JPM Max Pain At 6 Month Highs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While we can argue over which exact position Iksil and his crew had on, the widening in IG9 10Y spreads post-Dimon signals an unwind of epic proportions continues. It seems the mainstream media has grown tired of discussing skews, basis, curves, tranches, and tail-risk but for those who care about the reality that JPMorgan faces - we note that the credit index most closely tied to the CIO's office debacle continues to push wider. Today sees the spread at six-month wides (up a hulking 33% since Dimon's mea crapa). Perhaps this helps explain why JPM just can't get a bid (or hold onto one even after last week's ECB/Fed print rumors) as its stock's price hovers just in the red YTD (with a $32 handle).

 

Source: CMA

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Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:52 | 2476483 franzpick
franzpick's picture

The 'cup and handle' formation is the position of Jamie and his fatal drink before he does the 'socrates'.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:46 | 2476447 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Handle is also a descriptive term for a 1.75 bottle with a handle, as in "I picked up a handle of vodka, now let's party! Bitchez!"  

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:18 | 2476908 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

As in "BAC still has a 7 handle - Why?"

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:20 | 2476342 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Every Jamie cloud now comes with a Silver lining

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:24 | 2476364 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Now if somebody would sqeeze them in their naked silver shorts it would be funny to watch them squirm.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:48 | 2476458 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I have to give myself a +1 for the double entendre. ;->

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:26 | 2476371 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

How many unthinkable $trillions  "nominal" in derivatives in the JPM?  It is the big fat spider at the center of the derivatives web.  Counterparty risks?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:04 | 2476540 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Max Kaiser says JPM derivatives pile is now a tidy $90,000,000,000,000.00.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:26 | 2476374 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Ever since they trotted out Blythe "The Hedger" Masters to do PR things have turned sour.  She definitely needs to do more rounds on CNBS to fully drive this shit wagon JPM into the ground.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:28 | 2476381 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

TBTF's in survival mode - desparately want repeal of 'Gramm, Leach, Bliley Act' & 'CFMA' --- only way out is to handover spoiled-loot[?] to central planners?

regards, Obamacare's

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:29 | 2476387 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

JPM's pain becomes Fed Reserve Asset, then becomes pain to US Citizens.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:33 | 2476397 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

If they were still holding that trade, and they are not, else they would have had to declare the megalosses (say 20B)............  Not even JPM can bury that one in the backyard.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:34 | 2476404 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

This is nothing...just wait till everyone is taking delivery on their paper silver.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:35 | 2476407 Conman
Conman's picture

Well good thing JPM is backed by us hardworking americans right?

Lets go PPT save us today, i see glimmers of manipulation, lets jsut go full retard and turn this bitch green today.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:39 | 2476423 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The only green I see is silver and gold.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:49 | 2476456 Conman
Conman's picture

Dont underestimate the PPT. The daily afternoon ramp job about as sure as getting a std from a 20$ bj from a hooker.

"Stocks are off the lows" whenever you hear this a PPT member gets his wings.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 16:08 | 2477143 Chump
Chump's picture

There's a new paradigm at work.  The robots are selling the fucking spike now that everyone and his brother has been taught to believe in the magic of the PPT.

It's similar to QE.  Everyone knows what it is now and expects it, so it's not coming.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:35 | 2476409 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Just because you're a Savant it doesn't mean you're not an idiot...

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:36 | 2476416 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

Who ordered the code red?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:41 | 2476432 famousamos
famousamos's picture

so... i was just wondering with the recent Rothschild/Rockerfeller union... could they actually let JPM fail? or is that insane to think?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:46 | 2476446 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

JPM is part owner of fed.  In other words "they are they".  Here a best guess in terms of ownership of the privately held federal reserve.  These stocks should always be viewed with the perpsective that they "are" The Fed.


Best Guess Fed ownership:

 

The top 4 banks:  B of A, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup & Wells Fargo-Wachovia control roughly 54% of the stock of the Federal Reserve Bank.  The top 10 banks, including Goldman Sachs, HSBC and the Bank of New York control roughly 70% of the stock.

 

 

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:47 | 2476454 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Club members don't let other Club members fail.

Failing is for the Muppets.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:24 | 2476940 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Well, LTCM wasn't in the club, and Bear Stearns sure wasn't after not helping on the LTCM tear-apart, but Lehman? Wasn't Lehman in the Club?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:52 | 2476488 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Think of all of these entities as the "Goose that lays the golden egg." As long as the goose stays healthy, the eggs keep coming. As we see now though, they're all in their terminal stages, of which there is no escaping (as per Mises).

So, each entity faces a choice, do they kill it to their liking, or turn it into a zombie on fedgov life-support? In each case, the answer will be, whichever provides the most benefit to those holding the guns at the time.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:01 | 2476523 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Didn't Obomba disclose he has a few mill invested with JPM? If true, I smell a baaaailout coming.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:43 | 2476434 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Once again....

 

Nelson to JPM SHITHOLDERS...(CUZ THE MANAGEMENT WILL DO JUST FINE COME HELL OR HIGH WATER)

 

AH-HA!

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:44 | 2476436 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We really need some more renewed Fleeced Buyer Schadenfreude from Tyler.  Every Fallin Brick long is now losing money. 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:45 | 2476445 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The Management team at JPM feels just terrible about their mounting losses which must, of course, now be passed on to the Fed and the American Taxpayers.

The team is highly motivated and committed to making huge profits on their next bet in the Casino that old timers fondly refer to as the "Market".

JP Morgan, Capitalism, and Trust.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:46 | 2476449 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

"PILE ON THE RABBIT...PILE ON THE RABBIT!"

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:48 | 2476460 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Maybe if they sell even more Silver they don't own they can get their SP back up.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:51 | 2476474 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

AS MENTIONED HERE BEFORE EXPECTED LOSS AROUND 7BILLION USD HOWEVER IF THE INDEX CONTINUE DETERIORATING AT THE CURRENT RATE WE MAY BE TALKING SOMETHING IN THE ORDER OF 10+ BILLIONS USD

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:07 | 2476548 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I think you're a little low.

It has been shown that the share repurchase program would have to be halted if losses exceeded $30B.  Well, it has been halted.

Jim Willy also is on the record saying that over the next year(s), losses will be revealed to be in the $100's of Billions.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:52 | 2476487 spooz
spooz's picture

But wait, Hilary Kramer on Marketwatch says there are five reasons to buy JPM, including "$2 billion is not significant":

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-reasons-to-buy-jpmorgan-chase-2012-05-30

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:29 | 2476652 Matt
Matt's picture

It would be nice if everyone writing articles like that were required to disclose their positions, including their VWAP. It's all fine and dandy to go tell other people what they should do with their money, if you aren't doing it yourself.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:53 | 2476493 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Silver: $28 p/oz

JPM: $32 p/share

Now how silly is that? It's the Poster Boy for f*cked up. I mean, how many hundred trillion $ of derivative debt does silver hold on its books?

Take a picture for posterity. One has an unlimited future, the other is a walking dead thing

Confucius say: choose wisely glasshoppa, and buy with both hands

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:44 | 2476736 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Margin Stanley looking solid as well.

Golden Bull getting ready stomp some necks...

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:12 | 2476575 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

How do you eat a whale?

One bite at a time.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:12 | 2476577 Yohimbo
Yohimbo's picture

is it just me or does Dimon remind you of Q from star trek - (john de lancie)

http://www.rankopedia.com/CandidatePix/61003.gif

I think the roles are similar. 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:34 | 2476685 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Puts on JPM are the closest thing to a sure thing there is.  Plus, you're doing something for humanity. It gives the common Joe the ability to do some good in the world. Watching Jamie die like the wicked witch getting a bucket of water thrown on her, (I'd prefer throwing a bucket of shit and piss on Jamie), gives one a warm and fuzzy feeling.  I try and start my day by buying at least one or two July 34 puts onJPM in hopes that it helps ruin Jamies day. Plus I buy physical silver every week. Ha ha Jamie, fuck you...how do you like it bitch?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:57 | 2476804 sudzee
sudzee's picture

As demand and production of copper slows JPM silver short may have no out. Talk of JPM copper ETF may be how they are looking to offset real demand. Copper production down means byproduct silver down. Want to short JPM just buy a little more silver. The crunch is coming.  

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:39 | 2476715 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Is this going to affect my bonus?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:08 | 2476859 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

JPM will pull their advertising from any sport that involves "running".

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:08 | 2476860 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

The coming crash is almost palpable.  I bet the veins on Jamie's pea head are bulging.  I hope he gets destroyed.  He's such a sack of shit.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:38 | 2477006 NotAnAvgBeanCounter
NotAnAvgBeanCounter's picture

How poetic the 2nd most hated CEO's company is headed for the wood-chipper... maybe it really is time change the way things get traded

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 20:12 | 2477774 OC Money Man
OC Money Man's picture

Achilles Macris, J.P. Morgan’s CIO in their London office, used the bank’s access to cheap capital from the Federal Reserve to amass his OTC derivative gamble that high yield and sovereign debt interest rates would fall, after MF Global suffered a $1.2 billion loss on similar bets and was forced to file for bankruptcy last October 30th.

Morgan’s gamble became very profitable after December 21 when the European Central Bank (ECB) began making $640 billion of three year loans at 1% interest, referred to as “Long Term Refinancing Operations” (LTROs), available to the banks of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS). By the end of December, J.P. Morgan’s total derivative exposure was $70.2 trillion on just $1.8 trillion of bank assets, according to the U. S. Controller of the Currency.  Morgan is reported to have continued heavy derivative buying in January and February. Its profits soared again when the ECB announced LTRO2 as another $714 billion in three year low-interest loans to PIIGS banks.

The stock of J.P. Morgan vaulted from $29 per share in December 2011 to $45 a share in March 2012 as rumors swirled that Achilles Macris and his London team of 6 had already made $2-3 billion as high yield and sovereign debt interest rates continued to fall.  A jubilant Jamie Dimon announced that J.P. Morgan would increase its dividend and buy back $15 billion of its stock.

Everything seemed rainbows and unicorns for J.P. Morgan until France and Greece elected hardcore leftist candidates who want to abandon austerity spending cuts and increase social welfare spending. Interest rates on the PIIGS sovereign debt shot back up.  My estimate is that J.P. Morgan has suffered a $7-8 billion loss since March and are at a net $5 billion loss and counting.    

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 01:27 | 2478447 General Debility
General Debility's picture

Mea Crapa very funny. I suppose they're saying a few of those over at the Vatican Bank too.

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