Jump Risk Jumps After American Bankruptcy, Sends Junk Plunging As Major Debt Refi Cliff Approaches

Tyler Durden's picture

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Tsar Pointless's picture

Might as well jump. Go ahead - jump. Forget it and jump. Go ahead - jump.
With apologies to those who hate the David Lee Roth flavor of Van Halen

Ted K's picture

How much did Aztec Cams pay Hagar for that??? That's better than his usual version.

Ted K's picture

Don't be ragging on Diamond Dave.  He's the only one at the concerts who acts like he gives a shit about fans.  A guitarist who looks drunk, a bass player who stands on stage like he's waiting for movie tickets as he fingersyncs to Michael Anthony, and a drummer past his prime.  Dave "brings it" at least. And Diamond Dave doesn't LIE to fans like Eddie "I'm so insecure I bully this band like a 12 year old starting a band in my garage" Van Halen does.  Michael Anthony lasted in that band because he was willing to be shit on on a daily basis.  Dave NEVER played that game.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Your shit is junk, bitchez!

distopiandreamboy's picture

Air France flight 447 is cleared for take off

Sophist Economicus's picture

See RISK jump.   Jump RISK jump.   Jump, Jump, Jump...

SheepDog-One's picture

Jump risk jumps on junk...may as well JUMP! Sure wish we could see some bankers jumping out of windows on Wall St.

CPL's picture

Jump fuckers!!!  JUMP!!!


What a retarded market day.

Captain Benny's picture

And it's gone.  It's all gone!

Jump you mother fuckers.  Jump.


Its an all out run for cash right now and I'm laughing my ass off.  Better get the deer pic ready, the market is about to have a flash crash incident.

SheepDog-One's picture

Bad news? Who fell asleep at the editors desk? We're SUPPOSED to be having a wild Santa rally!

Smiddywesson's picture

I am guilty of calling that rally, but it looks like the market's been naughty, not nice.

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

California's and Illinois' state debt is junk quality. It ain't going to take much in higher rates to push them off a cliff.

Caviar Emptor's picture

No! My Empire of Junk : It's Melting!!!

Caviar Emptor's picture

When junk turned to junk, then to gold and back to junk again: a history of the LBO-driven false prosperity that left America with, well, junk

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Whaddaya expect when dealing with junkies?


way-out-west's picture

All those banks can just jump on my junk...

firstdivision's picture

Wow!  2016 looks like a long shot at even being remotely covered.  Ben better fire up the printing press to bring down the cost of paying that outstanding debt.

earleflorida's picture

a chinese junk just left the harbor,... report is, several coolies jumped ship -  drowning at sea

muhuca's picture

Chart doesnt match article.  The article talks about the HY market, chart is a picture of leveraged loan maturity wall.

MFL8240's picture

Goldman Scahs posted list of 2012 investments includes High Yield Bonds, which put another way are junk bonds.  They CANNOT be trusted on anything.

death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

This Fucking Ponzi is unravelling. All the printing cannot stop the inevitable plunge. The nexus is right here. Right now. Let it crash!

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

How is it a suprise that RDN (or MTG for that matter) are going to default?

Dr. Engali's picture

I have never been able to understand how an airline can continue to come to the capital markets and raise money. Who invests in this crap? Somebody who needs a guarranteed tax loss ?

Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Depends on timing. Do you think AMR JFK's 5.40's of '20 will come back at some point before 2020? They're trading at 20 cents on the dollar.

Gate receipt bonds, same name 8's of '12 trading at 90.00 

This is the pattern that airlines have taken for years. If you own it at par and dump the fuck at 20.....you're fault. Buy at 20 and see it go higher......who's the fool?

Airlines can always raise money, just at higher rates and, get ready..........buy side investors that invest in crap!


Gidas19's picture

when is AMR going to trade on pinks?

non_anon's picture

ha ha, suckers!

J 457's picture

Who has the list of HY companies with debt maturity in 2012/13 that might follow in the steps of AMR?

Variance Doc's picture

This is also known as contagion.  Very sophisticated intensity based default models incorporate contagion as a factor that effects the probability of default.  This is a hot area of research in finance/financial engineering.

It will very interesting to see what future default data (and there will be lots of defaults in the coming years - just due to declining growth!) will challenge the default models.

Also, Tyler states "Until AMR, jump risk was not an issue.", which is complete BS.  Many researchers (including me) have shown, both theroretically and empirically, the contagion or "jump risk" has always been present in modern finance.

casfoto's picture

you can't jump out of the basement....

FranSix's picture

Its ironic an airline bankruptcy becomes the black swan that just might very well take down the system.

In the airline industry nobody goes to jail for criminal negligence, despite having exhaustive, expensive forensic investigations after crashes.  Sounds like the banking sector,  no?