Kyle Bass Explains The New World Order - Panel Presentation

Tyler Durden's picture

Unlike the broad consensus of prognosticators who feel the road for the US is a decade or more, Bass sees a three-to-five year window for a credible solution to the debt saturation or else kicking the can will cease to have any impact. The reason for the proximity is the acceleration of what happens in Europe and Japan with that respective chronology his central view - which he sees a s critical in understanding for every money manager.

In this extended interview at AmeriCatalyst, he points to the optimistic self-deception biases that leave people unable to comprehend the scenarios as they either lead to a really bad outcome or a nominally bad outcome. Using the Lehman moment as an example, Bass explains how we have been conditioned to believe there is always a backstop or those backstops at a corporate and sovereign level (central banks and the IMF for example) are being called into question in their roles (being seen for what they are - as just promises) and it is the chasm between what we want to believe and what does happen that is enormous and leaves the extreme volatility, risk-on/risk-off market the way it is.

Reiterating how critical the psychology of today's situation, Bass goes on to debunk the optimism of globalization (at least for the Western world), destroy the myth of a 50% greek writedown solution, Japanese xenophobia and savings losses, structural versus cyclical implications for US equity deterioration, US deficits and housing's bottom, global debt saturation and how this tearing at the social fabric of the world will lead to - war.

Click image for video (no embed available)

This extended interview includes some of the following views (among many others):

On Greece:

For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.

On the IMF and its role as global savior

He discusses in some detail Keynes and the IMF formation and the new world order he foresees as our era of the largest peacetime accumulation of global debt has no precedent (as it has historically ended in conflict or been created by conflict).

And how this debt saturation will inebitably play out:

Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war.

And summarizing for every long-only talking head pitch-man:

This is not a cyclical rebound from a crisis we had two years and you should NOT be buying stocks because a P/E ratio is low relative to historical S&P behavior because the E is wrong. We are going to see declines and people don't know how to position themselves for declines. We are at peak earnings now! Earnings only look good because if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet.

We need to delever globally. We haven't delevered. Just now we are seeing marginal delevering in Europe and all hell is breaking loose. An summing up:

Consensus is US low/slow GDP growth - no recession, US better than Europe, Europe mild recession, muddle through, go all in to Emerging markets as that's where the convexity is.


The consensus is never going to be right.


I don't get paid to be an optimist or a pessimist. I get paid to be a realist and the realist negative currently.


Don't believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.

(h/t EnnuiHenry)

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eureka's picture


Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

New World Order=Old World Order

End the Order

buyingsterling's picture


The 'Republican Jewish Coalition' has declined to invite Ron Paul to their nationally televised debate on Dec. 7th. Apparently, Paul is 'misguided' and'extreme'. More here:


You can email the RJC here:

And you can reach their ladies' group here:

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Forget Ron Paul. If you are looking for a courageous leader during these tough times, in my opinion there are none as grossly underrated as President Herman Van Rompuy. While the European sovereign debt crisis has dominated the headlines, Pres. Van Rompuy has been a humble and modest advocate for progressive reforms to drive social change and consolidate core European values. Above all, Pres. Van Rompuy should be admired for his persistence and courage as a promoter of strong central governance in the face of ever rising right-wing ignorance. If Mr Rompuy ever considers moving to the US and running for congress, he has my vote any day.

WonderDawg's picture

Why does Van Rompuy always look like he just ate a cat turd?

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Eating cat turds is the initiation to get into the global banking elite.

Thank you sir.  May I pleaes have another.


Could be Nigel just pisses Rompuy off.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Global currency collapse has reached critical mass.

The slowmo trainwreck will turn into lightspeed supernova.

Digital/paper will become completely worthless.

Time to go long Somalian dollars!

Oh regional Indian's picture

Slomalia? I thought Iraqi Dinars were the great currency to come?

But, regardless....war.

I think there is a binary moment, from which there is no going bak, that is coming up on us. This much structural tension can go only one way.



The Big Ching-aso's picture



End the FED?    The FED's not listening.    Subliminally the FED's been telling us something all along.    We just didn't realize it.    Until now...........

FED spelled backwards is DEF.


Michael's picture

This looks rally scary. I could have written it myself, I mean the Kyle Bass piece.

Reminds me of this too;

Gold Just Went Over $2000, By Tonight That'll Cheap; Rollover-1981



Michael's picture

I think Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has changed. Looks to me like she's working on her legacy. Dare I say it, I like what I see so far. I may need psychiatric help.

Michael's picture

True story;

I was in rehab a few years ago for alcohol detoxification and I had a 24 year old room mate who was an Iraqi war veteran.

He was diagnosed with Post-traumatic Stress Disorder after two tours of duty and receives $34,000 a year for his disability.

This guy looked like Mike Tyson, every lean 250 sculptured pounds of him, would do his push ups at various times of day, one Mississippi, two, Mississippi, Thirty Three Mississippi, you get the picture.

This guy is a laboratory experiment. A very highly tax payer paid laboratory experiment. They pump him full of psychotropic drugs on a daily basis. He kind of has a good time playing his role.

It just occurred to me, this is how you know you just can't make this shit up. Cause it really happens.

Face it, Our Country is Fucked.


Michael's picture

You know, I'm still waiting to see the 1080P Sony Handycam video of Osama Bin Laden's dead body before they dumped his carcass into the ocean.

Isn't modern technology wonderful?

Michael's picture

Looks like Bill O'Reilly is trying to stir up a hornets nest for his own self gratification just in time for the Iowa caucuses.

 The age of cable news is over.

YBNguy's picture

I posted this video and some basic info (citing youtube and ZH) trying to get people clued into some things Kyle says. However it fell on deaf ears as many probably did not want to watch the hour long vid or could not understand the big words and acronynoms lolol - its like, hit pause and google something if your confused...

Bad Lieutenant's picture

One thing: Bass either was dishonest about not knowing of any "white swan" event or he's keep it under his hat.   That white swan is the development of a practical, self-sustainable fusion reactor.  Bass is 100% right about it all that suff in the video and is a brillant man, but opening the floodgates on 'free' energy would be more than a gamechanger.  Sadly, this would also prevent the removal of the pigs and vampires currently infecting the system.

fonestar's picture

Van Rumpoy looks a lot like the Euro that stole Christmas

Pope Clement's picture

MDB you are the best ZH humorist du jour.

"Dont believe anything that government says, They all lie"

"Think for yourself schmuck"

(Captain Hagbard Celine of the yellow submarine)


MrBinkeyWhat's picture

I miss Robert Anton Wilson. RIP

CPL's picture

That was funny.  What's with the hate?

reboot this mofo's picture

Ron Paul is being set-up to be the next President, also another "controlled" TOTUS. He is being set-up nicely by the media, but most are missing it. Think of a Pendulum, you need to get to 9 o' you swing it back to 3 o'clock first. Also, Mr. MDB: it is clear you are a troll for the New World Order or a GS paid party pooper, because no normal and sane person could spew the fecal matter that expundges from your hole. Never the less, I love you posts!!!! ?

Smiddywesson's picture

No, he and Robo are here to spice things up when the action slows.  MDB is just a sock puppet.  I'd say he IS Robo, but he's nowhere as clever so I think it's a different wizard behind the curtain.

Teamtc321's picture

I have fun jacking with Robo, he never hammer's me like he could I'm sure, so must get a kick out of it also lol. 

saiybat's picture

Ron Paul has a great message and I agree with it. But I absolutely do not want that message to be associated with what's to come. If freedom and decentralization is blamed for the collapse that's coming then we are truly fucked. It doesn't matter who is president but they're going to take the blame for all of it and Ron Paul represents more than a person, he represents the idea of liberty. If Ron Paul is elected as president it's defcon 1; head for the hills world totalitarian state imminent. This will be no fault of Ron Paul's and is beyond anything he can control but he and the idea he represents will take all the flak. I'm only speculating so don't take me seriously but I know a lot of you will not like what I'm saying. Just remember this if he is elected then take appropriate measures to protect yourself instead of letting your guard down and you should be doing this anyway.

Obama 2012

WonderDawg's picture

I agree. The outcome is already guaranteed, pain no matter what, and so whoever is in office next term is likely to take the blame (unless shit blows up before the election, which is quite possible), especially if it's a regime change and then we hit the wall. We're going to hit the wall no matter what, so if Obama is re-elected, he'll take all the blame, which is fine by me, because he had a chance to change course, if fact promised to do so, but instead has upped the ante on the current course. So fuck him. Unfortunately, I see a scenario where things are bad enough before the election that he is replaced, and then the shit hits the fan and the next guy takes the brunt of the blame. Fine by me if it's a run of the mill Repub, they're no better than Obama, but if it's Ron Paul, Liberty itself will take it on the chin along with him.

FEDbuster's picture

So if collapse leads to WW3 in the near future, wouldn't you want a nutcase like Newt to be commander in chief?  He would nuke the crap out of just about anyone, think Dr. Strangelove.

Ron Paul doesn't have enough crazy in him for WW3.  In the meantime, anyone know how deep of a bunker you need to protect from fallout?

GFKjunior's picture

Deep enough to live in for  a few thousand years till the radiation is gone.

Cap Matifou's picture

Actually, the worst part is over in 2-4 weeks.

"The majority of people requiring any sheltering at all will be many miles downwind, and they will not need to stay sheltered for weeks on end. In fact, most people will only need to stay sheltered full-time for 2-3 days before coming out to safely join the evacuation."


FEDbuster's picture

I could do a month in one of the local abandoned mines.  We could get fallout from LA, Vegas or Phoenix, depends on the winds.

China looks like they are gearing up for a fight, plus they need to trim the population, too.  Given that they will most likely play in the sandbox, maybe we won't have to bunker down here in the good ole USA?  Although the bi-centennial of the War of 1812 is coming up, so who knows?

Things that go bump's picture

If the coming collapse is bad enough it will result in freedom and decentralization, but we may not like it. 

passwordis's picture

 Ron Paul is being "set up"? 

So what you are saying is the powers that be are employing a sort of brilliant reverse psychology offensive against us. Interesting!

The skewed polls, the lack of references to Paul in the media, the relatively tiny face-time he's given in debates. The media constantly parroting the phrase " Ron Paul is not a serious candidate, he can't win". All of this is designed to convince people that Ron Paul should be our next president.

redpill's picture


Some people will see conspiracies no matter what.

The reality is the media suffers from normalcy bias the same as everyone else.  They feel comfortable with establishment politicians.  Ron Paul is scary to them.

Paul E. Math's picture

I actually think it's a good thing that they're freezing Paul out of the debate.  How much time would they have given him anyway?  90 seconds?

I think Paul can get as much if not more mileage out of his exclusion than he ever would have from anything he would have said at the debate.

There is a huge and growing vote out there that is simply 'anti-establishment' and Paul's exclusion from the debates for his own party's candidacy, even while polling in the top 4, absolutely cements his status as the anti-establishment candidate.

... crumbs's picture

... wasn't he in that Bruno movie !

Oh no another hollywood has been

john39's picture

something to watch for sure.  The masses have been played so many times, only a fool would blindly reach out for what appears to be the solution to the current problems.  must make sure you are not being set up for the next stage.   just saying, keep an eye for what lies ahead.

Sequitur's picture

Fucking Christ, Van Rompuy, the loser Nigel Farage calls a bank clerk?

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Loser? Van Rompuy is my hero. He does not submit to ignorant right-wing bullies like Nigel Farage. Instead he quietly focuses on the job he was appointed to do. This is the kind of leadership that is so lacking in the world today, and I'm not afraid to express my appreciation for his courageous work.

smiler03's picture

Yeah, I call them Christians.

Leraconteur's picture

 Instead he quietly focuses on the job he was appointed to do. 

So you want an appointed, unelected 'leader' to tell you what to do.

Got it.

1932, here we come.