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Kyle Bass Vindication Imminent? Largest Japanese Pension Fund Begins To Sell JGBs
Sayonara internal funding. In what we suspect will become a major issue (and warned in April of last year), Bloomberg reports that Japan’s public pension fund, the world’s largest, said it has been selling domestic government bonds as the number of people eligible for retirement payments increases. "Payouts are getting bigger than insurance revenue, so we need to sell Japanese government bonds to raise cash." It would appear the Ponzi has reached it's Tipping Point. Japan’s population is aging, and baby boomers born in the wake of World War II are beginning to reach 65 and eligible for pensions. That’s putting GPIF under pressure to sell JGBs so it can cover the increase in payouts.
The fund needs to raise about 8.87 trillion yen this fiscal year. GPIF is historically one of the biggest buyers of Japanese debt and held 71.9 trillion yen, or 63 percent of its assets, in domestic bonds as of March.
This leaves the biggest question "to whom will the pension fund sell?" After all it is all marginal and everyone just front-runs the biggest players (Governments and their Central-Bank caring internal funds). Now that the pensions funds are out, there is no more incentive to frontrun them - a la The Fed - which is summed up by the fund's manager "There isn’t much value in short-term notes as the BOJ’s massive asset purchases have made their yields extremely low."
From our April 2011 thoughts:
In the world of bonds, few things have perplexed investors as much as the ridiculously low (and going lower) rates of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), at last check yielding 1.22%. Granted "deflation" in Japan has long been quoted as the key driver for the ongoing decline in real and nominal rates, but in practical market terms it was always the fact that there was a buyer of first and last resort, usually this being either Japanese citizens directly or their proxy, the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) that kept yields in check and sliding.
and from SocGen's Dylan Grice 2010 views (full presentation here):
This is far from just a JGB market problem. As Japan's retirees age and run down their wealth, Japan's policymakers will be forced to sell assets, including US Treasuries currently worth $750bn, or Y70 trillion "eight months" worth of domestic financing. At nearly 10% of the outstanding US Treasury stock, this might well precipitate other government funding crises (bearing in mind that the Japanese model is the argument buttressing confidence in Western government bonds in the face of deteriorating fiscal conditions). At the very least I'd expect it to trigger an international bond market rout scary enough to spook all other asset classes.
And As Kyle Bass has questioned numerous times, will 2010 be the beginning of the end of flawed Keynesian economics?
Maybe Japan's will be the crisis that wakes up the rest of the world and triggers some tough decisions on world-wide debt loads. Or maybe not - maybe the Greeks will beat them to it? or the Irish or the UK, or the US? Like banks in 2007, developed market governments today rely on sustained capital markets more than any time in their history. What if they shut?
(h/t Brian)
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Hmm, reminds me of a snake eating its tail...
I thought Bernanke was American?
"Reality is not optional" ~Thomas Sowell
I doubt that Tyler. For one thing, what do you think these Japanese people will do with the pension payments they receive. Buy iPhones? No. They will put the money in the bank, because they really don't need it. Japan isn't the USA. The USA has about 50 million people living below the poverty level. Japan has around 1 million people living below the poverty level. As a percentage, the poverty level in Japan is 1/4 the poverty level in USA.
Like I said, these pensioners probably don't need the money and will likely just bank it again.
What about the declining population? Their population numbers are dropping fast.
we aint seen nothing yet. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Population_of_Japan_s...
Passed along Kyle's hour-long video to a colleague in which he described his views on everything including Japan. My friend ordered his first shipment of gold that day.Bass is not alone in his view about Japan, but he is one of the more compelling spokesmen on the subject.
Yeah...right or wrong, he's a pretty interesting speaker about all this stuff.
I've read a couple of articles in recent weeks/months which basically claim he is/was wrong about Japan...as if the matter is settled...
What's funny about those articles is that they all seem to suggest that Bass has predicted that Japan would come unglued "immediately" (i.e., within a few months or so) after the first sovereign default in Europe...
That, at best, is a "mischaracterization," if not a flat out lie, about what Bass has been predicting...at least from what I have heard him say on the subject...
Rather, his comments on the timing of "it" in Japan have been that the situation(s) in Europe would be an "accelerant" for what would eventually happen in Japan...and he certainly hasn't given a definite timeline...again, at least from I have heard. In fact, at one of the AmeriCatalysts events (maybe one of the videos you are talking about) he specifically said something to the effect of "the bill is due today in Europe...tommorow in Japan...and here in the U.S. the next day...and of course those days are separated by years..."
Now, MAYBE one could criticize him for not being more specific with his timeline...
That said, based on his record in recent years, when he speaks, I listen.
Cue the CNBC bulltards: Japan is different!
LOL. If a trade is painful enough to be known as 'Widowmaker', then in the end its bound to make major coin cause only the true believers will be holding on. The Japanese ponzi seemed everlasting though.
An Australian Ponzi:
http://s1144.photobucket.com/albums/o489/_DrBenway/
He's always been "wrong" until in the end it is discovered he was right, very right. And I think he's right this time too.
Can you link me to his vid please?
I'm not sure if you were addressing me...but here are the 2010 and 2011 AmeriCatalyst videos with Kyle Bass...
Each is about an hour long...but WELL worth it, IMHO.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWgtzwqWh60
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw
and soon the health bill from fuku will pile up.
That's good news; fewer people, fewer expenditures.
Watch Geithner Get Blasted By Congress: "How Can A Number That You Know Has Been Manipulated Possibly Be The Best Choice For Bailouts?"
And fewer taxes fedophile.
Actually, there are about 20 million people living in poverty in Japan. Unemployment is low, but the wages have kept up by going even lower. It's worse than most people know in the US. Single recent college grads live either with their parents or in sub-500sf apartments, and in many cases, sub-250sf apartments. It's simply that people have too much trust in the government and take whatever bullshit the government dishes out.
Google some news stories on this. It's pretty bad.
At the end of the day it does not matter what the reason is. If they are that resolute about it then it goes on and on. I imagine thats why the Germans wake up every day and just work, right up till the end. They may be pissed about it but they don't know any other way. Thats just my guess.
Actually, you've probably never been to Japan. Your impressions are laughable. But Google away genius.
Geez, I didn't mean to provoke a personal attack.
But yes, I was there, late last year, genius.
I love the place but 35% of the workers are now part time/ low paid. Taiwan and Sth Korea have slowly overtaken them. Japanese Government admits its isolatonist policy to Foreign workers has force fed the decline of the aging population. The young Japanese don't want children and to marry. It is a fact it is a candle burning from both ends. They have tried to use labour and capital outside the country but that is not helping the Japanese people, just the Large Corporations. Japans future has not many positives. Is this what Governement intervention/ QE does? if so it is predictive.
The lost 20 years
At the risk of beating this subject completely to death, yes, it is wonderful there. In what other place can a bajillion people be walking about from place to place in a complete frenzy (at least in the city), but you still feel comfortable and unstressed?
The one main factor that will be bad for Japan in the short and intermediate future is it cultural cohesiveness. This, however, will be an incredible boon long term. I don't think any other country has this going for them. As long as this stays intact, the future will not be as bleak as in other countries (US) where politicians are actively destroying the country for political gain.
Comfortable? Yes.
Unstressed? Absolutely not. But they do have a stronger level of gaman that keeps them from blowing apart too often, and when they do, it usually manifests in the form of throwing themselves in front of a rush-hour train rather than causing physical harm to others.
They may be the first to crack, and the last to totally disintegrate.
Thanks ACP. A thoughtful comment.... Japan does have this feature that other 'Nation States' do not have.
No one gets out of this 'mess' without harm. When I see or observe America I see a country of States, Philosophies, Beliefs, Cultures, Political (Red vs Blue Team) and races that just plain do not get along.
Completely polarised and wating for the trigger to explode. Many other Countries have similar issues but they are also not so large and have such a large, diverse, population.
This will not end well.
The United States is too big and too diversified. It will either split apart peacefully, or it will be a long drawn out ugly nightmare.
Let's follow the post-Soviet model and not the post-Yugoslavia model.
They had better throw together some nukes, they can probably do it in a day or two any way but if their are young women there the Chinese will come sniffing soon.. About 20 million strong I'd say..
Easter Island Extinction Award. 2036. And the winner is (drum roll, pause) The Land of the Setting Sun! (golf clap, crickets).
Then you should likely know better than to say there are 20 million people living in poverty. That's just moronic. Look at the facts.
Your math is wrong. The website you reference has the % of Japanese population below poverty as 15.7% and according to Google the latest estimate of the Japanese population is 127.65M, so the total is ~ 20M people below poverty level in Japan.
If you are going to flame someone for being moronic, you should probably not post links to data that prove you wrong and them right.
Well, I only lived there for 15 years, from 23 -> 38, so across the whole young->middle-age demographic.
I for one, think his assesment is pretty much right on.
I share his optimism for Japan's ultimate future outlook bacause of their willingness to work together (westerners, other than maybe Oz/Kiwis, won't have a clue about the extent of this), but holy crap there's gonna be a rough patch when the people have had their last straw with their failed politicians and paper-pushers... it will be ugly.
It is personal, idiot comments like yours that insure your time on this site is limited-do it one more time and we will remove you- trolls like you have tripled since the ponzi has started falling apart...troll somewhere else-"precious".
suck my dick, idiot
Spot on, which is why you have 11 ups and Zero downs, the real Japan was never what we were led to believe, even in 1987 when Jogn Pilger made his documentary titled "Japan Behind the Mask"
It doesn't seem like there are that many because they are so well-behaved.
Take a walk in a park in Shinjuku or Ueno, and compare with what you might see in NYC...
ACP, This is a bit dated so the statistics are actually a lot worse but it demonstrates exactly what your talking about. Before anyone asks I lived there 10 yrs and return there every year. I do know.
http://factsanddetails.com/japan.php?itemid=640&catid=19&subcatid=120
Like the US and the UK, Japan’s economy is heading of the cliff. Their population is aging rapidly and both their private pensions and social security benefits are mostly un-funded. Savings are declining. Japan has very little energy and natural resources. Commodities are imported. This was not a problem while Japan was running a massive trade surplus. The GDP was supported by exports and a cheap yen supported an economy of exporters. The BOJ intervened constantly to maintain a cheap currency. As a result, they have accumulated huge FX reserves of which 1,000 billion is denominated in USD and parked in US treasuries.
Here’s the game changer: The global economy is slowing. Japanese manufacturing jobs are moving to other Asian countries. Japan needs energy and commodities to rebuild its infrastructure. 30% of their electricity generating capacity has vanished because all their nuclear power generators are now offline. Energy imports have soared. They are now running a trade deficit with the US and China that will likely continue. This trade deficit will force a change from a weak Yen to a strong currency policy to facilitate their infrastructure reconstruction through cheaper imported material and energy. Their debt to GDP is over 200% and that’s excluding the unfunded liabilities. They need money and printing is no longer to their advantage because it makes imports more expensive. The incentive for a weak currency is no longer there.
Consequently, I believe the BOJ will buy JGB’s while the Japanese government repatriates some of their USD FX reserve made possible by selling USD assets. Selling US assets and dollars for yens will exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. A rapid unwinding of the Japanese carry trade will follow. US import prices will escalate as a result to the detriment of over-leveraged and unemployed American consumers.
Good analysis IcQb. We are looking into the crystal ball as the US unless we change our ways. We may be importing labor in the form of low level labor. What we are lacking is high skilled labor. This will become rare when the US baby boomers start to retire and US business remains picky to their own detriment.
We import our fair shares of skilled workers as well. It's called the visa program. What US corporations won't do is train Americans to do the same jobs. The compensation for skilled labor is going into the toilet, because we import too much labor.
Bobby, you are right in the fact that we import skilled labor. They are brought in on visas, worked to death and kicked to the curb. People in industry are tired of the smelly Asians. They are good hard working citizens, but do not bring much to the table for company culture or community.
The most important question no one dares to ask is:
What can we make that Asia will buy?
dollars?
Thanks, I needed the laugh.
White women
We can't complete with Russia and other Eastern European lands.
T-bills.
Big tits.
GMO foodstuffs.
protection (mafia-style)
They really wanted the F22? Thinking about it even the Aussies would have bought 50 or so.
Chicken feet. At least the Chinese think so. They love American chicken feet.
Soft commodities (grain, corn, soy, rice)... In theory, the US should switch to producing only soft commodities and weapons. That will solve everything.
I like your suggestion. Extreme...Yes ...but in the right direction.
Either go back to basics or go all out high tech. Better math and sciences are needed for K~12 for the later.
Too bad no one will read this post any more.
Not true. :)
The Orange County Employees Retirement System – which has assets valued at some $10 billion — also happens to be about $10 billion shy of what it needs to fulfill its pension promises to workers, according to a study of California’s largest independent pension systems by researchers at Stanford University.
Put another way, OCERS is only 53.5 percent funded, they said. Stanford suggests that a healthy system must be at least 80 percent funded (but others say that even 80 percent is way too low).
Some 40,000 people depend on OCERS for retirement security. OCERS, and just about every other public pension system, expects to earn 7.75 percent on investments.
http://taxdollars.ocregister.com/2012/03/09/stanford-o-c-retirement-syst...
Underfunded pension plans are all the rage.....
In a nut shell that was a great post - well done IcQB
The Fuki radiation coating the northern half of the country has encouraged Japan's Elites to move out to safer, lower radiation level places from what I read. Anyone with money or a skill looks outward for many of IcQb's reasons and now they have the Fuki mess to add to their list of reasons to emigrate.
Japan's standard of living at "poverty level" is lower than the US (as measured by average living quarters, car ownership, etc)
That's just patently stupid. Again from another googler whose never even been to Japan. There are dozens of reasons that illustrate how the average living standard in Japan much ahead of the USA. The size of your living room is not an indicator of poverty. Look at the facts.
Those facts (the same ones you posted before that actually proved you wrong about the numbers of Japanese below the poverty line) are non-sequitor to the argument that the relative standards of living are different. The small apartments are large walk-in closets (250 sqft is ~16X16 ft room). This should not be surprising considering the population density of Japan compared to the US. The cost of food is also very high (again not surprising considering the small amount of farmland compared per capita). The cost of energy is huge considering it all has to be imported (which is why nuclear was so big, and with nuclear plants shut down (mostly) they have a serious electricity shortage.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/21/japan-nuclear-reactor-idINL4E8I...
http://www.eia.gov/cabs/japan/Full.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-13/japan-to-experience-power-short...
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120726b8.html
I just spent all of 5 minutes checking the facts -- maybe you should try it also before calling someone stupid.
Don't feed the trolls, attitude. It is part of their M.O. They won't let facts get in their way!
Having lived in Japan for over 2 years I would have to agree with Attitude_Check on this one.
Many poor people in Japan feel too ashamed to ask for help so "the stats" are not going to reflect reality in this case anyways.
In my experience, food in Japan was expensive depending on where you lived and what you bought. I lived in a small mountain town that was agriculturally based so rice, tea and vegetables were cheap at the local co-op compared to stores in the big cities. Driving a vehicle was prohibitive with high car taxes, insurance, fuel and toll roads but necessary after a huge typhoon washed out the only train line in the area.
The high school I taught at had three - four story buildings of which only one floor per building was being used due to steady depopulation in the area. The only thing that the kids want to do after graduation is move away to a big city. The school board even set up a farm program so local kids could learn how to raise cattle, plant rice, tea etc and go work on their family farms. The locals are trying everything they can to stop the area from dying (except immigration... unless of course they are young women of eastern European decent).
In my opinion, Kyle Bass is right about Japan.
Let's consider this argument in some limiting circumstances. Large Scale: Rather live in Versaille or a cardboard box? How about if your living room is the size of a cardboard box? What if it is a cardboard box? Then you would be homeless wouldn't you? How do you like them facts? See what you can do with multiple neutons and a few synapses? Always take limits if you want to understand an argument. Standard of living does scale with energy consumption, size of residence, vehicle ownership, horsepower of vehicle etc. because the more you reduce entropy the higher degree of order in your life and the more options and freedom of choice, the greater the likihood of satisfaction.
WTF?
Houses and apartments are very small compared to the US. Also, most Japanese dont need a car to get to work or run errands!
-007
Japan doesn't have a border where lots of wetbacks are sneaking over, either!
Ouroboros is the name i believe you're looking for.
Is that snake taking a shit whilst eating its own tail?
"A snake eating its tail"........I prefer to say a dog eating its own vomit.
I was going to say this situation is more like a dog eating its own vomit.
Where the hell do I send my dollar to you so you can REMOVE those insidious smiley ObumASS and Ms. Predator banner ads off this frigg'in page!!!
The idiots freak me out, like some prick staring at me like "Big Bro" is watching!!!
Go here: http://www.mvps.org/winhelp2002/hosts2.htm
follow the directions, ads gone.
Bass is a big fish.
You know, you read about this, it's obvious that it has to happen at some point, and then month after month the government seems to avoid the inevitable and you forget about it, and then all of a sudden, reality finally makes an appearance. Will be interesting to see what full-scale monetization of Japanese govt debt does to the yen, and what the knock on effects are.
I am sure the people who the pensions are paying out to are using their pension money to buy more japanese government debt....Call it a ponzi reinvestment program
What is truly amazing is the metaphoric gun that must be to their heads if Japan holds their treasuries and sells their own debt causing an avalanche on their own heads.
reverse carry trade? borrow from ben and lend to Japan at 9%?
Ruh Roh!
There aren't enough Scooby Snacks in all of Osaka for Mrs. Watanabe to bury her sorrows under when her pension cheque comes in at a fraction of what she's expecting.
Of course, the recent decline in cat food sales in Japan may experience a sudden, and (publicly) unexplained reversal...
I feel bad for all those who depended on the pension funds being there as they contributed during their working lives.
For all the Americans and others in the world who are reitred or are retiring and depend on this, it will be a real wake up call as families are not always in a position to help out.
Fuck 'em. The .01% each needed another island. Retirement is for the wealthy.
How about everyone else who has to foot the bill for those pensions? Knowing full well they will pay into the system as much if not more with no promises at the end for them?
Social Security?
How about everyone that looted them?
Don't feel bad for them....these Cali fuckers voted themselves massive pay raises along with gold-plated bennies. The taxpayers went along for the ride....until they didn't. Prop 13 screwed them up. Now Cali has a choice: cut the libtard shit out or disintegrate.
Young ZH punks don't remember how awsome Japan was in the 80s
almost anyone can live outside their means for awhile... some longer than others.
Nobody remembers how awesome the US was in the 1800's...before the Federal Reserve and the income tax.
Don't forgot before labor unions too. Life in the middle class was great then.
Most people in the middle class were small business owners.
Poor farmers...
I remember reading "Rising Sun" in the early 90s and being convinced that we'd all be debt slaves working for Japanese masters by now. I still think its going to be a while before the System implodes. Unlike Spain or Greece, the Fed and the BOJ can print their own $$. The US especially has hundreds of trillions $$ in assets; these assets both underpin and dwarf the debt.
You were wrong in early 90s and you are wrong again now about those trillions $$ in assets
Really? Research how much land the Government owns and the resources that are on that land. Not to mention buildings, equipment, etc.
Are those valued by the same people who worked at Bear Stearns? Excuse me, but I think if they were so valuable, the USA would not be producing deficit year after year, and it added about 1 million $ of debt in the time it took to write this.
The land is underutilized. In many cases, it is either:
1. Fallow, perhaps for environmental reasons
2. Leased to Industry at well below true market value
Bottom line -- the Government is not an efficient manager of its resources. Is this a surprise?
Finally a thing we can agree on, the government is not an efficient manager of its resources. One of its resources is land, and one other is its people. And than there is its currency and the current account. Well, the USA government has been mismanaging all of them, and its debt is supported only by the FED buying lots of it.
But in fact you have a point, once the dolar is devalued, the $15 trillion of debt is going to be a tiny sum.
"One of its [government] resources is land, and one other is its people."
Please direct me to this centrist utopia yall speak of at once so that I may too be livestock.
You are already there.
The biggest asset USA had was the people living there, but its goverment succeded on transforming them into the sheeple.
Now you hear the same shit about China. Ain't gonna happen.
Last weekend, I took my kids to DC visiting some great museums. What took me by surprise is that nearly half of visitors in all the museums we visited were Chinese-speaking teens, which quicky reminds me the days of late 80s when armies of Japanese students visiting DC museums.
I remember clearly how awesome Japan was in the 80's. I still like their cars. But I'm not sure what that has to do with their imminent discovery of what happens to a society that borrows from its population of savers for 30 odd years and then has to tell them, when they retire, that the it can't pay them back.
Yes. Curious. I was just re-reading Shintaro Ishihara's <The Japan That Can Say "No"> yesterday...
Yep remember that too. Japan was taking over the world!!
It's unfortunate because they're great people. It's just the Gov't that stinks.
Chalk another one up to good 'ol Socialism
LOL! Yes. I still have one of their cars. 1989 Accord S. Bought at the peak of Japanese prowess and arrogance. Might go nicely with a 2012 Cadillac.
China was awesome, too. So was Taiwan before the LTCM collapse.
LTCM? What's that got to do with Taiwan? I'm there NOW...the big difference between this island and North America is that here they actually still have thousands of small enterprises (and big ones) that actually MAKE STUFF.
And just about everyone has a job. And things cost less. And there are more product choices. And less regulation. And my wife's taxes are 6-10%.
Making "stuff" is greatly overrated. Why is making some throw-away carnival prize, or even a soon-to-be-obsolete LCD TV, superior to cutting somebody's hair? Sounds old paradigm, as if sweat and heavy lifting are somehow more noble. I don't understand why production of some arbitrage-able good is superior to non-arbitrage-able services. I guess that's because personally I'd prefer to be a chatty gossip than a worker drone. Also, "services" tend to be less polluting than the manufacture of "stuff". After trying to breathe in China, or searching for a clean glass of water, you still think China is winning? On a planet of finite resources, future manufacturing is going to be like an old Rolls Royce factory: the production of a very few, made-to-last, high quality goods. Whither China's excess productive capacity? Perhaps the US will wake up one morning and be happy that it has a fully-depreciated production base. If most work is merely make-work to give existing souls a reason to be, which it is, then doing something that is sustainable, non-polluting, and cannot be exported might prove to be the ticket.
It's too late to prepare for yesterday. Better to prepare for tomorrow.
Why can I find poodle grooming, massages, shiatsu, cooking classes and art appreciation classes in North America but not buy an American-made coathanger anywhere...?
Standards of living are too high vis-a-vis dismal US productivity levels.
MAKING THINGS increases wealth. And can be exported, earning even more. Cutting hair...not.
"I don't understand why production of some arbitrage-able good is superior to non-arbitrage-able services."
When push comes to shove, I'll trust my $500 Glock over a $500 hairstyle thank you very much.
Instead of spending $250k on every GI Jane enlistee for battle training, we should spend an equivalent amount on plastic surgery and turn every one into a super model? Then we can seduce the enemy into sex slavery?
"China was awesome, too. So was Taiwan before the LTCM collapse."
Fuck that. China was never "awesome" until four largest Chinese banks went IPO using Wall Street banksters a few years back. You need to check your facts. Taiwan's peak stock market performance was 1989.
It's like when your a kid in a pool holding a basketball underneath the water...not so hard until you finally lose grip, with no time to react. They will do everything in their power to avoid a dislocation.
Imo, they will continue to backstop TEPCO b/c if they do not, the floodgates will open and the rates will rise. Radiation is secondary.
A public pension fund isn't buying public debt? Now that's just unpatriotic. How dare they not buy their own government's debt.
Simple fix= CTRL-P ad nauseum.
What is the Japanese equivalent to "running on fumes"?
wunning on fooms
Why don't they put some cute singing and dancing girls up on stage on a concert tour, and they can promote JGB's during their show? Oh, they already do that you say?
I know this is cold, but do they have ice floes in Japan???
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter
You should post more often.
Thank you!!! I will try to be more visible.
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter
From your pic you're looking a little thin. Try eating a steak.
ok, good on you, Kyle. For us retail investors, what's the trade?
Close out your positions. Duck and cover.
"Sushi, Kamakaze, Fujiyama, nipponichi....."
Hari kari
Seppuku
[IMG]http://i849.photobucket.com/albums/ab51/cbxer55/seppuku.jpg[/IMG]
There is no trade.
They are (and were the first) stuck on Zombie.
Can u boil a Zombie to death?....Bass-san, u will wait a long time.
Bass-san, u will wait a long time - LOL
I would bet against the USA before I bet against Japan anyday. GDP to Debt Ratio or not.
Japan is not Greece.
Isn't it nice to know "It can't happen here"...?
Ah, yes. That pesky demographic priniciple underlying and driving 80% of all economic activity, that prinicple Political Economist parading as scientists have been ignoring in their "models" as they road her wave for the past 50 years....
Now if only the US could actually structure a real immigration program, one that tosses out all those who snuk across illegally and welcomed those of desired character and intelligence, we too may avoid this wave.
Eventually, every frog in the process of boiling becomes fully-boiled.
i prefer the ZH....everyone drops to zero"
None of this is funny. These psychos will fuck us all and take great pleasure in doing it. Please stop blaming the sheeple what actions have people here taken to put a stop to this? we have been dumbed down through school, lied to out whole lives, and trying to wake up to that is a process and takes time, and the ability to educate yourself. While you are waking up you still have bills to pay, mouths to feed, and so on.
What is happening and what will happen is sad beyond words. People should not work hard their whole life and then find what they believed in and paid for has been stolen, by a criminal cartel who are never held accountable as they own and control everything - starting with what you are taught in school.
For those that think PM's will save you, dream on. If you don't think they have thought that through you are not fully awake. It is just another piece on their chess board they control most of it, and while you might see a little upside benefit they have plans for that too.
"we have been dumbed down through school"
Uh, no.
YOU have dumbed yourself down by squandering school.
why don't you do a little research on the history of education in america and then come back and tell me what you think, oh wise one
First of all, the "YOU" was not a personal you. I wrote it that way as a generic reply to anyone who whines along the "you didn't teach me/warn me/protect me" line. In short, the standard 99% whine.
As for the more general question of education in America, btw the A is capitalized, then I do not agree but go beyond your assertion.
The American educational system has been deeply perverted.
Do you not see the contradiction in your sentence that says "and then find what they believed in and paid for has been stolen" yet is shortly followed by "starting with what you are taught in school"?
If this were the 1800s, or even before the mid-1900s, I'd agree with the premise the sheeple werent able to know better. But now, a decade into the information revolution? No, one has a hard time blaming their ignorance on others. That was my point.
As for blaming the sheeple. Who are we to blame? The sheeple can save themselves, by vote or by gun; as a retired military guy, I strongly recommend the former. The Cartel can be overthrown, by good old fashion Founding Father's conservative principles.
You are right Old-Story. None of this is funny. But you are wrong if you think blaming the Cartel or the education system is really the answer.
Good luck to you, and I hope your story changes.
LOL, the A is capitalized. Yeh, maybe when it stood for something. So your point is because we now have a decade of the Internet everyone should know what is going on? You can not be serious.
As for blaming the sheeple. Who are we to blame? The sheeple can save themselves, by vote or by gun; as a retired military guy, I strongly recommend the former.
I rest my case. It seems your decade on the Internet leaves you still believing in the tooth fairy. Oh, and the fact you were in the military is further proof that you were steeped in sheeple stew. I am sure I will get arrows down for saying this, but if you research most wars, and follow the money, etc you will know I am speaking truth.
I decided at "LOL, the A is capitalized" you are to ignorant and selfish to waste anymore time on you and your 99% whining.
Good luck with your ignorance, anger, and whiny blaming everyone else kid.
and good luck to you thinking the whiny people only have themselves to blame. You miss the bigger picture looking through such a narrow lenses. Alas your type have been with us for ever, flashing your credentials, why?
Here's a little education... That's been hidden from the sheeple for 70 years... And remember, History repeats...
http://www.revisionisthistory.org/communist.html
>>>>>>as a retired military guy
So no one in the private sector would hire you?
There's nothing like the military this side of prison.
Your moniker fits. Yours is a common lament around here. There's always a "they" and "they" always have some Master Plan, which only the "fully awake" can see.
I suspect this mind set came from the same place that produces god-fearing drones who dismiss tsunamis and childhood cancer as part of some mysterious Master Plan. Screw everybody's god, shit happens, and most of it is random.
THERE IS NO PLAN. "They" are as incompetent as anybody's god, except for the Greek gods, who were believed to be both vindictive and fallible. You give "them" far too much credit. Please go review the genesis and transcript of the European problem. Look over the supposed plans to stop the bleeding, whether it was in Greece, Italy of Spanish Banks. These clowns are competent?
"They" are dinosaurs and they don't see the asteroid coming at them. Just as successful nations get fat and lazy and drift into the decline phase of human society, the "they" had it good for a long time and got complacent.
Accept some personal responsibility. Save yourself. "They" will be running around like chickens with their heads cut off, perhaps literally.
Oh boo-hoo. My father taught me debt was servitude. He taught me that cutting back basically meant buying nothing but cheap necessities. He was damaged by too much dependent responsibility at a young age, but he was not a whiner. Suck it up and stop surrendering like a Frenchman. "They" are just a corrupt political and corporate system. "We" out-number them. Finally, "PM's" is a relatively small market that very rich people have stockpiled. So they are a good CURRENCY to own. Good luck.
GODZILLAA!!!!!!
So how much money did Kyle make on this? Surprise, surprise said an accountant, all expenses are paid from cash on hand.
This site is getting stupider and stupider.
time for another Fukashima event
for anybody stupid enough to believe and rely on any one of these fucking ponzi gub run scams; just go fuck yourself and certainly don't tell me you paid in and you deserve blah blah, fucking can't wait for you to come knocking, cause i put up with your shit and i had to be labelel the dooms dayer and laughed at. hey and not to fucking mention i lived within my means and you spent your fucking money on the new chev while i ran um to rust and smoke, fuck off you wastefull cunts; i can't wait to piss on you in the gutter. a little pent up anger -eh.
Yet Somehow they seem to be able to keep buying up our good racehorses for stud
71.9 trillion yen = just under one trillion bucks. SS trust fund 2.6 trillion but stuff always sounds like so much more in yen.
There is a reason this trade is called the Widowmaker. Like fonzannoon mentioned earlier, most likely the Japanese pensioners will just reinvest these payouts into JGBs, if needed. The Japanese are much more patriotic than Americans, and seem willing to sacrifice a ton to make sure their way of life is preserved. I would not call this the tipping point by any means. If this was America, sure, because as much as we Americans claim to be patriots, we're nothing but a bunch of selfish pricks. Most Americans could care less about the system imploding, as long as they "got theirs" beforehand.
If that was going to work, then this article wouldn't have been written. The whole point is that they HAVE TO SELL, because their payouts are bigger than their income, which makes sense because if you're retired and have no income other than your pension, clearly you have to spend that pension income on things like food, energy, etc, and therefore are not able to reinvest it (at least not all of it) back into JGBs.
None of this stuff is rocket science, the fucking bankers and gov'ts just intentionally complexify it, to make it look less ponzi-ish and provide more opportunities for graft, corruption and theft.