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July Retail Sales In Line With Expectations At 0.5%, Ex Autos At 0.5% On 0.3% Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture




 

July retail sales came in line with expectations at 0.5%, which is to be expected: after all, as Bank of America most recent implosion demonstrates all too vividly suddenly, there is a favorable trade off to millions of Americans not paying their mortgage, and also maxing out their credit cards a unprecedented rates. Naturally, the negative one is that BAC and all other mortgage lenders will need to resort to TARP 2 soon but that's in the unforeseeable future. For now: buy, buy, buy. As expected, futures surge because the ex-cars numbers rose from a revised 0.2% to 0.5%, on expectations of 0.3%. Somehow this minute beat is enough for stocks which blatantly ignored yesterday's trade data which indicates that Q2 GDP will be revised to about 0.6% from 1.3%. But this is the kind of robotic myopia we have all grown to know and love that dominates what was once a carbon-lifeform dominated stock market.

From the report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $390.4 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 8.5 percent (±0.7%) above July 2010. Total sales for the May through July 2011 period were up 8.2 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2011 percent change was revised from +0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.

 

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from June 2011, and 8.9 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 23.6 percent (±1.7%) from July 2010 and nonstore retailers sales were up 14.1 percent (±2.8%) from last year.

 

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Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:42 | 1553753 eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

Just enough to casue a small risk on pop in eurusd.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:44 | 1553756 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

This should rally the markets 800 hot points today and recover to last weeks highs at which point the markets will move to new 52 week highs and contiune up as now all selling of stock is banned. SO AS TD SAYS BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!! (so the poor insiders can SELL SELL SELL!)  

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:46 | 1553765 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Apparently, Grape minds think alike.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:58 | 1553796 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Awesome! Stocks straight up from here, no need for QE3 at all!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:45 | 1553757 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Should be good for an 800 point pop on the Dow given that it popped for 400 on nothing yesterday. I'm on fraud overload.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:02 | 1553810 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, and with markets soaring 5% daily now, Ben shouldnt have much to talk about at Jackson Hole at all, just a declaration of 'ALL IS WELL'!

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:45 | 1553760 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Americans are exceptional at shopping and eating.

I think that is what American exceptionalism now refers to.

"Yanks:buying crap we don't need with money we don't have".......BOOYAH!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:48 | 1553773 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@lizzy

Shopping is one of the few coping mechanisms for much of the US population.  Feeling sad?  Go shopping!  This belies a sad lack of contentment for Americans.  Blame it on the youth culture, blame it on easy money; either way, Americans constantly need external stimulus to maintain inner happiness.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:08 | 1553821 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I see neighbors all the time arrive back home and unload an SUV full of retail crap from a day of USAA+ main pastime driving around buying random shit.

Still confusing about this market direction though, seems to me Bernank is signaling no QE, certainly not creating great panic and demand for it thats for sure.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:28 | 1553874 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

shopping, eating and lying, mostly to ourselves

we are not facing a shortage of resources, we face a longage of expectations - Nate Hagens

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:46 | 1553761 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But this is the kind of robotic myopia we have all grown to know and love that dominates what was once a carbon-lifeform dominated stock market.

It's not even a 'market' any more Tyler. More like a Ping Pong game between HFT algos. Who's turn to serve?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:52 | 1553778 augie
augie's picture

Dunno about you cog, but i'm done serving. I'm ready for some insurection. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:30 | 1553882 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

me too, I have an insurrection erection

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:01 | 1553803 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Thankfully the credit markets are absent of that shit. There is pretty much ZERO liquidity mind you, but they at least appear to be working. The syndicate desks (responsible for raising funds for original issue) here have been doing absolutely zero for the past week, any firm wanting to raise capital in either bonds or stocks is getting turned down cause neither the bank wants to take on any risk of underpricing the issue nor the issuer doesnt want the risk of getting a shitty raise which in turn raises their CPN required or creates a shitty IPO for them.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:45 | 1553763 Cursive
Cursive's picture

adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes

 

BLS adjusts for everything EXCEPT price changes.  If a roll of toilet paper costs 1.5 times or twice what it did 10 years ago or last year, there's your spending increase.  It's similar to the survivorship bias in the retail sales numbers.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:01 | 1553968 Jessica6
Jessica6's picture

That's what I figured. I haven't shopped for groceries in the US lately but in Canada it's just awful.

The worst is on stuff people have to buy, but only once very few weeks or months like toothpaste or shampoo or baking soda. They've also been shrinking the sizes and slapping on a 'sale' price that is the same as the bigger version - like cans of kidney beans or cereal - cost two months ago.

They've been doing it for a while now but they aren't even subtle about it any more.

On top of that, when oil prices plunged, conveniently there was a 'supply shortage' due to refinery maintence in Sarnia so gas prices in the GTA stayed pretty much the same.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:48 | 1553768 docj
docj's picture

Rally-ho!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:49 | 1553774 HedgeFun
HedgeFun's picture

Tyler, in looking at the components, it appears consumer discretionary spending is actually DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD and retail food services products, clothing and gas are substantially up.  Smells of inflation on core items more than anything.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:53 | 1553781 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Got to max out those credit cards for Jr. and Miss so they can make an impression at school.  Never mind the education part (as if the school system was about education anyway).

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:14 | 1553839 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes got to outfit Buffy with her ultra short skirts leather bras and pole dancing lessons for 6th grade.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:21 | 1553859 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

"ultra short skirts"?  hemlines going up?  the market follows the trends in hemlines, withthis news the market is about to rise, time to buy

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:09 | 1554012 Jessica6
Jessica6's picture

Funny you mention that.

The micro mini has been in (unfortunately - girls aren't the size they were in the 80s!) for a couple of years now, but the more fashionable urban once are wearing the ankle length skirts and dresses...

http://www.vogue.com/collections/previews/

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:55 | 1553783 Boston
Boston's picture

Is it me, or has Robo been very quiet lately?

I want to hear what happened with the RTH collapse and when exactly it's going to soar to new highs.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 08:55 | 1553786 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

from "mo/mo" to "slo-mo." let's take a look at the action!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ml7vT51vUSk&feature=player_detailpage

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:00 | 1553788 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bad news=stocks soar, market euphoria as QE3 expectations get baked in.

Good news=stocks soar, nevermind QE3!

Wow absolutely no need for QE3! Its a stock party!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:04 | 1553815 Fazzie
Fazzie's picture

 CAC up nearly 3 percent . Nothing like your contries GDP grinding to zero along with a bank run to rally stocks.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:11 | 1553832 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All that free FED money sloshing around out there. And if we can have +500 point rally days, then theres absolutely no need for any more QE liquidity out there.

Whats Ben going to do, run it up then big drop for sudden JH panic in a few days?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:06 | 1553820 warchopper
warchopper's picture

it is sad that this could be construed by the BOOYAH crew that we remain on a recovery trajactory. However, it is more likely that we are at the peak of this business cycle. Just like 9 percent unemployment is now the bottom of the unemploymenrt cycle in comparison to the previous 4 percent that used to mark the bottom. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:09 | 1553827 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

were going down today..heavy selli g frm the open.

vc

 

 

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:15 | 1553833 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

virgilcaine these markets are like Saddams rape rooms.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:27 | 1553876 pods
pods's picture

A product of the CIA psyops dept?

pods

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:13 | 1553835 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

It's my fault. I've been buying ammo, seeds, and canned bacon.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:23 | 1553866 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

"Don't forget your fruits and veggies." sez Michelle

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:28 | 1553879 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

That is the kind of stuff food eats to become food.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:15 | 1553842 askmes
askmes's picture

Any data to support the "there is a favorable trade off to millions of Americans not paying their mortgage, and also maxing out their credit cards a unprecedented rates"; not disputing it, just trying to monitor the trend.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:18 | 1553850 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its the 'Great Enslavement'....those people maxing out credit cards today will work off their debt in FEMA forced labor camps soon.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:19 | 1555208 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Don't forget those who have been forced to cash out their pensions and 401k accounts.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:16 | 1553845 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

North Dakota vacation Tyler? Aw that looks so nice! Dude ranch probably a good place for when armageddon hits. Leastwise they got chickens and beef critters around.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:23 | 1553857 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

using a moto xoom wifi now..boost to sales via short positions. Watching Btv live..pretty cool w zh .

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:22 | 1553862 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Never was an index so aptly named

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:47 | 1553927 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

 

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the

actual change is different than zero.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:55 | 1553954 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The clown show seems to never end.  Maybe they should add to this ridiculos report how thin the profit margins are and what percentage of the goods we sold "on sale" or below cost.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:58 | 1553962 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

I dont know about you but I buy only necessities and nothing more and I can afford much more.  The uncertainty is now ingrained in this economy and without the removal of this clown in the White House, I see nothing changing.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:59 | 1553965 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Gasoline is included in retails sales and the fact that gas station sales were up 23.6% year over year sums it up for me.

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yang46's picture


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