This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Key Events In The Coming Week And Month

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After last week's event-a-palooza, where the headlines, the spin, the erroneous HFT trading, and the propaganda (Draghi is too cold; Draghi is too hot; Draghi is just right) just refused to stop, we finally enter the summer proper where all of Europe is on vacation, as is congress. Add on top of this a very light macro event week and an earnings season which has seen the bulk of companies already report, and we expect the volume in the coming 5 days to be among the lowest recorded in 2012, and thus in the past decade. Which of course means that the cannibalization among the market makers will continue as more and more firms succumb to "trading anomalies."

Goldman recaps the key macro events in the coming week, few as they may be:

In the upcoming week, we enter the less data-intensive period of the month. There are few major data releases, which could change investors' take on the global business cycle. However, there are a number of central bank meetings, with the RBA, BOJ the most important ones, together with the inflation report from the BOE. But we will also get rate decisions in Korea, Indonesia and Peru. On the data front we will look at the US trade balance and China CPI numbers.

Most of the focus in the week ahead will likely remain on the ECB decision, including the political debate across the Eurozone that usually follows important announcements. We expect continued headline-induced volatility and some focus on the "if" and "when" of any additional support for Spain.

Mon 6 Aug

  • Indonesia GDP

Tue 7 Aug

  • Australia RBA Cash Rate Announcement: Consensus expects a flat rate of 3.50% for August.
  • United Kingdom Industrial Production: We expect a decline to -4.3% yoy from -1.6% yoy previously.
  • Germany Factory Orders: Consensus expects a decline to -0.8% mom from 0.6% mom previously.
  • Also interesting: Switzerland Harmonised CPI, US Consumer Credit, Italy GDP.

Wed 8 Aug

  • Brazil IBC-BR Monthly Real GDP: We expect an increase to 1.5% yoy from 1.1% yoy previously.
  • Brazil Inflation - IPCA (IBGE): We expect an increase to 5.17% yoy from 4.92% yoy for July.
  • Germany Trade Balance: Consensus expects a decline to 14.6B from 15.3B previously.
  • United Kingdom Bank of England Inflation Report
  • Germany Industrial Production: Consensus expects a decline to -0.8% mom from 1.6% mom for June.
  • United States Non-Farm Productivity (Q2): Hours worked and nonfarm output point to a solid gain in productivity in the second quarter. We expect +1.1% compared to consensus at +1.4% and Q1 at -0.9%.
  • Also interesting: Japan Current Account Balance.

Thu 9 Aug

  • Indonesia Central Bank Meeting: Consensus expects the reference rate to stay flat at 5.75%.
  • Japan Monetary Policy Meeting: Consensus expects the target rate to remain unchanged at 0.10%.
  • Peru Central Bank Meeting: We expect the Central Bank to keep the policy rate on hold at 4.25% yoy.
  • South Korea Central Bank Meeting
  • China CPI: With some agricultural prices moving higher in recent months, it will remain key to watch the extent to which rising inflation restricts the ability of policymakers in China to used stimulus to boost growth.
  • China Industrial Production: Consensus expects an increase to 9.7% yoy from 9.5% yoy for July.
  • United Kingdom Trade Balance: We expect an increase in the deficit to 2.9bn comparing to -2.7bn previously.
  • United States Trade Balance: We forecast that the nominal trade deficit remained unchanged in June as imports and exports appear flat on the month. Consensus expects a decline to the deficit from -$48.7B to -$47.6B for June.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims: After a number of swings in recent weeks, this number continues to deserve close monitoring.
  • Also interesting: China Retail Sales, Mexico INPC Headline Inflation.

Fri 10 Aug

  • China Trade Balance: Consensus expects a decline to 8.2% from 11.3% in exports and an increase to 7.4% from 6.3% in imports for the month of July.
  • Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
  • Germany CPI: Consensus expects an unchanged 1.7% yoy for July.
  • France Industrial Production: Consensus expects an increase to -1.8% yoy from -3.5% yoy for June.
  • Also interesting: United Kingdom Producer Prices, India Industrial Production

 

And for those only curious what happens in Europe, here is the full event calendar for the next two months courtesy of Deustche Bank. Enjoy the quiet August. In September things get really fun.

August:

  • 7 August: Italian Q2 GDP flash estimate. A weak figure would reignite the ‘austerity versus growth’ debate (DB forecast –0.8% qoq).
  • 13 August: Italy auction. Bill
  • 14 August: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 14 August: Euro area Q2 GDP flash estimate, from Eurostat.
  • Mid-August: French Constitutional Court/Fiscal Compact. In Mid-August the French Constitutional Court is due to rule whether the Fiscal Compact, which euro area countries are due to endorse by the start of 2013, needs to be ratified into the French Constitution. If so, a  joint vote by the French Assembly would be required. Signals are that this would happen in September if required.
  • 16 August: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 20 August: Greek bond redemption. Greece is due to repay EUR3.1bn of GGBs. Following the PSI, these would be GGBs owned by the ECB and EIB. While agreement on how to reconfigure the second loan programme is unlikely before September, it is unlikely the EU will hold-out from paying funds to Greece to repay the ECB/EIB. In a consolidated sense, theofficial sector’s exposure to Greece remains the same, but the creditor changes (to the EFSF). Alternatively, Greece could issue T-bills and the Greek banks could absorb them with the assistance of ELA from the Greek central bank which is what the media reports would indeed happen.
  • 21 August: Spain auction. Bills
  • 28 August: Spain auction. Bills
  • 28 August: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 29 August: Italy auction. Bills
  • 30 August: Italy auction. Bond
  • End-August: DBRS rating on Spain/Ireland. By the end of August, the DBRS ratings agency is due to have concluded its review of Spanish and Irish sovereign ratings.

September:

  • September: Moody’s due to conclude review of Spanish sovereign rating. Logically Moody's should wait until there is clarity on direct recap before making a decision on Spain’s rating. Since governments have not made progress fleshing out a direct recapitalisation facility — indeed, have created some ambiguity as to whether it will be non-recourse— there is a distinct risk that Moody's, in another move to be “ahead of the curve”, decides to downgrade Spain within the next 3 months. Moody’s currently rates Spain Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating.
  • September: Detailed bottom-up Spanish bank stress tests due for publication.
  • 6 September: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 6 September: ECB Governing Council meeting. The markets will be hoping for clarity on the modalities of the new bond purchasing  scheme as well as how the ECB intends to address the seniority question. The new ECB staff forecasts will be released. There is a strong chance of the GDP growth forecasts being revised down, giving the ECB a basis to cut interest rates. We expect a 25bp refi rate cut, but assuming the ‘quantitative’ arrangements announced on 2 August materialise, there may be less pressure on the ECB to consider a negative deposit rate.
  • 11 September: Greece auction. Bills
  • 12 September: German Constitutional Court ESM ruling. The German Constitutional Court is to rule on the complaints lodged against the ESM and fiscal compact. The chances of the ESM being vetoed are low. However, the Court might again strengthen the German Parliament’s prerogatives as regards future European integration (see Focus Germany, 20 July). Germany is the last approval needed for the ESM tocome into effect. Then the first instalment of the capital has to be paid by the ESM members within 15 days of the ESM treaty entering into force. There are three other countries where Constitutional Court queries are outstanding — France, Austria and Ireland. France’s Constitutional Court will be deciding by mid-August. Neither Austria (which may take another 3-6 months) nor Ireland are large enough to hold back the ESM — the ESM will come into force when countries representing 90% of the subscribed capital have approved it. Both Germany and Francehave an effective veto power in that case.
  • 12 September: Dutch Election. In April, the VVD/CDA minority government failed when Geert Wilders' PVV party withdrew its support amid negotiations for the 2013  austerity budget. A crisis was averted when three smaller parties came forward to give support to a budget, but an early election was unavoidable. Domestic austerity and European crisis issues will likely play important roles in the election. Opinion polls point to the antiausterity Socialist Party now being the most popular party in the Netherlands. Unlike France, Dutch politics remains fragmented. Despite the support, there is no guarantee the Socialists will end up in power. Nevertheless, the success of the Socialists’ ‘antiausterity’ message could influence Dutch policymaking in general. The Queen has an amount of discretion in choosing who to offer the mandate for rule. The trouble is, none of the ‘standard’ coalition combinations currently secures a majority. Forming a new government could take time, measured in months. In the meantime the outgoing (minority) government remains responsible for policy. The danger is this might impede Europe’s ability to achieve real progress on integration in the latter stages of 2011.
     
  • 12 September: Italy auction. Bills
  • 13-14 September: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meeting. In Mexico.
  • 13 September: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 14-15 September: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. This is very likely the finance ministers meeting when adjustments to Greece's second loan programme will be considered. The remaining EUR23bn recapitalisation of the Greek banks is due to complete by the end of September, assuming a positive review of the loan programme. This is also when finance ministers should have their first discussion on the proposals for a common bank supervisory regime under the ECB. Any delays, with knock-on delays for a direct bank recapitalisation mechanism, will disappoint the market. Options for a reconsideration of Ireland’s legacy bank bailout policies may also be discussed (decision not due until October ECOFIN meeting).
  • 18 September: Greece auction. Bills
  • 18 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 20 September: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 25 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 25 September: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 26 September: Italy auction. Bills
  • 27 September: Italy auction. Bonds
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:28 | 2680614 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

Low volume means super awesome market manipulation!

Buy. Buy. Buy.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:25 | 2680770 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Fringe Blogger Bearing writes a review of Barron's.  One topic that gets a lot of attention is the dubiously positive jobs numbers released Friday.  Barron's IS launching a new column "Emerging Markets" the author is off to a great start (I just sent her a congratulatory email)!  Also, BIG INSIDER SALES last week.  And their big Cover Story on the current state of the oil business is excellent!

http://tinyurl.com/8aoy78n

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:28 | 2680774 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Exactly. This week is a good time to "help" the market to continue rising. purchase, use the up and be ready to go.!!

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 05:07 | 2681080 malikai
malikai's picture

Long market corruption.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:34 | 2680638 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Iran and the Saudi's meeting mid August.  What is the impact if they being working together instead of against one another?

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:37 | 2680653 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

War in Iran. War in Syria.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:40 | 2680662 flacon
flacon's picture

"War in the East. War in the West. War up North. War down South." ~ Bob Marley

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 00:46 | 2680911 GlassSteagall
GlassSteagall's picture

War in Spain

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 05:42 | 2681089 Haager
Haager's picture

What exactly was the reason to tighten the sanctions against Iran if not the intend to weaken that country further?

Who - in first place - increases the public unrest in Syria, who is profiting from this ongoing situation?

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:40 | 2680659 q99x2
q99x2's picture

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:40 | 2680661 vinu02
Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:41 | 2680663 flacon
flacon's picture

Good. Let's get this thing goin' on already!

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:41 | 2680666 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I'll say no wars anywhere.

 

The drought will go away and prices will come back down.

The economy will continue to improve, Bernanke will jawbone the markets wherever he feels is appropriate, and Draghi will throw in a gaffe or two that will spook investors for a few days.

Otherwise it is going to be onward and upward towards new 4-year highs, as long as AAPL doesn't blow up or something.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:18 | 2680761 Need More Cowbell
Need More Cowbell's picture

Europe = house of cards = get out now.  This is your last warning.

 

You are one smokin' robot.

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 04:40 | 2681062 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Euro-farce will continue and is actually improving in condition ... the UK Telegraph's terrific Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has actually been providing a better perspective than ZeroHedge these last few days ... His latest, quite the opposite of the ZeroHedge 'groupthink' - how the ECB is in fact getting ready to print and buy bonds massively, with even Merkel's agreement (to save the German banks, of course) -

'Venetian cunning of Draghi-Monti masterplan may save euro for now'

« ... Mr Draghi has secured a mandate for "unlimited open-market operations", a far cry from the half-hearted and self-defeating bond purchases of the last two years. The ECB at last has a licence to act with overwhelming force, like the US Federal Reserve. ...

The ECB is preparing to act as a genuine lender-of-last-resort for the first time, once the EFSF trigger is activated. It may soon start to reverse the frightening monetary contraction that has bedevilled southern Europe for the last year. »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9453667/Venetian-cunning-of-D...

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:54 | 2680720 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

It looks like there is one country that does know how to deal with bank fraud:

Iran Bank Fraud Scandal: 4 Sentenced To Death

DUBAI, July 30 (Reuters) - An Iranian court has sentenced four people to death for a billion-dollar bankfraud that tainted the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, state media reported on Monday.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/30/iran-bank-fraud_n_1720906.html?...

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 21:57 | 2680730 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Yea the economy will continue to "improve" alright.

You know if all the stuff they have done so far worked then why is everyone begging for more QE.

No way, no how does that up.

Key events don't matter. Could print +500K on Thursday and market would be at new highs.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:07 | 2680747 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

ultra-low volume means double plus good for the stock market.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:10 | 2680752 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

We will see who has the true conviction over the next two weeks. Few people are convinced that a QE3 has any medicinal purpose other than a feel good bump up. We are heading toward the end game. Corporate revenues are down and falling. The squids will lock their profits on any smell of gas or unsavory taste of global news. We are an event away from a huge sell-off. Republicans need that event otherwise it is "four more years".

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:21 | 2680765 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Fairly sure no party will want to see what is coming next save maybe the elite of the very elite.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:47 | 2680804 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

what was that nearly 4pb ramp in crude friday?? im sure thats bullish!

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 23:01 | 2680828 toady
toady's picture

Broke pipe/ refineries have Midwest prices spiking.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 22:52 | 2680811 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Big US-SK wargame near contested islands on August 20-31.

Big Russian naval wargame off Syria in September.

Russian drill in Kaliningrad August 8.

 

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 23:20 | 2680855 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Indonesia GDP. I have been waiting for that. Most important event next to Harry Reid signing into an Assisted Living Center. What a waste that man is.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 23:22 | 2680857 steveo77
steveo77's picture

Methinks a trap and drop. Drop a comment, only if you have a pulse. 
 
First an slightly higher opening and advancing 1 hour on shaking buy volume but with many issues up, to draw in the "I knew it I Knew I should have gone long on Friday" crowd. And then a 2 day 2% bodyslams to tech them a lesson, and then we rally into next Week Expiry week. 
 
Euro, risk on/off NZD/JPY, and Nasdaq futures all say the same.  
 
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/08/monday-outlook-trap-and-drop. html

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 23:32 | 2680863 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

you forgot the lander landing on mars tonight. go mars!!1

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 01:00 | 2680918 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

From Deutsche Bank via ZeroHedge, I examined the euro calendar through the end of September.

My guess is that the €30bn partial bank bailout will be used by the banks to purchase Spanish debt in addition to shoring their own capital. This should be enough to get Spain through to September.

I do not see the German Constitutional Court striking down the ESM, but the Spanish and Italians have to roll over a lot of debt towards the end of September.

The biggest problem I see is not on the calendar. The finances of the Spanish and Italian regions are rapidly deteriorating, and they will not be able to keep a lid on those problems forever.

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 01:00 | 2680919 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Ferragosto

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 01:46 | 2680948 chump666
chump666's picture

oh also we have nice geopolitical tensions brewing and it will get worst

re:India/China http://postnoon.com/2012/08/01/china-to-react-if-india-seeks-oil-in-sout...

"To achieve the goal, India has conducted joint military drills and stepped up security cooperation with countries that have disputes with China in the South China Sea."

Lets see if mad Mario and Bernanke can start a war with oil inflation. 

 

 

Mon, 08/06/2012 - 02:57 | 2681009 1000pips
1000pips's picture

No one knows anything.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 08:31 | 2693598 govttrader
govttrader's picture

Is there anything here that isn't bullish for US Treasuries??

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!