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Key Events In The Week Ahead
When even Goldman says the rally is based on male cow feces, Houston, we have a very big problem.
From GS' Thomas Stolper on what endless BS to expect out of Europe, together with a few facts here and there:
To some extent it is remarkable that markets continued to rally last week and that Eurozone-related risk premia declined, because at the surface, there has been very little concrete progress regarding the Eurozone fiscal crisis. The extent of Greek haircuts, the details of bank recapitalisations, the use of leverage in the EFSF or not – all these and many other issues remain basically unresolved at the moment. Only one thing is clear, policymakers continue to work overtime while trying to find solutions. Following this weekend’s G20 finance ministers meeting, which also emphasised the increased focus on bank recapitalisations, the Eurogroup summit next Sunday will be the key event.
To understand market reaction, it could be as easy as looking at the last IMM report, which indicated only a small reduction in USD longs. As we have been highlighting in the past, risk premia have been very large across asset classes and certainly in cyclical FX crosses as well. Without additional bad news from either the political or macro front, some short covering in risky assets and unwinding of long Dollar positions was a not unexpected move. Over the course of the week, the trade-weighted USD lost another percent and has not corrected about one-third of the recent rally. In the week ahead, Eurozone politics will likely remain a key focus, and further gradual progress could lead to further unwinding of USD long positions.
This week, there is still not a huge amount of macro data, though we will get the Philly Fed and Ifo surveys on Thursday and Friday, respectively. There should be some focus on the August TIC data, which will cover the beginning of the summer sell-off. We will scrutinise the release for signs of repatriation flows back into the US. Another weak number would highlight – once again – under how much pressure the USD currently is.
There will probably be some focus on UK data as well, with the CPI numbers and the latest MPC minutes, which should shed light on the recent QE decision by the BOE.
Monday 17th
- US Industrial Production for October: Consensus expects +0.2% mom after 0.2% mom.
Tuesday 18th
- UK CPI for September: This will be interesting in the context of high inflation in the UK and additional QE by the BOE. Consensus expects +0.4% after +0.6%.
- US TIC Data: After a string of weak readings, the August numbers are likely to show weak US capital inflows, though there is a chance that repatriation flows have picked up during the period of risk aversion.
- Speeches by Bernanke, BOE King.
Wednesday 19th
- Bank of England Minutes. After the QE decision, it will be interesting to get a better sense of the related MPC debate.
- Brazil’s Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 50bp to 11.50%.
- US CPI (Sep)
Thursday 20th
- UK Retail Sales (Sep)
- US Jobless Claims
- US Philly Fed (Oct)
Friday 21st
- German Ifo Survey (Oct)
- Speeches by Trichet, Stark, and Yellen
Sunday 23rd
- Eurogroup Summit
Source: Goldman Sachs
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Will we ever see a pullback to the 1130-40 area, or will the market continue to rally to high heaven?
Bernak's has printing like a madman. Robert Wenzel at EPJ.COM has pointed out that the data is showing signs of recovery due to that. ABCT predicts this shit, and Keynesians are always shocked.
When the FED cuts off the money again, the crash will be epic. This XMas looks good, though
Moss, tomorrow's (Monday) close should paint a better picture. We've been bouncing between ~1,120 and ~1,230 and (based on futures and Asia) to looks like we might challenge 1,230 at the open. But let's see where we close - I'm really hoping any rally is faded at the close b/c I'm not ready to commit more capital.
It all depends on AAPL, IBM, WFC and Citibank earnings this week.
Once again, the world awaits breathlessly to see the reaction.
Virtually million of nervous eyeballs will be glued to the screens.
And the fate of modern civilization hangs in the balance.
Yeah right. Everyone will "beat" the so called estimates that have been all set/cut back to levels that will be easily beaten.
iPhone 4s is not 4g, fucking bullshit vocabulary/alphabet HOAX!
This is correct.
The network is not built out...sometime end of next year...maybe.
I didn't know there was such a thing a "modern" civilization. I always was told the goal is to turn back the clock to the "peculiar institution" days of chattel slavery...finally fix all those problems that the Romans had once and for all. Not that i'm disagreeing of course...people really are waiting breathlessly...either for "the rebirth" or "the end" i imagine. Either way "it's a Manichean Struggle starring us as the terrorists" this time. Thank God for the tax code to "make it all right"!
All depends? Bullshit. The only thing that depends on that is the near term momo crap. If anything, stupid myopic traders getting a boner over AAPL earnings and running up the market is only going to make it worse when these retards finally realize Greece will absolutely default and the EU is fucked.
male cow feces or equine plumage. Please stick with the theme of the article. Other than that I completely agree.
When do policy makers EVER 'work'?
After golf, in a cigar-smoke-filled room, when they are told what to do to "thin the heard," and other happy plans.
Then they surf the internet looking for porn....
Foget this week. The market is gone full-retard: no bets are safe bets in the week ahead. Following the 23rd is when the fireworks begin. Plan accordingly.
You said this in August and you were right. Its all about the dividend capture, isn't it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI2FolId6CA
Is the Euro at :23 or :53?
http://youtu.be/hz65AOjabtM
Monday 17th
So tell me, Who The FUCK is buying the ES tonight? Assholes, say as I do, or something.
The same entity that has been buying since march 2009. Do you guys think they buy only when QE is in progress?
Actually, I'm not even sure 'they' are 'buying' anything. With electronic means to create monies, this could all literally be absolutely bullshit on every level. Fuck, they can control it with a virtual joystick if they really wanted to.
SINCE 1987 when they started buying the XMI, er MMI FUTURES READ THIS:
https://picasaweb.google.com/107472818091222876443/TheMissilesOfOctober
"It all depends on AAPL, IBM, WFC and Citibank earnings this week." Two fo these earnings will beat, with or without the "wow" factor, the other two will beat as well, with help from the JPM school of accounting. No fat tail events will take place, and no significant macro data will disappoint, since there is none. Robo-trader and all market bulls will be happy to see 5-7% gains in all their long positions by the end of the week. A low-volume break-out, engineered by Brian Sack, will succeed in drawing in algos from all HFT firms to push the S&P to test the neckline of the H&S, and the EURO/USD will punch through 1.42 be the end of the week as Merkozy announce the details of their plan to save the EZ. All is fine in the markets. /sarc
so what if they do? why is that "bad"? haven't we all learned that concocting numbers and calling it "earnings" is the quickest way to have the market...let alone your company... collapse? It wasn't Corporate America that collapsed the market...it was Wall Street itself...in an unholy alliance with Washington DC no less. America Inc. makes money ignoring Wall Street and so should you. Those two cities appear to be in revolt now. Their only wish is to take you and me down with them I imagine. That's why we should welcome trillion dollar deficits. Take a look at your neighbors...and neighborhood. If they're the type of people you can live around then that's how you will "make it" in my view. Yes, yes?
AAPL & IBM will, of course report yet another "record" quarter, not so sure of CITI or WFC, rest is "statistics" at it's best!!!
Markets will "rally hard" until next "planned surprise weekend", after that I DONT KNOW!!!
Sorrrryyyy... but of course, it will be The Beard's Nov "moment" and for sure another reason to "rally even harder" say straight into year end "bonuses"?!?!
meltdown last two weeks of Oct, cheap puts and fixed mini shorts on overbought indexes.
And...futures are fucking green.
They'll push the shit out of the ES in the wee hours, per normal. Why the hell should they even stop? There isn't any law governing it anyway and the Sheriff is a porn watching jackoff.
They aren't done with this ram rodding yet.
Wouldn't be surprised to see S&Ps trade 1250 by Wednesday.
Thanks for that. That's really something to think about.
The G20 is basically preparing last ditch efforts.
There is very little hopium left to be pumped IMHO -
The Brussels meeting “has the potential to turn into a positive historic moment,” Joachim Fels, London-based chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. “But it could also easily turn into a negative catalyst.”
Europe’s plan, which has still to be made public, includes writing down Greek bonds by as much as 50 percent, establishing a backstop for banks and magnifying the strength of the 440 billion-euro ($611 billion) temporary rescue fund known as the European Financial Stability Facility, people familiar with the matter said last week.
“The plan has the right elements,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in Paris. “They clearly have more work to do on the strategy and the details.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-16/eu-given-one-week-to-fix-crisis...
Simple Jack never goes "full retard"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyNZy7mWulM
and the next week...europa implodes, blowing the fuking squid to smithereens, BiCheZ!
wishfull stinking, three one four.
The way it is going right now, the S&P 500 wil open above 1250 by 9:30am tomorrow.
1400 by friday.
https://picasaweb.google.com/107472818091222876443/TheMissilesOfOctober
Keep preparing - use the time to your advantage. Turn your angst into action and just keep preparing.
Fort Lauderdale LOVES K K DOWNING
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODlzOyNFXtQ
I think that Markets have rallied entirely on hopium for Europe
last Night I watched a disturbing program called "Quadriga:
"Europe at All Costs - Politics and Integrity"
a "Deutsche Welle talkfest" from their Berlin Studios right next to the Brandenburger Gate.
As a German citizen living in Australia I could not believe my eyes and ears.
This Group of Journalists with degrees in economics, business and finance discussed how Europe could best be bailed out.
They all seemed to agree that expanding the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) was the way to go but that the €440 billion was not enough to bailout countries like Spain or other countries and therefore they thought it was a great Idea to follow Tim Geitners Idea of "leveraging" the €440 billion EFSF up to 8 times, in Order to calm the markets and stop Austerity and to inject "more funds" and bailout banks and all the countries who need to be bailed out.
Even though QE had not worked "too well" in America, this was "the only way" to help Europe and the Euro out of the financial crisis. They all seemed to be in agreement on that and that a leveraged EFSF of about € 3.52 trillion Euros would be about enough to solve all the problems in Europe.
I could not believe my ears or my eyes and thought that someone there must be totally insane, either it is me or them. "Leveraging" the €440 billion EFSF up to 8 times, and then throw good money after bad into ever increasing Debt will "solve all of Europes problems". (and of course Euro - bonds )
Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more... ( stupid selfsatisfied ugly indoctrinated grins all around )
It is because of this kind of thinking heavily influenced by american liberalism, that I left Germany in disgust when I was only twenty. I could see all this bullshit coming. The cold war with the Sowjet Union, the american occupation of my country, the endless propaganda and war-mongering, the chew 'em up spit them out attitude of a Germany that had been taken over by american culture and attitude, the last straw came when after the Vietnam War they wanted to force me into conscription with the Army (NATO) That was the final straw that broke the Camels back ! I told the Nato Military to fuck of, I was not going to waste 2 years of my young Life rotting and shouting shit at the Stasi across the Berlin Wall, I wanted no part of a Germany occupied by those who had wiped German Cities from the face of the Earth.
With 19 I got married and sailed by boat through the Panama canal all the way from Bremerhaven to Wellington in New Zealand and later to Sydney Australia. I am still a German Citizen and I have been back home many times since.
but I want the americans to get the fuck out of my country and stop trying to enslave the world with their failed Ideas of what liberals and neo-cons in america call "progress and freedom" the last reminance of their failed "american dream"
where everyone now are enslaved to mountains of "Leveraged" Debt amounting to the trillions of USD !
Fuck off America and UK, Fuck off Tim Geitner ,Greenspan and Bernanke, Fuck off US and Nato and your endless War-mongering.
Fuck off financial markets that rally on this shit, by throwing more gasoline into the raging fire of endless Debt and subjecting whole Generations of People to ever increasing dependance and a life of misery and slavery !
Just Fuck off !
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/episode/0,,15383865,00.htmlThere is NO REASON for a rally. The economy is STALLED!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
11.5% brazil...???
Huh...!
Does Ben know this.?
Is Goldman really this stupid? They need to fire these market analyst who probably got good grades in school by circling if economy = not good than stock market = go down when the answer should've have been if funds are down %20+ and bond yields are at historic lows and when apple reports soon than market = near 52-week high knowing that the Europeon fuk ups can't fuk up until the summit.
full list of econ releases:
http://www.forexnews.com/forex-tools/economic-calendar/
LET's discuss key events
Before things get too hot, I would rather fix a result -20 day accurate short term prediction of PMs after weekend and Asian trading:
Here is the original from Sep 28 (posted in Sapo's Joint 1 day after I posted it here (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/60954#comment-60954):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=560#p34264
And the most important text part:
1) Silver may fluctuate around 30 USD (+- 3?) for 1 month or so (except very short sharp peaks, perhaps) , then move up sharply about 5 USD to 35-40 and drop again, now to little higher level of 33-35 +-5, and not change much anymore this year. So the bottom will be kind of close from time to time during October.
2) Gold, on the contrary, seems to be posed for relatively steady growth till 1800 in November, around which level it should fluctuate for few months (+- 50 ?) .
Kind of suggests may be more commodities will have relatively flat period (+-10%) from Oct-Nov till the end of the Year.
Now, my own latest Brent crude 1M chart has been given without accuracy bounds. So, to this September 27th graph:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=560#p34241
I had to add in retrospect:
3) Brent Crude oil 1M will fluctuate in Oct-Dec 2011 around 105 USD/bbl. The daily fluctuations will be contained within +-10USD- however, on the downside. we may start touching briefly the January pit (below 95) already in December. Below 95USD +-10USD BRENT Crude 1M Means 72USD+-7USD for WTI ( known as simply OIL).
But this is short term, so must be wrong
"male cow" is an oxymoron. You city guys !!! Geez.