July Retail Sales In Line With Expectations At 0.5%, Ex Autos At 0.5% On 0.3% Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture

July retail sales came in line with expectations at 0.5%, which is to be expected: after all, as Bank of America most recent implosion demonstrates all too vividly suddenly, there is a favorable trade off to millions of Americans not paying their mortgage, and also maxing out their credit cards a unprecedented rates. Naturally, the negative one is that BAC and all other mortgage lenders will need to resort to TARP 2 soon but that's in the unforeseeable future. For now: buy, buy, buy. As expected, futures surge because the ex-cars numbers rose from a revised 0.2% to 0.5%, on expectations of 0.3%. Somehow this minute beat is enough for stocks which blatantly ignored yesterday's trade data which indicates that Q2 GDP will be revised to about 0.6% from 1.3%. But this is the kind of robotic myopia we have all grown to know and love that dominates what was once a carbon-lifeform dominated stock market.

From the report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $390.4 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 8.5 percent (±0.7%) above July 2010. Total sales for the May through July 2011 period were up 8.2 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2011 percent change was revised from +0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.


Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from June 2011, and 8.9 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 23.6 percent (±1.7%) from July 2010 and nonstore retailers sales were up 14.1 percent (±2.8%) from last year.

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eurusdog's picture

Just enough to casue a small risk on pop in eurusd.

jus_lite_reading's picture

This should rally the markets 800 hot points today and recover to last weeks highs at which point the markets will move to new 52 week highs and contiune up as now all selling of stock is banned. SO AS TD SAYS BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!! (so the poor insiders can SELL SELL SELL!)  

Gringo Viejo's picture

Apparently, Grape minds think alike.

SheepDog-One's picture

Awesome! Stocks straight up from here, no need for QE3 at all!

Gringo Viejo's picture

Should be good for an 800 point pop on the Dow given that it popped for 400 on nothing yesterday. I'm on fraud overload.

SheepDog-One's picture

Right, and with markets soaring 5% daily now, Ben shouldnt have much to talk about at Jackson Hole at all, just a declaration of 'ALL IS WELL'!


lizzy36's picture

Americans are exceptional at shopping and eating.

I think that is what American exceptionalism now refers to.

"Yanks:buying crap we don't need with money we don't have".......BOOYAH!

Cursive's picture


Shopping is one of the few coping mechanisms for much of the US population.  Feeling sad?  Go shopping!  This belies a sad lack of contentment for Americans.  Blame it on the youth culture, blame it on easy money; either way, Americans constantly need external stimulus to maintain inner happiness.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I see neighbors all the time arrive back home and unload an SUV full of retail crap from a day of USAA+ main pastime driving around buying random shit.

Still confusing about this market direction though, seems to me Bernank is signaling no QE, certainly not creating great panic and demand for it thats for sure.

DaveyJones's picture

shopping, eating and lying, mostly to ourselves

we are not facing a shortage of resources, we face a longage of expectations - Nate Hagens

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But this is the kind of robotic myopia we have all grown to know and love that dominates what was once a carbon-lifeform dominated stock market.

It's not even a 'market' any more Tyler. More like a Ping Pong game between HFT algos. Who's turn to serve?

augie's picture

Dunno about you cog, but i'm done serving. I'm ready for some insurection. 

DaveyJones's picture

me too, I have an insurrection erection

ZeroPower's picture

Thankfully the credit markets are absent of that shit. There is pretty much ZERO liquidity mind you, but they at least appear to be working. The syndicate desks (responsible for raising funds for original issue) here have been doing absolutely zero for the past week, any firm wanting to raise capital in either bonds or stocks is getting turned down cause neither the bank wants to take on any risk of underpricing the issue nor the issuer doesnt want the risk of getting a shitty raise which in turn raises their CPN required or creates a shitty IPO for them.

Cursive's picture

adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes


BLS adjusts for everything EXCEPT price changes.  If a roll of toilet paper costs 1.5 times or twice what it did 10 years ago or last year, there's your spending increase.  It's similar to the survivorship bias in the retail sales numbers.

Jessica6's picture

That's what I figured. I haven't shopped for groceries in the US lately but in Canada it's just awful.

The worst is on stuff people have to buy, but only once very few weeks or months like toothpaste or shampoo or baking soda. They've also been shrinking the sizes and slapping on a 'sale' price that is the same as the bigger version - like cans of kidney beans or cereal - cost two months ago.

They've been doing it for a while now but they aren't even subtle about it any more.

On top of that, when oil prices plunged, conveniently there was a 'supply shortage' due to refinery maintence in Sarnia so gas prices in the GTA stayed pretty much the same.

HedgeFun's picture

Tyler, in looking at the components, it appears consumer discretionary spending is actually DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD and retail food services products, clothing and gas are substantially up.  Smells of inflation on core items more than anything.

dwdollar's picture

Got to max out those credit cards for Jr. and Miss so they can make an impression at school.  Never mind the education part (as if the school system was about education anyway).

SheepDog-One's picture

Yes got to outfit Buffy with her ultra short skirts leather bras and pole dancing lessons for 6th grade.

Muddy1's picture

"ultra short skirts"?  hemlines going up?  the market follows the trends in hemlines, withthis news the market is about to rise, time to buy

Jessica6's picture

Funny you mention that.

The micro mini has been in (unfortunately - girls aren't the size they were in the 80s!) for a couple of years now, but the more fashionable urban once are wearing the ankle length skirts and dresses...


Boston's picture

Is it me, or has Robo been very quiet lately?

I want to hear what happened with the RTH collapse and when exactly it's going to soar to new highs.

SheepDog-One's picture

Bad news=stocks soar, market euphoria as QE3 expectations get baked in.

Good news=stocks soar, nevermind QE3!

Wow absolutely no need for QE3! Its a stock party!

Fazzie's picture

 CAC up nearly 3 percent . Nothing like your contries GDP grinding to zero along with a bank run to rally stocks.

SheepDog-One's picture

All that free FED money sloshing around out there. And if we can have +500 point rally days, then theres absolutely no need for any more QE liquidity out there.

Whats Ben going to do, run it up then big drop for sudden JH panic in a few days?

warchopper's picture

it is sad that this could be construed by the BOOYAH crew that we remain on a recovery trajactory. However, it is more likely that we are at the peak of this business cycle. Just like 9 percent unemployment is now the bottom of the unemploymenrt cycle in comparison to the previous 4 percent that used to mark the bottom. 

virgilcaine's picture

were going down today..heavy selli g frm the open.






SheepDog-One's picture

virgilcaine these markets are like Saddams rape rooms.

pods's picture

A product of the CIA psyops dept?


Rodent Freikorps's picture

It's my fault. I've been buying ammo, seeds, and canned bacon.

Muddy1's picture

"Don't forget your fruits and veggies." sez Michelle

Rodent Freikorps's picture

That is the kind of stuff food eats to become food.

askmes's picture

Any data to support the "there is a favorable trade off to millions of Americans not paying their mortgage, and also maxing out their credit cards a unprecedented rates"; not disputing it, just trying to monitor the trend.

SheepDog-One's picture

Its the 'Great Enslavement'....those people maxing out credit cards today will work off their debt in FEMA forced labor camps soon.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

Don't forget those who have been forced to cash out their pensions and 401k accounts.

SheepDog-One's picture

North Dakota vacation Tyler? Aw that looks so nice! Dude ranch probably a good place for when armageddon hits. Leastwise they got chickens and beef critters around.

virgilcaine's picture

using a moto xoom wifi now..boost to sales via short positions. Watching Btv live..pretty cool w zh .

jmcadg's picture

Never was an index so aptly named

ZippyBananaPants's picture


* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the

actual change is different than zero.

MFL8240's picture

The clown show seems to never end.  Maybe they should add to this ridiculos report how thin the profit margins are and what percentage of the goods we sold "on sale" or below cost.

MFL8240's picture

I dont know about you but I buy only necessities and nothing more and I can afford much more.  The uncertainty is now ingrained in this economy and without the removal of this clown in the White House, I see nothing changing.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Gasoline is included in retails sales and the fact that gas station sales were up 23.6% year over year sums it up for me.

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