Last Minute Summit Mutiny Threatens The Future Of The Euro; And Why A Wholesale S&P Downgrade Of Europe Will Be Devastating
A day when everything that could go wrong for the euro and eurozone has just gotten worse. Hours away from the completion of the summit, whose failure will unleash a nuclear bomb of serial downgrades by S&P (let along expose frauds such as Sarkozy and Olli Rehn who claim, yet again, that the world will end a solution is found), The Telegraph writes that the summit is already in tatters after a rebellion and threats by Finland, Holland and Ireland are poised to scuttle the summit. Louise Armistead reports that 'Finland’s grand committee said decisions made by the ESM – the eurozone’s permanent bail-out fund set for launch in 2012 – had to remain unanimous, and not changed to the “qualified majority” that French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel have agreed. The Finns are backed by the Netherlands, which fears proposals to withdraw veto powers from the ESM is an erosion of democracy and would make it vulnerable to funding bail-outs without recourse. Meanwhile, the Irish want to block plans for the “convergence and harmonisation” of the eurozone’s “corporate tax base”. The rebellion is a serious threat to German and French plans to sign treaty changes today along the lines laid out in their joint letter on Wednesday. In it, the leaders said they hoped all 27 European Union countries would sign.' And since this is the only option to bypass a popular vote, the mere thought of which would destroy the Eurozone in a flash, and since Finland and Holland are two of the core funders of the ESM (RIP EFSF), it means that the Greek scheme of playing chicken with the Eurozone, has now been adopted by everyone else in the core. In the meantime, time for the Euro is running out with less than 24 hours left until midnight on Friday, and absent a complete consensus, the summit is as good as dead, something we expected a week ago and were heckled for by Bloomberg TV. Good luck Europe - use those 24 hours wisely.
Incidentally, to all the pundits who claim a universal downgrade by S&P of Europe's sovereigns and banks will have no impact, we say it now officially - you are all a bunch of idiots and hacks. Unless one has read every single bond indenture and loan doc of the affiliated entities, and knows for certain that there will be no springing rate hikes, collateral demands or margin increases in the case of a downgrade (which is the case in about 60% of investment grade and AAA credits), then all those spreading baseless propaganda and a false sense of calm should be fired immediately for spreading blatant disinformation. Please go ahead and tell AIG, whose collateral call waterfall started once its was cut from AAA by the rating agencies, AIG's shareholders, and America's taxpayers that that particular downgrade was irrelevant.
We are waiting.
As for the matter at hand, more from Telegraph:
As talks continued early into this morning, Germany remained opposed to both giving the ESM a banking licence - a move that would allow it to access funds from the European Central Bank – and to the issue of joint Eurobonds.
Since the broad plans include the establishment of a new financial transactions tax, a British veto was expected. Yesterday David Cameron again said he would have “no hesitation in vetoing a treaty” if it harmed the City, while British officials were said to be seeking a promise that “essential economic interests of non-euro member states are fully protected”.
Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Eurogroup bloc of finance ministers of eurozone states, said he would “not accept” summit diversions about what “the UK will not do what all the others have to do”.
However, Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy have urged agreement from the 17 eurozone nations. Mr Sarkozy said: “If we do not reach a deal, there will be no second chance.”
Either way, even if there is a compromise, it appears that another summit will have to be drafted post haste to iron out the details:
But efforts to make the ESM more powerful and responsive formed a key plank of the summit aims which will now have to be watered down if the rebellion is not assuaged.
Experts warned that France and Germany’s plans were inadequate, anyway.
Raoul Ruparel of think tank Open Europe said: “Rather than focusing their energies on the key issue at hand – avoiding immediate crisis – France and Germany have tried to secure another couple of changes which they are keen on, namely the harmonisation of corporate tax bases and the use of majority voting for ESM decisions. Unfortunately, this looks to have backfired by stoking the anger of Ireland and Finland… [creating] another obstacle to forming a lasting agreement.”
As for the final question, the one that scuttled the EFSF, of just who will provide the funding for the bailout, also known as the unsolvable math problem at the heart of the crisis, well, that is never going to get answered unfortunately. Because the answer does not exist.
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".....you are all a bunch of idiots and hacks."
".......you are all a bunch of FUCKING idiots and hacks." fixed that for you. If your going to rant do it right.;)
enjoyed the article.
WB7!! quick! You need this pic..
http://money.cnn.com/
edit: man I wish I had pic post privileges..
+1000 IDM Fucking appropriate if anything ever was!
I love the internet!
Never fear ... there's another summit next week ... and the week after ... and the week after that.
Sarkozy to Merkel: "Can we make it Friday, so that I can have another long weekend with you away from the kids?"
anyone see the news about the blogger fined 2.5 million for saying mean things about an investment bank? Apparently bloggers are not journalists, and thus have no protection from defemation etc?
http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/judge-hits-blogger-with-us25-million-charge-for-not-being-a-journalist-20111209-1om8r.html
Are you next Tyler?
Who represented the poor schlub...Dewey, Cheatum & Howe? ;-)
ya made me look, ya dirty crook
L0L!!!
turns out, she represented herself!
we can hope she'll do better before the appellate bench!
;-)
I rarely open a commenters link, unless I trust them completely. I didn't with that one either...just went with my gut instinct of (now I know her) being poorly represented.
Instead of the old law joke of "do we cheat them and how."..I now revise & extend my remarks to "did I cheat myself or what"...lol.
My post from another thread, but it's relevant here, also:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/and-scene-europe-agrees-disagree-next-summ...
2nd comment
She had a fool for a client --> "Cox represented herself in court."
Sounds more like a case of slander. If she caused a financial loss, they have a right to be whole again. Only defense against it is if claim is true.
"Without the source, she couldn’t prove the information in the post was true — and thus, according to the judge, she didn’t qualify for Oregon’s media shield law since she wasn’t employed by a media establishment. In the court’s eyes, she was a blogger, not a journalist. The penalty: $US2.5 million."
She should had borrow a copy of the Unified Commercial Code.
Does that mean the Tylers would have to be able to prove everything they say? Sorry i'm from australia, and our laws are very different.
Maybe I can help.
Tyler(s) "source" everything put up and provides commentary/opinion. There is no nebulous black hole for a judge or prosecutor to say "cite your sources".
There is no law against someone having an opinion here.
Hope that helps.
thanks
I like her, she's kind of chubby, you could take her jogging and in a few months you'd have a nice ride,
Does she have 2.5 mil, no, so it is just a number and the Mexi judge will be overturned on appeal and he will be unemployed when the collapse happens, soon, then he will die because he is a worthless commie half wit.
cool.
There will be a million defence lawyers lining up to defend this and slam that 'bank' down for being a-holes and trying to act like a-holes.
"to all the pundits who claim a universal downgrade by S&P of Europe's sovereigns and banks will have no impact, we say it now officially - you are all a bunch of idiots and hacks."
Legal action is unlikely--when the inevitable happens, it will be very difficult to find said pundits, who will suddenly become rarer than hen's teeth. Same as finding those who knew for a fact there was WMD in Iraq, etc. "who? what? where? Iraq? never heard of it."
They can have all the summits they want, but it's time to let this EU construct fold already. Yes...there will be pain, but the only way we might once again re-assembly ourselves is with the debt expunged from our financial system, the central bankers thrown into jail, and sound money returned as the basis of society. The longer we put facing this and the more they try for the one world government...the more pressure of collapse will fall against...at least, that's what I hope it does.
Ironically enough, there is a video on kasota's drive-a-tank right below it. Great practice for the when TSHTF!
Caption:
Sarkozy: I wonder what time Angela scheduled the circus midgets to arrive in our room this evening?
And the dude NEXT to Sarc-cozy. Is he flipping off Angie, The Sark, Europe, or is he just getting ready to pull out a BIG bugger?
And the dude NEXT to Sarc-cozy. Is he flipping off Angie, The Sark, Europe, or is he just getting ready to pull out a BIG bugger?
Caption contest?
The guy to my left is giving me an idea, how bout it? ;-)
"Not now, some clown from a wanna be banana republic is massaging my shoulders."
@iDealMeat Yeah, the Greek finger. Merkel also looks increasingly unhealthy. She's really gained a lotta weight.
"She's really gained a lotta weight."
It's all those lavish conference lunches and dinners every freaking week!
I am astonished that in the context of the European Debt Crisis, I am yet to see a single article featuring the European PRESIDENT himself, President Herman Van Rompuy. I believe this is due as a matter of courtesy if nothing else. I admit that if you’re looking for cheap sound bites and glamorous press conferences, then President Van Rompuy is not for you. However, if you’re looking for a politician with strength of spirit and a quiet, determined and unwavering focus on his statutory duties, then I believe he is the perfect leader. Focus on leadership, not charm. Be part of the Rompuy Revolution!!!
Futures are money green right now. Pretty funny considering "last minute summity mutiny" runs in this headline
Futures were money green last night too. Pretty funny considering what happened after.
Come on. Who are you kidding? THere was no headline yesterday starting at 18:43 hrs stating "
Last Minute Summit Mutiny Threatens The Future Of The Euro; And Why A Wholesale S&P Downgrade Of Europe Will Be Devastating"I would expect to see maybe a wee bit of red with such a dramatic story. Are you suggesting arb here? Risk free? Too funny
Since the headline reflects reality (if you were to read the post), it is a little confusing just what you are troubled by.
No big deal man. The headline reads as if this thing is over. Reality is, no one believes it. Lots of bullshit flying at all ends
@ kenglad
You just witnessed the mother of all outside reversal days, with the S&P printing 1272 in the premarket, and trading straight down into a miserable close at 1231...and you are talking about 4 green aftermarket S&P futures points? Obviously, you are just a touch on the obtuse side, and equally obvious is the certainty that you trade absolutely nothing...that you would make this case here.
Been on the wrong side of such days before...and surely I was not cocksure posting 'bout no nonsense futures blip after a day like this. I call fail on your flat stupid comments here.
Do you really think ZH headlines affect momo donkeys? But anyway, why are you writing comments when you could be buying the market hand over fist? Futures are green, right? Go all-in derp derp.
It's comes from the telegragh moron. Yeah...that's a pretty big venue
Then why did you both quote and link to ZH's headline and article, moron? I swear, it's almost like you're dumb enough to think DOW futures up 20 points at 8PM EST is significant or something. Go all-in!!!11!1oneone!!
+ 100
Right on, Tyler.
The shadow banking network is working OT with its London pass-thrus to create the leverage -er, multipliers- needed to keep the Euro markets (and world, therefore) artificially inflated!
By the way, if there were integrity in this world, you should get a Pullitzer Prize for your article on the London-centered shadow banking system.
THAT was excellent work, bro.
Link please?
Have to agree, that was good shit!!!
What could be better for US equities than the complete implosion of the eurozone?
Unless you are worried about US banks or something.
MDB: Hahaha - here goes another KEYBOARD.
One has to recognize MDB as the most comical troll since hamy. Love you MDB. Never change
Lots of short man complexes still going on in the EU don't you think? Also,don't be astonished though because the prior European presidents were ignored by the rest of the world as well until they kind of stepped out of line so to speak. This time it is some what different because the guy Von Rumpey is just a figure head and really has no power over anyone. Kind of reminds me of a statue.
I like Rompuy´s hair do.
Not really into piling on, but fuck it, as long as I'm not on the bottom of the pile: Rompers was previously PM of Belgium. Take one cursory look at that bassackwards, broke-dick cesspool (which still doesn't have a government), then you will see the definition of utter failure. Plus he's from Flemland.
Mr. Eye:
You needn't candy-coat your commentary sir. You are amongst august, sober, clear-eyed adults here. As the "dudes" would say: "Let it rip."
regards,
Upwising
Any guess how far SPX drops if S&P downgrades over weekend. 20-30-50pts??
I say, bring on the downgrade!!!
-John
http://johnu78.blogspot.com/2011/11/how-to-get-started-in-amateur-radio.html
I knew this wasn't going to work and all they are doing is delaying the inevitable.
yeah, that's why.
I'm surprised you didn't say to buy gold.
Neat. Bullish on war in Europe. People vs people vs government.
In other news :
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111208/169495062.html
Georgia becomes NATO aspirant state – deputy PM
http://en.rian.ru/world/20111208/169485481.html
Russia says Georgia's entry to NATO could lead to war
yes this is quietly becoming the 21st century Archduke Ferdinand moment, unbeknownst to most
Until the internet existed us little people had never before been able to predict their archduke ferdinand moment to any degree of accuracy. You may be on to something
"Russia says Georgia's entry to NATO could lead to war"
I'm sorry, but is that 'again' or 'still'? Maybe it's a leap-year thing.
No worries on the Euro, I called in and talked to Obama, he says he is monitoring the situation. Told me to watch the X-Factor tonight
Also in the UK Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is suggesting that the ECB is basically printing to support EU banks, rather than the governments directly ... hinting that the game for a while, will thus be to keep the banks afloat, who then in turn will use their cheap money to buy European government debt. Similar to the US Fed actually, and in line with the idea of stealth and sneaky QE ... hopefully not to 'infinity'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8944809/Market-rout-a...
Hope and Infinity.....it will all end and it won't be purdy.
They pulled the same crap when the voted to enlarge the ESFS. It will down and dirty tomorrow morning before the open. +3% on the SPY at the open
I thought Tyler pointed out the other day
That open interest in shorts on the Euro and longs on the dollar were back to the highs.
We'll see how that plays out.
Everybody and their brother is betting on:
1) Collapse of the Euro and Europe
2) Another 2008 crash in order to profit and get rich from on the short side.
A lot of "Angst" on Wall St. with the SPY down 10% from 3-year highs and up 85% since March 2009.
I have no doubt that TPTB is simply toying with the bears on purpose in order to set them up for a "surprise".
I don't think the G20 rumor yesterday was baseless. China has their delegate over there running his mouth about how all of this is short term. He won't be humiliated (and neither will Tim G). Goldman set everyone up. This isn;t going to happen when everyone is watching. Never does. The only issue now that's here that wasn't there in 08 is the rating agencies. This definatly puts a ball and chain on any large idea of inflation. That assumes though that they are operating without influence
Lets see how we trade mid-day/late-day tomorrow, word always seems to leak out early from the ex-Goldman gang and they always trade on it... I won't be suprised if word leaks out before US equities close and we see a few big rumors hit the wire right at 3:00-3:30 EST. Regardless, I'm calling it now: Monday will be a blood bath.
Panic on bitches.
A surprise before or after the SP settles at 850? No need to answer....
I reluctantly agree with robo. I just wish TPTB stop just giggling behind our backs, they should laugh out loud in our faces. I'm thinking S&P should upgrade the entire Eurozone and release the statement "Ha ha ha...f yoself". Let's just get it out there.
I have puts on the Euro and calls on gold. The way I see it either the Euro goes to shit or they print their way out of it and gold goes through the roof.
If there is someone who doesn't want a surprise .... it's gotta be Goldman and their ex-Goldman plants in Europe.
Yes, the sure thang is, short the Euro and all of Europe. Since Goldman has the control, make sure there is a disaster with the Euro and the ECB. They want a sure thang bet.
Then waiting in the wings is war in the Middle East and war in Europe. What better scenario for maximum profit.
Don't tell me that saving the Euro and Europe or kicking the can further down the road is a better plan for profit.
Use your knoggins on this.
After the debacle is all over ... start buying up everything on the cheap, just in time for war. Pretty easy to do as you are also covering shorts at this bottom juncture.
The same goes for shorting the US and long da Dollah. By the way, gold and silver will be pretty cheap on the pick-up at this bottom too.
THE PLAY OF THE CENTURIES! Don't tell me they are going to pass this up.
your post lacks factual detail, and appears to be firmly rooted in baseless hope.
let a brother guess; you voted for Barry
That rumbling you hear in the distance is Bernanke firing up the printing press.
Euro crisis? Wait! Look! Over there!!!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
Iran has one of our Preditor Drones.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/world/middleeast/iran-shows-us-drone-o...
Euro crisis? Wait! Look! Over there!!!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
Iran has one of our Preditor Drones.
Our guys done a real nice job of landing that drone so smoothly in Iran. I wonder why they would do that? LoL !!!
It's a Stuxnet delivery vehicle.
I was just watching the propaganda tape on that. I flying wing, shot down over Iranian airspace...with one small dent in it.
Remarkable...must have been one helluva net...lol.
Iran actually claimed that they downed the drone "electronically".
I can't imagine Iran could break the encyrption on it. It landing unscathed is an odd thing too.Or mostly unscathed.
By the same token I would be shocked if it didnt have some sort of self destruct. At least to fry the electronics. The craft itself isnt important for reverse engineering. Everyone can see what it looks like. The electronics are what's important. A few engineers should be able to reverse engineer that fairly quickly. The software would be troublesome though.
Strange.
Maybe they figure what amounts to a glorified remote control airplane is old hat by now. But its gotta have software to fix its flight and the hardware to make it possible.
I wonder if the calculations for the flight are done on the ground and transmitted wirelessly. Expcept the latentcy might cause issues in turbulence. Hmm fascinating.
Im sure though that given some time iran could certainly develop counter measures. So this could be important for them, and maybe even china. Given chinas success in the tech sector it may not be as intresting to them though.
"I can't imagine Iran could break the encyrption on it."
You and the rest of the DoD.
Another warning for the bears:
The TRIN closed at 5.1 today after reaching as high as 5.9 during the late day "panic".
And outright chain-selling in commodity stocks caused a -1344 TICK reading intraday.
That's never a good place to short stocks.
Now that's stupid thinking. I'm usually with you but technicals are worthelss here. After all, how many times do these metrics incorporate the probability of currency collapse? Probably not a lot is what I'm thinking.
Sure it is. When Jack and Jill went up a hill, they came tumbling down ( today )... what you're forgetting is that at the bottom of this hill is a cliff. It stops somewhere around elevation 666 for the S&P. Happy tumbling.
If TRIN really could tell, I would have retired 20 years ago.
robo, can you post something useful, like a 6 x 9 of the slutty looking blonde from the garnet hill catelog? You have that power.
Funny, I was just thinking the same thing. Didn't know about GH though. Thanx for the tip. Let's see.... categoties are, Women's fashion, Bedding & Home, Kid's clothing, Men' gifts.....
Hmmmm.... tough choices. If only it was so easy to choose whether to go Long or Short....
Enough of the idiocy, and let's get down to talking about the only logical solution: debt destruction and overall restoration of sovereignty rights. As for the US, we could do the same by ending the fed, destroying the debt, and reforming our fiscal/monetary regimes.
Distort familiar thresholds, refrain from reference to limits, impose restrictions on the newly undefined, and establish irrational means to measure that which is deemed acceptable under such conditions. Rinse and repeat.
Breaking: American Idol and Dancing with the Stars to begin airing IMMEDIATELY...and 24/7!!
mutiny on the non-bounty
"Mutiny Threatens The Future Of The Euro"
*LOL* Poor Kids, Load up on Stocks while it's cheap..
Tomorrow +400 on "DOW". ECB Printing press access granted..
GOLD going up slowly.. Stop whining, watch and learn..
ZeroHead :))) apocalypses delayed, ("Ohh not again") sorry, Bob.. ;)
lol...currency collapse and you want to be in common stocks.
What do you expect to be paid off in, more stock? I can see you waltzing into the local shit-n-git and plopping down your...oh wait, do they still issue stock certificates? ;-)
Mutiny!!!
way to go, BiCheZ!
As I read this I can't help but think of Nigel Farage's thorough shellacking of Von Rumpoy
And the quote I keep thinking of is who voted him into power?