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Kyle Bass Best Summarizes The "Profligate Idiots" In Europe: "They Have A German Pope And An Italian Central Banker"

Tyler Durden's picture


Anyone needing a quick summary of the main tension lines in Europe as they currently stand can probably not do any better than the attached 3 minute explanation by Kyle Bass. And while he just participated in a far longer Q&A with BBC's Hardtalk program, which we will bring to you shortly, the attached video explains more in 150 seconds than a full day of watching the financial funny channel from basic cable. In a nutshell: Europe is about to see trillions in debt written down (the only mathematical explanation which makes sense, as presented for the nth time earlier by Charles Hugh Smith), the "profligate idiot" spenders of Southern Europe are not going to be bailed out by Germany, which has decided it has had enough of the "Mexican standoff" within the Eurozone, and will not be held by the short hairs any longer. And as for the quote that captures the total and utter chaos in Europe: "they have a German pope and an Italian central banker." Nuf said.


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Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:39 | 1881281 paarsons
paarsons's picture

Kyle bass rocks.

I love that guy.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:42 | 1881299 Michael
Michael's picture

Has anyone ever lived through a complete and total worldwide bond market collapse? Please tell me what it's like, all the jucy details, I really want to know. 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:58 | 1881348 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

This much shit hitting the fan at one time, will result in WW3.  The question is just when and where. 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:20 | 1881416 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Bass, give us a book, a newsletter or something more then what was offered in Boomerang - which was easily the best part of the book!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:32 | 1881622 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

to michael and interested others:  the bond market from about the early beatles to the clash (combat rock) went from roughly current (last year) yields to above 15%.  some credit risk but most adverse interest rate movement.   hands down the worst bear market in dollar or pound bonds in history, especially in real terms.

however the template that seems more appropriate, imo, is the bond market collapse in 1930-2:  a bit simplistic but it's a chart.  that time was more credit quality and less pure interest rate movement.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:48 | 1881654 PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture

O.T. and obviously a highjack...

Just out of concerned curiosity, has anyone here actually tested their gold and silver for purity on many occasions to know you have a valid source?

Are your milligram scales and volume measurements that accurate? Signed: The Concerned
Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:59 | 1881693 seek
seek's picture

Ultrasonic is way easier.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:06 | 1881705 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

seek, please expound...  Especially for coins (Gold Eagles).

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:55 | 1881764 seek
seek's picture

Ultrasonic testers measure the speed of sound in the material they are testing. There are two approaches, one is to use a UTG (ultrasonic thickness gauge, used in industry) to measure the thickness of the coin when it's set for gold; if the coin is tampered with the thickness will be off. UTGs run about $600-$900. UTGs are better for larger gold items (bars and 1 oz coins), and will detected gold-plated tungsten or lead-filled silver bars easily as the thickness indicated will be way off from what's measured with calipers. FYI, PAMP uses ultrasonic testing for quality control and Goldmoney uses it for acceptance testing.

Presumably the pure ultrasonic gold testers work as well, but I've not gotten my hands on one yet (though I recently ordered a Auracle to test out.) These rely purely on the speed of sound measured, and read out either "not gold" or the karat content. I'd stay away from the cheapies (I think Mizar is the cheap one, but reviews say it's a bit too complicated to use easily.) As a plus, it works on jewelry too. I'll let everyone know how the Auracle works out.

In any case, it's very hard to spoof ultrasonic testers because the material properties of the "fake" metals are so different. Tungsten and lead's speed of sound is way different than gold, so it really sticks out when it's gauged with one of these devices.


Wed, 11/16/2011 - 02:44 | 1881804 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

I would imagine that it will be cost prohibitive to manufacture fake 1 oz coins with tungsten or other materials. Especially maples or eagles.

Bearing in mind that you can not do that en masse, or too many times. Nonetheless, I love to have one of these testers.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:25 | 1881952 Minoan
Minoan's picture

Tungsten can easily be identified using a magnet.I would be worried only about gold plated platinum coins in the future.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:02 | 1882824 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Apologies for OT thread hijacking, but if ZH is to continue to be able to spread the word, we need to prevent this:

Please spread the word!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 02:48 | 1881811 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

@ paarsons



dewd, that blog is awesome.  is it urs?


Wed, 11/16/2011 - 04:33 | 1881894 zhandax
zhandax's picture

@Michael, far too many of the PMs now have never even seen a good bear market in bonds.  Like Jeff alluded, the last real bond bear was the 87 setup for the stock crash when the long bond dropped 30% in ~6 months.  I was on the sell side that year.  We came in, got any clients we could talk into a short position short, and then went to drink lunch until 5 when we went back to the office to pick up our briefcases.  That event was more internationally flavored as the Japanese were heralded for taking down most of the Jun 86 long bond refunding at a then rally low 7.16%.  The buy and hold among them didn't get above water for seven years.

Also, as Jeff mentions, the 30's event was more credit than interest rate driven.  Uncle Warren was born that year, so I doubt there are too many traders left who remember how that felt.  It didn't attract as much attention because 1) most people don't understand bonds, 2) the stock jockeys are the ones who jump out of windows and they did that they year before and 3) bond traders prefer pistols to windows.  Jeff, don't discount the 30's event as credit driven too greatly; the train wreck we are watching is obviously credit driven.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 05:02 | 1881901 Michael
Michael's picture

Love may be too strong a word for your analysis, but I have extreme liking for it.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 02:45 | 1881793 Michael
Michael's picture

Thanks for the info Jeff.

I love it when my plans come together.

The self destruct sequence for the international banking cartel has been initiated and there is no fail safe mechanism in place.

Complete and total destruction of the cartel is 100% guaranteed. Thank You God.


Wed, 11/16/2011 - 03:25 | 1881849 Michael
Michael's picture

People should really and truly try to understand the laws of exponential functions.

I suggest you watch this whole series;

The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (part 1 of 8)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 03:43 | 1881863 Michael
Michael's picture

Thank God China has enough spare housing already built in their country to last them a decade, even if they don't build another single house or condo till then.

That should keep them off our backs for a while cause they'll still be pretty comfortable for a while. They even got the worlds largest dam in the world out of the deal, The Three Gorges Dam.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:39 | 1881964 pelagivore
pelagivore's picture

This is great, thanks for posting.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:33 | 1881626 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

This guy is way wrong. His reasoning for Germany to not going all in is because "it would not benefit Germany in the long run." That is terrible reasoning. When has the long run made a difference to these politicians and bankers? The question he should be asking is "if Germany goes all in, will it benefit the politicians and bankers in the SHORT RUN?" And the answer is yes, because the malinvestments will be kept hidden.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:54 | 1881685 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

And the real consequence to Germany opting out is the collapse of the entire banking system of the western there's going to be no pressure from anybody else / sarc.

Just in case anyone doesn't understand what I'm saying, I mean if Germany doesn't bail out the Euro, your money doesn't come out of the ATM, you can't get your cash at the bank, your money in the SLV will be unredeemable, you're pension is gone, you're mortgage is no longer, your student loans are taken care of, social security doesn't come, food stamps don't work, your government job can't pay you, etc.,...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 02:55 | 1881810 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Don't be silly Mr. Silver. You just print your own money. Lira, drachma, escudo, peseta etc. And Germany will go back to the Mark. The political opposition loves to see Merkel on a stake. 

France will be the first bitch to reintroduce the Franc as the French banks own all those bonds that will collapse.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:38 | 1881963 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Excuse me sir but Dick Bove said I would be just fine.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:18 | 1881726 Dineroguru
Dineroguru's picture

Couldn't agree more with your logic!  You can default to what would be the easiest way out and thats what the political clowns will do especially with the banksters blowing sweet nothings in their ears....It wll work for maybe six months....but that is better than the alternative to the spineless crowd in power....

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:18 | 1881727 spanky bernanke
spanky bernanke's picture

The short term and the long term have melded.


It's that impending.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:22 | 1881445 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Even worse, it will be mostly staged.  Large scale depopulation... it's in the cards.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:37 | 1881489 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Shh...don't ruin the (morbidly) exciting part.

The rest is just...


Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:42 | 1881506 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

History is the set of lies agreed upon. - Napoleon Bonaparte

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:53 | 1881528 Manthong
Manthong's picture


?? Looks like Celente got caught in the MF mess.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:42 | 1881504 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

It'll start with someone asking for gold as collateral for loans.  All of a sudden it won't just be tradition anymore

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:59 | 1881543 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Hasn't Germany already been asked that?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:16 | 1881587 SHEEPFUKKER

In an honorable society, that would be the way to do it. But in this one, what is the point of bonds? Just print the f'ing money and there you go. 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:44 | 1881510 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I think this is the elephant in the room that doesn't get enough notice. Lesser things have led to massively destructive wars in the past.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:08 | 1881706 MarcusLCrassus
MarcusLCrassus's picture

Judging from the troop movements and saber rattling, Iran. 


Here's what's likely:


- Israel bombs Iran to take out nuclear facilities. 

- Iran mobilizes and calls all their Arab neighbors to help them. 

- US jumps in on the side of Israel, maybe even gets NATO to join.

- Russia jumps in on the side of Iran.

- A conventional 'hot war' begins.  Maybe even just a proxy war.  No nukes, but lots of killing on both sides. 

- China sits in the back eating popcorn and selling weapons to both sides, happily watching its rivals kill eachother off and spend all their money in the process.  They would, intelligently, only accept gold or Yuan as payment.  

- China emerges as the sole remaining superpower in the world, similar to how the US was after WWII. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:09 | 1881712 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No US land war in Iran.  You can rest assured that will not happen.  Much of the rest of your scenario is certainly possible.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:32 | 1881740 spanky bernanke
spanky bernanke's picture

China is defaulting on it's own debt as we post, internally.


Oh, and Obama moving in to help Israel, not going to happen.


Of course if they elect some dufus repub to the office then the senerio may get a bit of a nod. 


China isn't in good enough shape. It can't manage as an economy that can't export.

Read, China Finanacial Markets link at top left. Then "some predictions for the rest of the decade".

China has no internal market.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 23:43 | 1885669 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

A U.S. president not "move in to help" Israel? Wha?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 03:13 | 1881836 vato poco
vato poco's picture

You saying the Commander in Chief. B. Hussein, will commit US troops and materiel in a large-scale shootin' war

a) to help the one country on earth he despises more than the US b) by bombing and killing his beloved moslem warriors on a grand scale - none of this "2 or 3 guys a week via predator" jive c) with an election coming up?

I dawn theeenk so, Luthy. Sure, dipshit-in-chief Barry takes his orders from his bankster puppetmasters just like all the assholes in D.C. do, but even as scummy as he is, there are just some Rubicons he ain't gonna cross. Your scenario has him crossing *3* of them. Not likely.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 03:25 | 1881848 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Obama binLaden will do as he is told.

Nothing more...nothing less!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:08 | 1881942 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

You get it.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:26 | 1882660 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Iran might call their Arab neighbors to join them. But you have to remember that i) Iranians aren't Arabs (they're Persians), and most of the Arab states are run by despots who rely on the US for their power, and iii) Iran are Shia, so the Sunni states won't give a damn what happens to them. Syria, Iraq, Hezbollah, Hamas... yes, they might heed the call, but the other Arab states will either stay neutral or help the US, covertly or even overtly if they think the blow to Iran will be sufficiently crushing that Iran's ability to retaliate will be deferred for a generation. This is why, if there is an attack on Iran, I think Israel and the US will go 'all in' - they can't afford to do anything less, Iran's retaliation would be too costly.

Russia would never openly go to war with the US. It is too militarily weak. Supply lots of high-end anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, and achieve a strategic rebalancing between itself and the US, as well as some tasty revenge for the US supplying the stinger missiles that drove the Soviets out of Afghanistan? Now, that I can believe.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:17 | 1881384 TimmyM
TimmyM's picture

So Michael, your'e big picture thinking about the end game of the global fiat credit ponzi. Obviously fiat money is a confidence game. Legacy thinking of the hard money crowd has always had the end game market discipline mechanism as some populist notion of individual's sound money acceptance. But the individual is no longer the vortex of finance. In our modern system of digitized money with all it's convenient features and central government hegemonic sponsorship it is difficult to grasp the seminal event that tips the balance of the confidence game away from digitized fiat. Old habits are hard to break and the sheeple appear disengaged from monetary reality.

Recent history has afforded us strong clues of what a modern collapse of systemic confidence will look like. The institutional collateral margin call is a glaring example of system vulnerability. How easy we forget LTCM, Bear Stearns, Lehman and now MF Global. Yet, in the fiat ponzi world there appears to be no limit to sovereign collateral creation and liquidity injection.

Wether it is securitization programs, repo finance, interest rate swaps, special purpose vehicles or credit default swaps, this financialization of our economy is all just more shadow banking leverage. This on and off-balance sheet leverage must all be funded with some assigned collateral attached.

The shadow banking system lives and dies on collateral values. And the current global ponzi requires almost no buffer for sovereign assets. The shadow banking system has very little buffer. There is little or no equity buffer in repo haircuts, overcollateralization of securitizations, or collateral calls in the swaps markets. The only mechanisms sustaining institutional systemic confidence are central bank liquidity and the collateral call. And the collateral call has increasingly been met by limitless sovereign issuance.

So we are left with institutional system confidence entirely dependent on unlimited growth of sovereign collateral. But also, we are left with the assumption that sovereign collateral will not deteriorate in value. Certainly, the tax authority and the monetization ability of sovereigns appears limitless when compared to the cash flow support of collateral in the private economy-yet, we are now seeing the limits of sovereign collateral growth.

For indeed, there are limits to the growth of sovereign collateral. Having witnessed the replacement of the private sector credit bubble with a public sector credit bubble, the sovereign periphery crises warns of the end of the sovereign credit bubble. As weaker sovereign guarantees are replaced by the guarantees of reserve currencies, the relative value of the most debased reserve currencies decline versus oil, land or precious metals. This is not the type of inflation normally fought by central bankers because the crowded out real economy only allows for real appreciation in precious metals.

Ironically, the very shadow banking system that benefits those operators of the growth of financialization like global investment banks; is a system that grows dependent upon precious metal collateral to survive. Precious metals become the last collateral standing as the only collateral that cannot be debased. While many of these operators in the global fiat ponzi have found comfort in their ability to extort seemingly endless sovereign collateral to further their schemes, it's debasement will diminish it's relative use for collateral calls. 

And so, it will not be the man in the street that demands sound money. It will be the institutional counter-party that ironically destroys his own fiat game as he demands the last collateral standing.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:18 | 1881431 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It means that we will have to have a war in order to keep our respected countries from splintering from no money, no promises kept and no one going to jail.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:49 | 1881669 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I for one would rather go to prison than fight for the bankers

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 09:08 | 1882091 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Let's hope the soldiers feel that way too. Talk about societal upheaval if they start another war in the middle east for no reason. The American people simply won't put up with it in my opinion. I know I won't.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 10:51 | 1882520 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



The longest war in American history is the current war in Afghanistan.  95% of Americans do not know the reason for the war.  American people are "putting up with it" just fine.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:31 | 1882677 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Unfortunately, you appear to be correct. Eventually, the sheep will get the idea, and revolt, but it may take more than killing a few (hundred thousand) 'ragheads' off-stage to bring it about. Sadly.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:23 | 1881448 Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Fantastic Writeup. Concise and clear and reasonable.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:37 | 1881640 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ TimmyM  

I agree with Mr. D. Jones re your really nice & concise analysis of the lack of real collateral to support our paper heavy (and electrons at the bank heavy) financial system.

Gold at FOFOA's $55,000 would be very nice collateral if it comes to that.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 06:32 | 1881929 Crash N. Burn
Crash N. Burn's picture

 Probably why in the last minutes of the hardtalk interview (not posted yet) Kyle advises people to buy gold and guns (should have included grub).

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 06:57 | 1881939 N57Mike
N57Mike's picture

... ditto .... this is why I read ZH, three times a day.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:37 | 1881641 JR
JR's picture

When the bankers can no longer asset-strip value from the economy via fiat money, as you say, they’ll be going for the gold. In the meantime, they already have proven that when dangerous spikes in the price of gold threaten trading houses, the central banks will move to dampen the gold price lest it damage their precious international banks.

Reference:  Did Gordon Brown Sell UK's Gold To Keep AIG And Rothschild Solvent; More Disclosures On How The NY Fed Manipulates Gold Prices | Zero Hedge |

Excerpt from Zero Hedge:

In the never ending saga of new disclosure of gold price manipulation, here is the most recent pearl, courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain:

In front of 3 witnesses, Bank of England Governor Eddie George spoke to Nicholas J. Morrell (CEO of Lonmin Plc) after the Washington Agreement gold price explosion in Sept/Oct 1999.

“Mr. George said ‘We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K.’”

Makes one wonder just how much the gold price was pushed down today alone to make Gordon Brown's most recent budget reception a little more palatable. It also confirms yet again, that there is no such thing as an unmanipulated gold market. Lastly, it demands the question: on how many other occasions has the UK's massively unpopular prime minister sacrificed his people's interest merely to make criminal organizations such as AIG whole?

Jesse also speculates that Gordon Brown sold UK's gold at the lowest price in the past 20 years, a thorny topic touched upon earlier by the Telegraph, simply to bail out mega banking empire Rothschild and, surprise, AIG, as well as who knows how many other members of the LBMA…

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 03:54 | 1881873 Seer
Seer's picture

"it is difficult to grasp the seminal event that tips the balance of the confidence game away from digitized fiat."

Well, yes and no.  Both based in a lack of participation.

I can easily see this as larger numbers of people no longer work for the corporatocracy and are "unemployed."  The corporate system is the one that's pushing the ones and zeros in all the "bank" accounts.  The first move was in delinking from the mortgage stream- foreclosures, much likely due to job loss and or accumulation of too much other debt (there goes credit!).

There WILL be a tipping point.  Whether we actually note it or not is the only question.

The slow bleed of people leaving the corporate (credit) system may either drag on and blurr the "event," or it may be the "last straw" (when systems are predicated on growth it's kind of hard to continue to operate under severe contractionary conditions).

The disillusionment will stick for a LONG time, and I suspect that this model will never really be employed again (perhaps positive for PMs).

The ONLY thing in the end that'll keep participation high (though "high enough" would necessitate growth, and I'm just not seeing this as possible) is in some sort of forced "humanitarian aid" scenario of providing basic food and medical supplies (which, ultimately, because it's only piling on the unsustainable, will collapse).

Just know, however, that the official banking system only represents about 1/4 of the world's total economic activity.  Bad systems cannot rule, they WILL fail.

I'm thinking that the "event" already took place.  What's happening now is a slow progression out of the "credit system."  Meanwhile TPTB continue to play the Monopoly Game- everyone else has more important things to do, like survive.  Last one out please turn off the lights...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 01:24 | 1885833 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

Not here to start a pissing contest with anyone .... but there has to be a 'catalyst' for a bond market crater the size of early 1930s.

In early 1931, the 'markets' and over all economics were unsteady but cautiously recovering from October 1929 US equity crash.  But YOU CANNOT PRESENT AN ANALYIS comparing an earlier time to the present in a factual or circumstantial VACUUM ... that is tantamount to 'scamming'.  

What precipitated the really very very serious crash & collapse of Fall/End of 1931 was Creditanstaldt.  There were rumors that post-WW1 Austria and Germany were to form a 'customs union (quite logical in many ways) but the French and some others deemed this a violation of the Versailles Treaty they began to withdraw their deposits with high interest bearing deposits that were funding high interest growth loans in central/estern europe.   This collapsed Creditanstaldt ... and then any reasonable bank in eastern europe...then the collpase fed itself and spread to France and UK.   Western European bankers and investors had to pull their deposits from NY banks and demanded gold versus dollars as US$ was still fully convertible and since French/UK banks could no longer convert and those currencies were ofrced off gold standards.  This started & caused the very serious death spiral of bank runs/collapses that engulfed the USA at the very end of 1931 (60 days) ....and it started with the NY internationally -oriented banks then sucked in all the others as the dominoes fell.

the Creditanstaldt collapse was the severe catalyst that started it all ...... now you can entertain a bond collapse and any other collpase you want ... but do not throw a chart up and compare 1907 or 1931 when you completely ignore the primary catalyst that started the chain reaction.

Last ...whether EU collapse is a 'Creditnstaldt' possible catalyst is above my pay grade to assess.  I have asked many economists/financial authors to visit this possibility .... no takers I will not be so foolish to speculate.   But I sure hope not ....



Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:50 | 1881325 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"Got em by the short hairs" now that's something you don't hear on the BBC everyday.  Kyle Bass does rock, and I like his gold and sniper rifles investment strategy, plus the guy stockpiled $1 million dollars worth of nickles.  Crazy like a fox.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:03 | 1881364 sabra1
sabra1's picture

you forgot about the beavers!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:17 | 1881400 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Somebody pointed out here at ZH that not even Kyle's impressive compound would not stand for long against REALLY BAD GANGS in a hard TEOTWAWKI.  Yes, he could hold them off for awhile, but not forever, not even with sniper rifles.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:24 | 1881453 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Every castle can be taken.  It comes down to risk vs. reward.  How many men are you willing to lose in your attempt to take it?  With Kyle's kind of money I would have a heliocopter or an Abrams A1M1 tank to bug out in, if things got too hot at the compound.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:32 | 1881625 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

He has nickels.  Lots of nickels.  He will give them to everyone trying to cross the moat and they'll sink.  Brilliant!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:35 | 1881632 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Can he kill fire with those guns?  Then he can't last long at all

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:41 | 1881647 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The short answer, trav, is it depends on the nature of his compound and defenses.  If he has a lot of earth protecting his abode and little / no vegetation right next to it, he might be good to go until overwhelmed by The Golden Horde / Mutant Zombie Bikers.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:51 | 1881676 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Unorganized gangs of bandits go after easy targets. It takes an organized army to take down a castle or compound

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 03:21 | 1881843 vato poco
vato poco's picture

That's the first sensible, specific (as opposed to that "know your enemy" pablum that boneheads have been calling genius for a millennia) thing you've said in 1300 years, Mr. Tzu. Or Mr. Sun. Whatever.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 03:59 | 1881879 Seer
Seer's picture

Trojan Horse anyone?

Water will eventually wear through the thickest rock.  That is, relentless scouring will do its damage.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:20 | 1881947 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Go to a place like Poland and see how the castles from 1K years ago are set up. They are on the high ground, a commanding view of the surrounding area, and there are not two in one area, because the castle owner was King in his area, and either he was toppled and the next guy moved in, or he remained King. The castles have water and food storage and could hold out for a year or more. Tunnels for bugging out if things got bad. Note they made them from stone. Under threat they brought in the people and livestock. I think zombie gangs from the slums will hit suburban homes and store etc before they try to take on any kind of defended installation, if a crazy mad max thing happened, which I don't see coming from a financial crisis. The depression had no real social collapse, just the bonus marchers etc, something like OWS. Think this way - you are a gang banger roaming the countryside looking for food and snatch. You find a property with human heads mounted on poles and rotting at the border/perimeters. Are you going to say, hey guys, let's attack this guy, he has guns and stuff. Nope, I think you are going to move on.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:16 | 1881423 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

For Kyle it's beavers, for me it's gophers.  Little fuckers ruined my tomato plants this year and most of the rest of my garden.  Next year it's all out war on the "Gopher Cong", like Carl in Caddyshack. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:15 | 1881560 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture


Go get yourself a few kilos of those really cheap and big old chewy 'gummy bears' from your local costco.  Put out hand fulls around any holes you find in your garden area.  Replenish them if you see them gone.  Give it a few weeks and the gophers will be gone.

You will know they are dead underground when the 'gummy bears' nolonger are eaten.

Makes one wonder what the hell is in that "candy". 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:12 | 1881720 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Worth trying at the greenhouse. Thanks.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 02:34 | 1881794 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Some wild critters up here in the mountains are very useful out in the "garden".

Just one of the neighbors...

And as reported on Russian TV...

The bears...

The product...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 09:51 | 1882229 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Gummy Bears will be added to the arsenal.  I have the poison pellets, too.  Neighbor's cats do a pretty good job getting one or two per week that he knows of.  If they weren't so close to the buildings, I would go with one of these (plus they look like a bunch of fun!)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 02:45 | 1881799 greenbear
greenbear's picture

Really?  Gummy bears... Go figure.  If it also works with moles you'll have made my dad a very happy man; His battles with moles are epic.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:44 | 1881750 spanky bernanke
spanky bernanke's picture

You need to invest in a gopher dog.


Long on returns.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:17 | 1881428 Mr. Mandelbrot
Mr. Mandelbrot's picture

I'd save in nickels too if I knew a refiner who would help me circumnavigate the new no-melt laws . . .

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:36 | 1881485 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

No need to melt them.  No one melts pre-64 silver coins, because they know their value already.  The same will be true of nickles, which are 75% copper and 25% nickel.  Soon they will be nickel clad zinc.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:32 | 1881623 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I'm keeping nickels in one gallon plastic milk jugs.  And just started my second liter bottle of pre-1982 copper pennies.  Yes, I even sort my change, pretty pathetic it looks I know, but it helps me, to a degree, maintain a mindset that waste is not good, that saving IS good.

This of course does not interfere with my hoarding of other metals...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:35 | 1881630 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

You have someone to buy your nickels?  Most will offer 5 cents.  I knew an Irish bloke named Penny Nichols.  He had a sixth cent.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:12 | 1881661 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I'm thinking of the future here, Piraña.  As a kid in 1965, I had no idea that it would have been REALLY REALLY SMART to hoover up all those silver quarters and dimes.

TEOTWAWKI happens, base metals will be worth something under almost any scenario.  Plus, as I mentioned, it helps my MINDSET.

Pass along my greetings to your Irish bloke (?) named Penny with his sixth cent!

FYI, in 1981 I had piraña for breakfast while in the jungle in Peru.  Bony little guys.  Hey, it was either him or me!  I hope he wasn't a relative...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:30 | 1881617 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Brilliant analysis TimmyM...and didn't Kyle Bass encourage University of Texas to go bigand take delivery on gold?  Smart boy that Kyle Bass. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:34 | 1881628 Mark123
Mark123's picture

yup...totally rocks, but is that his real name?  Kyle Bass???


Bet you he got teased something fierce in school.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 05:07 | 1881903 Beastmanager
Beastmanager's picture

"You know how screwed up Europe is when you have an Italian central banker and a German pope".

We are only missing what? No democracy in Greece? Oh... wait...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:10 | 1881931 The Axe
The Axe's picture

every night ZH predicts a crash, and every fucking morning the ECB or the Fed PPT gets busy buying every fucking bond they can, putting in some fucking basement ....kicking the can down the road again.. and again...the market becomes more broken by the day.        this seasaw is making me crazy.....Oh..I get it Obama is going to blame Europe as a easy way to get reelcted....ok that works


Wed, 11/16/2011 - 10:47 | 1882506 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Miss Montague -- nice legs.

And of course, Bass is spot-on with his observations and the likely course for Germany.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:32 | 1884554 Jeff the Gorilla
Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:41 | 1881293 Future Tense
Future Tense's picture

Kyle Bass may be the most clear mind in the financial world today.  He has clearly passed everyone around him in the "subprime short" camp as he continues to make incredible returns on the European collapse.

Michael Lewis had an incredible conversation with him in the opening chapter of his new book, summarized here:

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:52 | 1881336 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Many thanks for that--I missed it back in Oct.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:07 | 1881386 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Great.. only fucking kidding me...


Wed, 11/16/2011 - 04:08 | 1881881 Seer
Seer's picture

From the article:

We hopped into his Hummer, decorated with bumper stickers (God Bless Our Troops, Especially Our Snipers)

So much for evolution...  (Gott Mit Uns?)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:59 | 1881989 spankfish
spankfish's picture

Für Deutschland zu sterben ist uns höchste Ehr'

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:01 | 1881346 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Kyle Bass + Herman Cain + DSK + Rick Perry for President

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:18 | 1881359 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture


Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:05 | 1881371 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

I actually posted the above as a joke then went to edit it and it was too late :(

I originally meant Ron Paul + Hugh Hendry + Eric Sprott + John Embry + Dan Norcini + ... you get the gist.

The above post was sarcasm.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:06 | 1881380 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My Sarcasm Meter barely functions...

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:09 | 1881393 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Hey DoChen, long time no comment!

Crazy month few months eh?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:13 | 1881409 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Indeed re crazy!  I had a crazy Friday night with my wife, I mention it at my blog.  The song alone is worth the visit!


"Papa l'Americano", putaz!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:15 | 1881418 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Here's the song!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:42 | 1881505 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

I Prefer Bob Sinclar's mix of far l'amore.. much better than that song:

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:28 | 1881612 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Here's the ORIGINAL in Italian, from a long time ago:

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:08 | 1881391 blindman
blindman's picture

ron paul? who is ron paul?
why two first names?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:50 | 1881760 spanky bernanke
spanky bernanke's picture

ron paul? who is ron paul?
why two first names?


Really, seriously?


Ron Paul is the only guy who they will assasinate if he wins the Repub nod.


The rest means buisness as usual. And buisness is good.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:05 | 1881375 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

no more Presidents thanks, not even Kyle Bass

no more leaders, no more windbags or charlatans, no more political parties, no more Gods

...if you're looking to be led get some fuking nappies and find a surrogate Mum until you grow up

...decide for yourself, don't let anoyone decide for you

Lead yourself or top yourself ...make a decision

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:10 | 1881398 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture



Wed, 11/16/2011 - 04:11 | 1881884 Seer
Seer's picture

Spot on!

No gods, no masters.  And this goes to corporate worship as well.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:06 | 1881377 sabra1
sabra1's picture

howdy doody! now there's a real puppet!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:18 | 1881430 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I tried to read that book and it sucked so bad i burned it. The part about "sex in Iceland" was really not well presented either. Anywho NOT "'nuff said" NUMB NUTS. The fact of the matter is "EUROPE WILL ABROGATE." That's a term for "reneging on the repayment of said debt." The "CDS thingy" was "just for starters" as they say. Without the CDS they have no way of ever PAYING their debt in the first place, so saying this is not some "revolutionary thought"...unless of course you're Kyle Bass and you have billions in notional value of the worthless shit paper. OH WELL. We once owned "excite@home" stock...and guess what! it WENT TO ZERO. It was a first. We'd never had that happen before. In the middle of the boom no less! Who knew! Now fast forward to "the debt bubble of today" --and well, "OF COURSE THAT CAN'T GO TO ZERO!" Stick with Groupon...if you got in early of course.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:44 | 1881306 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Seriously....people are only understanding this now..? Bass has already taken his profits then.... Built his moat.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:05 | 1881316 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

ECB sterilization criticality approaching faster than expected.. criticality within weeks...


p.s.  The ECB will monetize.. The 0.1% (ogliarchial collectivism) will ensure it.  Equity markets for the middle class are like the State lottery for the gentiles.  It serves to distract. The middle-upper middle class plays the market lottery, unaware of their material conditions.  That they too are labor for the 0.1%, and expendable, but serve as a buffer from the plebes.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:48 | 1881319 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i guess we are missing the french police man and the british chef.  maybe we can find an irish rabbi and a swedish mafioso?


Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:15 | 1881419 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

He stole the pope and central banker line. Or maybe it's a repeat? Swore I read it elsewhere, anyone?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:48 | 1881320 SHEEPFUKKER

More like a Catholic preist. 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:48 | 1881321 Anne Ominous
Anne Ominous's picture

Europe to take it up the bASS is hardly 'new' news... enter the bond collapse stage right.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:49 | 1881324 longshortflat
longshortflat's picture

ZH:   Here's the video I think you are looking for.

KYLE BASS interview

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 08:46 | 1882059 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Nice. The catalyst award was a fucking iPad! Lolz. @ 58:30

Talk about the deer in the headlight look:

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:58 | 1881334 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Bass is a tool: Glenn Beck or Sean Hannity, or even Kosher Jones, could have told us that.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:21 | 1881434 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

when your book is worthless..."start talking it with the media." read Boomerang of course...but you can throw it out once your done.

I do recommend "Five Chiefs" by Justice John Paul Stevens of course. "He's a free speech guy"...and one of history's great jurists.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:50 | 1881519 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Oh gee, I must have forgot, it's the Vatican with all the power. And Monti really wasn't the head of the Trilateral Commission in Italy. It's just a German and Italian thing.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:18 | 1881590 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

who? never heard of 'em....

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 06:37 | 1881932 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

He's a racist too. "Where I come from we call it a Mexican Standoff".

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 08:38 | 1882037 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Oh relax `Vote down` crew. It's a joke.

The reality is that Bass does not understand how long 'The End' can be prolonged.

And that's the kingpin issue.

But I hope he lives no where near Glenn because when TSHTF that area of Texas will be under siege by the masses who have been lied to and deceived by the paid for mouthpiece of the Lizard People.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:52 | 1881335 blindman
blindman's picture

@ "german pope and italian central banker."
wasn't that a description of hell, somewhere
back a year or two. ... ?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:58 | 1881349 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i belive the standard joke is something like - heaven is the british police, the french chef, the italian lover and the german engineer.  hell is ....



Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:41 | 1881649 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I dunno...hell is pretty much the british in any of those other roles

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 04:16 | 1881888 Seer
Seer's picture

No, you're confusing Hell with the Insane Asylum.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:58 | 1881352 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Yes; IIRC the chef was British.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:53 | 1881337 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

The Libor-OIS represents the angst banks feel about lending to each other (anxiety about bank exposure to the Eurozone)

These are signs that not all is well, despite the stupid dog stock market trying to chase end-of-the-year return on capital performance (and ignoring the gigantic return of capital risks).

Also, Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield is 7.07%

In addition, Spain was unable to borrow the maximum 3.5B euros it wished to do — and investors ended up demanding the Spanish government to pay an expensive 5% interest rate for supposedly risk-free 12-month loans. Belgium too didn’t sell the maximum debt on offer.

But perhaps the most important — and worrying — is that the gap between France and Germany borrowing costs widened to a record high levels. France is a main guarantor of EFSF that suppose to bailout PIIGS, Italy and Spain, and now France, Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands (France to bailout France and everyone else).

Austria Has a Déjà Vu Moment

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:54 | 1881344 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Also a good video for those who haven't seen it  "An INTENSE moment of TRUTH with MAINSTREAM media"

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:10 | 1881397 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Dylan had his Howard Beal moment, then they gave him some time off to "work on his book".  Kudos to MSNBC for not canceling his show after that rant, but I am sure there was a long meeting after that show.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:12 | 1881408 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

I know. To be a fly on the wall in that meeting...

Pop Quiz:

  • WTF was said in the meeting after that appearance?
Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:58 | 1881351 blindman
blindman's picture

here it is. the joke.
Heaven and Hell

Heaven Is Where:

The French are the chefs
The Italians are the lovers
The British are the police
The Germans are the mechanics
And the Swiss make everything run on time

Hell is Where:

The British are the chefs
The Swiss are the lovers
The French are the mechanics
The Italians make everything run on time
And the Germans are the police

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:29 | 1881470 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

pretty good for finding that in braille - and the rest of us are living it.

and let's make room for the affirmative action become president.


Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:04 | 1881704 natty light
natty light's picture

I remember when the Euro was starting the Wall Street Journal put that in an article, except I remember it as:

In Heaven:

The French are the cooks,

The Italians are the lovers,

The British are the police, and 

The Germans are in charge.

In Hell:

The British are the cooks,

The Germans are the lovers,

The French are the police, and

The Italians are in charge.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 22:59 | 1881353 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Bass is kicking' ass: "The PIIGS have sailed into the zone of insolvency…When you sail into the zone of insolvency, there is no "solution". The only solution is… you have to pay the bills…These debts have to be written down."

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:00 | 1881357 Misean
Misean's picture

A German Pope and an Italian Central Bankster trump a French beer...

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:05 | 1881374 chump666
chump666's picture

"mexican stand off" damn fine quote re: EZ.  He is 100% right about Germany NOT going all in, thus the ECB not going all in.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:06 | 1881378 blindman
blindman's picture

profligate idiocy can easily be neutered by the
proper purchase of the right cds. there, problem solved.
move along to the next vacation spot. no?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:11 | 1881405 Misean
Misean's picture

The profligate idiots outlawed CDS...

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:21 | 1881436 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

"It's not a credit event."

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:27 | 1881463 blindman
blindman's picture

the profligate idiots created the cds! no?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:49 | 1881517 blindman
blindman's picture

the fiat money system, private, etc... does not work
and demands no respect as it is fatally and fundamentally
flawed and as excrement needs be disregarded till such
time the people can convert it into either energy or
nutrients for "lesser" forms of life: bacteria, our
foundational life form / or god's grammar and manifest
primer ........
that is the debts are based on lies. the lies that
make bankers your masters. i say seek the truth and
set yourself and all men and women. etc... free of
the lords, aka bankers. be. your. self. be. self.
some one said it.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:07 | 1881383 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

PIIGS: Welfare states

US: Corporate Welfare state

Both blew up from over-indebtedness 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:07 | 1881385 Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

Bass is suoerficially correct from a traders point of view but doesn't tell the hell of what comes next. Heed his words, he is sharp but not deep.

May I beg indulgence please: Australia is under threat. The US President Obama has arrived here today to sign an Agreement for the Permananet Military Occupation of Australia and inseperate news briefings he has intimated multi-billion investements in those military bases (and infrastructure). In other words, Austrlaia has been sold by our "leadership" to the US. As we have been lied to by our government it has been also stated that the purpose of these arrangements is to confront China. During the past few days Obama has been heightening his rhetoric on China to a pitch that leads to War - from Australian soil. I have listed x3 links below of Australians who do not accept this arrangment as we have heard the calls to nuclear War by the neocon hawks and wannabees and we see our future as either being totally glassed over or a steamy banana republic run by US corporate interests under the gun barrels of the US boots.


We need to get the message out to the Internet World that we are under invasion just like Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanstan, Libya etc., so please help spread the word, which may be our last. Drones come next, we have no arms and we are defenseless.

Verbewarp is my Blog. Thank you all and also good luck to us all.
Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:25 | 1881454 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Arm yourselves. #occupysydney

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:57 | 1881539 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

Sorry mate downtick for you - and your ilk are one of the reasons I immigrated. Personally I'd be more concerned about the 240 million muslims living north of Darwin than a 1,000 US marines stationed on Australian soil. The only fucking drone around is you.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:52 | 1881677 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Aquarius

I would have to with Desert Irish here.  1000 Americans gonna take YOU GUYS down?  Please...  And he is right about Indonesia, lots more problems if you get YOUR version of our Haitian boat people.  LOTS more problems.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 05:27 | 1881913 jomama
jomama's picture

surprised to see that you're an islamophobe.

that's disheartening to say the least.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:11 | 1881572 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

awww. I'm sorry to hear this! Let me guess: "and the women are having sex with men other than me" as well. For the record "i've tried protesting too." It didn't help.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 01:02 | 1881702 chump666
chump666's picture

The US is broke.  Forget it. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 07:23 | 1881950 Trying to Understand
Trying to Understand's picture

The Aussie problem isn't what's coming, it is what you h ave already allowed to happen. just may give you more insight as to why your citizenry no longer have a "true" voice in your government.

And just so the rest of the world doesn't feel "left out":

Existing Continental Unions

European Union:

African Union:

Union of South American Nations:

Pacific Union:

Caribbean Community:

Central Asian Union:

Asian Union:

Mediterranean Union/The Middle East Union:

South American Union:

Planned Continental Unions North American Free Trade Agreement, North American Union, North American Leadership Summit, and now the "Inter-American Democratic Charter": Obama: "We support a leading role for the Organization of American States (OAS) as we work together to strengthen implementation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter."

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 23:08 | 1881390 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Profligate idiot spenders ?

Italy does not have a big defecit

Ireland is running a current account surplus.

Its the Germans that made the losses baby - they want to externalize their malinvestments so as to prevent political carnage on home gound.

Its Time to Sink the Bismarck

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 00:14 | 1881580 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

It took the English a long time on that one. And they had to get lucky to boot! Eventually it succumbed however...was there ever a better made Battleship? Of course "leave it to a bi-plane of World War I vintage."

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