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JPM Hikes Q4 GDP, But The Bad News Dominates
Reading just the first paragraph of Michael Feroli's note from this morning, one could be left with the impression that all is well, and the US has formally decoupled from anything and everything, especially reality. Alas, there are two other paragraphs, and both paint a bleak picture of the US economy if the current global autopilot persists. One thing is sure: decoupling is a myth for gullible children, and the longer the European recession lasts, and it will last long, as it will never be allowed to revert to fair value promptly by pulling off the band aid of three decades of cheap credit, and instead it will be bled to death using token austerity, rather than doing to right and very painful thing and cutting to the bone. And the longer the divergence persists, the more violent will be America's return to reality once the "lag" finally catches up with the trademarked mark to unicorn world created by America for America.
From JPM
We are revising up our projection of annualized real GDP growth in the fourth quarter from 3.0% to 3.5%. The revision mostly reflects surprisingly resilient news regarding net exports, as well as some fairly strong data on inventory-building. The news on domestic demand continues to point to domestic final sales growth of a little under 3%. If we are right that third quarter GDP growth will be revised down to 1.5% from the 2.0% currently reported, then second half growth will continue to average around 2.5%.
Looking forward, the forecast remains hostage to the uncertainty regarding developments in Washington. If Congress extends expiring payroll tax and unemployment compensation measures -- which seems likely, though not without some more of the usual antics -- then the current trend of growth around 2.5% could be sustained on into the first half of next year. If instead those measures expire then the subtraction from disposable personal income growth should pose a significant headwind to consumer spending growth. Our current 2012 forecast embeds current law -- that is, that the measures in question expire at year-end. We will revisit that assumption if and when the law is changed, which now appears to be next week at the earliest.
A larger uncertainty relates to external developments: Global growth is slowing and Europe is heading into recession. This backdrop has tempered some of the enthusiasm regarding the better numbers seen recently -- particularly on jobless claims. While the global slowdown is a drag on domestic growth, we believe the US economy should continue moving forward, provided Europe doesn't completely come unglued.
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detriple from reality as decouple doesn't quite cover all this smelly bs.
Muddle through..
lol
This is the African Veldt though...nothing survives long at all muddling around, things are either eating, or being eaten.
And we believe JPM why? Oh, that's right, because it fits our narrative now. Writer is full of crap.
it's off topic
Can some1 give me an idea how to get push notification from zerohedge in realtime ?
Iphone, ipad or android?
hey jamie! hell called! your tables ready! who's on your bankers' dead pool? well, who bastard?
"External Developments", why, I had not noticed.
What a crock of crap.
How come Feroli's reports on squatter's rent have stopped coming? Censored?
Hey JP Morgan go fuck yourself!
"...we believe the US economy should continue moving forward, provided Europe doesn't completely come unglued."
That would be your dose of hopium, right there. So, let's see, if Europe comes unglued, all bets are off; and, Europe is coming unglued more and more every day. Hmmm.
Ye since all is well here in 'america' of course, we'll be great as long as Europe doesnt screw us.
What a load of garbage....Jamie Dimon should be drawn and quartered.
No shit. Man, the world we live in today. I won't go into a rant, I have to get at least some work done today. I know I don't need to rant to you, anyway; preaching to the choir, to coin a phrase. It's good to know there are at least a few people with their eyes open. That's why I enjoy the comments so much. I know I'm not alone.
3.5%???to be revised to sub 1% in a few months I guess::))
Let's dig into some of the data that supports the the American GDP growth miracle:
unskilled, unemployed single mother with crack addiction gets approved for a new credit card....goes to Walmart and buys several pairs of shoes and new iPhone for her 13 year old girl (who has dropped out of school with a view to a career in the porn industry)...then takes the family on a cruise vacation they deserve after such a hard year.
maybe they will also buy themselves a new chevy after their cruise if their sub-prime loan gets approved.
A noble people we have become indeed.
As long as the US trade deficit is over $1T a year and our politicians believe that a "small" increase on the fed budget every year is okay...then we are rapidly moving towards increasing bond sales every month from the Fed until what is happening to Italy begins to happen to us...oh by the way, those that purchase those bonds may have difficulties buying because their own interest charges eat up too much of their "spare" cash...
Witness, the last gasp of a dying patient. Groupon and Zynga are proof that a new bubble of ANY kind is desperately being conjured out of thin air just to keep the growth myth going as long as possible. Trying to repeat the dot com bubble with social media (aka, nothing but a marketing ploy) is just plain stupid. Critical mass is here. Peak everything is here. Sustainability is not even an option anymore. Our financial system will die without growth. It was designed that way. Perpetual growth (exponential function) is just a fools dream that economists just won't let go of. It all went to hell the very moment folks accepted the label of 'consumer'. WTF happened to the 'producer'? Be prepared friends, and by preparing, I mean learning to live with less. Yeah, radical, right?
he wanted to say "green shoots"
but he got seasonally adjusted before he decoupled from the unicorn
Robo_T is more consistent than the morgue: "you better hope the chairSatan prints or gold will..." which i'm sure the shepherds watching their flocks' money by the dark of ZIRP night see as a shining star,...as they get the word that all the world is to be taxed, at the dawning of the NWO...
Fast forward to January:
We are revising our projection of annualized real GDP growth in the fourth quarter downward from 3.5% to 1.5%. The revision mostly reflects downward revision to retail sales figures, which were total hopium bullshit of the Retail Trade Association; the standard monthly upward revision of new unemployment claims by the BLS; the inability of Congress to get anything done except go on their Christmas break; and Europe coming unglued.
Cutting to the bone for fraud, when it won't change a damn thing? No amount of austerity will cure the fuckups caused by monetarism in service to the oligarchy.
There's always room to cut some bs out, and it should be, but what Europe needs is Glass-Steagall wipe of the fraud (with said idiocy being deemed illegal) and a write down of unpayable debt, followed by a physical economic expansion through a credit system.
Will they do that? They have about as much chance to do it as one of those magic pills for weight loss as seen on tv. But you still have to push for the right solutions, even if the banksters will never allow it. The people will take over, and it's better they have ideas that are true like our founding fathers, rather than be mobs like the french revolution with few real ideas.
Cutting to the bone achieves nothing, after the whole continent, and world has been fucked over by monetarism. Keynesian-ism and Austrian-ism, and ALL other forms of oligarchical control system known as ANY idiot school of monetarism, won't serve anybody but the oligarchy, let alone manage the collapse by forcing the majority of the pain on who deserves it while provide a pathway to a real physical economic recovery.
Austerity due to fraud is for suckers who believe some sort of bs dogma that has nothing to do with real economics. Monetarism isn't economics, it's control, which fools the plebes into thinking it's a valid economic ideology. It isn't. It never was. That's why the United States exists. Because people knew that, and got the fuck out of Europe to pursue that.
Impeach Obama
Glass-Steagall
Forgive my ignorance, but who exactly are we exporting to?
Cheer up, look at all the stuff you are exporting to Afghanistan, someone is making a buck!
It's really too bad that we can't decouple ourselves from the global economy entirely. America has more than enough resources to become economically self sufficent.
Instead, we're going to just have to go through Economic Collapse