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JPM Explains Why The US Economy Is About To Hit A Brick Wall

Tyler Durden's picture




 

JPM's head economist Michael Feroli just joined the bandwagon of other Wall Streeters in cutting Q4 GDP, trimming his prior forecast of 3.5% to 3.0%. However, as this is backward looking, it is largely irrelevant if confirming what we already knew: that the economy was certainly not growing as fast as the market implied it was (yes, the manipulated market is not the economy, no matter how much the Fed would like that to be the case). A bigger question is what should one expect from the future. Yes - an in vitro future, isolated from the daily rumor mill of what may or may not happen to the French rating tomorrow or the day after. It is here that there is nothing good to expect: 'we think growth will downshift from 3.0% in 4Q11 to 2.0% in 1Q12. Looking beyond the first quarter, we expect a growing private domestic sector will contend with a fading drag from the external sector and a persistent drag from the public sector." Yet where JPM falls short, is its optimistic view on the private sector. As David Rosenberg showed yesterday, the ratio of negative to positive preannouncements just hit a multi-year high, with the primary culprit being the strong dollar. Unfortunately for Feroli's bullish angle, the private sector will not do all that well at all if the EURUSD remains in the mid 1.20s or falls further. In fact, corporate earnings will likely be trounced, which in combination with everything else that JPM lists out, correctly, could make the second half of 2012 a perfect storm for economic growth, an event which Obama's pre-electoral planners are all too aware of. What is the only possible recourse? Why more QE of course. The only unknown is "when."

From JP Morgan on the past:

The J.P. Morgan forecast now estimates that GDP growth last quarter was close to 3%. Although this is down a little from our earlier estimate of 3.5%, it would still be the first GDP number to have a “3” in front of the decimal since the second quarter of 2010. A substantial part of the growth seen last quarter owes to firms building inventories after being very cautious about stockbuilding in 3Q, and we anticipate inventory-building accounted for about 1.3%-pts of the 4Q growth. In part because that onetime lift to growth will likely fade in the current quarter, we  anticipate that growth will downshift to around 2.0% in the first quarter of the year.

... and the future:

The fading of the lift from inventory rebuilding is one of a few reasons to believe growth this quarter will be slower than last quarter.

  • Retail gasoline prices were declining for much of the last few months of 2011. It does not appear that consumers will get a similar support from energy prices in early 2012.
  • Unseasonably warm weather at the end of the fourth quarter likely supported construction activity. The return to what, so far, appears to be somewhat more normal weather will remove this temporary stimulus.
  • Through November, exports have held in fairly well. This is not unusual: there is often a lag of a few months between when the fundamentals of  foreign trade change and when the trade flows themselves change. We expect the global slowdown to lead to slower export growth this quarter.

For all these reasons, we think growth will downshift from 3.0% in 4Q11 to 2.0% in 1Q12. Looking beyond the first quarter, we expect a growing private domestic sector will contend with a fading drag from the external sector and a persistent drag from the public sector.

Fading of external drags US nominal exports declined in both October and November; back-to-back declines in exports are relatively rare. Nonetheless, real export volumes have held up better, and through the three months ending in November real exports have increased at a 5.3% annual rate. Historically, global growth developments tend to be reflected in export performance with about a one-quarter lag. The J.P. Morgan global growth forecast (weighting countries by their trade shares with the US) bottoms in 4Q11 at 1.0%, and thus we see 1Q12 as the toughest quarter for US exporters. We anticipate that US growth will firm some as the year progresses, as the drag from net exports slowly dissipates. The J.P. Morgan forecast for US-trade weighted global growth projects an acceleration in growth among US trading partners from 1.0% in 4Q11 to 3.2% in 4Q12. Much of this acceleration is expected to occur in emerging markets, where stimulative policy actions are anticipated to boost growth. As this occurs, US exports should improve over the course of the year. [ZH: Best of luck of this happening with a soaring USD]

 

Persistence of internal drags

External developments should be a drag on the US economy in 2012, but a drag that fades over the course of the year. Another sector that should be a drag is government, though we expect that drag to persist throughout 2012. The fading of federal stimulus spending probably shaved off about 1/4%- to 1/2%-pt from growth last year, and we expect it will subtract about a similar amount in 2012.

 

Outside of stimulus-related spending, federal outlays should also be a drag. The winding down of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan should lead to an outright decline in defense spending. According to OMB estimates, after expanding by 0.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2011, defense outlays should decline by 0.4% of GDP in FY2012, the largest such contraction since the end of the Vietnam War in the early 1970s. Some of this contraction will not be manifest in the domestic economy: for example, reduced purchases from vendors in the theaters of operations have no  implication for US GDP. Even so, gauging from the NIPA data on foreign defense transactions, most—perhaps threefourths— of the decline in defense spending will be reflected in reduced purchases of US goods and services. Some of this drag may already be evident in 4Q11, as monthly data suggest a sizable pullback in defense spending.

 

While the federal fiscal thrust has gone from supporting the economy in 2009 to exerting a modest drag on it since 2009, state and local governments have been a steady drag on the economy since 2008. Given the large number of states and localities there is greater uncertainty gauging the future direction of fiscal thrust at this level of government. One data source, the Fiscal Survey of States conducted bythe National Association of State Budget Officers, points to spending growth in 2012 about in line with or a little slower than in 2011. This survey hasn’t always lined up with the spending patterns subsequently seen in the data, but it is at least indicative that the state and local government drag in 2012 may be in the same ballpark as in 2011.

 

Year to end with a bang

 

The expansion in domestic private activity against a backdrop of a fading external drag and a persistent public drag should produce a gradually accelerating pattern of growth. The end of the year, however, promises to deliver a serious wallop of policy uncertainty that could serve to slow growth. There are three major  fiscal policy issues set for the end of this year:

 

  • The automatic federal budget cuts (sequestration) of around $100 billion per year that kick in at the beginning of 2012. These cuts stem from the failure of the Supercommittee to reach an agreement late last year.
  • The expiration of the payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment benefits. We assume that these two measures, which are set to expire at the end of February, will be extended through the entire year. The fiscal hit here adds up to around $150 billion.
  • Finally, the Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire at the end of this year. On an accrual basis these are worth about $250 billion per year.

All in, current law has about $500 billion of fiscal tightening that will occur in January 2013. Current law will undoubtedly be changed, as no party wants to see that much tightening in that short a period. However, how current law is changed is extremely uncertain, and that uncertainty could restrain activity toward the end of the year.

 

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Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:28 | 2062938 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and I thought the US didn't build brick walls.... just cardboard walls and seasand....

SEE!!! EVEN I LEARN NEW STUFF EVERY DAY!!!

 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:55 | 2063063 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Cartman for President!!!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 08:30 | 2064398 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Jamie Dimon for President

...they are afterall all, without exception, wrecking balls of society

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:34 | 2062974 HarryM
HarryM's picture

I wouldn't be surprised to see the board go green before the end of the day

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:40 | 2062994 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Only need 7 more points.  I'm sure Harry will buy it.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:06 | 2063114 HarryM
HarryM's picture

I didn't - but this market doesn't give up shit , you have a better chance bumming a fiver off Donald Trump than on a bear bet these days.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:52 | 2063029 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Market manipulation is great for controlling the avg American Neandersheeple. Let them drive home hearing 'the stock markets were up' and they can have a nice carefree weekend eating chips and wings and drinking beer instead of hanging banksters. 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:01 | 2063092 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

I don't think so, many average American 'sheeple' have online brokerage accounts and short the market, LOL. Stock market manipulation is probably one of the biggest reasons for Ron Paul support.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:09 | 2063116 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No, the avg american sheeple does not sit around shorting stocks, thats nothing but a myth. They have 401K's and pensions, and thats ALL this is about, keeping the 401K Bathrobe Brigades placated. For now. Until 1 morning when they get MF Global'd.

'Shorting stocks', lol.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 19:16 | 2063558 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Talked to garbage man who short stocks, local real estate broker, and teacher. Seems pretty average.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:16 | 2063160 The Real Fake E...
The Real Fake Economy's picture

average american shorting stocks?  wtf are you smoking?  maybe the average manhattanite.  outside of money-chasing manhattan, wasp-y (becoming heavily Indian) Greenwich and other suburbs in the area, Americans aren't shorting shit.  Except maybe taking short shits between working long shifts.  

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:40 | 2063266 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Damn right, it takes a shitload of money to 'short stocks', no avg guy with an Etrade account is able to do much other than buy a few puts. The avg american is taking a shorter break between shifts, thats about it.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 19:20 | 2063560 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Shitload of money? Can buy inverse etf, it's not a shitload of money and a lot of 'average' lost their savings last year shorting stocks. Maybe you think you're a special sheep with special sheep insights in the market, but trading has become mainstream.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 22:38 | 2063967 The Beam
The Beam's picture

1st, the Ron Paul support is just from people being tired of being fucked.

2nd The average person actually doesn't have online brokerage accounts. And even those accounts, the majority do not short.

Just curious...where do you get your analysis from?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2064867 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Just talking from my own impression. And surprised in casual converstaion how many people changed to have their own brokerage account and lost money because thought market will go down. Mad that manipulations protect insiders. So, yes, support Ron Paul because tired of being fucked.

Doesn't it make sense? In 2008, people in the market lose a lot of money, so they stop paying their broker's fees to lose money and take charge for themself like they watch Cramer show you. It's not too difficult to figure out about shorting stocks. And you think the brokerage ads on TV for cheap trading accounts are for hedge funds?

I'd like to see some kind of official analysis because suspect it's bigger than you think.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:35 | 2062984 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

New construction "homes" are made from a plywood/diarrhea combination however, prisons are all concrete. One big prison for the 'free'.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:27 | 2062944 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

What growth? You mean the cancerous debt?

Let me just repeat from the previous Barclays forecast: Are these fucking people serious?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:34 | 2062977 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

- growing poverty

- growing fascisme

- growing foodstamp usage

- growing domestic insecurity

- growing instability

- growing public debts

- growing numbers of  type 2 diabetics

....

 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 13:02 | 2066314 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

- shortage lube

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:34 | 2062980 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

National debt brain tumor growing at a robust pace!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:42 | 2063008 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

+1

If you were a woman, I'd marry you.

 

Seriously, I've been on tenterhooks about the "Imminent" collapse of the USD, (Private and Central) Banks, Insurance, and civilisation (What civilisation?) as we know it for a good number of years. Now that I've prepared and cogitated on the way things are, reconciled myself with every possible outcome imaginable, as well as the possibility that I haven't imagined every possible outcome, I find myself relatively content with ANY bad news that comes along. Panic and bad news is the new norm these days, as well as over-reaction on the markets at the merest whisper of good news. 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:02 | 2063052 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

107% Debt/GDP ratio....oh nevermind all that, we forecast GROWTH! Plus QE3 rumors to save us!

LOL I guess they really do think we're ALL retarded!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 01:34 | 2064208 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf's been looking for another gig...:>D

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:28 | 2062948 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

More like nuclear expolsion Dimon and friends.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:28 | 2062951 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Here's Peter Schiff on why the US is in worse shape than Europe.

http://www.thesilverjournal.com/713/

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:33 | 2062973 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Real soon none of it will matter as we're plunged into WW3. Accounts will be seized due to 1 mornings 'national state of emergency', and all equity holders can get in line behind MF Global account holders and wait to be reimbursed never.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:39 | 2062993 sabra1
sabra1's picture

and don't forget, what gold in your safety deposit box?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:41 | 2063003 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Safety deposit box? I don't think so. They lock the doors on the bank and you might as well have MF Global holding your gold.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:59 | 2063085 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

first place they [gov't] take possession

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:54 | 2063344 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

I will let goverment  take possession of some of my lead.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:28 | 2062954 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Yeah, but the President will streamline the government just like he streamlined GM, Chrysler and the budget. 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:43 | 2063002 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

The people have two choices now. Either Bain'ing or Streamlining. You better pick one. Either way we are fucked.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:22 | 2063191 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

but - i thought gm, chrysler and the budget have been great 'recovery' success?

 

 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:28 | 2062956 Roy T
Roy T's picture

 

Ok, now it is priced in.  Move along, nothing to see here.  Rally on.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:30 | 2062961 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

About to hit a brick wall? They're a little late to the game aren't they? Nothing like top quality research.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:42 | 2063009 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyll really report on the state of the wreckage and carnage AFTER the airliner has slammed into the mountainside. Right now, its all is well....nevermind the 45 degree downward angle....still smooth sailing and theres more drinks in the stewardess cart.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:51 | 2063040 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Srsly.  I could of wrote this on the shitter.

Plus, people don't really realize how LUCKY we have had it so far this winter.  Hardly any snow or prolonged cold.  Really inflated the retail numbers a bit since ppl had more cash to spend.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:57 | 2063061 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

"We're going into a recession damn it!" - John Taylor

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-taylor-we-are-going-recession-damn-it

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:33 | 2062971 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Why does he keep offering me credit cards then?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:42 | 2063005 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Because they like to charge you and I 20% on rates that should be more like 5%. Perfect credit and I haven't touched those cards in years.

 

20% give me a break Dimon.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:43 | 2063014 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'You and I'? Im sure as hell not paying a damn bit of interest on any credit card....havent in many years.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:51 | 2063041 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I refuse to participate. Cash purchases for everything and currency exchanges for precious metals.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:25 | 2063200 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Yes, But If i am dead, How would i pay it back?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 19:15 | 2063555 xela2200
xela2200's picture

The government gets less than 3%, and they are broke.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:33 | 2062972 youngman
youngman's picture

This should be good for Obamas re-election chances...its a shoe in with 20% unemployment and negative GDP.......lol...this guy is good...

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:35 | 2062982 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

11h54m...

there's still time to fix this.....

 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:39 | 2062989 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Not in a way that would benefit you and I and that doesn't count.  Of course that's the entire problem.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:37 | 2062986 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Growing alcoholics. Cheers!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:39 | 2062990 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'More QE of course'...

Sorry, their paltry $600 billion rumor would cause markets to roll over like a harpooned whale. At least a $2 trillion number would be needed, just to keep the bowling balls in the air, and in an election year thats just not going to happen, sorry.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:43 | 2063010 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'm so fucking tired of hearing about QE3. We've been talking about it for almost a year now. Fuck it already.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:45 | 2063020 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its such a JOKE! They started controlling markets 12 months ago with murmurings of QE3 whenever things started looking weak....how much has been 'priced in' to this point, hell it must be $2 trillion minimum!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:52 | 2063047 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

No doubt. I think QE4 and 5 have already been priced in. Damn, it's hard being a realist and trying to make money in this market. Damn near impossible. I can't bring myself to play it long, and my puts have been getting killed. What the hell, man.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:27 | 2063214 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

When you see it, you'll shit bricks!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:42 | 2063288 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When I see what?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:40 | 2062998 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

You say the economy is about to hit a wall, I say buy the freaking dip.  QE is here to save the stock market. 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:41 | 2063000 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So the eCONomy is going to take off then.  What did I say the morning?  Look, the 3:00 PM vapor melt-up is back.  Boy, trading has gotten a lot easier lately.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:52 | 2063033 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Who in their right mind* would go long into a 3 day weekend with Europe broken again?

* I realize "right mind" is a HUGE assumption

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:53 | 2063050 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Apparently, you are not familiar with sarcasm are you?  Just sold, will sit on cash this weekend.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:57 | 2063078 bdc63
bdc63's picture

not being critical of you ... being critical of all the jokers that are trying to drive the market into positive territory ... and they still have 5 minutes to pull it off ...

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:43 | 2063017 onebir
onebir's picture

Hussman reckons recession's more or less baked-in for the US:

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc120109.htm

 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:45 | 2063021 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

"What is the only possible recourse?" WAR OF COURSE. 30% fall in the Iranian currency isn't for fear of a 10 year and running embargo...it's a bank run by rich Iranians hitting the bid.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:52 | 2063045 youngman
youngman's picture

Mcmonkey was down here in South America solidifying his other socialist friends for some reason.....I think he is getting ready for some military action..he will start it...its in his blood to remove the Jews off the world map....he has said it before...he wants these outliers to help with the propaganda when he does take the action..or to cause some problems to keep us busy...funny thing he was flying in teh Iran private jet..it was an old Boeing 707...

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:56 | 2063067 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

He wants the Zionist Israel gone, and I agree with him, its a cancer on the earth.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:50 | 2063035 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

This must be the preview....to the main feature

Brick walls...."The Humpty Dance"

When the US tax/bagholder gets the "Barbed Treble" inserted in their gobs regarding picking up JPM's "Derivative Debt Tab" (DDT)

Then comes the "Sledge-O-Matic" and their heads get exploded like a Gallagher stage prop when their IRA's and 401k's get wiped out overnight.

Fiction and fantasy have a funny way of turning into reality in this new millenium global economy/ponzi

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:51 | 2063038 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Jesus Christ!

The day after QE3 ends ZH will be calling for QE4. Why makes ZH calling for QE good and the banks calling for QE bad? It's still bullshit monetary policy but you know deep down Sprott and co. are dying for it to help the LT silver bull case.

ZH rocks but sometimes it's just as bad as a sell side brokerage firm.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:53 | 2063053 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You are only half right: we would call for QE4... but QE3 will never end.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:01 | 2063093 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There you go Tyler...screwing things up. We jump out to set the record straight and you throw out a curve ball.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:05 | 2063113 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I think this I what sheep dog one is talking about below but my thought is that QE3 IS going on right now! They dont want PMs up so the do this stealth QE like today. How the fuck is the market only down 6 points? They won't announce it, it will just happen. So sorry for the outburst, I just hate calls/predictions for QE. A QE announcement will send the metals up but w/o the announcement they can punch stocks higher and say mission accomplished.

And no I'm not Robo, I posted in the Berlusconi thread a while ago I'm shorting the pop in XLK. Waiting for it to grab but it seems to be weakening still. I took a pussy footing position in MON earlier in the week. And I added 5 maple leafs to the stash last week. That's what I'm doing now, not yesterday so I don't think I'm like Robo in that regard.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:07 | 2063124 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure theyre shoveling in money as fast as they can to keep things afloat, they may not have named it 'QE3', but its ongoing daily, its obvious.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:10 | 2063136 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Yep, I agree.

I should add the MON is a long just in case peeps try to call me a robo impersonator.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:26 | 2063212 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Tyler, can you give us a hand with this stealth QE idea? I for one think it has alot of potential. If it is happening, it must leave some kind of paper trail that you can expose. The best thing about it is that it would tie the GOP in knots if they knew. Hmm, it keeps the economy limping along, that's bad for re-election chances, but it keeps our legalized insider traded portfolios nice and fat, and that's good. What to do, what to do?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 11:38 | 2064512 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I think there is a reason you didn't get an answer.

 

"If it is happening, it must leave some kind of paper trail that you can expose."

Ben Bernanke won't admit it and unless enough arm twisting occurs no one will be taking a look at the Fed's balance sheet (where the paper trail occurs). So the lies keep going unchecked.

"The best thing about it is that it would tie the GOP in knots if they knew. Hmm, it keeps the economy limping along, that's bad for re-election chances, but it keeps our legalized insider traded portfolios nice and fat, and that's good. "

The GOP doesn't want to see another stock market collapse. There are only a few real conservatives left in the party, the rest are Neo-Conservative Liberals. Look at Congress' approval ratings, do you really think members of Congress want to be in office if the stock market collapses again. The only one who will call bullshit is Ron Paul and he is too busy running for President.


Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:15 | 2063157 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

qe3 is the reinvestment of what ever dribble they get on the current multi-trillion dollar portfolio of junk back into more junk.  it need not be so - they could give that money back to treasury to pay back.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 22:48 | 2063993 The Beam
The Beam's picture

QE3 will end, but that is why 4, 5 and possibly 6 will save us.

One is BOUND to work....isn't it? <---Sarcasm

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:54 | 2063058 bdc63
bdc63's picture

you must be new.  

they're not "calling for it", they're predicting it.  HUGE difference.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:56 | 2063073 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Been 'predicting' it for what, 12 months now?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:57 | 2063074 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Zero Hedge is not calling for QE. they never have. They are just stating the inevitable.  Are you Robo in disguise?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 16:57 | 2063077 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cvldobd they cant deliver QE, and we know this.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:00 | 2063087 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh but nevermind me! Please DO deliver a $3 trillion QE! Should be fun having new oil floor at $120's and gold well over $2,000....yea theyll do that, sure.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:10 | 2063135 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

seriously, i hope all you guys have deep pockets cuz you've all been shorting for 200 S&P points.   maybe you got the euro short right, who knows.   but for whatever reason stocks are on a bull run and showing all the tendencies of a bull market, especially given the fact that it's done nothing but go higher despite non stop bad news.  

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:21 | 2063185 Outlaw Of The W...
Outlaw Of The Wasteland's picture

no one trades directionally anymore.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:22 | 2063180 Outlaw Of The W...
Outlaw Of The Wasteland's picture

worse is better, my friends.  Endure the lies.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:30 | 2063210 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

So..... jpm "Brotherhood of the Bell" speaks.Not sure I care.

Where is Brother Corzine ? thats what I want to know. Golfing with brother Barry ? A lot of Washington people going to Chicago also.Head gangster goes to Washington and the little mafia players go back to Chicago strange yet amusing.Maybe they find Rahm attractive in the shower.

Interesting people BP the largest Obummer funder also put Rahm up in a place to live and paid his rent for at least two years.Bp and their flesh eating self replicating synthia  all over the Gulf of Mexico.

Oh well may the theatre continue...and jpm.... lick balls...Oh you do good for you!

Cheers

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:28 | 2063218 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Amazing how the stock ponzi scheme (a.k.a. stock market) has been so resilient considering the bad news over the last few days.  I imagine an official statement from the Fed is forthcoming re. more easing.  I think we all know the Fed doesn't know what else to do to try and keep the patient alive.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:35 | 2063245 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

They are well schooled on how to destroy it

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:34 | 2063242 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Well when the Euro goes tits up won't all the scared Europeans then park whats left of their stuff into dollar denominated assets? I can almost hear Kudlow saying "King Dollar" again. Then, THEN when our debt debtonates, is when the big party starts. This has got to be a few years away still.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:36 | 2063250 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. lender by assets, said in September it plans to eliminate 30,000 jobs in the next few years. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan said the cuts are part of an effort to bolster profit and the company’s stock. Citigroup Inc., the third-biggest U.S. lender by assets, plans to cut about 4,500 jobs in coming quarters to trim costs amid slumping revenue, CEO Vikram Pandit announced last month.

MetLife Inc. (MET), the largest U.S. life insurer, said it will shut its home mortgage-origination operation, costing the company at least $90 million and most of the 4,300 employees at the unit their jobs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/metlife-most-of-4-300-at-mortga...

I predict a Whopper QE3 +4 in election year with numbers like these.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:46 | 2063306 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Why are you still calling these propagandists economists?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:49 | 2063319 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

What to you mean? We're about to get another 1.2T infusion! No wait, the banksters are about to get another 1.2T Infusion.

Back to sleep. DWS will be on shortly.

P.s Fuck heads Obama/Holder are going after Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 01:47 | 2064226 StychoKiller
Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:52 | 2063332 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Fucking liberal Democrats love illigal ailiens in Amerika! Eric Holder bombed Oklahoma City on April 19, 1995. Lets look at that again. Ok?

The real terrorists are in the WH and DOJ!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 18:12 | 2063411 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Correction!

 JPM Explains Why The Wall Street Banksters  Are About To Hit A Brick Wall

 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 18:13 | 2063416 non_anon
non_anon's picture

ha ha, JPM looking through the rearview mirror at the brick wall we crashed through long ago and not looking at the cliff ahead

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 18:13 | 2063418 gwar5
gwar5's picture

What JPM and Goldman Sachs want, they get. Have to say I was a little surprised that the FED seemed skiddish about doing overt QEs after they were publicly unmasked as the global inflator-in-chief and went to stealthy QE gimmicks. The Starhip Trooper Smart Bug was afraid.

 

 

 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 18:55 | 2063506 kk1532003
kk1532003's picture

Fuck JPM, Fuck Goldman, and fuck every other lying banker SOB.  Their names are remembered...their dues will soon be paid...

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 14:45 | 2066601 resurger
resurger's picture

Amen! you know that Draghi is "Fuckusing on fucksuing you (us)"

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 22:02 | 2063888 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Funny, I was called by two network producers and NO ONE was willing to show a graph of the REAL employment situation in the US. They wanted to go with the standard BLS BS. THIS CHART MUCH BETTER SHOWS WHY WE ARE HITTING A BRICK WALL.

2.8 Million Jobs Lost Since End of Recession (Is This An Economic Recovery?)

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/13/2-8-million-jobs-lost...

 

 

 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 01:55 | 2064232 EZYJET PILOT
EZYJET PILOT's picture

I am getting annoyed with this QE3 talk. Jim Willie nailed it a while back, like he said QE never stopped, I'm surprised ZH never printed his article. LTRO is QE3 or perhaps QE4. This economy will not crash despite the downgrades, they will keep plugging the shortfalls behind the scenes, putting plasters on the holes in the boat, yes you know the usual cliche. I really think the bastards have managed to distort reality, I believe it simply comes down to this, THERE WILL NOT BE A CRASH UNTIL THEY WANT ONE! It doesn't matter how bad things seem to be, the whole thing is a show, a movie, it doesn't make sense because its not supposed to, it stopped making sense in 1913 and then especially after 1971. We have got to stop analysing trends and graphs and listening to JPM spokespeople, they are all part of the illusion. God I'm getting tired if this.

 

Read this:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie113011.html

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!