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June Non-Farm Payrolls +80,000, Missing Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.2%
The June Non-farm Payroll number of 80,000 comes below expectations of 100,000. Private payrolls miss even worse, at 84,000 below consensus of 106,000. Unemployment rate prints at 8.2%, inline with expectations. U-6, or broad unemployment rose from 14.8% to 14.9%. According to the household survey, jobs rose by 156,000 S/A and 1,387,000 Not seasonally adjusted. The worst news is that the number is not bad enough for more NEW QE immediately.
Some details from the Establishment survey:
Total nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June (+80,000). In the second quarter, employment growth averaged 75,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 226,000 for the first quarter of the year. Slower job growth in the second quarter occurred in most major industries. (See table B-1.)
Professional and business services added 47,000 jobs in June, with temporary help services accounting for 25,000 of the increase. Employment also rose in management and technical consulting services (+9,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment in professional and business services has grown by 1.5 million since its most recent lowpoint in September 2009.
Employment in manufacturing continued to edge up in June (+11,000).Growth in the second quarter averaged 10,000 per month, compared with an average of 41,000 per month during the first quarter. In June, employment increased in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000) and infabricated metal products (+5,000).
Employment continued to trend up in health care (+13,000) and wholesale trade (+9,000) in June.
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little or no change.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in June. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime was 3.3 hours for the fifth consecutive month. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
Those not in the labor force rose by 34,000 to 87,992, the second highest ever, although good enough to keep the participation rate unchanged at 63.8%, and above the recent April low of 63.6%.
The June Seasonal adjustment was -1,028,000, just as expected. 2012 monthly seasonal adjustments.
The June Birth-Death adjustment added 124,000, modestly less than in June months of the prior two years.
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Bullish for stocks, because the real economy doesn’t count, its just the fed playing a game…
Here we are new month, another number. We still have an employment problem anyway you want to cut it.
Track the Layoffs/Closings…
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
New York WARN notices also indicate that August layoffs will be three times as high as last month's. Too late for QE though?
QE will, my quess, be at the end of August/Sept for election run. What else is there? Bernanke sits this election out? His guy Obama has to get re-elected or Romney gives him the kick in the ass.
Giving BB the boot is wishful thinking, not foregone conclusion. Especially if BB "helps" Romney win by sitting on his hands.
Let's be clear; "The deceptive "U3" Unemployment index at 8.2%"
The U6 is over 15% and Shadow Stats has the real world number at ~23%
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
What makes you say Obama is Bernanke's guy?
And to think the Vampire Squid increased their proprietary NFP number to 125,000 just yesterday.
The culling of the Muppets continues.
The fed is causing all this unemployment by playing a stupid game, despite the fact that interest rates are so low and they have clearly reached the end of the road, they need to accsept that they have failed.
Just wait until the revision of the revision, of the revision, is revised....
If one manipulates too much, one goes blind.
Gold caught a quick $13 pop......................
This anemic jobs report proves the utter failure of Austerity.
President Obama has been slashing Government spending and reducing the debt and it has not yielded results.
He must propose a $6 trillion stimulus to create millions of shovel-ready jobs.
. . . reducing the debt???????
Yes Paul Krugman, the wonder boy.
thanks Paul, I was wondering how to solve this
He has a Doctor degree, so of course he has answers to all our troubles.
...and a beard
But Doctor, you forgot the stimulating aliens once again.
It's like you're really him! Tell us about the aliens now...
lol? austerity? with a 8%+ running defict? What would you call it if the state tries to balance its budget? I'm aware it's also a tax income side issue (with big corps like Apple shovelling billions but paying fuck-all in taxes), but in general the US government has been doing everything but being austere.
Zimbabwe President Mugabe:"If I had a son, he'd look like Obama."
Where is the "austerity". I see $1.3 Trillion yearly deficits, hardly austerity.
Didn't the POTUS giggle and say I guess there's no such thing as shovel ready jobs. Pretty sure I saw that on tape. If any of you missed it I expect you'll get a second, third and more chances to see it in Romney adds this fall. Watching the POTUS laughing about his failed spending of $870 billion should go over great with the 20 million unemployed.
No QE today but bad enough to continue hope for later this year. This won't be bad enough to spook the market so the vapor rally can continue. I bet the market ends up for the day.
I'll take that bet Fred = and Monday is gonna be worse as attention shifts back to Greece.
Then immediately fell back below $1,600/oz.
http://www.fastcompany.com/1786730/federal-reserve-bank-sentiment-analys...
Futures acting like they were going to sell off either way...
They probably were. EUphoria is quickly being replaced by EUphobia as it dawns on the world that nothing has changed. A PIIG in make up is still a swine.
congrats on being first and with the correct comment.
CNBC: Before I turned it off, Zandi said, "clearly, the recovery is in tact.". Thank goodness! I feel so much better now. He also said that the policy response has been dead on and the people know deep down things are so much better now than they were 3-4 years ago (good thing these guys are not political in any way - just economics, politics have nothing to do with it!)!
Why CNBC has crashed: The content is driven by politics and people know deep down that ir's all a bunch of BS
Zandi and Goolsbee were hatched from the same egg.
From the Fed:
Ben angry! Ben hates crashing stock prices! Ben wants more money printing!
Nice number for equity bears, miss overall, but not enough of a miss for QE hopes.
And don't forget Europe closes in 3 hours! Woohoo! BTFD!!
Unemployment Bitchezzzz!
80,000. Not too hot, not too cold. No reason for QE3. Funny, because goldilocks used to be good for the economy. Now, it's death by withholding QE. Prepare for a barrage of market-supporting rumors today.
What? They couldn't cook the numbers to at least hit the "headline number"? Must be slipping at the propaganda dept.
Its a holiday week.
Are you crazy? We need 250,000 jobs a month JUST to get back to where we were before the 2008 collapse. 80,000? Wow.
By the time of Summer of recovery XXVIII we should be there
@Hopium Dealer
I guess we're both a little crazy since we're discussing a made-up figure from a made-up bureaucracy. The BLS could have printed 250,000 or they could have printed -250,000. No difference. It's all bullshit. The B/D added 124,000 and the seasonal adjustment was ~1,000,000. The number is solely for manipulating political ends and should in no way be taken as a measure of the health of the U.S. labor force (which is in dire shape, BTW). However, if you are worried about our troubled economy, start trying to convert the Jersey Shore crowd to your cause. Good luck with that.
How does BLS and my reply:
A) Tie into somehow me having a personal agenda, "(my) cause"
B) Jersey Shore
Childish much?
Be quiet. we're now conditioned to 150,000 per month. Soon 80,000 will be the new normal
#winning.
Heckuva job, Goldman. Heckuva job.
The BLS number is statistical bullshit. Obozo needs to create at least 200K jobs/mo just to stay even. Today's number might as well have been zero. There are still 50 million people on food stamps and the banks are still broke. QE will NOT help. What a shambles.
in a nation of 300 million plus this is like the proverbial drop in the bucket
Your first sentence is correct without the rest. While it may be BS because it's statistically insignificant.... BUT it's most likely BS because it is exactly that... BS. Everything is made up. If any of you have a Hoover's account... have fun with this little exercise... Search on any subset of companies ($500million+ in NY, NJ, PA, is some subset of verticals)... your search will yield some sort of # of companies. NOW... add one more characteristic... search for companies who have added employees in the previous 12 months. use .01%... basically any company with any net increase in the number of employees will now show up in your search. Here is what you will find... AT BEST... 1 out of 20 companies have added net employees in the last year. You can do the same thing for increases in net sales... same... 1 out 20, maybe... but I found things like 7,000 companies reduced to 13 when I add the qualifier of increased sales. Yet GDP is increasing and employment is increasing? There is no way.
This is one of the best comments that I have read on this topic (the unemployment rate (UR)) on ZH -- ever. The government statistics on the UR are utterly fabricated. I do not understand why the people do not understand that. It ought to be obvious to all.
-- Paul D. Bain
paulbain@pobox.com
Obozo needs to create at least 200K jobs/mo just to stay even.
The Preznit can't do that unless you're suggesting some kind of big-gummit centrally-planned spending program or something.
Lots of commentators were repeating the same shit about the LAST guy, and it was just as misguided then.
last jobs report prior to next fomc on aug 1. that is the sweet spot for bears. bulls now have to wait until ben shows up at that fucking hole in wyoming.
I hate this "in limbo bullshit"- Gotterdamerung already!
But, but, but, Betty Liu says its "not so bad...."
Bloomberg is too focused on trying to make BO and big gov't sound good. Back in the early 2000's (Bush in office) the spin was very different. Less hype and hope. All they had to do was just present the facts and it cut like a knife. RT is gaining traction because all they have to do is present the facts and that's damning enough.
Happy thoughts about jobs from someone who has a job. Try telling this horseshit to the 23 MM in the U-6 category.
EUROPE IS AT 11%!! WHY IS AMERICA SLACKING LIKE THIS?!
It's a fairness thingie. Can't stomp all over EUROPE in all categories, after all.
But it indicates a failure of another liberal policy. Here Stateside, we have youth sports where the adults won't permit score to be kept. It is so unfair to keep score, don't cha' know.
- Ned
{of course, the kids know the score}
{{but they don't play with the numbers as some of the adults do}}
Not bad enough for QE and the market is too near the 52 week high. Actually, it's a disaster for this point in the "recovery" (no, I can't write that with a straight face) but the spin machine is on it.
Maybe not bad enough for more New QE immediately, but perhaps by later today.
CNBC spin in hyper drive:
"there were some silver linings in the report - hourly earnings were up"
"the report was not as bad as it could have been"
well, that will make their 3 viewers happy...
mary thompson has very well toned arms
Ben, Obummer and Geithner.
That Bloomberg and CNBC are propogandists for the corporate state is as clear as can be this morning. An amazing series of performances from their "panels." The panels never discuss how the numbers are cooked, just how it could be so much worse.
2 viewers. i turned it off right after Zandi spewed this additional garbage.....was waiting for Santelli to break one off in Goolsbee for his Bush comments.
And this afternoon, Maria will say,"We're off the lows of the day!"
And they still won't QEIV.
Dive dive dive!
Time to price in QE4?
Once again, ADP is proving it isn't worth a shit.
It truly is astounding they are so wrong so often.
Who pays them to product that data?
Who pays them?...why the same people who make a mint on the post-ADP ramp job of course.
<Once again, ADP is proving it isn't worth a shit.>
but it gets endless media play and is taken for FACT every month.
I am not entirely sure the BLS is any better...it certainly "feels" more correct though, but it's all BS to me.
The real numbers are negative, but that would bring this fucker down.
We can't even afford to start a false flag war anymore.
That's why they used false flag bag, much cheaper. And no wars, honest promise. Only peacekeeping operations and kinetic action.
Oh, sure we can. Just watch.
Yes - by $0.01 per hour! (Was actually $0.45....which can't even afford a piece of gum).
Can't the thing just crash, already? Americans are tired, man.
I just, for once, want to see a NFP of like 10K or something extreme. But that won't likely happen until Romney is president.
So i guess i'll be jus' shouting to my wife when i arrive home from the office......"HEY TOOTS,NO FUNNY MONEY QE3 TODAY HONEY"
GOD! CNBC idiots talking up the crap......imbeciles....Austan Goolesbee got Santellied.....fucking asshole is STILL bringing up Bush.,.....don't these fuckwads have any balls?
If enough people turn CNBS off, it will go away.
QE12 will come eventually...
Not low enough for talk of new QE, so we get a little longer to load the silver bullet and reinforce the silver shield.
hmmm, wonder how the 3 dualing algos (formerly known as "the market") will trade this?
But U6 rose to 14.9%. Start singing "Summertime Blues" at The Fed.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/06/summertime-blues-u6-unemployment-rises-to-14-9-nonfarm-payrolls-grow-only-80k/
One of these days ZH along with Goldman and even Jim Grant is going to be correct---there is going to be another QE.
Nothing to say, just +1ing (green arrowing) all of you guys.
Birth/Death Model: PLUS 124,000 !!! ... Like every month, WTF?!?!?
The thing that pisses me off about the jobs number is that someobody always talks about POTUS creating jobs. This isn't Marxist Leninist / Mao world centrally planned country. POTUS DOES NOT CREATE JOBS. IS THIS Marxist Leninist Mao World now? So stupid. POTUS does notthing but make war.
No he doesn't "create" jobs.
But he does endorse the policies that reduce and restrict year over year profit growth, now down to 5.5% YOY), costing jobs.
He also introduces a level of uncertainty in business that leaves management waiting as long as possible to see what happens.
That is not the government's nor the FED's job though. They are supposed to stay out of business. Where the hell have you been?
The role of government is to create wars (which they have done an outstanding job of), public services (which most of them can be private), and to create a bunch of stupid laws and go around and do whatever they want, while hypcritcally doing the other thing. Ie (saying to cut back on postal services while using free postage),taking bribes from business, insider trading, and viewing porn on the job.
Business is riskaverse, anyways. No matter who the POTUS is.
More for me, less for you. That's corporate thinking in a nutshell.
Not POTUS, LOTUS -Liar of the United States! He's just doing what liars do.
cnbc is such a joke, how can you possibly put a positive spin on this...let's remember how far off everyone was from the actual number, last month GS said 125k, came in 69k, this month 125k, came in 80k, nice work, experts...
Just to get this explained . . .
YOU ARE NOT CNBC's CUSTOMER!
Their advertisers are their customers. Their advertisers inform them that the reason they pay for advertising is to sell their product.
People who are depressed do not buy anything. Nothing at all.
If a roadside billboard sign was all in black and surrounded its advertisement with text about the death of your parents, it's not going to sell product, and that advertiser isn't going to pay for it anymore. It need not say anything negative about the product advertised. It need only be depressing, and that will be that. No more advertiser.
CNBC has no choice but to spin positive. There has been a new phrase that has been invented called "professional journalism integrity" and that means "be professional" and that means SERVE YOUR CUSTOMER.
They won't lie, but you will never get more than the briefest of efforts at "objectivity".
Denninger is an arrogant prick but his analysis here is pretty good imo.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=208221
Every month at these levels we fall 4 months further behind where we should be.
Each month we continue on this path, we lose four months of growth we cannot recover.
The expense of this administration is well beyond the debt numbers we see reported.
Just wait until next month...
Four months behind? That's presuming we don't import workers ... but the USA imports more than 80,000 workers each month. 80,000 new jobs isn't even enough for them.
Romney: Happy days are hear again...happy dance.
Obama: Wouldn't be prudent......one-termer.
Good old GHW Bush. He was a good man. Flew combat missions in WW II and got close enough to the action to get shot down.
Made lots of mistakes, but made them out of patriotism.
QE3 is like the housing recovery ... it's not coming but greatly talked about.
why do we get our panties in a bunch over "data"? really where was the SP yesterday after the June disaster? No data point matters other than what is bennie doing. period. I guess 4 trillion in added debt in the obummer admin just doesnt go where it used to does it?
Fuck me for not shorting APPL at $614 yesterday. Fuck me.
Back to community work in November Barack.
at least by Nov Chicago will be back in the 80s for temps and it won't be a bloodbath on the streets-of course BO will reconsider his position on guns and conceal-carry in IL
You can always fly in and save BO like you did for Benito Mussolini:)
Will feel like 40s in November if BO gets slaughtered.
The size and quality of the U.S. corn crop continues to deteriorate as scorching heat in the corn belt threatens the crop during its critical pollination, or "tasseling" stage.
The amount of the corn crop that is in good to excellent condition keeps shrinking, now making up 48 percent of the crop compared to 56 percent last week and 63 percent the week before.
The USDA data, released Monday, also showed a decline in the quality of the soybean crop to 45 percent good to excellent, from 53 percent last week.
Watch corn prices and all derivatives of corn "stuff"...as unemployment rises eating will become expensive...a new "misery index"....Jobless rate + cost of food.
here in N central IL it is gonna cool off but not much rain-RUH RO! we should divert even MORE corn to power the fatty soccer moms' SUVs now-thanks Durbin and Grassley!
Don't worry, more SNAP action will make sure no dependent goes hungry.
MARKETS PLUNGE AS BAD JOBS NUMBER NOT BAD ENOUGH TO TRIGGER QE3 AT AUG 1 FOMC - MS
Yeah, like Romney'll do the job....
Left/Right paradigm is bullshit. Banksters and big corps decide what's good for the world... Politicians just execute, period!
Romney wants to be president for the same reason Obama did. Monumental personal ambition.
He'll do things differently than Obama. Not necessarily better. Different.
When you're in a disaster, you seek change. Even undefined change. Same thing will be so in 2016, if oil scarcity allows civilization to continue that long.
slaughter its cause you know deep down inside this is not a "market" ...and that whatever bennie and obummer want they will get regardless of the "dater"(as that english clown on bubble vision says) ..dont kill yourself
Thanks for the calming words.
...and the fucking network runs those fucking annoying Volt car commercials...just had the cross eyed blonde on....all the "actors" in those ads are complete dolts.....I bet they vetted the fuckers that they were Obama lovers....every one is an idiot in the ads....
All they need is the Obummer bumper sticker on the car to complete the image.
what's the chances ?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Healthcare + 13,000. What a surprise. Proof of Zorg Economic Theory.
Declare healthcare "broken" then rely on 5th Element logic
Zorg: Look at all these little things! So busy now! Notice how each one is useful. A lovely ballet ensues, so full of form and color. Now, think about all those people that created them. Technicians, engineers, hundreds of people, who will be able to feed their children tonight, so those children can grow up big and strong and have little teeny children of their own, and so on and so forth. Thus, adding to the great chain of life. You see, father, by causing a little destruction, I am in fact encouraging life. In reality, you and I are in the same business
stagnation is the new progress.
going nowhere is the new recovery.
winning the future and moving ahead because the numbers " are not as bad as they could have been."
I keep waiting for Orwell to levitate from his grave, shamble on over to DC and start choking the shit out of the first parasite he can grab whilst hollowing...
"for the last time, 1984 was not meant to be tyranny for dummies, you trough feeding, spineless, brainless, psychopathic wastes of skin".
or something to that effect...
now that would be something worth watching on c-span, wouldn't it?
anyone know if Ben lifted the short ban?
CNBC says "Jobs Hold Steady at 8.2%" like it is a good thing that the falsified number is a reason to buy stocks.
Lying is not a crime unless it is damaging. CNBC is a crime.
U6 up to 14.9.
Rut-roh
80,000 new jobs created ... a number that will be "adjusted" downward in a few weeks. What a coincidence!
The USA imports somewhere around 1.5 million humans each year, two-thirds of whom are coming lawfully, the others arrive illegally.
That's about 80,000 jobs needed for lawfully imported workers each month.
What about creating jobs for the rest of them? Oh! I get it! They're coming for my job!
Food+drinking establish employment went up for first time in 3 mths (but expected for summer)
http://t.co/85MKu6fA
How many parents in their teens, 20s, and even 30s, are going ot tell their kids 6-10 years from now, "So, when I was a waitor during the Obama Administration......"
Also, 1/3 of these jobs have been created...at temp agencies.
http://t.co/983Mjrfx
Only see this continuing. Massachusetts employers, with a young and skilled workforce (in debt), have taken advantage of the RomneyCare Tax by not only offering less health care to employees, but also hiring them as temps so that cost gets put on: their employees.
I'm bullish on earnings!
I love to listen to the "capitalists" on CNBS whining for another QE welfare check. It will make zero difference if QE 14 comes along. It all stops at the banks, nothing for the American economy.
I loved listening to the Goldman guy say on CNBS this morning that, "they don't know whats wrong with the economy." LMAO. and on Liborgate he said, " People need to stop living in the past". I swear to God he said that. Not even 9:00 and I got my laff for the day.
This unemployment rate is the greatest piece of fiction since James Joyce wrote "Ulysses".