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JPM Raises Q1 GDP Forecast From 1.0% To 2.5% GDP At The Expense Of Even More Future Growth
Now that US Congress provides "solutions" on a month to month basis with outcomes delayed until the 11th hour and 59th minute, the Treasury funds itself paycheck to paycheck, hedge fund LPs only allow a daily lock up and demand liquidity statistics (as in how much of the entire book can be sold on an hour's notice), and all that matters is what happens in the next few hours, it is JPM's turn to raise Q1 GDP... at the expense of future growth. Because nobody really cares about the future anymore: after all following yesterday's lowering of Q3 GDP, US debt/GDP is now 100.04%. But nobody wants to talk about that because, once again, it's about the future. And we are having enough issues with the present as is. Here is JPM's Michael Feroli just hiking his short-term forecast, knowing too well he will eventually have to lower future growth. But that is tomorrow's, and thus, someone else's problem. In the meantime, #40dollars sure goes a long way.
Following their "Airing of Grievances," Congress today approved a two-month extension of expiring payroll tax and unemployment benefit measures. This extension removes a significant fiscal headwind that had been holding back 12H1 growth in our forecast. Because it is only a two-month extension, the acute fiscal tightening is only pushed back for a short while, however our forecast now assumes that lawmakers will follow through on the stated desire of Congressional leadership to extend these measures for the entire year. The change in fiscal policy mostly affects growth in the first half of the year, for which we are revising up the average annualized real GDP growth rate from 1.0% to 2.5%, due to better personal income and consumption outcomes. The measures to pay for the two-month extension -- higher GSE mortgage fees -- mostly exert their drag after 2012. We assume whatever measures pay for the remaining ten-month extension similarly defer the pain until later years in the ten-year budget planning horizon. Our fiscal year 2012 budget deficit forecast is revised up from $1,000 billion to $1,150 billion. Obviously today isn't the most ideal time to be changing forecasts, but it is the day Congress chose to change policy. Below is an update to our forecast spreadsheet.
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I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a payroll tax break today.
LOL!!! That sounds like something Wimpy Bernanke would say.
-John
http://www.youtube.com/CarMarketer
JPM is a satanic organization. Jamie Dimon stole all the customer accounts from MF Global. He then has the audacity to say in the newspaper that anyone speaking out on this is just "jealous".
I should add that a very common trait of sociopathic individuals is the illusion that they are being stalked, watched, or envied. Jamie Dimon and JPM are a sociopathic, demonic, selfish enterprise.
Ann Barnhardt says it like it is. Listen to her interview with Peter Schiff:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18A698QQex0
Here's Kyle Bass, coming as close as he dare in public, citing motive for COMEX/JPM takedown of MFGlobal,imo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjAeriVttw0&feature=related
OT, but a good article on how SOPA will destroy the internet. We better enjoy ZH while we can. Don't think you are going to stop this anymore than 90% of folks being against TARP stopped that. The cocksuckers in DC just will not stop taking our freedoms!
http://blog.easydns.org/2011/12/22/how-sopa-will-destroy-the-internet/
2.5%, ROFL, fiat numbers..........
Here is what they are really saying: The gov't deficit spends about 1.5tr a year which = 10% of 15 trillion GDP. So, real GDP is current GDP less the 10% of GDP gov't deficit spending. This means real GDP is about -8.5% right now. So, they expect gov't deficit spending to increase by a couple of hundred billion or the real GDP will 'improve' to -7.5% and/or some combination of the two.
Wow! that really sounds great eh?
(Delete)
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But beyond those particular worries and perhaps more important than any of them is the sense that from here on, anything goes. The politicians will do whatever they find convenient, because there is no longer anything to stop them – not an electorate that is jealous of its freedoms and certainly not the Constitution, which is now just a playhouse for judicial imagineering. No one can know what's coming next from the government and the financial system it has fostered...
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32276.html
That is one hell of a big leap in GDP forecast isn't it?
Smells so familiar...could it be?...Is it?...yes!!1 yes!!!...I know that smell!!!!...It's BULLSHIT!
Such a familiar stench in this market.
These guys always upgrade at market highs, and downgrade at market lows..
JPM?.........those bastards........Teri Buhl writes that they are worse off than BofA
Why stop at 2.5%? Let's just make it 5%! These guy's street cred is quickly approaching ZERO (no pun intended on ZH)!
It's maliciously un-Amerikkkan to forecast GDP growth as being anything more than 10%!
We ARE the greatest country in the world! We WILL grow to infinity and beyond!
We ARE the land of the free and home of the brave.
And Santa Claus is engaged with oral sex at the moment with the Tooth Fairy, as the Great Pumpkin and Jesus (yes, they do make a cute couple) smoke a fat doobie and play with their pet unicorn.
I think you meant to say that GDP growth is LESS (not more) than 10%.
Big Boyz have solidified the 'markets.'
All is calm, all is bright. Rown yon virgin so tender and bright....
https://twitter.com/#!/___jon/status/150251804385492992
you know you want to.
They are trying to create an 'end of the year rally', by manipulating perceptions, so they can make book. SOSDD.
For a minute I thought you had suggested an "end of the world" ralley.
USD can go to zero and it will still be worth more than any piece of paper coming out of Dimon's moonshine factory. The hookah is full to the brim with hopium, and the Morgue-sters are hoping some further misdirection will help make the sheeple flee from their millions of short metal and whatever other improprieties they use the Crimex affront to hide.
There, my rant is done.
We couldn't do 2.5% this year WITH the payroll tax break AND accelerated depreciation. We are not adding stimulus this year. We're actually taking some out. Where can I bet the under?
Buy puts on JPM.
How about the increase in fran and fred mortgage fees? Nothing to see here just move along.
None of these numbers mean anything.
Did you know last Saturday was the best saturday before Christmas in sales ever? Based on the same metric as the black friday sales surveys. The immense pile of bullshit will never stop. There was virtually nobody out last Saturday. I was in JC Penney and Macy's last saturday and it was a ghost town. I asked a sales girl how the day had been. She said she has never been more bored. They sent half the sales associates home. If a Republican was in the White House rght now there would be endless stories of sales doom from the media. Obama gets a pass becuase he has been the best president for Wall Street in history. Baraponzi Fraudbama.
Man we're really kicking future's ass!
#winning!
ha ha, back to the future ad infinitum
A little Christmas humor from the TRIBE.
This douche bag Feroli is clearly a crack head, unable to think beyond his next hit. Writing this drivel for a paycheck must be better than sucking dick to support his habit. It is as if he is just completey making up numbers to hand in so he can avoid getting a zero on his homework. I've seen better critical thinking from 9th graders.
this is called the Crisis shuffle dance. Like during great depression, marathon dancing. Step by step, quick step and slow step, back step and immobile partner rotate, square dance and bear dance; only one no-go : keep the bull out, hog-tie him in his pen, and we may make it to the end. Loooooong tunnel coming up. Wow, poor bull; he'll have balls the size of ostrich eggs after all this abstinence. You could even sell them later on as unused icons. For a killing.
Is JPM's "glorious" GDP outlook adjusted for a 25% oversstated new housing starts, or are they using last year's humbler 16% overstated housing start stats??
Did anyone look at the details of the "payroll tax cut"?
Congress/Administration Allows Taxpayers To Keep 2% More Of Their Paycheck For 2 Months - Requires Almost 1 Billion Mortgage Refis and Purchases To Fund
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
More government propaganda to hide the extent of the economic collapse.
I think this is one of the most important information for me. And i am glad reading your article. Good job, cheers. Hookah