Kyle Bass Explains The New World Order - Panel Presentation

Tyler Durden's picture

Unlike the broad consensus of prognosticators who feel the road for the US is a decade or more, Bass sees a three-to-five year window for a credible solution to the debt saturation or else kicking the can will cease to have any impact. The reason for the proximity is the acceleration of what happens in Europe and Japan with that respective chronology his central view - which he sees a s critical in understanding for every money manager.

In this extended interview at AmeriCatalyst, he points to the optimistic self-deception biases that leave people unable to comprehend the scenarios as they either lead to a really bad outcome or a nominally bad outcome. Using the Lehman moment as an example, Bass explains how we have been conditioned to believe there is always a backstop or those backstops at a corporate and sovereign level (central banks and the IMF for example) are being called into question in their roles (being seen for what they are - as just promises) and it is the chasm between what we want to believe and what does happen that is enormous and leaves the extreme volatility, risk-on/risk-off market the way it is.

Reiterating how critical the psychology of today's situation, Bass goes on to debunk the optimism of globalization (at least for the Western world), destroy the myth of a 50% greek writedown solution, Japanese xenophobia and savings losses, structural versus cyclical implications for US equity deterioration, US deficits and housing's bottom, global debt saturation and how this tearing at the social fabric of the world will lead to - war.

Click image for video (no embed available)

This extended interview includes some of the following views (among many others):

On Greece:

For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.

On the IMF and its role as global savior

He discusses in some detail Keynes and the IMF formation and the new world order he foresees as our era of the largest peacetime accumulation of global debt has no precedent (as it has historically ended in conflict or been created by conflict).

And how this debt saturation will inebitably play out:

Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war.

And summarizing for every long-only talking head pitch-man:

This is not a cyclical rebound from a crisis we had two years and you should NOT be buying stocks because a P/E ratio is low relative to historical S&P behavior because the E is wrong. We are going to see declines and people don't know how to position themselves for declines. We are at peak earnings now! Earnings only look good because if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet.

We need to delever globally. We haven't delevered. Just now we are seeing marginal delevering in Europe and all hell is breaking loose. An summing up:

Consensus is US low/slow GDP growth - no recession, US better than Europe, Europe mild recession, muddle through, go all in to Emerging markets as that's where the convexity is.


The consensus is never going to be right.


I don't get paid to be an optimist or a pessimist. I get paid to be a realist and the realist negative currently.


Don't believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.

(h/t EnnuiHenry)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

taxes are a disincentive to work

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Wife just lost her job and I have told her to stay home and be, heaven forbid, a mother for once.  Quite frankly, she was doing nothing more than pushing me up to the tax bracket ladder. 

lemonobrien's picture

i did that; bitch has problems being bored. They trained the women to be men; and to be jealous of men. they totally forgotten how to be women.


Maximilien Robespierre's picture

The Matrix needed more batteries.  

GMadScientist's picture

And you've forgotten how to be a decent human being, but I guess she was dumb enough to marry you so thats her own fault.

PsychicWebbah's picture

Jordan, you fucking idiot. Do you understand what truly separates a country like the US from 3rd world nations like Zimbabwe and Haiti? No you don't.

Access to credit. If you destroy ALL the banks and credit unions by "walking away from your obligations" then nothing in this country gets built, nothing gets done. 

No one made you buy that SUV, charge up all those credit cards, take out that mortgage on that hyperinflated house. You chose to fuck yourself in the ass. So now instead of owning up for your idiocy you want the country to collapse. 

Don't mistake what I am saying for giving big banks bailouts. Absolutely not, but the rest of responsible civilization should not be sodomized by your own ineptitude and victimized by your dream of an OWS "communist utopia."

These community college dropout level posters are just ridiculous. Enjoy your BK double stacker and new episode of Hoarders.

CH1's picture

So, Credit is our savior?

Shouldn't we be utterly, overwhelmingly, amazingly saved by now?


PsychicWebbah's picture

Credit has allowed you to buy a house, a car, that 1080p HD widescreen, and probably most everything else you own. Compare your standard of living to that of a Haitian. Ever been to a slum in Lima? I have. Those people can't get credit. Do you envy them?

What happened to the socialist utopia of the CCCP? You couldn't get credit there either, but then you couldn't buy anything but a Lada so you didn't need credit. You lived in your small box apartment and that was life.

Access to credit is your savior from becoming impoverished like they are/were. You really think they are better off with no access to credit than you are?

kridkrid's picture

They've done a number on you.  You need to de-program.  You actually scare me.

ZeroPower's picture

Typical rebuttal from one who enjoys the fruits of capitalism yet claims he's 'against the matrix' and better than that, etc.

Oh educate us, wise one, on how one de-programs.

GMadScientist's picture

In the case of PsychicWebbedToes (and his opponents), by realizing that credit is a tool which is neither good nor bad, but can be put to very bad uses (like financing a Maserati, or sending tens of thousands of troops to the desert) or to good uses (investing in learning a new skill that makes someone more job-marketable, for example).

One must at all times remember that the banks are like a paralyzed vampire which can only bleed you dry if you're dumb enough lean over it with your neck exposed.


One might also point out to Webbah the bank owns the house, the houses get less affordable when people spend imaginary money, and credit comes with interest. I'm not sure I'd view paying twice as much as something costs over the long run as a service. Credit can provide the grease to keep money velocity up or the bubbles that bring a depression.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Credit also has allowed the average middle-class home to rocket from $12,000 in 1960 to over $200,000 back in the bubble days of the middle of the last decade.

When I was a young-un in the early 1970s, you could take $2,000 to a dealership and drive home a new vehicle without going into any debt at all.

Thanks to credit, that $2,000 won't even buy you a half-decent used vehicle.

And credit has allowed the average student loan debt to soar to un-Earthly levels.

To whom should I send the note of thanks I have here lying on my desk?

PsychicWebbah's picture

Barney Frank might be a good place to start sending those Christmas cards and thank you notes.

FEDbuster's picture

And "government" backed credit is the worst.  Student loans, housing, etc...  Ron Paul has been making the point that anything the government gets involved in through credit or reimbursment becomes more expensive.  Funny money debt and access to the printing presses has a way of doing that.

BoNeSxxx's picture

Except for the fact that the average salary in 1970 was about $5,000/year.

If he was rolling into dealerships with rolls of $2,000, he was LOADED (in relative terms)

Schmoo's picture

Priced in ounces of gold, that $2000 car would have been ~ 20 oz.

20 oz of gold today ~ $35,000, which will still buy you a new car without debt.

"Thanks to credit, that $2,000 won't even buy you a half-decent used vehicle."

Risk-adjusted credit isn't the problem; problem is over-leverage and massive printing

Jordan Kanter's picture

You are clearly a thoughtless moron, sir.  Made evident by your assumptions and presumptions to "know" about the situation of the folks you are responding to - you assume that everyone with a worldview that differs from your own meets some description of your straw-man irresposible person.  Myopic.  Grow up, intellectually, sir.  

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Only reason credit is needed to get the house is because of government intervention in forcing inflation into these markets, through wonderful regulations, and inflating the price of housing quicker than the rise in income -

Fuck the Federal Reserve, Fuck the Federal Government, and FUCK YOU AND YOUR HORSE YOU RODE IN ON.

Kayman's picture

Credit used to be based on Savings.

Now Credit is a conjuring process.  Banks conjure up credit (credit creation) with a keystroke since capital can be leveraged to infinity.

And the Feds conjure up credit electronically and by physical printing; essentially allowing you to consume today and saddle the next generation with the bill.

Well, the bill has come due and the next generation has told us to all "Fuck Off"

Credit- the Crack Cocaine of the something for nothing crowd.

philipdybel's picture

Psychic Webelo is 110% CORRECT!!!  Everyone needs to understand that we are now in the midst of an Epic Crisis of Worldwide Proportions;  and today's Epic Crisis of Worldwide Proportions will be solved the same way we solved the last one (911) -- President Chimpy told everyone to go shopping, and we DID!  So if you don't like doing what our President says to get us out of this Crisis, then go live somewhere else -- and good luck shopping in Zimbabwe!

jonan's picture

wow dude, someone here must have a shitty personal balance sheet full of depreciating "necessities", because i know that i pay in full for anything i buy or if i can't afford it i don't but it at all...

third world countries have no credit because they exist under a state that does not respect property rights which prevents the accumulation of capital, credit in and of itself isn't bad, most of us here on ZH despise manipulated credit, point being that without the fed the market would set rates and prevent malinvestment from happening...i.e. subprime loans for houses and cars...

absent central banking, credit actually plays a role in the formation of capital, not its destruction...

tmosley's picture

Haiti has plenty of debt.  We don't need any more, thanks.

Your comment smacks of consumer culture.  Credit does NOTHING but encourage those who have it to spend beyond their means, and enslave them after that sweet, sweet immediate reward.  If you had saved up for five years you could have bought that house for cash.  If EVERYONE had to save to buy homes, then it would only take two and a half (because the function of savings greatly increases the value of those same savings when they are spent, in addition to the capital accumulation that comes about from those same savings).

The only reason the people you cite were poor was because they lived/live in a kleptocracy.  And end stage one, rather than our nacient one.  You have done nothing but suppose that correlation equals causation.

Lednbrass's picture

Hilarious, you arent as good as MDB yet but decent effort.

Im assuming this was a joke, otherwise you would be a complete fucking idiot.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

Your hypothesis on credit extension applies to the average Greek citizen as well. Now, why don't they just let them have more? It's only credit. It's only a ledger entry after all. (Watch the vid.)

What you haven't extrapolated from the ever growing credit accessability, is the system dosen't supply the blanket where-with-all (jobs that pay enough) to pay it back.

Henry Hub's picture

**Credit has allowed you to buy a house, a car, that 1080p HD widescreen, and probably most everything else you own.**

I have an alternative solution for you. This going to seem unbelievable to you, incredibly radical. Instead of buying all that crap on credit why don't you save up until you have enough and PAY CASH!! It's called delayed gratification. Your grandfather or maybe your great-grandfather learned this during the last depression. A lot of people are in the process of learning this lesson again

Maximilien Robespierre's picture

Credit = Darwinian cheating.

Credit is there to take advantage of peoples instinctual weakness while lining the pockets of PEOPLE WHO HAVE FUCKING NOTHING TO DO WITH MAKING YOUR HOUSE, CAR, 1080p hd WIDESCREEN AND PROBABLY MOST EVERYTHING ELSE YOU OWN.

Credit is a belief, like a religion, a hoax, praying on self deception weakness that "I'll be productive for this shit later because I want this shit NOW"

Good in the short term, cheating mother nature on a long enough time line.

Tsar Pointless's picture

+15 trillion and counting

The only thing that debt has saved is...well, the bankster-gangster elite that we allow to rule over us.

PsychicWebbah's picture

No one is making you patronize the likes of Chase and BoA. Borrowing from and lending to them gives them the power.

BigJim's picture

Because our beloved overlords have allowed a select cartel to create money out of nothing - the credit you so love - houses, land, and everything else bought on credit have been bid up by people willing to go into hock to buy them, so that everyone else needs to borrow if they wish to buy a house, because the currency the have to work their asses off to collect is the same currency banks can whisk out of nowhere.

So, yes, you do need to get into debt, because we have had government-enabled runaway inflation in essential assets bought on credit.

CrazyCooter's picture

Credit, like a gun, is just like another tool; it is the actions of the wielder which decide good/bad or right/wrong. Without credit, trade, particularly international trade, would not occur, plunging the world into an economic hell. On the flip side, you are correct, credit has been abused and used in many ways it never should have.

Balance is somewhere in the middle.



Bicycle Repairman's picture

Would you hand a child a g-ddamned gun?

Maximilien Robespierre's picture

Look deeper.  The smartest mother fuckers on the planet are working in finance because CREDIT pays them THE MOST MONEY OF ANY JOB ON THE FUCKING PLANET. Neurosurgeons make SHIT compared to finance credit architects (alchemists).

If this race ever wants to evolve - we best not be having those smart MF'ers sitting in skyscrapers in downtown Manhattan.

We are cheating reality here folks.


When you go to work every day, you are not working to pay the guy who worked on your house construction, plumbing or electrical work or who taught you something in college.  You are paying some fuck head who sits in front of a computer screen all day looking for ways to add new CREDIT pyramids to your productivity.

Scalaris's picture

No, credit isn't our savior, but it can be used as a usefull facility within a corruption-free market, managed by a cronyism-free government, existing in a less manipulated, to the point of hyperconsumerism masked as social darwinism and/or status indication, society, with a population that overindulges in overconsumption in order to fill any sense of meaning or lack of community.

Then again idealism is realism's bitch sister so back to drawing board.

Drinks all around

kridkrid's picture

You summarize the difference between the US and Zimbabwe as the access to credit?  Really?  That's the one thing that separates us? 

PsychicWebbah's picture

Feel free to pick your own 3rd world country. Pretty sure Mugabe turned hyper-rich just like our politicians do. Still the common man in Zimbabwe had no access to credit. It isn't the only reason but it is the biggest reason.

jonan's picture

real credit is the hard earned savings of individual productive efforts, the credit we have today is fake and destructive, it has only lasted as long as it has due to the amount of capital our great grandparents accumulated, which only took a few generations of fake credit to destroy...

this is the reason our standard of living has to drop moving forward, we have destroyed america's accumulated capital, there is nothing left but lollipops, unicorns, ledger entries and licorice...

Jordan Kanter's picture

Wow, such vitriol!  Your own frothing-at-the-mouth seething, solipsism, and myopia just shine through.  I am actually a former economist and finance attorney, sir, not a 'fucking idiot.'   There are ways to bring about the default-en-masse so as to not turn us into Zimbabwe.  But your attitude makes me wonder the degree of difference between folks like you, and savages.  Not far apart, unfortunately, I have observed with many of my fellow Americans.  Grow up, kid. 

PsychicWebbah's picture

Oh my! Two of the worlds worst professions all rolled into one person. Fancy that.

Jordan Kanter's picture

Your frothing-at-the-mouth demeanor continues.  Conversation over.  Good luck to you; try to tone down a bit, so your posts don't read like a tantrum.  

PsychicWebbah's picture

Lawyers know best. Always works in Washington right?

tmosley's picture

Lawyers know the law, yes.

The problem is when lawyers, or anybody else, MAKES the law such that men can steal from men.

Nice ad hominem though.

weinerdog43's picture

Heavens know I don't agree w/tmosley much, but in this respect he is 100% correct.  Western civilization is a government of LAWS over men.  Everyone should know the law.  Lawyers are those of us who are experts in interpreting those laws.  Complex societies require complex laws.  Good luck enforcing patent law in that libertarian paradise of Somalia.

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

'I am actually a former economist,and finance attorney"


What you are saying is you are a "LIAR AND A THIEF".......


Henry Hub's picture

**I am actually a former economist and finance attorney**

You would probably be better received here if you said former prostitute an urinal cleaner.

FEDbuster's picture

I was thinking gay fluffer and jizz mopper.

Prairie Fire's picture

Thank you for that!

You hit the nail on the head!

These kids seem to think that a centrally planned economy would be the answer to everything--they want an unending stream of handout money (the same amount for everyone, except the leaders of ows of course) and not have to work for any of it.

Free housing for all, free education, free this free that. Fucking scumbags.

I saw 5 of the Occupy camps in Canada: Vancouver, Edmonton, the 2 camps in Calgary and Regina.

I have never been more disgusted in my life.

Kayman's picture

Prairie Fire

Changing from our current Centrally Planned Economies to another variation of  Centrally Planned Economies will do nothing.

Fixed your rant for ya....