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JPM Max Pain At 6 Month Highs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While we can argue over which exact position Iksil and his crew had on, the widening in IG9 10Y spreads post-Dimon signals an unwind of epic proportions continues. It seems the mainstream media has grown tired of discussing skews, basis, curves, tranches, and tail-risk but for those who care about the reality that JPMorgan faces - we note that the credit index most closely tied to the CIO's office debacle continues to push wider. Today sees the spread at six-month wides (up a hulking 33% since Dimon's mea crapa). Perhaps this helps explain why JPM just can't get a bid (or hold onto one even after last week's ECB/Fed print rumors) as its stock's price hovers just in the red YTD (with a $32 handle).

 

Source: CMA

 

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Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:11 | 2476288 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I predict...pain.

(Mr. T/Clubber Lang, Rocky III)

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:14 | 2476304 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture
Pain is ready, pain is waiting
Primed to do it's educating
Depeche Mode "Dream On"
Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:18 | 2476331 Assetman
Assetman's picture

"Awesome"... hehe.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:31 | 2476664 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

I predict...

Uncle Bennie buys JPM's junk via a confidential liquidity program for TBTF/Systemically Important banksters...

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 16:11 | 2477157 TheTwoJohns
TheTwoJohns's picture

Weinstein is gonna get loaded.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:16 | 2476321 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

Poor Jamie's bank is being sold short.  Hope he feels like someone who was long silver for some of the selloffs he created.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:18 | 2476338 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

SMART IDIOTS

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:29 | 2476385 ACP
ACP's picture

Shut up Jamie before I have to kick your ass again!

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:50 | 2476471 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

That frigg'in head of his would fit perfectly between them, hell, who's to say that they're not related?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:36 | 2476688 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Timmay gave you -1 because that is his Uncle Jamie...

Bevis and Butt-head gave you -2 for associating them with Jamie The Clown...

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:14 | 2476306 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

With the information available through ZH about this whale trade backfire, it is amazing that JPM continues to trade at 1.4 BV.  The stock should be trading in the lower $20s at this point.   

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:39 | 2476422 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Book value is rehypothicated. Real value is negative.

Sold some old furniture and I had to pay the guys to remove it from my house. Same concept.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:34 | 2476408 janus
janus's picture

i'll see your cultural reference and raise you one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrykk7E_2i0

just mark (to market) it eight, smoky.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:13 | 2476294 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Fuck off and die JPM.

Edit: This is blatant pandering for greenies.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:15 | 2476307 fuu
fuu's picture

You'll get them.

Just Putrify More bitchez!

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:17 | 2476318 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

They need to throw in the damn spiderman towel

THROW THE DAMN TOWEL

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:13 | 2476516 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lmao. By greenies do you mean boogers?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:14 | 2476305 Joshua_D
Joshua_D's picture

Die JPM scum.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:14 | 2476308 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

if i was told the 10 year would be at 1.62% then i'd have assumed the spx would be at 1000 or less

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:21 | 2476351 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Seriously like if the market does crash are treasuries just going to negative?  I really don't understand it.  Market is still near its high, seems like its going to just correct 20% one day to even out.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:25 | 2476366 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

junk,    TIPS are negative all the way to 20 year duration to the government reported CPI index (which is understated and magnifies the negative yield)  

FDIC only covers 250K, so APPL and others must store cash in treasuries, because they are not stupid enough to plow this money back into the economy and risk it all

scary times

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:45 | 2476442 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And they know not to buy PMs after watching Buffet try his silver play back in the day. Because if he can get bitch-slapped by TPTB, anyone can. Besides, just look at the sweetheart deals he's gotten since (though many will once again require fedgov backup, of course).

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:39 | 2476426 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I would have thought the whole thing would have exploded at these levels. The thirty year is trading at 2.71 simply amazing.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:15 | 2476309 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Maybe they can hedge their position by going long FB....

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:18 | 2476335 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I can't decide which one I like better,

FB = Falling Brick

FB = Fleeced Bumpkins

FB = Fried Bankers

FB = Fraudulent Bullshit

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:27 | 2476376 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

FB used to mean 'fucking bernanke' as in europe will pull a FB

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:15 | 2476310 onis_uk
onis_uk's picture

I will relesh watching every second of that companies demise ! :o)

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:29 | 2476384 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

you don't idolize zuckenburger?   he's a genius and apple was sent by angels

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:15 | 2476312 pissing_excellence
pissing_excellence's picture

Alice Kingsley: I've been shrunk, stretched, scratched and stuffed into a teapot!

http://youtu.be/RcAJKyL6hLA

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:15 | 2476314 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Guess we have the Bear Stearns/Lehman candidate for 2012 in our sights.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:17 | 2476324 fuu
fuu's picture

Can you warn us if you go in at $5?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:26 | 2476365 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I am hoping to pick up JPM at the same price Goldman gets them during one óf those Treasury-moderated weekend emergency sessions: $2.

The whole question is what happens to the infamous JPM PM portfolio once JPM starts going belly up.  Will Jim Rogers scoop that porfolio up for a few Spiderman towels?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:34 | 2476403 fuu
fuu's picture

All I know is you picked the bottom on BAC perfectly.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:41 | 2476430 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Will let you know.  But it still seems too early to buy JPM.   Wait until the $32.50 bottom feeders from last week start capitulating    

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:46 | 2476747 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Volume that day was not exceptional, particularly at $32.50. Just kind of bled into the close then gapped up a little the next morning after the patient got a dose of hopium.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:03 | 2476537 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Everyone knows Goldman wants MS not JPM. JPM will be merged with Citi and the US gov will own all the stock.

These idiots should have raised capital a month ago. If they had they'd be able to pick up Barclays, CSFB, UBS etc... All for pennies on the dollar and Government gaurantees.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:17 | 2476323 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

WHEN THIS GENIUS FAILED

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:42 | 2476435 franzpick
franzpick's picture

JPM's CIO prop bet loss is the camel's nose entering the derivative tent: the coverup does not hide the $400T disaster hiding in plain sight, and I hope the camel soon has a defining sneeze attack.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:08 | 2476556 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Never stand behind a sneezing camel.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:47 | 2476754 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Sandy Weill approves of that message, WB7.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 17:31 | 2477433 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

After all, Sandy and Bob Rubin started it all. Then these 2 senior members of La Kosher Nostra wisely got themselves out of the spotlight. Get a load of this f*cking shyster...

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877329,00.html

"Who decided banks had to be all things to all customers? Weill did. Starting with a low-end lender in Baltimore, he cobbled together the first great financial supermarket, Citigroup. Along the way, Weill's acquisitions (Smith Barney, Travelers, etc.) and persistent lobbying shattered Glass-Steagall, the law that limited the investing risks banks could take. Rivals followed Citi. The swollen banks are now one of the country's major economic problems. Every major financial firm seems too big to fail, leading the government to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to keep them afloat. The biggest problem bank is Weill's Citigroup. The government has already spent $45 billion trying to fix it"

And that's from f*cking TIME.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:08 | 2476558 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Brilliant William!  Could be that the pricks have finally pricked the credit bubble!?  "Look out below" for almost all assets particularly paper and digital assets.  Metals will tumble too in nominal terms but NOT in purchasing power.

I am Tuco

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:17 | 2476325 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Tyler keeps using the term "handle"  (ex from post above: JPM with a "handle at $32), but i don't understand what it signifies or how it's useful for placing a trade.  Would much appreciate explanation  - thanks!

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:19 | 2476341 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Handle just means the dollar amount so when it is anywhere in $32 dollars ($32.01-32.99) its a $32 handle.  Just finance jargon not a trade entry

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:20 | 2476345 wisefool
wisefool's picture

its usualy the number infront of the decimal point. $32.XX share.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:20 | 2476346 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I think he means can't handle the truth ;-)

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:23 | 2476358 Assetman
Assetman's picture

The term "handle" refers to an approximate term, since the price of JPM equity keeps on finding new levels. 

A $32 handle suggests that JPM has currently seen some trades below $33 (say $32.98)... and it might go lower (or less likely, higher) pending incremental information.

You're welcome.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:39 | 2476389 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Thanks everyone.  Could he also perhaps indicate the "cup and handle" pattern that can occur in a chart?  see: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp 

It seems to fit the JPM chart in the post above.  In your experience, has it had much relevance? 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:51 | 2476476 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

It apears more to resemble the 'Teabags on Chin' pattern.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:52 | 2476483 franzpick
franzpick's picture

The 'cup and handle' formation is the position of Jamie and his fatal drink before he does the 'socrates'.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:46 | 2476447 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Handle is also a descriptive term for a 1.75 bottle with a handle, as in "I picked up a handle of vodka, now let's party! Bitchez!"  

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:18 | 2476908 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

As in "BAC still has a 7 handle - Why?"

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:20 | 2476342 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Every Jamie cloud now comes with a Silver lining

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:24 | 2476364 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Now if somebody would sqeeze them in their naked silver shorts it would be funny to watch them squirm.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:48 | 2476458 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I have to give myself a +1 for the double entendre. ;->

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:26 | 2476371 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

How many unthinkable $trillions  "nominal" in derivatives in the JPM?  It is the big fat spider at the center of the derivatives web.  Counterparty risks?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:04 | 2476540 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Max Kaiser says JPM derivatives pile is now a tidy $90,000,000,000,000.00.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:26 | 2476374 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Ever since they trotted out Blythe "The Hedger" Masters to do PR things have turned sour.  She definitely needs to do more rounds on CNBS to fully drive this shit wagon JPM into the ground.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:28 | 2476381 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

TBTF's in survival mode - desparately want repeal of 'Gramm, Leach, Bliley Act' & 'CFMA' --- only way out is to handover spoiled-loot[?] to central planners?

regards, Obamacare's

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:29 | 2476387 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

JPM's pain becomes Fed Reserve Asset, then becomes pain to US Citizens.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:33 | 2476397 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

If they were still holding that trade, and they are not, else they would have had to declare the megalosses (say 20B)............  Not even JPM can bury that one in the backyard.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:34 | 2476404 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

This is nothing...just wait till everyone is taking delivery on their paper silver.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:35 | 2476407 Conman
Conman's picture

Well good thing JPM is backed by us hardworking americans right?

Lets go PPT save us today, i see glimmers of manipulation, lets jsut go full retard and turn this bitch green today.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:39 | 2476423 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The only green I see is silver and gold.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:49 | 2476456 Conman
Conman's picture

Dont underestimate the PPT. The daily afternoon ramp job about as sure as getting a std from a 20$ bj from a hooker.

"Stocks are off the lows" whenever you hear this a PPT member gets his wings.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 16:08 | 2477143 Chump
Chump's picture

There's a new paradigm at work.  The robots are selling the fucking spike now that everyone and his brother has been taught to believe in the magic of the PPT.

It's similar to QE.  Everyone knows what it is now and expects it, so it's not coming.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:35 | 2476409 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Just because you're a Savant it doesn't mean you're not an idiot...

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:36 | 2476416 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

Who ordered the code red?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:41 | 2476432 famousamos
famousamos's picture

so... i was just wondering with the recent Rothschild/Rockerfeller union... could they actually let JPM fail? or is that insane to think?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:46 | 2476446 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

JPM is part owner of fed.  In other words "they are they".  Here a best guess in terms of ownership of the privately held federal reserve.  These stocks should always be viewed with the perpsective that they "are" The Fed.


Best Guess Fed ownership:

 

The top 4 banks:  B of A, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup & Wells Fargo-Wachovia control roughly 54% of the stock of the Federal Reserve Bank.  The top 10 banks, including Goldman Sachs, HSBC and the Bank of New York control roughly 70% of the stock.

 

 

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:47 | 2476454 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Club members don't let other Club members fail.

Failing is for the Muppets.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:24 | 2476940 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Well, LTCM wasn't in the club, and Bear Stearns sure wasn't after not helping on the LTCM tear-apart, but Lehman? Wasn't Lehman in the Club?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:52 | 2476488 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Think of all of these entities as the "Goose that lays the golden egg." As long as the goose stays healthy, the eggs keep coming. As we see now though, they're all in their terminal stages, of which there is no escaping (as per Mises).

So, each entity faces a choice, do they kill it to their liking, or turn it into a zombie on fedgov life-support? In each case, the answer will be, whichever provides the most benefit to those holding the guns at the time.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:01 | 2476523 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Didn't Obomba disclose he has a few mill invested with JPM? If true, I smell a baaaailout coming.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:43 | 2476434 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Once again....

 

Nelson to JPM SHITHOLDERS...(CUZ THE MANAGEMENT WILL DO JUST FINE COME HELL OR HIGH WATER)

 

AH-HA!

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:44 | 2476436 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We really need some more renewed Fleeced Buyer Schadenfreude from Tyler.  Every Fallin Brick long is now losing money. 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:45 | 2476445 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The Management team at JPM feels just terrible about their mounting losses which must, of course, now be passed on to the Fed and the American Taxpayers.

The team is highly motivated and committed to making huge profits on their next bet in the Casino that old timers fondly refer to as the "Market".

JP Morgan, Capitalism, and Trust.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:46 | 2476449 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

"PILE ON THE RABBIT...PILE ON THE RABBIT!"

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:48 | 2476460 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Maybe if they sell even more Silver they don't own they can get their SP back up.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:51 | 2476474 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

AS MENTIONED HERE BEFORE EXPECTED LOSS AROUND 7BILLION USD HOWEVER IF THE INDEX CONTINUE DETERIORATING AT THE CURRENT RATE WE MAY BE TALKING SOMETHING IN THE ORDER OF 10+ BILLIONS USD

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:07 | 2476548 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I think you're a little low.

It has been shown that the share repurchase program would have to be halted if losses exceeded $30B.  Well, it has been halted.

Jim Willy also is on the record saying that over the next year(s), losses will be revealed to be in the $100's of Billions.

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:52 | 2476487 spooz
spooz's picture

But wait, Hilary Kramer on Marketwatch says there are five reasons to buy JPM, including "$2 billion is not significant":

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-reasons-to-buy-jpmorgan-chase-2012-05-30

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:29 | 2476652 Matt
Matt's picture

It would be nice if everyone writing articles like that were required to disclose their positions, including their VWAP. It's all fine and dandy to go tell other people what they should do with their money, if you aren't doing it yourself.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 13:53 | 2476493 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Silver: $28 p/oz

JPM: $32 p/share

Now how silly is that? It's the Poster Boy for f*cked up. I mean, how many hundred trillion $ of derivative debt does silver hold on its books?

Take a picture for posterity. One has an unlimited future, the other is a walking dead thing

Confucius say: choose wisely glasshoppa, and buy with both hands

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:44 | 2476736 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Margin Stanley looking solid as well.

Golden Bull getting ready stomp some necks...

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:12 | 2476575 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

How do you eat a whale?

One bite at a time.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:12 | 2476577 Yohimbo
Yohimbo's picture

is it just me or does Dimon remind you of Q from star trek - (john de lancie)

http://www.rankopedia.com/CandidatePix/61003.gif

I think the roles are similar. 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:34 | 2476685 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Puts on JPM are the closest thing to a sure thing there is.  Plus, you're doing something for humanity. It gives the common Joe the ability to do some good in the world. Watching Jamie die like the wicked witch getting a bucket of water thrown on her, (I'd prefer throwing a bucket of shit and piss on Jamie), gives one a warm and fuzzy feeling.  I try and start my day by buying at least one or two July 34 puts onJPM in hopes that it helps ruin Jamies day. Plus I buy physical silver every week. Ha ha Jamie, fuck you...how do you like it bitch?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:57 | 2476804 sudzee
sudzee's picture

As demand and production of copper slows JPM silver short may have no out. Talk of JPM copper ETF may be how they are looking to offset real demand. Copper production down means byproduct silver down. Want to short JPM just buy a little more silver. The crunch is coming.  

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 14:39 | 2476715 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Is this going to affect my bonus?

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:08 | 2476859 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

JPM will pull their advertising from any sport that involves "running".

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:08 | 2476860 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

The coming crash is almost palpable.  I bet the veins on Jamie's pea head are bulging.  I hope he gets destroyed.  He's such a sack of shit.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:38 | 2477006 NotAnAvgBeanCounter
NotAnAvgBeanCounter's picture

How poetic the 2nd most hated CEO's company is headed for the wood-chipper... maybe it really is time change the way things get traded

 

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 20:12 | 2477774 OC Money Man
OC Money Man's picture

Achilles Macris, J.P. Morgan’s CIO in their London office, used the bank’s access to cheap capital from the Federal Reserve to amass his OTC derivative gamble that high yield and sovereign debt interest rates would fall, after MF Global suffered a $1.2 billion loss on similar bets and was forced to file for bankruptcy last October 30th.

Morgan’s gamble became very profitable after December 21 when the European Central Bank (ECB) began making $640 billion of three year loans at 1% interest, referred to as “Long Term Refinancing Operations” (LTROs), available to the banks of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS). By the end of December, J.P. Morgan’s total derivative exposure was $70.2 trillion on just $1.8 trillion of bank assets, according to the U. S. Controller of the Currency.  Morgan is reported to have continued heavy derivative buying in January and February. Its profits soared again when the ECB announced LTRO2 as another $714 billion in three year low-interest loans to PIIGS banks.

The stock of J.P. Morgan vaulted from $29 per share in December 2011 to $45 a share in March 2012 as rumors swirled that Achilles Macris and his London team of 6 had already made $2-3 billion as high yield and sovereign debt interest rates continued to fall.  A jubilant Jamie Dimon announced that J.P. Morgan would increase its dividend and buy back $15 billion of its stock.

Everything seemed rainbows and unicorns for J.P. Morgan until France and Greece elected hardcore leftist candidates who want to abandon austerity spending cuts and increase social welfare spending. Interest rates on the PIIGS sovereign debt shot back up.  My estimate is that J.P. Morgan has suffered a $7-8 billion loss since March and are at a net $5 billion loss and counting.    

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 01:27 | 2478447 General Debility
General Debility's picture

Mea Crapa very funny. I suppose they're saying a few of those over at the Vatican Bank too.

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