Kyle Bass Explains The New World Order - Panel Presentation

Tyler Durden's picture

Unlike the broad consensus of prognosticators who feel the road for the US is a decade or more, Bass sees a three-to-five year window for a credible solution to the debt saturation or else kicking the can will cease to have any impact. The reason for the proximity is the acceleration of what happens in Europe and Japan with that respective chronology his central view - which he sees a s critical in understanding for every money manager.

In this extended interview at AmeriCatalyst, he points to the optimistic self-deception biases that leave people unable to comprehend the scenarios as they either lead to a really bad outcome or a nominally bad outcome. Using the Lehman moment as an example, Bass explains how we have been conditioned to believe there is always a backstop or savior...now those backstops at a corporate and sovereign level (central banks and the IMF for example) are being called into question in their roles (being seen for what they are - as just promises) and it is the chasm between what we want to believe and what does happen that is enormous and leaves the extreme volatility, risk-on/risk-off market the way it is.

Reiterating how critical the psychology of today's situation, Bass goes on to debunk the optimism of globalization (at least for the Western world), destroy the myth of a 50% greek writedown solution, Japanese xenophobia and savings losses, structural versus cyclical implications for US equity deterioration, US deficits and housing's bottom, global debt saturation and how this tearing at the social fabric of the world will lead to - war.

Click image for video (no embed available)

This extended interview includes some of the following views (among many others):

On Greece:

For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.

On the IMF and its role as global savior

He discusses in some detail Keynes and the IMF formation and the new world order he foresees as our era of the largest peacetime accumulation of global debt has no precedent (as it has historically ended in conflict or been created by conflict).

And how this debt saturation will inebitably play out:

Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war.

And summarizing for every long-only talking head pitch-man:

This is not a cyclical rebound from a crisis we had two years and you should NOT be buying stocks because a P/E ratio is low relative to historical S&P behavior because the E is wrong. We are going to see declines and people don't know how to position themselves for declines. We are at peak earnings now! Earnings only look good because if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet.

We need to delever globally. We haven't delevered. Just now we are seeing marginal delevering in Europe and all hell is breaking loose. An summing up:

Consensus is US low/slow GDP growth - no recession, US better than Europe, Europe mild recession, muddle through, go all in to Emerging markets as that's where the convexity is.

 

The consensus is never going to be right.

 

I don't get paid to be an optimist or a pessimist. I get paid to be a realist and the realist negative currently.

 

Don't believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.

(h/t EnnuiHenry)

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Freddie's picture

You sound like you voted for the Muslim in 2008.

Joe Sixpack's picture

"Instead he quietly focuses on the job he was appointed to do"

Is that to shaft all Europeans?

Thomas.2012's picture

MillionDollarBaby, nice you said appointed to and not elected to ... lol

Hero? Quietly focus? You must be a family member ... lol

WhiteNight123129's picture

MDB´s priceless hilarious tongue in cheek BS... thanks for the 30 sec laughter

kill switch's picture

Don't you have another house to haunt? Right Wing////Left Wing////YOU JUST EXPOSED YOURSELF FUCK STICK..... sarc//on// off,,, i don't know

Jack Burton's picture

LOve your posts Million Dollar Bonus! Especially your glowing support for the "great leader" Van Rompuy. Never has Europe been more blessed than with this unelected leader of great repute. A man for our times, a leader blessed with the common touch and a man of the people.

Van Rompuy is the 21st century Napoleon, the 21st centry Otto Von Bismarck, the modern Abe Lincoln and Europe's George Washington rolled into one. A great man and a born leader of the Euro Zone! All hail the Dear Leader!

Everybodys All American's picture

Here is the problem. If not for the EU and power whores like Van Rompuy Greece would have already been on it's way back to economic viability. They would have defaulted like Iceland and been on the way to recovery. However,because the powerful elite now composed inside the ECB and EU offices the Greek people continue to be left swaying in the winds of an unsustainable debt situation. Why would they do this to anyone? Because it's all about their power. I don't think this really is a description of a hero?

infinity8's picture

Do you write comedy for a living?

VyseLegendaire's picture

Thanks BDP, you manage to quite accurately capture the vaccuous doublespeak of all our favorite unelected Godeaucrats these days.

NorthPole's picture

Do you know who is van Rompouy by profession? He is.... are you ready for this? ... a poet.

MFL8240's picture

Of course, if you elect Paul and do away with Federal Jewish Cabal handing money to the Jewish banking cabal, they will have to work rather than steal for a living.

Conrad Murray's picture

Will the moleh still get to suckle blood from the freshly circumcised little baby boy's penis? Mezizah, as they call it.

reboot this mofo's picture

hey, lay off the Jews as I am a fellow Jewbinski, OK! Now...where are my matzo balls??  :)

economics1996's picture

Who hath woe?
Who hath sorrow?
Who hath contentions?
Who hath babbling?
Who hath wounds without cause?
Who hath redness of eyes?
They that tarry long at the wine;
they that go to seek mixed wine.
Look not thou upon the wine when it is red, when it giveth his color in the cup,
when it moveth itself aright.
At the last it biteth like a serpent,
and stingeth like an adder.
Thine eyes shall behold strange women,
and thine heart shall utter perverse things.
Yea, thou shalt be as he that lieth down in the midst of the sea,
or as he that lieth upon the top of a mast.
They have stricken me, shalt thou say, and I was not sick;
they have beaten me, and I felt it not:
when shall I awake?
I will seek it yet again.

—Proverbs 23:29-35

... crumbs's picture

Yo if you had any balls ya wouldn't be here

Whoops

Ahmeexnal's picture

Are you referring to all those receiving food stamps/oil under $500 a barrel/free education in socialist europe/medicare/ and countless other socialized rackets?

If you are, I agree. Time for oil consuming slobs to work in order to pay a real price for oil instead of stealing it from oil producing countries.

Hope you are happy when $50/gallon comes to you next time you fill your SUV's tank.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

John Davison Rockefeller....

Not a Jew!

Pope Clement's picture

But maybe a made man and capo in the Redshield Priory?

GlenD's picture

What can Ron Paul do, print money outside the fed, been tried before, Kenedy was shot because of it.  People have to realize there is no government anymore, it was hijacked long ago by the global banking cartel. Apart from all out revolution the only way to stop the corruption is for us all unite and say no, refuse play along their game until they vacate government officers and go back to the hellhole they came from.

Mesquite's picture

Not only Pres. Kennedy... But before him, Pres. Lincoln..

And before him, Pres. Jackson (almost)..

And, each time, We the People, are fed the same line:

It was a lone crazed gunman...

i-dog's picture

 

  "refuse play along their game until they vacate government officers"

Yep ... let's all just sit in the corner and hold our breath!

BTW, how did that work out for you as a 2-yr-old? Got the "blues"?

How about getting your [formerly] sovereign state government to throw them out of their DC offices?

SECEDE NOW!!

High Plains Drifter's picture

i am so shocked...........

 

a former jew talks  about the political future of our dear doctor paul.

 

http://www.realzionistnews.com/?p=677

 

as they say in brooklyn............fagettaboutit..........

Divine Wind's picture

Hmmmm.

If I were a Jew, I would not invite him to anything.

RP has repeatedly publicly stated he would end blatant support for Israel.

It is this one fact that would make me never vote for him, regardless of how much I love all of his other policy positions.

Ruffcut's picture

I like order. Law and order. Has worked for thousands of year.

But it needs to be the rule of law and not the law of these rulers.

New world bullshit, control of human rights from the gods gift to freedom.

Rights to be useless, homeless and to be internet trolls.  THere are no rights to say you work and deserve more useless stuff. The whole system is well above clusterfuck status.

Karma is going to be a real bitch, this time.. bitchezzz

Oh regional Indian's picture

But it needs to be the rule of law and not the law of these rulers

 

Nice ruffcut..well said. Natural law too, at that.

ORI

saiybat's picture

Subjects have no rights

eureka's picture

Who are the knuckleheads who don't understand that US Empire is the very reason for the existence of the US FEDERAL RESERVE - and Pentagon & CIA. Who does not understand that?

Who thinks that a nation needs 1,000+ military bases spread out over 95% of the countries of the world - just in order to protect itself?

Who does not understand that such an empire serves the institutions of such empire - i.e. the owners - and of course their best paid minions?

Who does not understand that the purpose of the FED is to finance the hyper-consumption and under-productivity of such empire?

Who does not understand that the enemy of "we the people" is this country's very own institutions who serve the hyper rich elite and their capital collectives and pseudo-persons a.k.a. corporations, who by a super majority are all bailed out by the citizen taxpayers - while they evade taxes? 

Who is so dumb and proud of US military hardware and USDs spent on it that he/she cannot possibly think logically about who serves who?

Is it not clear that US empire does not serve "we the people"?

Or is it just that losers like thinking they have part in the glory of institutions, which usurp the name and the control of the very nation, who feeds them?

Must the US default and go bankrupt or start WWIII before the collectivist, nationalist, vicariously wealthy in domination proud, finally realize the cost of the pretense of supremacy?

Disconnect, vanity and delusion - your name is US Hegemony & Empire.

Or - in simple words: end first US Empire - because NWO ends with it.

Cheers.

RafterManFMJ's picture

 

 

I enjoyed your comment! Please forward your address from FEMA camp Active Freedom when you arrive; I wish to correspond with you, yet remain un-red carded.

i-dog's picture

You have already been red-carded just for visiting ZH, you pussy. So you may as well make the most of it!

Even silent, unregistered, viewers are "tainted" by the truth - and their IP addresses linked to their FaceTwit accounts on the same list that we are on - so ... why not log in, make a statement, and give us a hand, eh?!

MobBarley's picture

Indeed, truth is like a viral infection that goes about giving men ideas.

We are , as has been publicly stated many times by our 'government',

the brains of our collective entity, in a war for minds and souls and ATMA's

and spirits and wines and sugar plantations and satiations of rampant

unchecked desires according to their plurality, and as such, ideas are

intellectual property subject to patent and the patent on truth was awarded

some carpenter from Galilee however since truth is really counterproductive

to battles and wars and possesion of souls and satiation of all wanton rampant

desires must be suppressed , no longer being of value to the state in the

one all seeing eye of the brain above, the Sauros Sauron WrathChilde collective.

 Our brain, infected with mercury and flouride and deep dark depression

having gone entirely suicidal , well, the hands and the feet and heart

are in revolt, saying 'What ails thee, my beloved brain? Thy intellect we

do adore, yet what madness is this that infects thee? Remember your blood?

Substance of your life? You propose to live without it, to replace it with

artifice made by thine own hand! Thus we revolt! Whom the cancer?

You or I? For once we did kindly agree on our needs, but now you

have masturbated to the point of total blindness, and burn the hair

from your palm daily, which grows to say 'No , share your seed as

we intended' ? Ah brain, you 5lb mass of oxygen consuming fucktard,

how shall we live without thee? In total anarchy, cell colony dissolved,

each cell to go its seperate way..perchance to recolonize the earth

in a time of peace for a millenia...an eaon without you'

 

 

taxpayer102's picture

@RafterManFMJ - full metal jacket

At this point Soldiers are needed, not sarcasm. eureka is speaking truth and nothing is more precious than truth.  If you're afraid of being red-carded for supporting truth then you're already a casualty.

RafterManFMJ's picture

Um, I was pointing out how far we've fallen while trying to introduce the term 'red card' can even 'blue card' into the mix - some will no doubt be curious enough to google such things.  If you probably even know what a RED CARD is, well, you probably already have one.

MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Anyone that is not afraid of the U.S. government today is a fool.  Anyone that does not have their free speech squelched by the police state is a fool.  The government is disappearing and assassinating American citizens at will.  Do you think this cannot happen to you?

 

Your bravado is nothing short of suicidal.  If you want to be a mouth piece for the resistance I recommend you leave the country and learn how to hide your identity on the internet from some overseas cafe on their wifi (with an offshore VPN or, preferably, TOR).  Otherwise you are just asking for imprisonment, torture, and death - all of which are perfectly legal for the U.S. government to carry out against you if they deem you a sufficient threat to "national security (the system you rail against is part of national security pal)."

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Alexander Hamiliton must be really happy.

... it's what he wanted America to be.

Big Business & Government working as one.

DaveyJones's picture

why can't his offspring find a similar fate?  

Ima anal sphincter's picture

Numero Uno traitor when this country was just forming. An agent of the banks. NOW........ we have thousands. They ALL must go.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

timmah to visit europeons

see:  faust 2.0: super mario brothers

Geithner to Meet German, Italian, ECB Officials - Bloomberg

(excerpt/paste): Geithner will meet French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and European Central Bank President Mario Drahgi during his Dec. 6-8 trip, the Treasury Department said in a statement today. He will return to Washington before the Dec. 9 summit in Brussels.

The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

We are The Borg.     Resistance is futile.    Just ask Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, for starters.

e-recep's picture

He is dead and probably completely decomposed.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

In answer to your questions, realizing that only about 10% of the population of the colonies rose up against the British (Not too sure if these firgures are in fact, fact; it's just what I've read here), probably about 95% of Americans.

infinity8's picture

"super majority" - how much do you love that phrase? = "super bad" and "bad" doesn't mean "good".

Sorynn's picture

Indoctrination is complete.  Please go back to your local programming... 

MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Domestic Terrorist. We should ask WB7 to create an ID card for us.