Last Minute Summit Mutiny Threatens The Future Of The Euro; And Why A Wholesale S&P Downgrade Of Europe Will Be Devastating

Tyler Durden's picture

A day when everything that could go wrong for the euro and eurozone has just gotten worse. Hours away from the completion of the summit, whose failure will unleash a nuclear bomb of serial downgrades by S&P (let along expose frauds such as Sarkozy and Olli Rehn who claim, yet again, that the world will end a solution is found), The Telegraph writes that the summit is already in tatters after a rebellion and threats by Finland, Holland and Ireland are poised to scuttle the summit. Louise Armistead reports that 'Finland’s grand committee said decisions made by the ESM – the eurozone’s permanent bail-out fund set for launch in 2012 – had to remain unanimous, and not changed to the “qualified majority” that French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel have agreed. The Finns are backed by the Netherlands, which fears proposals to withdraw veto powers from the ESM is an erosion of democracy and would make it vulnerable to funding bail-outs without recourse. Meanwhile, the Irish want to block plans for the “convergence and harmonisation” of the eurozone’s “corporate tax base”. The rebellion is a serious threat to German and French plans to sign treaty changes today along the lines laid out in their joint letter on Wednesday. In it, the leaders said they hoped all 27 European Union countries would sign.' And since this is the only option to bypass a popular vote, the mere thought of which would destroy the Eurozone in a flash, and since Finland and Holland are two of the core funders of the ESM (RIP EFSF), it means that the Greek scheme of playing chicken with the Eurozone, has now been adopted by everyone else in the core. In the meantime, time for the Euro is running out with less than 24 hours left until midnight on Friday, and absent a complete consensus, the summit is as good as dead, something we expected a week ago and were heckled for by Bloomberg TV. Good luck Europe - use those 24 hours wisely.

Incidentally, to all the pundits who claim a universal downgrade by S&P of Europe's sovereigns and banks will have no impact, we say it now officially - you are all a bunch of idiots and hacks. Unless one has read every single bond indenture and loan doc of the affiliated entities, and knows for certain that there will be no springing rate hikes, collateral demands or margin increases in the case of a downgrade (which is the case in about 60% of investment grade and AAA credits), then all those spreading baseless propaganda and a false sense of calm should be fired immediately for spreading blatant disinformation. Please go ahead and tell AIG, whose collateral call waterfall started once its was cut from AAA by the rating agencies, AIG's shareholders, and America's taxpayers that that particular downgrade was irrelevant.

We are waiting.

As for the matter at hand, more from Telegraph:

As talks continued early into this morning, Germany remained opposed to both giving the ESM a banking licence - a move that would allow it to access funds from the European Central Bank – and to the issue of joint Eurobonds.

 

Since the broad plans include the establishment of a new financial transactions tax, a British veto was expected. Yesterday David Cameron again said he would have “no hesitation in vetoing a treaty” if it harmed the City, while British officials were said to be seeking a promise that “essential economic interests of non-euro member states are fully protected”.

 

Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Eurogroup bloc of finance ministers of eurozone states, said he would “not accept” summit diversions about what “the UK will not do what all the others have to do”.

 

However, Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy have urged agreement from the 17 eurozone nations. Mr Sarkozy said: “If we do not reach a deal, there will be no second chance.”

Either way, even if there is a compromise, it appears that another summit will have to be drafted post haste to iron out the details:

But efforts to make the ESM more powerful and responsive formed a key plank of the summit aims which will now have to be watered down if the rebellion is not assuaged.

 

Experts warned that France and Germany’s plans were inadequate, anyway.

 

Raoul Ruparel of think tank Open Europe said: “Rather than focusing their energies on the key issue at hand – avoiding immediate crisis – France and Germany have tried to secure another couple of changes which they are keen on, namely the harmonisation of corporate tax bases and the use of majority voting for ESM decisions. Unfortunately, this looks to have backfired by stoking the anger of Ireland and Finland… [creating] another obstacle to forming a lasting agreement.”

As for the final question, the one that scuttled the EFSF, of just who will provide the funding for the bailout, also known as the unsolvable math problem at the heart of the crisis, well, that is never going to get answered unfortunately. Because the answer does not exist.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
hardcleareye's picture

".....you are all a bunch of idiots and hacks."

 

".......you are all a bunch of FUCKING idiots and hacks."   fixed that for you.  If your going to rant do it right.;)

 

enjoyed the article.

iDealMeat's picture

WB7!!   quick!  You need this pic..

http://money.cnn.com/

 

edit: man I wish I had pic post privileges..

Ancona's picture

+1000 IDM Fucking appropriate if anything ever was!

love the internet!

i-dog's picture

Never fear ... there's another summit next week ... and the week after ... and the week after that.

Sarkozy to Merkel: "Can we make it Friday, so that I can have another long weekend with you away from the kids?"

fnord88's picture

anyone see the news about the blogger fined 2.5 million for saying mean things about an investment bank? Apparently bloggers are not journalists, and thus have no protection from defemation etc?

http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/judge-hits-blogger-with-us25-million-charge-for-not-being-a-journalist-20111209-1om8r.html

Are you next Tyler?

nmewn's picture

Who represented the poor schlub...Dewey, Cheatum & Howe? ;-)

slewie the pi-rat's picture

ya made me look, ya dirty crook
L0L!!!

turns out, she represented herself!
we can hope she'll do better before the appellate bench!

nmewn's picture

;-)

I rarely open a commenters link, unless I trust them completely. I didn't with that one either...just went with my gut instinct of (now I know her) being poorly represented.

Instead of the old law joke of "do we cheat them and how."..I now revise & extend my remarks to "did I cheat myself or what"...lol.

xela2200's picture

She had a fool for a client --> "Cox represented herself in court."

 

Sounds more like a case of slander. If she caused a financial loss, they have a right to be whole again. Only defense against it is if claim is true.

"Without the source, she couldn’t prove the information in the post was true — and thus, according to the judge, she didn’t qualify for Oregon’s media shield law since she wasn’t employed by a media establishment. In the court’s eyes, she was a blogger, not a journalist. The penalty: $US2.5 million."

 

She should had borrow a copy of the Unified Commercial Code.

fnord88's picture

Does that mean the Tylers would have to be able to prove everything they say? Sorry i'm from australia, and our laws are very different.

 

 

nmewn's picture

Maybe I can help.

Tyler(s) "source" everything put up and provides commentary/opinion. There is no nebulous black hole for a judge or prosecutor to say "cite your sources".

There is no law against someone having an opinion here.

Hope that helps.

IQ 101's picture

I like her, she's kind of chubby, you could take her jogging and in a few months you'd have a nice ride,

Does she have 2.5 mil, no, so it is just a number and the Mexi judge will be overturned on appeal and he will be unemployed when the collapse happens, soon, then he will die because he is a worthless commie half wit.

cool.

chump666's picture

There will be a million defence lawyers lining up to defend this and slam that 'bank' down for being a-holes and trying to act like a-holes.

 

Dr. Kananga's picture

"to all the pundits who claim a universal downgrade by S&P of Europe's sovereigns and banks will have no impact, we say it now officially - you are all a bunch of idiots and hacks."

Legal action is unlikely--when the inevitable happens, it will be very difficult to find said pundits, who will suddenly become rarer than hen's teeth. Same as finding those who knew for a fact there was WMD in Iraq, etc. "who? what? where? Iraq? never heard of it."

SirIssacNewton's picture

They can have all the summits they want, but it's time to let this EU construct fold already.  Yes...there will be pain, but the only way we might once again re-assembly ourselves is with the debt expunged from our financial system, the central bankers thrown into jail, and sound money returned as the basis of society.  The longer we put facing this and the more they try for the one world government...the more pressure of collapse will fall against...at least, that's what I hope it does.

Silver Bully's picture

Ironically enough, there is a video on kasota's drive-a-tank right below it. Great practice for the when TSHTF!

Atomizer's picture

Caption:

Sarkozy: I wonder what time Angela scheduled the circus midgets to arrive in our room this evening?

 

upWising's picture

And the dude NEXT to Sarc-cozy.  Is he flipping off Angie, The Sark, Europe, or is he just getting ready to pull out a BIG bugger?

upWising's picture

And the dude NEXT to Sarc-cozy.  Is he flipping off Angie, The Sark, Europe, or is he just getting ready to pull out a BIG bugger?

nmewn's picture

Caption contest?

The guy to my left is giving me an idea, how bout it? ;-)

hidingfromhelis's picture

"Not now, some clown from a wanna be banana republic is massaging my shoulders."

Mauibrad's picture

@iDealMeat  Yeah, the Greek finger.  Merkel also looks increasingly unhealthy.  She's really gained a lotta weight.

i-dog's picture

 
  "She's really gained a lotta weight."

 

It's all those lavish conference lunches and dinners every freaking week!

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I am astonished that in the context of the European Debt Crisis, I am yet to see a single article featuring the European PRESIDENT himself, President Herman Van Rompuy. I believe this is due as a matter of courtesy if nothing else. I admit that if you’re looking for cheap sound bites and glamorous press conferences, then President Van Rompuy is not for you. However, if you’re looking for a politician with strength of spirit and a quiet, determined and unwavering focus on his statutory duties, then I believe he is the perfect leader. Focus on leadership, not charm. Be part of the Rompuy Revolution!!!

kengland's picture

Futures are money green right now. Pretty funny considering "last minute summity mutiny" runs in this headline

Tyler Durden's picture

Futures were money green last night too. Pretty funny considering what happened after.

kengland's picture

Come on. Who are you kidding? THere was no headline yesterday starting at 18:43 hrs stating "

Last Minute Summit Mutiny Threatens The Future Of The Euro; And Why A Wholesale S&P Downgrade Of Europe Will Be Devastating"

 

I would expect to see maybe a wee bit of red with such a dramatic story. Are you suggesting arb here? Risk free? Too funny

Tyler Durden's picture

Since the headline reflects reality (if you were to read the post), it is a little confusing just what you are troubled by.

kengland's picture

No big deal man. The headline reads as if this thing is over. Reality is, no one believes it. Lots of bullshit flying at all ends

Cdad's picture

@ kenglad

You just witnessed the mother of all outside reversal days, with the S&P printing 1272 in the premarket, and trading straight down into a miserable close at 1231...and you are talking about 4 green aftermarket S&P futures points?  Obviously, you are just a touch on the obtuse side, and equally obvious is the certainty that you trade absolutely nothing...that you would make this case here.

Been on the wrong side of such days before...and surely I was not cocksure posting 'bout no nonsense futures blip after a day like this.  I call fail on your flat stupid comments here.

 

Chump's picture

Do you really think ZH headlines affect momo donkeys?  But anyway, why are you writing comments when you could be buying the market hand over fist?  Futures are green, right?  Go all-in derp derp.

kengland's picture

It's comes from the telegragh moron. Yeah...that's a pretty big venue

Chump's picture

Then why did you both quote and link to ZH's headline and article, moron?  I swear, it's almost like you're dumb enough to think DOW futures up 20 points at 8PM EST is significant or something.  Go all-in!!!11!1oneone!!

Carl Spackler's picture

Right on, Tyler.

The shadow banking network is working OT with its London pass-thrus to create the leverage -er, multipliers- needed to keep the Euro markets (and world, therefore) artificially inflated!

By the way, if there were integrity in this world, you should get a Pullitzer Prize for your article on the London-centered shadow banking system.

THAT was excellent work, bro.

 

 

 

unununium's picture

What could be better for US equities than the complete implosion of the eurozone?

Unless you are worried about US banks or something.

FinalCollapse's picture

MDB: Hahaha - here goes another KEYBOARD.

clymer's picture

One has to recognize MDB as the most comical troll since hamy. Love you MDB. Never change

Everybodys All American's picture

Lots of short man complexes still going on in the EU don't you think? Also,don't be astonished though because the prior European presidents were ignored by the rest of the world as well until they kind of stepped out of line so to speak. This time it is some what different because the guy Von Rumpey is just a figure head and really has no power over anyone. Kind of reminds me of a statue.

Heyoka Bianco's picture

Not really into piling on, but fuck it, as long as I'm not on the bottom of the pile: Rompers was previously PM of Belgium. Take one cursory look at that bassackwards, broke-dick cesspool (which still doesn't have a government), then you will see the definition of utter failure. Plus he's from Flemland.

upWising's picture

Mr. Eye:

You needn't candy-coat your commentary sir. You are amongst august, sober, clear-eyed adults here. As the "dudes" would say: "Let it rip."

regards,
Upwising

J 457's picture

Any guess how far SPX drops if S&P downgrades over weekend.  20-30-50pts?? 

Buck Johnson's picture

I knew this wasn't going to work and all they are doing is delaying the inevitable.