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June Consumer Price Inflation Unchanged

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today's June CPI came and unlike virtually every other print in the past 2 months, wasn't an abysmal miss: printing at 0.0% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, it was precisely in line with expectations. As the chart below shows, there has been one month of declining headline CPI in 2012 - and somehow this is supposed to usher in hundreds of billions in QE and/or the Fed volunteering to destroy the short-term funding market using negative IOER rates. Brilliant.

but according to Bloomberg's survey this is the biggest beat (a fractional 5bps) of expectations since August 2011...

Some of the notable sequential changes:

  • Food: +0.2%
  • Energy: -1.4%
  • Fuel Oil: -7.9%
  • Electricity: -0.5%
  • Gas Service: 1.7%
  • Apparel: 0.5%
  • Shelter: +0.1% - uhm, did someone forgot to poll New York rents?
  • Medical Care Services: +0.7%

Finally for those who still eat and use gas:

Food

 

The food index rose 0.2 percent in June after being unchanged in May. The index for food at home turned up in June, rising 0.1 percent after declining 0.1 percent the prior month. Major grocery store food groups were mixed, with three rising and three declining. The fruits and vegetables index rose 1.3 percent as the fresh vegetables index increased 3.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.2 percent, and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for cereals and bakery products declined 0.4 percent in June after falling 0.1 percent in May. The index for dairy and related products declined 0.3 percent in June, its fifth consecutive decline, and the index for other food at home fell 0.1 percent. The food at home index has risen 2.6 percent over the past 12 months, with all six major grocery store food groups rising from a range of 0.9 percent (nonalcoholic beverages) to 4.1 percent (other food at home). The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in June and has increased 2.9 percent over the past year.

 

Energy

 

The energy index declined 1.4 percent in June. This followed declines of 1.7 percent in April and 4.3 percent in May. The gasoline index fell 2.0 percent after a 6.8 percent May decline. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices decreased 6.1 percent in June.) The fuel oil index fell sharply in June, declining 7.9 percent. The electricity index, which rose 0.3 percent in May, fell 0.5 percent in June. In contrast to these declines, the index for natural gas turned up in June, rising 1.7 percent after declining 4.1 percent in May. For the last 12 months, the gasoline index has declined 4.3 percent, the fuel oil index has fallen 6.8 percent, and the index for natural gas has decreased 13.6 percent. The electricity index is the only major energy component to rise over the past year, increasing 0.5 percent.

 


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Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:42 | Link to Comment LedMizer
LedMizer's picture

How convenient.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

CPI is so worthless. One of my biggest gripes is that while they are hedonically adjusting the thing for more bells and whistles, nobody is adjusting for the fact that everything you buy goes to shit in a heartbeat. If your new blender lasts 2 years compared to your parents blender that lasted 40 years, isn't that a 20-fold price gain being missed. Somebody get John Williams on the phone and get him on the job.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

The CPI is nothing more than a excuse for the Fed to print.  It’s worthless. 

Food prices are going up, restaurants are changing menus like never before to reflect this increase cost.  My wife is a food stylist and she has never been busier shrinking portion sizes and substituting ingredients from costly to cheap.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Food stylist - is that one of those high paying jobs in the new "service" economy?  I hear sawdust works well...

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Yep, I believe that

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment mr1963
mr1963's picture

Put a steak on your table lately?

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Porn is cheaper.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Probably the only sector turning a profit.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Lies,more lies, and damned lies.............WHY bother to report thi8s crock, even the Sheeple know prices are zooming.

  • Food: +0.2%(meant to say 20%)
  • Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
    RobotTrader's picture

    Gold immediately hit on the news, back below $1,590.

     

    Seems like $1,600 is now resistance, and $1,650 is a pipedream, as the BLS lies get bigger and Wall St. gives their data even more credibility.

    Bernanke proved again to be a total genius.

    Print trillions and completely evaporate all inflation expectations from investors' psyche.

    No wonder the 10-yr. yield is 1.45%.

    No wonder Bob Brinker continues to chortle about the negative TIPS spread, saying that the bond market is pricing in disinflation for the next 10 years.

    The Paul Krugman "Final Solution" is looking more and more likely every day.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Thomas
    Thomas's picture

    Buys the tools at the Fed cover to pull out their tools and do, well, what anybody does with a tool--screw somebody. These pedophiles at the Fed could use a tribunal.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Deep79
    Deep79's picture

    We must be very close to a major top. We got Robo here spewing bullish garbage. Last time he was like this, market tanked and did not see him on here for like 6 months

     

     

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    The Paul Krugman "Final Solution" is looking more and more likely every day.

    Oh, that he would GET it instituted..................................end totally of USD, and PM's thru the roof.

    Wed, 07/18/2012 - 00:39 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
    MeelionDollerBogus's picture

    Gold didn't move anywhere on any news. This entire series of price moves is just a repeat of the price action of 2006. Proof:

    slide 1 2012 06 18 277week roc 02 goldpricemodel 2011 Jan to 2012 Dec 28

    slide 2 2011 dec 27 gold 01 | goldpricemodel | 277 week ROC visual confirmation

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
    Gringo Viejo's picture

    So this means I can still buy a can of coffee for 5 bucks, right?

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment Temporalist
    Temporalist's picture

    You can almost get a cup of joe at Scambux for $5

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
    A Nanny Moose's picture

    Using hedonics, I've subsituted McDonalds lattes, where I used to get Starbucks. See...isn't economics fun?

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment akak
    akak's picture

    Using hedonics, I wonder when the B(S)LS will start officially substituting nudity for the pajamas which were substituted for business attire, and start substituting cannibalism for the roadkill which was hedonically substituted for the horsemeat which was hedonically substituted for the hamburger which was hedonically substituted for the steak.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment Temporalist
    Temporalist's picture

    Pigeon is the new chicken.  Rat is the new rabbit.  Tadpole is the new salmon.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment akak
    akak's picture

    And Obama is the new LBJ, who was the new FDR, who was the new Washington and Jesus.

    Apparently, prices are not the only thing affected by inflation.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
    LoneStarHog's picture

    Yes, but it only makes one cup of coffee.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Taint Boil
    Taint Boil's picture

     

     

    Watermelon on sale at Walmart - America at its best.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
    Jlmadyson's picture

    Where was that drop in electricity.

    Anyhow out this morning: S&P 500 nears ultimate Death Cross: Soc Gen

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
    SheepDog-One's picture

    'Hundreds of billions of QE'? By now with QE having been priced-in about 40 times I'd think QE would have to be about $5 trillion just to break even.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
    LoneStarHog's picture

    EVERY damn food item that I purchase has risen approximately 15% to as high as 30% (e.g. Bush Beans from $.62 to $.80). Many have risen in price and the containers have decreased in portion/size (e.g. 16oz to 14oz)

    Even Ajax Dish Soap I can still purchase for $2.99, but the container has gone from 64floz to 52floz.

    Iams Mini Chunks dog food has gone from a 40lb bag to 33lb bag with only a minor price decrease.

    All of this just since around January!!!!!

    F__K YOU, BERNANKE!!!!!

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment surf0766
    surf0766's picture

    Think how much enjoyment you get out of the brighter can.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
    LoneStarHog's picture

    Actually, I am becoming a much better marksman, since the targets are getting SMALLER from 100-500 yards.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
    A Nanny Moose's picture

    The drought, and general resource depletion are receiving much of the much of the blame. Are oil and corn huge inputs to Coffee, gold, and Pistachios?

     

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment localpacific
    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Bithead1
    Bithead1's picture

    Double taxation without representation.  Don't forget that all the food distributors reduced the size of packaging to offset the 2008 fun.  Now you are getting it twice with food prices rising and the packaging staying the same.  Not even a reach around now.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
    LawsofPhysics's picture

    These folks tend to disagree;

    http://inflation.us/

    Why is the MIT "billion prices project" no longer reporting?  Perhaps they were labelled "terrorists".  Gee, any suprise the educational establishment is under the control of financial houses?

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
    dvsteenk's picture

    Money for nothing and chicks for free will bring us in dire straits

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
    LoneStarHog's picture

    I see where that PAID Federal Reserve Troll, RobotTrader, is paid to go through all the posts and hit the down arrow.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
    Meesohaawnee's picture

    this "market" makes me so want to puke i think i want to go dry hump Silvia Wadwa

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment ItsDanger
    ItsDanger's picture

    When are they going to factor in quality ( & lifespan of product) and subsequent repair/maintenance as part of this measure?   As it stands, the CPI is garbage.

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
    Shizzmoney's picture

    While the result may indeed be a technical recovery, with official unemployment at over 8%, and U-6, the broad measure of unemployment, showing more deterioration of late than the headline figure (it’s now at 14.9%), there was hardly much cause for cheer. Both in 2010 and 2011, improvements in economic performance that were hailed as real recoveries faltered. With youth unemployment high, working young adults saddled with high student debt loads, household formation low due to more multi-generational households and older adults contending with diminished wealth thanks to hits to home prices and retirement savings, consumers were not able to be the drivers of renewed growth unless their wage and employment situation improved in a marked fashion. And that just isn’t happening.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/07/the-sucking-sound-of-air-leaving-the-economy.html

    (The super) Wealthy individuals and corporations want us to believe they've made it on their own, without the help of government or the American people. Billionaire financier Sanford Weill blustered, "We didn't rely on somebody else to build what we built." He was echoing the words of his famous predecessor, the formidable financier J. P. Morgan, who spouted, "I owe the public nothing."

    That's the bull of Wall Street. There are at least five good reasons why the wealthiest Americans need government as much as the rest of us, and probably more.

    http://www.buzzflash.org/node/13605

    Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
    Hype Alert's picture

    With natural gas at a low and fuel dropping as much as it has, the economy isn't catching on and that's with 10% of GDP provided by deficit spending.  The old sayings of paying the piper and saving for a rainy day have been quelled by the media and TPTB, but the reason for the saying cannot be stopped.  Natural laws, 80/20 rule and the free market are like the laws of physics and eventually will prevail.  The more you push it, the more the snap back hurts.

     

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