June Case Shiller Confirms Home Price Declines Continued, Down 4.5% Y/Y, 0.1% Lower In June

Tyler Durden's picture

The much delayed Case Shiller update for June is out, and it is both worse and better than expectations: year over year, the number printed at a -4.5% decline, slightly better than consensus of -4.6%, while the month over month change was -0.1%, on expectations of an unchanged print. Stripping aside the noise means that the housing market is crawling along the bottom after double dipping months ago but at least it is not imploding. And since this report is nearly 3 months old, it does very little to indicate what is actually happening with the economy.

From the report:

“This month’s report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6% from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year-ago,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all the California cities plus Dallas, Denver and Washington DC, all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa – as well as the weakest of all, Detroit. These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together.


“As with May’s report, June showed unusually large revisions across the same MSAs – Detroit, New York, Tampa and Washington DC. Our sales pairs data indicate that, once again, these markets reported a lot more sales closing in prior months, which caused the revisions. Since deed recording is usually county based, if the price trends across counties are very different, then delays from a subset of counties can lead to larger revisions. And data lag lengths tend to vary across the counties within a metro area. If counties with relatively stronger/weaker markets report sales with longer/shorter lags,  this will result in larger revisions as we receive the lagged data. Revisions are also likely to be larger when sales volumes are low or the proportions of distressed/non-distressed sales are changing rapidly. Any and all of these factors are likely contributing to the revisions we have seen over the past few reports.

“Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites were up in June over May. Portland was flat. Cleveland has improved enough that average home prices in this market are back above its January 2000 levels. Only Detroit and Las Vegas remain below those levels.”


The monthly change in the various MSAs that make up the Composite 20: biggest pain is in Portland, Phoenix, San Diego, San Fran, and Las Vegas, while an improvement was seen in Washington, Charlotte and Boston.

Full report

And here is Goldman's take:

BOTTOM LINE: Case-Shiller home price index declines slightly in seasonally adjusted terms, but rises sharply in not seasonally adjusted terms.

1. The Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metro areas falls by 0.06% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, while the median forecast had looked for unchanged prices. Due to upward revisions in previous months, however, the 4.5% year-on-year decline is smaller than the median forecast. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, prices rose 1.1% month on month; we would put some weight on the n.s.a. numbers as there have been questions about the seasonal adjustment process in the Case Shiller data in the past.

2. The (seasonally-adjusted) home price index increases in about half of the metro areas, including large increases in Chicago (+1.32%), Washington DC (+0.95%) and Charlotte (0.86%). The largest declines are seen in Portland (-0.77%), Phoenix (-0.61%) and San Diego (-0.58%).

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Dick Darlington's picture

"Creamer", where art thou?

Flakmeister's picture

WTF? I could have sworn that CNBC just flashed that house prices were up nationally??

Did I miss something?

Note to all: CNBC is muted, it is only a ticker...

Flakmeister's picture

Ahh.. the spinmeisters (no relation!) are at it again... Thnx 

Temporalist's picture

It's "un"amazing that once a gain there is negative news and what is Blmbrg discussing immediately?  Apple!

Talk about sucking the corporate dick!

If not for Apple the spinmeisters would need Santa to come down and hand people presents in summer.

Stumpy's picture

[Something good] amid [something bad]. "Amid". I fucking hate this word. I think it's ugly and that it's used way too often in MSM.

StychoKiller's picture

Perhaps you prefer "amongst" :>D

duo's picture

I had the sound on.  I swear they said up 3.5% in June nationwide, and up 3% or something in the 10-city.  WTF?

optimator's picture

They were probably discussing inflation.

dwdollar's picture

Yes, I saw it on their site as 'breaking news'.

I think they've gone from spinning the facts to blatantly lying.  Give the algos something to chew on for a minute then pull it and pretend it was a mistake.

SheepDog-One's picture

Wait, the consensus was -4.6? Who has been saying home valuations would plummet? No one that I can recall, hasnt all the media central scrutinizers been yapping about how the bottom is in and the future is so bright they gotta wear shades?

LawsofPhysics's picture

Apparently, Ron Paul isn't the only "13th floor".  Just another step towards complete tyranny.  The MSM will simply be ordered to ignore or blatantly lie about bad facts.  Wait, same as it ever was.

Oh regional Indian's picture

From a lecture in 1969. It's been in the works a loooooooong time.

"Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. You'd right away think, well the vacant house, the price would come down, the people would buy it. But there was some statement to the effect that the price would be held high even though there were many available so that free market places would not operate. People would not be able to buy these and gradually more and more of the population would be forced into small apartments. Small apartments which would not accommodate very many children. Then as the number of real home-owners diminished they would become a minority. There would be no sympathy for them from the majority who dwelled in the apartments and then these homes could be taken by increased taxes or other regulations that would be detrimental to home ownership and would be acceptable to the majority. Ultimately, people would be assigned where they would live and it would be common to have non-family members living with you. This by way of your not knowing just how far you could trust anybody. This would all be under the control of a central housing authority. Have this in mind in 1990 when they ask, "How many bedrooms in your house? How many bathrooms in your house? Do you have a finished game room? "This information is personal and is of no national interest to government under our existing Constitution. But you'll be asked those questions and decide how you want to respond to them."



optimator's picture

You'd be forced to lived within  X number of miles from your employment.  The employer would find you housing, based on your value to them.  The 'Emploryer' and your housing would be The State as would everything else.  The State would control everything including prices, where you travel, banking, everything.  Private trasactions without the State would be illegal.  Communism anyone? 

Cruel Aid's picture

To maintain the high home pricing, at some point they will have to begin supply destruction.

Homes don't maintain themselves. Squatters and banks aren't gonna do it.

WonderDawg's picture

The bottom is in until it goes lower, that's about all. RE prices have been artificially levitated just as the equities markets have been. We can't even see the bottom from here. Take out the shenanigans by the banks, let the market clear, and then we'll see the bottom. Personally, I think 40-50% lower from where we are now and we can start talking about a bottom.


lynnybee's picture

real estate bottoms when it's an all-cash market or someone will accept a few gold coins or one monster box of silver for a fabulously gorgeous home or upscale condo.      the scramble to get out of real estate escalates as the boomers get older & realize that they've been had by both WALL ST. & the U.S. GOVERNMENT.     & with the 3.8% tax on residential real estate sales that is due to start in 2013 (slipped into that OBAMACARE bill) , home owners will be getting even less than they were thinking.    Biggest wealth transfer scheme created.     We're being run by the MAFIA .      (where i'm living now you can't even give real estate away ! )

ZippyBananaPants's picture

How fat will Dominic "Dom" Chu get?  wow he has packed on the lbs!!

mist929292's picture

You should see MarketWatch's bold top headline "Home prices tick up in June".  I knew I needed to check ZH for reality. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Financial media now reduced to outright lying fraud water carriers. The end draws near.

Gandalf6900's picture

I will tolerate no violance in my house

Cdad's picture

But Cramer said housing bottomed 2 years ago.  Very well then, continue the implosion.

SheepDog-One's picture

But the Clownhorn and Bloomturd are reporting prices UP!

No part of this can be shown to be a positive anywhere, financial media now reduced to outright whores.

He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Home prices were trending flat in June with Case-Shiller's adjusted composite 10 index, which is a three-month average, holding unchanged for a second straight month (prior month revised from plus 0.1 percent). The composite 20 index edged 0.1 percent lower for a second straight month with 11 of the 20 cities showing declines in June. Seasonality is at play during spring and summer which is a strong time for home sales and, in what is a mild positive, seasonality is also at play this year as well. Unadjusted data show 1.1 percent gains for both the composite 10 and composite 20 indexes during June following 1.0 percent gains for both in May.
Watch for comments on housing in today's FOMC minutes followed by construction spending data on Thursday.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Trending flat' my ass...Ive got a family full of real estate people and there are no sales anywhere, and no construction. All they have is a glut of unsold homes and even if they get a nibble, the closings fall apart due to the shit head banks ultra tight lending. 

Caviar Emptor's picture

Yeah Sheep. Got a friend who was big into the game. After getting lucky unloading some properties by deed-in-lieu he now has properties that are in his words absolutely unsaleable. At ANY price. But taxes and maintenance are on his tab. 

Rainman's picture

The US government is the biggest owner of residential properties...nearly a quarter million of them....or about 30% of foreclosed inventory. They can't figure out what to do with it all.



MachoMan's picture

You mean they can't figure out what to do with the inventory....  other than sell it to cronies for pennies on the dollar?

lynnybee's picture

You mean they can't figure out what to do with the inventory.... other than sell it to cronies for pennies on the dollar?      good one, MachoMan ...... those foreclosed homes aren't available to the average person who could buy them low & live in them; those pennies-on-the-dollar are for the rich, well-connected.      Remember who runs this country now, it's not the citizens, it's the criminals, Obama being bankster-in-chief.      I try to tell my friends & family that the country is being run by mafioso-types & that OBAMA's boss is JAMIE DIMON & OBAMA is really a banker ............ they roll with laughter At ME !   

If I didn't know better, I'd almost swear that the country was being taken down deliberately so that the monied interests could come in & buy everything for pennies on the dollar ; one would almost think this was a grand design, wouldn't one ?   

MachoMan's picture

There are crumbs that fall through the cracks...  and for very, very affordable prices...  but, this is the exception and not the rule...  it's kind of like the grab for gold or silver...  finding 100oz bars, etc., is incredibly difficult and/or impossible at times, whereas finding single ounces or fractions thereof is generally not incredibly difficult... 

The diligent of the morts are out picking up crumbs with feverish pace...  the game is already over for most...  a few are able to use the last of their dry powder (that isn't getting replenished)...  but the top of the ladder keeps getting new powder...

A deflationary collapse would act to combat the wealth gap to a certain degree...  and would end a significant amount of the damage of cronyism...  but that is presuming some semblance of law and order remains and not just a plantation...  which is a fairly large presumption...  and, inevitably, the smartest sharks will have already left for better hunting grounds...  materially unaffected from the collapse or any efforts to subdue them, presuming they have done anything wrong.

The first order of business is to really, really implement justice as objectively reasonable and as diligently as possible...  and, in general, this means a massive gutting of the financial sector...  (not literally)...  this will serve a few purposes including, but not limited to, destroying a few means of their control (including the PPT/FED/banking sector in general) and actually instilling some degree of trust into the system.  This does not mean a redistribution of wealth and a witch hunt for all with any net worth...  that's simply lazy, mob rule and has nothing to do with justice... 

I think A LOT of matters would naturally fall into place after this first order... 

SoCalBusted's picture

In my area, houses are no longer For Sale.  They are For Rent.

MFL8240's picture

More news on the "rocovery"!!  lol!!

warchopper's picture

Just look at the tail of the curve. It's starting to slop upwards! It's a recovery in the housing market!!! //sarcasm//

pantheo's picture

masturbation all the way. MW says the same mass media gum as well


navy62802's picture

Standby for implosion. Imploding housing prices are unavoidable. Prices will nosedive once the banks pull the cork on the bottle. There are thousands upon thousands of foreclosures sitting on the books because of all of the fraudulent paperwork that was used to write the mortgages in the first place. And once those foreclosures hit the books, look out below!! And if you think about it, a housing implosion is the only way to fix the mess that has been created. Inflated prices were the primary support for all of the exotic credit instruments that led to the 07/08/09 financial crisis. And the only way to ultimately fix the problem is to write down the value of the underlying properties. If left to gravitate on the open market, housing prices will plummet. It is inevitable.

legal eagle's picture

Unfortunately, that is more class warfare.  Stealing from the poor to give to the rich.


IMA5U's picture

and BAC is down a mere 0.72%


most crowded short on wall street?

LoneStarHog's picture

Yeah...and...what would happen IF the criminal banks put their HOARD of ROEs on the market?

Hey, Shiller, why don't you include all the ROEs which are OFF MARKET?

PulauHantu29's picture

Driftin glower for 10 years imo. That's the normal RE cycle. Since greenspan held rates at near zero for so long creating an even bigger bubble, this down trend may last a generation of 30 years. And now The Bernank will not let it correct so we can move on and let house prices recover...added to the foreclosure freeze and prices will tumble for years to come.

topcallingtroll's picture

I guess they think 20 years of zero returns with modest inflation is better than a system reset. Since the average person has no savings they are probably following Kant's imperative in a utilitarian sense, the greatest good for the greatest number.

I think a quick system reset and zeroing out all current stock and bondholders in insolvent banks is the greatest good for the greatest number, but what do I know. I am just another anonymous troll.

RobotTrader's picture



Pulte and Lennar taking off like scalded dogs.

Flakmeister's picture

Yep....fill your boots.... I'll take TNH which has already spun off ~$10 in dividends so far this year....

In at about ~98....

Stumpy's picture

Man, I loved TNH. Untill I saw that LPs dividends were cut by 15% (or 30%, don't remember) at the source for canadian investors.

Flakmeister's picture

The converse applied for US investors in the CAN trusts that were in tax exempt accounts... Non-exempt at least you get a credit on your taxes paid....

Still, TNH is a solid long term play, volatile but a keeper.

slaughterer's picture

Do not forget KBH as well. 

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture



Yeah, another correct call by that MathMan guy.  He was the first one calling for a rally in homebuilders in 2H 2011. 

anynonmous's picture

Listening, watching and reading re Case Schiller it is a clusterfck

you can make that report say anything seasonal non seasonal  monthly yearly quarterly quarterly annualized revised etc 

topcallingtroll's picture

Big Mac index is useful here.

Average selling price of usa home 174,100.

Big Mac 3.75.

House to Mac ratio above 40,000.

When it hits 20,000 houses will be a relative bargain.