This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

June Durable Goods: Another Miss

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Those who had read our prediction that the Paris Air Show was a harbinger of weaker durable goods will not be surprised to read that June durable goods just came at a very disappointing -2.1% on expectations of an increase to 0.3%, from 1.9% in May. But it wasn't just Boeing's fault: ex-transportation the number was a subpar +0.1% on consensus of a 0.5% beat, with the May reading revised up to 0.7%. The driver according to Bloomberg's Joseph Brusuelas: "decline in transportation bookings, incl. 28.9% drop in non-defense aircraft orders." And that's not all: "Non-defense ex-aircraft, proxy for capex, points to slower growth in coming qtr." This means that as expected not only is Q2 GDP trending now much lower, possibly below 1%, but the weakness is starting to spill over into Q2 data. As AP reports, "Manufacturing has been the stellar performer in the two-year-old recovery. But activity slowed in the spring, reflecting in part supply disruptions following the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Manufacturing was also hurt by the hit the overall economy took from higher energy prices which dampened consumer demand." Ah, still blaming it all on Japan. And to think in Joe LaVorgna's world it was supposed to be a boost to GDP. Kneejerk reaction: USD plunges, futures down, gold surges to new record over $1,626. On so forth.

Some pretty charts courtesy of Diapason's Sean Corrigan:

US durable transport inventory to shipment ratio. Oops:

US durable Gds orders ex-Transport& Defence are barely changed on the year and still stuck at 2000 levels IN NOMINAL DOLLARS...ROC below shows how marked the deceleration has become:

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:42 | 1497223 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

due to royal wedding....expected...transitory.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:42 | 1497225 youngman
youngman's picture

"two-year-old recovery"....huh????  where the hell is this recovery...oh thats right..it the newly hired workers who work in the Food Stamp application office...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:09 | 1497295 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

The Census provided some jobs LOOOOOOL

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:40 | 1497445 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

The sad truth is your comment is not that far from the truth, the only people seeing any form of recovery are the ones that work for the government. The rest of the poor bastards (AKA the tax payers) are fighting over table scraps.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:43 | 1497226 Bohemian Clubber
Bohemian Clubber's picture

Off Topic: the ECB wants to take a soccer player as collateral...

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/:sicherheit-fuer-ezb-k...

 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:02 | 1497264 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if the player's durable and good, it is not OT

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:43 | 1497227 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

"blaming it all on japan.."

did they forget about george bush?  i thought he was the go to scapegoat

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:12 | 1497300 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

This is the fault of plate tectonics.

Plate tectonics is now considered a terrorist organization and a foreign enemy combatant.

I'm sure our military where find where Mother Nature lives, execute her and bury her body at sea. Of course, along with the photos.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:44 | 1497228 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

We are in a Depression and the morons in the WH know it....... 

They fear monger over the debt ceiling so they have an excuse and someone to blame........

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:01 | 1497261 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

The depression is pissed he was locked away for an extra 2 years due to ben's money printing.  When he comes out of his cage, he's going to destroy everything.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:45 | 1497231 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

That is ok. Stocks will open down and as volume dries up the algos will levitate the market in the end. Hey, if these algos are so smart why do they have a naturally upswing bias?

Low volume tells them to bid stocks higher? It is counter intuitive. Low volume should tell the machines that there is low participation rate and drift stocks lower. Which means there are a lot of people / Funds holding on to lots of overvalued stock.

Just my morning thoughts...as you were Mr. Market.

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:53 | 1497247 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I figure it's the fact that they bait people into overpaying for shares, thereby slowly increasing the trade price.  Which is probably why everyone loves them.  Perhaps I'm totally off base here - would like more input.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:56 | 1497252 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not counter intuitive at all if the plan all along was to program the machines to trade the empty markets higher, mainly focused on ETF's which comprise 401K's and pension funds to keep the sheeple placated and calm and not hitting the sell button, until shearing time when theres a 'NATIONAL ECONOMIC STSTE OF EMERGENCY' oh, say something like a default, where the Treasury swoops in and seizes all those $5 trillion in funds overnite. Genius actually. But no point in discussing this as no one will believe you anyway.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:49 | 1497236 bayoutrader
bayoutrader's picture

It could have been worse. Doesn't that make it "good news?"

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:51 | 1497239 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

the b terminal makes some nice charts.  Want one.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:51 | 1497240 johny2
johny2's picture

As everyone knows, without a housing market ponzi scheme working again, there can not be recovery. Maybe if Europeans would go to war against each other, but as it is, no chance. So the only question is who gets it...dollar or banks? And we all know answer to that question too.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:51 | 1497241 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Ben has stocks' back.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:59 | 1497258 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You sure? Maybe Ben will suddenly sacrifice stocks for bonds. Either way, its all going down soon, except for gold silver and oil.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:41 | 1497450 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

I'm not sure of anything these days other than Ben will print trillions more before this is all over. Stocks may rise in nominal terms but in real we are headed for the rocks. I think.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:52 | 1497244 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Is Joe LaVorgna like the Barak H. Obama of financial analysis? Just askin;)

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:10 | 1497245 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

PMs just went highly erectile

new highs for the junker!

here's for the inventory/sales ratio:  ?Pipeline - The Ventures?‏ - YouTube

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:31 | 1497323 fuu
fuu's picture

Silver pushed to within $0.10 of JPM's closing price yesterday. Oops looks like parity achieved again on the open. JPM gaps down, silver surged a little. See how long this lasts.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:39 | 1497437 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nice ratcheting.  miners a little soft, but catchin a little bid, now.

1621 london morning fix, +8.25 over yest afternoon's.  now, 1627+.  silver chugging along GSR under 40. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 10:48 | 1497767 fuu
fuu's picture

Lasted about 1 hour 16 minutes.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:55 | 1497248 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

 

it's looking good Gentlemen, really good

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:54 | 1497249 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Why do we need durable goods if we all have iPads and a Central Bank Printing press? I thought Manufacturing was a dodo concept now?....

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:55 | 1497250 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

don't worry another coffee company is coming public today.

should save the day.

mmmmm sugar and deep fried white flour. breakfast of champions and obese yanks everywhere.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:57 | 1497254 critical_mass_soon
critical_mass_soon's picture

Is there any correlation in the stock price of JPM and the stop price of silver?

its just an observation but it seems like the stock price is always a touch above it, abit like it won't dare let silver ounce be more valuable than a share of jpm?

we all know about who close jpm is to the whole silver market i wonder if that has anything to do with the current resistance in silver price especially after gold is blowing its top, abit unusual if you ask me.

any thoughts guys?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:41 | 1497451 WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

Silver @ $41.42

JPM @ $41.09

as of 9.34 am

Either there will be a silver raid, or JMP will go on another algo fueled rally to cover the silver shorts.  Either outcome is likely before friday.  The comex colludes with the paperbugs out of self interest.

I want to know

A) What is the spread between paper PM's and bullion?

B) At what point will Comex insolvency, become apparent to the greater market? 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:01 | 1497262 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yep...yep.  Gee, do you think Autonation is a sell today?  If ever there was a fellow perpetually rah rahing the false recovery, it is CEO Mike Jackson.

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:03 | 1497267 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe Mike  can start another IPO 'Tentnation'?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:01 | 1497263 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Wow, maybe today we'll finally have a down day for AAPL??

That will be a miracle.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:04 | 1497275 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You should have bought gold instead of bashing it since $1,000, and you'd be SAFELY up far higher than any of your momo pumper paper. Gentleman Jim sends his condolences.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:12 | 1497306 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

OR NXG and MFN.  mmm 25-30% gains in weeks, and I own real assets with cash flow.  Unlike that tech garbage you hype.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:15 | 1497322 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well we should expect a down day for Boeing at least--now that we know "must balance budget on back of military, must balance budget on back of military." Something tells me "money flow from intellect first."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA&feature=player_detailpage

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:10 | 1497296 MRSAP
MRSAP's picture

Another bad economy numbers...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:14 | 1497319 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

This is bullish because (insert ironic joke about bullishness).

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:55 | 1497510 Cortez
Cortez's picture

This is bullish because the expected Second Half 2011 rebound is expected to be even stronger as orders ratchet up leading into the holiday season.  Time to BUY BUY BUY!!!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 10:56 | 1497825 adr
adr's picture

This is bullish because everyone will be buying their guns and ammo from Amazon and will need some killing music so they will all buy iPods. This of course will be very bullish for the social media sector as everyone will be posting twits and status updates glorifying the day's kill.You need some comfy shoes for running around all day so you'll buy some Crocs and of course nothing goes better with total anarchy than wings and beer from B-Dubs.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:21 | 1497357 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More positive data to suport Bernankes assessment thatb the jobless recovery is picking up steam.  Obama and Biden deserve the award from the banking cartel they represent on their "Summer of Recovery" last year.  Year two is doing great!  This adminstraion is an outright disgrace.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 11:05 | 1497877 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Government has finally learned to lie about how well the economy is doing and to perpetually make it seem like the sky is falling. 

The economy is not stopping Automax from a 20% increase in the selling price of a car or Dupont from raising prices by 17% yet seeing no slack in demand. The same vehicle that sold for $20,000 sold for over $24,000 this time or about $100 more a month in principal payment alone over a 3 year loan. 

The economy is quickly approaching full rubber-band mode regarding inflation. Does the Fed think a 20% rise in the price of a car is transitory? 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 22:36 | 1593241 karmete
karmete's picture

Great!!! thanks for sharing this information to us! sesli siteler sesli sohbet

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 03:47 | 1667103 chinawholesaler
chinawholesaler's picture

Digital Photo Frame
Tangle Puzzle

Beauty Equipment
Wholesale Speakers
Wholesale Bag

Wholesale Frisbee
China Wholesale
China Wholesale

Pen Holder
Wholesale Ashtray
Muslim Products

Silicone Products
Automotive Products
China Suppliers

Wholesale Cap
Garden Decorations
Promotional Gifts

Wholesale Scarf
Pen Holder
Wholesale Racks

Wholesale Furniture
Wholesale Banner
Flash Gift

World Cup Products
Wholesale Clothes Rack
Silicone Wallet

Wholesale Bookmark
Wholesale Album
Vocal Concert Products

Wholesale Shoe
Wedding Favors
Wedding Favors

Wholesale Bedding
Digital Photo Frame
Outdoor Leisure Products

Outdoor Leisure Products
Stuffed Animals
Heating Products

Digital Photo Frame
Wholesale Tellurion
Wholesale Socks

Giveaway Material
Wholesale Cup
Electrical Gifts

Wholesale Bracelet

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!