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Key Events In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week was a good week for equities but a very mixed week for many EM currencies, in particular in Asia. Despite continued debate in the market, it is still not clear what caused this disconnect. Two alternative hypotheses top the list: final capitulation on the highest conviction investments, or alternatively, the rebound in the EUR may have squeezed people out of Euro-funded positions in EM.

The Euro rebound was not a surprise in itself, given how short the market was positioned according to most indicators. The German government and other European policy makers calmed markets by insisting that there were no plans to let Greece default or for the country to leave the Eurozone.

The Eurozone crisis will remain on top of the agenda with a Monday conference call scheduled between the Greek Finance minister and the Troika to assess if the conditions have been met for the disbursement of the next tranche. Also on Monday, Chancellor Merkel will face the press after weak regional election results in Berlin. Likely, the Eurozone crisis will be on the agenda. The developments in Greece will remain important throughout the week, with speeches by German Finance Minister Schaeuble and the ECB's Mr. Stark potentially important at the end of the week, during the IMF/Worldbank/G20 meetings, which start at the end of the week. At the Washington gathering we expect plenty of public comments on the Eurozone crisis by global policymakers, giving the currency market an opportunity to move on every headline.

The other main event this week is the FOMC meeting, where Goldman expects “Operation Twist”. Some investors have started to wonder if there will be a QE3 surprise with additional asset purchases. Also on the central bank side, the latest BOE minutes will be interesting this week, given there had been some speculation the Bank may increase asset purchases. Sterling tends to react quite strongly to the MPC minutes.

Finally, on the macro data side, the advanced Eurozone PMIs, the Ifo and the Chicago Fed survey will be key to watch.

Monday 19th

  • IMF/EU/Greece Conference call: Enough progress to allowing disbursement of the next tranche?
     
  • Chancellor Merkel press conference after weak Berlin election results: How much blame for the Eurozone crisis?
  • NAHB Housing Market Index, Sept., est. 15 from 15
  • France to sell EUR1b 336-day bills
  • France to sell EUR2.5b 182-day bills
  • France to sell EUR4.5b 91-day bills
  • U.S. to sell $29b 3-month bills
  • U.S. to Sell $27b 6-month bills
  • Fed buying $0.5b-$1b, Mar. 31, 2013-Mar. 15, 2014 Treasuries  (agency/MBS rolldown)

Tuesday

  • Housing Starts, Aug., est 590k from 604k
  • Housing Starts, Aug., M/m, est. -2.3%  from -1.5%
  • Building Permits, Aug., est. 590k from 601k (revised)
  • Building Permits, Aug., M/m, est. -1.8% from -3.2%
  • Spain to sell 12-month and 18-month bills
  • U.S. to sell 4-week bills
  • U.S. to sell $25b 52-week bills

Wednesday 21st

  • US FOMC decision: Operation Twist or more?
  • BOE Minutes: How close was the MPC to implement additional QE?
  • Norges Bank rate decision: Consensus expects unchanged rates.
  • MBA Mortgage Applications, week of Sept. 16
  • Existing Home Sales, Aug., est. 4.75m from 4.67m
  • Existing Home Sales, M/m, Aug., est. 1.7% from -3.5%
  • FOMC Rate Decision, est. 0.25% from 0.25%
  • Germany to sell add’l EU5b 10-yr notes
  • Portugal to sell 182-day bills
  • Portugal to sell 91-day bills

Thursday 22nd

  • Euro area advanced PMI (Sep): More weakness expected by the market.
  • G20 Meeting starts.
  • Initial Jobless Claims, week Sept. 17, est. 420k from 428k
  • Continuing Claims, week Sept. 10, est. 3720k from 3726k
  • Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Sept.
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Sept. 18
  • Leading Indicators, Aug., est. 0.1% from 0.5%
  • House Price Index, M/m, July, est. 0.2% from 0.9%
  • U.S. to sell $11b 10-yr TIPS (re-open)
  • U.S. announces 2-yr, 5-yr, 7-yr auction sizes

Friday 23rd

  • German Ifo (Sep).
  • US Chicago Fed.
  • IMF annual meeting begins.
  • Speeches by Messrs Trichet, Dudley and Schaeuble at the IMF meeting.
  • Fed’s Dudley to speak on panel in Washington D.C.
  • Fed’s Williams on uncoventional monetary policy in Zurich
  • ECB’s Trichet speaks in Washington D.C.
  • Fed buying $0.5b-$1.25b, Nov. 15, 2021-Aug. 15, 2041 Treasuries (agency/MBS rolldown)

Saturday 24th

Two speeches by the ECB's Mr. Stark at the IMF meeting

 

Source: Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:48 | 1683878 oobrien
oobrien's picture

When does it finally fucking crash?

I'm tired of waiting!

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:47 | 1683876 madgstrader
madgstrader's picture

check this out Tyler gold remonetisation:

 

Swiss securities offer service allowing gold as payment
Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:50 | 1683879 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

GS forgot:

 

 

Tuesday 20th

Greece defaults: got Ravioli?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 07:21 | 1683904 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Is BAC finally going down or what?

Cyprus-Turkey crisis :

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000683802

Noble Energy starts Cyprus drilling in defiance of Turkey

US company Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) has started drilling in Cyprus's Block 12 license. At the start of the month, the Turkish government threatened to send the Turkish navy to Cyprus if the latter continued with its plan to drill at the location. However, Noble Energy, a partner of Israeli companyDelek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG), began drilling today, ten days before the end of the period stipulated in the agreement between it and the Cypriot authorities.

 

And of course Israel-Palestine :

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/148011

Reservists Called Up, Instructions Unclear

IDF calls up reservist soldiers in preparation for mayhem after PA UN move. "Open fire only if your life is danger," they are told

 

Palestine to declare statehood on Sept.23...

 

This week is gonna be quite epic.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 07:29 | 1683916 Shineola
Shineola's picture

false flag attack probability increased

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 07:53 | 1683950 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

looks like a busy week. i just hope it won't be boring as last week.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 08:29 | 1684002 Keystone Speculator
Keystone Speculator's picture

Interesting seasonalilty since 80% or more of the time the week after September OPEX is down. The key Key Events from Keystone are Housing Starts Tuesday morning, a critical number for markets each month, of course the two-day Fed meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, but by the Wednesday Fed announcement at 2:15 PM EST traders may be disappointed. The disinflation and deflation just isn't here yet like it was in summer of 2010 so Bernanke still has breathing room.  Wait for the dollar to continue to rise, and the CRB to fall towards 300 that will be the tell.

Thursday is the HSBC China PMI, the Citi Industrials Conference this week will provide color on the companies that provide the nuts and bolts for the economy, Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM and Leading Indicators at 10 Am Thursday as well. The high drama continues as the BRIC countries meet in Washington to provide help to Europe, perhaps that is why Europe takes the laissez-faire approach to things, someone is always there to pat their behinds.  Maybe some tough love is better.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 08:35 | 1684009 cab economist
cab economist's picture

After Lehman’s Gold dropped, fail to prepare, prepare to fail................

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