece to clean fingenails '
reuse large piece of paper tear new hole .. repeat
TRENTON, N.J. - March 12, 2012 (WPVI) -- It is crisis time in Trenton, where the city is literally running out of toilet paper.
"It's about one of the last boxes of toilet paper we have for the city buildings," said maintenance supervisor Paul Heater, pointing to a large box.
Supplies have dwindled down to almost nothing because City Council has failed to approve the mayor's $42,000 order for paper products.
The problem isn't toilet paper or paper towels. It's the $4,000 included for paper cups."Council wanted to know, 'What are you doing with $4000 worth of paper cups?'" said councilman George Muschal. "They got caught. We wanted to know what you're going to do with them and when they failed to give us an answer we denied their approval."
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=8577954
"Council wanted to know, 'What are you doing with $4000 worth of paper cups?'" said councilman George Muschal. "They got caught. We wanted to know what you're going to do with them and when they failed to give us an answer we denied their approval."
LOL, some state bureaucrat was probably going to sell them for a discount on the taxpayer's dime.
Ben merely views the market as a donkey, and is perfectly willing to use the stick of a little deflation in order to justify getting out the inflation carrot again.
Ben has been dangling his carrot alright. It's been accompanied with lots of lube.
My understanding is that there are massive inflationary pressures up against massive deflationary pressures with a net result of some inflation. I like Jim Rickard's analogy of Ben thinking he's turning the thermostat up and down trying to make the room comfortable but it's really a nuclear reactor and if he tries to fuck with it, sooner or later it's going to blow!
Inflation? House prices are falling, oil's price is transitory, and it is tradition for gold to rise when the Fed needs to leverage it's reserves with "certificates".
Run them presses, boys!
The presses have been running full stop. He just won't say it until he sees fit.
It does seem like the Market is kept up by "Expectations".
It also seems like with the Greek "Deal" that a lot of Money was pumped in to hold the Market in place. Most without knowing the outcome would have sold but the Market ramped higher and higher on an unknown outcome.
Almost like Bernanke is a day trader, watching every tick of the Market and the first sign of weakness he hits the print button.
Nice of Jip'M to guess what they know is going to happen tomorrow and fill us all in.
QE has been pushed back further and further with each positive piece of data lately. The algo's don't seem to be payng attention. I don't see why tomorrow should be any different.
QE "3" is being saved for when Italy and Spain need trillion dollar bailouts and the IMF needs the skin of the American taxpayer to pay the bill. It will be your patriotic duty to save Europe, American.
We would have to actually stop doing QE 1 before we can start some new increment of QE. Not really sure how anyone can possibly miss the fact that the Fed never stopped buying Treasuries and asorted other crap debt at any point during the last 3.5 years.
And besides, did you already forget about QE 2.5, QE lite, the Fed swap lines to Europe, and everything else? Do you actually need to hear the number 3 like some TV trained dog? Just buy gold and run. We are on 6 at least.
Thanx Quinvarius. Sometimes I feel reading the language in some articles here that I'm watching CNBC.
"Hawks". The Fed has hawks? Since when?
"Unemployment" going to be over "9%"?
"QE3"?
When can we start calling things like they are, or would it just confuse too many people who are used to the Orwellian MSM-speak.
As a plain speaker and financial non-guru, it's the MSM that confuses me. Funny thing, the people I find clearest, most logical, and easiest to understand are the gold investors.
Bernank's living Greenspan's conundrum...swim in ZIRP or drown anyway.
I thought the Hawks were recently replaced through attrittion by mostly doves. Not yet, or not enough?
This is the classic " Tug of War", scenario. I wonders who's ass will catch on fire first?
If the Fed eases, the ponzi money will add to already ( non- participatory) balance sheets. It will cause inflation to go parabolic.
They(FED) could by MBS, but the banks won't lend. If the housing market is so great, then why are rents so high?
I listened to some idiot say that lack of U.S. crude demand was due to a more efficient economy! If the economy is so efficient, then why would we be adding jobs? ANSWER: we aren't! I also listened to some tool on CNBS suggest that the part time jobs that were added would turn into full time jobs! At least he acknowledged they were part time!
What is a cartoon lover to do? Back to Bennie Hill and South Park!
"They took 'ur jobs!"
"They took 'ur JOBS!"
"Rahr-jah RAWR!"
You can only hide it so long.
Wasn't the 3rd year of ZIRP supposed to be 17-18% inflation (2012) and wasnt the 4th year 38% (2013)??
Just like all of "jobs" we're adding are $12-15/hr no benefits meanwhile the percetion is they are $50k/yr jobs.
If the jobs added are below the average per capita you need many more to break even. You need 1.6x as many jobs at 31k as you do at ~50k.
Reminds me of a book I read once, "how to lie with statistics"
5 out of 4 people use statistics incorrectly.
Probably a little higher if you consider bankers and politicians.
The Fed will print. However, they are in need of some political cover to fire off the next round before the election cycle window closes by mid-summer. Hence, there must be a sufficiently meaningful correction, and a complementary reduction in oil prices to put a deflationary scare into market participants so that they will come begging for salvation. This is already scripted, and the game continues......
If Fed mentions inflation in the red-line tomorrow and we get some "shocking" bank stress test results on Thursday, the punchbowl may actually (finally) be taken away...in the short term.
The Fed will make sure the stress tests results are just fine....It's all Bullshit!
Even if inflation is at 10%..he can't raise rates....it will bankrupt the so called budget .....he will just print...you guys are all waiting on a QE....by name only...he is printing now...he will print tomorrow..he has too...at least now he has his buddies in Europe doing the same thing...Japan always was...and England has started too....one year from now there will be several trillion more fiats in the system....what we need to watch is the outsiders pulling their chips out of the game and walking right now...but soon they will be running to the cashier to cash them in....and I think gold and oil is what they will buy....
And he will claim that 10% inflation is a temporary spike and acceptable over the long term, given that unemployment remains elevated. Sadly, the central banks have pumped so much money into the system, that once people do start spending again, the real hardcore (hyper)inflation won't be controllable.
"Sadly, the central banks have pumped so much money into the system, that once people do start spending again, the real hardcore (hyper)inflation won't be controllable."
Yep, I wonder if anyone in government understands this. I do think they may be trying to keep the money in the top 1% hands to delay the inevitable.
here's what he's really gonna claim about "what you think you're seeing" but in fact "are not":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc0tFCbs1tE&feature=player_detailpage
deleted
Fuck the charlatan.
Ben has to get Obama reelected, otherwise he is back to Princeton to live off the proceeds of students' loans.
If the Bernank's money printing gets Obama re-elected this country deserves Obama and the Bernank.
Actually Ben was appointed by Bush...a republican
Ben was appointed by the Rothchilds, our obedient little puppets were just following orders.
The FED doesn't and won't admit jack shit.
Get real.
When we had Peak US Economy, circa 1945-1971, no one but a handful of grifters, gamblers, shysters, and geniuses gave a rats ass about the market.
What's funny is when someone is finally called in to clean up Ben's catastrophic mess the greatest and swiftest crash of all time will ensue.
Unless we can get the PIIGS and the BRICS and maybe Germany and Russia to bomb the sh*t out of one another, while at the same time, leaving the 'ol USA completely alone. Maybe Taiwan, too.
Then we can be exporters to the world with no competition for thirty years or so again, while the rest of the world pulls itself out of the bronze age again.
Its stagflation, soon to become hyperstagflation
What happened to the forex volume? I got vapors...
All waiting on Ben?
It's all about the Benjamin (Shalom Bernanke).
How many times do they get to play the "oh we're gonna fight inflation" card before the market numbs to that BS, so far it works on the sheeple investment community every time.
The so called "FED" will admit nothing but their shaman type of delusion
Just curious, what would the world look like if the Fed went 100% monetization financing all the needs and obligations of the federal government with ever more worthless Federal Reserve Notes, Congress suspends the tax code (why bother) with "free" Fed "money." The resulting collapse creates a new barter/hard asset economic structure? Painful economic reset.
According to MMT types it will look great, apparenty we all ride happily into the sunset with lots of cool stuff and there will never be a collapse.
We can drop the bond market too- woohoo!
Hey Sarge - Read 'When Money Dies', a painstaking history of the hyperinflation caused by the Reichbank doing just that...
(Hint: It did NOT end well.)
The scenario you suggest is exactly what MMTers want implemented in order to "save" the economy.
In an MMT world, one need not be concerned with trivial things like dwindling energy sources or running out of food. So long as you can print, they say, it doesn't matter, and all will be glorious.
Transitory will be the word of the day. Concerns in the Mideast...but slowing econs in eu and china. Nothing to see here...move along.
I said two weeks ago that toilet paper was a viable commodity. Thank God it's light enough. The energy costs to haul it will only be up about 15%, as the cost of the fuel will probably offset the weight. Catch 22. TP/Roll vs. Diesel/Gal vs. Miles/Trip. There's a formula out there for this, I just know there is. It's lighter than gold and silver. And you can trade it for same. Someday Martha, I'm going to be rich too. Wait.... is this considered insider info. Crap.
Good info from ilovefreedom about jobs and $ paid and mostly part time work. Statistics are in the eye of the beholder. If they don't report any inflation because of the defl/infl ratio (stagflation) they really are a bunch of manipulative liars. And who ever said the ditti about Hawks and the ponzi.... bravo. Not that I'm really qulified to say. But it sounds good to me.
Ya know Tyler, if the reports come out tomorrow and there is no news, the charts can't be manipulated that much. You guys keep at it. You and some of the fellas here know the numbers better than anybody. Watch what they can do to fudge. Seems this group is the only real economic actuary at the guard post. I sometimes wonder if the public really gives a F....!
(Way) out in the country, toilet paper is called "Mountain Money".
Or you could try this:
http://www.amazon.com/Money-Toilet-Roll-Dollar-Paper/dp/B002L6EKH0
Isnt it amazing how people hang on every word that comes out of a liars mouth?
Inflation?? I saw CNBC and they said it's all under control. LIESman even scoffed at the notion Chairsatan may be wrong.
when Ben falls on his sword , they will admit the gig is up, but not a moment sooner
Bastard people.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-take-propaganda-schoolroom-will-teach-...
If, and I mean IF good ol' Ben acknowledges energy inflation he will not correlate it to CTRL+P. It will be evil speculators exploiting fears about Iran...
How the 2% inflation plan is spun as growth.
http://www.progressivehistorians.com/2007/11/bill-clintons-role-in-mortgage-crisis.html
10 to 1 gold gets slammed tomorrow by maybe $50.
"The American Institute for Economic Research developed the Everyday Price Index (EPI) to address the widespread perception that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not reflect the day-to-day experience of Americans." This removes big-ticket items and concentrates on things that we actually spend money on every single day (like, say, food and energy). The EPI is 8% vs the CPI, which is an 'acceptable' 3.1%. I wonder if this little factoid will be addressed tomorrow.
http://www.aier.org/article/7557-epi-reflects-basic-economic-change
The global ponzi starts to unravel.....
SCOREBOARD!
Dow futes creeping toward 13K tonight. I say 13.1K by 2 pm. Good news from Buck Frenankie finallly gets it over the 13K hump for good. Bad news and it drops to................13K !!!
Bernanke's description of self.... iiDIOT
Why does anyone care what these lying fucks say at their meetings?
These meetings are nothing more than propaganda sessions where they spew lies to try and convince the public (and themselves) that the money printing campaign will all turn out ok.
Read this if you'd like to learn about what's coming and how to survive it.
http://www.amazon.com/Simple-Wealth-Mr-Andrew-Costello/dp/1463523017/ref
Perhaps the most significant is a change to the wording of the inflation discussion, to acknowledge that headline inflation has been pushed higher by energy prices.
So JPM doesn't understand what inflation is either.
Inflation isn't "pushed higher" by rising prices, nor "pushed lower" by falling prices.
Price changes don't determine inflation. It's the other way around. Inflation determines price changes.
Energy prices are higher because of inflation. Inflation is what pushes energy prices higher. Along with grocery prices and all other prices ...except housing prices of course, which suffer from an overpowering negative factor called market collapse.
Of course JPM knows these things. They know inflation is running 10% - 12%, and energy prices are responding accordingly, along with grocery prices, etc.
After all, someone has to keep printing money and buying $150 billion of new treasuries each month.
Just because it doesn't have a specific name like "QE", and it's not mentioned on TV news, doesn't mean it isn't happening.
sell before the fomc meeting and buy back afterwards.
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/
OT: US brings new trade case against China
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gZkvcWw7lvXurQU3c74l_7...
What time is the meeting, 2:15 Eastern?
Sorry, I know this is off topic, but there are no current war updates under which I can post this.
This is the reason America is in so much trouble: I was reading Yahoo board comments under a story about the soldier that killed the Afghanis. You would not believe the inurred, bloodthirsty, bigoted, rationalizing nature of these comments. They could only be categorized under "neanderthal". Here is just ONE example of the "brilliance" at Yahoo's comment boards:
"Maaaayyybe, he just doesnt like goat smelling, pedofilic, Muzzie, Asscrackastani's???? I dont, and really dont give 2 rat turds that he killed 16 of them.... give the man a medal."
Thank God for ZH. I can't go back there....it makes my head explode!
This is why the assholes are trying to push back on gold.
???? ????? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ????? ???? 2012 ???? 2013 ???? ????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ????? ????? ???? ????? ????? 2012 ???????? ????? ????? ???????? ????? ????? 2012 ????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??? ????? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ?????