With 9 days left until the end of the Greek exchange offer, many are curious for hints on how the uptake may be proceeding and whether funds have amassed enough of a blocking stake in the Greek bonds (they certainly have it in the UK-law bonds whose exchange offer will take place conveniently in Apil after the Troika's €130 is funded, if at all). Which is why the following statement by Juncker will likely be very closely scrutinized:
- JUNCKER SAYS THERE'S `PLAN B' IF GREEK DEBT SWAP FAILS
- JUNCKER DECLINES TO PROVIDE DETAILS ON BACK-UP PLAN
For those curious what Plan B may be, here's a hint: it's in the box on the lower right.
Joking aside, it is poor rhetorical form to even mention an alternative to what at least in propaganda circles is assumed to be a foregone conclusion. If Juncker feels compelled to bring it up this early in the PSI process, it is merely to provide himself with additional leverage against holdouts who feel like not complying with Venizelos' pleadings of going along with the "very generous exchange offer" and instead hold out for par recoveries in litigation, an outcome which if it derails the PSI would mean the end of the Greek European dream.
As a reminder, today the Eurogroup once again did not come to a conclusion on Greece, instead couching it in more provisions and conditions, the biggest of which is the successful conclusion of the PSI.
So: how long until the leaks of PSI participation start, and if past is prologue, will they be initial bad, i.e., hinting at unsatisfactory acceptance, only to be replaced with good news at the very end in another attempt to ramp the stock market to the Birinyi promised land?
We will find out in the next few days.