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With Just 2 Hours Left Until "The Announcement", Here Is A Complete Summary Of What Everyone On Wall Street Expects
With just over 2 hours left until 2:15 pm, the time to place your bets (and if one trades with other people's money, bet big: after all we are sure to see a surge in "Rogue Traders" into this Fed announcement as many blow up once the embargo is lifted), is rapidly approaching. To help our readers out, here is a complete summary of what all the key Wall Street analysts believe will happen today. Handicap as you will.
Courtesy of Bloomberg:
- Bank of Countrywide Lynch: Purchases likely concentrated in 7- to 10-yr sector
- Barclays: Fed likely to sell $440b of securities maturing in 1-4 yrs, buy $660b in the 5.5- to 30-yr sectors; Recommendations to short 3-yr on the curve and underweight OTR 10-yr were closed in Sept. 15 note
- Credit Suisse: Expects $360b operation; sees 86% of purchases in the 4- to 10-yr sector
- Deutsche Bank: Buying likely to be concentrated in 7- to 10-yr sector; Fed has limited ability to buy longer-maturity paper
- FTN: Baseline expectation is $300b of sales of debt maturing in 0.5 to 2.5 years, reinvestment concentrated in 8- to 30-yr debt
- Goldman Sachs: Fed will concentrate purchases in 7- to 10-yr sector
- Morgan Stanley: Fed likely to sell all 0- to 2-yr debt, buy the 8- to 10-yr and 30-yr sectors
- Nomura: Balance sheet expansion preferable to “disruptive” front-end sales
- RBC: Fed to buy ~$225b, mainly in the 7- to 10-yr sector, sell in the 1.5- to 3-yr sector
- RBS: Revised view calls for Fed to buy $135b or $200b in the 27-yr and longer sector
- UBS: Fed can focus on reinvesting cash flows, buy 10- to 20-yr sector
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New Perry ad for what it is worth e.g. 0 (zero)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EL5Atp_vF0
Fuck all the animals offered at the US best in political show. Like picking a horse at a glue factory and expecting that the horse will run.
Seriously stuffed animals would promote more effective change at this point.
Pick the horse that's acting the craziest; it may not run, but you'll have a nice stash of Krazy Glue.
FYI
The USD is fundamentally the worst currency out of the big 3.
Yen-trade surplus, creditor nation
Euro-trade neutral , net creditor
agreed. we just benefit from having the world reserve currency. we can export inflation. when those dollars make their way home... we will be fucked.
You have to take into account other issues.
Japan: about to fall into the (radioactive) sea.
Europe: about to engulf in it's ritualistic cyclic brutal intrawar
Smart money will soon buy CHF and rubles while dumping euros. Many already have.
Smart money dumped the swiss franc the moment they pegged it to the euro. Smart money is in gold and silver... although gold is the safer play. The USA is already engulfed in war in the Middle East, and if it starts to go down in Europe you better believe we'll throw our dick on the table.
Seriously stuffed animals would promote more effective change at this point.
Or
Seriously, stuffed animals would promote more effective change at this point.
If you mean the first, I don't think it matters whether the animals are seriously stuffed or just stuffed. You would be right either way.
If you mean the 2nd, I took you seriously.
Need we really ask what the 'Street-obeisant Ben S. Bernanke's move will be ? The Giant Squid has already divined ( read: prescribed ) the outcome.
So let it be written, so shall it be done.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--4qonI5wubc/TlzgerR-PUI/AAAAAAAAVRA/MPjwJ2p1dO...
puke
Bank of Cunt Tree Wide - Lynch ... yah, total puke
Parry has good hair. Better than Romney's. So double plus good.
noticed that. but then I saw his wife and was shocked a I was expecting a pretty trophy wife.
Someone dipped his wife in acid robo-cop style.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MVolQGvRe8
+1 Funny points
p.s., I, too, like turtles.
Aha! The keys to the kingdom are right there!
Even though the surest way to make a small fortune in the equity market casino is to start with a large fortune, it's no sweat off your sack if you're using OPM.
Other Peoples' Money (mainly taxpayer and 401(k)/Pension/ERISA sheeple money) is what has drives the fractional reserve banking, centrally planned, heavily subsidized (picking winners and losers), 'developed' economies.
Throw in leverage on bets of 30 or as much as 1,300, with an express or implied taxpayer backstop guarantee against losses, and BOOM, BABY, BOOM!
which is not to say your sack wont sweat if your using OPP
If You Owe The Bank A Million Dollars and cant pay, then you're In trouble
But If You Owe The Bank A Billion.......
The taxpayers are in trouble!
Used to be: The bank is in trouble! Yep, times sure have changed. In that, somehow the bankers put the taxpayers on the hook for all the banker's bad bets and we still haven't even noticed! Imagine if there was real mark to market accounting and no bailouts, what the price of real estate would be today. 40% less? 50%?
Those Schweddy Balls!!: http://www.hulu.com/watch/4156/saturday-night-live-nprs-delicious-dish-schweddy-balls
Bunch of 'FED will buy bonds' (monetizing the debt) talk? BO-RING! Thats not QE3, sorry. And also, its illegal, and TREASON I might add.
Wheres the talk of pallets of free money air-dropped over Wall St in the trillions, which has already been baked-in about 30 times over?
Clear as mud.
Clear as mud.
feeling contemptuous
Sold seven figures of long Treasuries into this morning's "buy the rumor" rally. If the monkeys in Marriner Eccles Building come out with a 1.5% target for the 10-year, I'll be crying in my beer tonight. Otherwise, I expect the market will sell the news.
Nice!
The monkeys might push it a little. But it wont last.
Long Balls
Interest on excess reserves, bitchez
http://azizonomics.com/2011/09/20/will-the-fed-trigger-big-inflation/
I bet that Bernanke will release some words, mostly formed into sentences, that the Fed will "do something when appropriate".
Bernanke must announce a full, public audit of the Fed, endorse the gold standard, resign as chairman, apologize for a century of thievery and villainy, then put his head between his legs and kiss his own ass.
Nothing less would be acceptable.
Fix bayonets!
Everyone knows that's all you can do once you are out of bullets.
So the Fed must have promised all these "member" banks the above lsited...now that's what I call accommodation!
Learn Ben's weird old trick to fix the economy.
Seems like the memo has been sufficiently circulated.
If Ben meets expectations exactly, will that be the biggest surprise (ala Rock-Paper-Scissors)?
What surprise? Up until this week, 'QE3' was to be $3 trillion dollars for stocks...now QE3 is rolling over some bond rates? This is not QE3 people, Im sorry it falls far short, this is pathetic.
Whatever it is, it's QE3 if we only believe it is. Big Brother is there for us, we must be there for him.
The sudden EURUSD movement makes me think that a little more than twist will happen
SOCGEN: We're Fucked
Best way to make money on the stock market is as follows:
Go short before every Obama speech
The market starts falling as soon as his lips start moving! Its better than trading the QE effect.
so if the do any/all of those activities, all it does is keep rates low, which is necessary for recovery but not sufficient. If they jubilee some mortgages that might spike market but barring that the shoes are on the fiscal foot for any real help. For one I am suppressing my enjoyment of horror movies and hoping whatever happens buys more time. Time is very precious now..
You seen Cannibal Apocalypse yet? Older movie, very gory...some people even actually believed it was a real snuff film.
In post apocolyptic times will Jim Beam be on the same footing as Maker's Mark or Jameson for bartering/negotiating purposes? Will Captain Morgan's fair better with the younger crowd in relation to the higher ended Appleton rum stocks I own. And where does Petron's stand in the hierarchy of tequilas?
These are the real questions That must be addressed.
It will all be forcibly confiscated and exchanged for Victory Gin, a very low quality liquor of watered down grain alcohol. But, as a bonus you will get a pack of stale Victory Cigarettes and a bag of Soylent Green chips!
don't forget about the chocolate rations!
100 lbs chocolate
in the survival rations...
long silver
Ive stocked up on a few cases of Wild Turkey 101 pints for the apocalypse, I figure it wont be about connoisuers, it will be about kick.
Go low market brands. All it has to do is make your head spin!!
Yep, even plastic bottle stuff. People wont care long as it gets ya drunk.
Dog, you reminded me of a backpack adventure once on Catalina Island. We were pressed for weight, as we had to carry everything on our backs. Knowing that there were water supplies on the island, I elected to bring only 101-proof Rum, which we would mix with water and make our "Early Death".
After accidentally walking through a buffalo's harem (we were stoned, duh) and being escorted out by the bull, who was not happy that his nap was disturbed, I broke out the rum, which was in a plastic bottle. I took a straight gnarl right out of the bottle, no water. I had to shit, piss, sneeze, cough, and attempt to breathe all at the same time.
After seeing me go through this, my buddy John said "Let me try that." Same results.
And WT isn't half bad, anyway - especially in a whiskey sour, which can easily be made with sugar, water, and citric acid.
1.75 liter Cheap vodka in plastic bottles. Doubles as a wound disinfectant and is excellent for cleaning up blood, the empty plastic bottles are easier to carry to water sources.
The bad thing about bartering with booze is that they may go off and drink it, get drunk and decide to come back and just take what you have left. Judgement is the first thing to go.....
Ah, the choice of Russian peasants everywhere. How apropo.
BTW, after the apocolypse the old cheap stuff will be the new good stuff and the new cheap stuff will blind or kill you.
Additionally, cheap vodka is useful for the making of medicinal herbal tinctures, and while grain alcohol is stronger, more pure and recommended for this purpose, it is much more expensive. My experience is the cheap stuff works just as well.
As for tequila, many of the cheaper Mexican brands that are 100% agave are very smooth and much better than the cheapest stuff. You dont have to buy Patron, Don Julio or Cabo Wabo for a good tequila. Cazadores and 1800, for a reposado are good. I like the lighter brands Hornitos and Jose Cuervo Traditional (the one with a cork). I am not a total tequila snob. Once you drink 100% agave, you dont want the other stuff. These brands do still sell in the US at a premium but they are very inexpensive in MX.
Like the other respondents -- physical rules! And whle the cheap stuff might do fine as trade, the good stuff you'll want for yourself anyway. Diversity! Wine cellar not a bad idea either.
Just learn to home brew and make wine. (Thank you Jimmy Carter.)
Get your equipment and buy your yeast supplies now. Minimal investment for maximum return.
northernbrewer.com
Making your own hooch...priceless...
If you're trading in Ireland I suggest you stick to Bushmill's in the North and Jameson's in the South; don't mix that up or you could get a shillelagh upside your noggin'.
SURVEY SAYS !!!!!!!!!!!!!
EEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Welcome to Global Currency Bloodbath Redux: Benny's Twister
It's the end of the world as we know it.
and i feel like singing ...
Two hours til the unelected bureaucrats from the central planning committee tell us how they plan to control our "free markets". What a fucked up farce.
Blessed is he who expects nothing for he shall not be disappointed.
~B.Franklin
Blessed is he who hopes for a big surprise, cause he will get it in the end. B. Frank
Ah yes, "other people's money"...exhibit A: The european-closing-silver-ramp from 1030 - 1100
Bernanke's "announcement" might be a tad more overhyped than Lebron's "the decision."
So who plays Bosh and Wade? Greenspan and Turbo Timmy? If so we ain't winning the title this year.
How is this going to spur lending- rates are already at their lows across the board. The banks want to borrow low and lend long and higher. What about recapitalization?
Or is this just a can kick down the road?
Incredible incompetence on a Japanese scale.
And who is borrowing that can be personally accountable? Nobody wants the "free money."
It wont do Jack shit, more 'carrot and stick', later today we'll be analyzing the word jumble, this is what drives world markets from here on out, vague promises of pink unicorns jumping over glitter rainbows, not now but later certainly theyll appear.
One possibly unintended consequence is in the mortgage REIT's, who make their money by borrowing on the short end of the curve and buying mostly RMBS and CMBS on the long end. A curve flattening is going to significantly reduce their net yield. Lots of div yield chasers in this space.
oil release from SPR is a must - it worked so well last time ?
ask our friends in Saudi for more help ?
< Nothing not priced in is proclaimed; S&P sinks to 1140 by Oct FOMC
< Ben tips hand to $750B QE3 commencing in Q4; S&P closes 1250 today
More carrot and stick, its all theyve got. And Ben wont 'tip his hand' to any number, he doesnt have to.
I know, SD. I just threw in a number to make the choice clearer.
Yep.
October FOMC? I thought the next one is scheduled for November...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm#9662
Remember the "Prime Directives"
1) scare people out of bonds into stocks so Wall Street sharks can eat
2) scare people out of stocks and into bonds so the Government sharks can eat
Rinse and repeat until the entire food chain has been depleted!
Got to keep the herd moving. It is easier to pick them off that way.
assuming the FED buys the short term debt, where is it getting the money to do this?
using debt to buy more debt to buy more time before time runs out and the whole system is exposed for the scam/fraud that it is?
phew that was a mouthful
LOL, we'll create more debt to buy this here debt, see?
Well I'll tell you what I bought this morning, 1,000 rounds of .223 Lake City.
That's some great brass, but I've had poor luck with the commercial remanufactured stuff. OAL all over the place to the point of jamming some guns, crap bullet quality, low accuracy. Some of the bullets just fall out due to lousy resizing. I just get the brass and make my own, and get it right. Then I go and win matches with it. Try Sierra 53 gr flatbase, 748, and a CCI magnum primer...you'll be glad.
Now we're talkin'. How many grains of 748? What velocity are you getting? Any indications of pressure issues?
When my father passed recently, I relied on a relative to keep me up to date on the estate. When I went up to retrieve the gun collection I found that he had tossed all the powder, most of the reloads, and a number of boxes from such collectibles like a S&W 547 9mm, etc.... and gave away all the reloading presses. I ended up with most of the dies and the remaining 40 or so guns but not much else. And what's your take on reloading military brass? I've scored 600-1000lb. batches at auction and just resold it by the pound but haven't taken to reloading it yet...
krispkritter,
If it's 7.62x51 brass it most likely was fired thru machine guns(M60's),steer clear of that.Too much case stretch,and case head growth.
5.56, is so inexpensive this MOMENT, it does not pay to reload it.
My advice sell the brass, and buy already loaded w/profits.
Reloading properly is damned time consuming, and few want,nor have the time to want to learn how.
Pistol, another story, easy as pie.(steer clear of .40cal.) IMHO.
Bstd cals are a lose, lose prop also.
ERGO!
"Fed likely to sell $440b of securities maturing in 1-4 yrs, buy $660b in the 5.5- to 30-yr sectors;"
That's looks like 220B net positive Balance sheet expansion
to me.
QE is welfare for Wall St! Bubbles Bernanke calls it the "wealth effect". Everyone else calls it "inflation" and "devaluation of the Dollar".
Prison for the criminal Chairsatan!
'Wealth effect' for billionaire banksters only. And even thats fleeting, as they need to burn thru ever more faster as the dollar becomes totaly worthless.
More specifically, t's a wealth effect in nominal terms, hiding the ongoing real wealth destruction. QE is basically a buyoff keeping the rich at "zero real growth" in exchange for "sharply negative real growth" for everyone else.
Lets twist again like we did in the 60's..... ooooooh lets twist again like we did with QEeeeeee.
whatever they do, expect the end result to contract the money supply in circulation. 1930 bitchez
Anyone:
What caused oil to surge this morning at 10:30 EST?
When was Barry's speech at the U.N. calling out Abbas (or when was the embargo on the speech lifted)?
weekly EIA oil stats release - draw in crude/ build in gasoline though !
Remember the SNB and the Swiss Franc -- If there's a big smashdown in gold prices 5 minutes before the announcement, it means more QE.
good call.
I believe it has just started ... or not.
'With inflation expectations below what the Board believes to be consistent with its mandate to maintain stable prices, the Fed has decided to engage in an open ended asset purchase program until the unemployment rate reaches levels consistent with full employment or inflation overshoots on the upside.'
bad call.
the Fed has decided to engage in an open ended asset purchase program until the unemployment rate reaches levels consistent with full employment or inflation overshoots on the upside.
Fed buys guns & shoots all unemployed. Either full employment reached or price of a Remington 580 goes to $5,000. Mission accomplished.
Its like concentrating on building a faster track surface for your Ferrari with a blown engine and smashed in a wreck
Go ahead and make the track surface as smooth as possible, camber the corners just-so....makes no difference your Ferrari isnt going anywhere.
Anythign the FEDsters are doing, besides QE3, will be not enough and dissapointing! Rest is NOISE!
Man....markets have been promised a new red Ferrari since February on every bit of disaster news daily....and wheeling out an old rusted VW bug (boring bond rollovers) is supposed to be just as satisfactory....since it was also made in Europe? Tradinjoe, we've entered the bad wing of the lunatic asylum where even the staff dreads going...this sucks.
My balls are up & I have major shrinkage every time the Berneke throws ice in the tub!!!
Ben and Cormac on same day.
How Good Does It Get
Think of a man ...............
Hmmmm..... quite a selction there...
OK... can someone tell Lloyd: I'd like to go with the UBS and Credit Suisse options... and round out the boxed trifecta with the Giants to beat the spread vs the Eagles this Sunday. tia
With Vick hurting the Eagles can just roll out Kol..... Uh oh. The back up is some dude named 'Kafka'. You can't make this stuff up, Eagles fans. Take the Giants.
Amazing Operation Twist was baked into the cake until today.
Now it's what the market expects so say the knuckle heads on bloomberg!!!
Fucking bullshit. OT is done. If that's it. The markets are going to tank.
Bloomberg trying to spray paint the rusted out VW bug bright red and pass it off as a new Ferrari? Hillarious!
Anything short of a statement of infinite printing and complete backstopping all the banks in the world will be a huge disappointment. I have already priced infinity and complete safety in.
Man how can they promise the Holy Grail+Ark of the Convenant delivered for 8 months, then deliver some paper dixie cups and say theyre just as good? Somethings going to throw a tantrum here big time!
Game of chicken is ending. Watch out below.
And I do not even give a shit what the incompetent men say. Do not trade this crap. But remember, usually, first reaction reversed rather quickly. Will wait till tomorrow.
In addition to twist, I think the Chairsatan will establish his 'Right', to conduct an open end QEIII on a selective basis, announced only a week or less in advance. This practice will continue at the behest and whim of the Chairsatan ad infinitum. You may now return to your selected broadcasts of the talking heads, mindless clap-trap, infomercials, old movies, new movies, and documentaries,... please, just refrain from turning off the TV and picking up a book. This is for young people who are in school and need to be trained to read a TV guide.
Remember those rumors about the Bernank soon being gone, with charges following him...I think he's going to be walking on egg shells from here on out.
I could have picked any of them this morning, but GS off 2% despite whatever announcement of the Fed can only mean one thing.
Whatever the Fed will do, it will disappoint. Else GS would be buying up their own stock like WFC today.
WFC is trying to front run the markets. No takers.
I'm not even going to comment on BAC.. FUBAR.
Edit 1253p EST.. GS down 3.5% and falling
Why pay for anything? Just walk away...
Buy today, never pay tomorrow....that seems to be the trend now.
Bernank wouldn't let Market fall.. This pyramid game have
few years left, printing should be extended since no way out
anyways, all it's left is PRINT and PRINT "wisely".. Hey after
all
those guys are manage to pop the Dollar even under those
conditions, while everyone was screaming for Dollar Collapse.
Common Ben, give us couple of Trillion $$$ Kick, don't
worry about those buttheads from GOP :)))
No way theres not a few years left for this nonsense, the game is over now. Actually it was over long ago, and theyre all out of ammo.
Bulls better watch their ass here, because theyve been conditioned into calm Hindu cow status, sitting on 50 P/E stocks theyre certain Bernank will always keep going higher....theres a WHOLE LOT of prime beef on the hoof out there not suspecting a thing.
I'm shorting treasuries. Every time Bernanke does some easing, yields soar. And it goes higher than gold.
According to EURUSD something will come out from FED definitely, GOLD also start speaking looks like.. IMHO.
I predict that Bernanke will stick a trumpet up his ass and play "The Battle Hymn of the Republic."
when betting with other peoples money, why would you ever bet anything but BIG and RISKY
Let's see.Owning short term paper ,the FED can just let their holdings runoof.Are they going to do that with the 27 year paper.Buying long term paper at these rates is one of the most stupid things that a governmant has ever done.The ironic thing is that by doing so the Fed is hoping to jack up inflation.When inflation gets high they will have sell back this long term paper.Any losses will have to be mad up by the TreasuryTthe act of the Treasury having to make up for Fed lossses will completely destroy the independence of the FED.and what will the fed accomplish by doing this. .Maybe 15/100 of a basis point lower in rates.At the same time it will bankrupt all but the richest seniors,bankrupt all public pension funds in the country by forcing them to assume lower rates of return and actually increase unemployment because of seniors being forced to work longer
What really should be done is that the Treasury should have masssive long term bond issuance at these astoundly low rates
Market Up?
Market Down?
Survey says...
Up, regardless.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vTjTDl-FHQ&feature=related
alex bullhorn jones and max keiser blame the problems on wallstreet on those evil protestants. yep folks, its those evil wascally wasps that are doing all of the mischief....gads, what liars these people are............
What will be said? Effectively nothing - when in a raging shit storm, it is best to keep your mouth shut...
Looks like FTN got the best tea leaves on what Uncle Ben and the FoeMacs would play last for this set.
Looks like Mr. Market was looking for a bit more than a $400B twist, but there is still just over an hour to go, and that last hour has been a bitch this past week.
http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/09/21/america-and-europe-are-on-the-verge-of-disastrous-recession/?#axzz1Yd2wsfXN
Ya think?