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Kyle Bass: "Don't Sell Your Gold"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The mainstream media seem willing to sound the all-clear and bring us back from Defcon-3 on the back of what can generously be described by realists willing to look at the actual data as a 'murky' NFP print. The market's reaction seems modestly QE-off (with rates up decently) but the only modest drop in Gold appears to fit with a lack of conviction in the data (especially given the EUR sell-off on Papademos chatter). It seems, as Bloomberg reports, Kyle Bass is right to take the longer-view when he notes today "I'm against selling any of the gold" in UTIMCO's portfolio, pointing out the mounting risks from government deficits in US and Europe, "as every day goes by, I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need." Summing up the reality of our global situation, one of Bass's colleagues adds "This is a grand experiment and they typically never end well."

YTD performance of Silver, Gold, S&P 500, and the Long Bond.

and today's reaction in context this week.

Chart: Bloomberg

 

Kyle Bass Urges Texas Endowment Fund to Hold Gold Hedge as Assets Shrink

Kyle Bass, the Dallas hedge-fund manager, urged overseers of Texas (STOTX1)’s state university endowment, the second-largest U.S. college fund, to stick with a $1 billion investment in gold bullion even as the fund’s assets decline.

 

“I’m against selling any of the gold,” Bass said today at a meeting of fund directors in Austin, citing the need for a hedge against mounting risks driven by government deficits in the U.S. and Europe. “As every day goes by, I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need.”

 

...

 

The Fed’s governors, led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, “are scared as they can be of deflation,” said Ardon Moore, president of Lee M. Bass Inc., an energy company in Fort Worth, Texas. “This is a grand experiment and they typically never end well.”

 

...

 

Kyle Bass, a managing partner at Hayman Capital Management LP and a Utimco trustee who isn’t related to Lee Bass, faulted the world’s biggest central banks for expanding the money supply by what he said was $15 trillion during the past five years. In April, he advised the fund on holding gold bars rather than futures contracts.

 

Gold futures for April delivery, the most-active contract traded on the Comex today in New York, touched $1,763.80 an ounce, the highest price since Dec. 2. The metal, which reached a record $1,923.70 on Sept. 6, climbed 11 percent last month, the biggest January rally since 1983.

 


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Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Kyle Bass: "Don't Sell Your Gold"

OK... You've convinced me...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Gold just had its best January in 32 years!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

one month, cold month, gold month; will it turn to blow month next month? Or will it stay glow month?

I love all months as long as they are different months, as variety stays spice. Life, wife and avocado pulp with shrimp on top. What more could one ask? Maybe a mistress  of blue mussel along with fresh clam and distressedly naked open oyster on ice. Thats variety of shell and sweet smells so fresh it would make a woman blush in reminiscence. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment KingPin 999
KingPin 999's picture

Would someone at Zerohedge take a look at this BLS birth/death model link. http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

I can't tell exactly what is going on but the adjustments this month are massive compared to anything seen in the last year.

It looks like Birth/Death (calculated quarterly now) were massive this month but I can't tell with this and all the other adjustments.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Texas can eventually just start levering their gold and borrowing with it as collateral in a self-running ponzi.  Effectively become a bank with real assets.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Shhh!  You'll give away the Federal Reserve's secret!  Can't have anyone knowing about their philosopher's stone!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Like a very sick rabbit population...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Plad...

it may well have been the best in 32 years, but you really should examine the historical context of gold's action in 1980...

Just sayin'

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When discussing gold the first thing out of the mouths of 99% of people out there is "But it is at its all time high".

No it's not.

Inflation adjusted it's nominal high of $880 in 1980 is $3300 in today's dollar.

[BLINK, BLINK]

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

C'mon... quit with the posturing...

Has the Hedge gotten to the point where anything but slavish devotion to the altar of precious metals is denigrated...My fuck, is group think de rigueur here??

I just laugh when I hear about people talking about the best Jan since 1980 when January 1980 was a classic hyperbolic blowoff top that took 28 years or so to recover from....

There are lot of people here with egg on their face re: Silver... The people chasing the top in 2011 will be a source of resistance when Ag makes its next move as they get out...

Hell I have monster box of leafs that I am still down 5 bucks a coin (not that I am worried)....

-------

BTW, I probably have more physical than you can imagine....

Finally, the ZH sentiment on PMs is the perfect contrarian signal for trading purposes.... Buy when its quiet and sell when rate of posts on a gold thread exceeds 125/hr....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

You just came here to rub in the fact that you have monster boxes and 100s of oz of gold.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Don't you have some thermodynamics to brush up on?

PS I can assure you that I did not amass what I have by following the crowd...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

LenonHendrix it is $2300 aprox. not $3300 inflation adjusted.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Did you see it snowed in Rome? Hmmm, how about that? I decree from that data that the Earth is cold today.

PS - There are a lot of people that need to play catch up. In which case, playing the charts to get the best price is probably too risky.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep... Lots of snow in Japan and state of emergencies in Europe because of the cold...and I went golfing Feb 1st outside NYC when it was 62 degrees...

After brushing up on your thermodynamics, you might want to look at Hadley cells, the Arctic Oscillation and how they can influence the Jet Stream...

Before I forget, do you have a point that you are trying to make??

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Aha! More data. Let me just do a quick calculation accounting for Hadley's cellphone and The Arctic Oscillation! I now decree that the Earth is tepid. Phew! I thought we were done for there and that the Earth was going to freeze over.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

I'm not sure you can rely on such a small segment of the market population -worldwide; as I find most folks on NA blogs seem to have thier collective heads up thier own arses on this issue - as a reliable contrarian signal wrt the purchase of or reasons to purchase any hedges against the ever increasing {fiat tsunami}ponzi . 

But whatever, I keep hearing these sorts of comments about mining companies as well, blah blah blah overvalued, blah blah blah parabolic etc etc.  

At the end of the day it's all just opinion anyway, mine just happens to align with the bugs. But getting back to buy and sell indicators, how many of your wider ranging aquaintances even read financial blogs? {not such a valid question if you work in the financial sector} Bass and how many other wealth managers are talking PM's and hard assets? Yeah exactly, NTFM.... 

Anyhoot......

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Don't read too much into what I write... I am a gold bug but there will be many *paper* trading oppurtunities before the jig is up...

When the PM bugs emerge here like a murder of crows, it usually means to take profits..... 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

People should always have both eyes open.. regardless of how they feel.

Gold is Up..

we buy low and sell high.. with that said I see more drama coming.. is it worth taking profits now? to not have an entrenched position with the euro goes pop (in whole or in part)?

God Love and God Bless Fight Club!

signed, Christian Constitutionalist

P.S. dont for get! See Something? Say Something! http://www.dhs.gov/files/reportincidents/see-something-say-something.shtm

1. I own LOTS of PM's!

2. I own LOTS of Food! wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than a weeks worth of cookies! PLUS PLUS PLUS

3. Water proofing ammo is a way of life!

4. I am a clutz and may very well lose a finger (more likely a toe) but the risk is there!

5. I HATE the Lobby Whores in Washington DC!

6. I HATE the Lobby in Washington DC!

7 I HATE Wall Street who OWNS the Lobby in Washington DC!

8. I HATE New Yorks Finest who are paid $27 bucks? an hour off duty to re-route traffic around the NYSE without a court order!

I could go on and on and fucking on.. but why! you have seen enough! you should really call!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

Don't hate, meditate!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment Ura Bonehead
Ura Bonehead's picture

Who's going to buy all that gold down in yor bunker, expecially with a Fed bounty on your head for still owning itBesides, it will be worth about $2.00 an ounce in trade - get ready for a HUGE bid/ask spread.

Just saying....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Good handle for yourself you chose there, but the first name should have been "Ima".

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Flakmeister

but you really should examine the historical context of gold's action in 1980...

 

Uh Huh,like comparing cat feces to sirloin steak.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Man oh man... the grief I get for simply pointing out that Jan 1980 was the blow off top.. 

Maybe I missed it, where did I call a top? Where did I say sell???

Yes, I am well aware that the game is very different now.  Prevailing conditions in 1980  are not what they are in 2012...

Good god, the narrowmindedness of this site does wear on me at times....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

What grief? Feeling a little dramatic today?

<falls back on the divan, hand to brow, spent>

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well there was a little drama with the PM bear raid and me holding an 80 contract spread on the SLV weeklies that expired today....

The short leg just closed in the money but I was worried for a while because it is no fun getting scalped by the house if you want to close a position like this on Op-Ex....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You want even more red arrows?  Just say you think Obama did something right -- whether he actually did or not.   Going against the grain will get ya junked, regardless of the veracity of your position.  It's the tribal nature of the internet and especially here at ZH.   All I've done is put the word Obama and a positive notion in the same comment, so that will get me red arrows galore!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ask and ye shall receive...

Long time no see.... it goes well I presume?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment zoomer
zoomer's picture

WHATTA WANT!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment The They
The They's picture

how can you not be convinced when there is a banner add that says "Kyle Bass, The man who knows everything" right next to the article?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment URZIZMINE
Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment VegasRage
VegasRage's picture

I don't know why I can't stand Ben Bernanke, every time he opens his mouth my investments do better.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

It would be interesting if somebody could come up with a quantitative Ben Bernanke Quivering Lip Index ---- I bet it would track the price of gold almost perfectly.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment 4realmoney
Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Very OT but related to the threads above and below with respect to bug-out plans, etc.

Without going into a long history of my awakening, suffice to say that it took a lot of time, was done carefully, and with verification (thorough reading of history, foreign version (true) history, etc.)

Step one was the religious unplugging.

Step two was the finacial unplugging.

Step three was the MIC/Media unplugging.

Throughout it all, the obvious distractions (Lizard people, etc) were culled and discarded.  One of those discarded 'true' conspiracies for me was Chem-Trails.

After very careful research I am coming to the conclusion that they are VERY real and that our air, land, and sea are being poisoned daily by our own government. (Aluminum particles up over 6,000 times acceptable levels and farm soil ph rising at an alarming rate).

SO... this has caused a lot of other things to change for me -- most notably MY bug-out plan which involved having a small farm and my own water source.  Neither are much help if both are poisoned.  Which also begins to explain the FEMA camps (for when the knowledge becomes common) and the underground bunkers for the elite, AND the seed banks...

F me running.  I now feel ill-prepared.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sorry, I sold all of my paper gold and silver after NFP.  However, I will buy it all back soon enough.  

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

I'm ready to buy physical gold. Compare Gold Prices dot com lists several brokers and options. Newbie question: Is there any logical reason to buy 1 oz gold eagle over 1 oz maple leaf, krugerrand, etc? Why would I want to pay a premium for one over the other? Liberty precous metals seems to have best pricing. Is there an advantage of using one broker over another? Thanks in advance. TC

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

9999

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

Just for grins, I emailed Sprott Money asking them what they BUY 1 oz gold maple for and they responding by asking what year are the coins and in what condition.

Why does that matter?  Aren't they buying gold for the intrinsic value?

Sorry for the newbie questions.

 

TC

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

refer to my answer below

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Tony,

gold is gold and silver is silver no matter what it says on its face.  but some people prefer u.s.-minted coins (eagles, buffaloes) because, well, we live in the u.s.  some prefer leafs because of its .9999 purity and because they see it as a way to diversify their collection and avoid confiscation by the u.s. gov't should some nefarious shit like that is undertaken by our government (which i would never rule out).  

there is no single "best" approach but IMHO i think it's wise to diversify.  get some eagles, some buffaloes, phils, leafs, krugs, libertads, credit suisse, pamps, pandas, etc.  

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

You'll get all sorts of opinions on this but I don't buy coins at all.

I prefer the 1 oz. bars and pay as small a premium over spot as possible.

There is no intrinsic difference in one form vs. another IMHO if all you want is a way to store value.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

no, none.

Maples should be avoided as the scratches they can easily get will fetch you less money when you go to sell, despite the whole it's a BULLION coin and still .9999 gold.  Smalltime buyers expect "collectable" looking coins and many major dealers have just flat stopped dealing with the bullshit of Maples because of this scratch issue.

A krugerrand can reasonably be expected to sell for right at spot pretty much wherever and by whomever.  If you want .9999, go with the philharmonic or kangaroo.  Buffalos command a premium on both ends of the transaction, as do Eagles, vis a vis other coins of the same purity.  You'll see markup on both bid and ask.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

One big thing about the high purity is that it has to be something like .995 pure to be considered a commodity in Canada; otherwise, you have to pay tax on it, HST, or GST + PST or whatever, 12 to 15 percent unless you're in Alberta, only 5 percent.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

Thank you for your input!

 

TC

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

Be sure to get into physical silver as well: http://www.silverbullion.co.za/ :-)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

I'll sell my gold when real interest rates turn positive in a significant way.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

I'll sell my gold when the public are chasing Dimon, Blenkfein, Moynihan, et al down the streets with pitch forks and lanterns!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

that will be a glorious day!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Stoning with gold bricks seems appropriate. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

No.  Just throw them in pits full of increasingly worthless paper currency so they can share the pleasure of drowning in / choking on the stuff like the rest of the economy.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

What ever happened to the good old days when people like that were just hacked to death with machetes? (sigh)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I'll sell when there is a feasible alternative!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment yabyum
yabyum's picture

I'll sell mine ( most likely trade) when I find my small acerage w/ well, and irriagtion H2O and good soil. Far far away from the big city.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

when interest rates turn positive in a significant way it will most likely not be due to a strong currency and strengthening economy. It will most likely be from the complete opposite.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

You have a point. But a collapsing currency is usually accompanied with skyrocketing inflation.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

agreed, but thats when you would want to sell? I guess I could see it. What perplexes me is that you would trust converting your gold into what...dollars? Whats the end game?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I think the typical goldbug answer is to convert it into city blocks...  which I think at least has the right premise in that you convert it into other tangible things.  You only convert it into fiat if you are certain you have no depreciation risk while waiting to convert it into tangible assets or, alternatively, when trust and respect in the currency is reborn (don't hold your breath on that one).

Of course, this is a matter of timing...  which is not likely to be met with any semblance of precision by humans.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I'll sell part of my precious when I see hundreds queing in order to buy it...

ah, wait, this was a trick question, eh? You see, I had this old boat and...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

You know, I love ZH, and there are a ton of sharp minds on these boards but collectively ZH'ers are the WORST fucking boaters of all time. I mean you guys make Schettino look good...don't ever ask me to go boating with you guys, I'd rather hunt with Cheney...

/snarc

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9059054/Costa-Concordia-Threat-of-Mafia-treasure-hunters.html

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Backspin
Backspin's picture

I'll sell mine when I find it again.  First I'll have to invest in some diving equipment, and I'll have to remember which lake that was...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

The smart thing is to sell BEFORE the interest spike. Like in the '80s, the plausible THREAT of high interest rates killed the golden goose.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The yield on the 10 year was rising while gold was skyrocketing in 79.....

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment dime2962
dime2962's picture

what...you say cramer isnt screaming back up the truck?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I will open a bottle of champagne on the day when that coked-up pumpmonkey is screaming UNDER a truck.

Justice is a ten-mile long bloody streak down the highway.

DRIVE DRIVE DRIVE!!!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

I love Kyle!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

Kyle Bass is one of the best, IMO.

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

and for $24.99 you can listen to him say the same things over again as he has already said on youtube for free!

http://www.scribd.com/doc/75784106/Hayman-Capital-Letter-Dec-14

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Or from Tyler here is the Q3 2011 from Hayman Capital http://www.scribd.com/doc/74335711/Hayman-Nov2011

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

The illuminati controlled Mass Media may fool the masses...

but they will have a very hard time fooling ZedHeds...true players for REAL!

Nothing New Under the Sun.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'll sell my gold when......well I really can't think of a reason unless it is to preserve the family.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Jessica Alba bent over a table saying give it to me baby??

Worth an ounce of silver at least

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

No even with Trav's dick.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

His middle finger seems ever-willing tough.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

Jeez man that's somebody's MILF you're talkin about.....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:10 | Link to Comment rufus13
rufus13's picture

She was hot when used before expiration date, which was at least a decade ago. 

Dark Angel, season 1. 

Lately, she's someones's mom, a little heavy, still as silly between her ears as ever. 

Cheers.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Little problem here with the bug out plan.

I can’t fit all the guns, gold, silver, survival bag, grits, dog and wife all in the Jeep.

Somethings got to go.

What to do.. what to do..

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well all that stuff goes a lot further if you didn't have three mouths to feed. Of course for me there would be a tremendous amount of guilt, so I'd have to keep the dog and the wife would go :) Neither one of them can use a gun anyway.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Get two Jeeps, have the wife drive the second one.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment delacroix
delacroix's picture

.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:06 | Link to Comment viahj
Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Xploregon
Xploregon's picture

I'm sure you'll miss her.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment rufus13
rufus13's picture

Pre-position the food at the Bug-Out Location, along with the 4500 pounds of ammo. 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

You forgot some essentials -- water and extra gas -- so now you really have no extra room.  Wife is easily replaced when you have a little silver to trade.  You need to trade in for a newer model every few years anyway.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Saro
Saro's picture

You can always make a new family.  You can't make more gold . . .

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

I'll sell my gold when......you can pry it from my cold dead hands.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Will 2 O'clock this afternoon work?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

I will pry it from his warm, dead hands...I'm in for 50/50

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Tradition 1 other 'assets' 0

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Caviar is Kyle !!!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

whats up with zerohedge outages?

tfmetals also was under dos loads

is this what the tripple A's are meeting about in Berlin?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Sell your silver and gold. hungarianboy said :-)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Roger O. Thornhill
Roger O. Thornhill's picture

Hungarians aren't that brainless. Must be a Hapsburg.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Well there are always exceptions: Hungarianboy - "Safe haven my ass. Gold goes to 1450 maybe lower.... We've had a melt up, then we made a lower high. Every technician should wonder to hold or to dump. Don't be suprised to see them dumping." hungarianboy Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:05 | 1978909

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Ted K
Ted K's picture

Well the American economy starts to look A LITTLE stronger, the U.S. Dollar probably looks stronger as a result, and what do you know, Tyler Durden puts up another "expert" telling us not to let go of our gold at near its high.

And Chris Martenson report on Gold going to 3000 is cross-posted by Tyler Durden in 3.... 2..... 1...... Boing!!! Like a limp Durden hard-on

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

So go back to watching CNBS then!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Ted D, Stop back in a month or so when things start deteriorating once the latest blast of intervention evaporates into nothingness, exposing a core that is only further rotted in the interim, while the wealth producing portion of the economy (the one that actually creates wealth vs. redistributes it or lives parastically from it) is less capable since it was forced to fund the prior intervention, and therefore grew less or shrank in that same interim.

Meanwhile, pepare also for the power brokers to look out for themeselves, and for this policy to repeat until Atlas collapses for good. 

(This has been the process of the last 100 years, nearing its end final death throes...)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

he says don't sell gold but is he also saying buy gold now? @ 1750?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

hmmm, yeah. Look up dollar cost averaging. Especially if you don't want to have to triple-guess all of the manipulations of the market.

As long as you're paying worthless fiat for physical, who cares anyway? Of course you can try to be wise/efficient about it, but in the end holding physical is what matters mosts. Especially if you don't have any at the moment (like me, I should really have fixed that leak in my raft when I went white river rafting). Then trying to guess whether thats a temporary top or not and pushing your purchase back is putting yourself in jeopardy.

However, understand that I'm not a trader, nor high-budget, with tough access to investment grade physical in central america. I do what I can and when the opportunity comes, I take it. This is obviously diffferent to somebody that can just drive to his local coin shop.

Not that I'd recommend buying gold. I'm much more of a silver man right now. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Or your silver.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

or your nickles (look at Dr. Copper)...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

"I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need." 

Hmmm... I seem to remember some other smart guy saying the same thing...   paging Dr. Caviar Emptor.... 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:41 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need."

Yes sir, just got a dose of that yesterday,on food items.

Two to be exact. Quaker Oats(Lg carton),6weeks ago was $2.80,now $3.89.

Ocean Spray Grapefruit Juice (low cal), 6 weeks ago, was $2.00 for a jug, now $2.86.

Basically I have said hell no, and have ceased even buying beef,poultry,fish,pork, etc..................unreal.

Buying in large quanities just to save some $$$ for the next trip,no telling what it will be.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Rodolfito
Rodolfito's picture

"I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need."

That is the best summary I have heard yet.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

Kyle, I won't.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

Even the email spammers are now talking gold...almost unreadable though.

This fell into my email inbox at 0315 local time this morning:

 

Subject: "I am sure that we never mate before"  (yeah I'm pretty sure of that too...lol!)

 

Consideration:
 
 
 
Dear, Sir
 
 
 
My name is Martins Ranketu, I got your contact through my internet search
for an assistant from you. I am the son to Late Mr. Felix Ranketu…Sir
before the late of my daddy on the 12/9/2008 when I was still at the age of
sixteen years, my daddy deposited with my name the sum of twenty two
million US dollar with some gold appreciated 985,000.00 USD in a security
company for himself before the discharge of his duty as a ship captain and
later join our government as senator and his departed from me…
 
I did not get intoxicated to write but I write you to help me to receive
the fund and the gold out for me from the security company since I have no
money to pay the release charge…that’s my reason of contacting you and I
believe in the word of my daddy before he died…Says that people from your
place is honesty and you will also help me and my little sister to come
over to your place since our mummy has decided to get married to another
man who were trying to claim and to use our inheritance to train his own
family…please help me to reply before it become late from the day the
security company has given to me to take the save off from there company….i
an my sister has agreed that when you help us,25% of the total fund will be
for you and we will give to sum gold out from all…I will be looking forward
to hear from you soonest as i know the security company can help you get
across the hole treasures to your place.
 
 
 
Thanks
 
Yours truly,
 
Martins Ranketu
 
+2347084639645

Headers:

Return-path: martinr018@gmail.com
Received: from imta12.emeryville.ca.mail.comcast.net (LHLO
 imta12.emeryville.ca.mail.comcast.net) (76.96.30.30) by
 sz0151.ev.mail.comcast.net with LMTP; Fri, 3 Feb 2012 08:15:43 +0000 (UTC)
Received: from mail-gy0-f195.google.com ([209.85.160.195]) by
 imta12.emeryville.ca.mail.comcast.net with comcast id VLFi1i0144DEkgp0CLFjED;
 Fri, 03 Feb 2012 08:15:43 +0000

/snip/

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Sounds totally legit to me.

Can I go in on the deal with you, Disenchanted?

 

PS: I did not get intoxicated to write, say that I from the your place that is honest.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

"Can I go in on the deal with you, Disenchanted?"

 

Sure, why not...sounds like there's plenty to go around ;)

 

I'm wondering about this part:

"I will be looking forward to hear from you soonest as i know the security company can help you get
across the hole treasures to your place."

Is he saying he's throwing his sister in as part of the deal?    /s

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Ben Bernanke will stoop to nothing

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Bearish engulfing on the daily, hourly shows very nice 3 line strikes. this is going to collapse. to 1500 again heck if 1540 passed then see you way below in the 1200 maybe sub $1000.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

$0 is the real target for these fake, paper assets.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Wow, if that's what you're reading, and if you're actually taking trading positions on that, and if you've made similar calls in the past, this market must be costing you a fucking fortune. But hey, good luck with it Nouriel.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

It either is Nouriel or a troll who likes to stir the pot posting as if he is Nouriel.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Gold is pretty seriously overbought on the dailies...exercise caution long here.  Negative strength divergence from the top in August

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Dump your gold, margin hike has to be coming through.  Buy back after chaos

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

I’ll sell my Gold when we’re back on the Gold standard.

 

(By the way Gold entered overbought territory (RSI ~ 75) and could concede as much as $100/ounce. MA 50 ~ $1670)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

"I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need."

That's what the guy holding the things I need said. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need"

becoming one of my favorite lines

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Which, literally, is nonsense from an austrian perspective...  if we substitute deflation with decreased prices and inflation for increased prices, then we might get somewhere...  but we know what he means.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

"deflation in the thongs you own and inflation in the thongs you need"

 

I can relate to that.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment mushioov
mushioov's picture

These are rough times. Sell your gold and silver, under spot... to me

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

Grand Experiment... or financial terrorism?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

hey, this is Tricky Dick in your avatar!

how apt

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I like to think all their names are dick now

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Like "Dick" Holder? I'd love to get your take on a bit American Spirit posted down thread about Eric's prosecutors taking bribes and him not doing anything about it because he did not want it going public and making him look bad.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I'll take a look but any man who was counsel for Chiquita is already a criminal to me. How's the water? 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I should have emailed you. Water is a big problem and at this point a point of contention. Thing is, I don't know how to think about planning a garden when the literal shape of the canvas is unknown. They want to throw grass seeds on it. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I'm learning not to believe everything I read -- anywhere.

Gold's rally will soon come to an end

Despite its recent highs, is gold vulnerable to a short-term pullback, if not worse? Mark Hulbert has some answers.
Gold's rally will soon come to an end.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I guess his perspective is very short term. Or he thinks the debt issues in EU and US will work themselves out!

How are bug out preps going? You were lightening your load last I saw you posting. My house is getting closer, we hope we will get in, in a month or so. Mr. Jones above will advise on my garden as soon as I know what I will be working with. It is all clay mud right now. Sad.  

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:14 | Link to Comment mushioov
mushioov's picture

Damn... $40 drop in 1 hour? What the hell is happening there?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Paper shuffling.  Use the foolishness of these rubes to buy more physical, if you take any action.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

We had a $100 up move just on Bernanke talk!

It’s got to be given back. Don’t you think ?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

They said there would be volatility.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Wake me when we've got price swings of 8%. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

I'm summarizing this move as dollar strength:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:IND

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Damn... $40 drop in 1 hour? What the hell is happening there?

 

Fed's Fisher said NO Need for more QE.(and you know how the asshats take that line of crap.

I KNOW Fisher must be clueless that Benny, has never stopped QE, to all except America.Wait till he dumps a pile on Euronisneyland.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Is this the same Fed Fischer that bought 1 million in the faux gold fund GLD and took possession of $250K of physical platinum or am I thinking of another governor

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

The thing that's been driving the market for the last few months, the AUD/USD, is now 30 pips away from an all time high.

It's quite amazing really. AUD/USD has gone from .62 to 1.0750 in 3 years.

 

UPDATE: Now 10 pips from all time high.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

 “As every day goes by, I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need.”

I like Bass but don't undertsand how he can misuse deflation and inflation. It really muddies thinking. 

Deflation and inflation are mutually exclusive when their proper definitions are used (increase or decrease in prices caused by money supply). Just call prices falling, prices falling.  Then look for the cause of them falling. This allows you to more clearly understand the reality of the situation. Or we could go back to just grunting and do away with defintions.

He should of said " I continue to see inflation in things you need and prices declining for things you own" Then explain the reasons for prices falling like regulations, fear, credit destruction. Those reasons do not include a falling money supply to the contrary the money supply is increasing at a tremendous rate.

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment ZeroChance
ZeroChance's picture

I believe it was a quick "soundbite" way of saying what you are saying --- the long-form correct view.

If our homes have lower prices, that is due to a deflationary situation in that there is a lower money supply/regulations and capability to refinance, buy, etc.  However, we all know that there is also higher prices on many key things and that is due to the huge increase in the money supply that *is* flowing in other areas.

We are currently in strange market dynamics (some say, broken/non-existent markets, in fact) due to the strange actions that have been taken.  Much of these actions are unprecedented in the particular ways they've come forward and give us no useful historical context to easily understand.

So, if I get his gist, I think his statement nails it pretty well actually.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

That was very polite and to the point. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

Yet still inaccurate. That is the good news for speculators. As long as definitions like this are conflated there will be opportunity for market disconnects. Until you can properly use definitions you will continually be confused about reality which will lead to bad decisions. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

if its inaccurate HOW is it inaccurate?

 

Can't remember off teh top of my head but I think the housing bust destroyed some $5 trillion in real estate value.

The Fed printed (electronically) approximately $16 trillion excluding TARP etc, so on a net-net basis we're looking at $10-12 trillion of inflation.

However it hasn't 'hit' the road yet because the velocity of money (which is the indicator of the transmission of monetary inflation to price inflation) is still stagnant.

 

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Milton Friedman

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:13 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

If properly used the terms deflation and inflation are mutually exclusive. Deflation is a decline in prices CAUSED by declining money supply. Inflation is rising prices CAUSED by an increasing money supply. Money supply is either increasing or decreasing it isnt doing both regardless of velocity.

There are a ton of other causes for rising and falling prices outside of money supply. By distingushing the causes we can better understand the reality. If you say we have both deflation and inflation you will have a more difficult time understanding the reality.

If housing prices fell while money supply was rising then we have to look for other causes because the cause cannot be a declining money supply. Other causes include less credit (credit is not money) available, market fear, previous capital misallocation(overbuilding)  

Here are just some reasons prices rise and fall: capital misallocation, wage arbitrage, productivity, technology, artificial credit incentives, government incentives. Feel free to couch those price changes all under deflation and inflation but I can promise you it will contort your understanding of what is going on.

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Deflation is a decline in prices CAUSED by declining money supply. Inflation is rising prices CAUSED by an increasing money supply.

I dunno, I think it's safer to just think of money supply OR prices when using either term.  There's no other good way to deal with the current circumstance, where you have decreasing "money supply" in terms of collapsing asset valuation at the same time you have loss in purchasing power.

What you call "inflation" in that quote sounds like it's more simply explained by classical price mechanics given increased consumer demand.  You'd say it's money-supply causing the increased demand, I know, but it's not so much about the size of the money supply--it's about the distribution of the money.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

Asset values are not money. Money is money. When asset values collapsed there was still the exact same amount of money as there was prior to their collapse.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:21 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

So what is The Bernank holding on his balance sheet? And all the banks? Is this not the void that needs to be filled that cannot?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

That is a good question and maybe akak can help me out. My initial response is "he is holding soveriegn immunity". Governments that can print their own currency cannot and will never go bankrupt so the balance sheet is mererly a mirage to manage expectations or provide the illusion of accountability.  I will have to think through it to make sure I am correct.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:38 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Riphoward, you are EXACTLY correct, but seem to be much in the minority, even here, in understanding just what is and what is NOT both "deflation" and "money", as well as recognizing that there is simply no "threat" whatsoever facing us from some putative --- and NEVER before seen ---- fiat currency deflation, with the laughable corresponding appreciating fiat currency, something yet to ever be documented in all the thousands of years of monetary history.

Like you, I grow increasingly frustrated, as well as enraged, by all the misinformation, and active DISinformation, surrounding the topic of "deflation" --- which as far as I am concerned, is NOTHING but a smokescreen being thrown up by the powers-that-be, and their lackies in the corporate-controlled media, to confuse and divert the attention of the average person from the one REAL threat, that of ongoing fiat currency depreciation, as well as the very possible if not inevitable collapse of the same. 

No period of exponentially, and unsustainably, rising governmental debt and monetization has EVER spawned an appreciating fiat currency --- but literally hundreds of such episodes have seen the radical depreciation or outright collapse of their fiat currencies.  What makes ANYONE suspect that this time is going to be any different? 

The one thing that I have found to be universally common to all the dishonest, disingenuous and/or clueless deflationist is a complete lack of historical perspective, and knowledge of monetary history.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

So what's "money" in your view?  Physical currency only?  M0?

(I'm actually trying to follow your thinking on this, just not getting anywhere.)

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