Latest China Bailout Rumor Crumbles As EFSF Pulls Bond Due To "Market Conditions", France-Bund Spread At Record
Once again the desperation level is high as seemingly the core driver of overnight strength was a rumor that China would inject €700 billion in the EFSF, coupled with the even more desperate expectation that in a few short hours Ben will launch the LSAP version of QE: something that is virtually impossibly unless stocks drop to triple digits, and a fact that the market with its constant attempts at Fed frontrunning makes practically impossible. Yet this was good enough to tighten the all critical Italy-Bund spread to 422bps overnight (recall it hit the catastrophic 455 bps yesterday). However some news since then have put a major damper on sentiment, notably another recessionary data point from Europe, where the October Manufacturing PMI printed at 47.1 on expectations of 47.3, and German unemployment posting a rare disappointing miss printing +10K on consensus of -10k. Yet the nail in the coffin for today's European action was that the EFSF, which as we noted already reduced its €5 billion Irish bailout package to €3 billion on subpar market demand, pulled the entire issue citing the trusty old fallback "market conditions" confirming that not only is the latest China bailout rumor a complete fabrication yet again (as explained both here and here). What is more troubling is that the EFSF has set off on its path to raise €1 trillion+ with an epic failure and an inability to raise even €3 billion. That realization has finally spread to the market and not only is the Italy-Bund spread back to morning wides at 438, but, just as disturbing, the French-Bund spread is back to all time wides of 123 bps! That the European interbank liquidity market just collapsed again with ECB deposit facility usage hitting a three week high of €229 billion, coupled with Euribor-OIS spread jumping +6 bps in a week to 0.86% and just off the 3 year highs of 0.89%, is certainly not helping things. Look for more mayhem out of Europe as the G-20 meeting slowly unwinds over the next day, and the complete lack of organization in Europe is exposed for all to see all over again.
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