Just As Predicted, Initial Claims Miss Huge, Yet Magically Improve

Tyler Durden's picture


Recall what we said less than an hour ago: "what will most likely happen is a print in the mid to upper 380,000s, while last week's number will be revised to a 390K+ print, allowing the media to once again declare that the number was an improvement week over week. In other words, SSDD." SSDD it is: last week's 386K number was revised to 389K, meaning the massive miss relative to expectations of 370K last week just got even worse. This is the 10th week in a row of misses to the weaker side and the 16th of the last 18. And while this week's miss was whopping as usual, with expectations of 375K being soundly missed after the print came at 388K on its way back to 400K, the media can sleep soundly because the absolute lack of BLS propaganda means that the sequential progression is one of, you got it, improvement. In other words here is what the headlines in the Mainstream Media will be: "Initial claims improve over prior week." In fact here it is from Bloomberg: "U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 1,000 to 388,000 Last Week." Absolutely brilliant.No propaganda. No data fudging. No manipulation at all. Just endless laughter at the desperation.

As the lower pane shows, 16 of the last 18 weeks has seen misses to the upside (worse) for claims are at the year's highs...

Our aggregate measure of all claims has now risen gently for the last month...

and the 4-week average of claims is now the highest of the year and has risen the most since May of last year in the last 3 weeks...

In addition, as we warned last week, the 99-wee cliff is starting to affect more and more people, and while 60K total dropped off EUCs and extended claims and are thus permanently off the government dole (in the process reducing the labor force as well and lowering the unemployment rate), this number will hit a combined total by June as the cliff hits nearly 3/4 of a million people.This is about $10 billion in lost purchasing power for the year.

Finally, for C-Grade "disruptive" HuffPo lites out there, here is what propaganda looks like pure and simple: presenting the presidential year claims revisions, courtesy of John Lohman.

So, once again, where is the recovery? In the manipulated data? Or the quality of the hopium spewed forth by the pro-administration media?

Our only question is whether the recently unemployed Colombian hookers made US initial claims last week.

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Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:42 | 2376153 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

I'm not even sure how you can argue that this data isn't propaganda. It's so blatantly obvious at this point. 

You'd have to be in a coma to not see the game here. 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:49 | 2376191 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Cue Robert Brusca

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:03 | 2376238 LongSoupLine
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0900...cue Cramer to go into a distracting, "coke like", saliva spraying rant on how "AAPL is an investment, not trade".

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:20 | 2376299 fuu
fuu's picture

Robert Brusca strangely quiet after the revelation that Rubber Scrota is an anagram of his name.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:52 | 2376375 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Comerades, comerades, you protest way too much. Here in the USSA we tell you what the data say. We are your gloriously elected overseers, er, leaders. Trust us with our numbers. Are they different than last week? No, no, no. We've always been at war with Eurasia...we have a nice little camp for you so that you can get re-educated...

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:01 | 2376233 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

dont forget aggregate demand....UPS profit down, Exxon misses etc., higher energy flowing through, demand being destroyed...those temp jobs won't hardly pay for a months fuel use, more profitable to claim unemployment

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:05 | 2376247 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


"It's so blatantly obvious at this point."

Thats the kind of actions people should fear, the overt public ones. They prove BIGOV doesn't care anymore, and understands that the GENPOP don't either.

"You'd have to be in a coma to not see the game here."

Only to those INTERESTED.

The GENPOP has minimal interest, at best, regarding what BIGOV does.

The reason is we/they have been trained that their actions have little effect on the machine. That is pointless to piss and moan because in the end it just leads to frustration.



Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:58 | 2376257 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

"...when the public realizes that it is being deceived, a feedback loop is created in which trust is broken and even the truth, if it can be found, is no longer believed. The United States is dangerously close to that point."

 (/from "Currency Wars", by James Rickards)

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:56 | 2376388 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

They can attempt to fool the masses a little while longer but the unintended consequences of their lies and filth will be seen very shortly...

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 16:32 | 2377955 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

But not before the Maoist gets anotheer 4 years

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:12 | 2376439 tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

Its only blatantly obvious to those who are aware of the matrix...


The other 97% see a single headline like Bloomberg's jobless claims improved headline, never question it  and think everything is sunny even though the storm clouds of reality are dark and angry and oh so obvious if one just LOOKS and uses COMMON SENSE


//97%  of the people is likely optimistic, but you know its the only glue that keeps me together when it comes to things like this - hoping there is more than a handful of folks that actually GET IT

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:43 | 2376155 pepperspray
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Fox... BREAKING NEWS: Jobless Claims Fall Less Than Expected

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:45 | 2376169 green_dreams
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Faux News...

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:16 | 2376214 GetZeeGold
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Oh good....the crap level is falling....but it's still pretty crappy.


Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:21 | 2376303 fuu
fuu's picture

It's all Faux now.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:56 | 2376216 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Why in hell would that headline come from Fox?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:01 | 2376404 semperfi
semperfi's picture

FOX has sold out. Napalitano ousted. Hannity's days are numbered.  FUCK FOX - they are now just another MSM shit hole

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:56 | 2376860 GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

Hannity is a fucking intolerable idiot!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:24 | 2376310 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Barry made Ruppert an offer he couldnt refuse, moderate or get an FCC enema..... Choice was really simple.....

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:28 | 2376770 MassDecep
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Fox only exist as the opposing paradigm, distracting the sheeple in division. Divided we shall surely fall….

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:43 | 2376156 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And APMEX gets knocked offline.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:57 | 2376219 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



It's just some tech over at JPM screwing around.


Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:06 | 2376251 LongSoupLine
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It's just some tech over at JPM screwing around


Cue evil wicked witch of west laughter from Blythe

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:06 | 2376252 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Physical Supply Information Tricks 4 & 6 digits for APMEX



Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:44 | 2376158 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Bloomberg is getting even worse than CNBS. Guy on the radio yesterday insisted there was something wrong with the durables number, he wasn't sure exactly what but it was definitely "unreliable" lol... 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:55 | 2376644 Styles9002
Styles9002's picture

Was that by any chance eternal optimist Mike 'Mr Potato Head' McKee?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:44 | 2376159 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

Probably a green day, then.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:44 | 2376160 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

One should be able to weekly revise their checking accounts the same way, no?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:50 | 2376838 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Hell with that, I want Ben's job.  :)

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:44 | 2376162 euphoria
euphoria's picture

fuck the msm

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:47 | 2376180 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fuck all the sheeple who buy their propaganda blindly and allow this crap to go on.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:53 | 2376203 Popo
Popo's picture

Yes, but the reality is that it's getting worse. And if someone tells you it's not getting hotter and the temperature keeps rising -- even a stupid sheep is going to figure it out they're being cooked at some point.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:55 | 2376209 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Yes, probably at the point that someone is applying the glaze and poking a fork in your ass to make sure you're cooked through. WAY too late.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:08 | 2376266 pods
pods's picture

I got freaked out when they told me to hold this apple in my mouth.


Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:54 | 2376205 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Well most of the sheeple that buy this shit aren't investors.  HFTs have the luxury of LITERALLY being brain dead.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 14:04 | 2377374 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

SeverinSlade,define investors.a lot of us are little guys with 401/403,enforced investors.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:46 | 2376174 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Have you ever comsidered that it's just sheer incompetence? Maybe they really are brain-dead stupid. It would have different implications than the more likely case that they are malevolent propagandists.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:51 | 2376196 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

No..it's intentional..

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:51 | 2376198 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Unless the BLS shares their offices with the SEC, then no, it's blatant.  Only three year olds or tranny porn addicted sociopaths are that incompetent.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:54 | 2376206 GoldenTool
GoldenTool's picture

If it was incompetence it would have to go the other way once in a while.  It never does.  100% is a hard figure to hit.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:06 | 2376423 worbsid
worbsid's picture

I think the BLS gets most of the data in time and that's what they go with on Thursday morning but as the rest of the data comes in and they revise.  The problem is the Thursday deadline ... must publish.  It is the media that gives the big BS headlines to the numbers.

Now do I think the administration likes it this way? Of course, so it won't change. It seems there is some blaming the messinger here on ZH?   

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:19 | 2376460 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Nice fairy tale, but if that were the case, statistically speaking, the revisions would go the other way once in a while, wouldn't they?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:29 | 2376511 worbsid
worbsid's picture

These are UNemployment numbers additional data is more unemployment. I am surprised the number is not 'always' greater rather than 18 out of 20.


Of course this idea does not fall into the realm of conspiracy so it is not so interesting.  

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:48 | 2376176 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The Obama reelection campaign will eventually have a political ad saying something like this: "Initial Unemployment Claims have fallen for 87 weeks in a row. Vote for Obama." OK, I pulled that 87 out of thin air. But if they can proclaim falling unemployment rates by ignoring the long-term unemployed, why doubt they will also ignore the upward revisions? It's not like the cowardly GOP opposition will actually try to dispute the 'facts', or that 'facts' would even matter to most voters.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 09:59 | 2376398 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

Who supposedly is the "opposition party"? We have the Obamacrats and the Lite Obamacrats....I hear very little that contradicts the continuing stream of lickspittle coming from the mouths of the Obamacrats....

We need the Real Slim Shady to Stand the F.U.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:47 | 2376178 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I'm getting tired of having to explain the blatant propaganda that spews out of the BLS every fucking week.  I seriously feel like I need to draw a picture with crayons for my friends and family.

The idiot sheeple continue to believe that the economy is improving.  If one sorts through all the bullshit and looks at UI figures over a longer time frame (monthly vs weekly) one would easily see that UI has been going up for 2+ months...Yet thanks to the bullshit from BLS, Bloomberg, CNBS, etc. have been saying over that same time frame that UI has been "better than expected."

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:47 | 2376181 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

How is 2012 not merely 2011 2.0?

It is funny, was watching Frontline (PBS) which is doing a 4 hour special on Wall Street and politics. Looking at years before 2008, the crisis and the aftermath. They interviewed one of Bush 43 speech writers, and he basically said how they were under "orders" to put happy economic data/propoganda in speeched. And when the list got smaller and smaller in 2008, they were told to ignore everything bad and focus on how resilient the US economy was.

Propoganda meant to placate the masses.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:48 | 2376185 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You watched a 4 hour PBS special? omfg

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:55 | 2376208 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Shit, I can't listen to 5 minutes of NPR without falling asleep at the wheel.  It's seriously worse than listening to radio play by play of golf.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:59 | 2376227 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I get the heaves as it passes over NPR as I'm turning the dial.


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