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Juncker Says There Is A "Plan B" If Greek Debt Swap Fails

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With 9 days left until the end of the Greek exchange offer, many are curious for hints on how the uptake may be proceeding and whether funds have amassed enough of a blocking stake in the Greek bonds (they certainly have it in the UK-law bonds whose exchange offer will take place conveniently in Apil after the Troika's €130 is funded, if at all). Which is why the following statement by Juncker will likely be very closely scrutinized:

  • JUNCKER SAYS THERE'S `PLAN B' IF GREEK DEBT SWAP FAILS

but

  • JUNCKER DECLINES TO PROVIDE DETAILS ON BACK-UP PLAN

For those curious what Plan B may be, here's a hint: it's in the box on the lower right.

Joking aside, it is poor rhetorical form to even mention an alternative to what at least in propaganda circles is assumed to be a foregone conclusion. If Juncker feels compelled to bring it up this early in the PSI process, it is merely to provide himself with additional leverage against holdouts who feel like not complying with Venizelos' pleadings of going along with the "very generous exchange offer" and instead hold out for par recoveries in litigation, an outcome which if it derails the PSI would mean the end of the Greek European dream.

As a reminder, today the Eurogroup once again did not come to a conclusion on Greece, instead couching it in more provisions and conditions, the biggest of which is the successful conclusion of the PSI.

So: how long until the leaks of PSI participation start, and if past is prologue, will they be initial bad, i.e., hinting at unsatisfactory acceptance, only to be replaced with good news at the very end in another attempt to ramp the stock market to the Birinyi promised land?

We will find out in the next few days.

 


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Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment flyr1710
flyr1710's picture

Lies!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

Plan B:  Weallwalkaway.com

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

"we've got a plan B, but we're not going to tell you what it is" ... I guess that's an example of all this 'transparency' I keep hearing about ...

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:40 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

The backup plan is always a Hail Mary pass....it is so written

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

A is for Austerity

B is for Bankruptcy

C is for Collapse

Greece will sing the whole alphabet song. Apparently they're approaching "B is for Bankruptcy"

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:00 | Link to Comment cnx
cnx's picture

D is for Death,

E is for Everlasting chaos

F is for Fly to Hell

... and so on,  until

Z for Zero chance of redemption/recovery.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Your exactly right, it's a big hailmary pass that throws under the bus the rule of law.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

I was wondering about the "IF" plan "A" fails.

Thought it already had. It was designed to fail. Without a crisis the the ECB's UK shadow primary branches would not be able to rehypothocate. They would not be able to nurture and grow little baby counterfeit token siblings. And we can't have that, now can we.

Has the gold the ECB and Goldman extorted from Greece been physically transferred to an ECB vault?

What a fucking set up.

1) Greece applies to join the EU

2) Goldman (nut) Sack through fuzzy transactions or "legit" balance sheet trickery finds a way to hide problematic debt with off the book approval of EZ suits.

3) Greece is in the EU, but needs cash for Olympics.

4) Enter the Goldman (nut) Sack, again. to graciously service placing "new" Greek debt fund the Olympic Project (on top of the Greek debt Goldman helped hide).

5) Goldman is also the "dealer" for the bonds they placed, but the margin stands to Goldmans weren't enough. Goldman wanted more. Goldman's facilitators wanted more.

6) Since Goldman created the dirty little secret they engineered to shoe horned Greece into a financial coffin, Goldman (nut) Sack devises, or executes an existing follow up strategy.

7) After defrauding bond buyers falsely rate Greek debt, thanks to Goldman's legendary circus of malfeasance and chicanery, Goldman writes CDS insuring the "born to default" Greek paper and sells them to the same fools they 3 card monte-ed into buying Greek bonds.

8) Greece, as expected, defaults.

9) As the crisis weakens, Goldman Sayans, or blackmail victims, define and redifine, as the crisis season, what a Default is. Is it 10% or 20% or 30% or 50% of the principal due.

10) Regardless of what percentage of outstanding principal owed to bond holders is used to designate a default, Goldman cannot cover the counterfeit CDS chips it sold.

11) The solution is to first get rid of that fat fuck in the IMF who does not want to auction off Greece. Miraculously, an unappealing hotel maid that most wouldn't fuck with a borrowed dick lodges a complaint.

12) The IMF replaces him with Goldman almunus.

13) A Public referendum boots Greece's elected PM

14) The ECB replaces the Greek PM with another, you guessed it, Goldman Alumni.

THIS WHOLE FUCKING GLOBAL CRISIS IS BECAUSE DEBT GOLDMAN PLACED, AND THE SUBSEQUENT WET POLICIES GOLDMAN SOLD, IN THE FORM OF CDS, TO THOSE THAT BOUGHT GOLDMAN'S  FRAUDULENT BONDS DESTINED NEVER EVER TO PAY OFF - EVER - AND GOLDMAN AND GOLDMAN FACILITATORS KNEW IT FROM THE FUCKING GET GO!

The only question is why Goldman (nut) Sacks still in business.

Goldman did not go public until Glass Steagal was repealed and look at what they've done for the world since.

How did something as infallible as evolution, so we're been told, allow the genetics underlying Goldman's toxic DNA to arrive at OUR moment in history?

We need to study and accept the reality of multi generational crime families.

Exactly!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Actually, that was the backup plan. Tell everyone you have one. That's it.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I thought the backup plan was Harvey was going to ask his brother to buy the beer.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment GovtMediaLiars
GovtMediaLiars's picture

This.
The "backup plan" has, in truth, actually been the "go-to plan" all along. Just tell everyone you have a plan, there is no threat of "contagion," and our leaders have it all under control.
The markets at least appear to belive them. *shrug*
We shall see.

Cheers!

MM's 3/1/12 Market Recap

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

as long as plan B isnt ww3

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Bull-ish-i-mo!

S&P 1400 is assured!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

As long as we go through 13000 and stay there.  I'm just starting to sober up.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Plan B:  B-B-B-Benny and the Jetsss...

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Of course there is.

There's also a plan C, D, E, F, G....what the fuck ever it takes to keep this farce going.

You ain't seen shit yet.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Let's hope Plan A v. 99.02.74 holds....

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

B is for Bomb! They're gonna bomb Greece!

I think i solved it!!!!!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Here's the Greek law bond deal:

You folks accept 30 year paper paying you 3.5%, which is rather a lot below market rates, or else we won't pay you what we owe you March 20.  This way you get 30% of what you're owed, but you have to wait 30 years to get that 30%.

Additionally, you're moved from first place in the repayment queue back to 3rd place behind the ECB and IMF, who by the way, are going to get 100% of what they're owed.

So what say you?  What's that?  Are you sure?  Is that your final answer?

Then let's add a kicker to the deal.  You either agree to this or each of your institutions will lose its business license anywhere in Europe.  Your business will be barred from Europe.  Now what say you?

You're kidding.  Still no?  Let me show you some material.  Is that a photograph of your wife and kids?  Yes, it is, isn't it.  Standing out in the open like that.  Very dangerous.

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

What happens when we run out of alphabet letters? Money we can print but letters?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

A back up plan...well done.

As if a lack of bull shit is a concern at all

Got CDS?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:59 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

3 of the worlds biggest lies:
- I won't Cum in your mouth
- econonmy is doing great
- we have the alphabet back up plan

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The AlphaNumerique Plan!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

lol

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Deep in my brain, way back where it's undeveloped and still giggles at farts and poop jokes I'm + one-ing that.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Marge N. Callz
Marge N. Callz's picture

There is no "morning after pill" for Greece.  The Greek economy is going down the toilet and it won't be long until the IMF or Troika or some mystical unicorn realizes that Greek GDP will not fall by only 1% this year, but more likely 10% and the country will be in a deep depression.  At that point they will have to decide to let them go bankrupt or keep pouring money down the rat hole.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Well, actual the morning after pill is Portugal.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I know plan B!!!!.Let's talk about it for a few months.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Raynja
Raynja's picture

plan b: we'll shove our CAC up your ass.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Junker is to 2012 what GHW Bush (Sr) was to 1988 : "read my lips...No New Bailouts!!"

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Could Greece issue enough notes to make up for any percentage shortfall, diluting the holdouts? I'm sure the ECB would gladly hit the full amount (on behalf if needed), immediately submit it to the swap operation and then declare success with "very high participation" among "investors"...

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment non_anon
Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Arrange by penis. I'm not sure the laugh was worth the time, but it was funny.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:23 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

ah, MsC, thanks for looking!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Plan B: Guns, gold, water, dyhdrated food, & firewood.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Plan B: Angela Merkel sits on the debt until it suffocates, then vaporizes.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Juncker;  "You schtup's will believe everything"  "Look!,  the sky is green"   "Germany just found unlimited deposits of everything"  hohohohohoho,  "Greece isn't going to default"   schmucks.  

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Well, since the CAC wont be triggering a default and a CDS payout I would guess 67% is a pretty tough nut to crack.

Prepare for the Greeks to really get mad.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment marketblip
marketblip's picture

Plan B - www.marketblip.com

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

March 20th. It's the only hard deadline we have at the moment. It'll probably get pushed to the right, but for now, it's the only hard deadline.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Nasty, EU/ECB and all the butboys in-between.  EUR is selling, breaks the 1.32 sitting on the 50ma and we have a free-fall.

Europe, your inflation beat-down is on.  Best riot or something outside the ECB

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Stick Plan B in Orthrus A.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

I can just imagine the possible intrigues involving members of the ISDA DCs.  Scenes from "The Godfather", "The Omen" and "The Devil's Advocate" come to mind.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

hannibal: "i love it when a plan comes together."

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Quantitative_Ap...
Quantitative_Appeasing's picture
  • JUNCKER SAYS THERE'S `PLAN B' IF GREEK DEBT SWAP FAILS

but

  • JUNCKER DECLINES TO PROVIDE DETAILS ON BACK-UP PLAN

Here it is -

 

Plan B - Cry, moan, throw self in front of moving train and/or off balcony.

 

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment itstippy
itstippy's picture

Plan B: They take Slewie's advice.  The U.S. steps in, pays the outstanding bar tab, and Greece becomes a "Non-Self-Governing Territory" of the United States.  It would become a huge tourist destination, like the U.S. Virgin Islands.  No customs.  Friendly natives.  Clothing optional!

It's a way better plan than the crap the Europeans have come up with over the past 2+ years.  Slewie gets to be Govorner if he wants the job, it being his idea.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nah!

just put my avatar up on the arch saying "welcome to america, BiCheZ!"

that's all i've ever asked...

that would be at slewieInt'lAirport, of course...

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:45 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Why do I get the nagging feeling that "Plan B" is just a re-write of the script from "Plan 9 from Outer Space"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_9_from_Outer_Space

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

They have an infallible backup plan but can't reveal what it is. Making that ridiculous statement is the only backup plan they have.

I seem to recall that Richard Nixon had a secret plan, too, to end the war in Viet Nam, just before the 1972 elections.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Here is the "official vote" of the ISDA today: Just the same old crap.

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/03/01/905911/greece-trigger-sad-2/

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:47 | Link to Comment Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

These silly men... they skipped right over the "Jump You Fuckers" part.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:47 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Repeat after me:

 

Plan B is ctrl-P...Plan B is ctrl-P...Plan B is ctrl-P!

High-Ho Silver!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:46 | Link to Comment Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

PLAN B: Load private jet with Greek Gold. Proceed to private South Pacific Island. Sit on beach and drink fruity tropical beverages served by topless attractive native young women while Europe burns.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Rogier
Rogier's picture

When Juncker speaks his own mind, no one in Europe listens. On the other hand: when Juncker is passing a message, you'd better listen...

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:02 | Link to Comment zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

Plan B:

EU will invoke a new currency backed by the whole dynamic and productive effort of the people of Greece bonded into a 1000 year state based on racial purity and the pursuit of leaving space leading to an expanded living area, population and hence growing economy.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Junker...that's not that same pervert banker they were parading around in handcuffs on mainstream news a while back is he?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Rogier
Rogier's picture

Please tell me you're really not that ignorant... Or are you one of those Yanks who believe that Paris is the capital city of Poland.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

CAC will definitly be triggered.

http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Is that a dare or a bluff?  Either way, want to call it?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 01:49 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

1.33 on the EUR, nice, 1.32 goes and you got capitulation. Full force of oil inflation about to cause chaos in Europe. Iran doesn't even have to 'penetrate' that missile shield, just create tension/s.  Inflation will do the rest.  Germany do something about your rogue ECB, that 'Italian' has lost his f*cking mind.

 

(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE)
   By Tommy Stubbington
A new injection of cheap cash this week from the European Central Bank is already working wonders on the Continent's inflamed bond markets.
After banks borrowed 529.5 billion euros ($705.5 billion) at the ECB's second long-term refinancing operation, or LTRO, on Wednesday, taking the total doled out to more than a trillion euros, peripheral bonds have extended their recent rally.
In Italy, two-year borrowing costs fell to 1.74% Thursday, their lowest level since October 2010.
Spanish debt is also reaping the benefit, with two-year yields falling on Thursday to 2.32%, according to FactSet Research Systems, compared with more than 5% in December.
Traders talk of a "wall of cash" being poured into bonds of weaker euro-zone countries. But while the ECB's second three-year liquidity operation attracted even greater demand than the first, many market-watchers and economists worry the rally won't last long.
Data Thursday showed that Italian unemployment rose to 9.2% in January, the highest since 2004, a reminder that behind the liquidity-driven euphoria, so-called peripheral economies don't look so rosy. Unemployment in the euro zone as a whole hit a 15-year high of 10.7%.
Central bankers on the ECB's governing council have weighed in on the debate. German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned in a letter to ECB President Mario Draghi, reported Wednesday in a German newspaper, that the cheap-loan program isn't a panacea. Mr. Weidmann said the central bank's unprecedented lending risks endangering its reputation, and called for a return to stricter collateral rules in place before the crisis.
The first cash injection has been widely credited with averting a credit crunch in the banking system and reining in sovereign borrowing costs from unsustainable levels for the most-indebted nations.
But the problems that caused investors to sell sovereign bonds in the first place remain. Those include soaring debt-to-gross domestic product ratios, stubbornly low growth further stymied by austerity measures, and the threat of contagion as Greece is dragged through a potentially messy debt exchange.
In December, Italian 10-year yields were close to all-time highs at above 7%. They have since fallen two percentage points. Spanish 10-year yields have likewise plummeted more than a percentage point, to around 5%.
With the financial system flooded with liquidity from the ECB, banks have indulged in a "carry trade" -- borrowing unlimited funds at 1% from the central bank, parking the cash in high-yielding government bonds, and pocketing the difference.
Still, precisely because of peripheral bonds' recent gains, such a trade no longer looks quite so attractive, particularly while the old economic issues show no sign of disappearing.
"We continue to hold a strong conviction in the fact that the liquidity-driven rally is nearly exhausted," Biagio Lapolla and Andrew Roberts, interest-rate strategists at RBS, told clients in a note in the aftermath of the second LTRO. "Markets will ultimately come to the realization that the LTROs, although powerful in the first instance, do nothing to solve the underlying solvency issues."
Neither are sovereigns themselves banking on abundant cash to drive yields still lower. "The carry trade has disappeared to a large extent," Ignacio Fernandez-Palomero Morales, the head of funding at Spain's finance ministry, told an audience of investors in the run-up to the second LTRO.
This echoes the view held by many analysts that banks will use the cheap ECB cash principally to refinance their own debt, in a challenging year for bank bond redemptions.
So investors seem likely to turn their attention back to the euro zone's underlying economy.
Once the sugar rush of easy money fades, this may make for grimmer reading.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 01:59 | Link to Comment canuck
canuck's picture

I think Juncker runs in somewhat more discrete, non-socialist, and less harassed circles. He likes the limelight as long as he can get it.

Have you ever been to Lille, or Rijssel, as the Dutch call it? Quaint downtown and a good museum for up there in the Northen French industrial landscape.

I used to go there to a doctor that didn't profess the State doctrine of radiation therapy and spent many terms in jail for it, lawsuits for years. Fucking French. Actually, we can guess who is behind it. RIP.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 02:13 | Link to Comment canuck
canuck's picture

Absolutely, I think we'll be waiting a while til markets of peripheral govt bonds dry up a little. You never know of course. But special circumstances, no "national central bank" fire power anymore. Whereas what do they do in the rest of the world?

And those in the know know who's buying them up and carrying the risk. Even if rates go up a bit from here they'll be in a fix. All nations are doubling up and going for broke under their own circumstances.

 

What I like to draw attention to are scant reported facts such differing debt/gdp ratios in the core, relative health of banks in the core. To assume that the Dutch would just join Germany in a northern mark is silly. We have a harbour, good roads - but me thinks international trade is going to be a bit slow in this year. So that is anathema to our "globally oriented" economy. A unique chance to go canoeing in the Rotterdam harbour soon.

 

I'm not choosing sides here. In the long run we're all dead.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 02:18 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Are you from Holland?  I love that country, the women...Gin, prefer Spanish Gin though.

But Europe is done.  Sad, but true.  Bring up your EUR chart right now.  Should freak out markets a little on open.  There is a flood of Euro's hitting the market. 

The mind boggles

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 05:50 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

You must be a china man to talk like that. Not an american, 'cos you'd be sitting in the same boat then. There is a flood of USD that have ALREADY hit the market, and it ain't over. You do have two hands to wank with. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 06:25 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

god there is some fucknuts on ZH?  China? 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 06:47 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

look in the mirror, and...China is NOT in the debt mountain boat. It may not be on dry land, but its not on the Titanic.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 04:12 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

"there is a plan B, we just haven't figured it out yet.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 05:44 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

For those who want a good understanding about why the Euro System was a botch-up since inception here is a good book written by authors highlighting economic principles developed by a Nobel Prize winner, now forgotten : Robet Mundell.

Nations and firms in the global economy: an introduction to international ... - Steven Brakman - Google Livres

Robert Mundell and the incompatibility trinity. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 07:05 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

falak, thanks for the tip - never heard of Robert Mundell - got to read

---------

I still maintain that the reasons for the euro are still valid and being validated

1. multicurrency peg inside a bloc big enough to withstand trade wars

2. make the best out of the dollar reserve currency dominance (see oil dependency)

3. monetary bloc big enough to withstand currency wars

My Exibit A: the CHF hiding from speculation under the gown of the euro

Any european currency going alone at this stage would be under an immense upward or downward speculative pressure, disrupting all trade of half-finished goods inside the eurozone. the UK can stay out easily because only 13% of it's economy depends on stable flows.

either the euro or the industry has to be shipped to China

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 07:33 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Ghordius,

For Euro to survive it has to go federal big time. Read that report it says it all.

Also, Euro capitalism has to decouple from Anglo capitalism and build its own model. It has to find a new frontier to fuel economic growth. That frontier is staring us Europeans in the face : Africa, a continent of huge potential.

But instead of raping it like France did in Françafrique style we have to CODEVELOP it, not as a colony, as otherwise it will stay sterile clash of civilization, but as a new cooperative frontier. For that Eurozone needs a collective political vision and program.

We are not there, and alas, time is running out. But Africa stays a HUGE opportunity, to kick start a new cycle of economic growth. 1 billion population and all the RM resources to fuel it We have to find the correct key, (not IMF/WB BS), without losing our souls or our own nuts in the current melt down!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

the fate of the euro is coupled to the fate of the USD. which is coupled to the hegemony of the US. (with a small possible option of decoupling)

ultimately, fiat currencies are temporary disposable tax-collecting tokens - though they can sometimes last longer then one man lives

I see the euro and the EU as constructs of will - same as the free trading zone of the German Empire before it was born

and this kind of collective (uh, this is a word that might generate angry comments here) political vision and program is usually born under duress and threats - for example the current bubbling currency wars and the possible trade wars ahead - though the conception of the euro is IMO attributable to Nixon's speech of August 15th, 1971 and the realization then that dollars won't be "as good as gold" forever

I think that euro-capitalism is decoupling from anglo-capitalism - but it's too early to say - though we are witnessing some hints

yes, Africa, China and Russia are both busy snatching up morsels - we are not that far from the 19th Century, are we? ;-)

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

collective = Marshall Plan type investment. It worked in Europe; btw : the desertec scheme is a good future example. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 06:43 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

For plan B: See plan A

For plan A: See plan B

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 08:21 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

I start to believe that this October chart is correctly showing the February peak in EUR/USD, principal trend. That means, that after little correction along time axis to match the 1,35 peak exactly (I will do it later when I am more sure) , there should be an event ( or nothing special) that would trigger long EUR downslide in the END OF APRIL-early MAY.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78027#comment-78027

What could that event (or general increasing weakness in EURo area)  be?

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