July Non Farm Payrolls Slam Expectations At 163,000K, Unemployment Rate 8.Rises To 3%

Tyler Durden's picture


Expectations were +100,000, NFP prints at 163,000K. Goodbye QE in 2012.

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing.


Household Survey Data


Both the number of unemployed persons (12.8 million) and the unemployment rate (8.3 percent) were essentially unchanged in July. Both measures have shown little movement thus far in 2012. (See table A-1.)


Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics (10.3 percent) edged down in July, while the rates for adult men (7.7 percent), adult women (7.5 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and blacks (14.1 percent)  showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.2 percent in July (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)


In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.2 million. These individuals accounted for 40.7 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)


Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little in July. (See table A-1.)

Participation rate drops to 63.7%, 3 month low and back to secular low levels:

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Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:32 | 2675250 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:33 | 2675255 malikai
Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:36 | 2675273 flacon
flacon's picture

If the markets go down today, does that mean the VIX will tank as well like it did yesterday?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:40 | 2675287 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

All unemployment problems are easily fixed by simply adding more debt. Let's all get government jobs and see how that works out. har har

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:42 | 2675297 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

It must have something to do with the weather.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | 2675365 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Transitory job creation due to seasonal factors led to an overall greater print, but this is an absolutely terrible, terrible report, thus necessitating a further round of printing money to distribute to the bff of the FRBNY....errr....a further round of QE in order to create fiat from thin air and finance deficit spending...........errrr......a further round of monetarily stimulative bond and toxic asset buying by the Fed in order to try and jolt life into the economy- yeah, that's the ticket.




Ben S. Bernanke

cc:     William Dudley

cc:     Timmmmay

cc:     Lloyd & Jamie

bcc:   The Hon. Jon S. Corzine

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:29 | 2675512 flacon
flacon's picture

I am glad you didn't forget to add the descriptor "honourable" to Jon Corzine. ;)

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:32 | 2675524 flacon
flacon's picture

VXX DOWN FUCKING FOUR PERCENT at open! Fuckers! Damn you fuckers!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:42 | 2675298 brewing
brewing's picture

had to increase jobs in "drinking establishments" to accomodate all the new users of prozac...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:43 | 2675301 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Apparently the VIX is being managed to go down every day, no matter what.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:46 | 2675318 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

every single fucking day.....


talk about out-of-whack indicators.....


bonds, vix , domestic stocks, international stocks.......


one of these things is not like the other!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:15 | 2675452 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

think Li(e)bor and you'll begin to understand what is going on with the Vix.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:42 | 2675557 singsing
singsing's picture

...and you know this because?   Insider?  Not disagreeing but there has yet to be any real discussion on this.  What is the benefit of of a suppressed VIX?  Can't figure it out.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:00 | 2675602 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

What is the benefit of suppressed metals?  Perception...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:33 | 2675256 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Close but its actually being called a recovery :)
Yes Some are standard business as normal, but several are not.
Full Reference List Below




Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:33 | 2675258 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Your Nobel Prize is in the mail.


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:39 | 2675283 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

A PhD in economics too!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:42 | 2675296 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Plus free shipping....hell of a deal.


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:42 | 2675299 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Germany, in the summer of 1922, had a 1% unemployment rate.   14 months later, millions were starving to death.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:44 | 2675308 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



So in other words......don't worry about it.


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:20 | 2675480 Sigep0612
Sigep0612's picture

Read the book "When Money Dies."    It's a history of Germany after WWI and the consequences of reparations demanded by Britain and France.  Germany had no choice but to print...print and print.   Inflation went nuts. Their total economy collapsed.  Germans were selling pianos for a loaf of bread.  Merkel is a student of German history...hence her hard line stance in bailing out other countries.

The parallels to the USA today to Germany 1923 are unbelieveably similar.   The unintended consequence in Germany was a guy named Hitler.    The US can look at a 163K number and say whopee we're back....but the reality is we have $16T in debt, adding $1.3T annually for the foreseeable future and a government that is disfunctional.  Debt has consequences.    

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:38 | 2675546 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

Yes, just add more debt!  That'll fix all of our problems... until it doesn't.  Most of us get it, but apparently at least a couple do not (down votes above).

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:39 | 2675286 Silvergood
Silvergood's picture

The data is clearly fraudulent.  Politicians are using tricks to get re-elected!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:46 | 2675319 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Wow, no shit?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 05:40 | 2675331 clearcoated
clearcoated's picture


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:49 | 2675335 d edwards
d edwards's picture

How much was June's number revised DOWNWARD?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2675356 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Follow This Link, Obozo Supporters, With Your Negs> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-and-birth-death-adjustments-add-4...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2675357 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Those figures did not happen on their own !!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:59 | 2675387 Sofa King
Sofa King's picture



They actually said "essentially unchanged at 8.3" as opposed to "rises to 8.3"


Talk about blatent misrepresentation of data.  Holy Crap.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:01 | 2676023 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

I don't know why I'm shocked everyday, Bernanke, Lil Timmy, the White House, CNBC, The Fed Gov's, and Wall Street have all said EXACTLY what they were going to do, and their DOING IT!!!

They believe they are in the middle of a liquidity and credit crisis, and that deflation is the enemy of growth and their expanding debt pool, is nothing more then future growth returns on the economy!!! Most of us on here disagree violently with that premise........ However we shouldn't be surprised by anything that has happened up to now......they told us they would do it and they are doing it!!!!

Plus now we have entered August of a presidental election cycle, which is known in the shadows of the IMC as "the national security window" of the cycle!!! So with trillions of dollars at stack for the status quo and with millions of soldiers, spies, diplomate's, contractors, mercenaries, suppliers, and NATO operating in the field!!! It will become urgent that the stays quo remain!!! It happened in 2004 and it has begun for 2012!!!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:32 | 2675251 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Revisions -6000k in June.

Revisions will be negative in July.

Sell off into the close.


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:35 | 2675266 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

No QE before the election.  The numbers will support that.  Somehow.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:33 | 2675253 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Now markets have to price in a probable real recovery, an Obama victory, and no QE3.  Hmmm.... Where does that take us, Mr. Bear?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:43 | 2675304 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

like i said yesterday, the interpretation was only good news no matter the jobs number, we all know its rigged.

interpretation of good number = No QE but it must be a recovery

interpretation of a bad number = QE

QE will not happen, but does not matter as all news is again bullish, plus europe is up 2%+ today so US markets have no choice but to follow

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:33 | 2675254 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

Again: +1,163,000 temp job, -1,000,000 full time jobs.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:35 | 2675264 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I love the smell of temp jobs in the morning.....smells like.....VICTORY!


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:03 | 2675401 mendolover
mendolover's picture

Yes Mr. President.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:30 | 2675517 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Told you it would work......you doubted me?


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:35 | 2675267 phalfa5
phalfa5's picture

Wish my wife could cook this good....

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:34 | 2675259 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

goodbye Romney too.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:35 | 2675265 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

Romney is toast. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:36 | 2675275 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Blame the Republican party for allowing such loonies to run for their parties nomination.  It was like they wanted to lose on purpose.  Almost like when McCain picked Pailn.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:31 | 2675937 DosZap
DosZap's picture

McCain fried his own ass when he signed TARP, and Palin gave him a 6% increase, and a chance to win.

McCain lost all by himself.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:36 | 2675274 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



That's comrade Romney to you. Let's show some respect.



Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:48 | 2675333 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

I think many more people will vote for MR once they see 12 years of his tax returns. All he has to do is release those and he should start climbing in the polls. I dont know why his team dont realise that.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:57 | 2675378 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I think he can't because he actully did do some tax avoidance/borderline tax cheating.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:14 | 2675444 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

"I think he can't because he actully did do some tax avoidance/borderline tax cheating."


Maybe he did and maybe he didn't. However, the fact that you have this information is amazing. The entire democrat party is trying to get his information. Dude, you are sitting on a gold mine. But a little advice. Your goldmine of information turns to shit before the end of the year so I suggest you get off your ass and sell to the highest bidder.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:39 | 2675745 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Romney's a cunt.

Borack's a dick.

the country is screwed.

you, i surmise, are also a cunt....


from below; the wisdom of Peter Pan:

"Americans need to realise that their only choice is between a red condom and a blue condom. The dick is always the same."

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:34 | 2675261 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

Ben just pulled the plug on the printer and closed the ink cartridge.  Stand on your own you piece of garbage equity market.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:44 | 2675313 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It will take a couple days for hockey-helmeted equities to figure out theyre cut off.

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