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July ISM Prints At 50.9, Huge Miss Of 54.9 Consensus
Earlier today we said: "the reverse decoupling thesis will be tested once again today after the July ISM is released with consensus looking for a 54.9 print, and Zero Hedge looking for number just a tad above 50." (LaVorgna was at 54.0) Unfortunately, we were correct: the July ISM plunged from 55.3 to 50.9, or yes, "a tad above 50", on expectations of 54.9. This is the lowest ISM in two years, and confirms that the Fed's viagra no longer does anything to help the soft spot. The market took it in stride and plunged to late Friday lows. So much for the latest US debt ceiling raise market euphoria. Every single subindex dropped, with only exports and imports posting an increase, although with Imports +2.5, this more than offsets the benefits from Exports rising by just 0.5. Also, New Orders, Backlogs, Customer Inventories are all sub 50. The biggest drops occurred in Prices and and Employment, confirming that not only are employment conditions deteriorating but price making ability continue to erode.The Wall Street kneejerk commentary is hilarious, with TD's Green calling it a 'Freakshow': "TD chief economist Eric Green says in client note he is “struggling to find any silver lining” in July ISM “as the underlying components were, with the exception of export orders, lower across the board."
Charting the index: a disaster.
And the market reaction:
Repondents are not happy:
- "Inflation pressures have finally slowed down." (Chemical Products)
- "With products sold internationally, the business conditions we are currently experiencing are declining from abnormally [high] record-breaking levels. Business conditions are currently flattening to more normal volumes, while trending slightly downward." (Machinery)
- "Market conditions — Europe weak, U.S. soft, Asia strong." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Demand from automotive manufacturers continues to improve." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Export sales very strong, while domestic sales are sluggish." (Paper Products)
- "The looming debt ceiling has government agencies backing away from spending. Forecasting a slowdown in demand in the short term." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Generally seeing a slowdown, which is typical this time of year. Hopeful that this is seasonal only." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
- "Most industrial customers seem to be sustaining their business. Export orders continue to remain strong. Price pressures persist, especially with commodity materials." (Chemical Products)
And some other observations:
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (11); Brass; Copper (12); Copper Based Products (9); Electric/Electronic Components; Metal Parts; Plastic Products (7); Polyethylene* (2); Rubber Products (6); Steel* (11); Steel Products (8); and Titanium Dioxide (4).
Commodities Down in Price
Corn; Diesel Fuel; Ethylene; Gasoline; HDPE; LDPE; Polyethylene*; Polypropylene; Soybean Oil; Steel* (3); and Wheat.
Commodities in Short Supply
Butadiene; and Electric/Electronic Components (7).
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Owned. Nice call this morning of a # just above 50.
F'n NAILED IT!! dayyem
5yr. blasts to new lows. So is that smirking monkey in the bowtie still "short Treasuries as we speak?” Et tu, Gross one?
http://members.fortunecity.com/axalon2/sounds/pain_is_my_friend.wav
Goldscum groupies gripping their ankles with grim determination after shorting the 5yr. @ 1.70%: “Thank you, Mr. Blankfein. May I have another?”
Uncle Gorrila is very unhappy with Gross's Oz flirtation, better come back into the fold before he gets cornholed a new one.
Wonder if Oz will do an Ireland.
See? ill be awight.
Gap n crap, bitchez
jISM Bitchez!
Nooooo! Why is everything going wrong! Ben.
I don't know about you, but my boobs are sore.
Let me help.
Crank the wringer in reverse please!
54.6 was so wide of the mark it looked almost deliberate.
Now make sure you vote as Jamie told you...
No, we actually are in a depression. But I welcome them printing more money it will make the total collapse that much sooner and my PM's to the moon.
DIVE DIVE DIVE...
But captain, all the airlocks are still open and half of the crew is still standing on deck...
"But captain, all the airlocks are still open and half of the crew is still standing on deck."
What a fitting analogy of how things are really destined to play out. The captains of finance plan to submerge the ship (economy), leaving most of the workers (middle class) topside. How long can the middle class tread water before they go under for the last time? I'd bet that those esteemed captains of finance are getting tired running this experiment, and hope that soon we all just capitulate.
I feel a lot better.
Who was really surprised by this print? What I am enjoying is the +200 bps swing between last night and 30 min that the market has been open. We need to break below and stay below the 200DMA in order for QE3 to get a plausible go. Additionally, though, we need WTI to break $90.
DOW CRASHES
SILVER SPIKES
How nice :)
I can live with that spike ... don't worry. Jamie will be along shortly with the shorting hammer to drive silver right back down.
$40 silver will soon look very cheap.
So why is the dollar catching a bid along with Gold & Silver?
It is? I see USD/JPY @ 76.42, vertically dropping by the second.
FXStreet one minute chart showing jump from USDX @ ~73.95 to currently 74.17.
USDX very misleading, like looking at turds bobbing in the punchbowl.
Thx for that. Had me laughing out loud.
Daily fluctuations strike me as unimportant. Look at the six-year trend in weekly increments. New people enter the fx market all the time, and other people leave it. In addition, governments affect fx markets when they deem it to be in their interests to do so. Maybe the Swiss are sick of the appreciating franc??? So they buy dollars. Hence, there are always low-level, random fluctuations. The US personal, household debt levels are still 400% of GDP, and the settlement of the clown circus in DC does not affect it. Household deleveraging will continue for years. The question I want answered is, will the dollar index drop below 72? When?
do you expect a logical answer?
Maybe 'they' are reconnecting Gold and Silver to the Dollar!! HAHAHA I must be asleep still..
I mean, when you're borrowing money just to pay the interest... you are FU#@ED
USD Supportive I guess? The EURO is getting hammered this morning. Though in all fairness I think it has more to do with flight to CHF than anything.
There must be some new news behind this reversal and the AU recovery?
Yeah QE3 is coming for sure.
"There must be some new news behind this reversal"
Nope, new behinds in the news. See:
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/WellnessNews/butt-thigh-fat-make-healthier/...
YEA lets hear it for more trailerpark booties! Ever seen Sarah from the canadian series Trailer Park Boys?
SPX just dipped below the 200DMa for the first time since September 10, 2010.
hmmm.......
The EUR V CHF dropped 100 pips on this news
Two rounds of QE = check
Massive Fed intervention and subsequent dollar devaluation = check
Record corporate profits = check
... and the US economy STILL STINKS!
Barry and Timmy and The Great Chairsatan have failed.
Thats all...we are in a depression, and they can print as much money as they like and it wont make a bit of difference, just speed up the crash is all more QE will do. Because no ones buyin it anymore.
Sooooooooo glad I kept my shorts on over the weekend! FU Obama and CONgress!
'More shortly'
Is it really necessary? I mean clearly those wild fire in Arizona...
wow look at Gold - vertical move!
Where's RoboTrader?
Asking mommy's permission to use her PC this morning after getting caught jerking off to porn last night...
actually momma has dibs on watching porn first, before robo gets the keyboard all sticky!
silver and gold bitchez! Keep stackin' the phyzz and don't look back!
I had hoped for a bigger sell off so I could get it cheaper. I guess everybody had thesame thought process.
Yep...the Con is on big time today...look at the POSX (piece of shit US Dollar Index)...it's been going straight up all morning and PM's are still strong in the face of it. That don't make no stinkin' sense. This will be another bizarro week...just keep that dry powder ready to BTFD's though. I'm sure the EE will let the Monkey's loose for their usual mid-day attack.
Then I'll drive on up to Gainesville Coins and snag another 20 to 40 silver Buffalos!
FUBM!!!
I don't think this was the dip we were all looking for. Not big enough for one thing. Looks like the Asians "bought the news" overnight, then we Americans started trading. WE know all too well how good our government is at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and this AM's comments by non-leadership in congress indicate they may not go along on this ride. I think we get another chance at it. Bought a little more in the short dip, but keeping lots of powder still dry for the larger one I expect still....if not, I'll just start BTFDs on the way up again. And allocate more to the core positions in PMs.
Looking for good shorts as well. IF things are really going in the crapper, perhaps something like a badly run steel company. Seems we got what we were going to get off shorting banks for a bit and if they go too much lower, they'll get more help I think - dangerous trade below some point.
All the stars are aligning.... to welcome QE3
With a vengeance
USD/JPY just hit record low 76.29
Devastating -- Fukushima redux.
ES now down 6 consecutive days, we got yet another -1035 TICK
That's 18 days out of the last 21 trading days we've had a "mini-panic"
youre calling a -1035 tick a mini panic?
do you actually follow the market or just stare at your screensaver?
poor 'tard. foiled again. he ran his victory lap last night before the race began, and once again for those who pay attention, confirms his well deserved title as the ultimate dumb money indicator.
LOL MomoFader with another robot computer generated cut n paste post. What the hell is that even supposed to mean?
There will be no QE3! Didn't you hear that the US economy is aactually doing fiine now that the debt ceiling issue is taken care of.
The PigMen are sending a message to Washington today.
Pass the debt ceiling, or else.
And never ever raise this issue again.
Otherwise we'll crush stocks and the people will be steaming mad, demanding that Washington fix it by whatever QEx is necessary.
in a few minutes, if he hasn't already, the 'tard will be on hands and knees praying to be bailed out, promising never again to go long any security with a beta north of .000001.
LOL, poor 'tard...now his entire existence depends on 'The Pigmen' doing what he wants and expects them to do, gift his high Beta bullshit stocks more. Not happenin Skippy!!
that's right. the 'tard brays it, so it must be. lol.
What's happening in Italy. It's index is severely in the red.
Blimey! Its down near 4%. Its 10 year is closing in on 6%. Real greaseball shit bitchez!
REAL greaseball shit, IL Popa is probably soiling his robes!
The 54.6 call by those experts was the dumbest prediction I have ever seen. So unreal that, as someone said earlier, must have been deliberate. I would be embarrased to stay in my job after that.
It's a bust.
..Fortunately, condom usage rises (sic) later in the year...
Political manipulation of public markets is the responsibility of all socialist governments...
Political manipulation of public markets is the responsibility of all fascist governments...
there, fixed that for you.
USDJPY spike, intervention time.....
Lol, poor ol Leo.
Coming up on the 4th attack on the 200 dma. This one is it.
Someone please put the trashy Euro out of its misery please, that POS should be under 1.20 by now LOL Nothing like a ponzi scheme...huh?
1.20 against the USD? You've gotta kiddin'! Shit divided by shit squared makes a smaller shit. Therefore the EUR should be rising (which is what it has done over the past year or so, as the 'European' debt crisis - yes it was only Europeaaaaaan! - unfolded).
Tom O'Brien will be babbling about how we re-tested the lows on 30% lighter volume.
and the 'tard will be begging his bossman to let him go full time to process the same set of 1099's over and over again for accuracy, given the collapse of his etrade account.
Forget all that gibberish, how about your calls for 2 weeks to go all in long? What, thats water under the bridge now and youve worn out another eraser reversing all your paper trades?
Expect a week long string of bad news. The debt ceiling viagra did not last 2 minutes past the opening bell. Obama, Tiny Tim and the Bernank must have simultaneously crapped their pants. And August data will be worse as summer hires get fired.
The eCONomy is rapidly slowing. Is the Bernank crazy enough to purchase another Trillion in toxic garbage with oil already near $100/Barrel? Probably...but the second he announces QE3 I am gonna pull a Bob Prector and go:
DOUBLE SHORT! ha!
In less that 24 hours, the U.S. Treasury could possibly default.
And the 5-year yield is at 1.27%.
That is perhaps the greatest acheivement, even greater than rallying the SPX by over 90% in the face of the worst economy in 50 years.
Golf clap for Ben Bernanke, the greatest central banker magician of all time.
And Momo has been calling for 2 weeks' better get all-in on high beta momos.
What happened did you wear out another pencil eraser reversing all your paper trades?
if he is let him continue to serve as my net worth has done nicely with the shiny.
btw: earlier you said there was no crisis. now you're saying ust could default. is default not a crisis?
hd down: check
mo down: check
vz trading in its .0000001% band: check
poor 'tard.
'VZ trading band of .000000001%' AHH HA HA HA HAAAA HA!
Your mask is slipping, Ben.
Boiled rope for that PUTZ schlemmie Benny.
Huh? Whut?
Leo posted, and I asked a valid question. What happened to the post and subsequent replies? Do we censor here now?
Leo said: "above 50 means economic activity is EXPANDING!"
Valid observation. Is there any way to determine how much of the ISM is due to U.S. Government purchasing (i.e. defense spending, durable medical supplies paid for by Medicare/caid, etc.)? The other comparison would be to the previous ISM prints. If they were all subsequently lower, then this could be perceived as "coasting" since the acceleration period has ended and the last of the "kinetic energy" of the economy is being spent.
I hope you are right, even slow growth can be useful if that gain can be channeled into job creation and CapEx.
How much of it is nothing but govt printing and pumping? 90% at least?
Tyler stop censoring me!!! Above 50 means economic activity is EXPANDING! Keep buying the dips, will be smoking hot summer!!!
What happened to Leo's comment? That was a great picture, but was he serious? Leo, were you serious?
Huge Miss Consensus looks nothing like Leo's fantasy babe.
we will be green, at least for a tick, at some point before the end of the day
yup, typical 'sell the news'....algos working overtime today as elite hedge funds are loading up on risk! ;)
Wow so the presidents plan to double exports in 5 years not looking so good.
Shocking!
I thought he was trying to double the trade deficit in 5 years.. my bad
"Wow so the presidents plan to double exports in 5 years not looking so good."
Unless you change the index and use emigration as an export? Becoming an expat now makes you a "product of U.S.A." and you can help the bottom line!
You misunderstood him.
He meant exporting jobs.
Social justice, or something.
Ready to pick up some TMV at 31.40.
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