This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Kyle Bass Explains The New World Order - Panel Presentation

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Unlike the broad consensus of prognosticators who feel the road for the US is a decade or more, Bass sees a three-to-five year window for a credible solution to the debt saturation or else kicking the can will cease to have any impact. The reason for the proximity is the acceleration of what happens in Europe and Japan with that respective chronology his central view - which he sees a s critical in understanding for every money manager.

In this extended interview at AmeriCatalyst, he points to the optimistic self-deception biases that leave people unable to comprehend the scenarios as they either lead to a really bad outcome or a nominally bad outcome. Using the Lehman moment as an example, Bass explains how we have been conditioned to believe there is always a backstop or savior...now those backstops at a corporate and sovereign level (central banks and the IMF for example) are being called into question in their roles (being seen for what they are - as just promises) and it is the chasm between what we want to believe and what does happen that is enormous and leaves the extreme volatility, risk-on/risk-off market the way it is.

Reiterating how critical the psychology of today's situation, Bass goes on to debunk the optimism of globalization (at least for the Western world), destroy the myth of a 50% greek writedown solution, Japanese xenophobia and savings losses, structural versus cyclical implications for US equity deterioration, US deficits and housing's bottom, global debt saturation and how this tearing at the social fabric of the world will lead to - war.

Click image for video (no embed available)

This extended interview includes some of the following views (among many others):

On Greece:

For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.

On the IMF and its role as global savior

He discusses in some detail Keynes and the IMF formation and the new world order he foresees as our era of the largest peacetime accumulation of global debt has no precedent (as it has historically ended in conflict or been created by conflict).

And how this debt saturation will inebitably play out:

Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war.

And summarizing for every long-only talking head pitch-man:

This is not a cyclical rebound from a crisis we had two years and you should NOT be buying stocks because a P/E ratio is low relative to historical S&P behavior because the E is wrong. We are going to see declines and people don't know how to position themselves for declines. We are at peak earnings now! Earnings only look good because if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet.

We need to delever globally. We haven't delevered. Just now we are seeing marginal delevering in Europe and all hell is breaking loose. An summing up:

Consensus is US low/slow GDP growth - no recession, US better than Europe, Europe mild recession, muddle through, go all in to Emerging markets as that's where the convexity is.

 

The consensus is never going to be right.

 

I don't get paid to be an optimist or a pessimist. I get paid to be a realist and the realist negative currently.

 

Don't believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.

(h/t EnnuiHenry)

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:22 | Link to Comment Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

I smell desperation.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?c112:1:./temp/~c11247VFoe:e464889:
section 1032 says doesnt pertain to US citizens

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment slvrizgold
slvrizgold's picture

Don't hate the mirron because your ugly bitchez!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 19:47 | Link to Comment rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Bass is a smart puppy.  I wonder what the Keynesians think of the NWO. 

 

libertarian86.blogspot.com

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:33 | Link to Comment weinerdog43
weinerdog43's picture

Bass is a piece of human garbage.  The better question is what he is going to do to aleviate the suffering his .01% fuckwads are doing to the rest of us.  If he does not have a great answer pretty effen soon, I'll enjoy seeing his head on a pike.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 19:55 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Here's some news supporting Kyle's view of a globalist meltdown from the periphery inward: 

Portugal raids pension funds to meet deficit targets

Small countries all over will need to sell the family silver, monuments, buildings, beaches, scenic roads, and their citizens into slavery

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Maximilien Robe...
Maximilien Robespierre's picture

Caviar - great reference, I bet you everyone in the US still thinks their 401K's are safe and sound and won't get touched either.   When Uncle Sam needs the cash, he'll find it.  Either print it or take it through edict.   Either way the citizen is screwed.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:18 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Small countries all over will need to sell the family silver, monuments, buildings, beaches, scenic roads, and their citizens into slavery.-- Caviar Emptor

No, they won’t, Caviar. They can repudiate the contracts. It won’t be the first time contracts are torn up because times are bad. There’s a word for it. The word is default. And you don’t pay.

Catastrophe? Maybe, for the banks. Why not? Once Greece defaults, the other countries will say, that was easy, we’re going to default, too. What can the bankers do? Refuse all of Europe loans in the future? So…?  Establish new banks.

The people did not agree to these contracts with the investment bankers; their politicians did and it’s these same politicians who are delivering the assets of the people to the bankers. It’s up to the people to hold these politicians’ feet to the fire or to get new politicians who will repudiate the contracts.

The point is these countries are up against emergency situations. If the leaders of a country can take measures against their own people based on pacts they’ve made with the devil, i.e., Goldman Sachs et al., then they can turn and take measures against the bankers.

Why force the citizens to pay for something they didn’t order?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 19:59 | Link to Comment CaptFufflePants
CaptFufflePants's picture

That was a pleasure to watch. The full hour is worth it.

 

Amazing  these days if I see a youtube clip longer that 90 seconds I usually bail, this was A-list material.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Russia delivers cruise missles to Syria (AFP)

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gRiFZOAklLppFIe27RYEf...

Can you say firecracker?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Joaquin Juarez
Joaquin Juarez's picture

Can you say very big bomb dropped from 45,000 feet right on top of them...

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:08 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Kyle Bass is one of a handful of people that I would actually get off my ass and go hear speak if he was in town.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:14 | Link to Comment MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Kyle Bass is the "guns, gold, nickles" guy right? So?

"Domestic Terrorist!!!" //sarc (not really)

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:18 | Link to Comment evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

News from Europe:

 

No Eurobonds – no euro

According to the EU monetary chief, the eurozone may only have a few days left to find a way out of the crisis. But economic analyst Michael Mross believes that Germany would rather let the euro die than support the idea of Eurobonds.

 

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/english-news/8997-no-eurobonds--no-euro-

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Yes, she understands that it is the Euro and yielding German sovereignty to Goldman Sachs, VS. the will and interests of her people.

Germany is being told it is 'the strong country' and will call the shots in a New Eurold Order.  But this is of course bullshit. 

'There won't be any Vaterland, Pippen...'

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:22 | Link to Comment blabam
blabam's picture

Well that was depressing.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:35 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Interesting that the moderator and those she talks with have grown much more to the 'doom' side of the outlook spectrum (since the 2010 AmeriCatalyst KB interview). Kyle is still talking 3-5 yrs for us. IMHO he is being too sunny side. You can not lose Europe and Japan and have us standing. Its interlocked. Capital will flee and already pretty much as flown, the real problem after that is how we structurally have become dependent on that swell, only then to become undone by its departure. It could happen in weeks or months not in years.

My biggest concern right now it what Kyle did with the gold, only applied more broadly. He saw his exposure to the COMEX's 40-1 commitment compared to resources, found that the management had no plan other than locking the doors on the theater (IE - the proce will fix everything), and he pulled $1 billion of gold bullion leaving them with $1.4 billion remaining.

At some point the biggest, smartest players will begin to pull out real assets and give the "money" to the suckers. The theater will burn down in part because of many such actions. Obviously Kyle believes in being first in line, rather than last.

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:50 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

I think Kyle believes;

Rule 1.  Don't Panic

Rule 2. If you're gonna panic,  panic first.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:35 | Link to Comment 10044
10044's picture

did anyone else catch his comment on run on the comex?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:36 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

Yup - from 42:00...

When the man in charge of Comex delivery tells him that 'price will solve everything' if there's a physical short squeeze: "Thanks, gimme the gold". Classic.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:12 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

CD are you a Kyle Bass consultant? (hehe) -

he points to the optimistic self-deception biases that leave people unable to comprehend the scenarios as they either lead to a really bad outcome or a nominally bad outcome. Using the Lehman moment as an example, Bass explains how we have been conditioned to believe there is always a backstop or savior...now those backstops at a corporate and sovereign level (central banks and the IMF for example) are being called into question in their roles (being seen for what they are - as just promises) and it is the chasm between what we want to believe and what does happen that is enormous and leaves the extreme volatility, risk-on/risk-off market the way it is.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment steelrules
steelrules's picture

This guys word should be taken as gospel, but! when he says 3 to 5 years till it all falls apart is overly optimistic, the crash is now and it's accelerating.

We'll wake up one morning very soon and a new global currency / system will have been swindled in place over night.

Get Gold & Silver if you want to preserve any of your wealth at all. IMHO.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:31 | Link to Comment insidious
insidious's picture

Obummer gives you the change you can believe in. Kyle gives you the one thing that never changes that you can believe in (about governments): "They can and will never give you the truth."

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:39 | Link to Comment fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

If Japan fails and they currently own about 1 trillion of FRN they would not dump them in a panic? Does Kyle factor this in anywhere in his analysis?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:20 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

If Japan fails and they currently own about 1 trillion of FRN they would not dump them in a panic? Does Kyle factor this in anywhere in his analysis?

**************

If they did dump them it would likely send their bond yields through the roof-

They would in essence be selling off collateral-

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment steelrules
steelrules's picture

Japan may not have any option, as the TEPCO fiasco unwinds more and more Japanese will have to cash out their Japanese bonds for radiation related healt costs reconstruction or outright relocation from effected areas, not to mention the posibility of lawsuits coming from the spread of radiation outside of Japan.

Don't count on them holding onto US paper.

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:43 | Link to Comment indio007
indio007's picture

This guy is good at analytics but he seems to be a neo-fascist in some of his solutions. I really didn't like how he casually said "This means war" . Well I'm certain he on't be fighting in it and niether will any of his progeny. More technoratic elitist gibberish. His tell was citing a paper produced by the Council on Foreign Relations .

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

I've only seen a few of his interviews, but he doesn't appear to be a warmonger, just stating what he thinks will happen.

His distaste for politicians suggests the opposite, IMO.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:53 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

That's a major misinterpretation.  He's not advocating for war--he's predicting it. 

Along with his whole notion of, "I think they'll just print more money."

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 21:48 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

I love this guy, Kyle Bass is Gangsta! I wish he had a show

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Merkel and Sarkozy either don't understand what they're saying is needed, or don't know how to explain it.  Let me try:

French departments and German states will be the same.  MUST be.  They will report to one central fiscal department and will get and give taxes from same.

It's time to make a map of Germany and France without national boundaries, only local jurisdictions.  That and that alone will bring the point home.

This is just like the US in 1785, before the Constitutional Convention, but with currency union done ahead of the rest of it.  Problem: The 'rest of it' is a cataclysmic upheaval of the last 300 years of solidification of national identity and the political/legal/social structures that came with it. 

Interestingly, for countries other than France and Germany it will be less traumatic, either because the countries are smaller and operate much like they will in a fiscal union already (Belgium, Portugal, Netherlands) or have a less robust national history as opposed to regional/local identity (Spain, Italy).  It is France and Germany where this will cut to the bone. 

And all this for...banks and bondholders' profit?

IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN PEOPLE!!!  It will be war but not the kind the banksters are hoping for.  Or....will it?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Maximilien Robe...
Maximilien Robespierre's picture

Bankers win no matter what.  War? Win.  Peace? Win.  They are Darwinian Cheats.  Charlatans and alchemists masquerading as GOD or stewards of the people and always deserving of a piece of YOUR PRODUCTIVITY for their existence DOING NOTHING.   It is time for humans to evolve.   We do not need them.

They do less to build your house (mortgage) or educate you (college loans) than a pile of your own shit.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:22 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

"They can and will never tell you the truth."

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:34 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Here's the Deal!...Count on 0% intro APR for 12 months...then just an 18.99% variable APR" - Citi

MF Lulz.

Vikram, I can't wait until your shit gets flushed like your momma shoulda flushed her vagina.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:36 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Great job Mr. Bass and Tyler.

Over the decades, HollyWeird has been working on the masses. Just recently, OWS mass protest. Old movies always form new world order motives. The young ones become programmed to behave under what they see on TV. LOL

Shitlist (Natural Born Killers)

 

Boy do I remember the media spitfire on this movie back in the day. Today, if two homos/ carpet munchers are on TV entertaining you, its all good under the liberal/progressive program. Times have changed and we have 600 progressive cable channels to choose from. Weeeeeeeeeeee

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:42 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

great presentation but there were some inconsistencies. usa real estate market has bottomed and rental property is a good bet against asset value destruction occuring in the next 3-5 years even as they will print like crazy to avoid a meltdown caused by forced deleveraging. because of restructuring(debt forgiveness).

 

japan won't default because their banking structure is a faux greenback scheme not dependent upon reserve status like the dollar.

 

yes, the world will solve all of these issues with a massive capacity destruction event(war). i think the realization that it is the best and ultimate solution is on the table and is being implemented as we discuss the ramifications of this debt crisis.

that was the nost important projection. the rest was academic.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:59 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

usa real estate market has bottomed

Not even close.  What you think is a "bottom" is actually a (temporary) pause in the rate of depreciation because there's insufficient price discovery.

When the municipalities are all facing bankruptcy, there are going to be some significant changes in what's deemed a reasonable price for a domicile.  Rentals are good as long as they're cashflow positive, but look out for the tax increases some communities are going to attempt to try to keep the lights on and the cops working.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:02 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

it is not what i think(although i do agree it has where i live as long as the present chart remains static). it is what kyle said. the rest of what he said contradicts his assertion.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:14 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I'm not sure he said that, exactly.  Yes, the quip about the pig through the python and all, but that sounded to me more like he was saying the number of loans failing has stabilized.  Meaning the effective revenue losses have already been realized, regardless of book valuation.

Maybe the idea is that inflation will maintain static housing prices in nominal terms?

You may be right, though, it seemed like kind of a throwaway comment.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:27 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

it kind of fits in with his preservation of capital strategy based upon no leverage. in other words, if you buy an apartment building for cash(who does?), if intrinsic value falls(everyone is broke and can't pay rent) even in a hyperinflation setting you will still be able to realize some value from it.

 

i think his main point was that there will be war because that is how debt is restructured in the domino theory he presents according to history and investors should have things that preserve capital because a 50% haircut is better than being bald from a 100% haircut.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:48 | Link to Comment CashCowEquity
CashCowEquity's picture

lmfao !

Real Estate wont bottom until 2033

wtf are you smoking? Hopium?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:52 | Link to Comment Maximilien Robe...
Maximilien Robespierre's picture

Real estate won't bottom until abodes are taken by force involving no cash at all, but purely brute force physical strength (or weaponry).  THEN it will be the bottom.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment steveo
steveo's picture

There is a total lunar eclipse coming up.   They can be real good photo op's, sometimes turning blood red.   Whenever the sun or the moon goes away, triggers some very primordial instincts.    But Humans are above all that, RIGHT?     

 

 

 

Humans are perhaps the biggest of the "Pack Animals".   Humans are interesting because their ego requires them to see themselves as "above the animals".   Partly this is because when you have the intelligence to develop Relativity Physics, see into the DNA of ourselves, and yet spend 75% of all bandwidth on the internet watching porn, there is a conflict between reality and perception.    This is the start of insanity, the building up of little lies, snowballing into bigger lies to prevent having to face and admit reality.   One reader had expressed this as "Insane Hairless Monkeys".

 

Einsteen had it wrong.    He stated that insanity is doing the same action over and over and expecting different results.

 

That is not insanity, that is stupidity.  Insanity is a whole different thing.    Perhaps for Einstein his greatest fear would have been losing the ability to pee-conceive cause and effect relationships, and his second greatest fear was losing his mind, so he put them together as meaning the same thing.   

 

So it is funny to watch Humans pretending to be non-animals, "above all the animals".    It is funny to see humans denying that the moon or some sun spots could affect their behavior.    Ignorance and denial helps promulgate these series of little lies that help Humans see themselves above the animals as a matter of type, and not just a matter of degree.

 

Enjoy the moon, it is a gift.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:59 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

i agree that humans are the dumbest of all the animals having fooled ourselves into thinking that progress means moving further away from the source of food ny the invention of things and means that allow us to do so.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Maximilien Robe...
Maximilien Robespierre's picture

"The human capacity for self-deception knows no bounds"

 

And man do the banksters love it.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Hey asshole. The game ends when a 2,500/month rental payer @ 2 years struggles to meet first of month. When they are handing you their cosigned payroll check, eviction occurs. Perhaps you're a mouth breather that believes the 1% needs to take care of your lazy ass. If you need a place to stay, send me your references. BTW, I have a new renovation that's going for $3,000/ month.

Call me you broke fuck'o. Both houses are paid for & I have the deeds.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:31 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

apology accepted.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:00 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

apology accepted -- (No problem!)

I have property in Cape Coral (Water Front). I'll need to speak with the city first. Perhaps you can pop a tent for a week @ $1,500. Your source of food will be ocean fish. My long term goal is to build a home on property. If you want advice, buy property NOW. You will make a fortune later. :>)

I made 118% return on this cape coral investment from my purchase last year. How do I know? I just paid my taxes last month. Assessment spiked north. :P

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:16 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

it hasn't occurred to you that the things we have to do to put food on the table is pretty fn stupid?

 

already made a bet on real estate aquiring some property in a supposedly non existent no money down transaction. i was in ft. lauderdale during the volcker induced real estate crash. managed to get my grubstake out of it. good luck.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I paided cash. My secret, bait the banks for a 30 year loan. Then you raise your middle finger and pay it off in 30 days. Bankers hate me cuz it raises my fico score. Then you repeat the process again.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:34 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Are you kidding?  Who the fuck would want a prick like you as a landlord?

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Im not a prick, just want to help those who don't have a nice place live. LOL

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:03 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Both houses are paid for & I have the deeds.

Yet, should you not pay the property tax, which is whatever the government says it is, you will find out who really owns those houses.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:43 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I know exactly what your telling me. Until the bullets rain down on the US government corruption, I'm forced in compiling to property taxes.

I grew up with guns as a child. I have never felt the need to own one. I'm going to buy my first gun shortly. It will be used to protect my GF and her sons. Panther 7.62 NATO Mark 12. When Obama is kicked out of office, I will sell the gun.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:00 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Keep the gun.  Obama is not the problem.  The problem is the international banks and corporate fascists who own him.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 06:53 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Tuco, you lost me there. Obama and his ignorant minnions are the problem. The're as incompetant/delusional/corrupt as all the other leftist murdurous regimes that came before him and infected other nation/states.

As to buying/selling guns, it's like what was once said about the Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons, i.e.  the only thing worse than having nuclear weapons is having them and then giving them up. It's downright stupid:)

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Peter, yes the current admiinistration is corrupt but they are just lower level minions of the international banking corporate fascist cartel.  Good point regarding the Ukraine.  Take care.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:24 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

I don't spend 75% of my bandwidth watching porn!  anymore.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment nah
nah's picture

peak old economy

.

blah blah blah

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:12 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Ok, since I've been mucking around too much recently, here's some thoughts / serious analysis - and yes, this will be an epic post, close analysis. Heck, if you can't read these by now, you're not actually in finance - this one is for free:

#1 Woman in White [WiW]. This is a bench mark of "New World Order" politics. Go search around for the last Bilderberg meeting: here. Thus, Mr Bass is not a 'rogue element here'; he is a weapon / tool to translate issues to the silent majority who read this blog (serious traders). Market capture of Mr Bass has happened, most likely because he recognises that shit is going down. And a lifeboat is a good idea.

#2 Todd is ex-IMF. He mentions 2009, Japan, Sovereignty of the US, OWS. "Policy does matter". This is a direct appeal to authority, and the phrase "orderly adjustments rather than disorderly..." coupled with 'policy can bend outcomes" and "kicking can down the road" - translation: we know what is coming, and we're looking to go through it without self-imploding. Notice that the man can't stop fucking fidgeting constantly: the reason, most likely, is either too much coffee, or the loss of face of having the alternate Capital theory trump his own. Whichever it is, he is an irritant. Ends with a threat about asset managers going bust; Bass's balls are on the line.

#3 Bass: first point: psychology & politics now important than Capital quantitative analysis. Saviour based thinking, references Lehman. Bass kicks Todd in the IMF balls over promises and optics (through a lens darkly).

#4 8.23 back to Todd. Woman in white signals him. Globalisation -> better place, but the interim ("transition") could be really bad. Induce the fear and stick to garner illumination.

#5 Bass - states belief in Globalisation (yep, he just swore an oath to the NWO tinfoil hats ahoy), highlights problems in free trade. "Permanent job loss", "Fed just starting to get it".

#6 Todd - starts outlining economists' projection issues. 9:43 - all eyes to audience [bottom left], someone has been coughing / signalling something. Bass isn't engaging with Todd, he's looking at unidentified audience member. Projected growth to 2020...is a myth, but WiW & Bass are ignoring him, we need some graph porn for the traders.

#7 Bass - slides action, takes "stupidly large remote control" (LOL - 1970's spandex action). Possibly they were looking at projectionist for a cue, and a time point (thanks Greg!). (This is very stage managed btw). $80 trillion 2002 -> $210 trillion. 9 years, 12% growth in debt, GPD at 4%. Anything under 2.25% = lack of employment. "We can't afford to write down debt.... Bill is due today in Europe, Japan tomorrow, USA the day after".

#8 Todd continues to try and jest - 12:14 "In a very democratic way" (about Greece) - Oh, you jester you, joking about the GS coup! You wag! [someone kill this fucker now already]. Bass gets back on track about "what is debt". Sides with the ratings agencies (interesting, very interesting), 10% revenue on interest = maximum. Greece at... 4.4%, 2 yr money 100%, 10 yr 27%. Full write down. Troika owns 40% debt.

#9 WiW interjects 13:48 doing her job: define Troika for the Politicians watching this: they get confused by numbers. Bass: er, these are the guys who hold 40% of Greek debt. December 19th is Greek Omaha beach time.

#10 14:40 Todd snorts with derision at the notion that the banks will take a 50% write down. Starting to hate this twat, although he's off camera at least I can't see him twiddling (he reminds me of one of those kids at school who could never stop scratching his balls in public... ugh). Dec 19th - what happens to those who haven't signed up to the write-down deal? (At this point, I load up the Godfather II)

#11 15:10 Two strange acoustics.

#12 Todd takes the cue, belittles the people "in the minority" (a "scary place being in the minority") that aren't taking the deal. Pressure, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice!

#13 15:45 Bass: "Look, this is all a joke". I like this guy.

#14 Todd 16:02 EU - China link, pushing BRIC economic stage play into IMF / G7 (er, dude.. so last century, its the G20 now... and its been the G8 for how long?). Note: eyes bottom left again, not pitching to anyone but that sweet spot in the audience.

#15 Bass "No disrespect to you Todd"... Hmm, please just punch him now. $350 billion BRIC -> EU takes USA veto away. Ding, ding, ding! 17:00 Bass laying down the Keynesian history (approved, K + White for UK/USA). 18:16 Keynesian economics solves small issues for small countries, doesn't work for medium sized countries, and quotes former IMF chief to back his point up. 18:40 "Turns out White was a Russian spy". 19:01 - look to WiW just to show he's totally fucking nailed Todd. WiW makes a face, isn't amused her monkey is getting played - look at that pursed mouth as we reference "Greg" again.... WiW "But I like that other slide, about how leverage has shifted". OOOH, Good boy Bass, you got her irked. 19:48 "Every prior time this has happened has been two sides going into conflict" (i.e. war). "You talk about the social fabric being ruffled... it may be torn".

#16 Todd "But what does that mean". I need a spade now. And maybe some gasoline. 20:19 WiW puts Todd down for being a coward. Todd lays it on thick to bring it back into the housing debate and mundane shit so the audience can relate and not stampede the door.

#17 Bass. 20:45 boring shit, trillion back-stop. 22:17 "We have a spending problem" (OH RLY?) 26% GDP spent, 16% incoming / annum. 22:47 "Anyone in here read the CBO report?... No-one... that's interesting". Translation: OH FUCK, YOU'RE ALL SHEEPLE, WAY TO GO WiW!". References his wife and being boring while looking at Todd. I'm guessing his wife is actually a smart human bean, and he's just calling Todd a bitch for the shits n giggles. It got an audience laugh (female tone), but we're not sure if that's true cynicism or baa-baaing. 23:06 Makes the point that USA gov "HAS to pay" various social costs [unvoiced rider: otherwise your civilisation goes up in smoke / genocide]. Three buckets: 1 (social) is 100% revenue - the other two are deficits. (Defense / non-defense discretionary), 1st one is growing by 10% a yr.

#18 Getting bored now, real insight getting bogged down. Europe says USA has much worse problems (essentially true). 24:54 "We've recapped our banking system".... and there's the hit. Bullshit alarms hitting now. Recapping - UK has done it (Um.. "Okay") but Europe didn't. "Europe banks are three times as leveraged as US banks are". And... there's the entire point of this, and it is total bullshit. "This will sink Europe before it sinks the US".

#19 More Todd bullshit: 27:32 Bass throws an amused look when asked how to fix the US housing market to [bottom left] with a smile that says "You can't.".

#20 Bass realising he has to push shit, engaging with WiW, hits "Black Swan of Cairo" at 29:25. 30:49 "Dominoes" in regards to Greece, when WiW has over-ruled Todd and asked about Greece. 31:34 Japan "A third of people will lose their savings". Bass has dumped Todd completely, and is now 100% focused on WiW and making an appeal to sanity. 32:20 "Its more about the social fabric of the world". 33:00 "If you take all the bad assets and put them on the public sheet earnings will look good". WiW laughs. A hit.

 

 

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:16 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

interesting analysis. for the record, what is the elephant in the room mentioned in your pre edit post.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:41 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Aff!

Not your fault, but I'm on a really third world connection atm (about 80 k/s) so have been watching the stream as it loads, and commenting as I get the next part ~ so it was a running thing, You posting means I can't edit the post to make it continuous. I don't think that slow, I was being hampered by the speed of the video!

Elephant in the room was leveraged US bank exposure to EU debt - Bass is claiming that "all US banks are recapped" and it only cost about $880 billion. ZH, and myself, doubt this very much.

 

 

#23 Bass 41:25 States, essentially, that if EU + Japan crash, US is safe short / medium term. I happen to think he's ignoring three major players, but meh. 41:31 Pushes cash holding.41:37 pushing physical assets (oil / real estate)

#24 WiW hits it home 41:59 putting the field to gold. She ain't a light-weight, remember point #1!

#25 Bass admits that 4% pull on Comex delivery for physical gold will break it. 43:57 "Gold is a fractional reserve". Prior point about physical storage being higgly-piggly.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:42 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

yes, and it is a big elephant. bass referred to todd's wish for a soft landing a few times as a sort of dream exercise. i think you are correct that bass is the canary in the coal mine warning of impending doom. it was interesting that i thought he threw out the 3-5 year projection with little conviction as i perceived him to believe it is much more imminent . i don't think he really believes how bad things are(how can it be sustainable for another moment) or how bad it will get in the correction phase(huge capacity destruction including lots of dead people). he threw it off with a line about a lot of people losing a lot of money being all it will be.

 

with regard to the elephant, what went unsaid is that the euro implosion will take down the usa which is why it follows the eurozone.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:49 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Yeah, and you've done it again.

Read the damn post: Bass stated (and I reported) that in his mind, EU / Japan gives the US a breathing space as they unwind (flight to reserve etc).

 

More importantly, you've kinda ignored what I was attempting to do. I've 20 mins left to comment on, and now... instead of having it in two broken posts, I do three?

 

 

Nice cock-blocking there champ. Much easier to just junk and type "STFU noob". If you didn't want the commentary, just fucking say so. Otherwise, you're guilty of not understanding how ZH posts work.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:10 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

i apologize for frustrating you. never responded to a real time post such as yours. it doesn't help that it is so fn slow. seems worthwhile. proceed.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

No worries. It was very late, 2 bottles of wine and a connection that makes 1991 look fast.

 

Good questions though.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:30 | Link to Comment merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

I read your 20 points, but why did you stop midway through?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:36 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

.

Double.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:42 | Link to Comment G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Very nice interview...Thank You Tyler.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

ZH runs a sensible policy that if some-one replies to a post, you can't edit it.

I was doing it real time (i.e. Watch > Post > Watch) with extreme bandwidth constraints.

 

You were getting real time analysis second to second, not a structured report.

 

[edit: some over-eager beaver cock-blocked me. I was doing it in real time on a shitty connection ~~ CBA now.]

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:54 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Use of Weapons you are truly amazing.  Thank you for your efforts.  My eyes rolled when the IMF was called a great organization.  Shit!

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 06:49 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

'Use of Stupid' never disappoints.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 01:13 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Happy to oblige.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:49 | Link to Comment Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

You have far too much time on your hands.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:30 | Link to Comment merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Thanks Kyle Bass for your insight, and thanks ZH for the post.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:27 | Link to Comment Flocking swans
Flocking swans's picture

...and as the host said: Thanks for coming Kyle, "hope there will be next year to come back to...."

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:24 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1xHRKlWKCo

 MUST'VE BEEN SOMETHING YOU SAID   .      

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v4OydaJMQM

 

THE OTHER LINK GOT DELETED. OOPS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:46 | Link to Comment indio007
indio007's picture

I think he's wrong about the housing market and probably the insurance companies if they offer title insurance.

That market is about to get turned inside out.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

i agree, but that might have been something he said purely based on his positions.

 

*edit:  as UoW points out above, there is a fair amount of hedging against hedges in this piece.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Flocking swans
Flocking swans's picture

"...Thanks...Gimme the gold"

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:05 | Link to Comment dollarcoaster
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment dollarcoaster
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:22 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

he talks about japan.  imho, japan is doomed  unless they can get a handle on fukushima  and i don't mean yesterday either.   they say, that japan now, is totally dusted with cessium, all over the island, and not just in some areas........

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:31 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Japan has clearly not printed enough money.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:48 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Buy, store and consume PDZ zeolite.  It may save the lives of you and your family!

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

A lot of crap posted here. Here is some discrete data for those of us ....never mind. it doesn't matter...the balloon has gone up.

.223 is still fine. Zing zing through the Kevlar I say

Half your firewood and half your hay should still be extant on Candlemas day.

 

Break Break Ack

 

Time to get crackin' gramma says....

 

 

 

 

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:33 | Link to Comment Maximilien Robe...
Maximilien Robespierre's picture
The Meaning Of  "Break"

The word "Break" has several different and very specific meanings in amateur radio.  Break should never be used when you simply want to join a conversation in progress.  Use your call sign for that.  The use of the word break can be used to terminate a message with one station and start a message to another during the same transmission.  Example:   "WB6XYZ, message received.  BREAK.  WB6WLV, have you arrived at your office yet?”

 Break can be utilized to interrupt an ongoing conversation with traffic of a higher priority.  The frequency should be released immediately to the station calling break.  You should transmit "Station calling break go ahead with your priority traffic."  You must not simply say "I acknowledge the break," then finish your conversation before relinquishing the frequency.

 The most critical use of break is when someone calls "break, break, break" or "break emergency".  This indicates emergency traffic.  All other stations must release the frequency immediately and stand by to assist if necessary. 

 Tactfully educate those who use ‘break” in an improper manner.

http://www.qsl.net/sandra/sandraops.htm


 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:45 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Copy that.  Out.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:43 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Remember what Solzhenitsyn said:
"And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the down-stairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of a half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand? ... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt.
If .... if... We didn't love freedom enough. And even more - we had no awareness of the real situation... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward."

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:23 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

A poignant quote, Tuco Benedicto.  Many Americans, the same as Solzhenitsyn's Russians, may not “love freedom enough” to fight for it, but, unlike his Russians, they certainly have an “awareness of the real situation.”

Can it be that Zero Hedge is going to be the deal breaker for the NWO, in that an informed populace is freedom's greatest weapon! What Solzhenitsyn could and would have done with the Internet, ZH is doing. Remember Boazizi, remember the Tunisia uprising, remember the Arab Spring, think OWS and the breakthrough for Ron Paul… The power of one Internet fight club can and is changing the world. I know it to be true!

May there be many more…  

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 06:31 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Yep. That's the way it was. And how often has history repeated itself. From the Bolshevik Revolution, through the Cultural Revolution to the PolPot killing fields. The root cause is always man, thinking that he has figured it all out, decides that the thing standing between reality and utopia is 6 million uneducated kulaks, or 70 million backward peasants. But as history teaches us, he ends up in a much place that that which he started out from.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:30 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Kyle is such a negative nellie.  Remember, the Fed has your back.  There is no need in this free money environment for risk management, due diligence, or old-fashioned strategies like value investing, etc.  Risk on.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 00:39 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

a bunch of white people talking about immigration policies like what they are saying will make any difference. immigration is allowed for one reason. to destroy white western european culture and to fragment it and make it weaker because diversity does not strengthen a nation but destroy it. 

http://www.realzionistnews.com/?p=611

 

there is a master plan to all of this. it is happening for a reason and a purpose. 

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:42 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Nice to listen to this red piller again T. D.  Thank you.  What a shock.  The COMEX initially resisted his firm's audit and COMEX is fractionalized 40-1.  COMEX hucksters say that "price" will solve gold fractionalization problem.  Sorry, gang, but that can't happen when the freakin gold prices are manipulated and suppressed!  Day of reckoning ahead for the COMEX, just a matter of when.

Own physical gold and silver.  Keep it "cool, dry and nearby".  Let some other poor bastard hold the paper when COMEX defaults!

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:57 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

realzionistnews is an operation.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:26 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

wanna meet in person? :)  

 

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:43 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

Madman's Coup--a play which gives declarer an unexpected trick, but which is designed to lead declarer away from a successful plan.

 

 

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 01:57 | Link to Comment MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Kyle Bass is clearly a NWO sceptic.

 

The problem with Kyle Bass' analysis is that he still has faith in the system.  He believes the system has rules that are inviolable.  He believes the truth is in the numbers.  He can't move past the perspective of a well trained analyst whose livelihood depends on the soundness of the system.  After all, how could he continue doing what he does if he believed the system was a fraudulent artificial construct?

 

The reality is that this global financial system was created by and for a very small group of men and their families.  It is an artificial construct manipulated at will by the men who control it.  There are no rules that they cannot change.  The "numbers" and "rules" did not indicate the markets were due for a 7% rally this week, did they?  No, but the men who control the system decided to take action and make that happen.  There was no way to foresee such a rally because it violated all the rules and all the numbers.  But it's their game to change on a whim.  And they do.

 

That is why the inflationary scenario is the most likely outcome.  They will simply manipulate the system upwards, maintaining relative levels of parity with the old levels of debt (consumer debt, sovereign debt will be brought down to manageable levels), income, money supply, etc.  Or maybe they won't.  That's the point, it's their game and it obeys only their will, not some meaningless data set or supposed "rules."

 

This artificial game is being manipulated to achieve political goals.  The pain being inflicted on Europe will continue until they bow to the will of the NWO and give up ALL of their national sovereignty and accept a European central treasury with the power to tax and spend on the behalf of the entire E.U.  The supposed chaos you see today is engineered to break the will of the European people.  The beatings will continue until morale improves, as the saying goes.

 

What you see is not the loss of control by the powers that be.  It is not a fundamental failing of the system.  What you see in the world today is the growing pains of the New World Order.  Destroying national sovereignty, beating radical Islam into something compatible with modernity, integrating Arab Muslims into Western society (via massive immigration to all Western nations), etc.  All accoring to plan.

 

Welcome to the New World Order.  A boot stamping on a human face, forever.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:39 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet outlined the process in his recent speech in Aachen, Germany, calling for an international banker dictatorship over Europe, beginning with the takeover of floundering nations :  “One way this could be imagined is for European authorities to have the right to veto some national economic policy decisions. The remit could include in particular major fiscal spending items and elements essential for the country’s competitiveness.” …

Once there is veto power over a parliament, of course, that’s the end of that parliament.  Nothing can go through without higher approval.

 Asks Trichet: “In this Union of tomorrow, or of the day after tomorrow, would it be too bold, in the economic field, with a single market, a single currency and a single central bank, to envisage a ministry of finance of the Union?”

Richard N. Cooper, Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission, wrote in the Fall 1984 issue of Foreign Affairs in “A Monetary System for the Future” :

"Much of the discomfort relates to the large and burdensome external debt that has accumulated around the world…. The key point is that monetary control – the issuance of currency and of reserve credit – would be in the hands of a new bank of issue, not in the hands of any national government…. But a single currency is possible only if there is in effect a single monetary policy, and a single authority issuing currency and directing monetary policy. How can independent states accomplish that? They need to turn over the determination of monetary policy to a supranational body…”

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:08 | Link to Comment MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Yet if you mention any of this to the sheeple they write you off as an insane conspiracy theorist.  They believe the shallow lies that are put up for them in the main stream media.  Never mind that you can pull up quotes and facts that demonstrate this is all going according to decades old plans.  No, they believe the powers that be have "lost control."  No knowledge of history to put current events in context.

 

The dumbest of them actually believe the E.U. will break up.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  The new world order will NEVER allow the European Union to break up.  It is simply an impossibility.  Now if only I knew how to place that bet in the markets...

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:53 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

I was in an In-N-Out fast food restaurant early one evening this week, and at every booth and most of the tables nearly everyone was reading an iPhone, from two young boys to several thirty somethings to a middle-aged woman. It was as quiet as a tomb. I kid you not. The Establishment MSM is losing its power, going the way of the dodo bird. The herd is diversifying, selecting the news it wants, not what it is force fed…

This is exciting news, a political game changer… Watch Google try to harness it, but it can’t be done. America has just begun to fight, IMO. Also, IMO, the E.U. already is cracking, already is a basket case. Either way, we’re on the same team; someone as informed as yourself is worth nine of those who aren’t. With those odds, it may be a hard fight but we can win. With determination, we WILL win. Because we must.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Retain a proper silver:lead:gold ratio and lay low.  That's the best bet to place at this time in history!

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 16:10 | Link to Comment MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

It's far too late for me to lay low.  My only choice is to leave the country and hope that the level of information sharing between the U.S. and my new home is minimal.

 

For the rest of you trying to "lay low", I hope you're only accessing Zero Hedge and similar "alternative media sites" via foreign VPN connections or TOR.  If not...well, I've got news for you - you ain't laying so low as you think.  Other than maintaining a minimal telecommunications profile, you obviously need to stay out of legal trouble and keep your dealings with the government to a minimal level.  You should present the appearance of being just another sheep.  No credit card purchases of large amounts of ammo or survival supplies.  Etc.  The electronic paper trail needs to indicate that you're just an average Bud Light drinking NFL watching sheep.

 

In the age of permanent secret database shared with every law enforcement agency in the country, once you're on the radar there is no way to ever get off it.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:18 | Link to Comment M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

If you think that's alarming, google for "Rodrik's trilemma".

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:00 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

gay

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:03 | Link to Comment props2009
props2009's picture

C3X FX portfolio performance for November with every trade call details

http://capital3x.com/trades/performance-full-month-of-november/

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:17 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

His part about on taking physical delivery of gold is great... about 42 minutes into the video.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:19 | Link to Comment madbomber
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:29 | Link to Comment madbomber
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:39 | Link to Comment Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Is anyone else creeped out by the phrase, "The globalization of housing finance"?

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:42 | Link to Comment alagon
alagon's picture

"The financial elites of this country, notably the Morgan, Rockefeller, and Kuhn, Loeb interests, were responsible for putting through the Federal Reserve System as a governmentally created and sanctioned cartel device to enable the nation's banks to inflate the money supply in a coordinated fashion, without suffering quick retribution from depositors or noteholders demanding cash.

Recent researchers, however, have also highlighted the vital supporting role of the growing number of technocratic experts and academics, who were happy to lend the patina of their allegedly scientific expertise to the elite's drive for a central bank. To achieve a regime of big government and government control, power elites cannot achieve their goal of privilege through statism without the vital legitimizing support of the supposedly disinterested experts and the professoriate. To achieve the Leviathan State, interests seeking special privilege and intellectuals offering scholarship and ideology must work hand in hand."  -Rothbard

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:44 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

GEEEEEEUUH NIGGGAZZZZ

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:52 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

This guy is phucking smart. He should be the chairman of the FED, as long as we don't really end the FED.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 02:55 | Link to Comment Mamzer Ben Zonah
Mamzer Ben Zonah's picture

Excellent.  More Kyle Bass please.

Here's his bio, for those interested:

J Kyle Bass, Portfolio Manager: Mr. Bass is the managing member and principal of Hayman Advisors LP’s general partner which was formed in December 2005. Hayman Advisors LP serves as the investment manager to the Hayman Capital Master Fund LP; Hayman Advisors is also a member of Hayman Municipal Strategies LLC and Hayman Woods LLC.

Prior to forming Hayman Advisors, Mr. Bass worked at Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. for 6 years where, at age 28, he became one of the youngest Senior Managing Directors in the firm’s history.

In 2001 Mr. Bass left Bear, Stearns & Co. and joined Legg Mason, Inc. where he worked as a Managing Director for four years before leaving to form Hayman Advisors.

Mr. Bass was also a managing member of the general partner of Subprime Credit Strategies Fund, LP and Subprime Credit Strategies Fund II, LP, and is a Director of the ABS Credit Derivatives Users Association Inc. and a founding member of the Serengeti Asset Management Advisory Board. In September 2007, Mr. Bass testified as an expert witness before the House of Representatives Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee. In November 2007, Mr. Bass spoke on a panel co-sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research and the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association concerning the rating agency system.

Mr. Bass graduated with honors with a Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance and Real Estate Finance from Texas Christian University in May 1992. He attended TCU on a Division I scholarship for academic achievement and diving.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:07 | Link to Comment madbomber
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:08 | Link to Comment Below Zero
Below Zero's picture

What's with the continuing "NiKyle" Bass the nickel baron worship here? Yes he is right on some things but this is ridiculous. Is some money involved?

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 04:26 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

He seems popular.

Ya jealous?

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:40 | Link to Comment terryfuckwit
terryfuckwit's picture

what would life be like in a country where banks are kept in their place ask the Swedish

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/swedish-bonds-safer-than-german...

then keep on asking asking learning and learning and asking and learning...

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:47 | Link to Comment thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

With all due respect, should they ever convene again; turn up the volume, get some comfortable chairs, a working projector and cue screen, stage left.

Muffle the gonzo-ex-IMF, lose the lady in white, a get a frickin interviewer that knows what's going on....May I suggest a certain Journalist/author named Lewis. 

Pearls before swine in a pythons' gut... so the worm turns.

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:52 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

" Maybe he should ask Tim Geithner....he's been pretty good so far...:

This was the funiest line I've heard in a long while, I laughed so hard my kid came in to ask what I was watching...

Kyle Bass is my new hero, he sees the picture as clearly as anyone I follow and articulates it with clarity and even humor. I'll be up for a while tracking down more of his interviews.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 04:57 | Link to Comment Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

I loved his "give a shit factor" when referring to the relationship  between prudence in lending and personal liability of directors in the Swiss private banking sector :)

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 05:21 | Link to Comment forrestdweller
forrestdweller's picture

we're rednecks, and we don't know our ass from a hole in the ground....

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 05:22 | Link to Comment steveo
steveo's picture

This guy recently passed on.   He lived through the Bataan Death March.    

 

Interestingly, in 1942, there was a rare "single bottom" rally in the stock market, which coincidentally occured in the midst of massive bad news, like the Bataan Death March.    Also, for the US, a bit of good news, the Doolittle raid also occurred at that time.    It seems like 2009 also had a single bottom, these are unusual.   Many bears in 2009 assumed that the more likely double bottom would occur.    Instead the market went on to a 100% rally, leaving bears crushed in the dust, yearning for the excitement of the huge earnings they had just experienced.

 

Here is a timeline I did a while back, seems very topical now, with the passing of Mr. Albert Brown.

 

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/12/history-in-making-bataan-death-m...

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 07:41 | Link to Comment madbomber
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Yogaman
Yogaman's picture

What's the investment Kyle recommended everyone put 3-5% into?  he mentions it at 51:30 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 08:14 | Link to Comment Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

Do they really think when this is over the consumer is going to buy, buy buy?

"Oops, for the last 6 years, little problem with the system..PhD's of Central Banks figured it all out....over now...don't worry..the guys in charge are still the same and please drive to the mall now to purchase your goodies made in China"

Al Qaeda..Al Qaeda..please come in...over...(click)...open invitation from a fucked up system..(click)...time to finish the job...over (click)...please advise ETA..over (click..zzzz)

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 08:47 | Link to Comment SirPlayomic
SirPlayomic's picture

duplicate

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 08:46 | Link to Comment SirPlayomic
SirPlayomic's picture

Just watched the whole video... I really like Kyle Bass' style, he doesn't suffer fools and his understanding is far deeper than the two suits he shares the stage with - he makes them look totally lost in comparision.

Off topic - Pink's Dear Mr President is currently playing on the radio, it was written for Bush but it fits just as well for Obummer. Does that song get any radio time in the USA?

www.greedion.com

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Zap Brannigan
Zap Brannigan's picture

Admittedly, I have no data to back this view, but I'm not sure if I can go along with a 3-5 year buffer, where the US can watch and learn from Europe/Japan's mistakes. As Use of Weapons mentioned earlier, levered exposure to Europe will be felt across the pond. Look what little old Lehman did to the world; does Bass think that while the WHOLE European banking system blows up we'll find religion and reverse course?

 

Also, I don't know if it was the timing of this post or what, but this has been the crappiest set of comments I've ever encountered on Zerohedge. If I wanted to read about conspiracy theories I'd be on Alex Jones' site.

 

EDIT: Tyler, be a dear and don't put anything related to "New World Order" in titles anymore, it brings all the nutties out of the woodwork

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I think you have been "zapped" by the blue pills you have been taking.  Some people, like you, "can't handle the truth"!  Drink your fluoride, eat your GMO, breathe in the chemtrails and take your vaccinations good little boot licking slave.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment goldstandard
goldstandard's picture

Unless the lemmings rise up against the machine, this will not end well for most. The following interview with Ann Barnhardt regarding the MF Global cluster fuck along with the rot and corruption in government and law enforcement is amazing. She doesn't hold back and this 30 minute interview with Jim Puplava is worth your consideration. I just couldn't believe or perhaps didn't want to believe that our financial system is literally a house of cards hiding behind a veil of integrity and a corrupt system of croney capitalism. Makes you wonder how Harry Reid went from a six figure income to over eight in a short period of time.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011...

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

 

Of course there is a backstop.  The IRS at gunpoint forces you to pay for international shenanigans.  As property of the corporation, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, you will now be referred to as Chump.

Dear Chump, should you feel any empathy towards your counterparts in foreign lands (foreign born mindless slaves) whose children die at a faster rate than you, remember, you work very hard so that these children can be bombed.  The mere fact that your sons and daughters are dying a slower rate must fill you with immense pride.  It should be explicitly noted the criminality of thinking otherwise (a traitor's position).  Never mind the constant betrayal of the nation's sovereignty by <gracious leader>.  You are the guilty party, dear chump. 

Prepare yourself for indefinite incarceration, possibly a trip to an island in the Carribean, since utmost compliance is required, anything else makes you enemy of the state.  Be thankful you haven't been assasinated by a drone, dear property.

Vote two legged pig in the coming sham elections!!! 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 10:46 | Link to Comment ItsMedicationTime
ItsMedicationTime's picture

Ok.Ok...........I think I've got it......Forget the who is or who would be a good  President to save the US.........Honestly the job has no power it's Congress and the Senate that have the check book and penn's the legislation.........Let me correct that it's actually the Washington Lobbyist Cartel that penn's the legislation that takes our freedoms away along with our money and wealth..........What the citizens of the US must do is start a private fund to purchase or obtain the powerfull Washington lobbyist cartel...........This way "We The People" will be able have a voice in the Washington power house or food chain........first on the list, is have our new lobbyist penn a law to get our rights back that used to be guaranteed under the Constitution...........Second on the list is to purchace or penn legislation through our new lobbyist group is to get our US industry back........and so and so forth......I think at thsi point Zero Hedge should be entrusted with the new US Citizens Lobbyist Fund.......

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment anomalous
Sat, 12/03/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Nice try but we would be competing against the international banking cartel which can create money out of thin air.  Your fund would do nothing but make true Americans poorer, faster.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment sudzee
sudzee's picture

Did the CME get a margin call and needed cash so raised customer margins? Seems like a possibility to me. Wondered where the money was coming from to buy soverign bonds.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 21:06 | Link to Comment DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

I sure wonder who he thinks is possibly going to war as a result of all this...he alluded to having an opinion on the matter but declined to say.  Hmmmm?

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 10:50 | Link to Comment gs_runsthiscountry
gs_runsthiscountry's picture

I had to chuckle at the 24 min mark. Kyle hits the nail on the head...subtly.The idea the super-committee failed is a joke IMHO. It was the end goal. We got automatic cuts and every politician got to wash their hands of any responsibility. "whoops...sorry....we could not come to an agreement." "quick, everyone point fingers and confuse the electorate; hence, salvage votes and campaign funding."

Brilliant

Maybe we need more of these "deadlines" carved out in stone, and thus, expiries that involve major policy moves.

Next up, carve out policy moves on healthcare and education, create a super-committee, set a deadline and let it lapse. "whoops...sorry....we could not come to an agreement." damn those automatic triggers..."quick, everyone point fingers and confuse the electorate; hence, salvage votes and campaign funding."

gs_

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Tree of Liberty
Tree of Liberty's picture

Funny Kyle thinks this US Ponzi can continue for 36 more months; not Possible!  He is definitely right about war, primarily the WW3 Albert Pike version to be exact.  Prepare as Kyle has a contingency bunker already - get your own; Guns, Food/Water, Silver and Gold in your possesion. 

 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Many responses on this thread have attempted to pin him on an exact date.

I believe I heard him say in this video: "don't hold me to this" as a preface to his calling a date.

Again he is correct. No one can predict a date. It is fools folly to think that it is possible to pick a date. I believe that is why he said "don't hold me to this".

Jus sayin.

But I agree 100% in your statement "get your own; Guns, Food/Water, Silver and Gold in your possesion.".

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

-- Moved post to Portugal thread.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment calgal
calgal's picture

Ok some of this is an anti homo rant which i dont agree with, but its more about the insanity of these sick fux who are running our economic systems

About Keynes

http://chasvoice.blogspot.com/2011/11/john-maynard-keynes-bolshevik-lave...

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 19:48 | Link to Comment MountainGreenhouse
MountainGreenhouse's picture

Does anyone know the requirements for investing in Hayman Capital (Mr. Bass' hedge fund)  Or do you know any websites that track his purchases and sales in a timely fashion?

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment MountainGreenhouse
MountainGreenhouse's picture

I figured out that there is a 5million dollar minimum investment to invest in Hayman Capital.  I however have not found any blogs or websites tracking their purchases and sales yet. 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 20:57 | Link to Comment halflink123
halflink123's picture

For the first time, I find myself strongly disagreeing w/ Kyle Bass, i.e.:

1) Housing has "bottomed" (<10% decline left to go).  Prices are still way, way too high.  Perhaps those other 43 housing crashes did NOT involve a stimulative central bank and record low mortgage rates and government bond yields POST bubble.  If you look at face value prices (ignoring below market monthly mortgage payments thanks to a bankrupt government's gauranteeing the mortgage market), they are still way, way too high relative to income.  In my area where I live, prices for the average house are still 6-10 times 1 person's median income.  Very very high still.

2) Unemployment is high because of China.  No unemployment is high because the U.S. is bankrupt and there has not been a liquidation of debt.

3) Echoes are buying houses. WTF? Echoes are NINJAS, unemployed and bankrupt.  Maybe all the echoes he knows are Harvard MBAs working for hedge funds?  Not the real world, though Kyle.

 

I guess this is the danger with having so so much money...you lose all touch with reality.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!