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Key Upcoming Dates In The European Denouement, And A Complete Eurozone Cheatsheet
For those struggling under the deluge of relentless newsflow out of Europe, here are the key events to look for over the next month, courtesy of CitiFX Wire. Readers can take advantage of the weekend which will be calm until late Sunday morning after which it won't be calm, to familiarize themselves with the hurricane that is headed straight to global capital markets.
Key Upcoming Events
- September 9: Deadline for private bondholders to declare participation in Greek Bailout
- September 9-10: Meeting of the G7 in France, Spain votes on budget amendment
- September 9-14: Potential resumption of the EU/IMF Review of Greece
- September 12: Meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, ICB report on UK banks
- September 13-15: Meeting of EU financial ministers in Poland
- September 16: Eurogroup meets in Poland
- September 20: IMF”s Lagarde to meet Greek PM Papandreou (Dow)
- September 29: German Parliament votes on EFSF Changes, Spanish bank deadline to meet new capitalization requirements
And the complete cheatsheet:
Greek Specifics
- Greece’s key concerns regard private sector involvement in the second bail-out, release of the next IMF support tranche (EUR8bn), and the ongoing collateral debate with Finland.
- Private sector investors were due to indicate today (Friday) if they will participate in the July bail-out package. Greece is targeting 90% participation rate, raising EUR135bn in funds. However, media reports suggest the current take up rate is around 70%-75%.
- IMF members are expected to approve the next tranche of Greek aid this month. But talks were suspended at the end of last week to give Athens more time to demonstrate it is meeting its fiscal targets. Informal talks may resume next week, while Dow Jones reports that IMF chief Lagarde will meet with Greece’s PM Papandreou on September 20.
- The EU is asking for a further Greek deficit cut of 0.7% by the end of the year to secure further financing, according to Dow. The IMF would be happy if Athens just met existing targets.
- Citi Economics believes international lenders will push for additional tightening measures, which would likely be announced over the next 10 days.
- Finland has not withdrawn demands for Greek collateral. We do not expect any decisive progress on the matter before the Eurogroup meets on September 16.
- The French parliament approved its part in the new Greek bailout deal on Thursday.
The EFSF and Austerity Measures
- Germany’s constitutional court declared EFSF (the Eurozone Financial Stability Fund) participation constitutional on Wednesday (September 7).
- The German parliament votes on September 29 on proposed changes to the EFSF; it is expected to pass.
- Slovakia’s Parliament will delay voting on the EFSF until at least December. Reports suggest that the financial minister is working to speed up the process however, to meet the initial October deadline set by EU officials.
- The Italian Senate approved the EUR54bn austerity plan late Wednesday (September 7). The plan now faces a vote in the Chamber of Deputies next week.
Bank Recapitalizations and Other Issues
- Key issues under consideration are European bank recapitalization, a new EU financial transaction tax and Eurobonds.
- IMF Head Lagarde’s call for an immediate recapitalization of European banks drew a stiff rebuke from European policymakers. But the signs suggest they are drawing up action plans ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on September 16.
- ECB President Trichet opposes recapitalization efforts. Incoming President Draghi, who takes over in November, seemingly backs Trichet’s stance.
- According to unconfirmed reports on Wednesday (September 7), the European Commission will delay their bank write-down plan for senior bondholders in order to prevent further market panic. A new plan, perhaps with better terms, is expected as early as October.
- European Commission President Barroso, will likely push for a new EU financial transactions tax (FTT) at the G20 meeting in November. Both the UK and Trichet have criticized the measure. The UK says it will not implement it.
- Eurobonds are still said to be off the near-term agenda. Merkel remains steadfastly opposed to such a measure, which would not exactly be a major vote winner for her.
- The head of ratings agency S&P recently noted that the rating of such issuance would be equal that of the weakest member – Greece at CC.
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September 11th, 10 year anniversary: Greek bancruptcy. Another step of the globalist elites.
massive quake hits Vancouver.
Krugman must be happy, this will reignite the stagflating canadian economy.
September 20, 2011... Palestinians present statehood bid to U.N. you know that will not be a quiet date.
a palestinian state inside either Germany or France would be a solution. Everyone would be pleased.
You have a very large, distended view of Palestine"s cause. Its Balfour whose declaration started the current imbroglio. He was neither French nor German...He represented an Empire whose interests were taken over by pax Americana. Follow the historical thread....it leads back to...Palestine. That hill must have three churches : christian, muslim and hebrew.
Then Abraham would sleep better in his grave.
That is the corner of Canada that has the least amount of people in it. The event went largely unnoticed, or even cared about by most people I know there.
An earthquake hit where?
The article said "hurracane." I think the author meant to say "shitstorm."
Wow! This shit is resembling the March Madness charts for College Basketball.... Go Georgetown!
too big not to fail, bitchez.
It is as if someone is going to finally declare that they are bankrupt. I'm looking at you BofA.
BAC bankrupt??? I believe the Oracle of Omaha would drop a turd in his bath if that were to occur.
I believe that the Oracle got assurances from The One, that taxpayers would keep BAC afloat, ad infinitum.
Well he is getting up there in years.
That is a lot of bulletpoints and many dates for a rather obvious situation. I mean does the newsflow really resemble anything other than gossip at this point? Next up is finger pointing, devaluation, trade wars, capital & price controls and finally the climax we've all been waiting for... war.
another war would definately be material
both for Obammy and for Sarkozy...relection. Tuff without a good casus belli!
Illuminati likes to pick special days. 9-11-91. George Bush senior talks about the New World order to congress. 9-11-01. Terrorist attack. 9-11-11. Greek default?
Friday 11-11-11, 11:11:11 a.m. ?
I had that same creepy thought. And I'm not even a disenfranchised nutbag.
Which timezone?
GMT+11. Solomon Islands. Or GMT-11; American Samoa.
11 is the number of fools
Go to the South of Holland on 11-11 of any year and join a big party in any small towm to celebrate foolishness and to take the piss out of their leaders.
11-11-11 is a chance of a lifetime.
Armistice declared, WWI.
http://survivingthebig1.com/annunaki-returning-11-11-11-alien-invasion-n...
just sayin
I doubt things will go as scheduled. These dominoes are going to fall at random intervals and have all kinds of things to give them that little push out of order.
Coincidence that one of the worst bankers in Europe is about to take the helm at the ECB? Mario Draghi, the governor of the Bank of Italy, will succeed Jean-Claude Trichet, whose eight-year term is ending in October. This reminds me of when Tim Geithner got promoted to Treasury Secretary after completely botching his job as NY Fed president.
Heck'uva job, Timmah!
Google Trends September 9, 2011
1. contagion 2. 9/11 3. flight 93 4. warrior 5. creature 6. michael j fox 7. al qaeda 8. freedom tower 9. osama bin laden 10. lvsContagion is an upcoming Hollywood POS featuring the Obama voting Matt Damon amongst other enlightened 'artists'.
Ironic though isn't it?
Needs more reality.
Unpunished Fuckups.
A big stupid ass pharmaceutical company that needs money and wants to buy new cars and houses, want's to charge to inject 12 year olds with a useless fucking piece of shit poison. A gay senator who hates vagina helps them. 5 stars
'A gay senator who hates vagina helps them.'
Wow. Just-wow. That is a brilliant sentence. Well played.
who the hell is michael j. fox ??
So here's the pitch for Contagion: there's like this super bug and it escapes and lots of people die and the hero stops it.
Fresh. I'd like to thank the academy.
Glad to see the proles still haven't a clue. At least some things never change.
Michael J Fox is going to blow something up?
petro-dollar kills competition in all out econmic war fare. wasn't that the plan all along?
Okay. Gotta ask:
What's the right movie to watch this weekend?
Rollover? Wall Street? Network? Dr. Strangelove? Mad Max?
I know there are some great movies to capture the mood. Ideas?
Apocalyse Now -- imagine Bernanke as Kurtz. Sweet ending.
1984
Revenge of the Nerds
Hellraiser
Soylent Green.
The original Rollerball.
Logan's Run.
Triumph of the Will
the Grapes of fucking Wrath
Sullivan's Travels also good to balance out with a little comedy :)
Repo Man
#41
thx 1138 way ahead of its time
Looks like Banzai answered it right...Pink Flamingos.
Panic in year zero. Seriously, if you haven't seen it do.
Planet of the Apes - original.
Kellys Heros. Steal gold from bank behind enemy lines.
Fight club.
Men At Work
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdQFuTQ1l5U
Oh bother.
Bottom line here: the system is too complex for anyone to grasp in terms of when the implosion will occur. This is kind of like watching a barn rot for 50 years and predicting the date it will finally collapse. Meetings over the weekend? They'll put lipstick on the PIIG and trot out v.197 of 'save Europa' plan, complete with talking heads sounding official. It really depends on when the market finally acknowledges the truth and reacts.
No doubt that the situation is looking more grim as time passes, but Uncle Ben can always lend trillions in short term liquidity to keep the ponzi going.
You forgot that they've been pulling out nails from the barn so it collapses a certain way. And once they see it start to go, they're gonna push it just right, in order to make sure.
Then they go collect on the insurance.
IRL, they burn the barn or cabin down, to collect the nails when they've cooled off.
Isn't Europe named after some chick that got raped by a bull?
BARN ROT is an EXCELLENT analogy, even better than the dilithium crystal deterioration analogy that Spock has used. Of course, if you believe that Agents of the order of the Illuminati ChicagoGanster Al Queda Mossad CIA Thetan Brotherhood and their ilk actually have some kind of control over this situation, then we start adding "nail-pulling" to the barn-rot analogy. However, if you believe that a REAL supreme being (aka: God) is in control, then the rest of these bozos are only so much competing noise, and they cancel each other out. Personally, I'll stick with God.
But this time it's lose-lose: A massive Euro zone bailout along with giant US monetary and fiscal spending plus a possible BAC bailout signals the start of more biflation. The vicious cycle takes another vicious twist, crushing buying power and margins. That's why bailouts and stimulus are experiencing diminishing returns. A trillion only buys you a month or two. The very problems it aims to fix only get worse
bingo
Are they selling tickets for that one?
I think it's supposed to be a hush-hush tryst with Euro-style sado-masochism.
Here is a little game - when any official opens their mouth, guess how many will say the exact polar opposite of what is actually happening in their brains... For example, a snapshot from today;
"Stark resigned for personal reasons",
"Central banks have unlimited firepower to quell crisis",
"Sovereign debt exposure wont force EU banks to seek funding",
"G7 welcomes Obama jobs plan",
"basic direction unchanged after Stark resignation",
"German fin min; assumes(!) that the ECB will still defend price stability".
"Europe growth trend unbroken, sees robust growth in Q3"
"No need to talk of new stimulus programs"
"Q2 slowdown due to temporary factors"
"Current pessimism exaggerated"
Yey, i got 10/10! Top score! (the disturbing thing is that i have only been playing it for 20 minutes)
you certainly scratch in the right places and sniff the right stuff!
err, yeah too much ZH, beware!
The FD (dutch Financial Times, same newsoutlet) blames the european downturn on Stark resigning, and the slump in the american equities market on scepticism towards Obama's job program.
Not a word about CDS rising, the FED's admission to go for easing, or the G7 scramble to glue the parts that are falling off back on.
Definatively a propaganda outlet.
The Final Act:
de·noue·ment also dé·noue·ment (d n -mä ). n. 1. a. The final resolution or clarification of a dramatic or narrative plot
In a short time (short being relative) you'll be able to re-write this piece replacing Greece with Illinois, Spain with California, Italy with New York, etc. The ESFS and Austerity Measures will have similarly benign sounding acronyms from a couple of pieces of shitty legislation cobbled together in the midst of panic by a corrupt and paid-for congress. The bank recapitalizations and 'other issues'? Again, just replace the names Trichet, Lagarde, etc with Geitner, Bernanke, etc and change the alphabet soup from RBS, UBS, etc to JPM, C, BAC (oh wait, doesn't seem like BAC may be around for the final dance here does it?)...
You're reading the US's future right here.
september 11 GWB revisits a school in Florida to remember what he said to those kids..."I told them Greece was a nice place to go on a dirt cheap holiday. I hope they'll take my advice next summer. Now that they are ten years older!...Those who have jobs, not those other guys...Thats what America is about...those who know how to vote without a hanging chad!"
You are correct, late Sunday morning you will see craziness start to happen because I think that something big will happen this weekend.