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Kashkari Punks CNBC And Joseph Cohen: Compares Business TV And Sellsiders To "Jersey Shore" And "Desperate Housewives"
We usually mock Neel "get me a napkin" Kashkari. This is not going to be one of those times, because in one of the better essay written on the topic, the Pimco equity strategist and former Hank Paulson right hand (fall)guy makes a mockery out of anyone and everyone who tries to predict the future, wth an emphasis on CNBC (not surprisingly considering the relentless barrage that the Comcast fin-comedy channel has unleashed toward Bill Gross in the past year) and that seer of seers, prognosticator of prognosticators: A. Joseph Cohen. Kashkari's take home: "In December 2007 sell-side equity strategist Abby Joseph Cohen predicted the S&P 500 would climb from 1,463 to reach 1,675 by the end of 2008. Given the brewing financial crisis, this was a bold call. In fact, the crisis dramatically worsened and the S&P 500 ended 2008 at 903. As the U.S. crisis recedes into memory, people have moved on.... If we’re right – and neither PIMCO, nor anyone else, can accurately predict the level of the stock market at a certain date in one week, one month or one year – why do so many sell-side analysts (and a few investment managers) make such predictions? And why do we pay any attention? I will answer my question with a question: Why do millions of people watch professional wrestling, “The Real Housewives” or “Jersey Shore?” It makes for entertaining television." And the stab right at CNBC's conflicted little heart: "My hope from this piece is not that you stop watching business television. I certainly watch regularly and I also participate, sharing PIMCO’s views. I think it is a unique medium in which to follow markets and quickly hear a variety of perspectives on important topics. My hope is that it becomes a little easier to distinguish thoughtful commentators discussing knowable economic topics from entertainers throwing darts." Congratulations sell-side Wall Street, and their number one media venue to present senseless permbullish biased forecasts - you have just been Punk'd.
Full Kashkari letter (source)
Known Unknowns:
- ? We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments about the global economic outlook.
- We also believe managers can make reasonable judgments about asset classes over the long term and, through rigorous bottom-up research, develop an edge regarding the outlook for individual companies.
- However, the market as a whole is much better at aggregating all the information that could affect any of the thousands of companies in the stock market than any investor could possibly be. Hence predictions of where the stock market will close on a given date are likely to be wrong.
- In 1969 quarterback Joe Namath boldly guaranteed his underdog New York Jets would beat the Baltimore Colts to win the Super Bowl. An audacious prediction, when Namath successfully led his team to beat the Colts he ensured his place in sports history.
- In 1961 President Kennedy called for the nation to land a man on the moon and return him safely to Earth by the end of the decade. At the time an American hadn’t even orbited the Earth, let alone made it to the moon. Considering today it takes almost a decade just to design a new rocket, Kennedy’s call to action from virtually a blank sheet of paper was truly a “moon shot.”
- What was the name of the pastor who predicted the world would end on May 21, 2011? I can’t remember either. I’m sure I would remember had the world actually ended. (Well, maybe not, but you get my point.)
- In December 2007 sell-side equity strategist Abby Joseph Cohen predicted the S&P 500 would climb from 1,463 to reach 1,675 by the end of 2008. Given the brewing financial crisis, this was a bold call. In fact, the crisis dramatically worsened and the S&P 500 ended 2008 at 903. As the U.S. crisis recedes into memory, people have moved on.
- Global economic outlook. We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources on global economic activity and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments for what the future is likely to hold. This is complicated by changing global dynamics and sometimes unpredictable politics. But a robust economic framework can yield real benefits for investors.
- Relative value among asset classes. Looking at the current prices of securities, such as P/E multiples, dividend yields and expected earnings growth for stocks, and spreads and yields for bonds, in the context of the current economic environment, managers can make reasonable judgments about the overall expected return from asset classes over the long term. From this perspective, managers can determine which asset classes they believe will provide the best risk-adjusted returns over time. Stress testing these assumptions against a range of economic environments is important.
- Outlook for an individual security, be it a stock or bond. Through rigorous bottom-up research, analyzing financial statements, meeting with management, speaking with suppliers, customers and competitors, we believe managers can develop an edge regarding the outlook for individual companies. We will often research a stock only to uncover no special view; we let a lot of pitches go by before we find a stock we like in which we believe we have found an edge.
However, innovation, business expansions and turnarounds take time. While investment managers may have confidence in a company’s growth plans, whether that expansion takes one quarter or one year to bear fruit can be hard to know. Hence, taking advantage of fundamental research often requires lengthy holding periods. We generally expect to hold stocks for three to five years.
- The level of the stock market on a particular date in the future. Stocks receive cash flows last in the capital structure, so any new information that can affect instruments senior to equities can also affect equities: Political events. Economic events. Interest rate moves. Industry dynamics. Management changes. Product innovation, etc.
Equity prices are continuously updating to reflect the constant stream of new information that could affect the stock. As described above, we believe we can get to know individual companies well through deep fundamental analysis. But the market as a whole is much better at aggregating all the information that could affect any of the thousands of companies in the stock market than any investor could possibly be. Think of an individual trying to compete against a supercomputer that is composed of an almost infinite number of microprocessors working in parallel crunching vast amounts of data as it pours in. The computer isn’t perfect and may not have wisdom, but it has a huge advantage over the analyst. In the short-term, equity markets contain the bulk of available information that should affect stocks.
As a result, predicting where the Dow will close on a given date is like trying to predict where ocean waves will splash against the Newport Beach pier at a given moment in time. While oceanographers can tell us the general time and average level of high and low tide, they know the natural dynamism of the sea limits their precision to forecasting trends and averages rather than point estimates. We believe the same is true for forecasting the stock market as a whole.
If we’re right – and neither PIMCO, nor anyone else, can accurately predict the level of the stock market at a certain date in one week, one month or one year – why do so many sell-side analysts (and a few investment managers) make such predictions? And why do we pay any attention?
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Just Stop Watching CNBS
Kashkari has ot exactly right
I junked you mainly because you misspelled 'it'. Unconscionable in our rarified intellectual atmosphere.
Besides that, giving this putz any kudos considering the shit he helped get us in.
"rarefied intellectual atmosphere" = "this putz" = "the shit" - brilliant, I must say, just brilliant.
..and I junked you because punctuation goes "inside the quotes."
not in the UK...
Touche!
To be honest, I had to look it up.
I get stuck on "ot" all the time and "ov" is a total bitch to spell.
Kashkari can’t handle real pressure, and thus after his treasury stint he lived like the Unabomber out in the woods (seriously). Would you trust an ex-treasury scam unibrow guy living like the Unabomber to give you stock advice? i wouldn't.
When the going gets tough, Kashkari runs to the woods and hides. If he had any honor, he'd commit suicide like they do in Japan (or he'd be killed as they do in China to scam banksters). If Kashkari really wanted to do the world some good, he would help prosecutors bring to jail Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, etc due to his knowledge of the many illegal activites during the TARP/etc bailout.
Could do the world a big favor by wearing a brown paper bag over his ugly mug - maybe borrow one off Caboosa Cabera or Bartaroma.
I wouldn't trust anybody coming from 'the cartel.'
"When the going gets tough, Kashkari runs to the woods and hides. "...I can totally relate to the man...whether you like him or not, sometimes after going through a crazy hectic time in life and/or when you have worked in an environment where to do the right thing is still wrong, getting grounded is important. It's not hiding at all...it's about having the balls to say I can't do it all and I need a time out to clean out the shit...Nothing better than a stint in the woods with no tv and chopping your own firewood to get you there. I know, I've been there and back and its the best medicine I've ever taken. Now as far as Paulson goes, I'm not so sure (Congress had the chance ot reign him in and didn't...he did what he thought best under the circumstances to keep the world from melting down financially) but with respect to Bernanke, I'm in agreement.
But, but... Dick Bove is saying US banks are a "bargain", and that the market is "nuts" for not buying them.
Speaking of football, in other bread and circus news:
On November 6, Penn State banned Sandusky from campus. The Creamery ice cream shop on the Penn State campus subsequently removed from its menu the "Sandusky Blitz": a "banana flavored ice cream with chocolate covered peanuts and caramel swirl".
This coming from a chump extraordinaire.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8e38p2g9UQ
'Heh heh heh. He said Creamery.'
How apropos.
Are you sure? I thought it was vanilla with old wrinkled bananas covered in fudge?
Naked emporers bitchez! /ZH gestalt
Just another good example of why CNBS is laughable.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/business-cycle-trends/
(Please let there come a day when a guest on this morning show stands up and smacks the shit out of Joe, Steve, and that little puke from dealbutt dot com)
Sorry for the rant.
Never be sorry for telling the truth when it comes to the CNBC booble heads. Yes, I meant booble heads.
I am waiting for Merridith Whitney's day to tell Joe & Michele to Go to Fucking Hell.
After Erin Burnett left, there's really no reason to anyway.
Geeze. How much BS am I supposed to swallow?
When the ship starts to go down suddenly pretend you weren't part of the original fucked-up crew. I know, all of a sudden he got religion. Where was he oh lets say since 2008? Answer: collecting a fatter paycheck until it becomes inconvenient due to the magnifying glass.
You know the end is near.
And the genius also just gave us this one: "As the U.S. crisis recedes into memory"
Once again Proving Why OWS is protesting - these people Do Not Get It.
The beginning is near.
The Dax giving up 6,000 again is not a good sign for the bulls.
We have decoupled from both Europe and reality.
The truthiness is strong in this one...
he's just pissed casue he overheard the ancohrettes on CNBS making fun of alien like appearance and so decided to trash them
After the blowup in USDJPY, Kashkari is reconsidering a career in journalistic satire? If he continues like this, he might be hired full-time by the NY Times with his own dedicated column.
or the WSJ might pick him up.
I speak from my personal up close knowledge of WSJ.
I can't say much more on how I have come to understand how they 'do things.'
You mean CNBC is not a sitcom? I never knew
It's the Seinfeld of the financial world, a show about nothing.
One of the great mysteries is why AJC still has a job. She must be flashing some leg around the office ;)
She's so hot
Ewh! Thanks for the visual...I just threw up!
Still living off the '87 call.... Plus their older clients like the way she speaks- pretty much like one of those old Disney World robots- very life-like......
What about the Kardashian's? Won't anyone think of them?
Piigs
I especially like the one where the young blond anchor gets knocked up by the senile old man from Omaha. My favorite episode
that was "lol" funny.
Good for you mr kashkari
Heresy!
Dennis Kucinich to Neel Kashkari
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evpFtFfPWP8
"Is Kashkari a chump?" Congressman Cummings!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8e38p2g9UQ
Kashkari is a FAIL GUY who swallowed his morals and sucked Paulson dick while he was **** the American People with TARP. Karshkari's whole career stems from his Treasury position and there he showed he didnt have the moral fortitude to resign in opposition. How anyone would listen to this guy without contempt is beyond me.
For the record, I did not support the bailouts...that being said, Kashkari helped keep the world from falling apart financially. The failings of the program should be directed to congress...deregulation and repeal of Glass Stegal, not putting any conditions on the TBTF banks with TARP and passing a toothless FinReg bill authored by to of the biggest bank assfucks (Dodd and Frank)...the TBTF banks are bigger and stronger today (thanks to even more lax rules) than they were at the beginning of the 2008 crisis...then there is our President and his appointments: Geithner, Bernanke and Holder...Do the TBTF Banks have 4 better allies? Name them!
obama business channel
Why do you think most of the babes on CNBC have big titties, or are reasonably attractive???? Because there is NO OTHER REASON TO WATCH IT. Big-time wrestling is more genuine than financial media. LOOK WHO FUCKING BUYS THEIR AD TIME!!! WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU EXPECT?
I sit around all day and watch CNBC while doing Google searches and texting on my iPhone. What else really matters in life?
Skittles and beer.
Skittles and Starbucks for breakfast. Beer and McNuggets for the close. I usually celebrate with cheese fries and bacon when we cross back and forth over Dow 10k!
I luvs the McNuggets slathered with ranch. Mmmmm.
CNBC ... the Kardashians of the financial industry.
Even the cartoons are getting Academy Awards...like AVATAR....which I switched off 15 minutes into the movie. The stupids are breeding in record numbers. That is why millions watch junkfood TV for hours on end. There is a plan to dumb down the planet for the purpose of easier manipulation.
What do you mean there is a plan , it has already been done .
Rainman,
Easy manipulation to where all herds are eventually led.
http://youtu.be/79HLnTPxMho
Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.
Marcus Aurelius
Looks like Kashkari is carrying a sock full of quarter rolls.
I disagree that the Jersey Shore or anything to do with the Kardashian Kunts is "entertaining". CNBC is on cable and that hasn't been in my budget since the 2008 fiasco. The CNBC video clips I can watch for free on the Inter-Tubes are enough to convince me that they are scam artists like that Cramer asshole.
Until I placed the only tv I have ever owned(sadistic gift) in the attic 3 months ago. I would catch myself watching CNBC with mortifying disbelief, partnered with coping fueled laughter.
The alien comments are slightly just considering CNBC must be from another planet. Not mine, earth, I am certain. Cramhole is not even a sphincter worthy entity.
I don't know if it's because I'm tired today or just because I have a twisted mind, but I swear when I first saw this I read "dwarfs" in place of "darts".
Well you may be onto something. Dwarf throwing may save the economy according to one state representative:
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Senator-Wants-To-Legalize-Dwarf-Tossing...
Off topic, but hard to resist commenting: Sarkozy tells Obama Netanyahu is a "liar"
Sarkozy said he "can't stand" Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
"You're fed up with him, but I have to deal with him even more often than you," Obama replied, according to the French interpreter.
http://news.yahoo.com/sarkozy-told-obama-fed-israeli-pm-092347721.html
You can't touch cnbs, they spray teflon all over bods every morning.
All the MSM is now blowing out foolish opines. OPines are like buttholes and they all stink. THough you get shunned when you talk to someone about the real issues that are opine influenced. But it seems to totally acceptable to spew bullshit on the tube.
Stock market opines should go with talking about religion, polidicks and sex. Second thought, lets replace sex.
No one can predict the future because it just hasn't happened yet.
i can:
99% of us have a 50% chance of going to hell!
1% of us are going to hell!
No, those come under the branding of certainties. It is not future predicting to determine you will die within your lifetime. Last itme I looked at the technicals, it stated 100%. You don't know when in the future unless by your own hand.
The market doesn't not have certainties, either. It is future predicting and just hasn't happened yet.
No one can predict the future because it just hasn't happened yet.
And yet your own assertion, in and of itself, is in fact a prediction about the future.
:D
Looks like the robots are gaining control of the market again. They should be churning it higher any time now. Can't wait for the 3:00 rumor to give us a triple digit gain. I love free money.
I tend to notice the 'breaking news' around 2pm. Gives CNBC that 2 hours to stretch the market after that 2 martini lunch. Buncha fuckin' cheerleaders........all'em.
Becky Quick takes Oracle dick.
Fuck this Cash N' Carry guy. After the shit he pulled at treasury, he should be black balled from the industry and asking me if I want fries with that. Instead, here he is back again puking up financial garbage for the world to digest.
Punk this (OT):
OPEC's secretary general says members will cut supply to accommodate Libya, adding that Iran's attitude is positive for December meet (RAN Squawk)Gartman as "expert" guest on Fast Money today... had no idea new Comex positions opened at the new initial margin rate (which is the old maintenance level) would not be affected once rates revert to pre MF levels... quite the expert!
The proverbial "empty suit!"
its not hard to be a cheerleader for the government run stock market. the first rule of gambling (investing) is never make a bet you can't collect on. the world is going to end next week, bet you a hundred dollars? take all of that you can get.
second rule of a winning gamble (investment) is that after you make the right call, you have to get out of the casino with their money. (think LTCM, they had the bet covered but the casino didn't pay up)
and if you have a fistful of put options the day the bid dries up, what makes you think there will be anything to collect, or anyone to collect from?
the bulls have you when it becomes widely accepted that the people on the other side won't honor your paper when they lose. or they'll simply inflate away their obligations.
you have to be a sucker to go short under the circumstances, but what else is there? Marc Faber thinks they can extend and pretend for five or ten more years. do you want to lose the market gains (not advocating, just saying from their position), even if all the market can do is track inflation?
eventually a new economy will replace the old one, and people will just stop using the wall street finance system. it might take years, and if you are patient and you short and hold you could be guy who gets to turn out the lights. companies disappear, the race goes to the slow and steady investor who realizes, in the end we're all dead, and i hope i outlast my shorts. you can outlast your money if you prefer, but my shorts look better than your money. just saying.
That is a reality far beyond the minimal overview ability of most.
People act as if they know right NOW, when that NOW, is already history.
What is with the continuing image redemption thing? Neil Kashkari will always be Paulson's fluffer...period. That nauseating profile in the Washington Post ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/04/AR2009120402016_pf.html ) of his life at his cabin was comical, and now this is supposed to convince us he's an "outsider" or common sense man of the people somehow?
This is actually an interesting piece he wrote, and I have no doubt regarding his intelligence. In the end though, he really only exists to serve someone else. Another napkin for Neil, please!
Based on recent encouraging developments in Greece and Italy I am raising my year end target on the S&P 500 to 1325
-AJC
It reminds me of the War of the Worlds. Orson and co. showed everyone just how easy it is to game them. If you watch a show that is supposed to be about real issues and real money, but the parties are all actors paid to say every single word by the advertisers and any one else with a buck, (like MF) you deserve to be taken to the cleaners, and you will be. Tell us, how do you figure out who's lies favor you?
LOL- Pimco finally give you an assignment, Neel?
please read this
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By: Bob Pisani
CNBC Reporter
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Well, at least we have moved pastGreece. Now we need to bring in theIMF and China.
Trading volumeis light today (Monday), for good reason: this can still go either way. We are not really falling, just moving sideways.
We need a credible plan to ring-fenceItalyand Spain. If we get that, markets will move up and stocks will start to trade on fundamentals.
The big worry: Italiandebt is starting to trade at junk bond levels. Italian 10-year yields passed 6.6 percent, again at new highs. The Vanguard High Yield Corporate Fund, one of the largest junk bond funds, now yields 7.1 percent. (Check sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) here.)
At this point, the main issue is whether Italy will be able to roll over its coming debt (the next bond auction for Italy is November 10). If not, they will have to go to the EU or the IMF for assistance.
The concern is that the tools available are not sufficient to address the crisis. This is what Europe has now:
1) a very smallEFSF that does not look like it is going to get big outside contributions,
2) modest bank recapitalization, and
3) bond purchases from a reluctantECB .
These are the options for Europe:
1) expand the EFSF
2) use and expand the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) (essentially a cheap line of credit)
3) expand the ECB balance sheet. Buy more sovereign debt — and make it clear the ECB will keep on buying.
Elsewhere:
U.S. economic data is light, but Chinese inflation numbers on Wednesday will be important. They peaked at 6.5 percent in July...lower numbers will give cover to the Chinese government. Stimulus in China can offset some of the hard landing scenarios out there.
I turn on the idiot channel at 5:30 here on the West Coast, leave it on till 6 and as soon as I see Cramers face move over to Bloomberg. Than after the market opens, I have my news feeds and music until 4 PM NY time. Period. Never watch crap during the trading day.
And there goes 1,800 on the wothless relic that is in a bubble and useless, pays no interest, you cannot eat it and a waste of time.
CNBS Punk'd?
...and they don't even know it.
Kashkari - at the very LEAST - should be behind bars.
Too Funny. The Tyler Durdens have delivered to the ZH Sheeple in a very funny format today.
To answer the question of why people read ZH when it is as wrong as the sell side guys at CNBC could ever be, well it is the same reason that people watch professional wrestling; TO BE ENTERTAINED!
And confirmation bias. Don't forget confirmation bias.
Enjoy the EOTW sheeple. It is coming as Dear Leader has said it to be :)
Must see TV: PhD entertainers on CNBC with their shirts off throwing darts ...
I’ve often imagined Abby Joseph Cohen to be a complete stereotype façade, designed to appeal to old widows who need the comfort of someone they can identify with to help them invest their dead husband’s fortune. I’ve also imagined once the cameras are off Abby swaps her perm wig, wool sport coat, and pearl necklace for a crew cut, pair of jack boots, and a riding crop (like “Mom” in the animated series “Futurama”) so she can lead her fellow Goldmanites in the process of squeezing the financial life out of the flock she just sucked in and has trapped under her wings.
CNBC would have been punked if he'd said it whilst being interviewed on said channel...