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Latest Congressional Budget Outlook For 2012-2022 Released, Says Real Unemployment Rate Is 10%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

What do the NAR, Consumer Confidence and CBO forecasts have in common? If you said, "they are all completely worthless" you are absolutely correct. Alas, the market needs to "trade" off numbers, which is why the just released CBO numbers apparently are important... And the fact that the CBO predicted negative $2.5 trillion in net debt by 2011 back in 2011 is largely ignored. Anyway, here are some of the highlights.

  • 2012 Deficit: $1.1 trillion; 2013 Deficit: $0.6 - yes, we are cackling like mad too...
  • Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.
    • This forecast is utterly idiotic and is completely unattainable unless the US workforce drops to all time lows and the US economy generates 300,000 jobs a month for 10 years
  • Needless to say, CBO assumes the best of all worlds in this meaningless forecast
  • But here is the kicker: "Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent" translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%. Thank you

Here is the CBO's alternative forecast which is a little closer to reality:

CBO has developed budget projections under an “alternative fiscal scenario,” assuming—instead of current law—that certain tax provisions that have recently expired or are set to expire (including most of the provisions in the 2010 tax act but excluding the Social Security payroll tax reduction) are instead extended, that the AMT is indexed for inflation after 2011 (starting from the 2011 exemption amount), that Medicare’s payment rates for physicians’ services are held constant, and that the automatic enforcement procedures of the Budget Control Act do not take effect. Under this scenario, deficits from 2013 through 2022 would average 5.4 percent of GDP, compared with the 1.5 percent in the baseline.

Some view on SSN and Medicare:

  • At $1.6 trillion in 2012, federal outlays for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other health care programs will make up more than 70 percent of mandatory spending (or 10.4 percent of GDP). Spending for those programs will rise by $1.5 trillion from 2012 to 2022— accounting for nearly all of the growth in mandatory spending over that period. By 2022, spending for those programs will represent more than 80 percent of mandatory spending and 12.8 percent of GDP.
  • CBO estimates that, under current law, outlays for Social Security will total $770 billion in 2012, or 5.0 percent of GDP. Over the next decade, spending for Social Security benefits will climb steadily (by an average of about 6 percent per year) as the nation’s elderly population grows and as average benefits rise. By 2022, CBO estimates, Social Security outlays will total $1.3 trillion, or about 5.5 percent of GDP.
  • At $856 billion, gross outlays for Medicare, Medicaid, and other mandatory federal programs related to health care accounted for just under 40 percent of mandatory spending (not including offsetting receipts) in 2011.6 CBO estimates that outlays for those programs will dip to$847  billion in 2012, or 5.5 percent of GDP, reflecting a decline in Medicaid spending. In CBO’s baseline projections, spending for health programs more than doubles between 2012 and 2022, rising by an average of nearly 8 percent per year and reaching $1.8 trillion in 2022. That spending is expected to represent 7.3 percent of GDP in 2022, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points from its share this year.

And some thoughts from the excel goal seek geniuses in DC on the collapse of the US welfare state:

Because of the aging of the population and rising costs for health care, the set of budget policies that were in effect in the past cannot be maintained in the future. In CBO’s projections for 2022 under the alternative fiscal scenario, gross outlays for all federal programs apart from Social Security, the major health care programs, and net interest are projected to be 7.8 percent of GDP, lower than in any year during the past 40 years and well below the 11.4 percent of  GDP that such outlays have averaged over that period. Yet the budget deficit in 2022 under that scenario is projected to be 6.1 percent of GDP. Therefore, to keep deficits and debt from causing substantial harm to the economy, policymakers will need to allow federal revenues to increase to a much higher percentage of GDP than the average over the past 40 years, make major changes to Social Security and federal health care programs, or pursue some combination of the two approaches.

So, if everything that is set to happen, happens, there will be "substantial harm" to the economy, and the CBO just happily assumes all these things will be fixed just in time? Brilliant.

But probably the most imporant part is the CBO's discussion on the labor force participation, and the general unemployment rate:

Participation in the Labor Force. The unemployment rate would be even higher than it is now had participation in the labor force not declined as much as it has over the past few years. The rate of participation in the labor force fell from 66 percent in 2007 to an average of 64 percent in the second half of 2011,  an unusually large decline over so short a time. About a third of that decline reflects factors other than the downturn, such as the aging of the baby-boom generation. But even with those factors removed, the estimated decline in that rate during the past four years is larger than has been typical of past downturns, even after accounting for the greater severity of this downturn. Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent. By CBO’s estimates, the rate of labor force participation will fall to slightly above 63 percent by 2017. The dampening effects of the increase in tax rates in 2013 scheduled under current law and additional retirements by baby boomers are projected to more than offset the strengthening effects of growing demand for labor as the economy recovers further.

Don't waste time reading this: none of what is predicted will actually happen. But at 165 pages it makes a good paperweight.

 

 


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Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Thanks for wasting my time and money.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

"Tomorrow, tomorrow, I luv ya, tomorrow, your only a day away!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yop62wQH498

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture


I trust that informed US citizens are analysing this data and making their own judgements right now, so that they can make informed and intelligent voting decisions in the coming elections. It is up to ALL Americans to make sure they monitor government spending and evaluate the statistical effectiveness of each spending program (discounted by opportunity cost) so that we can make objective voting decisions. This is how democracy should work. 

 

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes.  When the PTB need fiscal spending up, they use data points to justify it (10% unemployment).  When they are politicking and campaigning, they use data points to justify it (8%).  I will likely vote for no one, maybe I will write in Ron Paul.  At least that way DIEBOLD won't rape my vote.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Government decisions are trustworthy because they are monitored by a well informed public. The public are informed enough to monitor and evaluate all government decisions, however they are they are simply not informed enough to make the decisions themselves. It’s just common sense.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Robot.  MillionDollarBonus is a robot.  Terminate.  Terminate....

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

The CBO is just doing a projection assuming that this downturn is cyclical and there is another economic BOOM coming like has happened in the past 30 or 40 years.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Roger O. Thornhill
Roger O. Thornhill's picture

The madness continues. This cycle we are in is the one on the washer that says "full spin." The one at the end of the mini cycles that is finally necessary to spin the debt out of the system. We'll all be extremely dizzy at the end of that ride.

Also, what is astonishing is that The Romney and Newt puppets are being floated as an alternative to Obama. Sadly the media maintains this joke and the dumber percentage of the voters continues to fall for the nonsense. They don't realize they are being played for fools yet again. Soon to be poor fools.

Hint: The candidate the media hates the most is probably the one we need.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

This cycle we are in is the one on the washer that says "full spin."

 

that's the last stage before then "end of the cycle" at least my washing machine doesn't cycle continously but in the world of fiat...who knows.

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Indeed the madness continues.  I explore this at my blog.  "How Long (Can This Keep This Going On)?" is the new article there.  I also write about gold, review Barron's, and other material I hope will entertain my readers.  Would you like a look?  Gmail me at my name and assure me you will behave.  I make people jump through this hoop to keep out spammers & bots.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

True, unfortunately we are probably alot higher than 10%  http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

This downturn that its called, is nothing like we seen before. Other times there was less debt, and actually some industry/ invention that pulled us out. This time, there really isn't anything.

The green movement, well you see how that is going.

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:42 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

Com'on everyone, Milliondallarbonus is pulling everyone's leg with his comments.

Tyler we need a "this is a joke" and scarcasm buttons really bad!!!

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Ah Mr. H, you gotta love MDB. He (or she) has elevated sarcasm to high art, with the (usually) perfect tone to mimic the legion of sycophant politicians; asshat blowhard economic media talking  (and writing) heads; and ivory-towered academic hacks that write grade and high school Civics textbooks.

 

ZH *needs* MDB to remind us of why ZH is an important part of our real news day. I personally think MDB is a Tyler, he's too fucking good not to be.

 

NFP

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You know what else is common sense?  Rewarding savers and ending capital mis-allocation and mal-investment by allowing deflation and companies to fail.  Let the market pick the winners and loser, not the government.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Mis-allocation is a subjective term. You are simply assuming that all preferences are equally valuable in the market place. However I would argue that Nobel Prize winning economists have more valuable preferences than redneck Nascar fans. Yes, you heard me - I want resources to be allocated by PROFESSIONALS ONLY.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

The real unemployment rate, compared to the 1990s, is 11.2% by my calculations and 11.4% by Tyler's calculations.

http://usa-wethepeople.com/2012/01/real-%E2%80%9Cjuly-1999%E2%80%9D-unemployment-rate-11-2/

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

your not counting the 900 and something dead folks who voted in the South Carolina Primary in the caculation are you?

Tyler...where is the scarcasm button?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

MDB, Central planning always fails.  It can never suceed because markets are way more complex than any one person or government.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

shouldn't ten percent of congress go upaid to gain insight on the problem?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:06 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

LOL thanks for that.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Government decisions are trustworthy because they are monitored by a well informed public. The public are informed enough to monitor and evaluate all government decisions, however they are they are simply not informed enough to make the decisions themselves. It’s just common sense.

You are brilliant! and that is why so few get you.

Please Never Stop and Thank You!

God Bless You and Yours!

signed, Christian Constitutionalist

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

CBO - Congressional Bullshit Office

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

I believe you are struggling with this one M$B.  As I sense you are on the edge of an epiphany, let me help you out with the wording on this one....staying, of course, as close as possible to your original intent!

Government monitors the public because they are simply not trustworthy, and evaluates their decisions by being well informed of this monitored public's sense of just how badly it's decisions are perceived to be denuding them of their basic dignities and financial integrity, so as to keep the pace of their expropriation of the common man's wealth below the level that would provoke a sensible reaction on the part of it's victims.

Hey, don't mention it...It's just what any libertarian would do for another bud!

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 22:54 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

My judgement right now:  Most American Ignorati are too busy trying to keep putting food on the table to monitor the insane spending of the Govt.  Cranial-Rectal inversion has numerous cures, I suggest you investigate them!

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I will call CBO's "real" unemployment rate of 10% and raise it to 15%.

That's pure unemployment (no underemployment in that SWAG).

Throw in underemployment, with this groups ranks swelled tremendously by those formerly working for a company, but now considered "self-employed,"which would include people who want to work full time, but who are now only working 15 or 20ish hours a week, and I'd be surprised if U6 was NOT an honest 21%.

I'm not using any other methodology except for what I've read, seen and heard, melted into an amalgam, and then adding a 50% government 'confidence fairy' bullshit factor.

John Williams has better estimates (and higher estimates for the unemployment/underemployment rate) based on the use of a better sampling methodology based on the use of actual facts and arithmetic than mine.

 

#Green shoots. Summers/Winters of Recovery. Turning the corner. Save and/or creating trillions of jobs. Winning the future.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

You keep this scary stuff up and the kids are going to start wineing.

The only way THIS administration is going to get to these hopium unemployment numbers is if all the Irish, Itatilian, German, English, Spanish, Asian, French and Swedish immigrants that came here over the last 100 years all self-deport ( the new word for our consideration thanks to Kris Kobach the author of anti immigration legislation).

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

ETF

Ypu forgot "New Normal"

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

I think we can all agree. The unemployment rate is most certainly not what the government is telling us. We can see that with our own eyes!

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

They're not useless....if youre constantly long the market.

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Rest assured that the "real" unemployment rate is much higher than 10%. The calculus employed today is statistical jabberwocky: the true rate lies upwards of 15%.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

About 11.3%.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/

show them this when they are looking for numbers..

source and site your facts.. give them no where to go but to the truth.. dont make it about your ego make it about educating them.. so that we have more people on our side when the time comes.

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Well said JW in FL. The adversity for many Americans will come through one's own family. Careful not to get too 'aggggg--iiah--taaaaded' eh eh. The word I am mocking is 'agitated'.

If your stuffed into one of those places to force you to become 'un-aggggg-iah-taaaaaded' because your family is worried about you (your probably the provider of the family and losing your income is a thought too much for them to bear) then I have advice in advance. I went first into hades for you, I am a bit macabre like that in experiments. I am talking about medical facility. New wings of agitated people they can bill you for being agitated.

1) Be a gent to the ladies having to play a male role for too long. They will bend over backwards for you and such need guidance and are really lost in the maze of why or why not.

2) Such places are a treasure trove of people needing real guidance and love. Participate in every group and speak right up to lead them as the Spirit leads.

3) Get over it fast when your done, it was a $7k scam played on me. If this is the worst we see in America then it is recoverable. The facts are the facts and we can still go and demand them from ideaological countrymen now lost in the maze.

As an aside the research gave me insights for Pharmaceutical sector consulting I wouldn't have had otherwise. So the cost of the experiment is recoverable and what I will do with the Pharma's should reduce over-prescribing. Perhaps win-win-win. Stop being so chicken shit and squeamish about a couple weeks out of your life to help your countrymen.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment quintago
quintago's picture

You got some link love from Drudge ... you on the map now son...

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Holy crinkey. I was so confused when I clicked on that and was sent here. This is real bad for those that are behind like me. Time to get that 0% cc and buy all the Au and Ag I can. Hey, drudge people, don't worry. Everything is bone! Buy AAPL and FCBK! Forget coins so silly.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure mom and dad Im gettin straight "F's" right now and Im expelled from school, but next report card I'll surely be on the Honor Roll! Now hand me more allowance!

Signed, The Clowngress.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

This is AMERICA!  EVERY KID IS ON THE HONOR ROLL REGARDLESS OF GRADES! lol

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Next everyone will get trophies, too.

I knew a guy who wrote reports like this and he said he didn't know where half of the information really came from.

Instead of tea bags sent to congress, we should send a roll of toilet paper and tell them to wipe their mouth after talking.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

True Story:

 

At my old high school, the administration actually did away with the honor roll because parents of kids who weren't on the honor roll complained that it was elitist, discriminatory and excluded kids who weren't as academically inclined.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

That story sucks and I hate what it represents.

You know, in my day and even now, if someone told me I was crap, it made me try harder.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

yes, but you bear the scars of that trauma, you poort thing.  We have counselors standing by that can help you.  Visa, MC or PPO/HMO accepted.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

From movie, The Incredibles (2004)
www.eslnotes.com/movies/pdf/the-incredibles.pdf
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0317705/quotes

Helen: I can't believe you don't want to go to your own son's graduation.
Bob: It's not a graduation. He is moving from the 4th grade to the 5th grade.
Helen: It's a ceremony!
Bob: It's psychotic! They keep creating new ways to celebrate mediocrity, but if someone is genuinely exceptional...

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Ahhhhh.... Infinite growth all layed out with numbers and stuff... Shame most people still don't understand exponential growth that has and is going on...

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

This is how Ben Bernanke forcasts the inflation.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Baseline scenerio otherwise known as "mark to unicorn and rainbow scenerio".

Looking to call a book in the FY2013 scenerio. Whereby the full year deficit is ONLY $585B (assumes bush tax cuts expire). 

Over/Under for $1m. I will take the over.....looking for a speculator (cough dumb(est)money) to take the under. Anyone. Anyone at all?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Tuesday morning humor...

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

That... was kinda expected, no?

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

I really think the Harry Potter series has gone off the deep end.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Projections, exclusions, and assumptions...wish I could run my finances that way.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

most people use binoculars or a telescope to see far ahead, the cbo uses a kaleidoscope..................

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment connda
connda's picture

I think they use a Bohemian Grove brand Ouija Board.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

+1

(An empty cardboard, toilette-paper roll with a kool-aid package taped on the end is more like it.  This is the age of U.S. austerity, doncha know.) 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment connda
connda's picture

Sunshine, Roses. and Puppy-dog Smiles!  And they all lived happily ever after....

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

All data released by .gov will be sprinkled with fairy dust for ( re ) Election '12

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Producing doorstops like this keeps these useless, over-paid bureaucrats busy.

Your Government in action.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

This is so stupid that it is insulting.

Their baseline says that revenue will increase by 55% between 2011 and 2015 while spending will increase by 6.5%. I can only imagine the 100s of millions of dollars spent on this report to get these predictions.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:51 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

Thank you for your application, but we are only hiring believers at the moment.  Please feel free to re-apply at a later date.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

Since its all B.S. anyway, why not just forecast budget surpluses in the trillions starting 2013.  If your going to lie, make it a doozy.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And since they are usually off the mark by at least 50%, trade accordingly.

And 5.5 trillion in revenues in 2022??? Won't happen unless there's massive hyperinflation.

Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.

Possible. If they cook the books enough. And you know if there's one thing they are good at, it's cooking the books.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When your own approval rating is in single digits and protesters are filling the streets, just proclaim 'Shut up, you peasants have never had it better!'

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Peak debt + Peak oil = Peak Civilization. It's all related. The squeeze is on for the middle class. Health costs rising... the amount that your company is willing to pay falls. Any increase in pay that is connected with cost of living won't take into account food and energy costs... how crazy is that? The value of the things you own decreases, the cost of the things you need increases... wages stagnate (if you can stay employed). New normal.  Every organization, including the gov't, has been built on an expectation of infinite growth.  Oh well... reality sets in and our institutions will oscillate wildly and then fail.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXLJElH_OR4

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Sshhh!

You're going to piss of the unicorn sellers!

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The Smiths? Really? Take this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-fTbd8juzQ

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

A guilty pleasure from a different time.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I think that's a little dramatic...  it's at least the peak of this round, but I'm humble enough to say that I'm not omniscient and I strongly suspect civilization will have another rebirth...  like so many others.  (aside from the fact that "peak" is incredibly vague and could be measured in any number of ways).

The neat thing is that the whole system breaks under your scenario...  there is only so long that producers want to eat losses before they throw their hands in the air.  I know I always harp on this, but biflation is a temporary phenomenon...  and I realize getting assraped by a syphilitic donkey is also a temporary phenomenon, but we're talking about incredibly long term trends here.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Yes... civilization will have a rebirth.  It's anyone's guess as to the time between now and then.  I don't expect a smooth transition.  We need to reset the monetary system and find a new source of energy.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9cS7LaEAYY

I was going to raise your Smiths with some Morrisey.. but thats just wrong.

enjoy!

But if I were to be truthful.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3cpsfii5qE it would be more like that, I think.. I hope and Pray to be wrong.. but I cant find fault with my math or logic.. and no one has offered any real counter balance.. and as time goes on the whiplash to be suffered by all is just that much greater.

we are all fucked.. to an extreme that is un-precedented.

we are crossing over too or on the path of.. a New Extreme.. un-imaginable before and even after.

menawhile people run around laughing and giggling while Rome not only burns.. but the Laws that Built Rome..

The Constitution has been shredded to protect the way of life of John McSame.. not for the benefit of "We the People".

and the idiots sit and watch it all happen.. like its a dream.. like it is not really happening.. like there will be a happy ending.

DOOMED!

no. I am just kidding.. unicorns shitting a rainbow of fruit flavor will come and save us! 

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

10 years from now????...... WTF?? Did they price in that our public reported debt would grow 5 trillion just in 2010 from 2009?? I bet they missd that one. They squabble over 1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years in some illegal "supercommittee" but yet our reality is our debt grows 5 trillion in one year? Was that priced in?? You can't possibly know what will happen in 5 years or 10 in this new bizzaro expenonetial debt curve world. A six year old can tell you that. 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Maybe not a 6 year old, but a 16 year old can, when presented the right information.  I told this story here... over Christmas I went "home".  One evening conversation turned towards our debt based monetary system.  20 adults not grasping what I was saying... my closest friend's step son... a 16 year-old thinker, not yet totally corrupted by the system says, "so debt must grow exponentially, by definition.  So we're basically focked".  

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Zen mind, beginners mind.  An open mind is worth all the gold in the world.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

The thing that to me is remarkable... it's not even a tough concept to grasp.  You almost have to want to not think.  There is supporting evidence everywhere if you were so inclined to want to challenge the premise, but people don't even get that far.  

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

How do I get a job for this CBO clown show? Must be fun to sit around all day making up numbers and having Congressmen pat you on the back for a job well done.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

They are so full of shit, they think that interest on the debt will stay at all time lows till at least 2015.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's easy to keep the interest rates low when you have a printing press it's the cost of everything else that comes into question.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Well that's bullish, I thought it was closer to 15%

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

The can is becoming an immovable object.  I pitty the dumbass that tries to kick it when the Baby Boomers really begin retiring in mass.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Then the ponzi ends.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't see any budget item for our upcoming wars in Syria and Iran. Must be an oversight or an off balance sheet expense.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I think we can all agree that the biggest BS numbers in there are the revenues numbers.

They basically say that revenues will go up by 50% by 2013. Mwahahahahahhaaha

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

Idiocracy

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Shut UP! 'Batin'!

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

2012 Deficit: $1.1 trillion; 2013 Deficit: $0.6

CBO predicts Obama will lose the election.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Romney has no job, makes $57,000 a day...and pays 15% in taxes. Regardless to Obama's record - I guarantee Mitt has an uphill battle beyond the GOP base.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It our culture people vote for who the envy; who they want to be.  There are millions of Americans that look at Mittens and think, 'He's like me!  Only richer....but maybe one day I will live like him if I elect him as my POTUS.'  This is how it worked for Obama.  People thought if they elected him, he in turn would make everyone a cool cat, like him.  Same with movie stars and rock stars.  Most people leave the theatre thinking, 'I like Pitt.  He's sorta like me.'  Then they adopt his manuerisms, lingo, etc.

This is why Paul has a following, but also can not connect to everyone.  As much as he makes sense, some people don't want to think there are problems.  Elect Paul, and we are saying there are problems.

'There are no problems, except that I had to move my tee time back half an hour!'

'Yuck, yuck!'

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

NO ONE LIKES THE TRUTH! SO!! shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

NO ONE LIKES THE TRUTH! SO!! shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

I'm not saying they're right, just saying a new POTUS is the only way to get to 0.6 trillion deficit in 2013.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Ron Paul is your only hope for that mate.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I think you're confused.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

U6 is 15.2 but the media never mentions U6. Nor does it seem to care when the Fed changes how it calculates inflation.  When you mention these things - you're marked as nut looking for conspiracies.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” - Joseph Goebbels  

We quite clearly live in some version of the Matrix.  

Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media.
Noam Chomsky

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

We've known BLS statistics aren't exactly accurate for years.  Well. they're accurate if you omit the proper data. 

And we all know if you used to be able to afford porterhouse steak, but have to switch to hamburger because of the price increases to porterhouse steak, there is no inflation.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"  translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%. Thank you"

paging Johm Williams at ShadowStats please....


Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

"The budget deficit will narrow to $1.08T in FY 2012 from $1.3T last year, while unemployment will average 8.9% in calendar year 2012, the CBO predicts in its outlook for FY 2012-2022. The office also forecasts GDP growth of 2% this calendar year. [U.S"

This is how Seeking Alpha presents it....sounds good......its only statistics....

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

yo can any fellow ZHer help me with this. some weeks ago i read an article on this website abt the debt ceiling and how last yrs drama could be recreated before this election.

 

i told all my housemates this and they really dont think it can happen. now im not so sure what i read and i cant find that old article.

can some1 out there provide me some info on how the debt ceiling could be reached this autumn or whenever u think suitable

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Just search "Debt Ceiling zerohedge" or "debt ceiling + before election zerohedge" in google and you should find a whole slew of articles.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=debt+ceiling+%2B+before+election+zerohedge

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

I think, just think mind you - the last deal gave Obama two or three raises that can not be opposed. I'm sure someone here can give you a better answer.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

"10%" OH GOD!!! THE HORROR!!!

Let's try against everyone without one of those... fuck... what are they called again... you either have one or you don't... and that means your unemployed... oh yeah -- A JOB. If you don't have A JOB then you are UNEMPLOYED. "10%" is enough propaganda for one day, seriously. It's more like 23%, bitchez.

http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1325867449

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment westerman
westerman's picture

Unemployment is 3%, Steel production is up 50%, wheat production is up 70%. Comrade Obamas 5 year plans are working perfectly and Americans have never been happier. Counterrevolutionary grumps have been put in labour camps.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Shouldn't they change their name to the Continuing Resolutions Office?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

10%: that's very funny. Now why would anyone put 10% and "real unemployment rate" in the same zip code, never mind sentance... Are they that stupid, or that "go along to get along"? Probably both.

Either way, they help disseminate lies and enable ongoing fraud. This is just more fiction from Team Tyranny. Overlapping fields of fire to reinforce a mountain of lies.

This report is just from a different group of full-time liars and crime enablers than those at the Bureau of Bullshit Labor Statistics, and it too is worthless bullshit. CBO? Oh please.

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

nah uhhh... that would mean obama lied and the economy died to borrow a national socialist term used towards the last admin of liars and jokers. obama a liar? i gotta check msnbc to see if hell is ...

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

I would hazzard to guess the real number is 16 - 21% IMHO. It could actually be higher but that's my best WAG.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

I don't see these quotes in the actual document linked.  Am I missing something?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

CNBC Headline: "Gold back in Vogue"  

- when will journalism be?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment bpj
bpj's picture

ZH, Limbaugh is talking you up right now

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

There goes the neighborhood ;-) - Ned

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment thursday0451
thursday0451's picture

Hey Tyler, I think you've got a slight typo. The sentence that reads "And the fact that the CBO predicted negative $2.5 trillion in net debt by 2011 back in 2011 is largely ignored." should read 'back in 2001' not 'back in 2011.'

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

Congrats ZH, linked from DrudgeReport, now just to get on the Homeland Security watch list.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Laddie
Laddie's picture

Immigration whether refugee resettlement or the various visas, legal immigration, family reunification, lottery, etc, not counting illegal, are going to make job finding VERY tough for those who are not Bilingual and Bicultural as the private and government hiring types tell me.

One young man in Miami after repeatedly being turned down for jobs because he was not DOUBLE BI committed suicide. Well he was just a white guy so it doesn't really  matter.

A Young Refugee Searches for a Place in Idaho’s Reshaped Economy

2005, 95 percent of the office’s employable caseload found work.  That dropped to 55 percent in 2009.  It has since gone back up to more than 70 percent

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Whew!  Good thing we didn't hire that whiney Quitter.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

We're spending our way into prosperity.


DEBT LIMIT - A GUIDE TO AMERICAN FEDERAL DEBT MADE EASY

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Patrick in Michigan
Patrick in Michigan's picture

Nice....

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment JimboWHO
JimboWHO's picture

"And some thoughts from the excel goal seek geniuses in DC on the collapse of the US welfare state:"

Only ZH is capable of this.  'Plus' a lot!

 

JJM

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment JimboWHO
JimboWHO's picture

Brilliant

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

clearly we need more QE (LOL), so that reduced labor force will b forced to work for slave wages and then won't count as unemployed

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 18:29 | Link to Comment AndrewJacksonsGhost
AndrewJacksonsGhost's picture

If it was not mentioned in the article or if no one in the comments mentioned it, if you take the workforce number when Obama became President and you use that for figuring out the lower U Unemployment number, unemployment would be above 11%.

By the way, has anyone confirmed that stealth QE has started yet?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 18:32 | Link to Comment AndrewJacksonsGhost
AndrewJacksonsGhost's picture

Ooops, I skipped that last part. They did mention it but they lied on the additive percentage. When I did the math, it came out to above 11% unemployment. An additive 2 1/2% not the 1 1/2 they gave.

By the way, welcome to ZeroHedge Drudgeees.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment AndrewJacksonsGhost
AndrewJacksonsGhost's picture

Now just think, if the progressive agenda of genocide was not installed 5 decades back, the Federal government would have had an additional 50 million people to enslave to the debt. Of course everything being the same, 47% of those would be living off the other 53%.

 

Oh the futile hope of changing the direction of this leviathon, back to stacking by the way.

 

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