With Just 2 Hours Left Until "The Announcement", Here Is A Complete Summary Of What Everyone On Wall Street Expects

Tyler Durden's picture

With just over 2 hours left until 2:15 pm, the time to place your bets (and if one trades with other people's money, bet big: after all we are sure to see a surge in "Rogue Traders" into this Fed announcement as many blow up once the embargo is lifted), is rapidly approaching. To help our readers out, here is a complete summary of what all the key Wall Street analysts believe will happen today. Handicap as you will.

Courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • Bank of Countrywide Lynch: Purchases likely concentrated in 7- to 10-yr sector
  • Barclays: Fed likely to sell $440b of securities maturing in 1-4 yrs, buy $660b in the 5.5- to 30-yr sectors; Recommendations to short 3-yr on the curve and underweight OTR 10-yr were closed in Sept. 15 note
  • Credit Suisse: Expects $360b operation; sees 86% of purchases in the 4- to 10-yr sector
  • Deutsche Bank: Buying likely to be concentrated in 7- to 10-yr sector; Fed has limited ability to buy longer-maturity paper
  • FTN: Baseline expectation is $300b of sales of debt maturing in 0.5 to 2.5 years, reinvestment concentrated in 8- to 30-yr debt
  • Goldman Sachs: Fed will concentrate purchases in 7- to 10-yr sector
  • Morgan Stanley: Fed likely to sell all 0- to 2-yr debt, buy the 8- to 10-yr and 30-yr sectors
  • Nomura: Balance sheet expansion preferable to “disruptive” front-end sales
  • RBC: Fed to buy ~$225b, mainly in the 7- to 10-yr sector, sell in the 1.5- to 3-yr sector
  • RBS: Revised view calls for Fed to buy $135b or $200b in the 27-yr and longer sector
  • UBS: Fed can focus on reinvesting cash flows, buy 10- to 20-yr sector