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Key Global Events In The Coming Week
From Goldman Sachs
Across many asset classes, last week’s price action was little more than a round-trip within established ranges. Consolidation was visible in macro data too, with regional US and Chinese business surveys continuing to stabilise at the relatively low levels seen in previous months. At the same time, our GS Wavefront Growth basket continues to trend lower, suggesting that cyclical stocks remain under pressure..
On the policy front, a series of critical EFSF votes went through last week without any hiccup, including the German, Finnish, and Slovenian decisions. Though the clearing of these hurdles provided some support to markets in the earlier part of the week, renewed Greek headlines pushed risky assets lower.
In FX, a similar pattern persisted as in other asset classes, with most Dollar crosses matching the round trip during the week, including in EM. Only a few currencies marked notable new lows last week, in particular the Canadian Dollar. Positioning has continued to move in favour of defensive currencies, in particular the USD. The latest IMM report hints at very stretched short positioning in currencies like the EUR, AUD, and CAD.
The upcoming week will provide more detail on both key subjects. Firstly, we will get the latest round of PMIs, though regional US surveys and preliminary readings in Europe suggest that macro data will continue to stabilise at relatively low levels, as mentioned earlier. The second important issue is the upcoming ECB meeting.
It is rare to see an ECB meeting create that much advance focus as the upcoming one. But of course, this is not a surprise given the tricky junction at which the ECB finds itself. First, Eurozone inflation numbers have risen substantially to 3.0% yoy in the last reading published last week. Second, the funding situation for many banks with peripheral exposure remains very tense. Third, the Troika is back in Greece amid intensifying talk about a larger haircut being needed than agreed on July 21. And fourth, the upcoming meeting will be the last one for Jean Claude Trichet, who will pass on the Presidency to Mario Draghi. The focus at the upcoming meeting will be on the rate decision and on any additional measures that may aim at alleviating bank funding stress in the periphery.
Monday 3rd
- ISM Manufacturing (consensus: 50.5 after 50.6 in Aug)
- European Manufacturing PMIs are expected to stabilise relative to the preliminary reading.
Tuesday 4th
- RBA (consensus: no change)
- Trichet Speech in EU Parliament (Economics Committee)
- Bernanke testifies before Joint Economic Committee
Wednesday 5th
- Service PMI (consensus expects further moderate declines from August levels)
- UK GDP (consensus: sequential slowdown in all components except for investment)
Thursday 6th
- Last ECB meeting under Trichet
- BOE (consensus: no change, we expect QE2)
- US Claims (consensus: 410k after 391k)
Friday 7th
- US Payrolls (consensus: +56k after 0k in Aug)
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The latest rumor has it that none of those matter.
As is common here "the focus will be on bailouts." Of course nothing will change unless the ECB "bails in" in the form of taking equity stakes in the banks as the US did in it's banks. Obviously that saved the day. It's not gonna happen in Europe...NO WAY. Everyone knows this now btw--so we need not pretend anymore...as fun as it is of course.
Here i did some further checking on patterns to make some sense in future events predicted by some of my charts:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=580#p34357
By comparing the interesting way DJIA follows Greeces Athens General index with a 1,5 year delay, including current drop ( august/september) . The patterns match almost exactly, and also compare well to my own prediction of DJIA 2011-2013 ( see in the post I referred to).
Briefly: First, have a look at the pictures :
DJIA/Greece comparison April 30, 2011:
DJIA / Greece comparison October 3rd, 2011:
Longest DJIA prediction I have made on April 26th, 2011( not from Greeces graphs, from other patterns I use) :
Since both currencies are pegged ( Greece to EUR, USA to being a world reserve currency) , at the moment where the predicted DJIA stops falling like Greece but becomes stable or even grows due to inflation, the USA DEFAULTS and deflation is replaced by inflation. By looking at Greeces graph that takes a sharp downturn(on Greeces graph, April 2011) into levels DJIA will never reach, and calibrating the time axis of DJIA graph forward, the day of inflection point is Jan 1st, 2015, or roughly, H2 2014. That is the day when USD will be unpegged ( as Greece is still pegged) = meaning the USA will default VERY soon after that or at that time, and USA deflation will change to inflation.
That gives some time for silver stackers, I guess, since as long as USD stays as a reserve currency and deflates, and the price of silver in USD goes up at the time deflation begins, it will allow them to purchase more other things with this silver. This period will last for 2 years-long enough to prepare for what comes next. This crisis is much more stretched out than 1929 crisis.
The question still remains, why at deflation start, silver will move up 3 times while gold only 10-20%. But now its more clear where to look for answers as the scope has been narrowed.
How about covering whats going on with the protestors on the WALL STREET; 700 arrested and no reports on CNN.,. Bloomberg ...Zero Hedge. for days and weeks.... They are coming in greater numbers every hour now London is firing up... Only poor RS tv .... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk-vJBuhUI8
Ah yes, stupid hippies blocking roads and causing ruckus, with no set demands or outline for what they actually wish to achieve.
Go figure.
At least they make hard for Goldma employes to go for lunch, No ne else has gone phisical on wall street since 1930.
That payrolls number on Friday should be good for some high comedy here at ZH.