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Latest Market Frenzy: Sell Europe, Buy Apple
The divergence between credit markets and equities accelerated today in Europe (and the US) as Senior and Subordinated financial credit spreads have increased dramatically in the last week. While risk has risen over 25% in financials, European stocks have gone sideways since the NFP print. The Subordinated financials spread has risen the most (in percentage terms) over the last 4 days since Nov2010 - and of course the broad equity markets are flat. It would seem that every trader and their mom is selling European financials and buying AAPL.
Bank stocks in Europe are starting to crack a little but there remains a gaping divide between equity and credit perceptions of risk.
The largest 4-day jump in risk for subordinated financials credit in 14 months!
EURUSD is back under 1.31, US credit has retraced to pre-Samaras levels, Treasury yields are at their lows of the day, European sovereigns are all leaking wider (+19-20bps in Spain and Italy) and 7-9bps in the rest. Gold and Silver are inching higher (ignoring USD strength for now) as Copper sldies and Oil outperforms.
It seems that as we tongue-in-cheek noted above, that investors are indeed selling Sub financials and buying AAPL...risk on? or not?
Chart: Bloomberg
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China to confiscate all iPads being imported AND EXPORTED:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-apple-proview-idUSTRE81E0BE...
It has already started, as Amazon pulls iPads from China:
http://www.penn-olson.com/2012/02/15/amazon-china-suning-ban-ipads/
Bullish! Buy apple! Buy buy buy!!!
it's not that big of a deal. Proview may own the iPad mark in china, but they don't anywhere else. Injuctive relief of the type they're asking for is unwarranted.
As proview hasn't actually used this mark in commerce, their claim is pretty fuckin weak even under US law. And, because everyone associates iPad with Apple, they can take the mark on that basis alone. Marks are not real estate that you can just sit on in perpetuity; they either have secondary meaning in terms of source association or they are subject to dilution.
For example, aspirin used to be a registered mark of bayer, refrigerator was a registered mark, margarine, as were many other terms that ended up being ruled generic and usable by anyone. You can lose your marks if people come to associate them with other things.
ummm...you were sayin?
just like G. Lucas still owns the TM for Droid....
easy...stop selling it as iPad in china. Proview doesn't own the mark anywhere else. They have no legal basis to stop exports to places Apple owns the rights to the mark.
This is all IF proview isn't just trying a shakedown. The shit will sell if it has the apple on the back, they could put iTurd on the front and it wouldn't change a thing. make the foxconn workers get right on it this minute and have it done by the next minute; aapl doesn't care how many jump, they are like the irish in the 1840s
uh oh...looks like last one out is a rotten egg
Also might want to keep your eye on copper .. and the pm's for a minute too (silver/copper correlation) or hedge your physical anyway... unless the PPT steps in for appearance sake...
http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/
iThink that's full retard.
i can imagine events that are "more" full retard... but THIS actually comes pretty close to full retard!
how short-sighted can investors be? if the "thing" they're running away from collapses, the new "thing" they're buying into will go down with it!
only if anyone sells. If no one splashes, the life boat wont sink.
Gotta be bullish.
But but but, AAPL's valuation is so low. The cash! the dividend, the split!, Jobs will rise from the grave and rewardd all shareholders with immortatlity.
ps. Buy AAPL.
You know, we grow up thinking that rich, powerful people are smart... but they are NOT.
I wonder if Reggie put his money where his mouth was and shorted Apple?
Apple. 80 billion in cash and set earning for at least the next 2 years. Nice place to park your money till the sh!t storm subsides. AAPL, the Hedge Fund quasi-bank of choice
Fuck the valuation argument....the stock is about to see a nice whiplash down....the market always fucks greed....eventually
Tell that to my put positions since 470. I've been humbled Again
Retired soccer moms are selling puts while the pros are buying them. Bernanke's last laugh on finance.
Forest gump would be billionaire in another few years.
Jenny, what'sa billion mean?
"I'm not a smart man..but i know what fruit is"
Captain Dan was the genius there.
Too many people on one side of the submarine. U-Boat. Whatever.
Some analysts put a 600 price target for the next 12 months, but their was a typo. He meant to put the next 12 trading days not 12 months. UNDERVALUED
AApl to save the world; it will decide to build its european Ipads in...Greece!
At this rate (1-3% per day), aapl will be a 1500 $ stock by year end.
1.5 trillion market cap at that level. thats just ridiculous YESWEKAHN, Maybe 1000 by year end with a trillion market cap, Be realistic would ya
Is it just me or, isn't the VIX suppose to drop while trending higher in the underlying index?
Not when the smart money is getting nervous, basically it's a "quiet" way of fading the rally.
I think you are seeing massive capitulation today from:
1) Peak Oilers stuck in OIH
2) "Endgamers" stuck with too much gold and silver
3) Inflation Worshippers stuck with too many resource stocks
4) Institutional investors fed up with John Hathaway and other gold fund managers
5) Disgruntled PM investors sick and tired of General Jim, Alf, and King World News
Basically what is happening is that every one of these guys is finally throwing in the towel and piling 100% of all available cash into AAPL.
I hope you're right. If so, it's almost time to load up on the puts.
with the dow down 22 points...yeah, um, capitulation totally dude
AAPL just went down 15$. If everyone is 100% in it, it is time to sell.
Haven't you heard, AAPL is the new risk-off trade. It has replaced Treasury bonds as the ultra safe place to park money during a global crisis.
After all, what could go wrong to a company that sells high end toys in a global economic collapse.
I have talked to a few hedge fund managers who see AAPL these days as a better "parking lot" than Money Market/ Treasuries. BRK used to have the same function until Uncle Warren started gambling derivatives and ceding control of the portfolios to younger "talent."
dude, people in the 3rd world crave this shit more than LV.
Apple is a brand now like marlboro or nike or coca cola. People want this shit everywhere. I know a ton of people earning 3rd world wages who are still buyin iCrap.
I guess it never occurred to you that there was a Rest of World out there, eh?
Right now there are people in places like colombia scheming how to get victoria's secret lingerie, Tiffany jewelry, and iCrap into their countries without getting jacked by customs.
and they buy the counterfeit versions.
The only difference between boyz and MEN is the Price of their Toys.
Apple makes some of the best Toys - but ...
Where is the iGirl?
May have to start with an iMadam.
Cuming soon at an Apple store near you!
RIP. Steve.
Where is the iGirl? Right here -- she's called the Windup Girl:
http://windupstories.com/2010/09/05/hugo-award-for-the-windup-girl/
Guess we better all hope there are no supply chain disruptions of any kind. That's the kinda thing that could hurt AAPL.
So you sell where Consumers are going bust as they lose their jobs to Chinese imports and buy stakes in the corporation sitting on piles of cash by employing Chinese slaves to make the imports that are putting Europeans (and Americans) out of work. TRUE. That is how Financial Markets noaways work - didn't AKIO MORITA call it Casino Capitalism ? Who listened ?
go ask the Chinese workers if they're "slaves" or volunteered their labour to work there
try gathering some facts before you load up to talk out your arse
we can't all sit on a sofa living off other peoples taxes like you moaning worthless lefties
free to work, free to quit, free to jump
exactly Trav
I'd rather change jobs than top myself ..wouldn't you?
WDYJSTFU about lefties, fool. Ignorant troll - get back under your overpass.
Skat -
your Av looks like a hobo and you talk like a hobo (on meths)
pencil yourself in for a brain by-pass shagface
If anyone is that worried about working conditions overseas, the they should go naked because the conditions are considerably better in the Foxconn plants than they are in most garment factories.
Maybe revoking Most Favoured Nation Status would be a good start. Funny how US goods have higher tariffs in Europe than Chinese goods....but Americans just love the Chinese and are giving them the air they breathe
Zero Govt is the latest apologist for the Chinese Communist Party -
we can't all sit on a sofa living off other peoples taxes like you moaning worthless lefties
This is the true voice of capitalist lackey lickspittles in hock to Chinese Communist Dictatorship
you worthless tossers go from fantasies Apple sub-contractors are "slave labour" to me being in with Commies... all you paying members of the Democrat Party that have lied, robbed and ruined America
Go build a business fuk face
when you tossers can run a hotdog stand for 2 days without going bankrupt then you can invent whining garbage about other peoples brilliant businesses
alternatively just do your usual: sit on your fat worthless arses and watch the John Stewart 'Rent-a-Fat-Leftie-Gob' Show and feel like you're 'in' and 'smart' as he takes the piss out of what's left of America that hasn't been run into the sewer by the Democrats (not much left/ie is there?)
We shall see what heppens when the Fair labor Assc. or whateverthefuck they are finishes looking at the Foxconn working conditions. If all the Chinese workers get a raise, then kiss the Apple FAT profit margin goodbye, and the stock will suffer.
the labour content in Apple (any) products is minimal
you anti-Apple dimwits just keep sucking on air
minimal? they are put together by freaking hand. How is that minimal, the only thing minimal is the slave like working conditions.
Fuck apple, all they do is put existing tech into new shiny wrappers. big deal. I have been using tablet computers for a freakin decade.
not "fuck Apple" dipshit... fuck you ...and the rest of you muck raking tossers
it's none of your fucking business, nor do you know what the fuk your talking about "slave labour" ..they volunteered got it? ..something about facts you don't understand? Hard for your peanut sized brain to grasp a bit of reality?
Chill out already.
i'm chilled, in fact i'm barely warmed up
..hard to having an argument round here as all the anti-Apple toerags are firing blanks from pea shooters ..this is less a debate than slaughter at a turkey shoot
the whining shit stirrers of America: running on empty for decades (Union membership's on a downer too)
All the Chinese factories know well ahead of time when the inspections take place and hide the ugliness well beforehand in trap doors and secret closets.
yeah, it's alot like the Govts unemplyment figures... more fancy window dressing and massaging than a Thai whorehouse
only difference is the Chinese that work there do so willingly.. while half the real jobless in America "just fuking disappear" when the inspectors do a body count
Headline from the Onion a few years back "Recession-Plagued Nation Demands Another Bubble to Invest In" well we got it....
Please forgive my English, but are these people fucking stupid?!
DavidC
If you are referring to the bloggers and their comments, I think that some are shills, some use different accounts to talk with themselves, some are looking for the latest news flash, some think that the periodic chart has only one true fiat metal, some are bigots, some are prideful sheeple, some are up-fucked, and some are stupid. Otherwise, I do not know - or not.
only the commercial brain works (productively)
makes sense to invest in good corporate equities and not shit political 'safehavens'
Apple v Govt Bonds : Zero Contest
So if I tried to say that the bubble being created in this company's equity price is akin to a certain flower-induced bubble of long ago, would that be like comparing apples and tulips?
And, will an share of Apple stock a day keep the doctor away?
Inquiring minds need answers to these pointless questions.
the Tulip Bulb mania had everyone and their cat investing in the euphoria
we're not there with Apple, nor Gold for that matter, but there is a peak of delusion in US Govt Bonds
...we should ask Blowjob Ben why he's so hysterical on rotten debt
Everyone already invested in Apple and ate their cat. So if you were waiting for the cat to invest in Apple before shorting you missed the boat.
Looks like some short interest and put buying creeping into AAPL at $525 today.
IMHO, We are close to the peak for Apple Stock.
It will shortly be a case of food or the Apple given the looming recession. And this is one Apple that a human cannot eat.
Most people forget that once can sell stock only in an uptrend.
This is likely to be their last chance.
Short Leggs Mason.. long teargas and gold.
I still think last Quarter's blow-out earnings were largely due to SJ memorialization. The 4S was not such a great product release / refresh. The whole divi issue will take lots of time to settle, and an iPad 3 is must meh, nothing really revolutionary. Cook put out the hopes for an iTV yesterday at the GS conference as well.
Yeah - Apple TV. Right now it is simply a little $100 wireless box with an HDMI interface to your TV. Three-button remote, so small it is easily lost for days.
The current implementation absolutely sucks, at least from an economic viewpoint - EVERYTHING costs, from .99 to serious money for theater films. NO freebies come with the box.
True, the interface is absolutely beautiful, far better than the Sony wireless TV, especially for Netflix. But everything costs AppleBux, through the Apple iTunes store and similar ripoffs.
About the only economic reason to buy the gadget is having a subscription to Netflix / Hulu / Amazon Prime and NEVER purchase any content from Apple again.
WTF ever happened to advertising - supported content.
AppleTV = PayTV and very little else.
There was a recent report out of Australia regarding a stolen USB dongle with an Apple TV Logo that provided access to several hundred TV channels on a pirate network. Hmmm
http://www.itnews.com.au/Gallery/288816,photos-apple-tv-pirates-raided.a...
lets see, with europe in recession, the us to follow, followed by the world in an imploding economic shitstorm, yeah sure it only makes sense to invest in some shiny consumer product company.
up is down. but then again, lemmings all fall off a cliff for a reason.
And SCENE?????
How sweet would it be if ZH called the top in AAPL here?
Get red bitch!
Something everyone is forgetting about Apple and their expansion into China: The Chinese can fabricate their own cheap IPads, and there is nothing the US government can do about it because they are China's bitch. Just saying. Knock off 40-50% of this expected Chinese growth and you have an overvalued stock.
As this market does not move on technicals or fundamentals I decided to wait to put on shorts till AAPL hit 525. It is no wonder so many professionals have walked away in disgust when a pull trading idea out of your ass strategy works better than decades of experience.
I agree 100%. It's a clear time to short QQQ, but I have to put in limit orders at a 40% reduction (on the option price) just because of the illogical robot momentum. I imagine this market irrationality is killing option sellers, because buyers (if they are wise) will put in low bids in order to price in this ridiculous rally.
alg9o's doing their thing on the s and p along the speedline.
Bernanke will justify QE3 with this tiny drop,
Do the Greeks/Italians/Spanish/The Geese that don't fly - know that AAPL is not a fruit that they can eat?
What happened to Apple at noon today?
Bad algo/flash crash.
Seriously though, the market is set up perfectly for it.
Oh this is so awesome!
A ZH headline says buy apple (not accusing Tyler of a buy recommendation) and the mother fucker reverses instantly!
I told a friend, they are out to make every investor/trader look like an idiot. They will stop at nothing. Inflation will eat away cash so they know most have to play. You can't win this game. Everyone will be fucked by the time it is all over. I don't give a shit what your strategy is.
Those who lose the least gain the most, though.
I'm a successful American! I'm not as broke as you!
Lol
I agree with Devo! Lets whip it good!
I know it's counter-intuitive and ridiculous, but that is actually a valid form of wealth transfer.
Trade your gold and silver for Apple shares, bitchez
Who wants to get onboard my new startup? It's called 'Orange'--we make pocket-sized Suanpan on these hipster frames. It'll sell like sliced bread when the lights go out.