Last Treasury Auction Before US Breaches 100% Debt To GDP Prices Quietly And Without Surprises
There is little if anything one can say about today's 5 Year auction. It priced at 1.055%, just above the record low 1.015% in September, and well inside the WI 5 Year trading at 1.08%, at a solid 2.90 Bid To Cover, compared to the 2.82 six auction average. The internals were boring, with Indirects taking down 49.3% of the auction, compared to the 40.5% LTM average, Directs declined modestly to 10.4% (in line with the 11.2% average), and Dealer take down unchanged from September at 40.3%. However, one massively notable thing about this auction is that it is the last one, probably ever, in which the US debt/GDP ratio is still under 100% following the auction. Adding today's $35 billion to yesterday's $35 billion in Two year bonds, brings total US debt to $15.010 trillion, with GDP still at $15.013 trillion (granted this number may be revised tomorrow), resulting in a debt to GDP ratio of 99.99%. Tomorrow's historical $29 billion in 7 Year bonds will take America into that uncharted territory of triple digit debt to GDP. But yes, the formal settlement of all bonds will not occur until Halloween, so we can celebrate on several days America's historic transition one step closer to insolvency.
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