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Kyle Bass Explains The New World Order - Panel Presentation
Unlike the broad consensus of prognosticators who feel the road for the US is a decade or more, Bass sees a three-to-five year window for a credible solution to the debt saturation or else kicking the can will cease to have any impact. The reason for the proximity is the acceleration of what happens in Europe and Japan with that respective chronology his central view - which he sees a s critical in understanding for every money manager.
In this extended interview at AmeriCatalyst, he points to the optimistic self-deception biases that leave people unable to comprehend the scenarios as they either lead to a really bad outcome or a nominally bad outcome. Using the Lehman moment as an example, Bass explains how we have been conditioned to believe there is always a backstop or savior...now those backstops at a corporate and sovereign level (central banks and the IMF for example) are being called into question in their roles (being seen for what they are - as just promises) and it is the chasm between what we want to believe and what does happen that is enormous and leaves the extreme volatility, risk-on/risk-off market the way it is.
Reiterating how critical the psychology of today's situation, Bass goes on to debunk the optimism of globalization (at least for the Western world), destroy the myth of a 50% greek writedown solution, Japanese xenophobia and savings losses, structural versus cyclical implications for US equity deterioration, US deficits and housing's bottom, global debt saturation and how this tearing at the social fabric of the world will lead to - war.
Click image for video (no embed available)
This extended interview includes some of the following views (among many others):
On Greece:
For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.
On the IMF and its role as global savior
He discusses in some detail Keynes and the IMF formation and the new world order he foresees as our era of the largest peacetime accumulation of global debt has no precedent (as it has historically ended in conflict or been created by conflict).
And how this debt saturation will inebitably play out:
Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war.
And summarizing for every long-only talking head pitch-man:
This is not a cyclical rebound from a crisis we had two years and you should NOT be buying stocks because a P/E ratio is low relative to historical S&P behavior because the E is wrong. We are going to see declines and people don't know how to position themselves for declines. We are at peak earnings now! Earnings only look good because if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet.
We need to delever globally. We haven't delevered. Just now we are seeing marginal delevering in Europe and all hell is breaking loose. An summing up:
Consensus is US low/slow GDP growth - no recession, US better than Europe, Europe mild recession, muddle through, go all in to Emerging markets as that's where the convexity is.
The consensus is never going to be right.
I don't get paid to be an optimist or a pessimist. I get paid to be a realist and the realist negative currently.
Don't believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.
(h/t EnnuiHenry)
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and pull all your cash out of the bank and stop paying taxes... let's crash this beeeoooootch!
taxes are a disincentive to work
Wife just lost her job and I have told her to stay home and be, heaven forbid, a mother for once. Quite frankly, she was doing nothing more than pushing me up to the tax bracket ladder.
i did that; bitch has problems being bored. They trained the women to be men; and to be jealous of men. they totally forgotten how to be women.
The Matrix needed more batteries.
And you've forgotten how to be a decent human being, but I guess she was dumb enough to marry you so thats her own fault.
Jordan, you fucking idiot. Do you understand what truly separates a country like the US from 3rd world nations like Zimbabwe and Haiti? No you don't.
Access to credit. If you destroy ALL the banks and credit unions by "walking away from your obligations" then nothing in this country gets built, nothing gets done.
No one made you buy that SUV, charge up all those credit cards, take out that mortgage on that hyperinflated house. You chose to fuck yourself in the ass. So now instead of owning up for your idiocy you want the country to collapse.
Don't mistake what I am saying for giving big banks bailouts. Absolutely not, but the rest of responsible civilization should not be sodomized by your own ineptitude and victimized by your dream of an OWS "communist utopia."
These community college dropout level posters are just ridiculous. Enjoy your BK double stacker and new episode of Hoarders.
So, Credit is our savior?
Shouldn't we be utterly, overwhelmingly, amazingly saved by now?
Credit has allowed you to buy a house, a car, that 1080p HD widescreen, and probably most everything else you own. Compare your standard of living to that of a Haitian. Ever been to a slum in Lima? I have. Those people can't get credit. Do you envy them?
What happened to the socialist utopia of the CCCP? You couldn't get credit there either, but then you couldn't buy anything but a Lada so you didn't need credit. You lived in your small box apartment and that was life.
Access to credit is your savior from becoming impoverished like they are/were. You really think they are better off with no access to credit than you are?
They've done a number on you. You need to de-program. You actually scare me.
Typical rebuttal from one who enjoys the fruits of capitalism yet claims he's 'against the matrix' and better than that, etc.
Oh educate us, wise one, on how one de-programs.
In the case of PsychicWebbedToes (and his opponents), by realizing that credit is a tool which is neither good nor bad, but can be put to very bad uses (like financing a Maserati, or sending tens of thousands of troops to the desert) or to good uses (investing in learning a new skill that makes someone more job-marketable, for example).
One must at all times remember that the banks are like a paralyzed vampire which can only bleed you dry if you're dumb enough lean over it with your neck exposed.
One might also point out to Webbah the bank owns the house, the houses get less affordable when people spend imaginary money, and credit comes with interest. I'm not sure I'd view paying twice as much as something costs over the long run as a service. Credit can provide the grease to keep money velocity up or the bubbles that bring a depression.
Credit also has allowed the average middle-class home to rocket from $12,000 in 1960 to over $200,000 back in the bubble days of the middle of the last decade.
When I was a young-un in the early 1970s, you could take $2,000 to a dealership and drive home a new vehicle without going into any debt at all.
Thanks to credit, that $2,000 won't even buy you a half-decent used vehicle.
And credit has allowed the average student loan debt to soar to un-Earthly levels.
To whom should I send the note of thanks I have here lying on my desk?
Barney Frank might be a good place to start sending those Christmas cards and thank you notes.
Tsar Pointless, you have an important point.
And "government" backed credit is the worst. Student loans, housing, etc... Ron Paul has been making the point that anything the government gets involved in through credit or reimbursment becomes more expensive. Funny money debt and access to the printing presses has a way of doing that.
Except for the fact that the average salary in 1970 was about $5,000/year.
If he was rolling into dealerships with rolls of $2,000, he was LOADED (in relative terms)
Priced in ounces of gold, that $2000 car would have been ~ 20 oz.
20 oz of gold today ~ $35,000, which will still buy you a new car without debt.
Risk-adjusted credit isn't the problem; problem is over-leverage and massive printing
You are clearly a thoughtless moron, sir. Made evident by your assumptions and presumptions to "know" about the situation of the folks you are responding to - you assume that everyone with a worldview that differs from your own meets some description of your straw-man irresposible person. Myopic. Grow up, intellectually, sir.
Only reason credit is needed to get the house is because of government intervention in forcing inflation into these markets, through wonderful regulations, and inflating the price of housing quicker than the rise in income - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/us-existing-house-price-median-family-income/
Fuck the Federal Reserve, Fuck the Federal Government, and FUCK YOU AND YOUR HORSE YOU RODE IN ON.
Credit used to be based on Savings.
Now Credit is a conjuring process. Banks conjure up credit (credit creation) with a keystroke since capital can be leveraged to infinity.
And the Feds conjure up credit electronically and by physical printing; essentially allowing you to consume today and saddle the next generation with the bill.
Well, the bill has come due and the next generation has told us to all "Fuck Off"
Credit- the Crack Cocaine of the something for nothing crowd.
Psychic Webelo is 110% CORRECT!!! Everyone needs to understand that we are now in the midst of an Epic Crisis of Worldwide Proportions; and today's Epic Crisis of Worldwide Proportions will be solved the same way we solved the last one (911) -- President Chimpy told everyone to go shopping, and we DID! So if you don't like doing what our President says to get us out of this Crisis, then go live somewhere else -- and good luck shopping in Zimbabwe!
wow dude, someone here must have a shitty personal balance sheet full of depreciating "necessities", because i know that i pay in full for anything i buy or if i can't afford it i don't but it at all...
third world countries have no credit because they exist under a state that does not respect property rights which prevents the accumulation of capital, credit in and of itself isn't bad, most of us here on ZH despise manipulated credit, point being that without the fed the market would set rates and prevent malinvestment from happening...i.e. subprime loans for houses and cars...
absent central banking, credit actually plays a role in the formation of capital, not its destruction...
Haiti has plenty of debt. We don't need any more, thanks.
Your comment smacks of consumer culture. Credit does NOTHING but encourage those who have it to spend beyond their means, and enslave them after that sweet, sweet immediate reward. If you had saved up for five years you could have bought that house for cash. If EVERYONE had to save to buy homes, then it would only take two and a half (because the function of savings greatly increases the value of those same savings when they are spent, in addition to the capital accumulation that comes about from those same savings).
The only reason the people you cite were poor was because they lived/live in a kleptocracy. And end stage one, rather than our nacient one. You have done nothing but suppose that correlation equals causation.
Hilarious, you arent as good as MDB yet but decent effort.
Im assuming this was a joke, otherwise you would be a complete fucking idiot.
Your hypothesis on credit extension applies to the average Greek citizen as well. Now, why don't they just let them have more? It's only credit. It's only a ledger entry after all. (Watch the vid.)
What you haven't extrapolated from the ever growing credit accessability, is the system dosen't supply the blanket where-with-all (jobs that pay enough) to pay it back.
**Credit has allowed you to buy a house, a car, that 1080p HD widescreen, and probably most everything else you own.**
I have an alternative solution for you. This going to seem unbelievable to you, incredibly radical. Instead of buying all that crap on credit why don't you save up until you have enough and PAY CASH!! It's called delayed gratification. Your grandfather or maybe your great-grandfather learned this during the last depression. A lot of people are in the process of learning this lesson again
Credit = Darwinian cheating.
Credit is there to take advantage of peoples instinctual weakness while lining the pockets of PEOPLE WHO HAVE FUCKING NOTHING TO DO WITH MAKING YOUR HOUSE, CAR, 1080p hd WIDESCREEN AND PROBABLY MOST EVERYTHING ELSE YOU OWN.
Credit is a belief, like a religion, a hoax, praying on self deception weakness that "I'll be productive for this shit later because I want this shit NOW"
Good in the short term, cheating mother nature on a long enough time line.
+15 trillion and counting
The only thing that debt has saved is...well, the bankster-gangster elite that we allow to rule over us.
No one is making you patronize the likes of Chase and BoA. Borrowing from and lending to them gives them the power.
You are truly naive.
Because our beloved overlords have allowed a select cartel to create money out of nothing - the credit you so love - houses, land, and everything else bought on credit have been bid up by people willing to go into hock to buy them, so that everyone else needs to borrow if they wish to buy a house, because the currency the have to work their asses off to collect is the same currency banks can whisk out of nowhere.
So, yes, you do need to get into debt, because we have had government-enabled runaway inflation in essential assets bought on credit.
Credit, like a gun, is just like another tool; it is the actions of the wielder which decide good/bad or right/wrong. Without credit, trade, particularly international trade, would not occur, plunging the world into an economic hell. On the flip side, you are correct, credit has been abused and used in many ways it never should have.
Balance is somewhere in the middle.
Regards,
Cooter
Would you hand a child a g-ddamned gun?
Look deeper. The smartest mother fuckers on the planet are working in finance because CREDIT pays them THE MOST MONEY OF ANY JOB ON THE FUCKING PLANET. Neurosurgeons make SHIT compared to finance credit architects (alchemists).
If this race ever wants to evolve - we best not be having those smart MF'ers sitting in skyscrapers in downtown Manhattan.
We are cheating reality here folks.
When you go to work every day, you are not working to pay the guy who worked on your house construction, plumbing or electrical work or who taught you something in college. You are paying some fuck head who sits in front of a computer screen all day looking for ways to add new CREDIT pyramids to your productivity.
No, credit isn't our savior, but it can be used as a usefull facility within a corruption-free market, managed by a cronyism-free government, existing in a less manipulated, to the point of hyperconsumerism masked as social darwinism and/or status indication, society, with a population that overindulges in overconsumption in order to fill any sense of meaning or lack of community.
Then again idealism is realism's bitch sister so back to drawing board.
Drinks all around
You summarize the difference between the US and Zimbabwe as the access to credit? Really? That's the one thing that separates us?
Feel free to pick your own 3rd world country. Pretty sure Mugabe turned hyper-rich just like our politicians do. Still the common man in Zimbabwe had no access to credit. It isn't the only reason but it is the biggest reason.
real credit is the hard earned savings of individual productive efforts, the credit we have today is fake and destructive, it has only lasted as long as it has due to the amount of capital our great grandparents accumulated, which only took a few generations of fake credit to destroy...
this is the reason our standard of living has to drop moving forward, we have destroyed america's accumulated capital, there is nothing left but lollipops, unicorns, ledger entries and licorice...
Wow, such vitriol! Your own frothing-at-the-mouth seething, solipsism, and myopia just shine through. I am actually a former economist and finance attorney, sir, not a 'fucking idiot.' There are ways to bring about the default-en-masse so as to not turn us into Zimbabwe. But your attitude makes me wonder the degree of difference between folks like you, and savages. Not far apart, unfortunately, I have observed with many of my fellow Americans. Grow up, kid.
Oh my! Two of the worlds worst professions all rolled into one person. Fancy that.
Your frothing-at-the-mouth demeanor continues. Conversation over. Good luck to you; try to tone down a bit, so your posts don't read like a tantrum.
Lawyers know best. Always works in Washington right?
Lawyers know the law, yes.
The problem is when lawyers, or anybody else, MAKES the law such that men can steal from men.
Nice ad hominem though.
Heavens know I don't agree w/tmosley much, but in this respect he is 100% correct. Western civilization is a government of LAWS over men. Everyone should know the law. Lawyers are those of us who are experts in interpreting those laws. Complex societies require complex laws. Good luck enforcing patent law in that libertarian paradise of Somalia.
'I am actually a former economist,and finance attorney"
So....
What you are saying is you are a "LIAR AND A THIEF".......
fUCKING IDIOT
**I am actually a former economist and finance attorney**
You would probably be better received here if you said former prostitute an urinal cleaner.
I was thinking gay fluffer and jizz mopper.
Thank you for that!
You hit the nail on the head!
These kids seem to think that a centrally planned economy would be the answer to everything--they want an unending stream of handout money (the same amount for everyone, except the leaders of ows of course) and not have to work for any of it.
Free housing for all, free education, free this free that. Fucking scumbags.
I saw 5 of the Occupy camps in Canada: Vancouver, Edmonton, the 2 camps in Calgary and Regina.
I have never been more disgusted in my life.
Prairie Fire
Changing from our current Centrally Planned Economies to another variation of Centrally Planned Economies will do nothing.
Fixed your rant for ya....
PsychicWebbah
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8932687/Portugal-raids-pension-funds-to-meet-deficit-targets.html
Audit the Fed reveals details of 16 trillion in secret bailouts
http://www.dailypaul.com/187659/audit-the-fed-reveals-details-of-16-trillion-in-secret-bailouts
I hope you don't get caught on the wrong side like Prtugal has............
**they want an unending stream of handout money**
Who do these OWS people think they are...too big to fail banks for god sake? The unending stream of handout money should only go to the one percenters. Or the real "Fucking scumbags".
We the people are tp big to fail and will get bailed out!
PsychicWebbah - you are 50% of the way to understanding the moral hazard of bailouts, QE, and crony capitalism.
I was thinking 35%.
Most of the sad-sacks flaming you were the ones that took the loans and maxed the cards. "High on the hog" for a while.
They demand you feel sorry for them and pay in kind now that the party is over.
IMO...you are the fucking idiot Psychic bitch, either that or you are a shill!
Jordan is absolutely right! They're system must be destroyed and the best way to do that is default on debt and limit the amount of taxes you are volunteering!
Freedom is choices. Increasing your debt is your choice. Those who have spent recklessly are paying the piper.
Thanks for bringing the rest of it down with your poor money management.
It is hard to imagine that simply handling of money has turn so fucked up. The moral hazard of desires for wealth has become such a dog chasing its tail, no sane person will admit it.
Fun times.
Fuck boys. Give the little people some leeway. They are bombarded daily by Crack Dealers selling Hopium.
I've been repudiating the very concept of debt by not going into it in the first place.
"Neither a borrower nor a lender be, do not forget, stay out of debt." -- Harold Hecuba's Hamlet as featured on Gilligan's Island.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXId5jOTxdg
I was thinking 3-5 months for a credible solution.
Yeah, me too. I don't think I can stand 3 to 5 more years of this shit.
'Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war.'
Species fail...
Agreed about delevering- there hasn't been any real pain in deleveraging yet, which means that there hasn't been any work done yet-
No pain, no gain....
Good stuff, but falls into the "Captain Obvious" category now for most of us.
"Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war."
"Albert Pike...paging Mr. Albert Pike. You're wanted on Line WWIII, please!"
Hey what's up with the DOW slide happening today?
The hopium wore off - the truth has come back to haunt everyone. The bad Chinese PMI figures plus the downgrade are finally working their way into the collective consciousness.
November 14, 2011 – White Hats Report #32
OBAMAS ARE DELIVERED A BLOW - BUSH SENIOR'S CABAL IS NEXT
Obama continues to travel giving speeches planning for his next election. He still has not consented and allowed any of the payments to patriotic Americans, which will get this country and the world economies back on track.
The Obamas on Wednesday, November 9th, 2011, were hand delivered the document below by high level government officials. It contains an IRS Report regarding the misappropriated funds. We want all readers to specifically note that per investigation and the document below, a large amount of funds were transferred to the Royal Bank of Canada into an account of Michelle Obama. In addition to the information the White Hats have previously reported and this document, we can further confirm that since November 9th, The Obamas have already illegally moved funds again out of these accounts.
We anticipate that Geithner will simply bury this legally filed report in a drawer. What will Obama and Michelle say when the account history of these funds is distributed to the White House staff, Congress, world leaders, our global readers and delivered into other legal authorities? The filing of this report alone to the IRS, if properly addressed, should sink him.
While we are musing over The Obamas, let us further entertain what the Bush family will think when someone begins to push to destroy the George H.W. Bush legacy over his own ill-gotten funds. These funds exceed 350 Billion Dollars deposited in various banks throughout the world, and the history of these funds is being prepared for distribution to legal authorities and for reporting to the world.
Senior’s state of mind may not let him fully understand, but now that his wife Barbara and son Jeb are taking over, how will they react to the fact that the Bush family legacy is destroyed as they suffer and pay for the actions of the father? How will they feel when the Bush name is removed from public places, airports, etc?
More to come…
http://tdarkcabal.blogspot.com/
The Order
The name Scull and Bones gave themselves over 150 years ago.
The Order- 322
322 comes from the Spring solstice, when the darkness moves into the light. The Order is waiting for the Dawn of the New Day. Now that all world Central Banks have their interest rates tied at their hips, they are prepared for this sun splash.
End the Order
Destroy the Order!!! This Criminal Cabal will be Globally exterminated.
I would promote that 322 comes from 333, Choronzon, Lord of All Forms,
manifestation of YaddaSatanBlaph, Progenation of the Void, the Feminine
in it's destructive aspect, mystically speaking, and that 322 is 333 requiring
the 11, the 'GREAT WORK' of imposing the Love is the Law, Love under Will
crapolla of the OTO and the Masonic fucktards and other semi literate
'mystics' and peices of shit being prepared for the allmighty and exceptionally
warm Lake of Fire.
Hmm.
Obviously your dad is also your mom's brother. Correct?
no immunity from these crimes.
I looked at that whitehat website - there's no evidence or any real documents backing up these hyperbole claims... sorry - get the evidence or stop nonsense -
not that Obama isn't a mediocrity, a loser and a liar and traitor of the people who voted for him and the US in general - and a hypocrite... Mr. "Prince of "Peace" - more like anti-christ, except nah - to stupid, but Big O probably works for mr AC - but that doesn't mean he has 11 or 12 Billion USDs hidden in Canada - but IF he does I'm sure everyone wants to see the evidence.... - it would be something - it would be fun...
in the meantime, perhaps we should leave ZH free of the worst potatohead melodrama conspiracy rumors...?
I never look at blogs folks spam here. I trust the TDs to do that for me. After all, if ORI was really sharing something insightful and useful, he would be a contributor here.
Regards,
Cooter
Lolz. You never saw his commercial site for his design / ergonomic services?
You have missed something truly special. It looks like a site thrown together by a 6 yr old. Design, huh? Honeypot design.
If you want evidence of payment, check out the BIS website. Bernanke and Obama are on the board, and they get paid with shares.
In fact, as the Fed is a Corporation, they have shareholders as well. What do you think about Obama and all politicians being shareholders there? Would this explain why Senators go along with Fed policy so willfully?
And would it explain how they get such good insider information?
the bush family ain't about shit. they are pimps just like the rest of those idiots in the skull and bones bullshit. forget about them. they are nothing. look elsewhere ......
"¡Defenderé el peso como un perro! – "I will defend the peso like a dog!" It earned him the nickname 'El perro' (The dog) and having people barking at him. 1981." Jose Lopez Portillo, the President of Mexico after he devalued the Peso.
I remember that. And instead of lifting a hand to help the peso, he lifted a leg.
Believe Kyle Bass when he says not to trust the promises of TPTB.
Let women drive. It is the only answer to our debt problem.
Be careful what you ask for....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39qdhbkTko4
Bass sees a three-to-five year window
FFS...
Finally, someone else proclaims that the " e " in P/E is wrong. A totally useless metric created through wild west accounting schemes.
I supposed it could be argued quite well that it has always been a fuzzy view some degree. But, what we have now is completely opaque.
The "e" is there, and it's very real. U.S. corporations large enough to be listed on the S&P index have experienced the most profitable couple of years ever, thanks to the U.S. Government.
* Labor costs way down thanks to NAFTA and globalization
* Capital costs way down due to ZIRP
* High demand for goods & services due to increased Government spending on Medicare prescription drug plan, two wars (huge defense contracts), endless bailouts, ARRA, extended jobless benefits, yada yada.
* Corporate taxes at all-time low. Don't raise taxes to pay for the increased spending, as that would be a drag on the "nascient recovery" Borrow the money.
* Print a few trillion Stimulous Bucks to buy impaired assets (toxic MBS) and U.S. debt.
As long as the Federal Gov't can continue spending 40% more than it takes in, the "e" will continue. When it no longer can do that, the shit hits the fan.
End the madness, suffer the withdrawal symptoms, and get healthy.
We are witnessing a coup by the banksters who are trying to set up a globalist, corporatist, technocratic, communitarian dictatorship commonly known as the 'New World Order'. National sovereignty is being destroyed. The EU has put its satraps into Greece and Italy so that these countries are now effectively provinces of the EU. Spain and Portugal are the next targets.
How do they do it? Manipulating systems.
This will not end well.
I say the NWO started with and is controled from the US - and really just an extension or new-face incarnation of the old world order - that is to say the anglo-jewish financiers who came up alongside and via British Empire.
The old Bush used the word - and he would know, being top rank elite servant, all ivy and CIA.
NWO is run via US Empire - its prime instrument, which controls IMF, World Bank.
Yes, other forces are trying to exert influence in the international institutions, but the world's other forces are still submissive to US military and US megalomania, provincially marveling at the absolute shamelessness and indiscete self-love and self-promotion of US empire - and for that, I will have to conceede that at least in this matter the rest of the world is provincial and peasant like - a strange phenomenon since the "best" in sophistication the US can come up with is Hollywood "Stars" in all their personal and peculiar varieties of provincialism and marvel over their own new-found glory and nobility - ah well, they know the trick, to seem humble and unchanged by the fawning and the fuzz. Anyway, it is but the feathers of empire, the gloss of pretension, the pearls to throw at the natives on foreign strands.
And so, my friends - NWO is still, so far, an unfinished projetc - and - it is in the hands of the US - and so, consequently, to strike it to its death, one must strike US Empire.
Death to the empire (just stop worshipping and supporting it - support the troops, bring them home) !!!
LONG LIVE THE REPUBLIC!!! Ron Paul 2012
Hey,,,want to get ritch...???
Kitco says on their charts that you can lease Gold/silver for up to six months and they will pay You.... to lease the metals.
Negative....rates,for gold/silver for1,2 ,3,and 6 moth rates......
where do I lease this gold for such a good deal.?
And is -0.4573% a good deal....thats negative -0.4573% ,for 1 month.?
Thanks in advance.
A truth teller.
i usually watch videos but it's friday, been a long week, i know the world is ending and i'm going to get drunk now.
Dr Housing Bubble reports some shocking housing facts:
With the Federal Reserve promising to bailout the entire world it is hard to grab any headlines away from that kind of action. In spite of putting the American taxpayer at risk for global debt issues especially when we have big enough problems at home we have now reached an all-time high with foreclosure inventories. That is correct, the shadow inventory is still enormous and the number of homes owned by banks is now at record levels. Of course this was all predictable like seeing a pig work its way through a python. The large bet that has failed was the belief that simply holding onto overpriced assets for two, three, and even four years would somehow allow home prices to catch up. The suspension of mark-to-market accounting and other shenanigans are now coming home to roost and home prices are making post-bubble lows. In other words, the day of reckoning for housing is already here. Don’t look now but foreclosure inventories are at record levels. What does this mean for housing going forward?
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/judgment-day-for-housing-shadow-inven...
So what happens next?
BULLDOZERS
It's quite simple and elegant:
1. Fill the garages of those foreclosed homes with exploding GM Volts.
2. ???
3. PROFIT!!!!
What happens next? The banks become REITs and start renting the homes out to Americans... while lobbying for new regulations that make it next to impossible for anyone else to be a landlord.
Peacetime?
We've been engaged in the most wealth destroying series of wars in history.. and financed it with debt. The scenario we are facing is the post war collapse, not the leadup to war. We are rapidly losing our ability to pour money down the sinkhole of war and will shortly be forced to downsize the war machine leading to more unemployment for the returning soldiers... the usual scenario for domestic political upheaval.
Ok we all like Kyle but to stop this post turning into 300 comments of "Kyle so gets it" (many cogent ZH readers do) could we all just reply to this comment with a +1 if you want Mr Bass to eat your first born and/or cum on your wifes tits.
This is nothing new afterall.
Athankyou.
Neither are your wifes' tits.....
Kyle Bass after having been a Ninja HF corsair, now plays at being soothsayer. An arsonist turned fireman, a Rhett Butler turned into a Sherman? Or is he still Stone Wall Jackson, brilliant general in a lost cause?
If I understand him, the West is now the South and will lose the war as it has no solution, to its own self generated debt Armageddon, except War or total attrition. Not bad, Stone Wall Jackson.
And that's why they tell you not to mix metaphors.
Mixing metaphors ain't the problem, mixing fact with fiction is. Delusional world of finance and its scions, like those of the Confederacy.
The Confederacy was hardly delusional, were it not for one bad decision in Pennsylvania they would likely have pulled it off.
Its far from over- we sent Bernanke to the Yankees and as they say he who laughs last laughs best. The inevitability of millions of government dependent urban northerners broken, jobless, and without any useful skills induces much hilarity below the Mason Dixon.
People who live in glass houses shouldn't sink ships.
"...and how this tearing at the social fabric of the world will lead to - war."
BINGO!
(sad - but true)
Funny how he talks about the IMF being created by a Soviet spy.
REPUDIATE YOUR DEBT.
The momentum grows: DEBTORS REVOLT – intentional *default-en-masse* to hasten the collapse of the predatory lending system and the plutocracy into which our country has morphed.
Join us. Simply refuse to play their game, and repudiate your debts – just walk away. The system, as it has transformed over the past 15 years, is simply rigged against you and offers you no mercy. So show no mercy in return; just default. Watch what happens – their power depends upon OUR cooperation, and our continued fear. Reset and rebuild from there.
DEBTORS’ REVOLT — DEFAULT EN MASSE. The Founding Fathers revolted against England over far, far less.
I have lots of respect for Kyle Bass. The guy obviously does his homework. I'm still about a third of the way through the video but here are my favorite take aways so far
-Greece is fully Broke: Greece borrows at 4.4% and spend 16% on interest. The TROIKA owns 40% of Greece's debt. So, the 60% is owned by others. A 50% write down is a complete write-down. Greece is totally broke.
-The IMF was created to assist in small balance of payments problems. Nations put capital into the IMF as a rainy day fund. They are structured to only handle small sized countries. The IMF has issues functioning with middle sized countries let alone Europe. One of the creators of the IMF was a Russian spy.
-On Europe vs US: the people in Europe believe the US is worst off than Europe. However, we have fully re-capitalized our banks and Europe has not. Europe's banks are 3x more leveraged than ours and have yet to be re-capitalized
Here's a copy of the paper Kyle mentions @29:30.
Free.
The Black Swan of Cairo
How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less
Predictable and More Dangerous
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyt
http://jamesshinn.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/The-Black-Swan-of-Cairo...
Too. A stellar place to throw some fuck-you money into.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MTG+Interactive#chart1:symbol=mtg;ran...
"One of the creators of the IMF was a Russian spy."
LOL. I just knew it was a communist conspiracy. Let's get those bastards.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
Is it me or did he says he talked to a senior Obama administration official who admitted their plan was to devalue the dollar???
That's what he said. devalue more.
He actually said they'll "kill the dollar."
Ya. Killing the dollar, devaluating it... same thing. Killing it is going all the way.
That's how the US can inflate there way out of debt. Clearly this is a Geithner/Bernanke/Fed Reserve game plan. They will never admit this to the public. You pay off your debt with cheaper and cheaper dollars the more you print. This works to a degree except that commodities everywhere are priced in dollars and no one can escape this fact which will lead to crazy worldwide inflation.
This is economics 101 btw.
It's interesting that Todd Groome, to Kyle's right, mentions Brazil backstopping Euro. He says Brazil will want more voting power in the IMF. Welll here's proof:
Brazil ready to support IMF but demands greater power for BRICS countrieshttp://en.mercopress.com/2011/12/02/brazil-ready-to-support-imf-but-dema...
UPDATE 3-IMF acting behind the scenes in euro zone crisishttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/imf-brazil-idUSN1E7B10AQ20111202
we are too far down the road to turnaround at this point, it is already baked in, hang on for the ride
woohoo!
GS Bullish on Oil says Business Insider:
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-commodities-outlook-2011-12...
This is a no-brianer with all the wars going on and Barry expanding the military...bound to lead to increased demand for..or fights for the Black Gold.
USING some of the "ADVICE " this mediaocre shark KB brings to market :
1.Fact : EUROPE has since the inception of the UNION had a POSITIVE CURRENCY and TRADING BALANCE towards the remaining world for MOST of its time ... MEANING ; MORE MONEY HAS BEEN EARNED THAN HAS BEEN SPENT ..overall ! analogy: look at Your own purse : for how long did You make more in a year ..than You spent ? .. Now ask Yourself .. WHO is BROKE ? The one u traded and exchanged money with for all this time ... or You ? ITS THAT SIMPLE ... and dont believe in all the HUMBUG you are presented with ! Look at Your own purse.. and its easy !
2. Fact : Look at the BIS DATA : WHO OWS MONEY TO WHOM ? there You have it ! The NET !
3. FACT : If we look at GOUVERNMENTS . WHO OWS GOUVERNMENT BONDS ? Is the debt owed EXTERNALLY or INTERNALLY ? Cause THAT makes a BIG difference . You can make a deal internally .. but will find it more difficult .. with strangers. Thats quite normal ! tHE TRUTH IS.. THAT european debt ( WHICH IS TOO HIGH ) ..mainly IS OWED TO european PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS.
iN ANGLOSAXON MEDIA IT IS PRETENDED AS IF THIS DEBT IN SOME WAY IS OWED TO THE US OR SOME OTHER anglosaxon entity. The opposite IS THE TRUTH. the anglosaxon world ows OVER 4 trillion usd TO european banks .... net !
4,FACT BONDS ? EUROPE ... holds more US DEBT ( aka US TREASURIES ) than any other entity in the World . The US holds reltively LITTLE european Debt . It is held mainly by European institutions !
So my dear US Citicens .. dont worry so much about Europe.. u wont loose so much should we go down !
Unfortunately .. the opposite cant be said to be true.. Europe holds far too much US DEBT and far too much USD ... which by the way have done nothing but go down .. for as long as I can remember
That's about the best hour I've spent in a while. I question his investment in MTG, though. Their ratings leave a lot to be desired. "http://mtg.mgic.com/company/ratings.html#mgic_ratings" It they are this low now, what will happen come Armageddon?
Kyle Bass is SMOKIN'
+inf
So... WHO NEEDS A WAR ?
Definitely not EUROPE ! I can see other entities in far bigger need for distraction ! And they are doing their best in that direction . as we can see ...
We in Europe have had enough of that kind of escape.. and thats one more reason. why the EURO NOT will dissapear..as some anglosaxons would prefer..
In fact .. the anglosaxon financial sharks are doing us .. in Europe .. a favour .. right now... they are forcing us to put our house in order... which we will do !
So what is attempted for the time being from that side .. is like peeing in the trousers.. itl warm for a little time .. then become rather unpleasant !
Just like last year, the interviewer chews on and spins his glasses. Quite distracting.
Where have I seen those charts before? Oh yeah, here on ZH (wink, wink)
I love Kyle. I'm stocking up on all things physical: beans, bandages, bullets and bullion. But if I had extra wealth to protect, I would definitely spread it between Bass and Sprott.
That interviewer sure wanted an easy(er) way out; Several times he pushed for extending the current situation until we can fix our policies <shaking my head>. He just can not accept that some pain now is better than collapse later. As if our politicians, given more time, will do the right thing. <more head shaking> I just don't see that ever happening. Our politicos will only respond to crisis.
Kyle does give one glimpse of hope. Perhaps, as Europe and Japan collapse, the U.S. will see the light and reform our ways. But Kyle didn't look very confident about that happening.
Another good interview by Kyle. Yay Kyle!
USA can sort itself out easily enough without going in the scenario above ( NWO ). Close FED and use PM as money. Stop policing the world, and learn to live within the means. The dream of world domination always ends bad. Stop working against Russia is another good idea.
Same for the Western Europe.
Asia fucked up by letting their populations grow out of control, and I personally am sorry about that, but I guess they have to share what they have.
Africa need to watch their population growth.
And so on...
Short version: Ron Paul 2012.
That is right, he would be perfect choice. But it is too important to rest on one person only, there has to be wide understanding of what needs to be done, and that is why the long version is better in this case, even as I usually prefer short versions myself.
I have to say I don't trust Bass - he looks like a Scut and acts like a Scut.
A independent CB can defecit spend without paying interest - its called debt free money and can work if you can create real core capital , the Dollar is already a synthetic Greenback , as interest payments on money above inflation is all about wealth extraction - this is beginning to stop because they must.
Sure Greece will default under current circumstances because it is a colony and not a country.
The most important metric is energy use per capita which in Western Europe / Japan is in the 3700KG to 3900KG KOE range at least in 2009 while in USA / Canada is 7000KG to 7400KG KOE range.
And yet North America is in dramatic defecit !!! , it however has far more domestic resourses then Europe - which is why Europe took out Libya -
Libya had a higher energy use per capita then Greece at 2963KG vs 2574KG in 2008 - today Greece pays the highest petrol prices in Europe at 1.67 Euro a litre and declining wages so I guess its energy density is closer to 2000KG.
Europe needed to take out Libyas consumption - which they have , they just need to start production again and prevent Libyan consumption.
The decline of Europe & maybe Japan is all about transfering the global energy surplus to US and its terrible twin China - the ECB is a offshoot of the FED and is just following orders as the Goldman boys running Europe need the US treasuary to survive.
Their prime objective is the Imperium - they need to pay the troops..............
The ECB is helping the "markets" to take down Europes energy density further as perhaps they believe our culture can take it.
Are you forgetting about us Dork?
Although maybe not recognized as a full-fledged "Euro Member" I would like to inform you that we currently experience petrol prices of € 1.81 a litre at current exchange rate.
Who would that be? Well oil producing Norway of course.
The no-tax-paying, olive-oil producing Greek still has an 8% upside at the pumps.
That'll be your taxes. At least your books balance and with your own domestic oil supply as long as you dont go full-keynsian retard and introduce an open door immigration policy and/or decide everyones standard of living should improve 10 fold even if they dont want to work , you'll be one of the better-offs.
Dork makes an interesting point though.
"Dork makes an interesting point though"
That Sir might be the understatement of the year.
The point of all points:
It isn't money that makes the world go round, it is energy.
Sorry LMAO I forgot - I was just looking at EU countries - both the Netherlands & Greece pay the highest prices for Petrol in the eurozone at 1.67 in October - but yee are ok as it can be recycled I guess.
The info can be easily found in www.google.ie/publicdata - "fuel prices in Europe" which does not cover Norway for some funny reason.
Greece had 81cent a litre prices in Jan 2009 , now its 1.67
Holland had 1.25 cent a litre in Jan 2009 , now its also 1.67 - so therefore Greece has went through a bigger oil shock with more then a doubling of price in less then 3 years.
Sir Dork of Cork
It matters not how high petrol prices move in Greece because no one has a car... Try a donkey. How are thos Irish developers doing over in Boston these days? Here Mr. Drumm is doing swimmingly and wifey not bad either. Are you emmigrating to Argentina?
Cheap Steak & Chilean wine sounds nice..............
PS just looking a Europes energy portal for December - the UK has the most expensive Diesel by far at 1.659 Euro !!!
Of course the French have the cheapest electricity for industrial users and one of the cheapest for consumers despite having no coal or gas................ beating even Polands cheap coal centric economy - while also employing tens of thousands of Hi tech high paying jobs in the domestic economy - Europe badly needs a Huge Nuclear programme to be financed with interest free money.
As to Diesel compared to Petrol, Norway has this week managed to close the price-gap completely between the 2.
All in all part of the grand government scam to fleece the owners of diesel-driven cars. (special thanks to Socialistic Left party who in 2007 decided that Diesel didn't pollute as much and was a great tool to combat environmental issues)
First they promote the use of diesel and consequently, as more and more people end up with Diesel cars, they slap them in the face with additional taxation.
These policy makers, corrupt to the bone arse-holes the lot of them.
In the UK petrol has been cheaper than diesel for many years, in fact the difference has never been greater than it is now. Diesel is approximately £0.09/€0.10/$0.14 more per litre.
The tax is identical on both fuels. Diesel costs more to refine than petrol.
so.. 1.67 or 1.80 euro/liter is like ...
$8.45 or $9.11. / gallon.
in the usa gasoline is currently about $3.70 / gallon.
.....
seems like a great disparity all other things being equal
but of course none of the other things are equal; except
that one other thing that we both, in the usa and in europe,
have a banker infestation problem destroying the functions
of governance and the family.
Natural gas in the US is around $3.50 and in Japan/Korea over $10.00. That is why the US will become the world's largest exporter of liquid natural gas, from Texas of all places, Sabine Pass.
$3.70!?!?
Yikes, I gassed up at $3.01/gal a couple days ago.
new york metro area... 3.70.
where 3.01? texas?
edit: I deleted my comment
The most important metric is energy use per capita which in Western Europe / Japan is in the 3700KG to 3900KG KOE range at least in 2009 while in USA / Canada is 7000KG to 7400KG KOE range.
I think you overstate the importance of this metric. It's heavily dependent on population density. Obviously small and densely populated countries have an overwhelming advantage to minimizing that number.
But urbanization of the large and distributed countries' population can dramatically reduce the energy user per capita figure without a major impact on relative standard of living.
The debt-free money idea is all well and good, but I'd bet a transition to a debt-free currency by any significant economy will lead directly (and almost immediately) to war.
Sure - it is a very crude metric - its much like GDP - it does not give a true understanding of end use consumption.
For instance if I travel to work in a Fiat 500 or Hummer it does not really improve my standard of living either way - It just increases my energy consumption if I drive the later and gives a boost to GDP if the oil is domestic.
Although men with smaller then average sexual reproductive organs may find driving such a Italian / Polish dinky uncomfortable.
PS I agree - Mefo bills was a one ball interest free money and look what happened !!!!
If your reproductive organs are small enough, maybe you could enjoy a Hummer WHILE driving a Fiat.
OT - Kyle Bass looks like Joe Bob Briggs.
‘Indefinite Detention’ Bill Passes Senate 93-7
http://www.infowars.com/indefinite-detention-bill-passes-senate-93-7/
Holy fucking shit
At least 15 people on this page do qualify for indefinite detention. TD needs to be more responsible than ever before.
@" ...qualify.."
speech itself is abhorrent, as is thought. the authorities
work night and day to eliminate all of it. the phrase
" eternal sunshine of the spotless mind " comes to mind.
i should be incarcerated for the betterment of the spotless
elite, i'm sure, but it won't happen, there, another great
injustice. you too would be better off curtailed in a similar
fashion. the vaccines and medications just never deliver
as advertised. as i said, they are working on it on the taxpayer's
dime.