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July ADP Wash As 14K Expectation Beat Offset By -12K Prior Revision

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the 3 or so people and vacuum tubes who actually care about the ADP employment report, whose NFP predictive fault rate is about 100%, the July number was a wash, printing at 114K or above expectations of 100K, while the June number was revised from 157K to 145K, or in other words a complete wash relative to expectations. On the other hand, the NFP will do whatever the BLS decides it wants it to do, just like the BEA will make the GDP number indicate whatever the US Department of Truth wants it to indicate. From the report: "Employment in the service-providing sector rose by 121,000 in July, marking 19 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 7,000 in July, the second decline in three months. Manufacturing employment decreased 1,000 in July, which has seen growth in seven of the past nine months. Employment in the service-providing sector rose by 121,000 in July, marking 19 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 7,000 in July, the second decline in three months. Manufacturing employment decreased 1,000 in July, which has seen growth in seven of the past nine months." As for the two critical occupations of construction and financials: there was nothing good there: "Employment in the construction industry declined 11,000 in July, the third consecutive monthly decline, bringing the total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 to 2,135,000. Employment in the financial services sector decreased 1,000 in July, bringing the total employment decrease for that same period to 687,000."

And some pretty but irrelevant charts:

 

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Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:31 | 1520026 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

14k beat, ignored revision, sprinkle in some suggestions of QE3 possibility in the headlines and the algos will go wild.  Recipe for a green day.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:33 | 1520034 oobrien
oobrien's picture

If I were the U.S. government, I'd start to get frightened.

I'm no Harvard lawyer.

If an idiot like me can begin to figure out their game, the filthy unwashed masses can't be that far behind.

What we have is state capitalism.  We're a bunch of fascists like the fucking Chinese.

But what do I know?

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:35 | 1520037 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Net effect of ADP report on the markets. Are we having fun yet?

Chase Tail

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:35 | 1520044 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

:-) Awesome CD.
ORI

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:35 | 1520041 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

NUMBers. I love trashing NUMBers.

NFP. F? Which F? Heard of Agenda 21? Anyone? Go ahead, gogle it. Agenda 21.

F! hah! So, FP is a joke. What to speak of NFP eh?

Only way pay-rolls will go back up is a change so severe the entire system goes belly up. Other-wise, just more of the same ne? Supply side, service side jobs.

Only real in-ovation will change anything.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/30/pre-cursor-01/

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:36 | 1520047 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stinkflation. Thats a technical term used by anal-cysts and eCONomists BTW.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:40 | 1520057 Doode
Doode's picture

From that chart overlay NFP should be negative - at least 50-80K. Unemployment rate should spike up to 9.5% or so. Should be fun... It seems that BLS numbers always overshoot in the direction of momentum set by the previous 2 months by ADP.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1520076 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

It's all bullish (for CDS, that is)

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1520077 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Yeah ADP!!!!

#BTFD

It was fun saying that again.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:58 | 1520092 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

In an age when 50 milliseconds is eternity, thinking back a couple months is like visiting the pyramids when they were being constructed.

Time compression bitches.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1520078 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

But the ADP report is "developed and maintained" by Macroeconomic Advisers, aka Larry Meyer, how can it not be competent?

I think they've changed the way they calculate ADP 3 times since it's inception 5 years ago. Only gets worse.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:56 | 1520085 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Next QE Fed should be involved in housing I think, which is still main source of the problem. All those construction jobs lost + household net worth declining. Bump those prices up and you got consumer spending boost. That be interesting to see how and where they going to be involved this time.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:57 | 1520090 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Sets a nice rise in the market only for the big NFP hit friday -25k

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:59 | 1520094 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Aside from the ruse that the Fed and others are acting to stimulate the economy; QE3 will commence if nothing else because the US is still at currency war with China. So unless China makes nice and pretends Iran, Pakistan, and others we say are their enemy; the Fed will continue to try and overheat their economy on purpose

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 09:17 | 1520137 r101958
r101958's picture

If you look at the original ADP/NFP numbers for June at 157k and 18k then the current 114k for ADP might give a hint at the NFP number (negative or maybe 14k)?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 09:43 | 1520209 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

The FED should initiate direct swaps with hair/tat/nail salons.

 

trend is  friend , bro.

snap to it jamieD.

straight cash , homey!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:47 | 1520553 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

This Friday NFP is critical....everything to date has been pretty dour. If the NFP is bad more downward momentum, but if they fudge it enough (BD additions) they might maintain.

It will be interesting to see what kind of a rabbit they pull out of their hat. Friday will be fun.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:41 | 1667345 chinawholesaler
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